I get the impression that Putin isn't in danger of losing political power regardless of how bad the situation gets, while the EU's leaders will be replaced in elections, if sanctions put too much hardship on the people. If the situation gets bad enough, you might even see the EU slowly fracture over it.
If the situation doesn't change, I suspect Ukraine will be able to buy russian gas and make russian goods, and also still join the EU,
but they'll probably lose a successionist Crimea. Escalation is my main worry.
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ButtersA glass of some milksRegistered Userregular
edited March 2014
Putin supposedly threatened to disrupt his oil supply to the rest of Europe if any sanctions are put on Russia. Now I get that the EU doesn't want a gas shortage but wouldn't that just shrink the hell out of Russia's economy? Can that threat really be taken seriously?
If a leader believes he is divorced from the consequences, he might do something like that, especially if he thought it would hurt the other parties more.
Putin supposedly threatened to disrupt his oil supply to the rest of Europe if any sanctions are put on Russia. Now I get that the EU doesn't want a gas shortage but would that just shrink the hell out of Russia's economy? Can that threat really be taken seriously?
It would demolish their economy and very possibly his government.
It can be taken a lot less seriously now that Europe has potential alternative long-term suppliers (America), too.
The problem with the European Union is that it has always struggled to find a common response to foreign events. Any such response has to be the result of consultation with twenty-seven members who all have different outlooks and interests in a situation like this (and varying ties to Russia and its economy). So far, the Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, has been chief advocate of imposing sanctions which could possibly severely damage Russia's economy, but other important leaders like Angela Merkel are against it. The German government's stance is to avoid anything which could further escalate the situation. Some of that concern seems to be based on the fear that we could be drawn into a new Cold War when relationships between Russia and the West deteriorate.
I think the US and the EU would have all the tools to force Russia to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity. But the question is where we would go from after there.
Putin supposedly threatened to disrupt his oil supply to the rest of Europe if any sanctions are put on Russia. Now I get that the EU doesn't want a gas shortage but wouldn't that just shrink the hell out of Russia's economy? Can that threat really be taken seriously?
Well Russia supplies something akin to a third or more of Europe's natural gas and oil and about a quarter of its coal. Most of the old Eastern bloc is 100% dependent on Russia for its energy. Germany gets like 50% of its oil from Russia. Now if Europe hadn't just gone through a rather mild winter this might carry more weight. That being said, I think Russia/Gazprom turned off or slowed down production of gas back in 2006 and 2009 during disputes with Ukraine and it caused a pretty big price spike and shortages in Western Europe. With sanctions being harder to resolve, Europe might start freaking out and with certain nations more dependent on others for energy, tear itself apart. I believe they've got huge shale deposits in Scotland and Poland or somesuch but the European countries seem reticent to turn to fracking to extract the gas there. So until the EU breaks down and starts pumping its own gas, as long as they import so much, Russia has them by the short and friskies no matter how much it might cost Russia long term. Honestly, I think there are levels the Russian gov't is willing to accept if it means getting even a nominal victory over Europe.
The US doesn't exactly have the moral high ground in this because they also have a habit of breaking international law.
not really no, but that doesn't make what Russia is doing right
and to be fair, the US hasn't tried to forcibly annex a country with troops it refused to acknowledge were its own
So far we have: a rejected diplomat offering to forgive debts, a blow powder magazine on a warship, firing on ghost ships, and search for nukes where there were none. We're working our way down the list of flimsiest reasons to invade. We'll get there someday.
Putin supposedly threatened to disrupt his oil supply to the rest of Europe if any sanctions are put on Russia. Now I get that the EU doesn't want a gas shortage but wouldn't that just shrink the hell out of Russia's economy? Can that threat really be taken seriously?
Well Russia supplies something akin to a third or more of Europe's natural gas and oil and about a quarter of its coal. Most of the old Eastern bloc is 100% dependent on Russia for its energy. Germany gets like 50% of its oil from Russia. Now if Europe hadn't just gone through a rather mild winter this might carry more weight. That being said, I think Russia/Gazprom turned off or slowed down production of gas back in 2006 and 2009 during disputes with Ukraine and it caused a pretty big price spike and shortages in Western Europe. With sanctions being harder to resolve, Europe might start freaking out and with certain nations more dependent on others for energy, tear itself apart. I believe they've got huge shale deposits in Scotland and Poland or somesuch but the European countries seem reticent to turn to fracking to extract the gas there. So until the EU breaks down and starts pumping its own gas, as long as they import so much, Russia has them by the short and friskies no matter how much it might cost Russia long term. Honestly, I think there are levels the Russian gov't is willing to accept if it means getting even a nominal victory over Europe.
But that's a two-way street. If Russia cuts off oil supplies they're also, you know, not making money selling oil. The US and Canada can probably ramp up oil exports in the short term to help out and I've read that most of the EU's gas reserves are at close to full capacity. I see no scenario where Russia wins trade war in either the short or long term. Putin is seriously just nuts.
The real reason nobody wants a trade war with Russia is everyone knows Russia would lose and then they become a starving, desperate nuclear power.
Russia is going about this in all the wrong ways. I can't see how they wouldn't have a big fat slice of influence in Ukraine regardless of how the Maidan uprising would have ended. I guess once you get that hand puppet ruler in place nothing else can be as sweet.
I'm not sure how true it is, but I sort of imagine Russia's economy is basically barbarism in bad suits. Weren't Russians actually literally burning their money to keep warm not too long ago?
Putin supposedly threatened to disrupt his oil supply to the rest of Europe if any sanctions are put on Russia. Now I get that the EU doesn't want a gas shortage but wouldn't that just shrink the hell out of Russia's economy? Can that threat really be taken seriously?
Well Russia supplies something akin to a third or more of Europe's natural gas and oil and about a quarter of its coal. Most of the old Eastern bloc is 100% dependent on Russia for its energy. Germany gets like 50% of its oil from Russia. Now if Europe hadn't just gone through a rather mild winter this might carry more weight. That being said, I think Russia/Gazprom turned off or slowed down production of gas back in 2006 and 2009 during disputes with Ukraine and it caused a pretty big price spike and shortages in Western Europe. With sanctions being harder to resolve, Europe might start freaking out and with certain nations more dependent on others for energy, tear itself apart. I believe they've got huge shale deposits in Scotland and Poland or somesuch but the European countries seem reticent to turn to fracking to extract the gas there. So until the EU breaks down and starts pumping its own gas, as long as they import so much, Russia has them by the short and friskies no matter how much it might cost Russia long term. Honestly, I think there are levels the Russian gov't is willing to accept if it means getting even a nominal victory over Europe.
But that's a two-way street. If Russia cuts off oil supplies they're also, you know, not making money selling oil. The US and Canada can probably ramp up oil exports in the short term to help out and I've read that most of the EU's gas reserves are at close to full capacity. I see no scenario where Russia wins trade war in either the short or long term. Putin is seriously just nuts.
The real reason nobody wants a trade war with Russia is everyone knows Russia would lose and then they become a starving, desperate nuclear power.
The implication is that Putin would be willing to accept completely destroying the Russian economy to "stick it to the West." Whether or not that's actually true is... I mean, Putin would have to be an idiot to do that but he'd also had to have been an idiot to invade Ukraine and and yet ostensibly "not-Russian" soldiers are occupying military bases throughout the peninsula. Also it's best not to underestimate how even the idea of widespread gas shortages could spread damaging ripples throughout Europe's economy. Europe, on the whole, won't risk that if they don't have to. But yes, Russia would suffer most.
We need to protect the ethnic Americans living in Vancouver
If you'd said Toronto, we might have been willing to negotiate
Is that in Quebec? Cuz fuck that, keep it.
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Indie Winterdie KräheRudi Hurzlmeier (German, b. 1952)Registered Userregular
as an aside, there are reports that debris of the missing Malaysian plane that went missing a day ago and is suspected to have been the victim of some sort of terrorist attack have been found
From what I understand the typical russian citizen had better living conditions and income than ukraine and most former soviets. Then again, Ukraine was basically a mafia run state, from what I've read about the Yanukovych clan's dealing with companies. Basically "Pay us our cut or we will steal control of your business, and give it someone who will."
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
as an aside, there are reports that debris of the missing Malaysian plane that went missing a day ago and is suspected to have been the victim of some sort of terrorist attack have been found
It was more likely catastrophic structural integrity failure
I love that the day Putin announced these were not Russian solders, the BBC interviewed one who said "Yes, I'm a Russian solider, my name is "name" and yes this isn't a great thing we're doing but we're just following orders"
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If the situation doesn't change, I suspect Ukraine will be able to buy russian gas and make russian goods, and also still join the EU,
but they'll probably lose a successionist Crimea. Escalation is my main worry.
It would demolish their economy and very possibly his government.
It can be taken a lot less seriously now that Europe has potential alternative long-term suppliers (America), too.
democracy
team spirit
Mishka!
Twitch (I stream most days of the week)
Twitter (mean leftist discourse)
only without the stigma of being Putin, especially resulting after whatever the hell happens with all of this
Twitch (I stream most days of the week)
Twitter (mean leftist discourse)
Twitch (I stream most days of the week)
Twitter (mean leftist discourse)
Well Russia supplies something akin to a third or more of Europe's natural gas and oil and about a quarter of its coal. Most of the old Eastern bloc is 100% dependent on Russia for its energy. Germany gets like 50% of its oil from Russia. Now if Europe hadn't just gone through a rather mild winter this might carry more weight. That being said, I think Russia/Gazprom turned off or slowed down production of gas back in 2006 and 2009 during disputes with Ukraine and it caused a pretty big price spike and shortages in Western Europe. With sanctions being harder to resolve, Europe might start freaking out and with certain nations more dependent on others for energy, tear itself apart. I believe they've got huge shale deposits in Scotland and Poland or somesuch but the European countries seem reticent to turn to fracking to extract the gas there. So until the EU breaks down and starts pumping its own gas, as long as they import so much, Russia has them by the short and friskies no matter how much it might cost Russia long term. Honestly, I think there are levels the Russian gov't is willing to accept if it means getting even a nominal victory over Europe.
not really no, but that doesn't make what Russia is doing right
and to be fair, the US hasn't tried to forcibly annex a country with troops it refused to acknowledge were its own
So far we have: a rejected diplomat offering to forgive debts, a blow powder magazine on a warship, firing on ghost ships, and search for nukes where there were none. We're working our way down the list of flimsiest reasons to invade. We'll get there someday.
If you'd said Toronto, we might have been willing to negotiate
But that's a two-way street. If Russia cuts off oil supplies they're also, you know, not making money selling oil. The US and Canada can probably ramp up oil exports in the short term to help out and I've read that most of the EU's gas reserves are at close to full capacity. I see no scenario where Russia wins trade war in either the short or long term. Putin is seriously just nuts.
The real reason nobody wants a trade war with Russia is everyone knows Russia would lose and then they become a starving, desperate nuclear power.
Is that in Quebec? Cuz fuck that, keep it.
It was more likely catastrophic structural integrity failure
Nah, we totally have the high ground on this
Putin's a shit
Jesus
No, it's the capital city of Ontario.
After all these years, I still don't know how to pronounce that.
Ore-like a boat paddle and dervs - like in dervish
This is the only video on Youtube which seems to have the correct French pronunciation.
now you aren't even trying.