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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] Brexitstential Crisis

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    Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie Registered User regular
    Is there any reason why Boris Johnson and George Osborne aren't there or am I just missing them? Because after this referendum it seems super weird for the faces of the "winning" side not to turn up to the debate on what happens next.

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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    And as long as they don't try shenanigans to say "A50 suckas", I'm fine with that stance.

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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Sleep wrote: »
    P10 wrote: »
    Sleep wrote: »
    Casual wrote: »
    Casual wrote: »
    Casual wrote: »
    altid wrote: »
    Cameron seemed to deny that article 50 requires a parliamentary vote.

    Also seemed to say it's not being applied immediately, which is good? The consensus here seems to be the longer it goes without being activated the less likely it is to happen at all.

    So right now there seem to be three legal scenarios that possibly clash

    - The lawyer who argued parliament need to vote on A50
    - Cameron's assertion that the PM alone can decide, he's just not going to
    - The EU assertion that if he mentions the referendum at this meeting that invokes A50

    It's the latter two that are uncomfortably synergistic

    I dunno it seems suuuuper weird for the EU to be all "YOU SAID ARTICLE 50 IN THE COMMONS, IT STARTS NOW NO TAKES BACKSIES".

    As much as they might want to that's some pretty weak sauce.

    Not in the Commons, at this EU meeting that's happening tomorrow. They've said if Cameron mentions the results of the referendum there that will count as invoking A50.

    Doesn't this seem faintly ridiculous to anyone?

    Only a little. They don't want to do any negotiating while Britain is still a part of the EU. Bringing up the referendum in talks with the EU makes it a negotiation of the british exit, and the EU is firmly against anything even remotely looking like that. It seems their stance is "If you want out, get out, and then you can come back for some negotiations on how the rest of Europe is going to treat you". The EU seems as thought they are going to make this as painful as possible for the UK so as to discourage future exits.
    that's not how article 50 works

    this prevents two situations, in my mind - the U.K using invoking article 50 as a threat in negotiations (kinda weak at this point, but there are still probably fears it would cause issues regarding emboldening Leave campaigns in other countries), and the U.K negotiating from a quantum position where they act as if article 50 is a done deal but aren't actually bound to invoke article 50 at all

    I was assuming it's all posturing, and that article 50 didn't actually work that way. I just meant that the posturing didn't seem ridiculous. They seem to want to hard-line this as much possible.

    They're like "We negotiated with you in February, we gave you a deal, and you pissed it away with that referendum. So now you have to either nut up or back down."

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    edited June 2016
    The treaty says
    Article 50 wrote:
    1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

    2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention.
    ...
    I don't see how mentioning it in Parliament constitutes notification

    edit
    Oh NM I misread

    PantsB on
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    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
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    AegisAegis Fear My Dance Overshot Toronto, Landed in OttawaRegistered User regular
    Is there any reason why Boris Johnson and George Osborne aren't there or am I just missing them? Because after this referendum it seems super weird for the faces of the "winning" side not to turn up to the debate on what happens next.

    Basically this:

    We'll see how long this blog lasts
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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    The treaty says
    Article 50 wrote:
    1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

    2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention.
    ...
    I don't see how mentioning it in Parliament constitutes notification

    That's not the point of contention. The point of contention is if Cameron mentions the referendum at the meeting of the Council tomorrow, some argue that invokes A50. Ideally the process should be

    - PM says in Commons "I think we should do this"
    - Commons votes "Okay", Lords and Queen Ratifies
    - PM Either goes to council or sends commissioner to formally invoke it

    But since there's no precedent, the procedure isn't clear.

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    Anarchy Rules!Anarchy Rules! Registered User regular
    Now Gibraltar is in talks with Scotland about negotiations to stay in the EU.

    I think the most surreal result would be Gibraltar being part of an independent Scotland

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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    Yeah everything I'm reading makes these "you said it in a meeting now it counts" theories look very weak. As it's written the member state has to give formal notification of it's intent. Key words "formal notification".

    Everything I've read indicates the EU themselves subscribe to this interpretation, there can be no giving A50 by accident or by implication.

    The EU can't force this, all they can do is what they've already done, give the "shit or get off the pot" deceleration. And we all know Boris isn't brave enough to shit.

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    P10P10 An Idiot With Low IQ Registered User regular
    i am not sure so much it is being hard-line as a matter of "figure out what you actually want to do before wasting our time"
    preliminary article 50 negotiations would be pretty pointless i would think. nothing concrete has changed until they actually pull the trigger, after all :rotate:
    (although i am curious what long term outcome of embarrassing climb-down would be - renewed angry calls for more referenda?)

    Shameful pursuits and utterly stupid opinions
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    PLAPLA The process.Registered User regular
    Never Back Down 2: The Backdown.

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    AegisAegis Fear My Dance Overshot Toronto, Landed in OttawaRegistered User regular
    The EU isn't Model UN. There's a process they've outlined, and if there's any ambiguity between the member nations, they'll finesse that out in consultations between everyone so that things are absolutely clear if and when it matters.

    We'll see how long this blog lasts
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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    P10 wrote: »
    i am not sure so much it is being hard-line as a matter of "figure out what you actually want to do before wasting our time"
    preliminary article 50 negotiations would be pretty pointless i would think. nothing concrete has changed until they actually pull the trigger, after all :rotate:
    (although i am curious what long term outcome of embarrassing climb-down would be - renewed angry calls for more referenda?)

    Now that will depend on whether an General Election passes between now and then. If this Parliament rejects it, then UKIP will likely become a large party. But if it's after a campaign where the referendum is the key issue and they don't get enough to block it, inflammation would be less so.

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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    P10 wrote: »
    i am not sure so much it is being hard-line as a matter of "figure out what you actually want to do before wasting our time"
    preliminary article 50 negotiations would be pretty pointless i would think. nothing concrete has changed until they actually pull the trigger, after all :rotate:
    (although i am curious what long term outcome of embarrassing climb-down would be - renewed angry calls for more referenda?)

    Boris knows if he pulls the trigger on A50 one of two things will happen.

    1) He'll be forced to re-enter freedom of movement.

    2) The EU will purposefully fudge him for two years until the deadline hits and the UK is out in the cold with NOTHING.

    The only way around this dilemma for him would be to iron out something before hand with no dilemma because it would give him SOME leverage in the negotiations as opposed to none. The EU just gutted him and he knows it. He's probably going to disappear for another week now.

    At this point dealing with the leave riots is actually the least worst option. Good job most the leavers are over 50, cant imagine there's gonna be epic pitched battles between the police and the zimmer frames.

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    altidaltid Registered User regular
    edited June 2016
    PantsB wrote: »
    The treaty says

    1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

    2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention.

    I don't see how mentioning it in Parliament constitutes notification

    edit
    Oh NM I misread

    ahahahahaha!
    Ok, we're good. Did anyone show Europe the UK's constitution before they agreed to that? Even if we wanted to enact it, it would probably take several senior judges and constitutional law experts to figure out how we're meant to, and that's assuming none of them died of old age in the process. Right now it isn't even clear if it's a perogative power encated by the PM alone or an act of parliament.

    altid on
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    JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Bethryn wrote: »

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IVhHet9xMM

    ?

    ....you know, some of the bars of lyrics of this make far too much sense for a song released a decade ago.

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    WotanAnubisWotanAnubis Registered User regular
    Now Gibraltar is in talks with Scotland about negotiations to stay in the EU.

    I think the most surreal result would be Gibraltar being part of an independent Scotland

    Oh, I'm sure Spain is more than willing to help Gibraltar out on that one.

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    Rhesus PositiveRhesus Positive GNU Terry Pratchett Registered User regular
    SCENE: EU conference

    Cameron: OK, we're almost done, but there's one more thing I'd like to bring up: Article fifteeeeee...

    Entire room leads forwards

    Cameron: ...eeeeen of the Lisbon Treaty. Is a six-monthly meeting too frequent? Should The European Council still consist of the Heads of State or Government of the Member States? Carol, please dim the lights, I have a Powerpoint that'll last about an hour.

    [Muffled sounds of gorilla violence]
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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    Calling Boris a xenophobic bigot would be to accuse him of having a set of ideals to call his own.

    He just said what he thought people wanted to hear.

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    JazzJazz Registered User regular
    Best Doctor confirmed.

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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
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    CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/brussels-rejects-boris-johnson-pipe-dream-over-single-market-access
    “It is a pipe dream,” said the EU diplomat. “You cannot have full access to the single market and not accept its rules. If we gave that kind of deal to the UK, then why not to Australia or New Zealand. It would be a free-for-all.”

    A second EU diplomat said: “There are no preferences, there are principles and the principle is ‘no pick and choose’.”

    The diplomat stressed that participating in the single market meant accepting EU rules, including the jurisdiction of the European court of justice, monitoring by the European commission and accepting the primacy of EU law over national law – conditions that will be anathema to leave advocates who campaigned on the mantra “take back control”.

    “There is no logic of punishment or sanction but the application of the law,” the diplomat said.

    A third EU diplomat said the Brexit side had “no clue” what was going on and did not have a plan.
    EU diplomats are slowly groping towards a consensus on a Brexit timetable, following crisis talks between 27 senior diplomats on Sunday that excluded the UK. The increasingly dominant view is that Britain should trigger article 50 by the end of the year, starting the clock on two years of divorce negotiations. This would allow the UK to leave the EU before European parliament elections and the appointment of a new European commission in 2019.

    Although countries are split over how much pressure to put on London to fire the starting gun on talks, Brussels appears united that there can be no informal talks, before the UK notifies the EU of its intention to leave. “No negotiations without notification” is becoming the key phrase in the standoff with London.

    “If they treat their referendum as a non-event, we will also treat their referendum as a non-event,” an EU diplomat said.
    "No negotiations without notification" is going to be fun to say.

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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Now Gibraltar is in talks with Scotland about negotiations to stay in the EU.

    I think the most surreal result would be Gibraltar being part of an independent Scotland

    Oh, I'm sure Spain is more than willing to help Gibraltar out on that one.

    They've already suggested maybe joint sovereignty could allow Gibraltar to stay in the EU.

    Barring the UK U-turn, they could softly softly talk Gibraltar into joining Spain

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    schussschuss Registered User regular
    SCENE: EU conference

    Cameron: OK, we're almost done, but there's one more thing I'd like to bring up: Article fifteeeeee...

    Entire room leads forwards

    Cameron: ...eeeeen of the Lisbon Treaty. Is a six-monthly meeting too frequent? Should The European Council still consist of the Heads of State or Government of the Member States? Carol, please dim the lights, I have a Powerpoint that'll last about an hour.

    Nah, Cameron will just hit the evening events and spend the other ones playing on his phone, with an occasional "No Comment" on specific questions. He definitely seems out of fucks to give.

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    VeagleVeagle Registered User regular
    Now Gibraltar is in talks with Scotland about negotiations to stay in the EU.

    I think the most surreal result would be Gibraltar being part of an independent Scotland

    Just like a game of Crusader Kings II!

    steam_sig.png
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    EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    Have there been any respectable polls in North Ireland recently about reunification, especially after this vote?

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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    Have there been any respectable polls in North Ireland recently about reunification, especially after this vote?

    Not really, but looking at the census, unless those who vote for Unionist Parties are a lot more attached to the EU than the Parties themselves are, a vote would fail.

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    altidaltid Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    Have there been any respectable polls in North Ireland recently about reunification, especially after this vote?

    None that I know of. NI tends not to do opinion polls for some reason.
    We have, however, nearly run out of Irish passport application forms.

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    japanjapan Registered User regular
    Sky news is reporting Labour are putting a motion of no confidence in Corbyn to a vote tomorrow

    Nobody else seems to have it, though

    That seems like reasonably big news?

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    Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie Registered User regular
    The run on passport applications is crazy. This Brexit thing is going to slow down a lot of people here trying to get their passports sorted for their holidays.

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    Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    My brother, on fb:
    Bit concerned about the impact the current turmoil might have on the contract market, but on the bright side I think it's my turn to be in the shadow cabinet next week.

    "In the future, everyone will be an MP for 15 minutes."

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    Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie Registered User regular


    One step closer to the United Celtic Republic! :D

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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular


    One step closer to the United Celtic Republic! :D

    We need a cooler name though, because for some reason I hate "United" and "Republic" in the same thing

    How about Agricola's Folly?

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    japanjapan Registered User regular
    I could get behind Hibernia as a name

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    ShadowhopeShadowhope Baa. Registered User regular
    edited June 2016
    Veagle wrote: »
    Now Gibraltar is in talks with Scotland about negotiations to stay in the EU.

    I think the most surreal result would be Gibraltar being part of an independent Scotland

    Just like a game of Crusader Kings II!

    Honestly, this whole thing is straight out of CK2. An empire stretches from Germany to Sicily to Spain to Scotland, and a faction in the kingdom of England just gained a lot of power. If they press their faction claim, they could peacefully gain independence, but their leader has just arranged to gain the Incapable trait. Meanwhile, Middlesex, Scotland, and most of Ulster are held by people with strong ties to the continent, and if their kingdom secedes they'll immediately form factions to secede in turn themselves.

    All of this could be averted if someone had had a high enough Diplomacy or Intrigue skill, but everyone in a leadership position put their education towards Stewardship and focused on making money. The obvious solutions are to seduce everyone's wives in order to get them to back plots, fabricate claims and invade their lands, or to just convince the Pope to call a Crusade for Syria. Why does no one do these obvious things anymore?

    Shadowhope on
    Civics is not a consumer product that you can ignore because you don’t like the options presented.
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    LiiyaLiiya Registered User regular
    god this is awful, its like watching your future wash away down the toilet.

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    Rhesus PositiveRhesus Positive GNU Terry Pratchett Registered User regular
    I heard there was a call for some wife-seducing?

    [Muffled sounds of gorilla violence]
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    Panda4YouPanda4You Registered User regular


    One step closer to the United Celtic Republic! :D
    We need a cooler name though, because for some reason I hate "United" and "Republic" in the same thing

    How about Agricola's Folly?
    Well, it's gonna be United something, and not a Kingdom since the monarchy will be kept by the reactionaries down south, so what are the alternatives? :)

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    Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie Registered User regular


    One step closer to the United Celtic Republic! :D

    We need a cooler name though, because for some reason I hate "United" and "Republic" in the same thing

    How about Agricola's Folly?

    Hibernia-Caledonia?

    Or how about the Liberal Open Landed British Independent Territories of Caledonia and Hibernia

    LOLBITCH for short.

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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Celtica might work as a shorthand

This discussion has been closed.