I'm going to go with Invictus and be back in a few hours to see what's up.
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AssuranIs swinging on the SpiralRegistered Userregular
I assume poison and stoning essentially takes 2 days to die, correct?
Also, death millers and dead seers, @38thDoe is a man after my own heart.
For now, I'm going to park a vote on Invictus. . He was in the lead yesterday, then Ketbra was pushed hard in front of him.
My guess is if Invictus is mafia, so is Gizzy because she threw a real late vote on him after the vote was already decided. Would help her with a vote record.
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H3KnucklesBut we decide which is rightand which is an illusion.Registered Userregular
edited May 2016
I should point out that I've been in separate PM contact with most of the late voters for KetBra. Now, I can't rule out that I'm incredibly naive, but it's one hell of a well-orchestrated con if they're all or mostly mafia. We didn't coordinate to vote for him/her, but I threw my lot in with them based on trust.
H3KnucklesBut we decide which is rightand which is an illusion.Registered Userregular
edited May 2016
Sorry for the double post. Yesterday's vote record in strictly chronological order for @jdarksun
voter: candidate (running tally)
phyphor (+royal decree): austin (1+1) *claimed mind control, supported by MrT
martoss: KetBra (1)
lonely: gizzy (1)
segatai: lostninja (1)
megafrost: gizzy (2)
MrT: ketbra (2)
megafrost: invictus (1)
MrT: invictus (2)
preda: brody (1) *but brody was already dead
zombie: invictus (3)
chamberlain: ketbra (2)
austin: cj (1)
infidel: lonely (1)
cj: ketbra (3)
lostninja: zombie hero (1)
gg: ketbra (4)
raiden: ketbra (5)
kime: invictus (4)
lostninja: ketbra (6)
invictus: ketbra (7)
h3k: ketbra (8)
gizzy: invictus (5)
dragon: invictus (6) *didn't count as it was 12 minutes after the bell
Edit: and today's voting so far... candidate [tally]: (voters in chronological order), strikethroughs mean changed votes, candidates are listed in order of most to least votes, then chronological order for ties
H3KnucklesBut we decide which is rightand which is an illusion.Registered Userregular
edited May 2016
Gameday 4 ends Sunday @ 10pm EST, right?
I guess I should vote for someone just in case though.
Gizzy? I'm super unclear on invictus and need to go back over the voting records more closely before I commit, but several long-timers seem to have posited gizzy at various times and they have been super low profile from what I can see, so tentatively going with that. Tonight/tomorrow I'll go over things more closely and see.
PS. Looking back at my own votes I see I RNG'ed DeamonIzual the first night, then tried to switch it when people pointed out that's frowned upon.
Ahava says she senses Gizzy, but I don't see it. I think the exchange between gg and kime last page is super illustrative, as GG is usually pretty sharp and he is 'confirmed' by his own word alone.
I'm at a party sothis is what I can do right now.
grunt's ghosts
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
That exchange looked bad, but it seemed more like Kime throwing shade than it made GG look bad. Going to go with Jdark. The lack of anyone getting stoned last night leads me to believe it was someone who was inactive. And so it's either him or one of the people that got replaced.
This is of course assuming the stoning is coming from the mafia and not just a villager that keeps missing.
Ahava says she senses Gizzy, but I don't see it. I think the exchange between gg and kime last page is super illustrative, as GG is usually pretty sharp and he is 'confirmed' by his own word alone.
I'm at a party sothis is what I can do right now.
grunt's ghosts
Have we met before? I feel like you are describing some alternate Earth-2 Grunt's Ghosts. One who acts smartly only because he wants to be a speedster serial killer.
+1
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cj iwakuraThe Rhythm RegentBears The Name FreedomRegistered Userregular
will put a vote for Gizzy just because this seems a little too certain right now for invictus, but probably both mafia or at least going to die at this level of scrutiny
Also @H3Knuckles you edited your vote post so it won't count, you'll need to vote again
That exchange looked bad, but it seemed more like Kime throwing shade than it made GG look bad. Going to go with Jdark. The lack of anyone getting stoned last night leads me to believe it was someone who was inactive. And so it's either him or one of the people that got replaced.
This is of course assuming the stoning is coming from the mafia and not just a villager that keeps missing.
will put a vote for Gizzy just because this seems a little too certain right now for invictus, but probably both mafia or at least going to die at this level of scrutiny
Also @H3Knuckles you edited your vote post so it won't count, you'll need to vote again
Well, it was just an off-the-cuff placeholder in case he ended it Saturday at 10, so it's probably for the best. I'll have a more carefully thought out vote before Sunday at 10. But seriously, editing within 4 minutes of the post and before the forum time hit 10 or anyone else had posted would still invalidate it?
will put a vote for Gizzy just because this seems a little too certain right now for invictus, but probably both mafia or at least going to die at this level of scrutiny
Also @H3Knuckles you edited your vote post so it won't count, you'll need to vote again
Well, it was just an off-the-cuff placeholder in case he ended it Saturday at 10, so it's probably for the best. I'll have a more carefully thought out vote before Sunday at 10. But seriously, editing within 4 minutes of the post and before the forum time hit 10 or anyone else had posted would still invalidate it?
Any edits, for post-history and vote-recording reasons, are illegitimate. don't edit vote posts.
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
+2
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H3KnucklesBut we decide which is rightand which is an illusion.Registered Userregular
edited May 2016
But... if it was before the votes would be counted, what does it matter? I mean, going forward I'll be more strict about not doing it, I just figured since I squeaked it in before (what would have been) end of voting, and no one else had posted yet, it couldn't affect anything. For the record, I was having trouble getting the bbcode to color the vote because I had accidentally entered a ' instead of a " and kept overlooking it.
Edit: okay, okay, I get it. I wrote this post before my page refreshed to show Invictus' post.
I would love it if you Gizzy voters explained why, if Gizzy is mafia, she jumped off the chamberlain bandwagon? Sure it was to another villager, but even a vigilante thought McKid was suspicious enough to eliminate. And if Gizzy hadn't jumped, the mafia could have kept the chamberlain wagon going and saved DemonIzual without making Gizzy seem particularly more suspicious.
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H3KnucklesBut we decide which is rightand which is an illusion.Registered Userregular
edited May 2016
H3Knuckles' big 3-day chronological voting list (with in-sequence changes, running tallies, & other notes) Day 1
Phyphor: AustinP0027 (1+1) - Phyphor used royal decree for +1 voting power, also claims to have been mind controlled (later backed up by MrT claiming similar about his day 2 vote)
Martoss: KetBra (1)
lonelyahava: Gizzy (1)
SeGaTai: LostNinja (1)
Megafrost: Gizzy (2)
MrTLicious: KetBra (2)
Megafrost: invictus (1), Gizzy (1)
MrTLicious: invictus (2), KetBra (1)
preda: Brody (1) - invalid; BrOdin was already dead!
Zombie Hero: invictus (3)
chamberlain: KetBra (2)
AustinP0027: cj iwakura (1)
Infidel: lonelyahava (1)
cj iwakura: KetBra (3)
LostNinja: Zombie Hero (1)
Grunt's Ghosts: KetBra (4)
Raiden333: KetBra (5)
kime: invictus (4)
LostNinja: KetBra (6), Zombie Hero (0)
invictus: KetBra (7)
H3Knuckles: KetBra (8)
Gizzy: invictus (5)
Dragon6860: invictus (6) - invalid; missed the deadline
Voting Results - candidates most votes to least (final tally): voters in chrono order, cancelled votes
Can someone make a clear statement of the arguments against Gizzy and I? I actually have some time today, so I'm going to do some analysis. If people also have other people I should do analysis on as suggestions, happy to do so.
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
Can someone make a clear statement of the arguments against Gizzy and I? I actually have some time today, so I'm going to do some analysis. If people also have other people I should do analysis on as suggestions, happy to do so.
I know my reasons. Why others are following my lead at this point I do not know. But it's making me nervous.
The only person i've marked red in there is DeamonIzual; everyone else who showed up red I did not on the basis that they're millers. I buy the speculation that the only real mafia are the four elemental lords, golbez, and ze(ro)mus. That would be 6, which is the appropriate number of mafia for a 30 person game.
In the canon, Golbez was mind-controlled. So was Kain, and Kain is colored dodgerblue like no one else. I'm interested in anything anyone knows about Kain's wincon; in the fiction he's mindcontroller partially because he was a rival of Cecil's for Rosa's love.
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
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H3KnucklesBut we decide which is rightand which is an illusion.Registered Userregular
edited May 2016
From what I can tell (and I'm still getting caught up on things from after-narrative last night, so this is probably missing details):
In the highly unlikely event the mafia thought they could score a 3-way tie and bump off both McKid and chamberlain for the cost of DeamonIzual (but remember the mafia knew his death would activate another kill power), Gizzy switching to McKid with two players who's affiliations are up in the air (wildcat/lonelyahava and jaysonfour/premium) still to vote might've been a mafia working with the confidence their teammates will boost chamberlain and McKid up for the tie. Combined with a general sense Gizzy has been keeping a very low profile and day 1 voting for Megafrost (now known to be village friendly), it's an argument, but not much of one in my opinion. Of course I'm hearing things from elsewhere that suggest Gizzy's not a baddie (but then I can think of enemies who are certainly in this game that probably would have abilities matching villagers, so...).
I'm... honestly not sure what the theory for Invictus is. Day one he voted for kime (no claims as far as I know), day two he voted for Martoss then almost immediately switched to me, then a little later switched to chamberlain (believed to be a miller monster) before ditching out to vote for Brody (now known to have been a villager-friendly summoned monster). Granted that last switch knocked chamberlain down 1 vote breaking a tie by giving Deamon a 1 vote lead, but as with the Gizzy theory if either or both of the missing voters were mafia too they probably thought they could still pull it away (but that doesn't explain why he would switch, just why it wouldn't be seen as high risk at the time). Day 3 invictus votes for KetBra, who proved to be friendly. Day four and invictus is voting for Grunt's Ghosts (also believed to be a miller monster). Again, it's kind of reaching, but the general pattern of his votes is that they usually turn out to be villagers, allies, or people strongly suspected of such. Invictus has also been talking to people I've been talking to, and made claims that indicate a friendly character with plausible power.
Gizzy has a lot of comments this game, but has been super unhelpful. There's more than that, but you get the idea. That last one is particularly interesting; it barely pretends to offer a defense. Why make the post if you're not actually going to defend yourself? Not sure how that weighs, though.
This is the substantive post she's made. She claims she was aiming at someone on the kime wagon, which is good because mafia might've been trying to save Izual. Then she says she feels good about her vote for chamberlain on the basis that he voted for Ketbra. She says that's weird because Ketbra broke a tie. But mafia break ties all the time; they want it to end a tie but usually it won't so they don't have any particular reason to keep it around early. In short, this is not a particularly interesting contribution.
On her changing votes a ton: I don't get this as a mafia thing. Mafia don't change votes. They're too busy on the mafia boards and too wary of bringing attention to themselves.
She also has several (functionally) one word votes. Aside from that, her vote record is mostly unexceptional. Random vote day 1, day 3 one word vote for me. But day 2 is interesting. She was the fourth vote on the McKid wagon. At the time, the chamberlain wagon had 4 votes and the Izual wagon had 6. She offers minimal justification for this vote, except that she doesn't want to vote for chamberlain because of the monster reveal. I think this vote is ambiguous. She could be a villager that has picked her most likely target, or she could be a mafia trying her best to non-suspiciously save Izual. Honestly, I think the vote record is a wash.
It's weird that Gizzy is getting this much pressure, though I can totally understand Ahava's point that the tone of her posts is suspicious, as she is saying a lot without contributing much. If I had no better options, I would vote Gizzy, but I'd look for better options.
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
Meta considerations. Queen of Eblan is actually good in FF4, just turned into a monster by experiments, which cause her to go crazy for a bit. She's more plot-related than the Mom Bomb, but plays a similar role as an intermediate boss that is not in fact particularly important.
Also, there should be six mafia and given that Cagnazzo is one of them, that means the other three fiends are mafia, and that leaves two mafia. If there are two mafia unaccounted for, one being the Queen of Eblan would be nearly incomprehensible, given Golbez and Ze(ro)mus.
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
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H3KnucklesBut we decide which is rightand which is an illusion.Registered Userregular
Because he was Queen of Eblan, a good person transformed against their will into a monster, Virgil claimed King of Eblan (ditto) and villager-aligned monster/death miller status, and while you have to fight the characters in game they talk to you showing their minds were still their own even if their bodies were out of control, and other boss monsters have been monster millers (one hard confirm, two plausible claims, including your own supporting argument). It's not absolute (until we hear back from the corpse seer) but seems very believable.
The point is any mafia voting for/attacking Phyphor would know he wasn't, unlike the rest of us who were bumbling around.
Posts
@JaysonFour is being replaced by @premium
@Dragon6860 is being replaced by @Assuran
effective now.
Who has a babby who just slept 6 hours?
meeeee (it will happen @38thDoe )!
Also,seriously, we should vote out Gizzy.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
Island Name: Felinefine
What will you learn from my death?
Island Name: Felinefine
I've not played in a while, and I'm not familiar with most people's play styles anymore.
So I'm trying to treat this as if I were new and/or reading along and not playing.
While I was still reserves, your posts and reactions to things came across as mafia. That did not change once I joined the game.
I play these games purely by instinct, I let the others get into the nitty gritty and strategy.
I think that as a village, your death will give us some information that could be rather important down the line.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
Also, death millers and dead seers, @38thDoe is a man after my own heart.
For now, I'm going to park a vote on Invictus. . He was in the lead yesterday, then Ketbra was pushed hard in front of him.
My guess is if Invictus is mafia, so is Gizzy because she threw a real late vote on him after the vote was already decided. Would help her with a vote record.
Edit: and today's voting so far...
candidate [tally]: (voters in chronological order), strikethroughs mean changed votes, candidates are listed in order of most to least votes, then chronological order for ties
I guess I should vote for someone just in case though.
Gizzy? I'm super unclear on invictus and need to go back over the voting records more closely before I commit, but several long-timers seem to have posited gizzy at various times and they have been super low profile from what I can see, so tentatively going with that. Tonight/tomorrow I'll go over things more closely and see.
PS. Looking back at my own votes I see I RNG'ed DeamonIzual the first night, then tried to switch it when people pointed out that's frowned upon.
I'm at a party sothis is what I can do right now.
grunt's ghosts
This is of course assuming the stoning is coming from the mafia and not just a villager that keeps missing.
Have we met before? I feel like you are describing some alternate Earth-2 Grunt's Ghosts. One who acts smartly only because he wants to be a speedster serial killer.
Also @H3Knuckles you edited your vote post so it won't count, you'll need to vote again
I am soooo shady
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
Steam profile
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
Well, it was just an off-the-cuff placeholder in case he ended it Saturday at 10, so it's probably for the best. I'll have a more carefully thought out vote before Sunday at 10. But seriously, editing within 4 minutes of the post and before the forum time hit 10 or anyone else had posted would still invalidate it?
because there's no way for anybody to know what it was you edited.
Your mafia buddies should be training you more than this. Honestly. Kids these days
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
Any edits, for post-history and vote-recording reasons, are illegitimate. don't edit vote posts.
Edit: okay, okay, I get it. I wrote this post before my page refreshed to show Invictus' post.
also you'll have players who go back through the thread all the time looking for clues/hints/errors, etc.
might not be as big a deal now on Vanilla, but it used o be a huge thing when you could hide that the post was edited.
It's just considered bad form. If you were playing in real time, you can't rewind your vote/statements on previous "nights" so you can't here either.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
Also 3 days in observer-mode is tough.
I remain poisoned; please help!
3DS: 1289-8447-4695
Day 1
- Megafrost: Gizzy (1)
- LostNinja: Sir Fabulous (1)
- Raiden333: Sir Fabulous (2)
- Virgil_Leads_You: H3Knuckles (1)
- Justice for Pluto: Sir Fabulous (3)
- cj iwakura: Megafrost (1)
- SLyM: Virgil_Leads_You (1)
- Martoss: Justice for Pluto (1)
- Cythraul: Martoss (1)
- preda: kime (1)
- SeGaTai: SLyM (1)
- MrTLicious: LostNinja (1)
- chamberlain: kime (2)
- AustinP0027: SeGaTai (1)
- Gizzy: Megafrost (2)
- Grunt's Ghosts: kime (3)
- Infidel: Wildcat (1)
- Auralynx: Martoss (2)
- Jaysonfour: Auralynx (1)
- jdarksun: Auralynx (2)
- McKid: preda (1)
- Brody: Raiden333 (1)
- Zombie Hero: Sir Fabulous (4)
- invictus: kime (4)
- Bedlam: Infidel (1)
- kime: Sir Fabulous (5)
- Virgil_Leads_You: SLyM (2+1), H3Knuckles (0) - Virgil used royal decree for +1 voting power
- Sir Fabulous: kime (5)
- Phyphor: LostNinja (2)
- DeamonIzual: kime (6)
- Cythraul: Sir Fabulous (6), Martoss (1)
- KetBra: Sir Fabulous (7)
- H3Knuckles: DeamonIzual (1) - RNG'ed
- H3Knuckles: Virgil_Leads_You (2), DeamonIzual (0) - invalid; missed the deadline
Voting Results - candidates most votes to least (final tally): voters in chrono order, cancelled votes- Sir Fabulous (7): LostNinja, Raiden333, Justice for Pluto, Zombie Hero, kime, Cythraul, KetBra
- kime (6): preda, chamberlain, Grunt's Ghosts, invictus, Sir Fabulous, DeamonIzual
- SLyM (2+1): SeGaTai, Virgil_Leads_You (+1 Royal Decree)
- Megafrost (2): cj iwakura, Gizzy
- LostNinja (2): MrTLicious, Phyphor
- Auralynx (2): Jaysonfour, jdarksun
- Martoss (1): Cythraul, Auralynx
- Gizzy (1): Megafrost
- Virgil_Leads_You (1): SLyM
- Justice for Pluto (1): Martoss
- SeGaTai (1): AustinP0027
- Wildcat (1): Infidel
- preda (1): McKid
- Raiden333 (1): Brody
- Infidel (1): Bedlam
- DeamonIzual (1): H3Knuckles
- H3Knuckles (0): Virgil_Leads_You
Missing votersDay 2
- Dragon6860: Wildcat (1)
- Brody: DeamonIzual (1)
- Phyphor: Brody (1)
- Zombie Hero: Virgil_Leads_You (1)
- Martoss: Justice for Pluto (1)
- H3Knuckles: Virgil_Leads_You (2)
- Megafrost: Martoss (1)
- MrTLicious: Infidel (1) - claims to have been mind controlled (after Phyphor made a similar claim in his Day 3 vote)
- preda: Brody (2)
- AustinP0027: Phyphor (1)
- Gizzy: chamberlain (1)
- invictus: Martoss (2)
- invictus: H3Knuckles (1), Martoss (1)
- chamberlain: KetBra (1)
- jdarksun: H3Knuckles (2)
- invictus: chamberlain (2), H3Knuckles (1)
- cj iwakura: chamberlain (3)
- Grunt's Ghosts: chamberlain (4)
- Zombie Hero: DeamonIzual (2), Virgil_Leads_You (1)
- Justice for Pluto: Gizzy (1)
- Virgil_Leads_You: Grunt's Ghosts (1)
- McKid: chamberlain (5)
- Virgil_Leads_You: McKid (1+1), Grunt's Ghosts (0) - Virgil used royal decree for +1 voting power
- AustinP0027: DeamonIzual (3), Phyphor (0)
- Raiden333: McKid (2+1)
- Dragon6860: DeamonIzual (4), wildcat (0)
- chamberlain: DeamonIzual (5), KetBra (0)
- Martoss: DeamonIzual (6), Justice for Pluto (0)
- DeamonIzual: chamberlain (6)
- preda: McKid (3+1), Brody (1)
- invictus: Brody (2), chamberlain (5)
- kime: Virgil_Leads_You (2)
- KetBra: chamberlain (6)
- Gizzy: McKid (4+1), chamberlain (5)
- SLyM: chamberlain (6)
- Megafrost: DeamonIzual (7), Martoss (0)
- cj iwakura: McKid (5+1), chamberlain (5)
- Justice for Pluto: DeamonIzual (8), Gizzy (0)
Voting Results - candidates most votes to least (final tally): voters in chrono order, cancelled votes- DeamonIzual (8): Brody, Zombie Hero, AustinP0027, Dragon6860, chamberlain, Martoss, Megafrost, Justice for Pluto
- McKid (5+1): Virgil_Leads_You (+1 Royal Decree), Raiden333, preda, Gizzy, cj iwakura
- chamberlain (5): Gizzy, invictus, cj iwakura, Grunt's Ghosts, McKid, DeamonIzual, KetBra, SLyM
- Brody (2): Phyphor, preda, invictus
- Virgil_Leads_You (2): Zombie Hero, H3Knuckles, kime
- H3Knuckles (1): invictus, jdarksun
- Infidel (1): MrTLicious
- Martoss (0): Megafrost, invictus
- Wildcat (0): Dragon6860
- Justice for Pluto (0): Martoss
- Phyphor (0): AustinP0027
- KetBra (0): chamberlain
- Gizzy (0): Justice for Pluto
- Grunt's Ghosts (0): Virgil_Leads_You
Missing VotersDay 3
- Phyphor: AustinP0027 (1+1) - Phyphor used royal decree for +1 voting power, also claims to have been mind controlled (later backed up by MrT claiming similar about his day 2 vote)
- Martoss: KetBra (1)
- lonelyahava: Gizzy (1)
- SeGaTai: LostNinja (1)
- Megafrost: Gizzy (2)
- MrTLicious: KetBra (2)
- Megafrost: invictus (1), Gizzy (1)
- MrTLicious: invictus (2), KetBra (1)
- preda: Brody (1) - invalid; BrOdin was already dead!
- Zombie Hero: invictus (3)
- chamberlain: KetBra (2)
- AustinP0027: cj iwakura (1)
- Infidel: lonelyahava (1)
- cj iwakura: KetBra (3)
- LostNinja: Zombie Hero (1)
- Grunt's Ghosts: KetBra (4)
- Raiden333: KetBra (5)
- kime: invictus (4)
- LostNinja: KetBra (6), Zombie Hero (0)
- invictus: KetBra (7)
- H3Knuckles: KetBra (8)
- Gizzy: invictus (5)
- Dragon6860: invictus (6) - invalid; missed the deadline
Voting Results - candidates most votes to least (final tally): voters in chrono order, cancelled votes- KetBra (8): Martoss, MrTLicious, chamberlain, cj iwakura, Grunt's Ghosts, Raiden333, LostNinja, invictus, H3Knuckles
- invictus (5): Megafrost, MrTLicious, kime, Zombie Hero, Gizzy
- AustinP0027 (1+1): Phyphor (+1 Royal Decree)
- Gizzy (1): lonelyahava, Megafrost
- LostNinja (1): SeGaTai
- cj iwakura (1): AustinP0027
- lonelyahava (1): Infidel
- Zombie Hero (0): LostNinja
Missing VotersBuh! Not worth the time I put into formatting all that (you don't want to know). I hope someone appreciates it.
I know my reasons. Why others are following my lead at this point I do not know. But it's making me nervous.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
Day 1
Kime: Preda (10), Chamberlain (13), Grunts Ghosts (16), Invictus (25), Sir Fab (29), DemonIzual (31) [6]
Megafrost: Cj Iwakura (6), Gizzy (15) [2]
Matross: Cythraul (9), Auralynx (18) [2]
Auralynx: JaysonFour (19), Jdarksun (20) [2]
SLyM: SeGaTai (11), Virgil Leads You (28) [2]
Lost Ninja: MrT (12), Phyphor (30) [2]
Virgil Leads You: SLyM (7) [1]
JusticeForPluto: Matross (8) [1]
SeGaTai: Austin (14) [1]
Wildcat: Infidel (17) [1]
Preda: McKid (21) [1]
Raiden33: Brody (22) [1]
Infidel: Bedlam (26) [1]
Gizzy: Megafrost (1) [1]
DemonIzual: H3Knuckles (34) [1]
H3Knuckles: Virgil Leads You (4) [0]
Day 2
Chamber: Gizzy(11), Invictus(16), CJ Iwa(17), GG(18), McKid(22), DemonIzual(29), Ketbra(32), SLyM(34) [5]
McKid: Virgil(23), Raiden33(25), Preda(30), Gizzy(33), CJ Iwa(36) [5+1?]
Brody: Phyphor(3), Preda(9), Invictus(30) [2]
Virgil: ZH(4), Knuckles(6), Kime(31) [2]
Knuckles: Invictus(13), Jdarksun(15) [1]
Justice: Martoss(5) [1]
Infidel: MrT(8) [1]
Martoss: Megafrost(7), Invictus(12) [0]
Ketbra: Chamber(14) [0]
Gizzy: Justice(20) [0]
Wildcat: Dragon6860(1) [0]
GG: Virgil(21) [0]
Phyphor: Austin(10) [0]
Day 3
In the canon, Golbez was mind-controlled. So was Kain, and Kain is colored dodgerblue like no one else. I'm interested in anything anyone knows about Kain's wincon; in the fiction he's mindcontroller partially because he was a rival of Cecil's for Rosa's love.
In the highly unlikely event the mafia thought they could score a 3-way tie and bump off both McKid and chamberlain for the cost of DeamonIzual (but remember the mafia knew his death would activate another kill power), Gizzy switching to McKid with two players who's affiliations are up in the air (wildcat/lonelyahava and jaysonfour/premium) still to vote might've been a mafia working with the confidence their teammates will boost chamberlain and McKid up for the tie. Combined with a general sense Gizzy has been keeping a very low profile and day 1 voting for Megafrost (now known to be village friendly), it's an argument, but not much of one in my opinion. Of course I'm hearing things from elsewhere that suggest Gizzy's not a baddie (but then I can think of enemies who are certainly in this game that probably would have abilities matching villagers, so...).
I'm... honestly not sure what the theory for Invictus is. Day one he voted for kime (no claims as far as I know), day two he voted for Martoss then almost immediately switched to me, then a little later switched to chamberlain (believed to be a miller monster) before ditching out to vote for Brody (now known to have been a villager-friendly summoned monster). Granted that last switch knocked chamberlain down 1 vote breaking a tie by giving Deamon a 1 vote lead, but as with the Gizzy theory if either or both of the missing voters were mafia too they probably thought they could still pull it away (but that doesn't explain why he would switch, just why it wouldn't be seen as high risk at the time). Day 3 invictus votes for KetBra, who proved to be friendly. Day four and invictus is voting for Grunt's Ghosts (also believed to be a miller monster). Again, it's kind of reaching, but the general pattern of his votes is that they usually turn out to be villagers, allies, or people strongly suspected of such. Invictus has also been talking to people I've been talking to, and made claims that indicate a friendly character with plausible power.
This is the substantive post she's made. She claims she was aiming at someone on the kime wagon, which is good because mafia might've been trying to save Izual. Then she says she feels good about her vote for chamberlain on the basis that he voted for Ketbra. She says that's weird because Ketbra broke a tie. But mafia break ties all the time; they want it to end a tie but usually it won't so they don't have any particular reason to keep it around early. In short, this is not a particularly interesting contribution.
On her changing votes a ton: I don't get this as a mafia thing. Mafia don't change votes. They're too busy on the mafia boards and too wary of bringing attention to themselves.
She also has several (functionally) one word votes. Aside from that, her vote record is mostly unexceptional. Random vote day 1, day 3 one word vote for me. But day 2 is interesting. She was the fourth vote on the McKid wagon. At the time, the chamberlain wagon had 4 votes and the Izual wagon had 6. She offers minimal justification for this vote, except that she doesn't want to vote for chamberlain because of the monster reveal. I think this vote is ambiguous. She could be a villager that has picked her most likely target, or she could be a mafia trying her best to non-suspiciously save Izual. Honestly, I think the vote record is a wash.
It's weird that Gizzy is getting this much pressure, though I can totally understand Ahava's point that the tone of her posts is suspicious, as she is saying a lot without contributing much. If I had no better options, I would vote Gizzy, but I'd look for better options.
Meta considerations. Queen of Eblan is actually good in FF4, just turned into a monster by experiments, which cause her to go crazy for a bit. She's more plot-related than the Mom Bomb, but plays a similar role as an intermediate boss that is not in fact particularly important.
Also, there should be six mafia and given that Cagnazzo is one of them, that means the other three fiends are mafia, and that leaves two mafia. If there are two mafia unaccounted for, one being the Queen of Eblan would be nearly incomprehensible, given Golbez and Ze(ro)mus.
Because he was Queen of Eblan, a good person transformed against their will into a monster, Virgil claimed King of Eblan (ditto) and villager-aligned monster/death miller status, and while you have to fight the characters in game they talk to you showing their minds were still their own even if their bodies were out of control, and other boss monsters have been monster millers (one hard confirm, two plausible claims, including your own supporting argument). It's not absolute (until we hear back from the corpse seer) but seems very believable.
The point is any mafia voting for/attacking Phyphor would know he wasn't, unlike the rest of us who were bumbling around.
Edited for clarity