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The 2016 Downticket Elections Thread for People Who Are Capable of On-Topic Civility

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    Solomaxwell6Solomaxwell6 Registered User regular
    Hakkekage wrote: »
    How do jungle primaries work?

    Every candidate who manages to hit some kind of low threshold gets on one primary ballot, every primary voter can vote for any one person on the ballot. Then the general is between just the top two from the jungle primary.

    This has problems because you might have some place where ten Democrats are running and two Republicans. Even if Republicans are a small minority of the district, the Dem vote might be split enough that the Republicans win and the general election is between two people that 80% of the electorate hates.

    As far as CA has gone so far it appears that Dem only districts far outweigh GOP only districts.

    That's not an issue if it's representative of the district, though. Even if it usually tends to produce general election contests that are representative, it has a strong potential for disaster missing in a traditional primary system, or--even better--a ranked system.

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    DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    Yea, Jungle seems to make more sense with a more complicated voting system than FPTP in the primary.

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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    The thing to remember is that a jungle "primary" is not an actual primary election. Rather, it is an open general election with a mandatory runoff.

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    knitdanknitdan In ur base Killin ur guysRegistered User regular
    Hakkekage wrote: »
    How do jungle primaries work?

    Every candidate who manages to hit some kind of low threshold gets on one primary ballot, every primary voter can vote for any one person on the ballot. Then the general is between just the top two from the jungle primary.

    This has problems because you might have some place where ten Democrats are running and two Republicans. Even if Republicans are a small minority of the district, the Dem vote might be split enough that the Republicans win and the general election is between two people that 80% of the electorate hates.

    Again, it's worth pointing out that Louisiana once had such a system.

    They dropped it after it very nearly got a Klansman elected governor.

    You keep saying this, but it seems to me that it's more a problem with Louisiana than with top two primaries.

    “I was quick when I came in here, I’m twice as quick now”
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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    Indiana's got a senate seat that'll be open! I... I just don't see it being swung D though.

    I mean, I'd love to see that, but this state's pretty fucking high on Trump, so I dunno. Though we did manage to get Donnelly into the Senate after Mourdock did his "God intended for you to get raped, so now you get to have a rape-baby, I hope you feel blessed" thing. I'm just not sure that Todd Young will be quite so massively monstrous.

    The idea of Indiana having 2 D Senators amuses me though.

    I've given to Baron Hill on the concept that its a relatively cheap media market and Hill is a credible candidate (and he used to represent many of my wife's Indiana cousins and her family farm) and there's an open seat...

    But yeah its a stretch

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    knitdan wrote: »
    Hakkekage wrote: »
    How do jungle primaries work?

    Every candidate who manages to hit some kind of low threshold gets on one primary ballot, every primary voter can vote for any one person on the ballot. Then the general is between just the top two from the jungle primary.

    This has problems because you might have some place where ten Democrats are running and two Republicans. Even if Republicans are a small minority of the district, the Dem vote might be split enough that the Republicans win and the general election is between two people that 80% of the electorate hates.

    Again, it's worth pointing out that Louisiana once had such a system.

    They dropped it after it very nearly got a Klansman elected governor.

    You keep saying this, but it seems to me that it's more a problem with Louisiana than with top two primaries.

    Its designed in theory to allow third party candidates that are more credible than the 2nd major party candidate. So in a highly liberal area you might get Dem - Green and in conservative areas GOP - Constitutional/Libertarian. Most of the time you still end up with Dem-Dem or GOP-GOP, but sometimes you get a Nazi.

    Or in France you get National Front.

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    Rep Randy Forbes R is the 2nd incumbent to go down

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    DaedalusDaedalus Registered User regular
    Hakkekage wrote: »
    How do jungle primaries work?

    Every candidate who manages to hit some kind of low threshold gets on one primary ballot, every primary voter can vote for any one person on the ballot. Then the general is between just the top two from the jungle primary.

    This has problems because you might have some place where ten Democrats are running and two Republicans. Even if Republicans are a small minority of the district, the Dem vote might be split enough that the Republicans win and the general election is between two people that 80% of the electorate hates.

    Again, it's worth pointing out that Louisiana once had such a system.

    They dropped it after it very nearly got a Klansman elected governor.

    Wait, a 61-39 blowout is "very nearly", now?

    It's a runoff election. Lots of places use them. The game theory here is pretty well-studied; it gets you closer to the Condorcet winner than FPTP but is still not great compared to some other systems.

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    jmcdonaldjmcdonald I voted, did you? DC(ish)Registered User regular
    Hakkekage wrote: »
    How do jungle primaries work?

    poorly

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    Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    Daedalus wrote: »
    Hakkekage wrote: »
    How do jungle primaries work?

    Every candidate who manages to hit some kind of low threshold gets on one primary ballot, every primary voter can vote for any one person on the ballot. Then the general is between just the top two from the jungle primary.

    This has problems because you might have some place where ten Democrats are running and two Republicans. Even if Republicans are a small minority of the district, the Dem vote might be split enough that the Republicans win and the general election is between two people that 80% of the electorate hates.

    Again, it's worth pointing out that Louisiana once had such a system.

    They dropped it after it very nearly got a Klansman elected governor.

    Wait, a 61-39 blowout is "very nearly", now?

    It's a runoff election. Lots of places use them. The game theory here is pretty well-studied; it gets you closer to the Condorcet winner than FPTP but is still not great compared to some other systems.

    Being one bad day in November away from winning an election counts as nearly to me.

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    Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Alexandria, VARegistered User regular
    Hakkekage wrote: »
    How do jungle primaries work?

    Every candidate who manages to hit some kind of low threshold gets on one primary ballot, every primary voter can vote for any one person on the ballot. Then the general is between just the top two from the jungle primary.

    This has problems because you might have some place where ten Democrats are running and two Republicans. Even if Republicans are a small minority of the district, the Dem vote might be split enough that the Republicans win and the general election is between two people that 80% of the electorate hates.

    Again, it's worth pointing out that Louisiana once had such a system.

    They dropped it after it very nearly got a Klansman elected governor.

    They did? I thought Cassidy and Edwards both won in runoffs.

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    DaedalusDaedalus Registered User regular
    Knight_ wrote: »
    Daedalus wrote: »
    Hakkekage wrote: »
    How do jungle primaries work?

    Every candidate who manages to hit some kind of low threshold gets on one primary ballot, every primary voter can vote for any one person on the ballot. Then the general is between just the top two from the jungle primary.

    This has problems because you might have some place where ten Democrats are running and two Republicans. Even if Republicans are a small minority of the district, the Dem vote might be split enough that the Republicans win and the general election is between two people that 80% of the electorate hates.

    Again, it's worth pointing out that Louisiana once had such a system.

    They dropped it after it very nearly got a Klansman elected governor.

    Wait, a 61-39 blowout is "very nearly", now?

    It's a runoff election. Lots of places use them. The game theory here is pretty well-studied; it gets you closer to the Condorcet winner than FPTP but is still not great compared to some other systems.

    Being one bad day in November away from winning an election counts as nearly to me.

    Well, I've got some bad news for this November, then...

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    Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    Daedalus wrote: »
    Knight_ wrote: »
    Daedalus wrote: »
    Hakkekage wrote: »
    How do jungle primaries work?

    Every candidate who manages to hit some kind of low threshold gets on one primary ballot, every primary voter can vote for any one person on the ballot. Then the general is between just the top two from the jungle primary.

    This has problems because you might have some place where ten Democrats are running and two Republicans. Even if Republicans are a small minority of the district, the Dem vote might be split enough that the Republicans win and the general election is between two people that 80% of the electorate hates.

    Again, it's worth pointing out that Louisiana once had such a system.

    They dropped it after it very nearly got a Klansman elected governor.

    Wait, a 61-39 blowout is "very nearly", now?

    It's a runoff election. Lots of places use them. The game theory here is pretty well-studied; it gets you closer to the Condorcet winner than FPTP but is still not great compared to some other systems.

    Being one bad day in November away from winning an election counts as nearly to me.

    Well, I've got some bad news for this November, then...

    Yep. It's terrifying isn't it.

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    edited June 2016


    The "anti-establishment" thing the media has been pushing remains BS. Clinton won. Every incumbent that didn't get their district moved has won his/her primary.



    edit
    Trump won not because he's anti-establishment... he won because he's openly a bigot, had good name recognition and is entertaining. That's a winning combination in a field of 16 in the GOP

    edit2
    True on the wording, Ralston is the #1 source for Nevada but I'll modify

    PantsB on
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    knitdanknitdan In ur base Killin ur guysRegistered User regular
    Surely there's a better way to phrase that first tweet.

    At first I thought they were making some sick joke like "haha, Bernie endorsed these 3 and now Clinton is going to literally murder them"

    “I was quick when I came in here, I’m twice as quick now”
    -Indiana Solo, runner of blades
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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    edited June 2016
    A follow up to those


    Two "establishment" House candidates, and Dina Titus, each challenged by Sanders backers plus Reid's chosen successor Catherine Cortez Mastro won in Nevada and are each likely favored now, which would be +2D in the House.

    PantsB on
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    Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    Incumbent lost in my district. But it was more the giant corruption scandal/trial than any antiestablishment push :p

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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    Can't say I'm too terribly surprised by those results after the twin fiascos in MD and PA.

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    davidsdurionsdavidsdurions Your Trusty Meatshield Panhandle NebraskaRegistered User regular
    I don't think there are any non-incumbents even trying for election in my area downtickets... :sad:

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    CoinageCoinage Heaviside LayerRegistered User regular
    I live in VA10, and once again the Dem candidate seems to be someone who just didn't have anything better to do, even though the district is only slightly Republican by CPVI, but oh well I guess Barbara Comstock gets to be the new Frank Wolf.

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    Coinage wrote: »
    I live in VA10, and once again the Dem candidate seems to be someone who just didn't have anything better to do, even though the district is only slightly Republican by CPVI, but oh well I guess Barbara Comstock gets to be the new Frank Wolf.

    The DCCC is backing her with ad buys. That article says she's also Jim Moran's ex-wife, so she's not completely random.

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/06/15/marco-rubio-says-he-will-reconsider-leaving-senate/
    Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who pledged for months not to seek re-election to the Senate as he waged an ill-fated campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, said Wednesday that he is rethinking that decision and could enter the race as soon as next week.

    Rubio said his decision followed a Sunday conversation with his friend Florida Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R), who is running to succeed him in the Senate, on the sidelines of the scene of the terror attack in Orlando.

    “Obviously, I take very seriously everything that’s going on — not just Orlando, but in our country,” Rubio said. “I enjoy my service here a lot. So I’ll go home later this week, and I’ll have some time with my family, and then if there’s been a change in our status I’ll be sure to let everyone know.”

    So Rubio is back in
    Two congressmen — Alan Grayson and Patrick Murphy — are battling for the Democratic nominations. Murphy has the support of the national party campaign operation and has already raised more than $7.7 million for his campaign — more than any of the Republican candidates.

    Grayson is a dumbass, Murphy is meh from a liberal perspective but probably decent as a candidate in Florida

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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    Grayson isn't just a goose, he's a time bomb - he's facing serious ethics charges revolving around his hedge funds.

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    So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    Oh, Rubio

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    Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    Well, so much for winning that senate seat. Oh well, I had dreams.

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    PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Honestly if they want to prevent Rubio from getting into the race, put the sign up sheet in the senate, he'll never find it.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

    pleasepaypreacher.net
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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    Knight_ wrote: »
    Well, so much for winning that senate seat. Oh well, I had dreams.

    Don't count it lost. Rubio isn't exactly popular, and pulling this sort of stunt won't help him. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP torpedoes his run themselves.

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    RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    Knight_ wrote: »
    Well, so much for winning that senate seat. Oh well, I had dreams.

    Don't count it lost. Rubio isn't exactly popular, and pulling this sort of stunt won't help him. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP torpedoes his run themselves.

    Or someone funds a "true conservative" to run at him from the right.

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    CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    Knight_ wrote: »
    Daedalus wrote: »
    Hakkekage wrote: »
    How do jungle primaries work?

    Every candidate who manages to hit some kind of low threshold gets on one primary ballot, every primary voter can vote for any one person on the ballot. Then the general is between just the top two from the jungle primary.

    This has problems because you might have some place where ten Democrats are running and two Republicans. Even if Republicans are a small minority of the district, the Dem vote might be split enough that the Republicans win and the general election is between two people that 80% of the electorate hates.

    Again, it's worth pointing out that Louisiana once had such a system.

    They dropped it after it very nearly got a Klansman elected governor.

    Wait, a 61-39 blowout is "very nearly", now?

    It's a runoff election. Lots of places use them. The game theory here is pretty well-studied; it gets you closer to the Condorcet winner than FPTP but is still not great compared to some other systems.

    Being one bad day in November away from winning an election counts as nearly to me.

    All it takes is one huge scandal.

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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Rubio's favorability is 32/54, and he trails Murphy by a point despite only two fifths of people knowing who Murphy is. Among people who said they knew both, Murphy leads by 22. (Source: PPP, June 7)

    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor changed Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    Rep Randy Forbes R is the 2nd incumbent to go down

    To an Ex Navy SEAL with an anti-Obama book and some charity work fixing kids cleft pallets, though. I'm guessing that seat stays red.

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    Mr KhanMr Khan Not Everyone WAHHHRegistered User regular
    Plus Murphy will have a lot of ammo to lob against Rubio, all the attack ads and oppo research done by fellow Republicans no less.

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    PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Mr Khan wrote: »
    Plus Murphy will have a lot of ammo to lob against Rubio, all the attack ads and oppo research done by fellow Republicans no less.

    Well and someone who said they would not go back for their seat, and then does, that's not exactly a winning campaign.

    "I gave up on you guys, but now I'm back vote for me!"

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

    pleasepaypreacher.net
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    So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    Preacher wrote: »
    Honestly if they want to prevent Rubio from getting into the race, put the sign up sheet in the senate, he'll never find it.

    Daaaaaaaaamn

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    joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    Didn't Rubio recently chastise Trump for not knowing and/or acknowledging he had said repeatedly that he would be a private citizen

    And now he's basically saying Trump was right and he is still doing politics

    "No! ...except yes."

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    MuddypawsMuddypaws Lactodorum, UKRegistered User regular
    To be fair, politics must be one hell of an addictive gravy train if you can leap aboard. A golden trough if you can find the right billionaire.

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    Didn't Rubio recently chastise Trump for not knowing and/or acknowledging he had said repeatedly that he would be a private citizen

    And now he's basically saying Trump was right and he is still doing politics

    "No! ...except yes."

    Muddypaws wrote: »
    To be fair, politics must be one hell of an addictive gravy train if you can leap aboard. A golden trough if you can find the right billionaire.

    Naw he could make more as a lobbyist. It's usually not a money thing directly to be fair

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    milskimilski Poyo! Registered User regular
    Muddypaws wrote: »
    To be fair, politics must be one hell of an addictive gravy train if you can leap aboard. A golden trough if you can find the right billionaire.

    I mean even if you don't lobby or get a rich fundraiser, you're still getting a 180k government salary with permanent perks/retirement benefits. You do have to maintain two homes, though, which bites into it... but not that much.

    I ate an engineer
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    PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Seeing as how Rubio has grifted from every level of government he's been elected to, he's not making the regular take home.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

    pleasepaypreacher.net
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    Solomaxwell6Solomaxwell6 Registered User regular
    Rubio's favorability is 32/54, and he trails Murphy by a point despite only two fifths of people knowing who Murphy is. Among people who said they knew both, Murphy leads by 22. (Source: PPP, June 7)

    Probably not too meaningful, because I'm going to guess the sample of people who know Murphy skews heavily Democrat, whereas most of the state would know Rubio.

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