There are some heeeeinously bad players in arena right now. Go get your wins gents.
See, I wish that was the case. I just went 3-3. All three loses from Shamans with so much removal it was ridiculous.
Shaman: 6, Paladin: 4, Rogue: 7 today. The Paladin and Rogue decks had a fair amount of junk in them, so the former performed as expected, Rogue overperformed. A little disappointed in the Shaman deck: thought it'd make 8 or 9, but while it was all solid cards, it didn't really have anything to gain me advantage (I realised in retrospect), and wasn't aggro enough to sustain momentum with just good trades. It also drew horribly. Sigh.
Anyways, I didn't see many n00bs running about either. I did definitely notice some bad misplays - somebody bypassed my Shattered Sun Cleric with their Ironforge Rifleman 2 turns in a row - but I certainly didn't find a buffet of n00bs to feast on. I feel misled!
I've seen some very bad plat as well, but have had some surprisingly short runs lately too.
I don't feel too bad, I was watching a trump video on youtube during lunch from about a week back where he went 0-3 with what I thought was a really good pally deck.
After playing a bit more, the fact that the blood imp is a 0-1 now just really annoys me. Not for me, but when facing one, because it will never leave stealth. I mean, how can it? And that just makes it so much more annoying in arena where you're not as likely to have something that can hit it.
Having two of the new Blood Imps on the board is fun, except when they buff each other to 0/4 and 0/5. Those buffs would have been much more appreciated on other minions.
But that's OK, I still won that game due to ludicrous tempo.
I must have gotten offered eye for an eye 5 times in my draft just now.
Sometimes I wonder if maybe I just take the first one, the drafter won't offer me the next four. Like it just WANTS you take one, ONE, is that too much to ask?!
Out played the shit out of this mage, but 2 flame strikes, 2 poly, 2 fireball, and a faceless manipulator to back it up is too strong. Bastard manipulated my sotrmwind then polied it, and couldn't do anything after that. Had lethal on the board too
I'm 6 and 1 now with a shammy deck... rockbiter weapon/flametongue totem and windspeaker combos for some ridiculous damage! This last game a hunter wiped out my board except for a lone healing totem he left alive. Double rockbiter windspeaker, 12 damage! Nobody expects the healing totem of death.
I have 15 cards left, 2 are flame strikes. I have a couple of turns with an ogre on the board, don't get one. Would have won me the game there. Then I get down to 10 cards, with a chance if I get one still. Never saw one.
edit this guy played so bad, I couldn't get my free win
We've done the math (in this thread or a previous iteration of it). Over all players, the mean will be 3 wins. The expected median will be slightly lower but effectively 3 (IIRC).
Minor unimportant nitpick: the mean will actually be slightly lower than 3 (but pretty darn close). The median should be exactly 3, but that's a tad misleading; the median is not really so useful in this case.
So for perfect Swiss matching and no drops, the mean number of wins is ~3. It's skewed slightly less than 3 due to people reaching 12 wins. The median number of wins is 2. That is, half of all arena runs end with 2 or fewer wins. That's skewed because 3 is your mean, and then you have a long tail to the right but not the left.
Yes, this. Also I think that the median is a very good value to look at, much more interesting than the mean.
Love it, most of my arena losses have ben from mages. Had a freaking mage pyro blast me back to back in my last game. Yes this is fair and balanced arena play at it's finest!
yes I know ir's random, still a complete bullshit spell.
"If a cherry pie filled cape is wrong, I don't want to be right.
I'm dead serious."
Most of the wins from people who disregard most my minions and try and attack me directly. So they get me down to 5~ health before my board control and some taunt means they can't do anything.
Another disconnect in Arena but no loss. Maybe they changed it, I thought. Next game, crushed by a Paladin and coming back to the key screen I was awarded with 2 losses, guess there was just a delay before. Happy times. Spent more time drafting cards than playing this arena run, my punishment for making it to 10 wins on my first run yesterday and 11 wins on the third one.
I taunted an imp and the guy didn't realize you could attack past it (while stealthed). He just kept playing minions and then not attacking...I wish there was chat sometimes.
Last night was a mix of bad players and sharks. I got rolled by an amazing mage draft - Mana Wyrm opening into Arcane Missiles to kill my 3/2, Sea Giant, Molten Giant, Pyroblast.. I had to rage / congratulate the fellow after the match. (In a civilized manner) Hopefully he lived the dream. I can't imagine that NOT working out. I also realized I need to play a counter-intuitive game with this warrior deck. If I start with my high cost cards in hand, don't mulligan them. I only have maybe 5 cards > 4 cost, but I need those cards to win. So keep those needles in my hand rather than the deck haystack, and just play all my topdecks (cause they're guaranteed to be low cost fast cards).
We've done the math (in this thread or a previous iteration of it). Over all players, the mean will be 3 wins. The expected median will be slightly lower but effectively 3 (IIRC).
Minor unimportant nitpick: the mean will actually be slightly lower than 3 (but pretty darn close). The median should be exactly 3, but that's a tad misleading; the median is not really so useful in this case.
So for perfect Swiss matching and no drops, the mean number of wins is ~3. It's skewed slightly less than 3 due to people reaching 12 wins. The median number of wins is 2. That is, half of all arena runs end with 2 or fewer wins. That's skewed because 3 is your mean, and then you have a long tail to the right but not the left.
Yes, this. Also I think that the median is a very good value to look at, much more interesting than the mean.
Eh. If the probability of getting 2 or fewer wins is exactly 0.5, as is the probability of getting 3 or more, then every number between 2 and 3 (inclusive) is a median (if we're treating this as a probability distribution -- if we're treating it as a finite data set instead, then the median is exactly 2.5). Median is wonky and not very useful here.
I'm doing worse in arena since beta opened Like way worse
Before I was usually getting 4-6 wins, post open beta I'm less than 3 in the last 4 arenas I played.
Four arenas just isn't very many to draw important conclusions from, and I think people are right that everyone is really out in force right now, good players and new players alike. I've definitely played a few very good players today and last night.
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
We've done the math (in this thread or a previous iteration of it). Over all players, the mean will be 3 wins. The expected median will be slightly lower but effectively 3 (IIRC).
Minor unimportant nitpick: the mean will actually be slightly lower than 3 (but pretty darn close). The median should be exactly 3, but that's a tad misleading; the median is not really so useful in this case.
So for perfect Swiss matching and no drops, the mean number of wins is ~3. It's skewed slightly less than 3 due to people reaching 12 wins. The median number of wins is 2. That is, half of all arena runs end with 2 or fewer wins. That's skewed because 3 is your mean, and then you have a long tail to the right but not the left.
Yes, this. Also I think that the median is a very good value to look at, much more interesting than the mean.
Eh. If the probability of getting 2 or fewer wins is exactly 0.5, as is the probability of getting 3 or more, then every number between 2 and 3 (inclusive) is a median (if we're treating this as a probability distribution -- if we're treating it as a finite data set instead, then the median is exactly 2.5). Median is wonky and not very useful here.
You missed the point. The idea of the median is useful because you finish with 3 wins and can know "I'm in the top half of finishes" or vice versa. No one cares about how to technically define a median if it falls exactly between a 2 and a 3. If you just can't stand it, imagine that someone plays one more game, and then calculate the median. Problem solved.
We've done the math (in this thread or a previous iteration of it). Over all players, the mean will be 3 wins. The expected median will be slightly lower but effectively 3 (IIRC).
Minor unimportant nitpick: the mean will actually be slightly lower than 3 (but pretty darn close). The median should be exactly 3, but that's a tad misleading; the median is not really so useful in this case.
So for perfect Swiss matching and no drops, the mean number of wins is ~3. It's skewed slightly less than 3 due to people reaching 12 wins. The median number of wins is 2. That is, half of all arena runs end with 2 or fewer wins. That's skewed because 3 is your mean, and then you have a long tail to the right but not the left.
Yes, this. Also I think that the median is a very good value to look at, much more interesting than the mean.
Eh. If the probability of getting 2 or fewer wins is exactly 0.5, as is the probability of getting 3 or more, then every number between 2 and 3 (inclusive) is a median (if we're treating this as a probability distribution -- if we're treating it as a finite data set instead, then the median is exactly 2.5). Median is wonky and not very useful here.
You missed the point. The idea of the median is useful because you finish with 3 wins and can know "I'm in the top half of finishes" or vice versa. No one cares about how to technically define a median if it falls exactly between a 2 and a 3. If you just can't stand it, imagine that someone plays one more game, and then calculate the median. Problem solved.
Except it's not that useful, because you're not going to play just one arena. You're going to play lots. What's interesting is whether your overall arena performance is in the top 50% compared to the rest of the population, and the median's not going to help there (because of aforementioned wonkiness). The mean is much more useful there.
I can't believe I won my last game. It was verse a priest with 2xmind visions and 2xthought steal.
Through this game he played his Ysera, my Ysera, my Tirion, my pyromancer+equality combo and basically stalled like a champ. But I stayed in. If there is anything my pally deck is good at it is holding out till late game. I ran out of cards just before him but I knew he dropped both of his holy novas so I dumped a hand of weenies and started beating on him. I had him down to 3 and on my board is just my Ysera(he silenced it no MC I think) and heals to 5. I hit him for 4 and he dies to fatigue damage. Last card in my hand was Tirion. I had him and Ysera most of the game but he never dropped and MC and I didn't have the clear combos anymore and didn't want to risk it.
But man nail biter of a game. I thought I was going to lose but I barely pulled it out.
Normally I pick the class randomly in arena but I'm thinking of removing shaman from my list, despite doing well with it occasionally.
The reason is that unless you get lightning storm there are way too many situations where you can't get out of trouble. And since lightning storm is a rare (unlike swipe, consecration, holy nova, flamestrike, etc) you are in no way guaranteed to get it.
Personally I think it should be a class card its no more powerful than the other AOE I listed and its just as vital to the class function.
Normally I pick the class randomly in arena but I'm thinking of removing shaman from my list, despite doing well with it occasionally.
The reason is that unless you get lightning storm there are way too many situations where you can't get out of trouble. And since lightning storm is a rare (unlike swipe, consecration, holy nova, flamestrike, etc) you are in no way guaranteed to get it.
Personally I think it should be a class card its no more powerful than the other AOE I listed and its just as vital to the class function.
I think if lightning storm were a common I would play shaman in arena every time it was offered me.
EDIT: to expand, shaman has a ton of removal as class cards/commons already, as well as the best minion in the game (fire elemental). If I could reliably get AoE as well...
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Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
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See, I wish that was the case. I just went 3-3. All three loses from Shamans with so much removal it was ridiculous.
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Man, I'm bad at areana
Shaman: 6, Paladin: 4, Rogue: 7 today. The Paladin and Rogue decks had a fair amount of junk in them, so the former performed as expected, Rogue overperformed. A little disappointed in the Shaman deck: thought it'd make 8 or 9, but while it was all solid cards, it didn't really have anything to gain me advantage (I realised in retrospect), and wasn't aggro enough to sustain momentum with just good trades. It also drew horribly. Sigh.
Anyways, I didn't see many n00bs running about either. I did definitely notice some bad misplays - somebody bypassed my Shattered Sun Cleric with their Ironforge Rifleman 2 turns in a row - but I certainly didn't find a buffet of n00bs to feast on. I feel misled!
Please sir I am but a simple shaman with a poor draw. Have mercy.
And one truesilver and zero consecrates.
And my second match is against a shaman with three hexes and all the removal he could ever want.
This is why I hate arena.
I don't feel too bad, I was watching a trump video on youtube during lunch from about a week back where he went 0-3 with what I thought was a really good pally deck.
But that's OK, I still won that game due to ludicrous tempo.
Sometimes I wonder if maybe I just take the first one, the drafter won't offer me the next four. Like it just WANTS you take one, ONE, is that too much to ask?!
What's this?! My first legendary??!
...It's King Krush.
Druid time, Innervate that bad boy out on turn 1 for ridiculous tempo.
but you gotta play hunter... and i dunno if he fits the current hunter meta...
edit this guy played so bad, I couldn't get my free win
But that's the thing! I'm not crazy about hunter!
Although I haven't really given it a fair chance. Don't have too many of the useful hunter cards, though.
Well, hey. When life gives you lemons, you get 400 dust.
Time to be worst Rogue.
Yes, this. Also I think that the median is a very good value to look at, much more interesting than the mean.
I'm dead serious."
Hey, so did I!
Only mine is Golden.
Most of the wins from people who disregard most my minions and try and attack me directly. So they get me down to 5~ health before my board control and some taunt means they can't do anything.
Someone tell me how to best pay2win this shit.
I would say yes, but the hunter aggro popular right now doesn't even make it to turn nine in most games. Things are decided by seven.
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wra
Go infinite in arena!
I taunted an imp and the guy didn't realize you could attack past it (while stealthed). He just kept playing minions and then not attacking...I wish there was chat sometimes.
Also, I love Ysera.
Eh. If the probability of getting 2 or fewer wins is exactly 0.5, as is the probability of getting 3 or more, then every number between 2 and 3 (inclusive) is a median (if we're treating this as a probability distribution -- if we're treating it as a finite data set instead, then the median is exactly 2.5). Median is wonky and not very useful here.
Before I was usually getting 4-6 wins, post open beta I'm less than 3 in the last 4 arenas I played.
Four arenas just isn't very many to draw important conclusions from, and I think people are right that everyone is really out in force right now, good players and new players alike. I've definitely played a few very good players today and last night.
You missed the point. The idea of the median is useful because you finish with 3 wins and can know "I'm in the top half of finishes" or vice versa. No one cares about how to technically define a median if it falls exactly between a 2 and a 3. If you just can't stand it, imagine that someone plays one more game, and then calculate the median. Problem solved.
Except it's not that useful, because you're not going to play just one arena. You're going to play lots. What's interesting is whether your overall arena performance is in the top 50% compared to the rest of the population, and the median's not going to help there (because of aforementioned wonkiness). The mean is much more useful there.
Through this game he played his Ysera, my Ysera, my Tirion, my pyromancer+equality combo and basically stalled like a champ. But I stayed in. If there is anything my pally deck is good at it is holding out till late game. I ran out of cards just before him but I knew he dropped both of his holy novas so I dumped a hand of weenies and started beating on him. I had him down to 3 and on my board is just my Ysera(he silenced it no MC I think) and heals to 5. I hit him for 4 and he dies to fatigue damage. Last card in my hand was Tirion. I had him and Ysera most of the game but he never dropped and MC and I didn't have the clear combos anymore and didn't want to risk it.
But man nail biter of a game. I thought I was going to lose but I barely pulled it out.
The reason is that unless you get lightning storm there are way too many situations where you can't get out of trouble. And since lightning storm is a rare (unlike swipe, consecration, holy nova, flamestrike, etc) you are in no way guaranteed to get it.
Personally I think it should be a class card its no more powerful than the other AOE I listed and its just as vital to the class function.
I think if lightning storm were a common I would play shaman in arena every time it was offered me.
EDIT: to expand, shaman has a ton of removal as class cards/commons already, as well as the best minion in the game (fire elemental). If I could reliably get AoE as well...