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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] Brexitstential Crisis

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    PriestPriest Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    Wraith260 wrote: »
    Wraith260 wrote: »
    tomorrows front pages,

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-36636888

    the quote from Boris on the front of The Daily Telegraph is something... special, shall we say.
    I believe that this climate of apprehension is understandable, given what people were told during the campaign, but based on a profound misunderstanding about what has really taken place.

    told by whom Boris? who's bullshit was it exactly that led to this 'profound misunderstand'? eh? you complete and utter wanker!


    Wait, is Boris saying that the economic crisis he's helped create is just because the Remain campaign were "scaremongering" before the result and because people don't understand how great the Leave result is? Am I reading that right?

    that certainly seems to be what he's implying, yes. that for those that haven't clicked the link the quote ends "At home and abroad, the negative consequences are being wildly overdone, and the upside is being ignored". so pretty much literally "look, its just the currency collapsing. no big deal. look on the bright side." i can't help but imagining that there's some whistling in there too.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/
    The stock market is way above its level of last autumn; the pound remains higher than it was in 2013 and 2014.

    The economy is in good hands. Most sensible people can see that Bank of England governor Mark Carney has done a superb job – and now that the referendum is over, he will be able to continue his work without being in the political firing-line. Thanks in large part to the reforms put in place by David Cameron and George Osborne, the fundamentals of the UK economy are outstandingly strong – a dynamic and outward-looking economy with an ever-improving skills base, and with a big lead in some of the key growth sectors of the 21st century.
    That worked so well for McCain in 2008.

    Ya, really doesn't matter how right you are, but no one cares that the brick walls will be standing after the rest of your house burns down.

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    V1mV1m Registered User regular

    Yeah this is pretty much the brexit campaign in a nutshell.

    I mean everyone expect politicians to promise more than they'll be able to deliver during a campaign to get votes, we expect that, and a certain amount of cynicism in this respect is generally discounted from peoples expectations, but I've genuinely never seen such a quick public walkback of the core campaign issues. Extra NHS spending was gone before 8AM on thursday, freedom of movement was liberated by Friday, and now they don't want to actually invoke article 50.

    Taking such obvious bait indeed. 17 million people just got trolled to fuck.

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    Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    From last thread:
    Priest wrote: »
    Bad-Beat wrote: »
    My prediction:

    Article 50 is invoked, the lead negotiator for Britain is given a mandate by the next PM to get back all the agreements we had in the EU, essentially being an EU member in everything but name, and hope the people don't notice/care. The negotiation team for the EU say "fuck that! You left, get rekt" and we end up fuckitty-do-dah-ed.

    Making the UK effectively the Puerto Rico of the EU - same laws, no voice.

    Taxation without representation?
    Oh, the irony.

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    AntoshkaAntoshka Miauen Oil Change LazarusRegistered User regular
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/26/city-of-london-expecting-further-post-brexit-losses-when-trade-reopens

    So... that seems like a complete disaster, and should surely be juxtaposed against whatever the hell story Farage / BoJo are trying to peddle, right?

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    BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    I seriously hope Osborne doesn't resign in his morning speech, the markets would implode even harder than they were already going to.

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    ZythonZython Registered User regular
    I think the most amazing thing I've seen from the leave crowd is how the UK is totally going to call the shots in negotiations with the EU, and that they will get all of the benefits of membership without membership. It's just so...delusional.

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    danxdanx Registered User regular
    edited June 2016
    Rchanen wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Ugh, reading how Brexit is a boon for Putin, and I can't argue with that sentiment.

    Iran and Russia are the only countries I have heard being happy about the result and for obvious reasons.

    I like Iran's mention of throwing off American dominance.

    Throwing off American dominance by running away from Europe, being baited by Trump-esque campaign arguments and emboldening the right. It's Iran though. Anything which weakens the west benefits them and getting a dig at the US is on script, logic be damned.

    I think we are moving closer to the US politically after this. Our press has always been as toxic as stuff like Fox News anyway, they just got a major win. Our government clearly gives no fucks about individual rights or privacy and workers rights will be under threat if the conservatives can have their way. Both of those things are much more aligned with US politics and values than European ones. That won't change with either of the current candidates in the white house.

    danx on
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    Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie Registered User regular
    Antoshka wrote: »
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/26/city-of-london-expecting-further-post-brexit-losses-when-trade-reopens

    So... that seems like a complete disaster, and should surely be juxtaposed against whatever the hell story Farage / BoJo are trying to peddle, right?

    Britain, I won't lie. I much preferred the surge in business you gave us back in 2012 when London hosted the Olympics and everyone loved you and you loved everyone and millions came to visit you and a whole bunch of them hopped over here too so they could play golf and drink Guinness.

    Can we go back to that?

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    V1mV1m Registered User regular
    My one comfort is that the shareholder class is taking a beating on this, and will be exerting a huge and increasing amount of pressure to find some way out of this clusterfuck, however politically embarrassing it might be in the short term.

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    LiiyaLiiya Registered User regular
    V1m wrote: »
    My one comfort is that the shareholder class is taking a beating on this, and will be exerting a huge and increasing amount of pressure to find some way out of this clusterfuck, however politically embarrassing it might be in the short term.

    Ahh that warms my cold dead heart.

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    danxdanx Registered User regular
    edited June 2016
    Zython wrote: »
    I think the most amazing thing I've seen from the leave crowd is how the UK is totally going to call the shots in negotiations with the EU, and that they will get all of the benefits of membership without membership. It's just so...delusional.

    I hope the EU stands it's ground, I really do. British politics is a mess right now. The last thing we need is the EU rolling over. That would allow almost all the lies they told to be written off and legitimise lying in political campaigns in the UK and perhaps Europe. The leave campign should not be able to get away with lying to the public.

    danx on
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    Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie Registered User regular
    danx wrote: »
    Zython wrote: »
    I think the most amazing thing I've seen from the leave crowd is how the UK is totally going to call the shots in negotiations with the EU, and that they will get all of the benefits of membership without membership. It's just so...delusional.

    I hope the EU stands it's ground, I really do. British politics is a mess right now. The last thing we need is the EU rolling over. That would allow almost all the lies they told to be written off and legitimise lying in political campaigns in the UK and perhaps Europe.

    Any political leader in the EU with a far right party to deal with will be 100% invested in standing their ground against the UK. The alternative is to allow a wave of racism to sweep fascist parties to power across Europe.

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    GvzbgulGvzbgul Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    Ugh, reading how Brexit is a boon for Putin, and I can't argue with that sentiment.

    Iran and Russia are the only countries I have heard being happy about the result and for obvious reasons.
    ISIS are huge fans of it too.

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    V1mV1m Registered User regular
    Liiya wrote: »
    V1m wrote: »
    My one comfort is that the shareholder class is taking a beating on this, and will be exerting a huge and increasing amount of pressure to find some way out of this clusterfuck, however politically embarrassing it might be in the short term.

    Ahh that warms my cold dead heart.

    Actually, my other comfort is that the Leave campaign has chucked Nigel Farage in the bin.

    Farage achieving his life's work and getting a brexit vote, then realising that he's been lied to and will get nothing. It is beyond delicious.

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    LostNinjaLostNinja Registered User regular
    Sorry for my ignorance here, but until the last few days I paid hardly any attention to UK politics. Are all of the politicians that are resigning the ones who were against leaving and are resigning for failing, or are they pro brexit, and resigning because they led their country to a disastrous decision?

    I'm really just very confused as to why everyone is resigning (and not just because in America our politicians double down after making horrible decisions). I would think the people who were against it would want to stick around and try their best to overturn the decision and get their country through this.

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    KiplingKipling Registered User regular
    danx wrote: »
    Zython wrote: »
    I think the most amazing thing I've seen from the leave crowd is how the UK is totally going to call the shots in negotiations with the EU, and that they will get all of the benefits of membership without membership. It's just so...delusional.

    I hope the EU stands it's ground, I really do. British politics is a mess right now. The last thing we need is the EU rolling over. That would allow almost all the lies they told to be written off and legitimise lying in political campaigns in the UK and perhaps Europe.

    Any political leader in the EU with a far right party to deal with will be 100% invested in standing their ground against the UK. The alternative is to allow a wave of racism to sweep fascist parties to power across Europe.

    Spain seems to have gone OK in their election today. OK being pretty much the same as last time, but with the two old major parties having just enough to do a grand coalition.

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    BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    edited June 2016
    LostNinja wrote: »
    Sorry for my ignorance here, but until the last few days I paid hardly any attention to UK politics. Are all of the politicians that are resigning the ones who were against leaving and are resigning for failing, or are they pro brexit, and resigning because they led their country to a disastrous decision?

    I'm really just very confused as to why everyone is resigning (and not just because in America our politicians double down after making horrible decisions). I would think the people who were against it would want to stick around and try their best to overturn the decision and get their country through this.

    So there are different reasons for why different politicians are resigning.

    Our Conservative Prime Minister, David Cameron, was for Remain and has resigned because "he didn't want to deal with the hard shit". It's also looking likely that he wanted to leave the probably very negative consequences of actually leaving the EU for his successor to handle, making the role of PM a poison chalice - which is an interesting political move, since the Leave campaign was headed up by a number of politicians vying for the role.

    We've also had a number of politicians from the opposition party, Labour, resign from their positions. In this case, it's only indirectly related to the Brexit vote. Labour's current leader is Jeremy Corbyn, who's seen as a relatively radical left winger and has generally been a bit ineffective at pretty much everything. In particular, Labour was meant to be very strongly for Remain, but Corbyn was "only 7/10 in support" and there seem to be indications that he actively hindered the Remain campaign. One of his chief rivals within Labour, Hilary Benn, began making noises about protest resignations if Corbyn ignored a vote of no confidence in him - so Corbyn fired Benn. At this point, eleven other Labour MPs have now resigned from the shadow cabinet in protest.

    We haven't had any pro-Leave politicians resign. Yet.

    Burnage on
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    MancingtomMancingtom Registered User regular
    How would Cameron's exit work? Would the Conservatives nominate someone to take his place, or would there be some kind of special election?

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    hippofanthippofant ティンク Registered User regular
    edited June 2016
    Mancingtom wrote: »
    How would Cameron's exit work? Would the Conservatives nominate someone to take his place, or would there be some kind of special election?

    The Prime Minister is technically elected by Parliament, so Parliament has to decide on his successor. Normally, that'd the Conservative Party again, since they have a majority in the Parliament, but ... uh... things are pretty weird right now, since the Brexit issue has split the two major parties pretty much right down the middle (or maybe more like 1/3:2/3s?).


    Also, to be somewhat charitable to Cameron, resigning is not strictly a petty move on his part. He might be doing it out of pettiness, mind you, but it makes some sense if you've staked your political position on Remaining, then when you lose the referendum, you no longer have the confidence of the people. The alternative is what, exactly? The Leave campaign apparently has no plan, so then whatever he implements, the Leave voters will be unhappy with, since he's a Remainer and he's secretly sabotaging things or whatever. He basically had to resign, one way or another. He just could have done it with a bit more grace, imo, like starting the process and staying on until his successor was found rather than just taking his ball and going home.

    It'd be one thing if the Leavers had a real plan. Then Cameron could at least look at the plan and check things off while waiting for someone to take over. But without any plan from the people who "won" the referendum, he should probably not, in the spirit of democracy, be the one leading the process.

    hippofant on
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    Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie Registered User regular
    Kipling wrote: »
    danx wrote: »
    Zython wrote: »
    I think the most amazing thing I've seen from the leave crowd is how the UK is totally going to call the shots in negotiations with the EU, and that they will get all of the benefits of membership without membership. It's just so...delusional.

    I hope the EU stands it's ground, I really do. British politics is a mess right now. The last thing we need is the EU rolling over. That would allow almost all the lies they told to be written off and legitimise lying in political campaigns in the UK and perhaps Europe.

    Any political leader in the EU with a far right party to deal with will be 100% invested in standing their ground against the UK. The alternative is to allow a wave of racism to sweep fascist parties to power across Europe.

    Spain seems to have gone OK in their election today. OK being pretty much the same as last time, but with the two old major parties having just enough to do a grand coalition.

    I saw that! It was really good to see. It seems like the countries most troubled by far right parties at the moment are France, The Netherlands and Poland.

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    ronyaronya Arrrrrf. the ivory tower's basementRegistered User regular
    in a parliamentary system it is normal for governments that are felt to have lost a mandate to resign

    as scheck pointed out, resigning is also the best move he could make because he has no real mandate amongst his parliamentary majority to negotiate anything and Boris would be constantly bashing him. that's not good for stability

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    ShimshaiShimshai Flush with Success! Isle of EmeraldRegistered User regular
    Wraith260 wrote: »
    Wraith260 wrote: »
    tomorrows front pages,

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-36636888

    the quote from Boris on the front of The Daily Telegraph is something... special, shall we say.
    I believe that this climate of apprehension is understandable, given what people were told during the campaign, but based on a profound misunderstanding about what has really taken place.

    told by whom Boris? who's bullshit was it exactly that led to this 'profound misunderstand'? eh? you complete and utter wanker!


    Wait, is Boris saying that the economic crisis he's helped create is just because the Remain campaign were "scaremongering" before the result and because people don't understand how great the Leave result is? Am I reading that right?

    that certainly seems to be what he's implying, yes. that for those that haven't clicked the link the quote ends "At home and abroad, the negative consequences are being wildly overdone, and the upside is being ignored". so pretty much literally "look, its just the currency collapsing. no big deal. look on the bright side." i can't help but imagining that there's some whistling in there too.

    What even is the upside that they're trying to put forward in all of this?

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    hippofanthippofant ティンク Registered User regular
    edited June 2016
    Shimshai wrote: »
    Wraith260 wrote: »
    Wraith260 wrote: »
    tomorrows front pages,

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-36636888

    the quote from Boris on the front of The Daily Telegraph is something... special, shall we say.
    I believe that this climate of apprehension is understandable, given what people were told during the campaign, but based on a profound misunderstanding about what has really taken place.

    told by whom Boris? who's bullshit was it exactly that led to this 'profound misunderstand'? eh? you complete and utter wanker!


    Wait, is Boris saying that the economic crisis he's helped create is just because the Remain campaign were "scaremongering" before the result and because people don't understand how great the Leave result is? Am I reading that right?

    that certainly seems to be what he's implying, yes. that for those that haven't clicked the link the quote ends "At home and abroad, the negative consequences are being wildly overdone, and the upside is being ignored". so pretty much literally "look, its just the currency collapsing. no big deal. look on the bright side." i can't help but imagining that there's some whistling in there too.

    What even is the upside that they're trying to put forward in all of this?

    It seems to me that the new slogan is that Britain is going to make its own decisions now. It might be the EXACT SAME decisions that Britain-in-EU would make, or it might be EVEN WORSE decisions, but at least it'll be Britain making them! :confused:

    hippofant on
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    ShimshaiShimshai Flush with Success! Isle of EmeraldRegistered User regular
    It's just... it amazes me how quickly things have turned from business as usual to dumpster fire, all over a referendum that didn't need to be called. Exchange rates tanking, business exodus, and all before anything has actually changed. I've been catching up on the thread here, and the previous one for a day or two. It's worse, knowing the result and reading all of your speculation on it.

    And the knock-on effects that will result from it, and have already begun.

    It's staggering really. As an Irishman I'm conditioned to wanting things to go against England, but not like this.

    Getting your ass beat by Iceland, that's the kind of thing I can get behind.

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    PriestPriest Registered User regular
    But it was all so stunningly predictable as well, which is why I'm flabbergasted that people are surprised.

    "Oh, you mean thumbing our nose in nationalism at the largest international trade and social agreement in history will have ramifications for our economy, that the ambiguity of the situation will cause supranational organizations to flee, and that this might objectively make things *worse* than when we were in it?"

    It would be like Canada trying to leave NAFTA and not expect their economy to blip for a decade(s).

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    IncenjucarIncenjucar VChatter Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    Thing is that now nobody can trust Britain to act like an adult for at least a decade, even if they fixed this one mess.

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    mere_immortalmere_immortal So tasty!Registered User regular
    Priest wrote: »
    But it was all so stunningly predictable as well, which is why I'm flabbergasted that people are surprised.

    "Oh, you mean thumbing our nose in nationalism at the largest international trade and social agreement in history will have ramifications for our economy, that the ambiguity of the situation will cause supranational organizations to flee, and that this might objectively make things *worse* than when we were in it?"

    It would be like Canada trying to leave NAFTA and not expect their economy to blip for a decade(s).

    Which makes it all the more ridiculous we trusted this to the public, given that if you told them the above their response would be "yeah but we got our country back!"

    Ignorant nationalist twats.

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    PriestPriest Registered User regular
    I have the new motto for Brexit:

    "Worried about immigrants taking your job? Vote for Brexit, the economy will take it for you!"

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    TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    Priest wrote: »
    But it was all so stunningly predictable as well, which is why I'm flabbergasted that people are surprised.

    "Oh, you mean thumbing our nose in nationalism at the largest international trade and social agreement in history will have ramifications for our economy, that the ambiguity of the situation will cause supranational organizations to flee, and that this might objectively make things *worse* than when we were in it?"

    It would be like Canada trying to leave NAFTA and not expect their economy to blip for a decade(s).

    Which makes it all the more ridiculous we trusted this to the public, given that if you told them the above their response would be "yeah but we got our country back!"

    Ignorant nationalist twats.
    Being willing to take the economic hit just to restrict the free movement of labor is many things, but ignorant is not one of them. I mean, you can say that "the innocent rural citizens got tricked by that dastardly Farage!", but: What if they were fine with all of it just to restrict inmigration and not have to deal with refugees? What then?

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    BahamutZEROBahamutZERO Registered User regular
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Priest wrote: »
    But it was all so stunningly predictable as well, which is why I'm flabbergasted that people are surprised.

    "Oh, you mean thumbing our nose in nationalism at the largest international trade and social agreement in history will have ramifications for our economy, that the ambiguity of the situation will cause supranational organizations to flee, and that this might objectively make things *worse* than when we were in it?"

    It would be like Canada trying to leave NAFTA and not expect their economy to blip for a decade(s).

    Which makes it all the more ridiculous we trusted this to the public, given that if you told them the above their response would be "yeah but we got our country back!"

    Ignorant nationalist twats.
    Being willing to take the economic hit just to restrict the free movement of labor is many things, but ignorant is not one of them. I mean, you can say that "the innocent rural citizens got tricked by that dastardly Farage!", but: What if they were fine with all of it just to restrict inmigration and not have to deal with refugees? What then?

    it's not even restricting the right immigrants, though, the refugees are not from the EU

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    AegisAegis Fear My Dance Overshot Toronto, Landed in OttawaRegistered User regular
    Incidentally, this is a very good lecture video on the UK-EU relationship and implications of a Leave vote (it was posted earlier in the month before the vote) from a constitutional/international law perspective:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USTypBKEd8Y

    He also mentions the Review of Balance of Competences that was undertaken by the UK to examine the effect of the EU on member states, which can be found here.

    We'll see how long this blog lasts
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    EvermournEvermourn Registered User regular
    Not from your neck of the woods so forgive my ignorance. Technically could the Queen veto any move by Parliament to pass leaving the EU? Claiming she has to step in for the good of the nation etc?

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    RchanenRchanen Registered User regular
    Evermourn wrote: »
    Not from your neck of the woods so forgive my ignorance. Technically could the Queen veto any move by Parliament to pass leaving the EU? Claiming she has to step in for the good of the nation etc?

    From what I understand (from the last thread) yes.

    But it would probably be the last Royal Act. The Queen has massive power. Providing she never uses it.

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    Bad-BeatBad-Beat Registered User regular
    Evermourn wrote: »
    Not from your neck of the woods so forgive my ignorance. Technically could the Queen veto any move by Parliament to pass leaving the EU? Claiming she has to step in for the good of the nation etc?

    We're already heading for several constitutional crises, might as well go the whole hog..

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    GoumindongGoumindong Registered User regular
    Rchanen wrote: »
    Evermourn wrote: »
    Not from your neck of the woods so forgive my ignorance. Technically could the Queen veto any move by Parliament to pass leaving the EU? Claiming she has to step in for the good of the nation etc?

    From what I understand (from the last thread) yes.

    But it would probably be the last Royal Act. The Queen has massive power. Providing she never uses it.

    Don't think its the last Royal Act. The Monarchy has "always" had such power insomuch as the construction of the UK conceives it. The Queen simply chooses to have a Parliament and defer power to them... on the understanding that not doing so would likely end the monarchy.

    The Queen has used her powers more often than i thought, but in general its exceedingly rare and usually with the consent of Parliament.

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    BethrynBethryn Unhappiness is Mandatory Registered User regular
    BoJo's Torygraph column has to be read to be believed (although it confirms what I suspected, which is that his horse in the race has always been sovereignty, and he was willing to go the extra distance with the other claims to get that result).

    But the end result of this is insanely damaging, and I'm not talking about the actual Brexit.

    He's just successfully totally lied to half the population, done huge political and economic damage, and nobody in a position to do anything serious about it appears to be calling him on it. Any Leave voters who voted based on the campaign he presented, and are now getting a dose of reality, are probably not going to have a shred of trust in politics for the rest of their lives.

    ...and of course, as always, Kill Hitler.
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    Jam WarriorJam Warrior Registered User regular
    After a weekend in hiding I'm expecting lots of the major figures to come out with various bombshells over the next few days. Strap in.

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    TravanTravan Registered User regular
    Another Usian here, just wanted to thank all the inhabitants of the Still-Technically United Kingdom for some of the finest Political Dysfunction Theater since Trump clinched the GOP primary.

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    Alistair HuttonAlistair Hutton Dr EdinburghRegistered User regular
    BoJo has come out in favour of Nigel Farage for Prime Minister.

    Wait, I mean staying in the free market and unlimited immigration

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    BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    Bethryn wrote: »
    BoJo's Torygraph column has to be read to be believed (although it confirms what I suspected, which is that his horse in the race has always been sovereignty, and he was willing to go the extra distance with the other claims to get that result).

    But the end result of this is insanely damaging, and I'm not talking about the actual Brexit.

    He's just successfully totally lied to half the population, done huge political and economic damage, and nobody in a position to do anything serious about it appears to be calling him on it. Any Leave voters who voted based on the campaign he presented, and are now getting a dose of reality, are probably not going to have a shred of trust in politics for the rest of their lives.

    The more I think about it, the more I think that the Conservatives are going to be an absolutely toxic party in future elections. If nothing else I can't imagine that millennials will forget that they were the party which dragged them into this against 70% of their wishes.

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