This is pretty much the opposite of the way things work. All teams will regress towards having a .500 record in one run games. The good teams are the ones that will a lot of blowout wins because that means they are scoring way more runs than they are giving up. And even though Pythagorean records aren't exactly the best way to measure a team's true talent, they're certainly a good starting point.
One-run games do tend to bring all teams closer to .500, but the best teams still win one-run games more often than other teams.
Well that's obvious and intuitive. Potent teams will win by a lot more often than they win by a little. But the point is they don't dominate 5 run games and then suck in 1 run games. .600 ball clubs do well in both.
I completely disagree that all teams regress toward .500 in one run games. There's recent examples that show that teams can dominate in that area. Pretty sure last years orioles were among them. Or was it 2012?
This is pretty much the opposite of the way things work. All teams will regress towards having a .500 record in one run games. The good teams are the ones that will a lot of blowout wins because that means they are scoring way more runs than they are giving up. And even though Pythagorean records aren't exactly the best way to measure a team's true talent, they're certainly a good starting point.
One-run games do tend to bring all teams closer to .500, but the best teams still win one-run games more often than other teams.
Well that's obvious and intuitive. Potent teams will win by a lot more often than they win by a little. But the point is they don't dominate 5 run games and then suck in 1 run games. .600 ball clubs do well in both.
I completely disagree that all teams regress toward .500 in one run games. There's recent examples that show that teams can dominate in that area. Pretty sure last years orioles were among them. Or was it 2012?
It was the 2012 Orioles. Last year's Orioles couldn't sustain that record in 1 run games, and ended up missing the playoffs.
This is pretty much the opposite of the way things work. All teams will regress towards having a .500 record in one run games. The good teams are the ones that will a lot of blowout wins because that means they are scoring way more runs than they are giving up. And even though Pythagorean records aren't exactly the best way to measure a team's true talent, they're certainly a good starting point.
One-run games do tend to bring all teams closer to .500, but the best teams still win one-run games more often than other teams.
Well that's obvious and intuitive. Potent teams will win by a lot more often than they win by a little. But the point is they don't dominate 5 run games and then suck in 1 run games. .600 ball clubs do well in both.
I completely disagree that all teams regress toward .500 in one run games. There's recent examples that show that teams can dominate in that area. Pretty sure last years orioles were among them. Or was it 2012?
I'm not sure there are teams that will have a lot of blowout wins and also have a lot of close losses over the course of the year. That might happen early in the year, but one way or the other that's going to be corrected over the year for the most part, and usually it's going to be .500 record regression and not the other way. But I'm sure there are outliers where teams will have that happen over the course of a season, and it might have something to do with particular skills that team possesses, like really good hitting but a crappy bullpen, where they can maul mediocre pitchers but get stopped by great pitchers, and can't hold on the close games. But I don't think that's universal constant for what you're suggesting. A study of that might be interesting though, or if you can find one that already exists. It's hard to search or remember every article out there.
0
AngryThe glory I had witnessedwas just a sleight of handRegistered Userregular
I finally saw the replay of the Carlos Gomez thing from yesterday, and I'll agree that the extracurricular helmet swinging stuff was really stupid, but jesus christ do baseball players need to stop acting like petulant children.
A guy flips his bat, or stares at the ball for a second too long, or jogs too fast, or jogs too slow, or heaven forbid he cracks a smile and everyone suddenly gets all offended.
I agree in principle.
But Carlos Gomez does it all the time and then ALWAYS gets pissy when he's called on it. If you're going to stand there and admire your long fly ball that didn't leave the park, you don't get to be mad when the pitcher walks over to you and calls you a fucking idiot.
0
AngryThe glory I had witnessedwas just a sleight of handRegistered Userregular
The 2012 Orioles are the perfect example of one run winning team regressing to the mean.
It's the same as in Hockey. No team, not even the best teams are able to reproduce their results in one goal games. The Avalanche this year have a RIDICULOUS winning percentage in one goal games this year. They play .500 or worse in those games next season and they aren't in the playoffs.
yeah but regression to the mean doesn't really mean much if you're just assessing a team for that season
I will channel my inner Joe Morgan here and claim that it's fair in my opinion to say that the ability to have "luck" in close games has more to do with the finer attributes of a team than just chance. And year over year variances can be explained by changes in rosters and even in players themselves
Solid late game bullpens, clutch hitting, reliable defense, these things that help win close games are things you can chart in a season. Whether or not they will be there next season is not relevant if you're talking about playoffs and championships
The 2012 Orioles are the perfect example of one run winning team regressing to the mean.
It's the same as in Hockey. No team, not even the best teams are able to reproduce their results in one goal games. The Avalanche this year have a RIDICULOUS winning percentage in one goal games this year. They play .500 or worse in those games next season and they aren't in the playoffs.
The thing to remember about the 2012 Orioles vs the 2013 is this: A lot of people said that the 2013 Orioles would be a sub .500 team again because they would regress to the mean in one-run games. They DID regress to the mean in one-run games, in a real way in 2013.
However they were still in the playoff hunt pretty much all the way until the tail-end of the season.
The 2012 Orioles weren't good because they won so many one-run games, they won so many one-run games because they were (are) a pretty dang good team.
yeah but regression to the mean doesn't really mean much if you're just assessing a team for that season
I will channel my inner Joe Morgan here and claim that it's fair in my opinion to say that the ability to have "luck" in close games has more to do with the finer attributes of a team than just chance. And year over year variances can be explained by changes in rosters and even in players themselves
Solid late game bullpens, clutch hitting, reliable defense, these things that help win close games are things you can chart in a season. Whether or not they will be there next season is not relevant if you're talking about playoffs and championships
It really is a little bit of column A and column B. The Orioles' pen in 2012 was ungodly
In 2012 the Orioles bullpen had an OPS+ against of 89
In innings 7-9 opponents OPS'd 683 against them with an OBP of 309
Jim Johnson had 50 saves. In 37 of his 41 appearances that year he faced only three, or fewer batters. He only faced more than five batters seven times all year. He only gave up three homers all year.
FortyTwostrongest man in the world The Land of Pleasant Living Registered Userregular
edited April 2014
Guys, I'm pretty much not moving Strasburg unless I get super desperate. He is basically a guy that can win me a weeks' worth of pitching match-ups on his own.
FortyTwostrongest man in the world The Land of Pleasant Living Registered Userregular
I'm not looking to make a blockbuster move here - but I am willing to trade some pieces that can help others. Some of you really got bit by the injury bug:
Straily, Feldman, Chavez, Quintana - They are on the block. I'm not going to ask for the moon, but I am looking for some more decent OF, solid OBP and some SB
Guys, I'm pretty much not moving Strasburg unless I get super desperate. He is basically a guy that can win me a weeks' worth of pitching match-ups on his own.
I don't think you're allowed to say that when I just beat you last week on the strength of my pitching.
3DS: 2981-5304-3227
0
FortyTwostrongest man in the world The Land of Pleasant Living Registered Userregular
Guys, I'm pretty much not moving Strasburg unless I get super desperate. He is basically a guy that can win me a weeks' worth of pitching match-ups on his own.
I don't think you're allowed to say that when I just beat you last week on the strength of my pitching.
Yeah, but when two starters give me shit games that week - that just really kinda sucks. Not a lot I could do with that. For example, see Sweeney this week with Buchholz.
Guys, I'm pretty much not moving Strasburg unless I get super desperate. He is basically a guy that can win me a weeks' worth of pitching match-ups on his own.
I don't think you're allowed to say that when I just beat you last week on the strength of my pitching.
Yeah, but when two starters give me shit games that week - that just really kinda sucks. Not a lot I could do with that. For example, see Sweeney this week with Buchholz.
I'm just going to chalk it up as him not being used to starting the dumb Patriot's Day thing where the Red Sox play at 11 AM instead of a reasonable hour. Saturday he should have a better start.
Guys, I'm pretty much not moving Strasburg unless I get super desperate. He is basically a guy that can win me a weeks' worth of pitching match-ups on his own.
I actually offered you Puig for Strasburg a couple weeks ago, but I cancelled it before you probably got a chance to see it. I wonder, would you have accepted that?
It's moot now, since I dealt him a few days later
0
Raijin QuickfootI'm your Huckleberry YOU'RE NO DAISYRegistered User, ClubPAregular
I offered Reyes and Blackmon for Strasburg and Brantley.
Posts
But that article doesn't dispute anything I said
Well that's obvious and intuitive. Potent teams will win by a lot more often than they win by a little. But the point is they don't dominate 5 run games and then suck in 1 run games. .600 ball clubs do well in both.
I completely disagree that all teams regress toward .500 in one run games. There's recent examples that show that teams can dominate in that area. Pretty sure last years orioles were among them. Or was it 2012?
It was the 2012 Orioles. Last year's Orioles couldn't sustain that record in 1 run games, and ended up missing the playoffs.
3DS: 2981-5304-3227
I'm not sure there are teams that will have a lot of blowout wins and also have a lot of close losses over the course of the year. That might happen early in the year, but one way or the other that's going to be corrected over the year for the most part, and usually it's going to be .500 record regression and not the other way. But I'm sure there are outliers where teams will have that happen over the course of a season, and it might have something to do with particular skills that team possesses, like really good hitting but a crappy bullpen, where they can maul mediocre pitchers but get stopped by great pitchers, and can't hold on the close games. But I don't think that's universal constant for what you're suggesting. A study of that might be interesting though, or if you can find one that already exists. It's hard to search or remember every article out there.
I agree in principle.
But Carlos Gomez does it all the time and then ALWAYS gets pissy when he's called on it. If you're going to stand there and admire your long fly ball that didn't leave the park, you don't get to be mad when the pitcher walks over to you and calls you a fucking idiot.
It's the same as in Hockey. No team, not even the best teams are able to reproduce their results in one goal games. The Avalanche this year have a RIDICULOUS winning percentage in one goal games this year. They play .500 or worse in those games next season and they aren't in the playoffs.
I will channel my inner Joe Morgan here and claim that it's fair in my opinion to say that the ability to have "luck" in close games has more to do with the finer attributes of a team than just chance. And year over year variances can be explained by changes in rosters and even in players themselves
Solid late game bullpens, clutch hitting, reliable defense, these things that help win close games are things you can chart in a season. Whether or not they will be there next season is not relevant if you're talking about playoffs and championships
HANK THE DOG HAS A MOBILE DOG HOUSE NOW!
3DS: 2981-5304-3227
JUST LOOK AT THIS THING.
3DS: 2981-5304-3227
3DS: 2981-5304-3227
The thing to remember about the 2012 Orioles vs the 2013 is this: A lot of people said that the 2013 Orioles would be a sub .500 team again because they would regress to the mean in one-run games. They DID regress to the mean in one-run games, in a real way in 2013.
However they were still in the playoff hunt pretty much all the way until the tail-end of the season.
The 2012 Orioles weren't good because they won so many one-run games, they won so many one-run games because they were (are) a pretty dang good team.
Fortytwo's blog about fatherhood, life, and everything.
It really is a little bit of column A and column B. The Orioles' pen in 2012 was ungodly
In 2012 the Orioles bullpen had an OPS+ against of 89
In innings 7-9 opponents OPS'd 683 against them with an OBP of 309
Jim Johnson had 50 saves. In 37 of his 41 appearances that year he faced only three, or fewer batters. He only faced more than five batters seven times all year. He only gave up three homers all year.
The 2012 Orioles' bullpen was just extraordinary
Fortytwo's blog about fatherhood, life, and everything.
what I offer is that in by June of 2012 it would have been fair to say that Johnson wasn't going to regress this year, and he was just that awesome
kind of like how it became apparent at a certain point that Fernando Rodney would be just completely unstoppable at a certain point in 2012
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https://www.amazon.com/gp/registry/wishlist/1JI9WWSRW1YJI
Obviously he was juicing.
Charge $1 a pic with Hank and make a killing. I'd drive to Milwaukee and pay $5 for a pic with him for some stupid reason.
AFTER I AM DONE WITH YOU, YOU'LL WISH YOU WERE IN LAST!
.....wait, let me try that again.
I AM GOING TO BEAT YOU THIS WEEK TO CONTINUE MY DOMINANCE AS THE BEST APRIL TEAM IN SE++, BEFORE FADING IN JUNE AND JULY.
3DS: 2981-5304-3227
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Famous last words
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Wait, no, diet, shit.
Anyway, Ike Davis hit a grand slam tonight so that's nice. Maybe he won't suck.
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If he starts talking like this, watch out.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/registry/wishlist/1JI9WWSRW1YJI
Yeah about that.... lemme send you a counteroffer.
Fortytwo's blog about fatherhood, life, and everything.
Fortytwo's blog about fatherhood, life, and everything.
Straily, Feldman, Chavez, Quintana - They are on the block. I'm not going to ask for the moon, but I am looking for some more decent OF, solid OBP and some SB
Fortytwo's blog about fatherhood, life, and everything.
I don't think you're allowed to say that when I just beat you last week on the strength of my pitching.
3DS: 2981-5304-3227
Yeah, but when two starters give me shit games that week - that just really kinda sucks. Not a lot I could do with that. For example, see Sweeney this week with Buchholz.
Fortytwo's blog about fatherhood, life, and everything.
Yeah he is really good.
Fortytwo's blog about fatherhood, life, and everything.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/registry/wishlist/1JI9WWSRW1YJI
https://www.amazon.com/gp/registry/wishlist/1JI9WWSRW1YJI
I'm just going to chalk it up as him not being used to starting the dumb Patriot's Day thing where the Red Sox play at 11 AM instead of a reasonable hour. Saturday he should have a better start.
Steam
I actually offered you Puig for Strasburg a couple weeks ago, but I cancelled it before you probably got a chance to see it. I wonder, would you have accepted that?
It's moot now, since I dealt him a few days later
https://www.amazon.com/gp/registry/wishlist/1JI9WWSRW1YJI