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The 2016 Downticket Elections Thread for People Who Are Capable of On-Topic Civility

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    MillMill Registered User regular
    So we have the first casualty from Virginia redrawn district lawns. Rep Randy Forbes (R) is on the way out after losing his primary bid. For those that aren't familiar with the whole back story. Forbes currently represents a district that is only Republican thanks to bullshit gerrymandering. With the district changes, the district he is in is likely to flip to democrat. So Forbes did two things in light of this change. First, he filed suit, where he lost the case before SCOTUS with some of the judges not at all impressed with his antics. The other thing he did was run in the neighboring 2nd district, which is more conservative and currently open IIRC correctly.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/virginia-gop-lawmaker-loses-congressional-seat-in-new-district/

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    joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    I thought you had to live in a district to run in it? Is that not the case everywhere or does he own property there too?

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    DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    I thought you had to live in a district to run in it? Is that not the case everywhere or does he own property there too?

    Don't know of anywhere (on the federal level) that is the case. Like most states require you to be a resident of the state but I haven't seen it on the district level.

    Though local cities/counties have been on that lately as well.

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    joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    Oh okay, I suppose it must be a local election thing.

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    MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Iowa has a Senate seat on the ballot too. That goose Chuck Grassley (the chair of the Judiciary Committee who's been blocking any Supreme Court nominees) is running for reelection yet again. Opponent is former Iowa Lt. Governor Patty Judge, who has called herself "The Judge that Grassley can't ignore". Grassley has gone hard right in the last few years, going from someone who did appear to care about Iowa to a Tea Party stooge. He needs to go, but current polls are indicating he will win handily if nothing changes.

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    If this is accurate and holds or improves we could take the House
    In our first publication of our generic congressional ballot question, Democrats hold a sizable advantage nationwide at 44% to 33%. Keep in mind that national vote share does not correspond to success at the district level due to how districts are drawn but this question should be a useful barometer for tracking support levels nationwide
    http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7287

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    ToxTox I kill threads he/himRegistered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    If this is accurate and holds or improves we could take the House
    In our first publication of our generic congressional ballot question, Democrats hold a sizable advantage nationwide at 44% to 33%. Keep in mind that national vote share does not correspond to success at the district level due to how districts are drawn but this question should be a useful barometer for tracking support levels nationwide
    http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7287

    I'd be interested in seeing Incumbent satisfaction and/or retention factored into this

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    Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Alexandria, VARegistered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    Iowa has a Senate seat on the ballot too. That goose Chuck Grassley (the chair of the Judiciary Committee who's been blocking any Supreme Court nominees) is running for reelection yet again. Opponent is former Iowa Lt. Governor Patty Judge, who has called herself "The Judge that Grassley can't ignore". Grassley has gone hard right in the last few years, going from someone who did appear to care about Iowa to a Tea Party stooge. He needs to go, but current polls are indicating he will win handily if nothing changes.
    Grassley's under 50, she's over 40, and there are still something like 30% of Iowans who don't know her. That's not a great position for him.

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    So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    Iowa has a Senate seat on the ballot too. That goose Chuck Grassley (the chair of the Judiciary Committee who's been blocking any Supreme Court nominees) is running for reelection yet again. Opponent is former Iowa Lt. Governor Patty Judge, who has called herself "The Judge that Grassley can't ignore". Grassley has gone hard right in the last few years, going from someone who did appear to care about Iowa to a Tea Party stooge. He needs to go, but current polls are indicating he will win handily if nothing changes.

    /donates

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    JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    re: Kansas being weird, shit like this is going down.
    A tech CEO blamed Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback and his ultra-conservative policies for his decision to move his company — and its jobs — to another state.

    “It’s not so much that I’m moving the company to Missouri as I’m moving it away from Kansas,” said Jeff Blackwood, CEO of Pathfinder Health Innovations.

    Blackwood, whose privately held company provides software to autism therapy centers, wrote a blistering attack of Brownback and the Republican-dominated legislature — which he said had destroyed the state’s economy with failed conservative policies.

    “Kansas has become a test center of ‘trickle down’ economics, espoused by economist Arthur Laffer during the Reagan years,” Blackwood wrote in a personal post on the company’s blog. “Nowhere has there been as thorough an implementation of Laffer’s policy recommendations — and nowhere has there been as dramatic a failure of government.”

    ...



    Blackwood ripped the governor for placing the burden for his mistakes on children and the developmentally disabled with cuts to education and social services.

    “You’ll hear claims from Kansas officials that funding to education is at an all time high, but it’s just an accounting trick – they chose to shuffle money for special education and retirement funds through the schools so it could appear as an increase on the books,” Blackwood said.

    The Republican legislature had instead focused on freezing teacher salaries, pursuing funding cuts later ruled unconstitutional and laws calling for teachers to be imprisoned for introducing “offensive” content, Blackwood said.

    He accused Brownback and his GOP “cronies” of intentionally undermining public education and diverting taxpayer funds — and students — to private and religious schools.

    “In the end, I believe the goals of the Brownback administration are going exactly to plan — starve the state of resources to the point where it just makes sense to turn over critical government functions to for-profit entities,” Blackwood said.

    The CEO accused Brownback of turning the state’s Medicaid program, KanCare, into a cash cow for three insurance companies — which he said forced pregnant women to wait months for care and kept health care providers from being paid for their service.

    Blackwood blamed the governor’s policies for the murder of a 61-year-old man by a patient improperly released from an underfunded mental health care facility and the rape of a worker at another hospital.

    “I can’t, in good conscience, continue to give our tax money to a government that actively works against the needs of its citizens; a state that is systematically targeting the citizens in most need, denying them critical care and reducing their cost of life as if they’re simply a tax burden that should be ignored,” Blackwood said.

    ...

    “I believe that it is the responsibility of business owners and people with some voice in society should speak up against these destructive policies,” Blackwood said. “And I believe it is far past the time that Sam Brownback and his cronies admit the damage they’ve caused to the people of Kansas and resign in the shame they deserve.”

    ...holy shit. That's a company CEO.

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    So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    That letter is amazing.

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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    NV legislator and Bundy supporter Michelle Fiore loses her Congressional race.

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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    In case you needed a reminder of how goosey Fiore is:
    The outspoken Nevada Republican drew national media attention earlier this year for her role in brokering the standoff between federal agents and self-styled militia members occupying a wildlife refuge in remote northeastern Oregon. Fiore said at the time that one of the occupiers who was killed in a shootout with federal law enforcement, LaVoy Finicum, was “murdered with his hands up,” even though authorities said that Finicum was shot when he reached inside his jacket toward his weapon.

    Both during the Malheur Wildlife Refuge occupation and during the armed standoff against the Bureau of Land Management at Cliven Bundy’s ranch in 2014, Fiore emerged as one of the most prominent defenders of the Bundy family, whom she called “patriots.”

    Fiore also made headlines for her startling comments on gun rights.

    In December she offered to fly to Europe to shoot Syrian refugees in the head, and later that month sent out a Christmas card in which every member of her family, including her 5-year-old grandson, was armed with a gun.

    Her suggestion that citizens can take aim at police as long as law enforcement draw their weapons first also drew censure from Nevada’s largest police union.

    In a letter to Fiore, Nevada Association of Public Safety Officers Executive Director Rick McCann called her remarks “utterly irresponsible, an embarrassment to your District and our State, and they continue to demonstrate why you are unqualified to hold the position of United States Congresswoman."

    Republican Danny Tarkanian won the race for the House seat with 34 percent of the vote, while Nevada state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson came in second with 24 percent.

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    override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    edited June 2016

    this makes me very happy

    now if only somehow paul ryan could lose

    override367 on
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    TNTrooperTNTrooper Registered User regular
    Rubio's poll numbers in the race he isn't entering are better then the one he did enter.

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    Solomaxwell6Solomaxwell6 Registered User regular
    TNTrooper wrote: »
    Rubio's poll numbers in the race he isn't entering are better then the one he did enter.

    He's been talking quite a bit recently about how he might just run for his seat again after all.

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    The EnderThe Ender Registered User regular
    Just want to take a moment this Friday to remind everyone to vote for your damn school board members (after reading-up on them, of course).


    That shit's so important, but few people do it because it's rarely in a political limelight unless it gets embarrassingly bad.

    With Love and Courage
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Unless you're a black person in Michigan, in which case your state government has probably taken your school board's power away!

    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    MillMill Registered User regular
    The Ender wrote: »
    Just want to take a moment this Friday to remind everyone to vote for your damn school board members (after reading-up on them, of course).


    That shit's so important, but few people do it because it's rarely in a political limelight unless it gets embarrassingly bad.

    Seriously, people need to vote in the really low level elections, even if it's fucking stupid thing to have elections for because if they don't it make easier for really shitty individuals to win those elections. Once a shitty individual gets into one of those seats, they can fuck things up because even if it's a dumb thing to have as an elected office, it still has some power. Worse, they can then use that office as a spring board into a higher office.

    Participation is the best way to lay the ground work to remove really stupid elected offices. Boycotts just mean that your more likely to have some fringe jackass win the school board or local dog catcher seat and then fuck up everything they can possible can with the position.

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    Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    I live in Philly and the governor picks our board members instead of the mayor mostly because they were trying to sell the school district off to private interests instead of helping pay for it. Still doing that, but slowly via charter schools. Property tax based school funding is really stupid it turns out.

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    NobodyNobody Registered User regular
    The Ender wrote: »
    Just want to take a moment this Friday to remind everyone to vote for your damn school board members (after reading-up on them, of course).


    That shit's so important, but few people do it because it's rarely in a political limelight unless it gets embarrassingly bad.

    In my district they're all shitty. I have a choice between people cross-filing as Democrat and Republican, or just filing Republican, to give you an idea.

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    The EnderThe Ender Registered User regular
    Nobody wrote: »
    The Ender wrote: »
    Just want to take a moment this Friday to remind everyone to vote for your damn school board members (after reading-up on them, of course).


    That shit's so important, but few people do it because it's rarely in a political limelight unless it gets embarrassingly bad.

    In my district they're all shitty. I have a choice between people cross-filing as Democrat and Republican, or just filing Republican, to give you an idea.

    Honestly, IMHO, this makes it more important to vote. Read up on all of them, find out who the least shitty one is, vote for them. In a line-up of terrible candidate, you do not want the worst of the worst to win.

    With Love and Courage
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    MillMill Registered User regular
    Also depending on some other factors, it's possible to run a successful write in campaign for some of the lower races. If you can get the organization down, you might just get a majority of the vote because a vast majority of voters don't bother voting. It's really an indictment against such seats being elected positions because if people don't give a shit to vote for them, they really should be either filled in by appointment or by a normal hiring process (hell some of them really should be filled with the normal hiring process because they do have some requirements that need to be met in order to do the job).

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    Mr KhanMr Khan Not Everyone WAHHHRegistered User regular
    Mill wrote: »
    Also depending on some other factors, it's possible to run a successful write in campaign for some of the lower races. If you can get the organization down, you might just get a majority of the vote because a vast majority of voters don't bother voting. It's really an indictment against such seats being elected positions because if people don't give a shit to vote for them, they really should be either filled in by appointment or by a normal hiring process (hell some of them really should be filled with the normal hiring process because they do have some requirements that need to be met in order to do the job).

    Funny story was my mother got elected township auditor by accident in 2000 or so for exactly this reason, on the backs of votes from dad and both sets of my grandparents who were just pitching a name out there. Maybe our neighbor too, i forget.

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    PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    Mr Khan wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    Also depending on some other factors, it's possible to run a successful write in campaign for some of the lower races. If you can get the organization down, you might just get a majority of the vote because a vast majority of voters don't bother voting. It's really an indictment against such seats being elected positions because if people don't give a shit to vote for them, they really should be either filled in by appointment or by a normal hiring process (hell some of them really should be filled with the normal hiring process because they do have some requirements that need to be met in order to do the job).

    Funny story was my mother got elected township auditor by accident in 2000 or so for exactly this reason, on the backs of votes from dad and both sets of my grandparents who were just pitching a name out there. Maybe our neighbor too, i forget.

    Did she accept?

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    MvrckMvrck Dwarven MountainhomeRegistered User regular
    Mr Khan wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    Also depending on some other factors, it's possible to run a successful write in campaign for some of the lower races. If you can get the organization down, you might just get a majority of the vote because a vast majority of voters don't bother voting. It's really an indictment against such seats being elected positions because if people don't give a shit to vote for them, they really should be either filled in by appointment or by a normal hiring process (hell some of them really should be filled with the normal hiring process because they do have some requirements that need to be met in order to do the job).

    Funny story was my mother got elected township auditor by accident in 2000 or so for exactly this reason, on the backs of votes from dad and both sets of my grandparents who were just pitching a name out there. Maybe our neighbor too, i forget.

    My dad won a school district seat this way. He actually would have accepted it, but we moved houses literally the week after voting and he no longer resided in the district to take the position!

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    Mr KhanMr Khan Not Everyone WAHHHRegistered User regular
    Polaritie wrote: »
    Mr Khan wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    Also depending on some other factors, it's possible to run a successful write in campaign for some of the lower races. If you can get the organization down, you might just get a majority of the vote because a vast majority of voters don't bother voting. It's really an indictment against such seats being elected positions because if people don't give a shit to vote for them, they really should be either filled in by appointment or by a normal hiring process (hell some of them really should be filled with the normal hiring process because they do have some requirements that need to be met in order to do the job).

    Funny story was my mother got elected township auditor by accident in 2000 or so for exactly this reason, on the backs of votes from dad and both sets of my grandparents who were just pitching a name out there. Maybe our neighbor too, i forget.

    Did she accept?

    Yeah, but she didn't stand for it again.

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    shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Mr Khan wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    Also depending on some other factors, it's possible to run a successful write in campaign for some of the lower races. If you can get the organization down, you might just get a majority of the vote because a vast majority of voters don't bother voting. It's really an indictment against such seats being elected positions because if people don't give a shit to vote for them, they really should be either filled in by appointment or by a normal hiring process (hell some of them really should be filled with the normal hiring process because they do have some requirements that need to be met in order to do the job).

    Funny story was my mother got elected township auditor by accident in 2000 or so for exactly this reason, on the backs of votes from dad and both sets of my grandparents who were just pitching a name out there. Maybe our neighbor too, i forget.

    You elect auditors??????

    :?

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    mrondeaumrondeau Montréal, CanadaRegistered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Mr Khan wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    Also depending on some other factors, it's possible to run a successful write in campaign for some of the lower races. If you can get the organization down, you might just get a majority of the vote because a vast majority of voters don't bother voting. It's really an indictment against such seats being elected positions because if people don't give a shit to vote for them, they really should be either filled in by appointment or by a normal hiring process (hell some of them really should be filled with the normal hiring process because they do have some requirements that need to be met in order to do the job).

    Funny story was my mother got elected township auditor by accident in 2000 or so for exactly this reason, on the backs of votes from dad and both sets of my grandparents who were just pitching a name out there. Maybe our neighbor too, i forget.

    You elect auditors??????

    :?

    They elect everything. Think of a position that really, really should not be elected, and its an elected position somewhere in the 'States.

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    DiplominatorDiplominator Hardcore Porg Registered User regular
    mrondeau wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Mr Khan wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    Also depending on some other factors, it's possible to run a successful write in campaign for some of the lower races. If you can get the organization down, you might just get a majority of the vote because a vast majority of voters don't bother voting. It's really an indictment against such seats being elected positions because if people don't give a shit to vote for them, they really should be either filled in by appointment or by a normal hiring process (hell some of them really should be filled with the normal hiring process because they do have some requirements that need to be met in order to do the job).

    Funny story was my mother got elected township auditor by accident in 2000 or so for exactly this reason, on the backs of votes from dad and both sets of my grandparents who were just pitching a name out there. Maybe our neighbor too, i forget.

    You elect auditors??????

    :?

    They elect everything. Think of a position that really, really should not be elected, and its an elected position somewhere in the 'States.
    You're not wrong in spirit, but I think everyone will be relieved to know that a few minutes with Google did not reveal any references to elections for air traffic controllers.

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    .

    Utah 4th is Jim Matheson's old seat, won by 4% two years ago by Mia Love. The D candidate is the same (son of a Utah Congressman, LDS), but the hope is likely on anti-Trump sentiment.

    CA-25 is R+3. In 2014 the jungle primary resulted in 2 GOP candidates. It went to Obama by 1% in 08 and Romney by 2% in 2012 so its a classic swing district. There was a weird "activists vs establishment" thing for this district where a weak candidate was being pushed by local activists (close to the candidate Lou Vince) but the party wanted Brian Caforio who ended up winning the primary 2-1 (for second place and thus participation in the general).

    NY-1 is R+2 and its Rep Lee Zeldin backed Trump publicly. Obama won it twice but it was a R pickup last time around. Its on Long Island. Anna Throne-Holst has run several schools as well as being in local government and seems competent, checks the liberal Dem boxes and has strong institutional support ahead of the primary. Dave Calone seems fine but is more moderate.





    Jolly was running for Senate before Rubio came back in

    http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings

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    MillMill Registered User regular
    Yeah, I'm not holding on taking Congress back this year. Don't get me wrong, I'd love for it to happen, but we have quite a bit working against that. No thanks, to idiots within the democratic party that let the GOP win seats they would have likely lost if the democrats properly contested them. Also no thanks to morons that wanted their stupid ass unicorn and made it easier for terrible politicians to win seats because they effectively reduce the threshold vote the teapers had to hit. Worse this was done during redistricting, so the current GOP being full of undemocratic and corrupt assholes, had zero issue using gerrymandering to further rig the system, followed by voter disenfranchisement schemes. Part of me hopes, that when we get the next SCOTUS to replace Scalia, that we get a case where gerrymandering gets shank, along with most of the bullshit voter disenfranchisement schemes that came about since 2010.

    Anyways, I think we have a good shot at seeing the Senate change hands again. Also even though I don't think we'll get the house or many of the state legislatures. I do think we could cut the margins significantly, which means either some of the shit does to executive veto because the GOP legislatures can no longer override vetoes by their governors or those GOP controlled legislatures fail to pass anything because they no longer have the seats to overcome disagreements within the GOP.

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    PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    edited June 2016
    Yeah, I don't have high hopes for flipping the House, but the Senate is easily in reach due to the balance of seats up for grabs. That said, neither of MN's seats are up this year so...

    Edit: And in the way this year is really lopsided in GOP seats being up? Yeah... 2018 is 3:1 democrats (counting the 2 independents) up. So... get a good majority guys?

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
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    joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »

    They agree on quite a lot of things

    Which makes me think Teachout has this in the bag; there isn't a big enough reason for the polls to shift in Yandik's favor

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    It's official, Rubio's back in it for his seat:



    I have to think this will blow up in his face.

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    joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    Didn't he say very publicly that he didn't care about being in the Senate except as a stepping stone to the Presidency? Or something similar?

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    Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    His record, or lack thereof, suggests the first part at least...

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