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The Ebola/Zika/Other [Infectious Diseases] Thread

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Posts

  • ArchArch Neat-o, mosquito! Registered User regular
    Guys, don't read The Hot Zone.

    Or, do, but realize that Preston is in no way a scientist or associated with the science. What's more, the book is old as fuck. It is literally 20 years old at this point.

    I'm particularly fond of this review of the novel, as the Smithsonian highlights my favorite line in the entire book.
    "Viruses," Preston writes, "are molecular sharks, a motive without a mind. Compact, hard, logical, totally selfish. . . ."

    Viruses, or as we scientist call them, MOLECULAR SHARKS

    (read Virus Hunter- it is better in that it is much less dramatized. Slightly more dry, but loads more educational. Still dated though)

    TL DR
  • surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular
    um

    molecular sharks is accurate as fk arch pls....

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    ArchBurnageoverride367KetBraRozJacobkosh
  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    I would imagine it's been long enough that whoever got the virus in that area is too sick to move or dead, so lifting quarantine is probably fine.

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  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    Arch wrote: »
    Guys, don't read The Hot Zone.

    Or, do, but realize that Preston is in no way a scientist or associated with the science. What's more, the book is old as fuck. It is literally 20 years old at this point.

    I'm particularly fond of this review of the novel, as the Smithsonian highlights my favorite line in the entire book.
    "Viruses," Preston writes, "are molecular sharks, a motive without a mind. Compact, hard, logical, totally selfish. . . ."

    Viruses, or as we scientist call them, MOLECULAR SHARKS

    (read Virus Hunter- it is better in that it is much less dramatized. Slightly more dry, but loads more educational. Still dated though)

    Preston also got spun on the Soviet stuff by, literally, the same intelligence crowd that was completely sure about Saddam's weapons of mass destruction. Whether or not the Soviets ever did weaponize this stuff (they did), the projections and analysis of the potential devastation possible from its use were highly exaggerated for political reasons.

  • So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »

    wow

    that diplomat is an asshole and that doctor even more so. what a clear disregard for his patients, friends, family...good lord

    XaquinElvenshaethatassemblyguyCaptain MarcusRhan9Regina FongKristmas KthulhuEchoMan in the Mists
  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    edited September 2014
    This is exactly why I'm worried about this so much. All it takes is one complete asshole and hundreds of people now contagious with a near fatal disease.

    there are so many assholes in the world ....

    edit:

    now you've got a shit ton of people who are possibly/probably infected going "I barely came in contact with him, I'm probably not infected .... oops, time to go to the grocery store and handle a bunch of produce .... wow, my hands are sweaty! Pretty warm today I guess"

    Xaquin on
  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    Not to mention all the hotel workers and so on (I hope they clean the sheets properly!) that had absolutely no idea.

    torchlight-sig-80.jpg
    XaquinElvenshaeKristmas Kthulhu
  • Johnny ChopsockyJohnny Chopsocky Scootaloo! We have to cook! Grillin' HaysenburgersRegistered User regular
    So they're bringing a physician who's been infected to our local hospital's new biocontainment unit, and every story about it is spawning some choice awfulness in the comments.

    I swear every time someone tries to bring facts into those discussions they're instantly shut down by screeching panic addicts. It's simultaneously beautiful and horrific to watch.

    ygPIJ.gif
    Steam ID XBL: JohnnyChopsocky PSN:Stud_Beefpile WiiU:JohnnyChopsocky
  • The EnderThe Ender Registered User regular
    So It Goes wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »

    wow

    that diplomat is an asshole and that doctor even more so. what a clear disregard for his patients, friends, family...good lord

    In fairness, I mean, he was told to basically stay in Lagos & wait to die.

    What would you do?


    Air travel & more resilient viral agents is a combination that keeps me up some nights. All you need is some vector with a plane ticket, and bam, even a theoretically high-lethality but low transmission virus is not only airborne, but able to spread internationally. Infected person wipes their eyes or coughs into their hand and then grabs a hand rail or door knob or armrest that you touch shortly thereafter, and if you happen to lose the 'touched some live viral particles' coin toss, you're suddenly very dead unless you wash your hands on an extremely regular basis.

    With Love and Courage
  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    So they're bringing a physician who's been infected to our local hospital's new biocontainment unit, and every story about it is spawning some choice awfulness in the comments.

    I swear every time someone tries to bring facts into those discussions they're instantly shut down by screeching panic addicts. It's simultaneously beautiful and horrific to watch.

    I'm pretty much on their side at this point. I mean when you have diplomats and doctors actively and stupidly infecting 'X' people because 'fuck quarantine', I'd say that's a fairly decent reason to be very very wary.

  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    The Ender wrote: »
    So It Goes wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »

    wow

    that diplomat is an asshole and that doctor even more so. what a clear disregard for his patients, friends, family...good lord

    In fairness, I mean, he was told to basically stay in Lagos & wait to die.

    What would you do?


    Air travel & more resilient viral agents is a combination that keeps me up some nights. All you need is some vector with a plane ticket, and bam, even a theoretically high-lethality but low transmission virus is not only airborne, but able to spread internationally. Infected person wipes their eyes or coughs into their hand and then grabs a hand rail or door knob or armrest that you touch shortly thereafter, and if you happen to lose the 'touched some live viral particles' coin toss, you're suddenly very dead unless you wash your hands on an extremely regular basis.

    The doctor operating on patients WHILE EXPERIENCING EBOLA SYMPTOMS.

    ElvenshaeMrVyngaardSo It Goes
  • Johnny ChopsockyJohnny Chopsocky Scootaloo! We have to cook! Grillin' HaysenburgersRegistered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    So they're bringing a physician who's been infected to our local hospital's new biocontainment unit, and every story about it is spawning some choice awfulness in the comments.

    I swear every time someone tries to bring facts into those discussions they're instantly shut down by screeching panic addicts. It's simultaneously beautiful and horrific to watch.

    I'm pretty much on their side at this point. I mean when you have diplomats and doctors actively and stupidly infecting 'X' people because 'fuck quarantine', I'd say that's a fairly decent reason to be very very wary.

    Except everything about that patient coming to an American hospital is going to be 100% quarantine and biohazard suits and clean rooms and rigorous protocol and safety measures which quite frankly is a lot better than a Nigerian hotel room.

    ygPIJ.gif
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  • KetBraKetBra FISTS OF JUSTICE! Registered User regular
    That doctor was a huge asshole that probably just effectively murdered many, many people.

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Ghana is probably next on the country infection list.


    Sorry. I was trying to write up a long and detailed post here about the World Health Organization and mathematical models and such but it keeps turning into FUCK'S SAKE YOU OPERATED ON TWO PEOPLE WHILE INFECTIOUS AND THEN HAD YOUR CHURCH LAY HANDS ON YOU? WHAT THE FUCKING FUCK?

    Phoenix-DThe EnderMrVyngaardSo It GoesSkeithMan in the MistscB557LoisLane
  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    So they're bringing a physician who's been infected to our local hospital's new biocontainment unit, and every story about it is spawning some choice awfulness in the comments.

    I swear every time someone tries to bring facts into those discussions they're instantly shut down by screeching panic addicts. It's simultaneously beautiful and horrific to watch.

    I'm pretty much on their side at this point. I mean when you have diplomats and doctors actively and stupidly infecting 'X' people because 'fuck quarantine', I'd say that's a fairly decent reason to be very very wary.

    Except everything about that patient coming to an American hospital is going to be 100% quarantine and biohazard suits and clean rooms and rigorous protocol and safety measures which quite frankly is a lot better than a Nigerian hotel room.

    yeah, until the exact same thing that happens over there happens here. Some moron decides they don't want everyone to know they might have ebola, pretends they can beat it by staying hydrated, and ends up giving it to however many people until we have west africa right here!

  • VeeveeVeevee WisconsinRegistered User regular
    edited September 2014
    Xaquin wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    So they're bringing a physician who's been infected to our local hospital's new biocontainment unit, and every story about it is spawning some choice awfulness in the comments.

    I swear every time someone tries to bring facts into those discussions they're instantly shut down by screeching panic addicts. It's simultaneously beautiful and horrific to watch.

    I'm pretty much on their side at this point. I mean when you have diplomats and doctors actively and stupidly infecting 'X' people because 'fuck quarantine', I'd say that's a fairly decent reason to be very very wary.

    Except everything about that patient coming to an American hospital is going to be 100% quarantine and biohazard suits and clean rooms and rigorous protocol and safety measures which quite frankly is a lot better than a Nigerian hotel room.

    yeah, until the exact same thing that happens over there happens here. Some moron decides they don't want everyone to know they might have ebola, pretends they can beat it by staying hydrated, and ends up giving it to however many people until we have west africa right here!

    You know how you make sure doctors don't do dumb shit like operating on people while infected with Ebola? You treat them humanely and with as much care and compassion as you can when they do get sick, such as with first class medicine and bio containment units in a hospital. You take that away and go the panic route by just locking people away in quarantine until they die and it will make everything worse,

    You want people comfortable enough with the fact you WILL do everything to save them so they come forward when sick instead of trying to hide in fear from the execution squad

    Edit: Come on, doesn't any one know their zombie story tropes here?

    Veevee on
    The EnderElvenshaeSiskaKristmas KthulhuThorn413cB557
  • The EnderThe Ender Registered User regular
    edited September 2014
    The doctor operating on patients WHILE EXPERIENCING EBOLA SYMPTOMS.

    Yeah, I don't know what the Hell the doctor's deal was, but I think very, very few people in the diplomat's position would just smile, nod their head and wait to bleed out all over their bedroom when they have an easy means of escape from the quarantine zone & a chance for treatment elsewhere.


    EDIT: That's not to say what he did was anything other than reprehensible, but I can't condemn him without tossing stones from a glass house.

    The Ender on
    With Love and Courage
    SiskaCalicacB557
  • Jam WarriorJam Warrior Registered User regular
    edited September 2014
    Xaquin wrote: »
    So they're bringing a physician who's been infected to our local hospital's new biocontainment unit, and every story about it is spawning some choice awfulness in the comments.

    I swear every time someone tries to bring facts into those discussions they're instantly shut down by screeching panic addicts. It's simultaneously beautiful and horrific to watch.

    I'm pretty much on their side at this point. I mean when you have diplomats and doctors actively and stupidly infecting 'X' people because 'fuck quarantine', I'd say that's a fairly decent reason to be very very wary.

    Then you're joining the reactionary panic brigade and making the situation worse. A known infected person under the full and strict containment procedures that will be employed in the west has a pretty much 0% chance of passing the disease on.

    Save your worry for people infected in the uncontrolled bits of the world hiding it and trying to sneak back to the west, not this extremely open and controlled action.

    Jam Warrior on
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  • VeeveeVeevee WisconsinRegistered User regular
    edited September 2014
    Xaquin wrote: »
    So they're bringing a physician who's been infected to our local hospital's new biocontainment unit, and every story about it is spawning some choice awfulness in the comments.

    I swear every time someone tries to bring facts into those discussions they're instantly shut down by screeching panic addicts. It's simultaneously beautiful and horrific to watch.

    I'm pretty much on their side at this point. I mean when you have diplomats and doctors actively and stupidly infecting 'X' people because 'fuck quarantine', I'd say that's a fairly decent reason to be very very wary.

    Then you're joining the reactionary panic brigade and making the situation worse. A known infected person under the full and strict containment procedures that will be employed in the west has a pretty much 0% chance of passing the disease on.

    Save your worry for people infected in the uncontrolled bits of the world hiding it and trying to sneak back to the west, not this extremely open and controlled action.

    Exactly. The reason I brought up the zombie trope was because in every zombie movie out there there is one universal thing that always gets everyone killed. The jerkfacegoose that doesn't tell the group about their, or a loved ones, bite because they don't want to get shot in the head immediately after telling the group. The way the west handles this (ebola, not zombies) and any other deadly, communicable disease makes transmission once in treatment and isolation impossible without someone screwing up somewhere, but it also needs the trust of the patient and public to stay calm to keep it that way. To do this, the doctors must be as transparent as they can be in treatment, and they also need to do all they can to actually cure the patient.

    In Africa, the public has zero trust in the doctors because they do not have the training or the equipment to do anything more than shoot the zombie in the head once it's revealed to the group (quarantine until dead or healthy), so instead they go to the neighborhood witch doctor who, instead of killing the patient, promises a cure. Turns out their cure of sticking your dick in the zombies mouth doesn't work, but you'd rather be a dickless zombie than not try the only hope you have of a cure.

    From what I've read it feels like they are on the edge of full on panic, if they aren't already failing over that edge, where everyone starts hiding sickness from everyone else until nearly everyone is infected. And because I'm apparently in a terrible frame of mind, I then wonder which racial group will get the blame for this and then which group starts the genocide.

    Veevee on
    PLA
  • ShadowhopeShadowhope Baa. Registered User regular

    The reason to bring out the zombie trope is because it turns out that the zombie stories were right about how infected humans deal with this shit.

    World War Z (which I already loved) has gone up immensely in my estimation.

    I sometimes post pretty pictures to twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewandworld
  • The EnderThe Ender Registered User regular
    Zombies are so much less terrifying than real viruses, in my opinion.

    With Love and Courage
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  • zagdrobzagdrob Registered User regular
    The Ender wrote: »
    Zombies are so much less terrifying than real viruses, in my opinion.

    A zombie is basically a virus big enough to shoot. We're pretty good at shooting stuff, and in the traditional zombie story once a person turns, that's it - nothing human left, they pose nothing but a danger. And yet, even then, there's the trope mentioned up the page where - even when there's no good reason to have any hope - people hide their loved ones, follow any rumor to try and get some cure, etc.

    Gotta remember, that the classic 'bullet' solution to zombies becomes a bit more untenable if after a week half the zombies are back to being healthy / cured. I guess that's kind of a point that was sort of touched on but not fleshed out in the same way in 'I Am Legend' (the book, not the shitty movie)...

    PLAtbloxhamcB557TL DR
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    It would admittedly be hard to trust doctors if you hear that one almost certainly knew he had Ebola, since he was secretly treating someone who had escaped quarantine, and then continued to operate on patients while infectious. I just slept and hoped that I'd be able to look at it with a calmer head, but now when I think about it, this is even worse. It's not just a doctor infecting dozens of people out of stupidity or whatever; it's a doctor breaking trust in medical practitioners. This is where rumors and conspiracy theories of "the doctors are spreading Ebola because EEEEEEVIL" comes from.

    It could make people in the area afraid to go to the doctor even for other ailments; my kid has diarrhea and isn't getting better, but if I go to the clinic we could both get sick and die. Then the kid dies from dehydration but not before you've contaminated the local water supply while trying whatever home remedy some other local yokel faith healer suggests. Now eighty more kids are sick and dying.

    ElvenshaeShadowhope
  • kuhlmeyekuhlmeye Registered User regular
    edited September 2014
    So they're bringing a physician who's been infected to our local hospital's new biocontainment unit, and every story about it is spawning some choice awfulness in the comments.

    I swear every time someone tries to bring facts into those discussions they're instantly shut down by screeching panic addicts. It's simultaneously beautiful and horrific to watch.

    I'm going to assume you live in Omaha as well. I just went looking around at a couple different sites, and you were not kidding. It's amazing how many people don't realize how much more advanced the facilities here are than what they have in Africa. Pretty sure they also don't realize that the biocontainment unit does drills every month or so to practice procedures for exactly this.

    On top of hoping bringing the doctor here helps him recover, it's pretty darn exciting to be one of only a couple sites in the US that can even handle events like this.

    kuhlmeye on
    PSN: the-K-flash
  • The EnderThe Ender Registered User regular
    This is probably too cynical, but:

    An old friend of mine - a microbiologist who specialized in childhood viral infections - told me that the reality of the situation is that we're more or less at the mercy of the bugs, and most of the institutes we've built to 'handle' epidemiology (the WHO, the CDC, etc) are more or less just placebos. Things we can point to as a means of pretending that we're totally fighting a pitched battle with the various proteins & particles that want to use us as reproductive matter, when in reality there is almost nothing we could do if a real big bad jumped into a human host, skipped over to Beijing, then went more or less everywhere via airplanes / boats.

    He then showed me via a series of metrics what a 'big bad' was; one of several diseases with a known precedent that exceeds any contemporary virus in terms of lethality, temperature range & ease of transmission. Apparently we were very lucky that air travel wasn't a thing during the lifespan of a few of the nastier strains of influenza?

    If that's true, I wonder for how long we'll keep that luck.

    With Love and Courage
  • PLAPLA The process.Registered User regular
    Infectious zombie-disease is barely contagious in most stories. I'll be careful about letting people drip saliva into my bloodstream.

    redxcB557
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    The Ender wrote: »
    This is probably too cynical, but:

    An old friend of mine - a microbiologist who specialized in childhood viral infections - told me that the reality of the situation is that we're more or less at the mercy of the bugs, and most of the institutes we've built to 'handle' epidemiology (the WHO, the CDC, etc) are more or less just placebos. Things we can point to as a means of pretending that we're totally fighting a pitched battle with the various proteins & particles that want to use us as reproductive matter, when in reality there is almost nothing we could do if a real big bad jumped into a human host, skipped over to Beijing, then went more or less everywhere via airplanes / boats.

    He then showed me via a series of metrics what a 'big bad' was; one of several diseases with a known precedent that exceeds any contemporary virus in terms of lethality, temperature range & ease of transmission. Apparently we were very lucky that air travel wasn't a thing during the lifespan of a few of the nastier strains of influenza?

    If that's true, I wonder for how long we'll keep that luck.

    We as a species have survived numerous viruses and plagues as bad or worse than anything around today. Smallpox etc. Nothing kills everything, and everything which is successful at spreading becomes better at spreading by getting less lethal.

    I don't know what he means about nastier influenza strains either. Spanish flu is as bad as influenza can get and every community worldwide got it within a year.

    The thing to remember about this outbreak is the number of cases there are compared to how long its been going on. There have been maybe 10k cases but millions have been exposed. Its a horrible disease, but its not very infectious. Even a slight improvement in cultural response to disease would probably knock it below its percolation levels.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
    Jam WarriorCaptain MarcusSkeithcB557
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    The thing to remember about this outbreak is the number of cases there are compared to how long its been going on. There have been maybe 10k cases but millions have been exposed. Its a horrible disease, but its not very infectious. Even a slight improvement in cultural response to disease would probably knock it below its percolation levels.

    I wouldn't say that millions have been exposed yet. To actually be exposed you need to come in direct physical contact with infectious fluids. It isn't like an airborne ailment where you just need to be kinda in the same area as someone who is infected.

    Thanks everybody here for not going into silly goose panic mode like I've been seeing, well, pretty much everywhere else. Even supposedly science-focused sites are full of people screaming about government conspiracies and Ebola being made in a lab for vague nefarious purposes and OMG we're all gonna die because it look it's mutating twice as fast as normal! Yes, now it's mutating only 50 times more slowly than the flu, instead of 100 times more slowly.

  • Johnny ChopsockyJohnny Chopsocky Scootaloo! We have to cook! Grillin' HaysenburgersRegistered User regular
    kuhlmeye wrote: »
    So they're bringing a physician who's been infected to our local hospital's new biocontainment unit, and every story about it is spawning some choice awfulness in the comments.

    I swear every time someone tries to bring facts into those discussions they're instantly shut down by screeching panic addicts. It's simultaneously beautiful and horrific to watch.

    I'm going to assume you live in Omaha as well. I just went looking around at a couple different sites, and you were not kidding. It's amazing how many people don't realize how much more advanced the facilities here are than what they have in Africa. Pretty sure they also don't realize that the biocontainment unit does drills every month or so to practice procedures for exactly this.

    On top of hoping bringing the doctor here helps him recover, it's pretty darn exciting to be one of only a couple sites in the US that can even handle events like this.
    I know, right? It's nice to know that this oft-disregarded flyover podunk cow town of a metropolis contains some of the highest regarded medical facilities in the US. People are all "oh noes they sent the Ebola guy to Nebraska" and I'm all "because they know our hospitals can handle that shit, son!"

    ygPIJ.gif
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  • JepheryJephery Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    The Ender wrote: »
    This is probably too cynical, but:

    An old friend of mine - a microbiologist who specialized in childhood viral infections - told me that the reality of the situation is that we're more or less at the mercy of the bugs, and most of the institutes we've built to 'handle' epidemiology (the WHO, the CDC, etc) are more or less just placebos. Things we can point to as a means of pretending that we're totally fighting a pitched battle with the various proteins & particles that want to use us as reproductive matter, when in reality there is almost nothing we could do if a real big bad jumped into a human host, skipped over to Beijing, then went more or less everywhere via airplanes / boats.

    He then showed me via a series of metrics what a 'big bad' was; one of several diseases with a known precedent that exceeds any contemporary virus in terms of lethality, temperature range & ease of transmission. Apparently we were very lucky that air travel wasn't a thing during the lifespan of a few of the nastier strains of influenza?

    If that's true, I wonder for how long we'll keep that luck.

    We as a species have survived numerous viruses and plagues as bad or worse than anything around today. Smallpox etc. Nothing kills everything, and everything which is successful at spreading becomes better at spreading by getting less lethal.

    I don't know what he means about nastier influenza strains either. Spanish flu is as bad as influenza can get and every community worldwide got it within a year.

    The thing to remember about this outbreak is the number of cases there are compared to how long its been going on. There have been maybe 10k cases but millions have been exposed. Its a horrible disease, but its not very infectious. Even a slight improvement in cultural response to disease would probably knock it below its percolation levels.

    What are the chances that it persists long enough in the population to become less lethal and more infectious enough to become endemic like the flu?

    }
    "Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
  • Captain MarcusCaptain Marcus now arrives the hour of actionRegistered User regular
    edited September 2014
    Jephery wrote: »

    What are the chances that it persists long enough in the population to become less lethal and more infectious enough to become endemic like the flu?

    None! Unlike the flu, which normally* kills only people who are immune suppressed (the elderly and the very young) and causes a moderate illness in everyone else, Ebola kills healthy people too fast for it to adapt.

    *the reason why Spanish influenza was so terrifying was because it killed young, healthy teens/adults in very large numbers.

    Captain Marcus on
    ISIS delenda est
  • Captain MarcusCaptain Marcus now arrives the hour of actionRegistered User regular
    edited September 2014
    The Ender wrote: »
    This is probably too cynical, but:

    An old friend of mine - a microbiologist who specialized in childhood viral infections - told me that the reality of the situation is that we're more or less at the mercy of the bugs, and most of the institutes we've built to 'handle' epidemiology (the WHO, the CDC, etc) are more or less just placebos.

    Your friend is both right and wrong. As far as viral diseases go, yeah, there's not a whole lot we can do (except for rabies prophylaxis) aside from attempting to find vaccines. Bacterial illnesses are going to be on the rise again due to antibiotic resistance (brought on by overuse of antibiotics in both the First and Third Worlds).

    However, public health has come a long way. Vaccination has greatly increased lifespans across the world- polio simply isn't a concern anymore in the West and in many developing countries. Water supply/filtration ensures you aren't sick from cholera or dysentery, and modern epidemiology is such that it can even find sources of food poisoning.
    Things we can point to as a means of pretending that we're totally fighting a pitched battle with the various proteins & particles that want to use us as reproductive matter, when in reality there is almost nothing we could do if a real big bad jumped into a human host, skipped over to Beijing, then went more or less everywhere via airplanes / boats.

    Like if something really nasty got out? Martial law. Shut down ISPs and censor the press to prevent hysteria, fortify the borders, and shoot anyone who tries to get in. Civil liberties? Freedom of movement? The Russians created Ebolapox back in the late 80s/early 90s. As far as we know, they're still making it.
    He then showed me via a series of metrics what a 'big bad' was; one of several diseases with a known precedent that exceeds any contemporary virus in terms of lethality, temperature range & ease of transmission. Apparently we were very lucky that air travel wasn't a thing during the lifespan of a few of the nastier strains of influenza?

    If that's true, I wonder for how long we'll keep that luck.

    Probably not for long! Civilization wouldn't collapse, of course, but it would not be pretty. Keep an eye on Southeast Asia if you're interested; among other things that's where the flu comes from each year. The CDC sends people to pick the likeliest-looking flu and makes a vaccine for it. Some years they pick the wrong one.

    Captain Marcus on
    ISIS delenda est
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Jephery wrote: »

    What are the chances that it persists long enough in the population to become less lethal and more infectious enough to become endemic like the flu?

    None! Unlike the flu, which normally* kills only people who are immune suppressed (the elderly and the very young) and causes a moderate illness in everyone else, Ebola kills healthy people too fast for it to adapt.

    *the reason why Spanish influenza was so terrifying was because it killed young, healthy teens/adults in very large numbers.

    Plus, since one of the biggest ways Ebola spreads is through funerals, there's absolutely no selection pressure on the virus to not kill off the hosts. Live, die, the virus still infects more.

    Also at the current rate it's spreading, we're looking at 10,000 cases before the end of the month and if the status quo (the rest of the world does pretty much jack and shit) continues, over 100,000 by the end of the year. The WHO made a road map which is basically a best case scenario if everybody actually does something productive and behaviors can be changed and even if that happened it'd be over 20,000 cases.

    Captain MarcusThe Ender
  • tinwhiskerstinwhiskers Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    Jephery wrote: »

    What are the chances that it persists long enough in the population to become less lethal and more infectious enough to become endemic like the flu?

    None! Unlike the flu, which normally* kills only people who are immune suppressed (the elderly and the very young) and causes a moderate illness in everyone else, Ebola kills healthy people too fast for it to adapt.

    *the reason why Spanish influenza was so terrifying was because it killed young, healthy teens/adults in very large numbers.

    Plus, since one of the biggest ways Ebola spreads is through funerals, there's absolutely no selection pressure on the virus to not kill off the hosts. Live, die, the virus still infects more.

    Also at the current rate it's spreading, we're looking at 10,000 cases before the end of the month and if the status quo (the rest of the world does pretty much jack and shit) continues, over 100,000 by the end of the year. The WHO made a road map which is basically a best case scenario if everybody actually does something productive and behaviors can be changed and even if that happened it'd be over 20,000 cases.

    Given the vectors and the behaviors that are causing it to spread I don't see what 'the rest of the world' can actually do to stop it. Okay that isn't 100% true, but do we even have that much napalm?

    How do you spell Justice?B D S Non-Violent Resistance to Israel Apartheid & Occupation.
  • Regina FongRegina Fong Allons-y, Alonso Registered User regular
    edited September 2014
    Jephery wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    The Ender wrote: »
    This is probably too cynical, but:

    An old friend of mine - a microbiologist who specialized in childhood viral infections - told me that the reality of the situation is that we're more or less at the mercy of the bugs, and most of the institutes we've built to 'handle' epidemiology (the WHO, the CDC, etc) are more or less just placebos. Things we can point to as a means of pretending that we're totally fighting a pitched battle with the various proteins & particles that want to use us as reproductive matter, when in reality there is almost nothing we could do if a real big bad jumped into a human host, skipped over to Beijing, then went more or less everywhere via airplanes / boats.

    He then showed me via a series of metrics what a 'big bad' was; one of several diseases with a known precedent that exceeds any contemporary virus in terms of lethality, temperature range & ease of transmission. Apparently we were very lucky that air travel wasn't a thing during the lifespan of a few of the nastier strains of influenza?

    If that's true, I wonder for how long we'll keep that luck.

    We as a species have survived numerous viruses and plagues as bad or worse than anything around today. Smallpox etc. Nothing kills everything, and everything which is successful at spreading becomes better at spreading by getting less lethal.

    I don't know what he means about nastier influenza strains either. Spanish flu is as bad as influenza can get and every community worldwide got it within a year.

    The thing to remember about this outbreak is the number of cases there are compared to how long its been going on. There have been maybe 10k cases but millions have been exposed. Its a horrible disease, but its not very infectious. Even a slight improvement in cultural response to disease would probably knock it below its percolation levels.

    What are the chances that it persists long enough in the population to become less lethal and more infectious enough to become endemic like the flu?

    Ebola lacks the mutation rate of the flu virus, and it is highly lethal. Scenarios where it adapts to become more infectious and less lethal are unlikely.

    None of that is to say that ebola outbreaks aren't incredibly bad news, but ebola is not the next flu pandemic. It really can't be. The next flu pandemic is going to be... influenza.

    -edit-

    Also not communicable during its incubation phase (most things are not very communicable during incubation) and then it's symptomatic phase is so hard fast and crippling. In that sense it's not a very well-evolved virus.

    Regina Fong on
    Captain Marcus
  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    Jephery wrote: »

    What are the chances that it persists long enough in the population to become less lethal and more infectious enough to become endemic like the flu?

    None! Unlike the flu, which normally* kills only people who are immune suppressed (the elderly and the very young) and causes a moderate illness in everyone else, Ebola kills healthy people too fast for it to adapt.

    *the reason why Spanish influenza was so terrifying was because it killed young, healthy teens/adults in very large numbers.

    Plus, since one of the biggest ways Ebola spreads is through funerals, there's absolutely no selection pressure on the virus to not kill off the hosts. Live, die, the virus still infects more.

    Also at the current rate it's spreading, we're looking at 10,000 cases before the end of the month and if the status quo (the rest of the world does pretty much jack and shit) continues, over 100,000 by the end of the year. The WHO made a road map which is basically a best case scenario if everybody actually does something productive and behaviors can be changed and even if that happened it'd be over 20,000 cases.

    Given the vectors and the behaviors that are causing it to spread I don't see what 'the rest of the world' can actually do to stop it. Okay that isn't 100% true, but do we even have that much napalm?

    Who needs napalm anymore?

    Peace is out Profession

    Lh96QHG.png
  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    The really dangerous infection when it comes to Ebola is fear.

    Like that asshole surgeon and the diplomat. Panic will cause more destruction if Ebola gets to America than Ebola will.

    Lh96QHG.png
    Captain MarcusRchanenL Ron HowardMan in the Mists
  • Captain MarcusCaptain Marcus now arrives the hour of actionRegistered User regular
    The really dangerous infection when it comes to Ebola is fear.

    Like that asshole surgeon and the diplomat. Panic will cause more destruction if Ebola gets to America than Ebola will.

    The movie Contagion (although inaccurate) is pretty good at showing what will happen when people panic.

    ISIS delenda est
  • Regina FongRegina Fong Allons-y, Alonso Registered User regular
    We already got a very good preview of how the next flu pandemic is going to go with the SARS outbreak in 2003. It's going to be just like that, only with a worse fatality rate (SARS is like, 8% fatal or something like that; awful, but not ebola-like).

    Smrtnik
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