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Posts

  • DelphinidaesDelphinidaes FFXIV: Delphi Kisaragi Registered User regular
    Enlong wrote: »
    To clarify, there's no real bonus to using Ruin II over Ruin, DPS-wise , right? It casts instantly, but everything has to cool down over about the same amount of time that it takes to cast Ruin anyway.

    Normally yes, but off-gcd abilities can still be cast (fester, virus, eye for an eye, swiftcast, etc) but yeah you still need to wait for gcd to cast another gcd spell. Main benefit of ruin ii is from the mobility it grants and the blind. However you pay for it in the mana cost.

    Use it primarily when you need to move, blind, or right after fester for a little extra bit of burst on a mob close to death

    Bio ii, miasma, bio, fester, ruin ii, energy drain, ruin ii is pretty much the most burst damage you can do in the shortest amount of time on a single target. Not efficient, but good for burst on some fights or pvp

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  • KhavallKhavall British ColumbiaRegistered User regular
    edited July 2014
    Enlong wrote: »
    To clarify, there's no real bonus to using Ruin II over Ruin, DPS-wise , right? It casts instantly, but everything has to cool down over about the same amount of time that it takes to cast Ruin anyway.
    So there are two bonuses to using Ruin II. One is that you can cast it while moving, so in fights where you need lots of movement while you're casting(e.g. plumes during levi dives)

    The other bonus is that you have many skills that don't trigger the Global Cooldown and aren't affected by the GCD. Fester, Aetherflow, Energy Drain, Bane, Swiftcast, Spur, Rouse, and Enkindle specifically. Which is why you can "weave" those in between the Ruin II casts(Or after Bio, or anything that has just been swiftcast) If you're just chaining Ruins because everything's either on cooldown or the DoTs are all high enough that they don't need to be refreshed, then absolutely use Ruin I.

    Damage-wise they're exactly the same. But because of the existence of off-GCD abilities and fights with lots of movement, you still want to have Ruin II accessible, and since it's the only on-GCD instant-cast ability you have that isn't a DoT, it's the prime target for weaving in the off-GCD stuff.

    I personally have gotten in the habit of basically using it whenever I have a non-GCD ability to have. You have to be pretty on in your Aetherflows to not run out of mana doing it that way, and in long slug-fests you might have to keep an eye on it, but a lot of longer bosses have phases where you're not DPSing, so that makes it easier.

    Khavall on
  • IshtaarIshtaar Fun is underrated. Registered User regular
    edited July 2014
    Renzo wrote: »
    I may not do hunts this week, since I'm still working on the story (just finished Thornmarch), but I'll keep this in mind. Not even sure if I'm geared well enough for hunts at i78. I assume so?

    My gear is kind of all over the place. I still have 4 i60 pieces and the rest are between I think i70 and i90.

    Yep, you're good. I've gotten credit whacking one with a mining pick on my way to dig soil, and one of our FC members friends that just started playing managed to get bronze credit at level 30ish.

    One thing I failed to mention in my post was the hunts DO have a hidden gold/silver/bronze contribution type stat, which is heavily biased toward grouping. It's almost impossible to get max seals solo, so join up with a group that's doing them! (Check Party Finder or try shouting if you happen to be in a zone when one spawns)

    Contribution works strangely, like it does on Odin/Behemoth. Damage done is one way, I feel like abilities landed is more important though: I can get more credit on my Bard if I use off-GCD Silence and Barrage (increases autoattacks to x3) then if I try to do max damage. Summoners will struggle to put their DoTs up due to their being a cap on the number. Black Mages are better off with a Swiftcasted F3 followed by Scathe, just to hit more often. There are also non-apparent ways to "cheese" the system with threat (tanks spamming Flash) or healing, including overhealing (WHM's spamming Cure3). You can just as easily get max credit as a full party of 4 tanks and 4 healers doing zero damage to the mark as you can with 8 Bards pewpewing as hard as they can. In fact, we actively try to use as many tanks/healers as possible to minimize damage out, so more people can get full credit.

    Ishtaar on
    FFXIV: Sith Lord ~ D3: Ish ~ Steam:Ishie
  • EnlongEnlong Registered User regular
    All these good moves to weave in really make me wish I had more than 16 moves on a standard cross hotbar. For example, I'm trying to decide whether I'd be better suited with Miasma II or Blizzard II as an "I drew aggro!" Panic button.

    Speaking of economy of space, is there a way to set up a macro that will use Swiftcast, and will instead use Surecast if Swiftcast is on cool down? If I can do that, I can put an Eye For An Eye/Virus combo into one slot. But then I'm stuck with nowhere to put Raging Strikes, and only one space to put some variation of Ruin.

    And nowhere to put Tri Disaster, but I'm not getting the indication that Tri Disaster is worth a slot.

  • Chubby BunnyChubby Bunny Regal Pocket Monster Boston, MARegistered User regular
    edited July 2014
    @Ishtaar‌ - thanks for the really great clarification on hunts. Sounds like that's what I should be doing for a little while, just to get geared up. I'm currently at around i55. It'd be great to start doing things with the FC; that's the big driving factor for me right now. Is there a linkshell dedicated to hunts, or do I just sit around in /fc and lie in wait? What happens if I'm in the middle of a roulette and something pops? Are there other things I should know / can get involved with in terms of how GHOST / Sargatanas specifically tackles hunts?

    Chubby Bunny on
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  • DelphinidaesDelphinidaes FFXIV: Delphi Kisaragi Registered User regular
    Ishtaar wrote: »
    Renzo wrote: »
    I may not do hunts this week, since I'm still working on the story (just finished Thornmarch), but I'll keep this in mind. Not even sure if I'm geared well enough for hunts at i78. I assume so?

    My gear is kind of all over the place. I still have 4 i60 pieces and the rest are between I think i70 and i90.

    Yep, you're good. I've gotten credit whacking one with a mining pick on my way to dig soil, and one of our FC members friends that just started playing managed to get bronze credit at level 30ish.

    One thing I failed to mention in my post was the hunts DO have a hidden gold/silver/bronze contribution type stat, which is heavily biased toward grouping. It's almost impossible to get max seals solo, so join up with a group that's doing them! (Check Party Finder or try shouting if you happen to be in a zone when one spawns)

    Contribution works strangely, like it does on Odin/Behemoth. Damage done is one way, I feel like abilities landed is more important though: I can get more credit on my Bard if I use off-GCD Silence and Barrage (increases autoattacks to x3) then if I try to do max damage. Summoners will struggle to put their DoTs up due to their being a cap on the number. Black Mages are better off with a Swiftcasted F3 followed by Scathe, just to hit more often. There are also non-apparent ways to "cheese" the system with threat (tanks spamming Flash) or healing, including overhealing (WHM's spamming Cure3). You can just as easily get max credit as a full party of 4 tanks and 4 healers doing zero damage to the mark as you can with 8 Bards pewpewing as hard as they can. In fact, we actively try to use as many tanks/healers as possible to minimize damage out, so more people can get full credit.

    As a SMN on Hunts I use Titan-egi + Rouse/Spur/Enkindle and then Shadowflare and rotate Ruin II + Energy Drain until i'm out of Aetherflow then pop Aetherflow and do it again.

    On B and A mobs they are dead long before I run out of Aetherflow the second time and even S ranks typically don't last long enough for me to use all 6 stacks of Aetherflow. With that and the enmity boosting abilities from Titan-EX I almost always get full credit provided some of the party is also contributing.

    Alternatively I just go on Warrior and spam enmity stuff but honestly my Warrior is ilvl 95 compared to ilvl 108 on SMN so I think my SMN is a bit more useful until I get some better gear on my Warrior.

    Well unless the mob is reset at 5% when I've blown a lot of my Aetherflow, then it sucks >.<

    NNID: delphinidaes
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  • RenzoRenzo Registered User regular
    edited July 2014
    Enlong wrote: »
    All these good moves to weave in really make me wish I had more than 16 moves on a standard cross hotbar. For example, I'm trying to decide whether I'd be better suited with Miasma II or Blizzard II as an "I drew aggro!" Panic button.

    Speaking of economy of space, is there a way to set up a macro that will use Swiftcast, and will instead use Surecast if Swiftcast is on cool down? If I can do that, I can put an Eye For An Eye/Virus combo into one slot. But then I'm stuck with nowhere to put Raging Strikes, and only one space to put some variation of Ruin.

    And nowhere to put Tri Disaster, but I'm not getting the indication that Tri Disaster is worth a slot.

    Yes, you can make a macro that has two or more abilities on it. You'll want a macro to consist of 1 GCD ability at most (sometimes none) and then as many off-GCD abilities as makes sense for what you're trying to do.
    /macroicon "action name"
    /ac "action name1" <t>
    /ac "action name2" <t>
    /ac "action name3" <t>

    /macroicon "action name" makes the given action be the icon that appears for this macro.

    /action "action name1" <t> The actions you list here are prioritized based on which is at the top. If action name1 is on cool down, action name2 will be used, and so on. The <t> is your current target. If you're targeting yourself, use <me>.

    You may want to set up hot bars with the actions that are referenced in your macro so you can keep an eye on their cool downs, then press your macro button when they're ready.

    Here's a decent list of commands: http://ffxiv.consolegameswiki.com/wiki/Macro

    Renzo on
  • DelphinidaesDelphinidaes FFXIV: Delphi Kisaragi Registered User regular
    Enlong wrote: »
    All these good moves to weave in really make me wish I had more than 16 moves on a standard cross hotbar. For example, I'm trying to decide whether I'd be better suited with Miasma II or Blizzard II as an "I drew aggro!" Panic button.

    Speaking of economy of space, is there a way to set up a macro that will use Swiftcast, and will instead use Surecast if Swiftcast is on cool down? If I can do that, I can put an Eye For An Eye/Virus combo into one slot. But then I'm stuck with nowhere to put Raging Strikes, and only one space to put some variation of Ruin.

    And nowhere to put Tri Disaster, but I'm not getting the indication that Tri Disaster is worth a slot.

    Tri-Disaster has very niche uses.

    Basically it's a godsend in PVP when you swiftcast it and bind an entire mob of enemy players (Or even just one tbh) . It's also good for speedruns where you bind mobs and lock them out of boss fights. There are also a few fights here and there where you can save people with clutch long range binds.

    Outside of that though it's not particularly useful even if it looks cool as fuck when you cast it. (Seriously it's one of my favorite Summoner animations/spell effects)

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  • Chubby BunnyChubby Bunny Regal Pocket Monster Boston, MARegistered User regular
    @Delphinidaes‌ do you PvP as summoner? I was thinking about trying frontlines now that I'm 50. Is there a minimum ilevel for PvP?

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  • DelphinidaesDelphinidaes FFXIV: Delphi Kisaragi Registered User regular
    edited July 2014
    @Delphinidaes‌ do you PvP as summoner? I was thinking about trying frontlines now that I'm 50. Is there a minimum ilevel for PvP?

    I do indeed.

    There is not a minimum ilvl for PvP as far as I am aware, however it does cap you at ilvl 80 (lowering your stats down to ilvl 80 if you are above it)

    I find Summoner is particularly useful for a few things:

    1) Killing healers. With the healing debuff from Miasma and the burst from Fester>Energy Drain> Dot Ticks Summoners can be very useful in outright killing a healer or in the very least forcing them to focus on healing themselves leaving their team to be decimated.

    2)Collateral damage. Full Raging Strikes DoT rotation on the enemy healer + contagion + Bane = a LOT of damage around the enemy group, and it's sneaky damage. Suddenly people are taking a lot more damage than they think they are and with Miasma on every it's harder for healers to keep them up. Especially when you Virus the Healer.

    3) Tri-disaster lockdown into Limit break. This kills the healer, and most of the people around them

    4) Slow, Bind, Blind, Knockback off cliff (Garuda), Stun (Ifrit/Titan), virus, Eye for an Eye, and just general utility.

    In short Summoners are incredibly powerful in PvP, deceptively so since often times people don't notice the DoTs until 3/4 of their health is gone, from a Fester + Ruin II + Energy Drain + Ruin II combo (usually the DoTs have ticked once as well and the enemy goes into full panic mode)

    Delphinidaes on
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  • IshtaarIshtaar Fun is underrated. Registered User regular
    @Ishtaar‌ - thanks for the really great clarification on hunts. Sounds like that's what I should be doing for a little while, just to get geared up. I'm currently at around i55. It'd be great to start doing things with the FC; that's the big driving factor for me right now. Is there a linkshell dedicated to hunts, or do I just sit around in /fc and lie in wait? What happens if I'm in the middle of a roulette and something pops? Are there other things I should know / can get involved with in terms of how GHOST / Sargatanas specifically tackles hunts?

    I'm on a different server, so I can't give you direct help for Sarge/FC stuff, but it looks like you have a couple linkshells dedicated to hunts. You can try stalking one of the leaders and politely asking for an invite. I know Faerie is quite a bit more organized than the norm, but honestly it only took a small group to bring about that change. This linkshell right here was the one created to counter the drama that stemmed from two big FC's trying to horde the spawns all to themselves, and it absolutely succeeded. One of the most friendly, helpful Linkshells I belong to was just oneguy that started his own and shouted the offer to invite people that would actively share, so pay attention to chat!

    Honestly, I wouldn't leave a roulette for a hunt that supposedly popped, there's too much trolling even on my server.

    You need to be in a party to get max credit, and being in a party gets you the added bonus of having 7 other sets of eyes/ears to lead you to the next mark. I generally try to party up with strangers in Party Finder as it gives you many more sources of intel through their voice chats and FC chats, that and I love chatting up people I don't know... If we find something, proper etiquette is to alert our party/FC first so they have a chance to port to the zone, then after 30ish seconds spam it out to linkshells so the herd can appear.

    One of my linkshells usually has a shared session running on this site so we know what's going to spawn soon, and we can send scouts to fan out and well, hunt for stuff. I always let my party know what A ranks are off cooldown, tell them where I'm going to search, and that usually is good enough encouragement to get them to go out and scout as well. Sometimes though, you'll end up in a party of what we affectionately call "freeloaders," who can't be arsed to get out of the city/housing area to go look, are the last to know about hunts, and the first to complain that nobody waited for them. At first you'll kind of be that guy, since you don't know what/where to look, but it only takes a couple hours of porting all over to start to learn what's what. (I'll link a spreadsheet when I get home, google docs is blocked at my work) If you end up in a party of grumbly freeloaders, don't hesitate to leave, (thank them for the party!) and find a different group. But honestly, even asking "hey guys, anyone know what hasn't spawned recently so I can go look?" has a magical effect on encouraging people you wont necessarily have to.

    FFXIV: Sith Lord ~ D3: Ish ~ Steam:Ishie
  • MaximumMaximum Registered User regular
    I dinged 50 Saturday afternoon. At the time I was i46.

    Unlocked the hunt right after, and by 8pm last night I was already sitting at i62.

    It almost feels like I'm cheating.

    Chubby Bunny
  • KiTAKiTA Registered User regular
    edited July 2014
    KiTA wrote: »
    I've been meaning to fix this for a while, but which config command do I need to enable so that when the enemy I'm currently targeting dies, I immediately target the next enemy that my party is fighting?

    As a Tank and DPS, I spend too much time manually targeting the next enemy my group is fighting after killing my last target.

    Wait, this is an option?!

    So, anyone know how to enable this? It would be a hell of a lot better than the current way it handles targeting.

    KiTA on
  • RenzoRenzo Registered User regular
    KiTA wrote: »
    KiTA wrote: »
    I've been meaning to fix this for a while, but which config command do I need to enable so that when the enemy I'm currently targeting dies, I immediately target the next enemy that my party is fighting?

    As a Tank and DPS, I spend too much time manually targeting the next enemy my group is fighting after killing my last target.

    Wait, this is an option?!

    Not that I know of.

  • KhavallKhavall British ColumbiaRegistered User regular
    I mean, there isn't even really a way to automatically target the enemy that "Your party" is fighting. You can target what your tank is targeting, but that's not always the primary target. You can target what the other DPS is targeting, but maybe they're terrible. There is kind of a way you can get that working with a macro, but even then you'd have to macro it up and focus target the tank, as far as I know.

    Even less so having it happen automatically on death.

  • RenzoRenzo Registered User regular
    That sort of targeting functionality is pretty much the game playing itself. And "enemy that my party is fighting" is incredibly vague in the first place.

  • GnomeTankGnomeTank What the what? Portland, OregonRegistered User regular
    I always mark what I want the next target to be when I'm tanking. Following my target is bad, you're going to end up hitting things I don't want you to hit. If you're in a group with me, just follow the numbers.

    I don't always do it if the content is easy, or we're overleveled/overgeared, but I tend to in other cases.

    Sagroth wrote: »
    Oh c'mon FyreWulff, no one's gonna pay to visit Uranus.
    Steam: Brainling, XBL / PSN: GnomeTank, NintendoID: Brainling, FF14: Zillius Rosh SFV: Brainling
  • StiltsStilts Registered User regular
    GnomeTank wrote: »
    I always mark what I want the next target to be when I'm tanking. Following my target is bad, you're going to end up hitting things I don't want you to hit. If you're in a group with me, just follow the numbers.

    I don't always do it if the content is easy, or we're overleveled/overgeared, but I tend to in other cases.

    Unfortunately, not all tanks mark their targets.

    Though I've found that attacking the target of the tank's ranged pull is usually pretty reliable.

    IKknkhU.gif
  • GnomeTankGnomeTank What the what? Portland, OregonRegistered User regular
    Well, some tanks are just bad ;)

    And yes, hitting what I ranged pull is generally fine. Unless it's prohibitive to do so, I ranged pull what I want killed first.

    Sagroth wrote: »
    Oh c'mon FyreWulff, no one's gonna pay to visit Uranus.
    Steam: Brainling, XBL / PSN: GnomeTank, NintendoID: Brainling, FF14: Zillius Rosh SFV: Brainling
  • IshtaarIshtaar Fun is underrated. Registered User regular
    The only thing I can think of is back to the days of WoW 40 mans where you'd have the "main assist," or the guy who's target you'd focus fire down next. You'd designate that guy, and everyone could just target that guy and mash their assist (change to target's target) hotkey so they'd be attacking the right thing. There is an assist key in FF, I don't remember offhand what it's called though.

    FFXIV: Sith Lord ~ D3: Ish ~ Steam:Ishie
  • KhavallKhavall British ColumbiaRegistered User regular
    Ishtaar wrote: »
    The only thing I can think of is back to the days of WoW 40 mans where you'd have the "main assist," or the guy who's target you'd focus fire down next. You'd designate that guy, and everyone could just target that guy and mash their assist (change to target's target) hotkey so they'd be attacking the right thing. There is an assist key in FF, I don't remember offhand what it's called though.

    t

  • Tridus1xTridus1x Registered User regular
    I still think the best solution to hunts is add Allied Seals to PVP Frontlines matches. That'll help the PVP queue times and take more people out of the horde.

    GroveDelphinidaesAngelHedgieIshtaarSkeithStolls
  • LanrutconLanrutcon The LabyrinthRegistered User regular
    Tone all hunt targets to B rank difficulty. Make the hunt targets appear in instances as rare spawns. Scale the stuff they drop to the level of the instance they appear in.

    Oh, and uncap soldiery for the love of fuck.

    Capture.jpg~original
    Currently playing: GW2 and TSW
  • DelphinidaesDelphinidaes FFXIV: Delphi Kisaragi Registered User regular
    edited July 2014
    Lanrutcon wrote: »
    Tone all hunt targets to B rank difficulty. Make the hunt targets appear in instances as rare spawns. Scale the stuff they drop to the level of the instance they appear in.

    Oh, and uncap soldiery for the love of fuck.

    Soldiery uncap will come in 2.4 with the next phase of Coil (and the addition of a new Tome type which will be capped at 450). Don't expect it before then.

    Delphinidaes on
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  • korodullinkorodullin What. SCRegistered User regular
    edited July 2014
    Just make Mark Bills worth doing and I'll be fine.

    I ain't waiting around 30-45 minutes for a FATE to pop to get 2 seals.

    korodullin on
    ZvOMJnu.png
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  • LanrutconLanrutcon The LabyrinthRegistered User regular
    Lanrutcon wrote: »
    Tone all hunt targets to B rank difficulty. Make the hunt targets appear in instances as rare spawns. Scale the stuff they drop to the level of the instance they appear in.

    Oh, and uncap soldiery for the love of fuck.

    Soldiery uncap will come in 2.4 with the next phase of Coil (and the addition of a new Tome type which will be capped at 450). Don't expect it before then.

    Unless they raise the level cap or make the new instances super hard, I'm not even gonna bother with soldiery in 2.4. The gear progression is silly: you don't need D to get to C to get to B. So the moment they add A, you can just forget about B. And S is hidden so far behind complex raid content that maybe 1% of players is ever going to see it. Any content that's un-PUGable is essentially wasted on the vast majority of the playerbase. I wonder how many people have actually bothered to learn Ramuh EX, for example. Enough to warrant the time it took to develop him? Hell knows.

    I hope 2.4 has some new dungeons.

    Capture.jpg~original
    Currently playing: GW2 and TSW
  • DelphinidaesDelphinidaes FFXIV: Delphi Kisaragi Registered User regular
    edited July 2014
    Ever wonder why with a 90% chance you still fail a synth?

    Or why with a 5% HQ chance you get 3 HQ in a row on a gather?

    Ever think to yourself "Man FFXIV doesn't know how to do RNG at ALL"

    Well apparently one of the Community managers managed to speak with the FFXIV Programmer "K" on the subject and bring some of the back end stuff to light and also why there appears to be bias.

    http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/threads/183545-A-Random-Comment?p=2310334&viewfull=1#post2310334
    Hello,

    Since this was brought up in the UI forum, even though I’m not in charge of it I will go ahead and comment about this a general discussion point.

    I checked up with our main programmer “K”, and for FFXIV it seems like we are using 3 famous random algorithms different depending on the application. Naturally, everything is processed server-side, and the random seed differs for each process.

    So in response to the question if there is a bug with the coding that generates the same random number if you continuously press an action, the answer is that the system implemented is such that this type of problem will not occur.

    There were older games where you could use certain patterns to your advantage to beat the game, but in recent days there aren’t any games like this anymore. Probably.

    However, the rate (random) process in games from very long ago and up until now -- not only for FFXIV -- have continued to be doubted by players.

    From my perspective it’s just a clear cut case of chance, but this alone may not be convincing enough, so I will try to explain about this a bit.

    This discussion is not particular to FFXIV and it is more about why random number programs are easily doubted.
    (Of course there have been a number of cases where there were bugs…)

    So to start off, I’ll lay out the essential points quickly.

    A. The standard random number programs used by FFXIV, and other modern games, generate practical “true random numbers”.
    B. With a range of trial numbers that can be understood by a person, because it’s a true random number bias arises.
    C. Since our brains are very adept in their capability to detect bias as abnormal or a singularity, we perceive true random numbers as abnormal.

    I’ll explain about each point above individually.

    First, I’ll start with the program for generating random numbers.

    FFXIV and other modern games use a random number algorithm (properly known as a pseudorandom number generator), which was contrived by some really good mathematicians and computer science people, and it was tested for a number of fields and is used as a solid algorithm.

    As an example, I’ll explain a little snippet about the periodicity of the random number algorithm known as Mersenne twister.
    “The algorithm provides a super astronomical period of 2^19937 – 1 and 623 dimensional equidistribution up to 32 bits accuracy.”

    Got it? No? That’s okay.

    Random number algorithms are part of a field that was built by the results of pure mathematics. As long as we the users understand that the random numbers generated are correct and practical that is more than enough.

    ★Those of you who know about random number algorithms and examples of problems in the past that arose in games, you’re probably wondering about something I didn’t touch on above. I will add an explanation to the end of this post.


    Next is about “true random numbers”.

    When it comes to random numbers there are two different types with different distribution patterns: uniform random numbers and normal random numbers. As the number of trials increase, we start to converge on the ideal condition.

    Conversely, if the number of trials (sampling number) is low, bias arises in random numbers.

    As humans, when it comes to the number of trials in games and such that we are able to grasp, it’s normal for us to perceive bias in the random numbers.

    In other words, the premise that it’s strange that there is bias in random numbers is mistaken.

    Of course, with hundreds and thousands or billions of trials, we will approach a distribution that is uniformly random and the bias will disappear. Unfortunately, this is impossible for a human to actually observe and experience.

    Due to this, every time you observe bias arising from a limited number of trials you can’t help but think that something’s wrong.

    Finally, onto our cognitive fallacies.

    Humans are able to instantly determine and intuit various things. It’s often said that our brains are really good at this but computers have trouble. On the other hand though, there is an aspect to this ability that is weak, and when this is exploited it opens us up to tricks and deceit.

    The pattern of deviation in judgment and illogical interpretation is known as cognitive bias.

    A leading example of where cognitive bias arises is the Gambler's fallacy.

    This states that when a person observes multiple events over the course of time, they will begin to expect that the results in the future will be affected by what happened in the past, and will either feel convinced that the results were due to a cause-and-effect relationship, or have a feeling of strangeness.

    When you flip a coin 5 times in a row, the rate in which you land either heads or tails for the 6th flip will be 50%. However, our gut feeling says “this time for sure!” and we modify this with an expected value, and as a result when it lands heads we think “No way!” or when it lands tails we think “Just as I thought!” This is cognitive bias.

    As I stated in b) above, the feeling that something is strange even though it is not is our brains are trying to create a cause-and-effect relationship that we anticipate, but the rate behaves in a completely unrelated manner.

    (I’m writing this in a definitive matter, but please be aware that I am regurgitating what I read from a book.)

    Cognitive bias is similar to a bug in humans’ cognitive capability, but it seems like it’s a system that was acquired for our survival to decide things efficiently in times of emergency.

    The whole topic of cognitive bias is really fascinating, so if you are interested I recommend reading
    this book.
     
    This pretty much sums up why we often think something is up with the probability we encounter in games.
     
    Bonus info: An aspect I didn’t touch on earlier in regards to random number algorithms.

    Amongst the random number algorithms, one method that is often adopted that has a high cost to efficiency ratio is the linear congruential method; however, it’s well known by implementers that there is an issue where large bias arises.

    In fact, there was a game that mistook the use of this function, and as the sample size grew larger the more bias increased. Meaning that just because it’s a well-known method doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s proof of it being accurate.

    Additionally, even if a random number sequence is generated properly, depending on how the application uses this value, ultimately there may be cases where strange patterns arise.

    So with all of this said, this is not one big post about the evidence of the accuracy of XIV’s various probability calculations. As I mentioned that the beginning of this post, the latter portion of this long comment is mainly just chitchat, but in response to the question as to whether there is something wrong with the probability in XIV, the answer is no, there is nothing wrong.

    There are some link in there I didn't copy over.

    In short, it's cognitive bias (which most people here understand) and SE stands by it's RNG setup despite the anecdotal evidence of RNG bugs.

    Delphinidaes on
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  • MaximumMaximum Registered User regular
    I see the RNG nonsense in chat all the time.

    "I just failed 2 HQ's in a row with 90%. The RNG is bugged and I hate this game!"

    Delphinidaes
  • EnlongEnlong Registered User regular
    Okay, but Fire Emblem definitely cheats.

    StiltsDelphinidaesIshtaarNeurotikaSkeithPrjctD_CaptainSCREECH OF THE FARGStolls
  • GnomeTankGnomeTank What the what? Portland, OregonRegistered User regular
    There are really only two random number generation methods anyone should use in 2014: Psuedorandom, and cryptographically secure random. Crypto random obviously injects a massive amount of entropy, but it's slow. Psuedorandom is probably the best approximation of true mathematical randomness you can get while still giving good performance..

    Sagroth wrote: »
    Oh c'mon FyreWulff, no one's gonna pay to visit Uranus.
    Steam: Brainling, XBL / PSN: GnomeTank, NintendoID: Brainling, FF14: Zillius Rosh SFV: Brainling
  • IshtaarIshtaar Fun is underrated. Registered User regular
    Complaining about RNG is the best way to get luck on your side though. Case in point, several minutes ago, running in circles looking for a Piesteskin map. Next node after bitching, map waiting for me!

    Note: This doesn't always work.

    FFXIV: Sith Lord ~ D3: Ish ~ Steam:Ishie
  • TakelTakel Registered User regular
    The thing about Summoner DoTs is that they work on a global server DoT tick. Which means that every 3 seconds the server "ticks" and all DoTs that are currently active will do their damage. This means ideally you don't want the DoTs to ever fall off (lest they miss a tick during reapplication) and you have a bit of leeway to reapply them with 1 or 2 seconds left without worrying about losing DPS.

    This also applies to HoT effects in case anyone was curious or uncertain, which is why multiple Regens can combine into a ludicrous tick on a tank in CT/ST.

    I'm a little annoyed at how the periodic effects function off a server global. While I understand that this can really help in reducing server load, I get the niggling feeling in the back of my mind that it has the potential to make those periodic effects less efficient due to almost airways losing one 'tick' per application and it relegates spell/skill speed even more to the "don't bother trying to accumulate pile".

    Steam | PSN: MystLansfeld | 3DS: 4656-6210-1377 | FFXIV: Lavinia Lansfeld
  • GnomeTankGnomeTank What the what? Portland, OregonRegistered User regular
    Ishtaar wrote: »
    Complaining about RNG is the best way to get luck on your side though. Case in point, several minutes ago, running in circles looking for a Piesteskin map. Next node after bitching, map waiting for me!

    Note: This doesn't always work.

    Because you are totally resetting the seed by running in circles!
    Psuedorandom generators don't seed like this.

    Sagroth wrote: »
    Oh c'mon FyreWulff, no one's gonna pay to visit Uranus.
    Steam: Brainling, XBL / PSN: GnomeTank, NintendoID: Brainling, FF14: Zillius Rosh SFV: Brainling
  • DelphinidaesDelphinidaes FFXIV: Delphi Kisaragi Registered User regular
    GnomeTank wrote: »
    Ishtaar wrote: »
    Complaining about RNG is the best way to get luck on your side though. Case in point, several minutes ago, running in circles looking for a Piesteskin map. Next node after bitching, map waiting for me!

    Note: This doesn't always work.

    Because you are totally resetting the seed by running in circles!
    Psuedorandom generators don't seed like this.

    Yup, although some games in the past did generate seeds based on movement like this I think. Isn't that how some speed runs are done on older games, they force specific things like that to be generated then exploit it?

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  • GnomeTankGnomeTank What the what? Portland, OregonRegistered User regular
    edited July 2014
    Yes, a lot of older games did use very obvious seeds using basically the system rand() function, which if you know the algorithm, is crazy easy to predict. From there it becomes a matter of figuring out what set of inputs and game states will create the appropriate seed to get the pattern of numbers you want.

    e: And for a real deep dive, if you're curious why system rand() functions don't use a better algorithm, it's about backwards compatibility. People using rand() expect it to behave a certain way, and changing it would break that. This is why most modern programming environments offer myriad alternatives, such as .NET's RNGCryptoServiceProvider class, which is what I'm using in my Star War's Storytelling dice roller.

    GnomeTank on
    Sagroth wrote: »
    Oh c'mon FyreWulff, no one's gonna pay to visit Uranus.
    Steam: Brainling, XBL / PSN: GnomeTank, NintendoID: Brainling, FF14: Zillius Rosh SFV: Brainling
  • NeurotikaNeurotika Registered User regular
    Also, facing north on Darksday totally increases your HQ and skillup chances.

    Only between 0800 and 0900, in the rain, on Batilla Downs

  • EnlongEnlong Registered User regular
    "Will you dedicate yourself to archery?"
    "Yes*"

    *"I will take 4 levels, for Raging Strikes"

    Sorce
  • YukiraYukira Registered User regular
    Woo hoo! Got my Animus.

    Never doing that again.

    StollsTridus1x
  • EnlongEnlong Registered User regular
    And now I have Raging Strikes mapped to a macro with Bio II. This will be nice.

  • SomeWarlockSomeWarlock Registered User regular
    Enlong wrote: »
    Okay, but Fire Emblem definitely cheats.

    I'm sure you say that jokingly, but Fire Emblem does cheat, but in a way that benefits the player. It's RNG rolls twice and uses the average between the two. This greatly favors whomever has the bigger numbers since a 90% chance of hitting actually has a ~1% chance of missing, while a 10% chance of hitting similarly has a ~99% chance of missing. Since the player on average has better stats on their units, the RNG systematically favors them.

    Of course, that shows you how bad people are at RNG, since I've seen players swear that the RNG cheats in favor of the AI.

    Geth
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