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[Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370]

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Posts

  • ArchangleArchangle Registered User regular
    edited March 2014
    I read the "damage from previous incident" thing, but it was some random commenter who claimed to have been "following the flight" and that it had dropped 200 feet immediately before it lost contact... I just dismissed it as the usual internet Batman impersonator. It's not without precedent though - Air France Flight 4590 was found to have been caused by damage from a collision with part of another plane.

    From a brief skim of other incidents, it's most likely to have had pilot error involved - most incidents tend to occur just around take off/landing which means they don't have as much altitude as they do in cruise, and so have less time to recover. In terms of mechanical failure during cruise, JAL Flight 123 managed to keep airborne for almost half an hour despite explosive decompression of the bulkhead. The Egyptian authorities have maintained that EgyptAir Flight 990 in the Atlantic was due to mechanical failure, although the US investigation concluded that it was due to the co-pilot intentionally crashing the plane.

    Possibly the most analogous disaster is Air France Flight 447 , which disappeared in the Atlantic. It took 5 days to locate and start recovering bodies, and almost 2 years to recover the black box flight recorders. The incident was ultimately determined to have been caused by pilot error following a 1-minute incident where the pitot tubes which give airspeed information were iced over.

    Archangle on
  • KageraKagera Imitating the worst people. Since 2004Registered User regular
    There is precedent for a bad repair leading to a crash years later. From what I read JAL 123 was such a flight where the bad repair held up seven years before causing the incident.

    Of course I've also read the damage caused to the wing, if indeed it was this plane, would not have been enough to cause enough damage to result in such sudden loss of contact.

    There is another flight where another problem would have caused such an incident.
    While on a flight from New York to Paris, France, the aircraft exploded at FL 130, broke up and crashed into the Atlantic Ocean off Long Island, N.Y. The NTSB determined that the probable cause of the accident was an explosion of the center wing fuel tank resulting from ignition of the flammable fuel/air mixture in the tank. The source of ignition energy for the explosion could not be determined with certainty but, of the sources evaluated by the investigation, the most likely was a short circuit outside of the center wing tank that allowed excessive voltage to enter it through electrical wiring associated with the fuel quantity indication system. All 230 aboard were killed.

    My neck, my back, my FUPA and my crack.
  • djlowballerdjlowballer Registered User regular
    My wife was awoken by a lot of calls this weekend for people worried about me. I was booked on this flight until about two weeks ago because I decided to go back home to SG instead but I never told my relatives overseas about the change. The emotions one feels when people are calling to offer condolences for your own death are not comfortable.

    I fly through KL often so some bits of info. Its entirely possible to cross immigration with a different passport than you booked for your flight. I have two passports, flights are booked on A but I clear malaysia immigration with B since it saves spaces for chops in my A passport which I need for other countries. Once you clear immigration nobody looks at your passport. There is a bulk security check after immigration with no check and a more comprehensive check at the gate which only asks for your boarding pass. The airline only asks to see your boarding pass so it wouldn't be too difficult to get on a plane under normal circumstances much less when taking into account how laid back KLIA security is. I fly red-eyes and early AM into/out of KLIA and have walked through checkpoints with staff sleeping at the xray machines.

    The fact people boarded with fake credentials isn't as alarming. All the reports I have read say the documents were stolen in Thailand. Not surprising considering street vendors in Bangkok sell everything from passports to green cards. Most people carrying these documents are going to be attempting to enter illegally for work. Where I am confused is how these stolen passports received Chinese visas. Most embassies, especially highly busy ones like in KL/SG, don't issue visas to tourists. You need to produce an ID or residience visa. Something doesn't add up.

    I will still fly MH as its a pretty good airline but I will feel a bit better once some root cause comes out. Terrorism is a better outcome IMO, at least then we know the airframes are ok.

    ShadowfireYogoSamphisRMS OceanicXaquinjoshofalltradesKamarTheColonelSCREECH OF THE FARGKristmas KthulhuStranger Danger
  • ArchangleArchangle Registered User regular
    edited March 2014
    My wife was awoken by a lot of calls this weekend for people worried about me. I was booked on this flight until about two weeks ago because I decided to go back home to SG instead but I never told my relatives overseas about the change. The emotions one feels when people are calling to offer condolences for your own death are not comfortable.

    I fly through KL often so some bits of info. Its entirely possible to cross immigration with a different passport than you booked for your flight. I have two passports, flights are booked on A but I clear malaysia immigration with B since it saves spaces for chops in my A passport which I need for other countries. Once you clear immigration nobody looks at your passport. There is a bulk security check after immigration with no check and a more comprehensive check at the gate which only asks for your boarding pass. The airline only asks to see your boarding pass so it wouldn't be too difficult to get on a plane under normal circumstances much less when taking into account how laid back KLIA security is. I fly red-eyes and early AM into/out of KLIA and have walked through checkpoints with staff sleeping at the xray machines.

    The fact people boarded with fake credentials isn't as alarming. All the reports I have read say the documents were stolen in Thailand. Not surprising considering street vendors in Bangkok sell everything from passports to green cards. Most people carrying these documents are going to be attempting to enter illegally for work. Where I am confused is how these stolen passports received Chinese visas. Most embassies, especially highly busy ones like in KL/SG, don't issue visas to tourists. You need to produce an ID or residience visa. Something doesn't add up.

    I will still fly MH as its a pretty good airline but I will feel a bit better once some root cause comes out. Terrorism is a better outcome IMO, at least then we know the airframes are ok.
    Glad to hear you're okay. There were also apparently 4 people who checked in but didn't board the plane, and their bags were removed before departure.

    Regarding the passports/chinese visas - I don't think they had entry visas, I think they were transit only through to Europe (and a further transit after that). Again, not overly suspicious in the terrorism sense (why would they book ongoing tickets if they weren't planning on finishing the first leg? EDIT - why would they book TWO ongoing legs if they weren't planning on finishing the first leg). Honestly, I hope it's not terrorism - whenever there's an incident there's always some kneejerk reaction that just gives frequent flyers a headache (shoescans, no gels) etc. which they usually relax once they realize how BS it is. The last thing I want is for 20 minute immigration/emigration queues to become 40 minute queues because everyone has to be checked against 10 different international databases.

    Given past history of the last few major air disasters, I'm leaning more towards Pilot Error rather than terrorism or a problem with the airframe.

    Archangle on
  • mcdermottmcdermott Registered User regular
    why would they book ongoing tickets if they weren't planning on finishing the first leg?

    You just answered your own question. If you know, for instance, that one-way tickets are more likely to flag for further search you pay the extra for round-trip. If you know that tickets with continuing connections to Europe are less likely to undergo enhanced scrutiny, same thing.

    I agree it's still highly unlikely, just addressing that one specific point.

    OneAngryPossumshrykea5ehrenKristmas Kthulhu
  • djlowballerdjlowballer Registered User regular
    Well I would be suspicious of any flight to Europe transiting through Beijing, moreso if it was to an onward destination. Almost every major carrier to Europe is direct or transits in the middle east. The logical route would be KL-SG->??. Flights to Africa and the middle east don't transit in Europe usually and flying KL->Beijing->EU for a US trip is sadistic.

  • ArchangleArchangle Registered User regular
    Well I would be suspicious of any flight to Europe transiting through Beijing, moreso if it was to an onward destination. Almost every major carrier to Europe is direct or transits in the middle east. The logical route would be KL-SG->??. Flights to Africa and the middle east don't transit in Europe usually and flying KL->Beijing->EU for a US trip is sadistic.
    Honestly, it depends on a wide number of factors such as the phase of the moon and the airspeed of an unladen swallow. For example, I'm a consultant and we usually get temporary visas to work on projects rather than permanent ones - some of the time that means we have to go to any other arbitrary country and work remotely if the visa runs out before the project does. I did a stint in Taiwan via Hong Kong because it was cheaper to get a ticket transiting through Hong Kong than it was to just Hong Kong. Don't ask me why, that's just how the tickets were priced. I've also done London-Frankfurt-Singapore-Sydney, and my boss is currently doing a 5-jump trip from Argentina to Philippines, transiting through US, Korea and Taiwan because again that happens to be cheaper (she complained loudly about that one).

  • ronyaronya Arrrrrf. the ivory tower's basementRegistered User regular
    Europe-Asia-Australia routes can be weird because the airline industry is still relatively regulated, with a lot of flag carriers, so you can get a lot of subsidies if you're willing to fly out of your way to some subsidized national airport. e.g., a Chinese airline/codeshare (as it was in this case) flying home to Beijing and then outbound again to Europe.

    aRkpc.gif
  • XixXix Miami/LosAngeles/MoscowRegistered User regular
    They are saying the plane may have "disintegrated" in the air, a little unsettling.

    I too would prefer terrorism over mechanical failure. Since my company pays for business/first class seats on most flights I feel safer knowing I'm close to the pilots and could at least attempt to protect them in a hijacker situation.

    Nothing breaks my faith in air travel though like mechanical failure or pilot errors.

  • r4dr3zr4dr3z Registered User regular
    I don't get why they keep reporting the names of the passport theft victims. Some reports even have their pictures. It's like they're trying to blame them for the plane crash or something.

  • XixXix Miami/LosAngeles/MoscowRegistered User regular
    edited March 2014
    A European diplomat in Kuala Lumpur cautioned that the Malaysian capital was an Asian hub for illegal migrants, many of whom used false documents and complex routes including via Beijing or West Africa to reach a final destination in Europe.

    "You shouldn't automatically think that the fact there were two people on the plane with false passports had anything to do with the disappearance of the plane," the diplomat said.

    "The more you know about the role of Kuala Lumpur in this chain, the more doubtful you are of the chances of a linkage."

    A Thai travel agent who arranged the tickets for the two passengers using the stolen passports said she had booked them on the flight via Beijing because they were the cheapest tickets, the Financial Times reported.

    The travel agent in the resort of Pattaya said an Iranian business contact she knew only as "Mr Ali" had asked her to book tickets for the two men on March 1.

    She had initially booked them on other airlines but those reservations expired and on March 6, Mr Ali had asked her to book them again. She told the newspaper she did not think Mr Ali, who paid her in cash and booked tickets with her regularly, was linked to terrorism.


    So maybe not terrorism...

    U.S. Spy Satellites reported seeing no signs of an explosion in the region around that time.

    The plane probably just started falling apart, and as the pilots turned it around to get back to the airport it failed catastrophically and sent everyone plunging to their doom. A terrifying way to die. But why! Why did it fall apart, and could there have been any way to prevent it? We may never really know.

    Xix on
  • XixXix Miami/LosAngeles/MoscowRegistered User regular
    They confirmed the oil slick is NOT related to the plane!

    Neither is any of the debris they found!

    They've officially found nothing related to the plane!

    HOLY SHIT

  • Gabriel_PittGabriel_Pitt (effective against the Irish) Registered User regular
    Probably because that's the 'juiciest' bit of the story they can come up with copy on right now.

  • TraceTrace GNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam We Registered User regular
    The fact that the flight appears to have turned around is the juiciest to me.

    Retaba
  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Trace wrote: »
    The fact that the flight appears to have turned around is the juiciest to me.

    Probably started to head to one of the alternate airports

    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
  • XixXix Miami/LosAngeles/MoscowRegistered User regular
    Story doesn't add up.

  • RetabaRetaba A Cultist Registered User regular
    The thing for me is that wouldn't they of radioed? Did they?

  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    Retaba wrote: »
    The thing for me is that wouldn't they of radioed? Did they?

    Apparently the standard procedure is to prioritize control of the aircraft before using the radio. Would tend to indicate that whatever happened happened very suddenly, though.

  • Edith UpwardsEdith Upwards Registered User regular
    r4dr3z wrote: »
    I don't get why they keep reporting the names of the passport theft victims. Some reports even have their pictures. It's like they're trying to blame them for the plane crash or something.

    Some people don't know that planes aren't superman.

  • TraceTrace GNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam We Registered User regular
    http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/10/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
    According to Thai police officials, an Iranian man by the name of Kazem Ali purchased the tickets for two friends who he said wanted to return home to Europe. While Ali made the initial booking by telephone, either Ali or someone acting on his behalf paid for the tickets in cash, according to police.

  • UrQuanLord88UrQuanLord88 Registered User regular
    edited March 2014
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/11/world/asia/hunt-for-missing-malaysian-jet.html?hp
    Supachai Phuikaewkhum, the chief of police in Pattaya, said in an interview late on Monday that Mr. Ali, who formerly lived in Pattaya and operated a restaurant there but now appears to have moved back to Iran, was a regular customer of the travel agency. Mr. Supachai said Mr. Ali called the agency from an Iranian telephone number and asked for the cheapest fares available from Kuala Lumpur to two separate destinations in Europe.

    The staff suggested that a flight with several stops would be cheaper, so he picked that route,” Mr. Supachai said.

    That isn't too suspicious

    Also, China is deploying satellites to aid search efforts

    UrQuanLord88 on
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  • XixXix Miami/LosAngeles/MoscowRegistered User regular
    What the fuck...

    The phones for the passengers apparently still ring when called, but no one picks up.

    However, 19 families have signed a statement saying their calls got through but then was hung up immediately!

    HOLY SHIT!

  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    The order of priority is Aviation, Navigation, Communication. So if things started to fall apart fairly fast, no, they wouldn't have.

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  • KageraKagera Imitating the worst people. Since 2004Registered User regular
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    The order of priority is Aviation, Navigation, Communication. So if things started to fall apart fairly fast, no, they wouldn't have.

    Which makes sense because you want the crew focusing on not crashing instead of telling people who cannot really do anything what is going on (that's what the CVR is for in a worse case scenario).



    My neck, my back, my FUPA and my crack.
  • Dunadan019Dunadan019 Registered User regular
    so the malaysian military is now saying that the plane changed course, dropped altitude and was tracked into the straight of malacca (the other side of malasia)

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/us-malaysiaairlines-flight-idUSBREA2701720140311

  • DasUberEdwardDasUberEdward Registered User regular
    I am not excited for this cell phone thing to take off.

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  • ArchangleArchangle Registered User regular
    I am not excited for this cell phone thing to take off.
    Honestly, the families haven't been doing themselves any favors with their actions. If Malaysian Air don't give them hourly updates, they complain of not being in the loop. If Malaysian Air give them an update that says "We still haven't found anything", they complain why they're being given updates if there's nothing to update. They openly accuse the airline officials of lying without presenting any evidence, and throw water bottles during briefings.

    Regarding the cell phone thing, I can't think of a viable scenario where (a) The plane was in range of mobile networks to which the SIMs could connect for a sustained period, (b) In a condition that left the phones in working condition, (c) But the passenger unable to operate them, (d) but the passenger was still presumably able to switch them on (it's true that some people ignore the "switch mobile to flight mode" warnings, so it could have been on the entire time, but if the mobile can't find a signal it will aggressively search for a network rapidly draining the battery so it's unlikely to have been operating for that period of time). Combined with some of the families' erratic behaviour, I'm not inclined to give "I dialed the phone and it rang" much weight (although I do agree that it should be followed up).

  • ronyaronya Arrrrrf. the ivory tower's basementRegistered User regular
    edited March 2014
    Dunadan019 wrote: »
    so the malaysian military is now saying that the plane changed course, dropped altitude and was tracked into the straight of malacca (the other side of malasia)

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/us-malaysiaairlines-flight-idUSBREA2701720140311

    there's a report circulating that the chief of staff has denied making such a statement to Berita Harian

    ronya on
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  • XixXix Miami/LosAngeles/MoscowRegistered User regular
    Archangle wrote: »
    I am not excited for this cell phone thing to take off.
    Honestly, the families haven't been doing themselves any favors with their actions. If Malaysian Air don't give them hourly updates, they complain of not being in the loop. If Malaysian Air give them an update that says "We still haven't found anything", they complain why they're being given updates if there's nothing to update. They openly accuse the airline officials of lying without presenting any evidence, and throw water bottles during briefings.

    Regarding the cell phone thing, I can't think of a viable scenario where (a) The plane was in range of mobile networks to which the SIMs could connect for a sustained period, (b) In a condition that left the phones in working condition, (c) But the passenger unable to operate them, (d) but the passenger was still presumably able to switch them on (it's true that some people ignore the "switch mobile to flight mode" warnings, so it could have been on the entire time, but if the mobile can't find a signal it will aggressively search for a network rapidly draining the battery so it's unlikely to have been operating for that period of time). Combined with some of the families' erratic behaviour, I'm not inclined to give "I dialed the phone and it rang" much weight (although I do agree that it should be followed up).

    Phones don't ring if they are off, and there are some families who definitely were able to get the ring tone after dialing the number, however it seems that this may be because of a quirk in how the cell phone networks work instead of evidence that the phone may still be functional.

    If the phones were functional, and this was not a network effect, it could mean the passengers may be alive, but otherwise detained against their free will. A better theory to cling to than believing a loved one is completely dead in pieces at the bottom of a sea.

  • TraceTrace GNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam We Registered User regular
    The Malaysian Air Force has traced the last known location of Malaysia Airlines flight 370 to a spot above Pulau Perak, a very small island in the Straits of Malacca and hundreds of miles from the usual Kuala Lumpur to Beijing flight path, according to a senior Malaysian Air Force official. The official declined to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the media.

    If the Malaysian Air Force data cited by the source is correct, the aircraft was flying the opposite direction from its scheduled destination and on the opposite side of the Malay Peninsula from its scheduled route.

    http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/11/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

  • ronyaronya Arrrrrf. the ivory tower's basementRegistered User regular
    OFFICIAL STATEMENT BY CHIEF OF ROYAL MALAYSIAN AIR FORCE ON
    BERITA HARIAN NEWS ARTICLE DATED 11th MARCH 2014 ON SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS IN THE STRAITS OF MALACCA

    1. I refer to the Berita Harian news article dated 11th March 2014 on Search and Rescue Operations in the Straits of Malacca which (in Bahasa Malaysia) referred to me as making the following statements:

    "The RMAF Chief confirmed that RMAF Butterworth airbase detected the location signal of the airliner as indicating that it turned back from its original heading to the direction of Kota Bahru, Kelantan, and was believed to have pass through the airspace of the East Coast of and Northern Peninsular Malaysia.

    The last time the plane was detected by the air control tower was in the vicinity of Pulau Perak in the Straits of Malacca at 2.40 in the morning before the signal disappeared without any trace, he said."

    2. I wish to state that I did not make any such statements as above, what occurred was that the Berita Harian journalist asked me if such an incident occurred as detailed in their story, however I did not give any answer to the question, instead what I said to the journalist was “Please refer to the statement which I have already made on 9 March 2014, during the press conference with the Chief of Defence Force at the Sama-Sama Hotel, Kuala Lumpur International Airport”.

    3. What I stated during that press conference was,

    The RMAF has not ruled out the possibility of an air turn back on a reciprocal heading before the aircraft vanished from the radar and this resulted in the Search and Rescue Operations being widen to the vicinity of the waters of Pulau Pinang.

    4. I request this misreporting be amended and corrected to prevent further misinterpretations of what is clearly an inaccurate and incorrect report.

    5. Currently the RMAF is examining and analyzing all possibilities as regards to the airliner’s flight paths subsequent to its disappearance. However for the time being, it would not be appropriate for the RMAF to issue any official conclusions as to the aircraft’s flight path until a high amount of certainty and verification is achieved. However all ongoing search operations are at the moment being conducted to cover all possible areas where the aircraft could have gone down in order to ensure no possibility is overlooked.

    6. In addition, I would like to state to the media that all information and developments will be released via official statements and press conferences as soon as possible and when appropriate. Our current efforts are focused upon on finding the aircraft as soon as possible.

    Thank You

    GENERAL TAN SRI DATO’SRI RODZALI BIN DAUD RMAF
    Chief of Royal Malaysian Air Force

    Released On:

    11 March 14
    Kuala Lumpur

    aRkpc.gif
  • XixXix Miami/LosAngeles/MoscowRegistered User regular
    That picture CNN posted of the map showing the plane's course is pretty damning if accurate. That plane was not merely making a U-Turn it was heading somewhere completely different. It even crossed back over Malaysia!

    I really hope we find out what the hell happened.

  • TraceTrace GNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam We Registered User regular
    So apparently the flight stopped sending out transponder codes to identify itself before it vanished.

    Was that already mentioned I can't remember?

  • KageraKagera Imitating the worst people. Since 2004Registered User regular
    Well that was what people were implying he said which he denies he didn't actually answer the question though. He didn't deny that military tracking stations had mh370 on its radar for two hours after the civilian radar lost it.

    To quote Kirk: "This is damned peculiar."

    My neck, my back, my FUPA and my crack.
  • RchanenRchanen Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    The Democrats aren't crazy but they are still, you know, running the US and it's foreign policy. Which is in the "you don't have a global hegemony without bombing a few eggs" wheelhouse.
  • XixXix Miami/LosAngeles/MoscowRegistered User regular
    edited March 2014
    The plane was flying for 4-5 hours after it stopped sending communications, satellite signals say.

    The data reporting system and the transponder were both shut down 14 minutes apart from each other. This suggests manual intervention.

    THE UNITED STATES BELIEVES THE PLANE DID NOT FAIL CATASTROPHICALLY, THAT IT WAS DELIBERATELY BROUGHT DOWN AND MAY HAVE EVEN LANDED SOMEWHERE.

    Xix on
  • SteevLSteevL What can I do for you? Registered User regular
    edited March 2014
    Is it just me or is this thread kind of messed up right now? I don't think the latest post is showing up. I have a feeling this reply won't show up.

    Quite a mystery with this flight, though. Already hearing a dumb conspiracy theory about it from a family member. Something about "Maybe the plane was captured so they can fit it with a bomb and use it in a terrorist attack!"

    Or maybe the plane crashed.

    edit: Ah, mine did show up.

    SteevL on
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  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    Did you point out that a hijacked plane IS a bomb?

  • ChrysisChrysis Registered User regular
    Tri-Optimum reminds you that there are only one-hundred-sixty-three shopping days until Christmas. Just 1 extra work cycle twice a week will give you the spending money you need to make this holiday a very special one.
  • furlionfurlion Riskbreaker Lea MondeRegistered User regular
    I am utterly flabbergasted that an object that size, and with that level of electronic interactions with the world around it, could just vanish. If someone had made a movie with this as the plot I would have scoffed at the idea as being so far fetched it would ruin my suspension of disbelief. Also I have already started to hear paranoid rumors from my co-workers and it is insane what people will dream up in absence of any actual evidence. I really hope they start finding out information soon, I cannot imagine being a family member of one of the people on the plane. The lack of information must be excruciating.

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