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Armadeaddon

13468913

Posts

  • MadkineMadkine AustraliaRegistered User regular
    edited October 2015
    Ow, the Aussie dollar it hurts. :(
    2 cases now inbound. :)

    Oh and I'd be surprised if there's a chance of getting a full set from one case. But then maybe they will be nicer than most who use this type of distribution method.

    Madkine on
  • PAX_SkeletorPAX_Skeletor Melbourne, AustraliaRegistered User regular
    Madkine wrote: »
    Oh and I'd be surprised if there's a chance of getting a full set from one case. But then maybe they will be nicer than most who use this type of distribution method.

    It's possible, but you'd have to be VERY lucky! When the cases start hitting it'll be interesting to see how close people can get to a set from a case.

  • SolelronSolelron Wandering Gamer Cornelius, ORRegistered User regular
    As someone who started buying things that had this kind of funky model back in the 80's, I'm not surprised by this at all. As a matter of fact, as soon as I saw the photo-shoot and numbering I pretty much nailed it.

    Yes, this is a cash basis. They know people have addictive OCD tendencies and will buy like this.

    Yet this also fosters trading. You just have to be able to find people willing to do what they want. Its not unreasonable for you to buy 1 box, and be able to trade it correctly for upwards of 10-12 pins via multiple trades (I think 40 pins gets a bit crazy imho, but)

    And just remember. TOPPS started all this back in the trading card days, well before Magic or anything else was even conceived.

    *goes back to his old man in the corner chair*

    D0rkAnglSkeleVader
  • NopeNope Frankfort, KYRegistered User regular
    Madkine wrote: »
    Oh and I'd be surprised if there's a chance of getting a full set from one case. But then maybe they will be nicer than most who use this type of distribution method.

    It's possible, but you'd have to be VERY lucky! When the cases start hitting it'll be interesting to see how close people can get to a set from a case.

    I am probably gonna do another video opening all boxes in a case, though this time, I'll timelapse it so it's not 30 minutes of watching me open boxes

    Solelron wrote: »

    And just remember. TOPPS started all this back in the trading card days, well before Magic or anything else was even conceived.

    *goes back to his old man in the corner chair*

    Man TOPPS....that takes me back. My Dad use to have like a whole closet full of rare TOPPS baseball cards.

  • SkeleVaderSkeleVader Your Friendly Dark Lord of Destruction Registered User regular
    I love this type of purchase model and I really hope we see more of it in the future. While I understand some people might be upset, this really is a great thing for the trading community. Pinny Pins are unique from other similar collections because you really don't ever need to spend any money on pins if you are going to a PAX. You can choose to put time into gathering lots of free pins, which you can then trade up for at the staff table, or other collectors.

    You can get any pin you want without spending any money, if you are willing to put in the time.

    I would also just like to express my gratitude that Bat'leth Annarchy is not one of the super rare pins and will be easier to get.

    5SIibTl.png

  • HingoHingo Minneapolis, MNRegistered User regular
    @Dabe busted out the unboxing video that people should aim for, with timelapse and music!

    Pins for trade!
    2015 PAX Prime Omeganaut (I will forever hate Katamari)
    Nopeevil santafishfishmonkeyhat
  • YoungFreyYoungFrey Registered User regular
    edited October 2015
    I decided
    OK, apologies if my maths is rusty.

    As far as I can work out from rusty high school rememberances, the lowest common denominator here is 200ths. So in any normal distribution of 200 pins you should get:
    25 Splatter Gabes
    25 Splatter Tychos
    25 Blood Rage FFs
    25 Splatter Annarchys
    20 Splatter Charles
    20 Splatter Franks
    20 Splatter Galahads
    10 Sad Zombie Tychos
    10 Zombie Juices
    4 "Cinnabon Gabe?"s

    which makes 184 pins total. That leaves 16 pins left to make up the complement of Skeleton Jims and Squarey Squaringtons. That means 2 out of every 25 pins should be some combination of these two pins.

    To extrapolate this out to pins in a case (12 packs with 2 pins each, 24 pins total), in a normally distributed case you should get:
    3 Splatter Gabe
    3 Splatter Tycho
    3 Blood Rage FF
    3 Splatter Annarchy
    2 Splatter Charles with a 40% chance of getting a third
    2 Splatter Frank with a 40% chance of getting a third
    2 Splatter Galahad with a 40% chance of getting a third
    1 Sad Zombie Tycho with a 20% chance of getting a second
    1 Zombie Juice with a 20% chance of getting a second
    a 48% chance of getting a "Cinnabon Gabe?"
    1 of either Skeleton Jim or "Squarey Squarington" with a 92% chance of getting a second.

    My simulation agrees with most of this, but I saw a 38% to get a Cinnabon Gabe. For the 1/20s, getting 1 is reasonably likely, but 30% of the time you will get 0. For the unknowns: the options are between 8% and nearly 0, the chances to get 1 or more from a case are:
    8% => 86%
    4% => 62%
    1/200 => 11%
    1/500 => 4.7%
    1/1000 => 2.4%
    So at least if one of the unknowns is hyper-rare, the other is reasonable more attainable.

    YoungFrey on
    TheRightStoff
  • aleph0aleph0 Registered User regular
    edited October 2015
    So I've been also running some simulations myself on the number of blind boxes you have to open to get at least one of each unique pin, based on the distribution probabilities. As should be well-known, having uniform probability (1/12 for each pin) is the "best" in terms of having the lowest expected number of boxes to open. Simulating 10,000 runs, the mean number is 18.02, with standard deviation 6.49. Histogram below:

    ja6zoiwa3y70.png

    However, we now mostly know the actual distribution (save for 2 pins). There has been speculation on Slack that Skeleton Jim is 1/15, and the mystery final pin is 1/75. Under this scenario, the mean number of boxes to open is 48, and the standard deviation is 33.89. Histogram below (as you can see, the tail is really long on this one):

    8oapp8basz9g.png

    We can investigate another possibility that the 8% remaining probability is distributed equally between Skeleton Jim and the mystery final pin, for 1/25 each. Here, the mean is 33.77 boxes, and the standard deviation is 20.81. Histogram:

    o8ru8t3t1mcu.png

    Of course I would expect that most of us would complete our sets through trading. But hopefully this gives a sense of how the distribution shakes out.

    aleph0 on
    adambargYoungFreyTheRightStoffPAX_SkeletorJake Capps
  • NopeNope Frankfort, KYRegistered User regular
    edited October 2015
    aleph0 wrote: »
    So I've been also running some simulations myself on the number of blind boxes you have to open to get at least one of each unique pin, based on the distribution probabilities.

    Somewhere you know Khoo is smiling a big grin over all these probability graphs

    Nope on
    zerzhulTheRightStoffjrr8942Count3DKeroan
  • dmosineedmosinee Davenport, IARegistered User regular
    edited October 2015
    aleph0 wrote: »
    Of course I would expect that most of us would complete our sets through trading.

    People keep saying this, but you can only complete your set through trading if the mystery pins are actually available to trade. If the distribution really is 1/75, then I strongly suspect there aren't very many total. If they had 1,000 cases made that's only 320 of the mystery pin in existence. That's not completely awful considering pin people will likely get most of them -- maybe Leeroy Jenkins level of availability -- but there's absolutely no guarantee they had 1,000 cases made. Cut that number in half, and things are starting to look grim for completionists.

    EDIT: Figured it out. There appears to be about 7,000 total boxes left as of now split between the cases and individuals. Mixing in some data from earlier posts, there would seem to be about 600 total cases plus however many were purchased by people who did not post in this thread about it. 750 total cases seems like a reasonable guess at the overall number produced given the above; if that is correct then there would be 360 Cinnabon Gabes in existence and 240 of the mystery square (using rumor of 1/75).

    TLDR; If the 1/75 thing is correct -- that pin is probably the lowest print run we have seen to date, including the DLC.

    dmosinee on
    Digital Lanyard, I love trades - https://www.pinnypals.com/pals/dmosinee
    http://pinmash.info - Two pins enter, one pins leaves... then the other pin leaves with a lower Elo rating
  • merchmistressmerchmistress Registered User regular
    Hear me Pinnys! This is the only run we will print of Armadeaddon. It will NOT be available at any other retailer even though the box is that awesome. Also, if you are planning an unboxing party you best record it! I live for the reactions of blind box openings!!!

  • Count3DCount3D Count Vancouver, BCRegistered User regular
    Bit the bullet and went for the case. Really excited to see what's inside! I might make an unboxing video.

    merchmistressNope
  • AyefkayAyefkay Queensland, AustraliaRegistered User regular
    bought 3x Armadeddon Cases (12boxes)

    I feel like I'll be telling this to a psychiatrist one day.....

    My PinnyPals Digital Lanyard: Now Up to date! https://pinnypals.com/pals/Ayefkay

    8fuuo_RK.png
    merchmistressJuicesirluckycharmfishfishmonkeyhatKamelonhadiwist
  • Squire_PugSquire_Pug Melbourne, AustraliaRegistered User regular
    Got 1 case, cant justify more than that, so opening/trading party in Melbourne Australia anyone?

  • brettness37brettness37 Vancouver, BCRegistered User regular
    I'm torn. I'm a sucker for the vinyl toys, and a veteran of ccgs. I reeeeeeeeally don't like this distribution method. However, I'm mostly interested in the most common pins, so I'm not going to get all wound up in hysterics about it. I'm hoping they limit it to one of these sets per year/18 months, and move the release to April/May to liven up the Pinter months and take the sting out of the buy-in right between 2 PAXes.

  • evanephrineevanephrine ev-an-eff-rinn Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    Juicesir wrote: »
    Lazorz wrote: »
    Well, this day just got a whole lot more interesting...
    CR9MPVKUkAAv5t7.jpg

    Collectors of Pins! PAXers! My pin pals!

    I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me! A day may come when the courage of traders fails, when we forsake our fullsets and break all bonds of completionism.

    But it is not this day.

    An hour of ultra rares and shattered pin groups when the age of Pinny comes crashing down!

    But it is not this day!

    This day we fight!

    By all that you hold dear on this good forum, I bid you stand!

    Traders of the Pins!

    You have my lanyard...

    Juicesir
  • AyefkayAyefkay Queensland, AustraliaRegistered User regular
    AND MY FOLDER!

    My PinnyPals Digital Lanyard: Now Up to date! https://pinnypals.com/pals/Ayefkay

    8fuuo_RK.png
  • fishfishmonkeyhatfishfishmonkeyhat Freelance Pin Man Newcastle, AustraliaRegistered User regular
    But not my money because PA has all of that.

    QumadenCapt WasabiluckycharmPAX_SkeletorcorinnetagsHappendy
  • dmosineedmosinee Davenport, IARegistered User regular
    For those concerned about these selling out before they get a chance / the money to order, I wouldn't worry based on the store inventory numbers. Looks like about only 300 total boxes (combined cases of twelve and individuals) sold over the weekend, with over six thousand still available. There will certainly be spikes around Pax Aus and Black Friday, but I strongly suspect these will last till the new year.

    Digital Lanyard, I love trades - https://www.pinnypals.com/pals/dmosinee
    http://pinmash.info - Two pins enter, one pins leaves... then the other pin leaves with a lower Elo rating
    fishfishmonkeyhatNopeCapt WasabiAyefkayCount3DD0rkAngl
  • MadkineMadkine AustraliaRegistered User regular
    dmosinee wrote: »
    For those concerned about these selling out before they get a chance / the money to order, I wouldn't worry based on the store inventory numbers. Looks like about only 300 total boxes (combined cases of twelve and individuals) sold over the weekend, with over six thousand still available. There will certainly be spikes around Pax Aus and Black Friday, but I strongly suspect these will last till the new year.

    I'm not entirely convinced on the number sold so far. Just in this thread I have 10 cases purchased and another 2-4 cases from box purchases. That means just the people posting in this thread comes close to the 300 you stated and as we saw with the most recent DSB's quite a few were purchased by people who don't post on/read these boards.

  • dmosineedmosinee Davenport, IARegistered User regular
    Madkine wrote: »
    I'm not entirely convinced on the number sold so far. Just in this thread I have 10 cases purchased and another 2-4 cases from box purchases. That means just the people posting in this thread comes close to the 300 you stated and as we saw with the most recent DSB's quite a few were purchased by people who don't post on/read these boards.

    That 300 number was just the number sold from Friday afternoon to Sunday night (PST), and there is hard data in the form of stock numbers to back that up -- the only real X factor is how many were sold between the sale going live on Thursday afternoon and my first recorded numbers on Friday afternoon. I agree on the majority of purchases not getting recorded in this thread; if 15 cases were purchased by posters in this thread, then that's 180 boxes out of what must at the very least be 1000 total boxes sold so far.

    Digital Lanyard, I love trades - https://www.pinnypals.com/pals/dmosinee
    http://pinmash.info - Two pins enter, one pins leaves... then the other pin leaves with a lower Elo rating
  • pvp_pandapvp_panda Registered User regular
    @dmosinee how are you looking up stock numbers?

  • MadkineMadkine AustraliaRegistered User regular
    dmosinee wrote: »
    That 300 number was just the number sold from Friday afternoon to Sunday night (PST), and there is hard data in the form of stock numbers to back that up -- the only real X factor is how many were sold between the sale going live on Thursday afternoon and my first recorded numbers on Friday afternoon. I agree on the majority of purchases not getting recorded in this thread; if 15 cases were purchased by posters in this thread, then that's 180 boxes out of what must at the very least be 1000 total boxes sold so far.

    Thanks for the clarification, that makes sense.

  • merchmistressmerchmistress Registered User regular
    Hey all- shipping has begun! Prepare yourselves for your unboxing videos- lights, camera, acrobats etc. Thank you in advance. <3MM

    2slayerumisskassTheAggroCraigQumadenNopeLazorzfishfishmonkeyhatsurettedmosineeCount3DKurpavKeroan
  • evil santaevil santa To infinity...and beyond!Registered User regular
    Awesome MerchMistress. I am looking forward to the unboxing, though it's a shame we won't be able to share it with you like at Prime.

    Sidenote - Can we pllllleeeeeaaassseee get a Pins tab on the PA Store now? I think there's enough Pinny Arcade content to warrant it...

    Pinny Pals Profile

    “I let out a battle cry. Sure, a lot of people might have mistaken it for a sudden yelp of unmanly fear, but trust me. It was a battle cry.”
    Keroanfishfishmonkeyhat
  • NopeNope Frankfort, KYRegistered User regular
    Hey all- shipping has begun! Prepare yourselves for your unboxing videos- lights, camera, acrobats etc. Thank you in advance. <3MM

    Literally just got a shipping email about it :)

  • corinnetagscorinnetags Academic Williamsport, PARegistered User regular
    I got my shipping email today!!!!

  • BekerBeker Child's Play Program Director SeattleRegistered User, Penny Arcade Staff regular
    evil santa wrote: »
    Sidenote - Can we pllllleeeeeaaassseee get a Pins tab on the PA Store now? I think there's enough Pinny Arcade content to warrant it...
    I believe that is one of the things intended for the store revamp, no eta on that.

    -Beker/Erick
    gQPRxvs.png
    evil santaKeroanfishfishmonkeyhat
  • Capt WasabiCapt Wasabi AustraliaRegistered User regular
    Beker wrote: »
    I believe that is one of the things intended for the store revamp, no eta on that.
    Oh so "Soon" then

    Qumaden
  • vonhistvonhist Mr Melbourne, AustraliaRegistered User regular
    No email for me yet. Looks like Aussies are last out again. Sniffle.

    :P

  • SennoSenno AustraliaRegistered User regular
    How can you see how many are left?

  • YoungFreyYoungFrey Registered User regular
    evil santa wrote: »
    Awesome MerchMistress. I am looking forward to the unboxing, though it's a shame we won't be able to share it with you like at Prime.

    Sidenote - Can we pllllleeeeeaaassseee get a Pins tab on the PA Store now? I think there's enough Pinny Arcade content to warrant it...

    And a checkbox to hide Killer Instinct pins <grin>.

  • dchoydchoy OregonRegistered User regular
    Haven't got a shipping confirmation yet. Wonder if it's because I used PayPal. Hmm...

    PAX Prime attendee since 2008.

    Another year of Prime gone by... commence the struggle!

    https://www.pinnypals.com/pals/dchoy
  • QumadenQumaden World's Mightiest Mortal Registered User regular
    edited October 2015
    dchoy wrote: »
    Haven't got a shipping confirmation yet. Wonder if it's because I used PayPal. Hmm...

    I am in the same boat, don't know if PayPal has anything to do with it, but we have it in common

    Qumaden on
  • SolelronSolelron Wandering Gamer Cornelius, ORRegistered User regular
    Qumaden wrote: »
    dchoy wrote: »
    Haven't got a shipping confirmation yet. Wonder if it's because I used PayPal. Hmm...

    I am in the same boat, don't know if PayPal has anything to do with it, but we have it in common

    No Paypal here, but no shipment..but *shrug*...they will arrive when they arrive :)

  • AjaxonAjaxon Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    Hey gang! I got my boxes today. I ordered 6 and here were my pulls (spoilerth: all commons!)
    • 1 Splatter Gabe
    • 2 Splatter Tycho
    • 1 Blood Rage FF
    • 2 Splatter Annarchy
    • 3 Spatter Charles
    • 1 Splatter Frank
    • 2 Splatter Galahad

    Good luck to you guys in nabbing the rarer ones!

    fishfishmonkeyhatevanephrineagentcooperCount3DJuicesir
  • SolelronSolelron Wandering Gamer Cornelius, ORRegistered User regular
    Ajaxon wrote: »
    Hey gang! I got my boxes today. I ordered 6 and here were my pulls (spoilerth: all commons!)
    • 1 Splatter Gabe
    • 2 Splatter Tycho
    • 1 Blood Rage FF
    • 2 Splatter Annarchy
    • 3 Spatter Charles
    • 1 Splatter Frank
    • 2 Splatter Galahad

    Good luck to you guys in nabbing the rarer ones!

    hrm..you'd think at least 1 uncommon..

    I'll be curious to distribution models when it comes to full cases.

  • YoungFreyYoungFrey Registered User regular
    edited October 2015
    Solelron wrote: »
    Ajaxon wrote: »
    Hey gang! I got my boxes today. I ordered 6 and here were my pulls (spoilerth: all commons!)
    • 1 Splatter Gabe
    • 2 Splatter Tycho
    • 1 Blood Rage FF
    • 2 Splatter Annarchy
    • 3 Spatter Charles
    • 1 Splatter Frank
    • 2 Splatter Galahad

    Good luck to you guys in nabbing the rarer ones!

    hrm..you'd think at least 1 uncommon..

    I'll be curious to distribution models when it comes to full cases.
    Assuming simple collation (meaning each pin can be anything regardless of the other pin in the box and the adjacent boxes being assembled), there should be a 28% chance to not get any 1-in-20 pins in 6 boxes. Although if everything was independent, there would be a 20% chance per pin of it being 1-in-20 or rarer, or 1-in-5. And the chance of getting none for 12 draws is only 7%. It still could have happened, but it is considerably rarer.

    YoungFrey on
  • MadkineMadkine AustraliaRegistered User regular
    Solelron wrote: »
    Ajaxon wrote: »
    Hey gang! I got my boxes today. I ordered 6 and here were my pulls (spoilerth: all commons!)
    • 1 Splatter Gabe
    • 2 Splatter Tycho
    • 1 Blood Rage FF
    • 2 Splatter Annarchy
    • 3 Spatter Charles
    • 1 Splatter Frank
    • 2 Splatter Galahad

    Good luck to you guys in nabbing the rarer ones!

    hrm..you'd think at least 1 uncommon..

    I'll be curious to distribution models when it comes to full cases.

    Not an unexpected distribution. He got each of the 1 in 8 and 1 in 10 pins from a 12 pin order and didn't get any of the 1 in 20 or rarer pins. From 6 boxes a 1 in 20 pin or better is a nice bonus as opposed to expected.

  • NorthNorth Registered User regular
    Madkine wrote: »
    Solelron wrote: »
    Ajaxon wrote: »
    Hey gang! I got my boxes today. I ordered 6 and here were my pulls (spoilerth: all commons!)
    • 1 Splatter Gabe
    • 2 Splatter Tycho
    • 1 Blood Rage FF
    • 2 Splatter Annarchy
    • 3 Spatter Charles
    • 1 Splatter Frank
    • 2 Splatter Galahad

    Good luck to you guys in nabbing the rarer ones!

    hrm..you'd think at least 1 uncommon..

    I'll be curious to distribution models when it comes to full cases.

    Not an unexpected distribution. He got each of the 1 in 8 and 1 in 10 pins from a 12 pin order and didn't get any of the 1 in 20 or rarer pins. From 6 boxes a 1 in 20 pin or better is a nice bonus as opposed to expected.

    Mmm, yes.

    I know some of these words.

    TheAggroCraigevanephrinefishfishmonkeyhatJuicesirluckycharmagentcooperbravesaturnD0rkAnglcalamityjamie
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