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[NHL] Thread; Oilers Win Draft Lottery

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    BurtletoyBurtletoy Registered User regular
    edited January 2014
    And really bad for the past 18 months.

    Edit: really bad is an exaggeration, but bad compared to other canadians that are available.

    Burtletoy on
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    BurtletoyBurtletoy Registered User regular
    How did we win that game?

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    CleonicusCleonicus Registered User regular
    I remember reading something how Kunitz, Crosby and Dupuis (I think Dupuis, but it could have been another Penguin) did a lot of half-ice practicing together during the lock out. This helped create better chemistry between them as they learned where each person tended to go in the offensive zone.

    Debate 'n' DeHockey team: Astronauts
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    JayrichoJayricho Ontario, CanadaRegistered User regular
    Holy hell I can't believe the Avs pulled that one off. Big nights for both Staz and Lando. Also, suck it Anderson.

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    Le_GoatLe_Goat Frechified Goat Person BostonRegistered User regular
    Jesus... This West Coast trip for Boston us not going well. I should just go back to playing SWTOR instead of watching this agony.

    While I agree that being insensitive is an issue, so is being oversensitive.
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    JayrichoJayricho Ontario, CanadaRegistered User regular
    I find it kind of funny that after spending all that time being buried in the minors and then being traded, Liles turns around and scores on the Leafs a few games later.

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    Le_GoatLe_Goat Frechified Goat Person BostonRegistered User regular
    Jayricho wrote: »
    I find it kind of funny that after spending all that time being buried in the minors and then being traded, Liles turns around and scores on the Leafs a few games later.
    That's pretty much the Bruins farm system, lol. Happens too often

    While I agree that being insensitive is an issue, so is being oversensitive.
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    DissociaterDissociater Registered User regular
    Jayricho wrote: »
    I find it kind of funny that after spending all that time being buried in the minors and then being traded, Liles turns around and scores on the Leafs a few games later.

    Not too surprising really. There has been a huge amount of mismanagement of Leaf assets this season/last off season.

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    JayrichoJayricho Ontario, CanadaRegistered User regular
    I'm not even sure if I would have noticed if it weren't for Liles. Always been a big fan of his. Still wear my Liles/Avs jersey sometimes.

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    Le_GoatLe_Goat Frechified Goat Person BostonRegistered User regular
    edited January 2014
    This Bruins/Sharks game is intense.

    Also, while I may be enjoying it now, that cup of coffee to keep me awake for the game may come back to bite me in the ass

    Le_Goat on
    While I agree that being insensitive is an issue, so is being oversensitive.
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    JeanJean Heartbroken papa bear Gatineau, QuébecRegistered User regular
    Wow, I just noticed than St Louis have a +62 goal differential while looking at the standings, 21 ahead of Chicago and Anaheim. 2nd best attack in the league, 3rd best defense.

    How did they get so good?

    "You won't destroy us, You won't destroy our democracy. We are a small but proud nation. No one can bomb us to silence. No one can scare us from being Norway. This evening and tonight, we'll take care of each other. That's what we do best when attacked'' - Jens Stoltenberg
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    Le_GoatLe_Goat Frechified Goat Person BostonRegistered User regular
    They've quietly been getting better the last few years. My money is on them for the a West champs.

    While I agree that being insensitive is an issue, so is being oversensitive.
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    They're the Blues. That is not what they do.

    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    DissociaterDissociater Registered User regular
    edited January 2014
    So what are people's thoughts on the way the NHL handles the draft? Consider it especially in the light of a cap era.

    To me it sounds good on paper: The worst teams get the best young players. But the lack of randomization in how the draft order is picked presents a problem to me. It wasn't an issue as much pre-cap because teams had many more options to improve via trades and free agency. But that path is kind of disappearing.

    So my theory is based mostly with observations of the Leafs over the last 10 years or so since the cap, but there are a few other teams that fall in this same cycle. For example: Dallas, Calgary, Carolina, Buffalo and Winnipeg.

    Basically my theory is, if you're drafting in the 10-15 spot overall, the players you are likely to get are going to be just good enough to ensure you continue picking in the 10-15 spot overall.

    An old suggestion was: The cap will stop dynasties from forming because great teams will only be able to hold onto their core players for a few years before they can't afford them anymore. But this has been somewhat proven false because the cap keeps going up every year. So unless all your stars are coming up for contract at the same time, each year you're getting more money to play with.

    Anyways, I've kind of concluded that good teams can more easily stay good because the cap goes up every year. Terrible teams can get superstars through the draft. But those mediocre teams that finish between 7-12 in their conferences are kind of left with little to no way to improve their teams. Free Agency is empty these days, trades are becoming more and more rare as the cap makes matching players difficult, and trading picks for players is almost more difficult as the team getting the players probably can't afford to take them without moving salary the other way (cap again).

    Of course there will be exceptions to this. There will still be the odd superstar who will suddenly appear from later picks or even later rounds. But how can a team like the Leafs, for example, break this cycle of mediocrity? Since 2005 the highest they've picked is 5th, and the lowest is 21st. Or Buffalo, who since 2004 has picked in the 12-16 spot 7 times.

    E: this topic is spurred by the Leaf's recent slide down to where I think most people predicted they would be: fighting for the 8th playoff spot. This is a fight the leafs have been going for for what feels like a decade now, and there's really no end in sight to it. It seems like they'll be getting another 8th or 10th overall pick who will do nothing to improve the team but also do nothing to get the Leafs into a position to pick in the top 3.

    Dissociater on
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    JayrichoJayricho Ontario, CanadaRegistered User regular
    edited January 2014
    Well the change they made to the draft last year was supposed to help solve that problem, with every time not making the playoffs having a chance at winning the draft lottery. The problem is that the percentage to win the lottery for teams outside the bottom 5 or so minuscule you'll probably almost never see it happen.

    Also, Claude Noel has officially been relieved of coaching duties in Winnipeg. Replaced with Paul Maurice.

    Jayricho on
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    MatriasMatrias Registered User regular
    edited January 2014
    I feel like the 2013-14 Leafs season is the greatest combination of organizational hubris and easily predictable disaster in recent memory.

    Who knew replacing Grabovski and MacArthur with objectively worse players and burying your best young guys while leaning on plugs would doom your season.

    Matrias on
    3DS/Pokemon Friend Code - 2122-5878-9273 - Kyle
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    Sharp101Sharp101 TorontoRegistered User regular
    The worst part about being a Leafs fan is how hard it is to talk about the Leafs with anyone. Views/Biases are so polarized that discussion always seems to boil down to "They are the worst thing ever" or "They are the best thing ever." It gets really frustrating, which is one of the main reasons I find very little reason to talk about them with anyone anymore (online or in person.)

    That being said, I still watch every game. The past few weeks have been really rough but it's amazing that they've played the worst hockey of their season but still have managed 14 points in the past 15 games/month. Without that the season would be doomed. Because of that I'm staying optimistic, I think there is still time to pull things out. The past two games have shown a lot of promise again, I hope they can keep it up.

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    Le_GoatLe_Goat Frechified Goat Person BostonRegistered User regular
    Sharp101 wrote: »
    The worst part about being a Leafs fan is how hard it is to talk about the Leafs with anyone. Views/Biases are so polarized that discussion always seems to boil down to "They are the worst thing ever" or "They are the best thing ever." It gets really frustrating, which is one of the main reasons I find very little reason to talk about them with anyone anymore (online or in person.)
    I think you will find that is true with any city who has a beyond passionate following of a sports team. Take Boston for instance. Sadly, hockey is still not what it used to be in this town, so the discussions about the Bruins are mostly with devout fans; sure, they've picked up in popularity due to winning the Cup, but it is nowhere near as big as the Sox or Pats. That being said, it's not often that I have a discussion with someone about the Bs and find myself wanting to slap the shit out of them for not making any sense; I stress not often because it inevitably happens.

    Now if you start talking Patriots with anyone around here, it's like you're stuck in a scene from One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, because it's an all-or-nothing view point that borderlines crazy talk. It's like they are completely oblivious to reality and are focusing on a love-hate approach instead of accepting what's really happening. "So-and-so is the bet fill in the blank evah! He's a fucking god!!!" or "God the defense is the worst I've ever seen" without really providing much insight into their rationale other than a "because I said so" mentality.

    I find that in such instances, you can tell which publications those people are reading, because all they are doing is regurgitating what they've read/heard instead of thinking about it for themselves.

    While I agree that being insensitive is an issue, so is being oversensitive.
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    Sharp101Sharp101 TorontoRegistered User regular
    Le_Goat wrote: »
    Sharp101 wrote: »
    The worst part about being a Leafs fan is how hard it is to talk about the Leafs with anyone. Views/Biases are so polarized that discussion always seems to boil down to "They are the worst thing ever" or "They are the best thing ever." It gets really frustrating, which is one of the main reasons I find very little reason to talk about them with anyone anymore (online or in person.)
    I think you will find that is true with any city who has a beyond passionate following of a sports team. Take Boston for instance. Sadly, hockey is still not what it used to be in this town, so the discussions about the Bruins are mostly with devout fans; sure, they've picked up in popularity due to winning the Cup, but it is nowhere near as big as the Sox or Pats. That being said, it's not often that I have a discussion with someone about the Bs and find myself wanting to slap the shit out of them for not making any sense; I stress not often because it inevitably happens.

    Now if you start talking Patriots with anyone around here, it's like you're stuck in a scene from One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, because it's an all-or-nothing view point that borderlines crazy talk. It's like they are completely oblivious to reality and are focusing on a love-hate approach instead of accepting what's really happening. "So-and-so is the bet fill in the blank evah! He's a fucking god!!!" or "God the defense is the worst I've ever seen" without really providing much insight into their rationale other than a "because I said so" mentality.

    I find that in such instances, you can tell which publications those people are reading, because all they are doing is regurgitating what they've read/heard instead of thinking about it for themselves.

    Yeah, and that is only half of it. Leafs fans also get to deal with the rest of the league/country :P

    But I don't want to turn this into a bitchfest or anything so I'll drop it. I only brought it up because of Dissociater and Matrias' posts.

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    DissociaterDissociater Registered User regular
    Well my curiosity about what people think re: drafting comes out of the fact that the Leafs, outside of a shortened season last year, seem to be in pretty much the same place as they were 7 or 8 years ago. Despite a huge roster turnover, they haven't really gotten much better, but also haven't really gotten any worse. And they're not really the only team to have fallen into that mire.

    It just seems like finishing with a mediocre record gets you a mediocre draft pick which keeps your team mediocre. So how should a team break that cycle keeping in mind that trading is getting harder every year, stockpiling picks is getting even more difficult (since you're trading salary for no salary), and the free agent pool is getting thinner and older each year as these long term mega-contracts become more common.

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    Sharp101Sharp101 TorontoRegistered User regular
    edited January 2014
    I should have clarified that I thought your ideas were interesting but I was hesitant to comment on it directly because we are both Leafs fans and I can assume most people aren't going to take us talking about the Draft and bubble teams seriously :)

    Sharp101 on
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    Le_GoatLe_Goat Frechified Goat Person BostonRegistered User regular
    It's definitely an interesting concept and a viewpoint that I had not taken into consideration. I honestly thought that the Leafs had been picking up steam over the last couple of seasons and thought they looked to be a real strong force in the near future, including this year. Not being a Leafs fan, I don't have a lot of knowledge about the Leafs' drafting and their draft positions like you guys do.

    It's only half way through the season, so a lot can change. They're sitting at 50 points, and there are 9 teams within 6 points of one another (46-51) in the conference. Of those nine, six are in the Metro division who are fighting between 2nd/3rd in the division and the wild card spots. Shit can change wicked quick over there. In addition, the teams at the top can quickly fall if they get in a funk; wasn't that Ottawa's trend for the longest time: start of strong then epic collapse in the 2nd half?

    While I agree that being insensitive is an issue, so is being oversensitive.
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    DissociaterDissociater Registered User regular
    Le_Goat wrote: »
    It's definitely an interesting concept and a viewpoint that I had not taken into consideration. I honestly thought that the Leafs had been picking up steam over the last couple of seasons and thought they looked to be a real strong force in the near future, including this year. Not being a Leafs fan, I don't have a lot of knowledge about the Leafs' drafting and their draft positions like you guys do.

    It's only half way through the season, so a lot can change. They're sitting at 50 points, and there are 9 teams within 6 points of one another (46-51) in the conference. Of those nine, six are in the Metro division who are fighting between 2nd/3rd in the division and the wild card spots. Shit can change wicked quick over there. In addition, the teams at the top can quickly fall if they get in a funk; wasn't that Ottawa's trend for the longest time: start of strong then epic collapse in the 2nd half?

    I think the leafs are in the middle of a pretty epic collapse right now.

    They've won 2 games in regulation since November 21st. It's only the loser point that's saving them these days!

    I agree, a lot can change in their specific situation, but last night I was actually kind of hoping the Leafs would lose. Just because after a 4 game losing streak I can just foresee them turning things around just enough to get to 8th or 9th position...yet again.

    I just had a 'here we go again!' moment last night which kind of made start thinking about this stuff.

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    MatriasMatrias Registered User regular
    edited January 2014
    The Leafs already rode a streak of hot luck to start the season, so betting on another one to save them later on is unwise.

    The Leafs underlying posession numbers aren't very good and have been predictive to this collapse, but the East is also extra awful this year so who knows.

    Matrias on
    3DS/Pokemon Friend Code - 2122-5878-9273 - Kyle
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    MatriasMatrias Registered User regular
    edited January 2014
    Sharp101 wrote: »
    I should have clarified that I thought your ideas were interesting but I was hesitant to comment on it directly because we are both Leafs fans and I can assume most people aren't going to take us talking about the Draft and bubble teams seriously :)

    I LOVE TALKING ABOUT DRAFTING AND BUBBLE TEAMS.

    @Dissociater "It just seems like finishing with a mediocre record gets you a mediocre draft pick which keeps your team mediocre." This is so, but you can circumvent this by drafting at high volume. Look at what the Hawks and Red Wings do: keep their picks, and do their best to diversify them later, moving roster players for multiple picks at every draft and being able to draft three or four times in the opening rounds. Makes sense, right? Most picks bust, so hedge your bets with multiple picks. Both the Blackhawks and Bruins rebuilds heavily featured multiple picks in the second and third rounds.

    I also like what the Sharks did to land Logan Couture - trading a spare goalie and a 1st & 2nd to move up the draft into striking range of a player they really liked. My Canucks get oh so much guff for moving Cory Schneider for the 9th overall, but I think if you can turn a spare goalie into an extra top 10 pick in a deep draft, you should do it.

    In regards to the Leafs, some of their drafting practices of late have been super questionable. I think Frederick Gauthier in 2013 was an awful pick - players that score at such a low rate in Junior almost never amount to NHL players, let alone impact ones. Burakowsky, Shinkaruk, Erne, Hartman were probably better picks that late. Leafs also like to draft defensemen super early, something I think is something to be wary of. D-man development is hardly linear and easily derailed by rushing the players. Best to draft forwards early, defensemen later, and goalies never (seriously, it's such a crap shoot to identify good goalies at 18, just sign good undrafted one to emerge at later ages and let them cook in the minors). Many of the leagues best defensemen have been late or undrafted picks who have been allowed to develop in minor leagues for an extended period of time and emerge much later.

    sorry, went on a ramble. It's a topic I like.

    Matrias on
    3DS/Pokemon Friend Code - 2122-5878-9273 - Kyle
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    BurtletoyBurtletoy Registered User regular
    The Pens draft dmen high every year, and it's paid off quite well for them.

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    Le_GoatLe_Goat Frechified Goat Person BostonRegistered User regular
    Matrias wrote: »
    The Leafs underlying posession numbers aren't very good and have been predictive to this collapse, but the East is also extra awful this year so who knows.
    It really is... and I have no idea why that is the case this year.

    While I agree that being insensitive is an issue, so is being oversensitive.
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    Sharp101Sharp101 TorontoRegistered User regular
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    Le_GoatLe_Goat Frechified Goat Person BostonRegistered User regular
    Yeah, it was pretty crazy. The Leafs definitely capitalized on Rask's poor positioning after rebounds. Bergeron's wrap-around was pretty slick, too. Very fun game to watch.

    While I agree that being insensitive is an issue, so is being oversensitive.
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    tinwhiskerstinwhiskers Registered User regular
    One of the things you need to look at with your premise @Dissociater , is that at least a couple of those teams listed have internal caps lower than the salary cap. They may have millions of free agent signings they could make to improve the team but don't. Which in turn helps cap spending teams keep their players, because the non-cap spending teams aren't trying to out bid them.

    Then there is the dual taxes & LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION issue. I'm not an expert on how NHL wages and national tax codes work, but while the Canadian national rate is actual 6% lower than in the US max individual provenances are way way higher than most US states.(holy fuck Quebec 26% income tax over 100k). Like before taking in to account accounting tricks(and idk if you guys have other taxes on income that aren't income tax ala FICA in the US), a player in Chicago is saving 6% -10% on their taxes vs a player in Winnipeg. MSL, would be taking something like a 20% pay cut to move from Tampa to the Habs, even on the same dollar value contract.

    And then there is: You are 24 are making several million dollars a year. Where would you rather live: Chicago or Edmonton. So on top of structural tax advantages, a lot of the Canadian teams are in frozen backwaters. Requiring a premium anyways.

    The other thing the cap does, especially because hockey is all guaranteed money, is that it makes poor GM decisions that much more disastrous for the team.

    Not to kick them while they are falling, but everyone knew the leafs possession number from last season were bad.

    Grabovski was 2nd among Leafs' forwards in relative CORSI(and worst PDO), and they bought him out. And replaced him with Clarkson. Who is worse in pretty much every measure. They took a 'mistake' that would have been gone in 4 seasons(and he may have been deal able with only a year or a year an a half left), and made it a 7 year mistake.

    And because Cap spending team X has millions tied up in bad GM moves, it makes it easier for Cap spending team Y to keep their guys, because X can't afford to make an offer.


    Also I think the lack of offer sheets at RFAs via GM collusion is not helping things. Like the internal-cap teams, it softens the market making it easier to keep teams together.

    6ylyzxlir2dz.png
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    Le_GoatLe_Goat Frechified Goat Person BostonRegistered User regular
    The other thing the cap does, especially because hockey is all guaranteed money, is that it makes poor GM decisions that much more disastrous for the team.
    I'm going to fully agree with this.

    While I agree that being insensitive is an issue, so is being oversensitive.
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    jmcdonaldjmcdonald I voted, did you? DC(ish)Registered User regular
    Le_Goat wrote: »
    The other thing the cap does, especially because hockey is all guaranteed money, is that it makes poor GM decisions that much more disastrous for the team.
    I'm going to fully agree with this.

    I would like to introduce you all to Ville Leino.

    Regier was a snake oil dealer at the deadline (seriously, amazing returns for what was sent over the past few years) but terrible at evaluating talent.

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    MatriasMatrias Registered User regular
    The same methods that can tell GMs that Ville Leino and David Clarkson were bad gambles can tell you Grabovski and MacArthur were good
    bets.

    Also Regier isn't quite so clever as you think he is, I think.

    3DS/Pokemon Friend Code - 2122-5878-9273 - Kyle
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    CleonicusCleonicus Registered User regular
    Olympic Hockey Schedule

    Also, Scrivens to EDM. Because that's the one issue with their club. No other problems that need addressing at all.

    Debate 'n' DeHockey team: Astronauts
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    jmcdonaldjmcdonald I voted, did you? DC(ish)Registered User regular
    edited January 2014
    Matrias wrote: »
    The same methods that can tell GMs that Ville Leino and David Clarkson were bad gambles can tell you Grabovski and MacArthur were good
    bets.

    Also Regier isn't quite so clever as you think he is, I think.

    Nah, he did fine accumulating 1st and 2nd round picks for non-contributors. Additionally Vanek for Moulson and a 1st was highway robbery. His issue was he "fell in love" with his folks, and he never got over the Drury/Briere fiasco. That's why we're stuck with Stafford at 4MM a year, Leino at 4.5MM a year, our "big" free agent acquisition two years ago was John Scott (which was a delayed reaction to the Miller incident).

    He was always reactive, never proactive. I just don't think he had a vision for what the team should be. But he could wheel a trade.

    EDIT

    oh! and a first for Paul Gaustad? come on man!

    jmcdonald on
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    CorvusCorvus . VancouverRegistered User regular
    I'm not sure I get this Dubynk trade and Scrivens acquisition by the Oilers. Seems like a lateral move really.

    Also, on the Schneider trade front, I think most of the criticism is that they waited too long to trade him and didn't acquire an asset to help a team that is still hoping it hasn't squandered it's window to win (it probably has :/ ) Schneider probably should have been traded a year or two earlier, not when they were left with no palatable solution to the goal tending drama.

    At least Luongo has been good this year when he hasn't been hurt and Lack has been very solid/

    :so_raven:
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    Cobalt60Cobalt60 regular Registered User regular
    edited January 2014
    Well, the Canucks found out that taking penalties against the Ducks results in a lot more goals than against the Kings.

    5 on 3 for 7 minutes.

    Top lol.

    Cobalt60 on
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    DissociaterDissociater Registered User regular
    Dreger's saying Kadri's on the tradeblock but they'll only move him for a centre. Who could he conceivably get? I can't imagine his value's very high, he's been a bit disappointing really. Of course, he could be another Alex Steen in the making :|

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    Le_GoatLe_Goat Frechified Goat Person BostonRegistered User regular
    The refs in this Boston/Dallas game need to be .... I cannot come up with a verb/description that won't get me sanctioned. They are terrible. There was no reason to disallow that first goal and the fucked up no-calls are pissing me off.

    While I agree that being insensitive is an issue, so is being oversensitive.
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    Le_GoatLe_Goat Frechified Goat Person BostonRegistered User regular
    That McQuaid penalty is exactly what I'm talking about. Normally, it would be an interference, but they didn't call that shit against Dallas earlier, which was more blatant. Ugh, if the refs could just fucking be stable

    While I agree that being insensitive is an issue, so is being oversensitive.
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