Club PA 2.0 has arrived! If you'd like to access some extra PA content and help support the forums, check it out at patreon.com/ClubPA
The image size limit has been raised to 1mb! Anything larger than that should be linked to. This is a HARD limit, please do not abuse it.
Our new Indie Games subforum is now open for business in G&T. Go and check it out, you might land a code for a free game. If you're developing an indie game and want to post about it, follow these directions. If you don't, he'll break your legs! Hahaha! Seriously though.
Our rules have been updated and given their own forum. Go and look at them! They are nice, and there may be new ones that you didn't know about! Hooray for rules! Hooray for The System! Hooray for Conforming!

[The Resistance: Avalon] Evil Wins. Arthur strangled. Merlin indicted for campaign fraud.

1911131415

Posts

  • HedgethornHedgethorn Associate Professor of Historical Hobby Horses In the Lions' DenRegistered User regular
    That's a lot of Ayes for an untested team.

  • Mikey CTSMikey CTS Registered User regular
    Ah crap...

    // PSN: wyrd_warrior // MHW Name: Josei //
  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    This is going to fail. Once.

  • DavoidDavoid Registered User regular
    Ha ha ha that went through? Oh jeez...

    rqv6.png
  • Rhan9Rhan9 Registered User regular
    Welp.

  • jdarksunjdarksun Scion of Chaos Registered User regular
    Kiridal, Hedgethorn, Davoid, Megamek, Kaneski and Mikey CTS vote AYE. (Total: 6)
    Kaneski wrote: »
    This is going to fail. Once.
    Davoid wrote: »
    Ha ha ha that went through? Oh jeez...
    Hedgethorn wrote: »
    That's a lot of Ayes for an untested team.
    Mikey CTS wrote: »
    Ah crap...

    Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the sound reasoning and stunning logic of the "AYE"s.

    SokpuppetMikey CTS
  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    We were going to learn nothing from the sokpuppet plan. Davoid and sok on same team is failure guarantee.

    This way, goods have a chance. Phyphor is now probably the cleanest knight. Little point ladying him. Rhan, if you lady another good outside this team - maybe mikey, maybe jdark, or any other reasonable guess, we can at least survive 4th mission to lady again.

  • SokpuppetSokpuppet You only yoyo once Registered User regular
    edited January 2014
    What the actual fuck.

    Well. If (when) we see the failed mission, at least we have a rock solid badguy lineup. Kirindal, Hedgethorn, Davoid (or Rhan), Kaneski.

    If this fails, the next mission absolutely cannot contain more than one of these five people.

    Sokpuppet on
  • Mikey CTSMikey CTS Registered User regular
    I had no reason, jdark. I had been MIA for three days and felt like I already held everyone up long enough. I saw I was on the team and feel back on "I am a good guy, I am on team, I approve." I should have read more before voting. If I had seen Kaneski has on it, I would have rejected it.

    // PSN: wyrd_warrior // MHW Name: Josei //
  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    Pfft, you lot voted 'yes' on 3+1 despite almost certainty that the 3 contained a bad guy, and got nothing concrete out of it.

    Sokpuppet - tell me one thing, and feel free to give any reason, because... well retcon. When you said "I want to see a team of Kaneski and Hedge/I trust them yes I do". Why?

  • SokpuppetSokpuppet You only yoyo once Registered User regular
    I liked the way Hedge was playing at the time. It was early in the game and he was acting like a good guy. He has since gotten ultra-scummy and has a voting record that has evil plastered all over it in flashing neon.

    Same goes for you.

  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    edited January 2014
    Kaneski wrote: »
    Pfft, you lot voted 'yes' on 3+1 despite almost certainty that the 3 contained a bad guy, and got nothing concrete out of it.

    Sokpuppet - tell me one thing, and feel free to give any reason, because... well retcon. When you said "I want to see a team of Kaneski and Hedge/I trust them yes I do". Why?

    If the team has one bad guy (good chance) then there are 4 good guys left. A team of four picked from the remaining 7 (3 bad, 4 good) is almost certainly bad. 3+1 is likely to have a bad gut, sure. But it's less chance than not using them and also gives information on the first vote

    If the team has two bad guys, then you want to re-send that team to try for the double fail

    If there are no bad guys, then you guarantee one gets on mission two, which will be failed

    Phyphor on
    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    Also, since noone, and I mean LITERALLY noone paused to even say "No, Sok, we'll make our own team thanks, because you or Davoid might still be the bad", I had little choice but to try and get the team composition going this way. This way, at least, the Lady will get more beneficial use - thanks to Phyphor's rejection.

    To address an earlier accusation I missed from Jdark - regarding the Lady. Good guys want to keep it in good guy hands and only use it after mission 4 to test a loyalty of someone they don't know/not sure. If they give it to a bad guy to 'check loyalty', any FURTHER uses of the Lady are moot, since it's a bad guy using it.

  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    Sokpuppet wrote: »
    I liked the way Hedge was playing at the time. It was early in the game and he was acting like a good guy. He has since gotten ultra-scummy and has a voting record that has evil plastered all over it in flashing neon.

    Same goes for you.

    He voted yes from the outside, how is that acting good? Best you can go is act indifferent, if not bad. And what separated him from Jdark, Megamek and Kirindal? They were all mirror images of Hedge at the time.

  • SokpuppetSokpuppet You only yoyo once Registered User regular
    You can just stop now, dude. Nobody believes a word you're saying. :\
    Mission 3 fails, you're confirmed bad along with Hedge and Kirindal. Rhan/Davoid is still a coin toss, but we don't ever actually need to bring either of them along since we have 100% confirms on three out of four minions.

    jdarksunKaneskiMikey CTS
  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Kaneski wrote: »
    Pfft, you lot voted 'yes' on 3+1 despite almost certainty that the 3 contained a bad guy, and got nothing concrete out of it.

    Sokpuppet - tell me one thing, and feel free to give any reason, because... well retcon. When you said "I want to see a team of Kaneski and Hedge/I trust them yes I do". Why?

    If the team has one bad guy (good chance) then there are 4 good guys left. A team of four picked from the remaining 7 (3 bad, 4 good) is almost certainly bad. 3+1 is likely to have a bad gut, sure. But it's less chance than not using them and also gives information on the first vote

    If the team has two bad guys, then you want to re-send that team to try for the double fail

    If there are no bad guys, then you guarantee one gets on mission two, which will be failed

    Chances become irrelevant once there's a single bad guy. Having a bad guy on the 3, and then saying "less chance of a bad guy if you use the same 3" is an irrelevance at best.

    Let's concede that fishing for a second fail with a 3+1 is a good idea. I reject it, but let's suppose. Then surely there's more benefit out of watching votes for who the +1 is at any given time, rather than ramming it through with an overwhelming 'yes' and hoping for a 2/7 (with Broberon) lucky hit on the first try?

    I don't really need to argue hypotheticals. Where we ended up is exactly what happens in a first 3+1 overwhelming 'yes' vote.

  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    Sokpuppet wrote: »
    You can just stop now, dude. Nobody believes a word you're saying. :\
    Mission 3 fails, you're confirmed bad along with Hedge and Kirindal. Rhan/Davoid is still a coin toss, but we don't ever actually need to bring either of them along since we have 100% confirms on three out of four minions.

    Noone believes you either. Clearly. Otherwise this mission would be a massive wholesale reject by the good guys.

    The difference between your trustworthyness and mine - mine seems to be ruined on the sole post of "interesting" before clearing Rhan. The few gaps that people picked up along the way I've addressed, and if I haven't any - bring them on. Yours on the other hand? Voting yes on first mission AND 3+1 despite exclaiming it's probably bad, 'trusting' a now-obvious bad guy Hedge for no reason, clearing Davoid again for no reason other than my 'interesting' post, and basically assigning mind-control grade prediction powers to me.

  • jdarksunjdarksun Scion of Chaos Registered User regular
    Kaneski, you voted AYE for a mission you were absolutely certain was going to fail. That quote is on this very page.

    You're doing an awesome job trying to control the discussion through spam, but it doesn't change the facts.

    Sokpuppet
  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    edited January 2014
    jdarksun wrote: »
    Kaneski, you voted AYE for a mission you were absolutely certain was going to fail. That quote is on this very page.

    You're doing an awesome job trying to control the discussion through spam, but it doesn't change the facts.

    Imagine, for a second, that I'm a good guy: Then I also know, for certain, that a team with Davoid and Rhan would fail. And you've done nothing to dissuade, or even suggest, that wouldn't put that team up when it came to you.

    And no, I wasn't absolutely certain, though the odds were high, considering I'm not certain about you. Hedge could have been doing a double-bluff. Assigning all-goods, given the suspicions on him. Given the position and use of the Lady, I judged it to be worth the risk.

    Kaneski on
  • HedgethornHedgethorn Associate Professor of Historical Hobby Horses In the Lions' DenRegistered User regular
    edited January 2014
    I voted Aye on this mission because it was my proposal. But I sincerely believed that it would fail 1-9, as all the real bad guys tried to distance themselves from any association with my dragged-through-the-mud reputation.

    Sorry good guys, I think I just lost the game for us. :(

    Hedgethorn on
  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    edited January 2014
    I make my prediction for endgame, right now:

    1. If not enough people believe me, bad guys will win.
    2. After the reveals, I will be shown to be a good guy.
    3. I will get blamed for acting like a bad guy
    4. I will ask "where and how?"
    5. I will get pointed to 'Interesting' and nothing else.
    6. I will point out the ridiculousness and my later-revealed reason for it. Reason which netted us at least Hedgethorn.
    7. I will get assigned Mastermind powers - that I (as a bad guy) knew from the beginning how both good guys and bad guys would vote and assign teams and therefore manipulated that to get what I wanted.
    8. I will retire and live off my Mastermind powers.

    Kaneski on
  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    edited January 2014
    jdarksun wrote: »
    Kaneski, you voted AYE for a mission you were absolutely certain was going to fail. That quote is on this very page.

    Also - saying "This will fail" before seeing the result of votes and after are totally different. Holy crap, the irrationality.

    If I said "This will fail. Once" BEFORE the vote results were in - yeah, you could hang that on me. As it stands, I made a conclusion from observation and probability.

    Kaneski on
  • SokpuppetSokpuppet You only yoyo once Registered User regular
    @Megamek

    We need you on board and voting with us for mission 4 or we're boned. Could you talk to us a bit about why you voted the way you did?

  • Rhan9Rhan9 Registered User regular
    So I can Lady a player once we get the results, right? I'll wait for that.

  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Kaneski wrote: »
    jdarksun wrote: »
    Kaneski, you voted AYE for a mission you were absolutely certain was going to fail. That quote is on this very page.

    You're doing an awesome job trying to control the discussion through spam, but it doesn't change the facts.

    Imagine, for a second, that I'm a good guy: Then I also know, for certain, that a team with Davoid and Rhan would fail. And you've done nothing to dissuade, or even suggest, that wouldn't put that team up when it came to you.

    And no, I wasn't absolutely certain, though the odds were high, considering I'm not certain about you. Hedge could have been doing a double-bluff. Assigning all-goods, given the suspicions on him. Given the position and use of the Lady, I judged it to be worth the risk.

    If you are a good guy, and rhan is also, then you know any team of 4 without you and rhan is very, very, so very incredibly likely to fail unless constructed by Merlin (and even that has a chance of picking mordred)

    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
    jdarksun
  • SokpuppetSokpuppet You only yoyo once Registered User regular
    edited January 2014
    The worst thing that can happen here from an info-war standpoint is a mission success, oddly enough.
    If Kaneski lets it pass we are good and truly fucked and have to build everything from scratch. We'll be up a mission, so it's not impossible but we are going to need some serious cohesion.

    Sokpuppet on
  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Kaneski wrote: »
    jdarksun wrote: »
    Kaneski, you voted AYE for a mission you were absolutely certain was going to fail. That quote is on this very page.

    You're doing an awesome job trying to control the discussion through spam, but it doesn't change the facts.

    Imagine, for a second, that I'm a good guy: Then I also know, for certain, that a team with Davoid and Rhan would fail. And you've done nothing to dissuade, or even suggest, that wouldn't put that team up when it came to you.

    And no, I wasn't absolutely certain, though the odds were high, considering I'm not certain about you. Hedge could have been doing a double-bluff. Assigning all-goods, given the suspicions on him. Given the position and use of the Lady, I judged it to be worth the risk.

    If you are a good guy, and rhan is also, then you know any team of 4 without you and rhan is very, very, so very incredibly likely to fail unless constructed by Merlin (and even that has a chance of picking mordred)

    As it stood - 1/5 chance of a clean team, if picked randomly. Not great odds, but better odds than starting 3, and that's before votes to confirm or deny. Also, given the only voiced alternative... With the voting now in, I'm quite happy you, Phyphor, are good. In fact, there's little to suspect you throughout the game, other than your 3+1 vote. To me, that means using Lady on you is a waste - we'd have far better odds of winning if someone else is Lady'ed.

  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    Sokpuppet wrote: »
    The worst thing that can happen here from an info-war standpoint is a mission success, oddly enough.
    If Kaneski lets it pass we are good and truly fucked and have to build everything from scratch. We'll be up a mission, so it's not impossible but we are going to need some serious cohesion.

    Yes... I will use my Mastermind Powers to influence the mission to Pass... *wobble wobble wobble*

  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Oh and the proposer isn't even on the team so we are in one of the following cases:
    Hedge is good and you are good (and rhan is good) leaving only 3 goods to go on the team - FAIL
    Hedge is good and you are evil - you approve because one of your team is on the mission
    Hedge is evil and deliberately sent an evil

    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
    jdarksun
  • HedgethornHedgethorn Associate Professor of Historical Hobby Horses In the Lions' DenRegistered User regular
    I didn't deliberately send anyone. I've seen several games where the good guys lose because they misidentify one player as evil early on and then carefully assess every statement and proposal of that player for evidence against other players. I've intentionally kept my mouth shut (and proposed that team on a simple and straightforward criterion) in order to avoid wrongly implicating anyone by my association with them.

  • SokpuppetSokpuppet You only yoyo once Registered User regular
    edited January 2014
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Oh and the proposer isn't even on the team so we are in one of the following cases:
    Hedge is good and you are good (and rhan is good) leaving only 3 goods to go on the team - FAIL
    Hedge is good and you are evil - you approve because one of your team is on the mission
    Hedge is evil and deliberately sent an evil

    Go back and take a look at the votes for the whole game. Draw your own conclusions. It's extremely obvious who is who at this point, with the notable exception of the Rhan/Davoid coinflip depending on which way Kaneski bluffed it.

    The only person who might still be confused is Percival, who will have a ping on one of bad guys. It is suuuuuuper important that he now understands that Kaneski, Hedgethorn, and Kirindal are all confirmed evil at this point. If your ping is Davoid or Rhan, you have the fourth confirmed evil dude as well.

    Sokpuppet on
  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Sokpuppet wrote: »
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Oh and the proposer isn't even on the team so we are in one of the following cases:
    Hedge is good and you are good (and rhan is good) leaving only 3 goods to go on the team - FAIL
    Hedge is good and you are evil - you approve because one of your team is on the mission
    Hedge is evil and deliberately sent an evil

    Go back and take a look at the votes for the whole game. Draw your own conclusions. It's extremely obvious who is who at this point, with the notable exception of the Rhan/Davoid coinflip depending on which way Kaneski bluffed it.

    The only person who might still be confused is Percival, who will have a ping on one of bad guys.

    Then you are better at this than I am

    Besides, if someone can figure out the whole game from nothing, having starting info should help them. Percival should not be confused

    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    @Phyphor

    2 more possibilities.
    Hedge is evil and sent an all-good team expecting a rejection. After voting results - dismiss it, as he'd likely vote to reject to avoid giving the good guys the game.
    Hedge is evil and he sent more than 1 bad guy. Again, after voting result - dismiss it, as double-fail at this point is also giving the good guys the game.


    Possibility 1 and 2 - I consider (subjectively) improbable and impossible respectively.

    Benefits of Possibility 3 are: There's 1 bad guy among you 4. Your rejection gets you a 'clear', especially in light of previous voting - your approval of 3+1 is your only black mark as far as I can see. Other 3 are mostly noise, so... hard to judge, especially due to silence.

    This also means (with Hedge bad), the other 2 bad guys are down to either Sok & Davoid; or 1 out of each pairs of Sok/Davoid, Jdark and Mikey.

    And here is why I think it is alright: the Lady can clear Jdark or Mikey. This gives us a cleared voting/mission bloc - myself, Rhan, you and the cleared person. That is enough to pass mission 4. After that, the cleared person can clear a 5th for victory. And if Rhan stumbles into a bad guy with his/her Lady use - the other person is clear and we carry on.

  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    edited January 2014
    Sokpuppet wrote: »
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Oh and the proposer isn't even on the team so we are in one of the following cases:
    Hedge is good and you are good (and rhan is good) leaving only 3 goods to go on the team - FAIL
    Hedge is good and you are evil - you approve because one of your team is on the mission
    Hedge is evil and deliberately sent an evil

    Go back and take a look at the votes for the whole game. Draw your own conclusions. It's extremely obvious who is who at this point, with the notable exception of the Rhan/Davoid coinflip depending on which way Kaneski bluffed it.

    The only person who might still be confused is Percival, who will have a ping on one of bad guys. It is suuuuuuper important that he now understands that Kaneski, Hedgethorn, and Kirindal are all confirmed evil at this point. If your ping is Davoid or Rhan, you have the fourth confirmed evil dude as well.

    If you are going to condemn me based on on my early voting, you have to explain why I (a presumed bad guy) would vote the way I did; and you have to explain it without giving me Mastermind powers - i.e. "you knew it would get rejected". Edit: and if I bluffed - you have to explain the benefit of the bluff, and the benefit has to outweigh the potential consequence if it goes the other way..

    Kaneski on
  • SokpuppetSokpuppet You only yoyo once Registered User regular
    edited January 2014
    Well, I already know who one of the pings is - so I have a pretty good idea of how Percival could be in a confusing situation right now. He'll have to pick between the two camps. I can also say for certain that the 2nd ping is one of the following: Kaneski, Kirindal, Hedgethorn, Rhan, or Davoid.

    The votes to examine closely are Kaneski, Kirindal, and Hedgethorn. Very clear signals there. Plain as day - especially for the last two or three votes.

    The important thing to understand here is that you don't need to trust me. Just don't trust Kaneski.

    Sokpuppet on
  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    edited January 2014
    Well yeah, but I discounted those cases a priori as implausible behaviour at this point. I also consider case 1 substantially less likely. I'm waffling between two and three, and mostly trying to figure out why you would approve this mission given the scenarios it means. However, regardless of your alignment, I think rhan is good at this point and your plan is a good idea if we are in case 3 and still a good idea if we are in case 2 (excluding you from the teams obv)

    Phyphor on
    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    For example, I also didn't go over the "you are evil and hedge is evil" path because nothing in this game makes sense if that is the case (one of you being BROBERON excepted)

    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    Yeah, no... A good guy should never go "the bad guy is either me or X, so you shouldn't pick either". This means the good guys have to pick flawlessly in team 5 - no room for error. This presumption benefits bad guys FAR more than good guys.

  • KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    Phyphor wrote: »
    For example, I also didn't go over the "you are evil and hedge is evil" path because nothing in this game makes sense if that is the case (one of you being BROBERON excepted)

    No reason to out Hedge if I was the Bro - I already had perfectly valid targets to focus on in Sok/Davoid.

  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    edited January 2014
    I was more thinking hedge being the Bro and you latching onto a super suspicious "villager" to accuse that happened to be evil - but again incredibly unlikely given the developments

    Phyphor on
    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
Sign In or Register to comment.