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[European Politics] European Elections: This Time It's Different?

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Posts

  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    I don't think the Lib Dems have strongholds anymore.

    Lh96QHG.png
    Burnage
  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    I don't think the Lib Dems have strongholds anymore.

    Not for Europe. They still retain a few solid strongholds for local and national elections. Although a lot less.

    A lot of people think they may lose about 15-20 MPs in 2015, but that would still leave them with 30 or so and give them a chance to hold balance if the two main parties keep going like they are

    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • Wraith260Wraith260 Happiest Goomba! Registered User regular
    no change to the seats in Wales, but UKIP up 15% and Labour up 8%. Conservatives and Plaid Cymru both down 3-4%.

  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    Heh, now Sadiq Khan (Labour) having a dig at the BBC's UKIP-centric coverage

    Kalkino
  • Wraith260Wraith260 Happiest Goomba! Registered User regular
    the problem with parties complaining about UKIP getting more news coverage than the rest is that quite a bit of it has been for news worthy reasons. where the BBC supposed to ignore a senior party member tweeting about shooting "poofters", or the party leader himself and his various xenophobic comments? maybe its proof that no publicity is bad publicity, but i don't think you can in any away suggest that UKIP have been favoured by the media.

  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    edited May 2014
    I think you definitely can, especially if you're labour

    Sadiq Khan's point was mostly that Labour had done really pretty well in the local elections, and UKIP failed to make a significant impression, but that is precisely the opposite conclusion from that you would likely have drawn from recent coverage

    japan on
    Domhnall
  • Wraith260Wraith260 Happiest Goomba! Registered User regular
    well that's really more about the quality of the coverage, not the quantity. though on that i agree that the reporting of the local council elections doesn't really match up to the reality, nor do i think the results tonight will carry through to the general next year.

    UKIP has always done well in the European elections but always come crashing back down in the general and i think we'll see the same this time around, though with an even better showing in Europe this time around from the looks of things.

  • jakobaggerjakobagger LO THY DREAD EMPIRE CHAOS IS RESTORED Registered User regular
    Ukip sounds like a pokémon.

    The Danish politician who had the best personal results is named Messerschmidt like the Nazi Germany plane, which is funny because he belongs to the awful right-wing populist party (who, to be fair are okay at distancing themselves from actual fascists/nazis. They want to maybe switch to the group the Tories are in I think).

    These are my serious political thoughts for the day.

    bgg / steam / goodreads / Bnet: Bygasto#2537
    Kalkino
  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    UKIP are unlikely to get more than a couple of MPs in 2015, despite this result, due to FPP

    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
    Wraith260
  • MuffinatronMuffinatron Registered User regular
    Why is the voter turnout for the UK european/council elections so low?

    Last General election was at 65.1% (which isn't high enough for my liking anyway), but this election was 33.5%.

    The MEPs we're getting were only decided on by barely over a third of the populace, that's fucking ridiculous.

    PSN: Holy-Promethium | Hearthstone: Muffinatron#2495 (EU)
  • wiltingwilting Registered User regular
    edited May 2014
    Why is the voter turnout for the UK european/council elections so low?

    Last General election was at 65.1% (which isn't high enough for my liking anyway), but this election was 33.5%.

    The MEPs we're getting were only decided on by barely over a third of the populace, that's fucking ridiculous.

    It's precisely because they aren't General Elections. They are "second order" elections, seen as less important because they don't choose a government. Hence both the low turnout and the higher vote for small/protest parties.

    Arguably with the new European Commission President election procedure European Elections are more like general elections now, although this will probably take a few goes to filter into the public consciousness.

    wilting on
  • Panda4YouPanda4You Registered User regular
    Also, vast majority of member countries have like 20 representatives or less, out of 766, so I can kinda understand a certain "what the fuck good does this do" sentiment...

    "In this discussion of copyright it's actually appropriate to call it theft:
    This music is being (preemptively) removed from the public domain; it's being stolen from the people."

    Conservative ideology is a cancer on liberal democracy and it's getting close to terminal.
    - Shryke
    Julius
  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    Immediate impressions from the UK results:

    There doesn't seem to be any simple overall "this party took this other party's share of the vote" narrative
    Having said that the BNP vote has dried up and it's tempting to attribute that to protest voters finding a marginally leas repellent protest party to vote for
    Labour did better than last time, but it's tough to read much into that
    My overriding impression of voting patterns for protest parties is that their share as a percentage of the vote tends to dwindle as turnout increases, since protest voters are generally more willing to actually get out and vote and mainstream voters less so, but I'm not sure if that's an assumption that can be safely made about UKIP

  • CornucopiistCornucopiist Registered User regular
    edited May 2014
    Belgium is in an interesting bind.
    The biggest party is now the Dutch speaking conservative/nationalist/neoliberal (altough a lot of their votes came from the extreme right) NVA, with 34 out of 150 seats in the Federal Parliament. Their nemesis, the French speaking socialist PS, have 25 seats. It is nearly impossible for these two to reconcile, the platform of the NVA is basically no more PS government ever again.

    However, practically, a federal government needs to be mirrored across the two linguistic groups. Mirroring the Flemish-nationalist NVA with the Walloon-nationalist FDF, however, is not a realistic proposition. They could agree to hate each-other forever and ever, but then there's Brussels, the Belgian capital, which is a bit like Berlin in that it's mainly French speaking but surrounded by militant Flemish towns. Brussels cannot be split, given to one group or the other, or, despite its multi-ethnicity, be made independant of both groups.

    (The NVA would love to split the country, Brussels be damned, but does not have the entire Flemish population's support on this: a moderate, federalist view has gained them, a Christian democrat party with more moderate nationalist views and and extreme right party altogether a mere 55 seats. Unless others want to join in, there's no chance at continued separation which requires a very large majority.)

    Now the first option to form a government is to have a neo-liberal, conservative government of a 93-seat nearly mirrored grouping of the NVA and the other centre right parties. But this means the Walloon centre right gives almost complete control to the NVA. Already the neoliberal MR, the second biggest Walloon party, has said they'd like to join forces with the walloon-nationalist FDF against the NVA.

    The only other option is a 'classical tripartite' meaning neoliberals, christian democrats and socialists; an even stronger government of 96 seats. But that would be disrespectful of the fully 20% of Belgians who've voted to never again have the Socialists, and especially the Walloon socialists, in a government. Any Flemish party involved would likely be branded a traitor to the people (in those very words).

    At the same time, there's a push for the Federal government to be mirrored in the Regional governments.

    The NVA centre right government, with 93 seats Federal, would have 89 out of 124 seats in Flanders, but in the Walloons only 38 out of 75 seats.
    The tripartite would have 96 out of 150 federal, only 64 out of 124 seats in Flanders, and 68 out of 75 seats in the Walloons. In this, the Flemish might want to invite the Greens on board to get a 'monster coalition' that makes for easier governance, but none of the parties would favor it, and the likely outcome of the symbology would be a nationalist revolution. Now, one interesting tidbit regarding those Greens... in the European Parliament, the NVA is seated in their group. They will be ejected sooner rather than later, but their incredible (and somewhat fascist) victory has resulted in Belgium being shown in some media as a great and solitary victory for the Greens...

    So the choice is between the Walloon parties accepting to play second fiddle Federal and try and work with a very small minority Regionally, or for the Flemish parties to board a difficult to manage tripartite and defy the wishes of a third of the Flemish population.

    There's more Flemish, and the last government sort of was a win for the Walloons. Expectations are the NVA will get a shot at government- but then the Walloon parties involved would be branded 'traitors to the people'.

    The obvious ploy for the Walloons is to refuse to talk constructively to the NVA until the pressure on the other parties to form a government absolves them from taking into account that huge Flemish vote.
    The obvious ploy for the NVA is to demonise the PS to such an extent that the Flemish parties cannot form a tripartite.

    If you could split the country, it'd be easy... But you can't. Last time government negotiations lasted 541 days.




    Cornucopiist on
    KalkinoEdith UpwardsPipe Dreamer
  • wiltingwilting Registered User regular
    Ironically the increased "Eurosceptic" vote may have the opposite than intended effect. If I'm interpreting the results correctly, the EPP's and S&D's combined vote have dipped below 50%, meaning they cannot form a grand coalition by themselves. The most likely/viable partner is the most pro-integration ALDE.

    While some might interpret the vote as a message to be heard, others might stiffen their resolve in the face of what they regard as extremism. I'm guessing it's going to give more ammunition to those calling for greater Union level democracy, if the vote is interpreted as disillusionment with a "distant", "bureaucratic" Brussels etc.

    The big endorsement for the new Italian, openly Federalist, Government is interesting.

  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    The BBC coverage mentioned this

    Getting stuff done in the European parliament seems to depend primarily on joining one of the established groups within the parliament. It's been pointed out that UKIP haven't really done much of anything in the parliament so far and their apparent stance of not associating with any current power bloc suggests that they won't be able to even if they want to

    It's also been pointed out that they don't have any monopoly on an anti-establishment maverick image, and trying to get several small groups of that type to pull in the same direction is going to be extraordinarily difficult

  • wiltingwilting Registered User regular
    edited May 2014
    Well, UKIP are in the "Freedom & Democracy" group, but yeah they have the laziest MEPs. Even if all the disparate left and right wing groups could work together, then still wouldn't have a majority in the Parliament. The next group down from the ALDE are the Greens, who are openly Federalist themselves.

    There's a huge number of new MEP's not associated with any group, so it will be interesting to see how they position themselves, or if new groups will form/be amalgamated. The groups are something of alliances of convenience, especially the smaller ones, so there will probably be some repositioning.

    wilting on
  • CornucopiistCornucopiist Registered User regular
    wilting wrote: »
    The groups are something of alliances of convenience, especially the smaller ones, so there will probably be some repositioning.

    Also funding is very much tied to being part of a group, as is committee access. This means for some people it's necessity rather than convenience that puts them in a group.

    wilting
  • WotanAnubisWotanAnubis Registered User regular
    I admit to being a bit curious to see what the Eurosceptics get up to. UKIP, FN, PVV, they're not just anti-Europe, they're also pro-themselves with a hearty dose of fuck you.

    I wonder how willing or able they'll be to work together with other people when all of their agendas revolve around not wanting to work together with other people.

  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    Take a look at the US congress to see what that looks like.

    Lh96QHG.png
    Edith UpwardsJazzCorehealer
  • SanderJKSanderJK Crocodylus Pontifex Sinterklasicus Madrid, 3000 ADRegistered User regular
    The weird endresult of the European Election is that nothing but EPP & S&D matters. They hold just over half of the parliament, and the rest of it is too scattered to make a pact of ~25% of the votes to replace either for any major issue.

    There's bunches on the left, the right, the pro- and anti-europe, but they will have almost no voice since you can't get them to agree on anything.

    So with all this noise what you end up with is a Centrist moderately pro-Europe government.

    Steam: SanderJK Origin: SanderJK
  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    There has been talk of frantic phone calls from PM Cameron to other EU leaders this morning before their arrival in Brussels for the first post election conference.

    How exciting !

    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • Mojo_JojoMojo_Jojo But do you really believe him? Registered User regular
    Kalkino wrote: »
    There has been talk of frantic phone calls from PM Cameron to other EU leaders this morning before their arrival in Brussels for the first post election conference.

    How exciting !

    He'd forgotten to prebook his taxi and wanted to see if anybody else was arriving at a similar time so they could share.

    Homogeneous distribution of your varieties of amuse-gueule
    Kalkino
  • wiltingwilting Registered User regular
    edited May 2014
    Cameron is opposed to the new Commission President 'election' procedure. He's probably trying to stop it. Because that's a good way to stop the electorate feeling 'distant' from the EU, right? Juncker has already claimed victory.

    wilting on
  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    Mojo_Jojo wrote: »
    Kalkino wrote: »
    There has been talk of frantic phone calls from PM Cameron to other EU leaders this morning before their arrival in Brussels for the first post election conference.

    How exciting !

    He'd forgotten to prebook his taxi and wanted to see if anybody else was arriving at a similar time so they could share.

    Ahh, that makes more sense

    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • wiltingwilting Registered User regular
    The full Irish local and European elections results still aren't through, but the leader of the Labour Party (and Tánaiste/Deputy PM), Eamon Gilmore, resigned yesterday after an electoral drumming, raising questions about the future of the coalition Government.

  • wiltingwilting Registered User regular
    The European Parliament Group Leaders have backed Juncker to start negotiations for the Commission Presidency, well except for the jerk ECR (Tory) and EFD (UKIP) groups.

    Kalkino
  • Clown ShoesClown Shoes Give me hay or give me death. Registered User regular
    SanderJK wrote: »
    So with all this noise what you end up with is a Centrist moderately pro-Europe government.

    Yet when I said I was voting UKIP because they would have no effect in the EU parliament but would piss off our national politicians, everyone thought I was mad.

  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    SanderJK wrote: »
    So with all this noise what you end up with is a Centrist moderately pro-Europe government.

    Yet when I said I was voting UKIP because they would have no effect in the EU parliament but would piss off our national politicians, everyone thought I was mad.

    Come back to me when your Tory government starts going full retard in a couple years, brosef.

    Tea Party says hello.

    Lh96QHG.png
    Edith Upwardsa5ehrenJazzCorehealershryke
  • SanderJKSanderJK Crocodylus Pontifex Sinterklasicus Madrid, 3000 ADRegistered User regular
    Cameron is trying to stop Juncker (A mildly conservative mildly europositive 20 year veteran) from becoming EU President right at this moment because of his fear of UKIP. So those votes definitely had an effect.

    Steam: SanderJK Origin: SanderJK
  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    edited May 2014
    SanderJK wrote: »
    So with all this noise what you end up with is a Centrist moderately pro-Europe government.

    Yet when I said I was voting UKIP because they would have no effect in the EU parliament but would piss off our national politicians, everyone thought I was mad.

    Congratulations! You helped make many of our representatives in the European Parliament a bunch of lunatics and given our politicians the impression that UKIP's direction is one they should emulate. Awesome job!

    Bogart on
    AManFromEarthjakobaggerRhesus PositiveEdith UpwardsJobless AnarchistKalkinoMillDomhnallCorehealershrykePLA
  • Edith UpwardsEdith Upwards Registered User regular
    Tea Party says hello.

    The timing of the Reagan Revolution, the obstructionism of the Teahadists, and the attitude of the British Right.

    It will be glorious. :grin:

  • Clown ShoesClown Shoes Give me hay or give me death. Registered User regular
    It won't happen. In a general election, they'd get rejected because of their obviously mental policies. If they come up with any sensible policies, we'll end with right wing protest party to mildly annoy the Tories.

    People worry about the other parties becoming more right wing, but if UKIP want to gain serious numbers of seats, it's them that are going to have to move towards the centre ground.

  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    wilting wrote: »
    The full Irish local and European elections results still aren't through, but the leader of the Labour Party (and Tánaiste/Deputy PM), Eamon Gilmore, resigned yesterday after an electoral drumming, raising questions about the future of the coalition Government.

    Labour likely to be smashed like the Greens were?

    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • wiltingwilting Registered User regular
    edited May 2014
    Well that depends on if the leadership change also comes with a change of direction, I suppose. They are certainly going to be on a low ebb for an electoral cycle.

    wilting on
  • MovitzMovitz Registered User regular
    I'm pretty disgusted by the fact that Front National, a party that denies the holocaust and whose founder last week stated that Ebola could be a solution to France's immigration problem, are now sending 20 people to the parliament.

    That's the same number as Sweden has commissioners in total.

    Yes yes, I know, proportional distribution of seats by population but still. Fuck that bullshit.

    KalkinoJazz
  • Clown ShoesClown Shoes Give me hay or give me death. Registered User regular
    Movitz wrote: »
    ...Ebola could be a solution to France's immigration problem...

    Does he think it will only kill immigrants or that it will kill them before they get to France.

    Kalkino
  • MovitzMovitz Registered User regular
    Movitz wrote: »
    ...Ebola could be a solution to France's immigration problem...

    Does he think it will only kill immigrants or that it will kill them before they get to France.

    I think the recent outbreak was in old French colonies so I guess the latter. But who knows what that asshat is thinking.

  • AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    Movitz wrote: »
    I'm pretty disgusted by the fact that Front National, a party that denies the holocaust and whose founder last week stated that Ebola could be a solution to France's immigration problem, are now sending 20 people to the parliament.

    That's the same number as Sweden has commissioners in total.

    Yes yes, I know, proportional distribution of seats by population but still. Fuck that bullshit.

    You can lay this one at Merkel's feet.

    XBL: Nox Aeternum / PSN: NoxAeternum / NN:NoxAeternum / Steam: noxaeternum
  • Clown ShoesClown Shoes Give me hay or give me death. Registered User regular
    Movitz wrote: »
    I'm pretty disgusted by the fact that Front National, a party that denies the holocaust and whose founder last week stated that Ebola could be a solution to France's immigration problem, are now sending 20 people to the parliament.

    That's the same number as Sweden has commissioners in total.

    Yes yes, I know, proportional distribution of seats by population but still. Fuck that bullshit.

    You can lay this one at Merkel's feet.

    Are we allowed to blame the Germans for facists and nazis again? Awesome!

    Seriously though, how is that Merkel's fault?

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