[East Asia] - Year of the Plague

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  • Void SlayerVoid Slayer Very Suspicious Registered User regular
    We are also seeing now, and will see in the future, more refugees and refugee or concentration camps of all kinds. That could lead to a nasty virus going even further as it burns through vulnerable populations to spread even more. Coupled with government inability or inaction and it could get really bad since these were some of the same conditions that pormoted past deadly epidemics.

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  • GiantGeek2020GiantGeek2020 Registered User regular
    We are also seeing now, and will see in the future, more refugees and refugee or concentration camps of all kinds. That could lead to a nasty virus going even further as it burns through vulnerable populations to spread even more. Coupled with government inability or inaction and it could get really bad since these were some of the same conditions that promoted past deadly epidemics.

    Climate change is going to be real great for this.

    Famine and Draught? Great for diseases.
    Mass Migration? Great for diseases.
    War? You guessed it.

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  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Zavian wrote: »
    KetBra wrote: »
    Zavian wrote: »
    VishNub wrote: »
    You're gonna have to do some work to separate out a cultural "that is disgusting" reaction from a medical "that is dangerous" assessment.

    Chinese cultural acceptance of exotic bush meat is a huge problem leading to the extinction of many species including my favorite. It's disgusting and should be banned

    Sustainable fishing, farming, and hunting are huge and important issues. They are not necessarily (and probably) not related to the current viral outbreak in China. Even if you banned the sale (and it was completely actually eliminated) of 'exotic' meat you probably would still be having routine outbreaks coming from these live animal markets in China because it's the conditions the animals are in which facilitate the spread of disease between animals and humans that is the problem.

    Conflating the issue and posting clickbait showing the consumption of an animal that may or may not even be endangered doesn't seem useful.

    Bats are a known vector for diseases and are a large part of the exotic bush meat trade in China, so no, I don't think it's conflating the issue.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat-borne_virus
    https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-25220-9_12#Sec9

    There's also the issue of bat physiology resulting in pathogens that are build to survive some of the tools our immune system has on had to combat illness. On such defense is temperature, your body usually amps up it's temp to kill pathogens by making the environment to warm. Problem with stuff from bats, is that our body can't hope to raise it's temperature high enough to kill it because bats are living in conditions where their little bodies are subjected to higher temperatures than what the human body can pull off.

  • BloodySlothBloodySloth Registered User regular
    Bats are a pretty famous natural reservoir for some pretty tough diseases, including rabies, ebola, and (importantly here) coronaviruses. I believe they were implicated in the SARS outbreak.

    Obviously it's not known if eating bat soup specifically is the cause of this outbreak, but it's not a stretch to consider that eating undercooked bat meat could be involved, or, barring the consumption itself, the act of holding them live in markets for food use.

    Mayabird
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    I'd say it's looking more as if this disease, if it spreads, will behave like a particularly virulent strain of flu, targeting the usual range of people who the flu kills and sickens severely and sadly killing and sickening a larger number of them. However, it doesnt look, based on transmission patterns to be anywhere near as infectious as flu is (no transmissions overseas known yet, whereas their have been exposures, heck, people have been on planes with people with the virus)

    Of course, the virus may mutate, or something else could change, but, there's not any indications yet that there is anything false coming out of china. This virus probably kills like 6% of people over 60 it infects, with fewer infections and fewer deaths the younger you are. This is terrible, and China is taking serious precautions in a way which is responsible, but, the flu probably kills 1% of people over 60 it infects.

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Did I not tell people during the Ebola outbreak not to eat bats? Because I could've sworn I was telling people not to freaking eat bats. That's two major disease outbreaks...

    Anyway, since I am the disease-thread maker apparently, I just started a thread for discussions.

    ZibblsnrtRaiju
  • ZavianZavian doesn't own a cat.... might be a cat Registered User regular
    Bats are a pretty famous natural reservoir for some pretty tough diseases, including rabies, ebola, and (importantly here) coronaviruses. I believe they were implicated in the SARS outbreak.

    Obviously it's not known if eating bat soup specifically is the cause of this outbreak, but it's not a stretch to consider that eating undercooked bat meat could be involved, or, barring the consumption itself, the act of holding them live in markets for food use.

    It isn't necessarily the bat soup, it's the unsanitary exotic animal markets where these restaurants buy their bats that is the problem. Luckily China appears to be doing some soul searching and may permantly ban and enforce the ban of animal markets which is good news
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/virus-sparks-soul-searching-over-chinas-wild-animal-trade-11580055290

    Cantido
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    That's nice. Maybe next they could stamp on the neck of traditional medicine before it wipes out more endangered species.

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  • ZavianZavian doesn't own a cat.... might be a cat Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    That's nice. Maybe next they could stamp on the neck of traditional medicine before it wipes out more endangered species.

    Banning and enforcing the ban of exotic animal markets would go a long way. It's embedded in the culture so I'm sure there will still be illegal trade, but if the government actually enforces the ban it would definitely be helping the problem

  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    That's nice. Maybe next they could stamp on the neck of traditional medicine before it wipes out more endangered species.

    Traditional Chinese medicine is mostly herbs and acupuncture and other stuff like that, and they aren’t going to ban it.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited January 27
    shryke wrote: »
    That's nice. Maybe next they could stamp on the neck of traditional medicine before it wipes out more endangered species.

    Traditional Chinese medicine is mostly herbs and acupuncture and other stuff like that, and they aren’t going to ban it.

    It doesn't matter what TCM "mostly" is, the amount that it's bullshit is related to animals has been more then enough to put huge pressure on various endangered or now-endangered species.

    shryke on
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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    edited February 11
    Stretching definition of east Asia, but India's capital is having an election, and the right wing nationalists seem to be getting routed, according to early indications.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-51454136
    Early trends show Delhi's governing Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) heading for a big win in the Indian capital.

    The party is leading in more than two-thirds of the state's 70 seats.

    Delhi voted on 8 February after an aggressive campaign that saw BJP heavyweights such as Home Minister Amit Shah take to the streets to woo voters.

    But exit polls predicted a big win for AAP, led by charismatic politician Arvind Kejriwal, who has campaigned on education and healthcare.

    The latest trends showed AAP leading in 52 seats, with India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead in 18.

    ...

    The BJP, on the other hand, centred its campaign on a peaceful protest in Shaheen Bagh - a largely Muslim neighbourhood - against India's controversial new citizenship law, known as the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).

    The BJP painted the protesters - largely comprising thousands of Muslim women - as dangerous traitors, who wanted nothing less than the fragmentation of the country. And they alleged that AAP was supporting them.

    Two MPs campaigning for BJP were removed from a list of "star campaigners" for their comments, which included telling supporters to "shoot the traitors".

    "Polarisation is a tried and tested method that has won the BJP elections in the past. But the million dollar question is, will it also work in Delhi?" political commentator Neerja Chowdhury earlier told the BBC.

    e: I didn't really know anything about this, it just got pushed to my phone. Looks like AAP was the ruling party in the city prior to the election, so this isn't really a status-quo change.

    Jragghen on
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  • SmrtnikSmrtnik job boli zub Registered User regular
    edited February 11
    Good. Fuck nationalists of all stripes.

    Smrtnik on
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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    If you can mention India, I will mention Thailand. Insulting the monarchy is a crime heavily punishable, but the new king is highly unpopular. And that was even before he decided to hide from the pandemic in Germany instead of being in Thailand, where his alleged people are, where SARS2 is spreading and the people are suffering as the tourism-based economy is collapsing. It's too early for anything to happen but if Thailand does decide to abolish its monarchy, this is probably where the push begins.

  • DonnictonDonnicton Registered User regular
    Well this....happened. It's making the rounds pretty rapidly now, apparently a high level doctor in the WHO did an interview with Radio Television Hong Kong where he not merely refuses to acknowledge Taiwan, but flatly pretends not to hear the initial question, hangs up on the interviewer upon being asked a second time, and then on a callback proceeds to state he already talked about China.

    https://www.hongkongfp.com/2020/03/29/video-top-doctor-bruce-aylward-pretends-not-hear-journalists-taiwan-questions-ends-video-call/
    https://www.rthk.hk/tv/dtt31/programme/thepulse/episode/619602

    RaijuBarrakketh
  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    Well great.

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Taiwan at this moment seems to be doing better without the World Health Organization's bad advice. Which is to say WHO would be much better off with Taiwan's expertise and competence, which the current Chinese government would never allow since it would make them look bad.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    Taiwan at this moment seems to be doing better without the World Health Organization's bad advice. Which is to say WHO would be much better off with Taiwan's expertise and competence, which the current Chinese government would never allow since it would make them look bad.

    What bad advice?

  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Okay, advice was a bad word. Guidance? Took too long to confirm human-to-human transmission, that there was a major outbreak, that there was a pandemic, that any number of measures should be taken internationally, that numbers were clearly being undercounted in China, that Iran and other countries had an outbreak early, and in general have just been Xi Jinping's lackey. Whatever the best word for that is.

    NSDFRand
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    Okay, advice was a bad word. Guidance? Took too long to confirm human-to-human transmission, that there was a major outbreak, that there was a pandemic, that any number of measures should be taken internationally, that numbers were clearly being undercounted in China, that Iran and other countries had an outbreak early, and in general have just been Xi Jinping's lackey. Whatever the best word for that is.

    The WHO as an organization is just not in a position to play any sort of hardball with China.

    DoodmannRaijutynic
  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Most organizations aren't, especially WRT Taiwan. It's got nothing to do with Taiwan making China look bad, it's because the China considers Taiwan a part of China. Anyone that officially recognizes Taiwan as an independent state pisses of mainland China

    A WHO doctor doing an interview isn't going to want to to answer anything bout Taiwanese membership because any answer will piss off lots of people

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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    edited April 16
    e: Pre-warning the below may be false. Everything I've seen about this online is traced back to literally the same message board post, so there's no external confirmation. Treat it with a good bit of skepticism.



    China's firewall is about to get a hell of a lot more...fire...wall-y.

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3916690
    TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — After blocking a popular Nintendo game "Animal Crossing," the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is taking its political censorship to the extreme by disconnecting Chinese online gamers from their guildmates outside China.

    ...

    The communist regime is said to have noticed an authority vacuum in online multiplayer games, which enables people to freely socialize without monitoring. Local metropolises are scrambling to draft laws to expand the scope of online censorship in video games and even prohibit gamers from meeting and chatting with people on the other side of the Great Firewall, according to LTN, which cited news from a Chinese gaming forum.

    One-player online games will also be subject to surveillance, as a new real-name mechanism is going to be implemented in China. Also, the new law will not allow for zombies and plagues, map editing, roleplaying, as well as organizing a union in games — regulations which are believed to be inspired by the sensitive content made by Joshua Wong.

    ...

    Other rules under the new law are less political. They include an online gaming curfew (10 p.m. to 8 a.m.) for gamers aged under 18 and a maximum amount of money they are allowed to spend on games to combat internet addiction.

    (that last line actually isn't necessarily a bad idea, although it involves a ton of bad ideas to be able to implement it)

    Jragghen on
    kime
  • manwiththemachinegunmanwiththemachinegun METAL GEAR?! Registered User regular
    edited April 16
    I guess 1984 was just a preview after all then. Because if China could do citizen nerve stapling ala Alpha Centauri, I think they absolutely would at this point. Everything about their big data, social credit, history rewriting hyper police state just gets worse all the time.

    manwiththemachinegun on
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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    I guess 1984 was just a preview after all then. Because if China could do citizen nerve stapling ala Alpha Centauri, I think they absolutely would at this point. Everything about their big data, social credit, history rewriting hyper police state just gets worse all the time.

    Each time they get more pushback though. China’s middle and upper classes hate the firewall, eventually it will have to reform as they take their places as the next wave of party leadership.

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    I remember when China's expanding economy was going to create a middle-class that would demand political reforms.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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  • rahkeesh2000rahkeesh2000 Registered User regular
    edited April 16
    Enc wrote: »
    I guess 1984 was just a preview after all then. Because if China could do citizen nerve stapling ala Alpha Centauri, I think they absolutely would at this point. Everything about their big data, social credit, history rewriting hyper police state just gets worse all the time.

    Each time they get more pushback though. China’s middle and upper classes hate the firewall, eventually it will have to reform as they take their places as the next wave of party leadership.

    What wave. Isn't Xi basically president for life now?

    rahkeesh2000 on
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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    By the by, it appears that the articles about this thing have been doing about the same level of due diligence as I did when posting it here, and literally everything on this is sourced back to the same ~post on a video game message board~ so you should take that news article with a metric ton of salt.

  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Since when are video game (or web comics about video gamers) message boards not acceptable sources of news

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  • TNTrooperTNTrooper Registered User regular
    Since when are video game (or web comics about video gamers) message boards not acceptable sources of news

    Message boards about video games are a better source of information then the White House.

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  • OrcaOrca Registered User regular
    edited April 16
    Jragghen wrote: »
    By the by, it appears that the articles about this thing have been doing about the same level of due diligence as I did when posting it here, and literally everything on this is sourced back to the same ~post on a video game message board~ so you should take that news article with a metric ton of salt.

    I feel like maybe you should lead with that instead of leading with a reference to the post. Pretty well undermines the entire thing, absent some other verification.

    Orca on
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  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    TNTrooper wrote: »
    Since when are video game (or web comics about video gamers) message boards not acceptable sources of news

    Message boards about video games are a better source of information then the White House.

    Well maybe not the THQ Nordic boards

  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Orca wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »
    By the by, it appears that the articles about this thing have been doing about the same level of due diligence as I did when posting it here, and literally everything on this is sourced back to the same ~post on a video game message board~ so you should take that news article with a metric ton of salt.

    I feel like maybe you should lead with that instead of leading with a reference to the post. Pretty well undermines the entire thing, absent some other verification.

    Yeah, I'd already edited in a bit above it, but I'll make it more explicit.

  • OrcaOrca Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Orca wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »
    By the by, it appears that the articles about this thing have been doing about the same level of due diligence as I did when posting it here, and literally everything on this is sourced back to the same ~post on a video game message board~ so you should take that news article with a metric ton of salt.

    I feel like maybe you should lead with that instead of leading with a reference to the post. Pretty well undermines the entire thing, absent some other verification.

    Yeah, I'd already edited in a bit above it, but I'll make it more explicit.

    Thanks, that's much more clear that this is basically hearsay!

    Jragghen
  • schussschuss Registered User regular
    TNTrooper wrote: »
    Since when are video game (or web comics about video gamers) message boards not acceptable sources of news

    Message boards about video games are a better source of information then the White House.

    To be fair, that bar is basically buried underground

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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    I remember when China's expanding economy was going to create a middle-class that would demand political reforms.

    It did, and has done. Maybe not the ones we want in the west, or are wanted by Hong Kong, though.

    RaijuCauldFencingsaxJusticeforPluto
  • QuidQuid I don't... what... hnnng Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    I remember when China's expanding economy was going to create a middle-class that would demand political reforms.

    It did, and has done. Maybe not the ones we want in the west, or are wanted by Hong Kong, though.

    In what fashion?

  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    edited April 17
    Quid wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    I remember when China's expanding economy was going to create a middle-class that would demand political reforms.

    It did, and has done. Maybe not the ones we want in the west, or are wanted by Hong Kong, though.

    In what fashion?

    Economic Reforms:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_economic_reform#2005–2012

    There is a wealth of information on this, and answering satisfactory in a post will be reductive. Suffice to say that since 1970 the middle class economic reforms have been substantial, with a great deal of them being since 2005-2006 to present. They have swung toward US-style capitalism and then back toward more populist control when that lead to major economic bubbles. Poverty and inequality are at all time lows in China, which while still a long way from where they are in the west, compared to where the average citizen in rural and urban China were 5, 10, and 20 years ago its a massive increase in the quality of life-- especially in the availability of medicine, education, and the ability to get specialized work.

    That doesn't mean there isn't tremendous inequities between urban and rural prefectures, there are. Nor does it mean China's government hasn't been authoritarian as fuck the whole time, they certainly have. But their goals tend to shift as the next wave of party folk as they enter majority in reaction to the last group's failures. The current swing toward greater control by the party in places of business largely comes from a desire for stability and the ability to absorb shocks to prevent another 2010-2012 economic collapse. I'd expect the 2020-2030s to see folks lowering the firewall and instead placing greater focus on controlling their social media consumption companies and increasing their influence in the education system as a means to ensure party loyalty as the firewall is an imperfect tool for social control and narratively supports the fringe cases like Hong Kong which resist party control (rightly so). We already have been seeing this in how higher education systems in China are doing lend-retrieve degrees with Western partners, but only after the students have a significant amount of party propaganda civics courses.

    Enc on
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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    Quid wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    I remember when China's expanding economy was going to create a middle-class that would demand political reforms.

    It did, and has done. Maybe not the ones we want in the west, or are wanted by Hong Kong, though.

    In what fashion?

    Economic Reforms:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_economic_reform#2005–2012

    There is a wealth of information on this, and answering satisfactory in a post will be reductive. Suffice to say that since 1970 the middle class economic reforms have been substantial, with a great deal of them being since 2005-2006 to present. They have swung toward US-style capitalism and then back toward more populist control when that lead to major economic bubbles. Poverty and inequality are at all time lows in China, which while still a long way from where they are in the west, compared to where the average citizen in rural and urban China were 5, 10, and 20 years ago its a massive increase in the quality of life-- especially in the availability of medicine, education, and the ability to get specialized work.

    That doesn't mean there isn't tremendous inequities between urban and rural prefectures, there are. Nor does it mean China's government hasn't been authoritarian as fuck the whole time, they certainly have. But their goals tend to shift as the next wave of party folk as they enter majority in reaction to the last group's failures. The current swing toward greater control by the party in places of business largely comes from a desire for stability and the ability to absorb shocks to prevent another 2010-2012 economic collapse. I'd expect the 2020-2030s to see folks lowering the firewall and instead placing greater focus on controlling their social media consumption companies and increasing their influence in the education system as a means to ensure party loyalty as the firewall is an imperfect tool for social control and narratively supports the fringe cases like Hong Kong which resist party control (rightly so). We already have been seeing this in how higher education systems in China are doing lend-retrieve degrees with Western partners, but only after the students have a significant amount of party propaganda civics courses.

    But these aren't the actual political reforms the people that daveNYC's post references. Nor do they seem to be the kind of political reforms you are implying either.

  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    Quid wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    I remember when China's expanding economy was going to create a middle-class that would demand political reforms.

    It did, and has done. Maybe not the ones we want in the west, or are wanted by Hong Kong, though.

    In what fashion?

    Economic Reforms:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_economic_reform#2005–2012

    There is a wealth of information on this, and answering satisfactory in a post will be reductive. Suffice to say that since 1970 the middle class economic reforms have been substantial, with a great deal of them being since 2005-2006 to present. They have swung toward US-style capitalism and then back toward more populist control when that lead to major economic bubbles. Poverty and inequality are at all time lows in China, which while still a long way from where they are in the west, compared to where the average citizen in rural and urban China were 5, 10, and 20 years ago its a massive increase in the quality of life-- especially in the availability of medicine, education, and the ability to get specialized work.

    That doesn't mean there isn't tremendous inequities between urban and rural prefectures, there are. Nor does it mean China's government hasn't been authoritarian as fuck the whole time, they certainly have. But their goals tend to shift as the next wave of party folk as they enter majority in reaction to the last group's failures. The current swing toward greater control by the party in places of business largely comes from a desire for stability and the ability to absorb shocks to prevent another 2010-2012 economic collapse. I'd expect the 2020-2030s to see folks lowering the firewall and instead placing greater focus on controlling their social media consumption companies and increasing their influence in the education system as a means to ensure party loyalty as the firewall is an imperfect tool for social control and narratively supports the fringe cases like Hong Kong which resist party control (rightly so). We already have been seeing this in how higher education systems in China are doing lend-retrieve degrees with Western partners, but only after the students have a significant amount of party propaganda civics courses.

    But these aren't the actual political reforms the people that daveNYC's post references. Nor do they seem to be the kind of political reforms you are implying either.

    They are, though. Just as right now China is in a swing of more state control, from 2000-2012 saw a significant liberalization up to the point where the bubble collapsed and opinions changed. Again, the reforms we ~want~ to see from a western lens aren't necessarily those seen as needed by the middle and upper classes of China.

    NSDFRandBlackDragon480
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