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The 2016 Downticket Elections Thread for People Who Are Capable of On-Topic Civility

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    Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Alexandria, VARegistered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    Gerrymandering is a nice excuse but it can only go so far. Republicans won the Congressionalvote by 6% 2 years ago, by 1.2 % 4 years ago and by 6% 6 years ago. Ultimately that's why the House is Republican controlled. And it can't honestly be blamed on the DNC/DCCC because they leave fewer uncontested seats than Republicans most years and it's not like the national Republican party outclasses anyone in pure competence.

    The core problem is Democratic Presidential voters don't turn out in midterms and are more likely to split their tickets, possibly for a veneer of independence. It's the central factor that all US politics hinges on in the current party system

    2014 and 2010, yeah, but 2012 was the other way around, 48.8 D to 47.6 R. The party with fewer votes still won a comfortable majority.

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    No-QuarterNo-Quarter Nothing To Fear But Fear ItselfRegistered User regular
    Roz wrote: »
    Weren't the numbers something like we'd have to win 95%+ of the competitive districts and even then have to make a few uncompetitive ones actually winnable?

    I thought it was virtually mathematically impossible for us to regain the house unless it was a massive wave year with general democrat being 10%+ points ahead?

    Yeah and we're approaching that point.

    Wait.

    Seriously? Is that simply due to Trump?

    If that's true that fills me with glee (it's been a rough last few days) but at the same time.... Jesus Christ GOP, how are you so bad at this?

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    lonelyahavalonelyahava Call me Ahava ~~She/Her~~ Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    @joshofalltrades
    Could you put a link to vote from abroad in the op? (Link is in my sig)

    Resources for getting absentee ballots for all your election needs. You don't need to be living abroad, just not be in your district/the country for the election.

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    joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    edited July 2016
    joshofalltrades
    Could you put a link to vote from abroad in the op? (Link is in my sig)

    Resources for getting absentee ballots for all your election needs. You don't need to be living abroad, just not be in your district/the country for the election.

    Sure! It'll have to be in the morning, as I'm currently in my bed and mobile (and therefore can't see sigs) and screw getting up right this second.

    If I forget, it's okay to pester me about it.

    joshofalltrades on
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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    edited July 2016
    This is unexpected
    Democrat Baron Hill is dropping out of the Indiana Senate race and will be replaced as the Democratic nominee by former Sen. Evan Bayh, upending the race in a state Republicans expected to hold easily this fall.

    Bayh, who is also a former governor of Indiana, still has approximately $9.3 million in a federal campaign account that has sat nearly dormant since he left the Senate in 2010. GOP Sen. Dan Coats won the seat that year but is retiring this fall.

    Hill, a former House member, was preparing to face GOP Rep. Todd Young in the general election.

    Hill’s campaign manager, Brad Howard, told POLITICO on the phone that Hill is leaving the race and Bayh is replacing him, but said afterwards he meant to be talking to someone who is not a member of the press.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/evan-bayh-readying-indiana-senate-comeback-run-225360#ixzz4E78Ikc6I
    Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook


    Baron Hill was a fairly credible contender but Bayh held the seat from 1998-2010, was Governor from 88-96 (and was SoS before that), is the son of Senator Birch Bayh (3 term IN Senator) and has $9 million cash on hand.

    PantsB on
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    iTunesIsEviliTunesIsEvil Cornfield? Cornfield.Registered User regular
    On one hand: man, screw Bayh. He quit in 2010 because things had gotten too partisan and there were too many special interests ... and then he went and got a gig on Fox News and is now a lobbyist.

    On the other: I'll happily vote for him to save IN from electing Todd Let's-Make-Getting-Free-School-Lunches-More-Difficult Young to the US Senate.

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    joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    I'm not ever going to object to the idea of improving on a 1% chance to take a seat back from the 'Pubs

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    On one hand: man, screw Bayh. He quit in 2010 because things had gotten too partisan and there were too many special interests ... and then he went and got a gig on Fox News and is now a lobbyist.

    On the other: I'll happily vote for him to save IN from electing Todd Let's-Make-Getting-Free-School-Lunches-More-Difficult Young to the US Senate.

    Yup Bayh is a bit of an asshole, but that makes him (100%-a bit) better than the alternative. And realistically its not often you'll get someone better than a moderate barring a terrible GOP candidate who is primarily associated with ridiculous and offensive ideas about rape.

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    iTunesIsEviliTunesIsEvil Cornfield? Cornfield.Registered User regular
    Oh, I'm not either. I'm just a little salty about the type of Dem (bluest of blue dogs) we manage to produce in IN; especially for the national stage.

    Donnelly's the same kind of deal, but I'm 1000x happier that he's in that seat in the Senate and not Richard Mourdock (or Sen. Whoever (R-IN)).

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    lonelyahavalonelyahava Call me Ahava ~~She/Her~~ Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    hmmm

    now that is interesting.

    I'm picturing Hillary or Bill going to Bayh's offices and being all, "You're running"
    'but, my job..."
    "You're running."

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    PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Bayh is pretty garbo though, I mean obviously better than nothing, but he's not a huge progressive pick up. He'll be a manchin type if elected.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

    pleasepaypreacher.net
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    It's Indiana, any vote to confirm a SCOTUS justice is a win.

    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    MillMill Registered User regular
    It's not just another vote for a potential Clinton nomination. It's also a vote for a democratic majority, which means no bullshit rightwing agenda. Also means another screw to put on a possible GOP run house, if they throw another shitty tantrum and shut the government down again.

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    DrakeonDrakeon Registered User regular
    Beggars can't be choosers for IN senate candidates. I love the news of Bayh jumping in, regardless of his Blue Dog status.

    PSN: Drakieon XBL: Drakieon Steam: TheDrakeon
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    OptimusZedOptimusZed Registered User regular
    edited July 2016
    Another warm body voting for Majority Leader is about all we can hope for out of Indiana.

    It sucks, I know. Just be thankful that a democrat is even a possibility. There are plenty of places it isn't right now.

    OptimusZed on
    We're reading Rifts. You should too. You know you want to. Now With Ninjas!

    They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
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    override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    edited July 2016
    Apportionment. Section 3. [As amended Nov. 1910, Nov. 1962 and Nov. 1982] At its first session after each enumeration made by the authority of the United States, the legislature shall apportion and district anew the members of the senate and assembly, according to the number of inhabitants.

    That's kind of an explicit power of the state legislature.

    yeah I would tend to agree, but the question isn't whether its the legislatures wheelhouse, but if they went too far
    Plaintiffs seek both a declaratory judgment that the Wisconsin State Assembly
    district plan adopted in 2012 by Wisconsin Act 43 (the “Current Plan”) violates the First and
    Fourteenth Amendments of the United States Constitution and an order permanently enjoining
    the implementation of the Current Plan in the 2016 election. As explained in greater detail
    below, the Current Plan is, by any measure, one of the worst partisan gerrymanders in modern
    American history.

    The court has allowed the case to go forward

    It'd be great if it goes our way, because right now Democrats need about 57% of the vote in Wisconsin to win the assembly

    but I dont know enough law to know if they really have a chance, on the face of it it seems they should?

    I mean if Wisconsin's gerrymandering is ruled acceptable, expect every red state to be permanently locked in as red in 2020, because you cannot get any worse than Wisconsin. Even the defendants admit the partisan reasoning, and the Washington Post even concedes it's broken in favor of Republicans

    override367 on
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    wazillawazilla Having a late dinner Registered User regular
    edited July 2016
    OptimusZed wrote: »
    Another warm body voting for Majority Leader is about all we can hope for out of Indiana.

    It sucks, I know. Just be thankful that a democrat is even a possibility. There are plenty of places it isn't right now.

    Additionally, it helps to keep in mind that, at least for the foreseeable future, this is what the 50 state strategy looks like.

    wazilla on
    Psn:wazukki
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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    edited July 2016
    It's Indiana, any vote to confirm a SCOTUS justice is a win.

    Yup its why I'll probably bite the bullet and send some money on to Conner Eldridge even though he's a bit Blue Dogish
    edit
    wazilla wrote: »
    OptimusZed wrote: »
    Another warm body voting for Majority Leader is about all we can hope for out of Indiana.

    It sucks, I know. Just be thankful that a democrat is even a possibility. There are plenty of places it isn't right now.

    Additionally, it helps to keep in mind that, at least for the foreseeable future, this is what the 50 state strategy looks like.

    Exactly. A 50 state strategy means a Big Tent which means Blue Dogs.

    PantsB on
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    White supremacist Steve Scallise is not racist enough, so David Duke is going to run for Congress against him. Louisiana!

    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Swung by /r/sandersforpresident to see how they're taking it.

    I'm both pleased and displeased. A lot of "I'm never going to vote for Hillary, Jill Stein all the way!" but in the same breath saying that they're basically done with POTUS but going to pour all the same energy and time into down-ticket races to try to get progressives in Congress. Which is a whole lot more constructive than I expected, honestly.

    They've formed another subreddit community focused around that.

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    edited July 2016
    .
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Swung by /r/sandersforpresident to see how they're taking it.

    I'm both pleased and displeased. A lot of "I'm never going to vote for Hillary, Jill Stein all the way!" but in the same breath saying that they're basically done with POTUS but going to pour all the same energy and time into down-ticket races to try to get progressives in Congress. Which is a whole lot more constructive than I expected, honestly.

    They've formed another subreddit community focused around that.

    Every post on the other subreddit is still just anti Hillary or pro Jill Stein though.

    PantsB on
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    Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    because that's how you get progressives in Congress.
    obviously.

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    Solomaxwell6Solomaxwell6 Registered User regular
    because that's how you get progressives in Congress.
    obviously.

    Honestly, if it's played smartly, the young crowd of Sanders supporters could be an absolutely amazing force for Congressional races. Sanders built a massive fucking fundraising and volunteering machine. Divide that up between a handful of House races, maybe a senate seat or two, and they could make a real difference.

    There are a few things I'm concerned about. Picking fights they can't win (a few people they've supported in the primaries were 20-somethings with literally no political experience). Falling in love with primary candidates and then refusing to compromise for a more moderate Dem when/if that candidate loses. Most importantly: having their movement totally fall apart once it's no longer about one specific candidate at the top of the ticket.

    But I'm not really sad to see them trying to convert their energy into something useful.

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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    XBL: Nox Aeternum / PSN: NoxAeternum / NN:NoxAeternum / Steam: noxaeternum
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    kaidkaid Registered User regular
    Mill wrote: »
    It's not just another vote for a potential Clinton nomination. It's also a vote for a democratic majority, which means no bullshit rightwing agenda. Also means another screw to put on a possible GOP run house, if they throw another shitty tantrum and shut the government down again.

    Also whoever gets the next presidency has at least 1 maybe 2 or 3 supreme court picks likely in their term so you very much want to swing at least the senate enough where the dems at least have a majority of not a filibuster proof one.

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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular

    That's one hell of a barfight if you lose your legs in it

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular


    rLsgfnq.jpg
    Maine 2nd district, one of the few in NE that is held by a Republican. Internal polling says it's tied

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    lonelyahavalonelyahava Call me Ahava ~~She/Her~~ Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    edited July 2016
    Just got me DE absentee ballot for the statewide Primary.

    I log i to a secure website, provide my ull name and voucher number, fill out a pdf, and email or snail mail t back.

    super easy.

    guess i need to do my research now

    edit: And in god old Delaware tradition, our congressman now wants to be governor. There's 5 democrats and 1 libretarian running for the House, but only 2 Democrats have any info online. And since we're electing a Governor, We're also electing our Lt Gov. Where there's like 7 democrats running. I'm pleased with all the options. They just need to give me more info on themselves.

    lonelyahava on
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    NRSC and Koch Brothers pull out (well theoretically until October in the NRSC's case, but I bet that gets extended) of the Johnson/Feingold race, which has top of the ticket implications.

    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    edited July 2016
    feingold is up 5 to 13 depending on the poll you look at

    great im glad we're getting the seat back

    but fuck you Feingold for refusing to run for governor, you could have destroyed scott walker

    override367 on
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    I ZimbraI Zimbra Worst song, played on ugliest guitar Registered User regular
    NRSC and Koch Brothers pull out (well theoretically until October in the NRSC's case, but I bet that gets extended) of the Johnson/Feingold race, which has top of the ticket implications.

    Anecdotally, the overall level of political ads in Wisconsin is way lower than in previous elections. I've seen a few Johnson/Feingold ads and a few generic anti-Hilary PAC ads, but that's about it.

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    joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    It looks like Teachout's race is expected to be very close. Both candidates are receiving funds and attention from their respective parties. It's gonna be a nail-biter.

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    A DSCC poll in Indiana is giving Bayh a 21 point lead
    This strong regard for his performance translates into a strong lead over Republican Congressman Todd Young in the initial trial heat: 54% Bayh, 33% Young, 13% Undecided. While Bayh’s support stems in some degree from his name recognition advantage (still an impressive 82% despite not having run a campaign in more than a decade compared to 54% for Young), Bayh maintains a strong double-digit lead among voters who know BOTH candidates: 55% Bayh, 39% Young.

    Interestingly, the undecided vote in the Senate race appears up for grabs to BOTH candidates, including Evan Bayh. For example, President Obama’s job approval is 45%-44% among undecided voters, Hillary Clinton trails Donald Trump by just 5%, and Bayh only has 54% name recognition, indicating he has a chance to gain their support once he campaigns.

    IN-Sen has shifted from likely R to tossup/lean D by most of the rating services

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    JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Wow. That's less than two weeks in.

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    PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    feingold is up 5 to 13 depending on the poll you look at

    great im glad we're getting the seat back

    but fuck you Feingold for refusing to run for governor, you could have destroyed scott walker

    Senate is important too.

    Not that I blame you for wanting him gone.

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    lonelyahavalonelyahava Call me Ahava ~~She/Her~~ Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    Polaritie wrote: »
    feingold is up 5 to 13 depending on the poll you look at

    great im glad we're getting the seat back

    but fuck you Feingold for refusing to run for governor, you could have destroyed scott walker

    Senate is important too.

    Not that I blame you for wanting him gone.

    I think the anger is more that Feingold left the Senate, then Walker did his "screw all the unions everywhere:" thing, then the recall happened. And Feingold didn't run in the recall. And then also didn't run when Walker was up for reelection. And Feingold is only just now deciding to get back in, when he could have been in much earlier and saved his constituents a bit of pain.

    But I could be misremembering the sequence of events

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    MillMill Registered User regular
    I'm wondering how well democrats will do this November with the dumpster fire at the top of the GOP ticket. Plus, it looks like the party at the national level is finally starting to implode. I think we have a good shot at seeing the Democrats take the Senate. Would be awesome if they got the House and a number of state legislatures because it would open the door to dismantling a ton of the vile shit the current GOP has put in place. Don't think we'll see people in offices to obliterate CU, but maybe it'll be feasible to gut all the shitty ass voter disenfranchisement schemes with a federal law and possible nuke partisan gerrymandering (both of which would probably go a long way to keeping things reasonable for a very long time).

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    So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    edited July 2016
    Mill wrote: »
    I'm wondering how well democrats will do this November with the dumpster fire at the top of the GOP ticket. Plus, it looks like the party at the national level is finally starting to implode. I think we have a good shot at seeing the Democrats take the Senate. Would be awesome if they got the House and a number of state legislatures because it would open the door to dismantling a ton of the vile shit the current GOP has put in place. Don't think we'll see people in offices to obliterate CU, but maybe it'll be feasible to gut all the shitty ass voter disenfranchisement schemes with a federal law and possible nuke partisan gerrymandering (both of which would probably go a long way to keeping things reasonable for a very long time).

    The Trump-tying has already begun. The R candidates have to support the nominee even if they disagree with him on like, everything. Tons of the country hates the nominee. This is an opportunity the Dems can't fuck up.



    Patty Judge got Obama's official endorsement yesterday I think. She's already yoking Grassley hard to Trump (and to King's racism). Plz plz plz let this happen Iowa.

    So It Goes on
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    So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/287298-grassley-challenger-has-faced-uphill-battles-before
    So far, polls show that Judge is putting up a credible fight. A recent Loras College poll found the race to be in a statistical tie, with Grassley, leading by only 1 point, up 46 percent to 45 percent. Other recent surveys have also found Judge within striking distance.

    DNC plz dump money into this race.

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    HefflingHeffling No Pic EverRegistered User regular
    So It Goes wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    I'm wondering how well democrats will do this November with the dumpster fire at the top of the GOP ticket. Plus, it looks like the party at the national level is finally starting to implode. I think we have a good shot at seeing the Democrats take the Senate. Would be awesome if they got the House and a number of state legislatures because it would open the door to dismantling a ton of the vile shit the current GOP has put in place. Don't think we'll see people in offices to obliterate CU, but maybe it'll be feasible to gut all the shitty ass voter disenfranchisement schemes with a federal law and possible nuke partisan gerrymandering (both of which would probably go a long way to keeping things reasonable for a very long time).

    The Trump-tying has already begun. The R candidates have to support the nominee even if they disagree with him on like, everything. Tons of the country hates the nominee. This is an opportunity the Dems can't fuck up.

    Patty Judge got Obama's official endorsement yesterday I think. She's already yoking Grassley hard to Trump (and to King's racism). Plz plz plz let this happen Iowa.

    The same thing was said in 2012 and 2014, yet the Dem's lost control of the House and Senate.

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