BroloBroseidonLord of the BroceanRegistered Userregular
text:
On Tuesday, the State Department confirmed that two more Americans have fallen victim to an ongoing series of mysterious attacks targeting diplomats in Cuba, the Associated Press reports. The new cases bring the total of Americans affected by the assaults to 21.
US authorities first acknowledged the attacks in August, about nine months after diplomats began reporting bizarre sonic experiences and a puzzling spectrum of symptoms, from brain injuries to hearing loss. Despite an international investigation into the attacks, which have also affected Canadian diplomats, authorities and scientists are still baffled as to what kind of weapon or devices could have been used—let alone by whom.
The victims report a range of symptoms including dizziness, nausea, headaches, balance problems, ringing in the ears (tinnitus), nosebleeds, difficulty concentrating and recalling words, permanent hearing loss, and speech problems. There have also been brain injuries, including swelling and concussion.
Some said they felt vibrations during their attack. Others heard noises, described as either a loud, high-pitch chirping like cicadas or a jarring grinding noise. Some victims reported waking up in bed with a ringing in their ears—which stopped when they moved away from their beds. Still, others said they felt and heard nothing before their symptoms began.
Some say they were attacked in their homes, while others were attacked in the newly renovated Hotel Capri in Havana. The attacks seemed to strike at night, with some saying they came in one-minute bursts.
The combination and severity of injuries has scientists stumped. Sonic devices could be developed that could create a targeted beam of sound capable of injuring a person’s hearing. But such a device would likely be quite large and hard to conceal, the AP reports. And it’s unlikely that a single nefarious gadget could cause the broad range of symptoms that victims are reporting.
On Tuesday, the State Department confirmed that two more Americans have fallen victim to an ongoing series of mysterious attacks targeting diplomats in Cuba, the Associated Press reports. The new cases bring the total of Americans affected by the assaults to 21.
US authorities first acknowledged the attacks in August, about nine months after diplomats began reporting bizarre sonic experiences and a puzzling spectrum of symptoms, from brain injuries to hearing loss. Despite an international investigation into the attacks, which have also affected Canadian diplomats, authorities and scientists are still baffled as to what kind of weapon or devices could have been used—let alone by whom.
The victims report a range of symptoms including dizziness, nausea, headaches, balance problems, ringing in the ears (tinnitus), nosebleeds, difficulty concentrating and recalling words, permanent hearing loss, and speech problems. There have also been brain injuries, including swelling and concussion.
Some said they felt vibrations during their attack. Others heard noises, described as either a loud, high-pitch chirping like cicadas or a jarring grinding noise. Some victims reported waking up in bed with a ringing in their ears—which stopped when they moved away from their beds. Still, others said they felt and heard nothing before their symptoms began.
Some say they were attacked in their homes, while others were attacked in the newly renovated Hotel Capri in Havana. The attacks seemed to strike at night, with some saying they came in one-minute bursts.
The combination and severity of injuries has scientists stumped. Sonic devices could be developed that could create a targeted beam of sound capable of injuring a person’s hearing. But such a device would likely be quite large and hard to conceal, the AP reports. And it’s unlikely that a single nefarious gadget could cause the broad range of symptoms that victims are reporting.
It is...making a lot of people really freaked out in the nat-sec community.
The assumptions I've seen are that it's unlikely it was meant to be harmful, but was merely supposed to be eavesdropping. Considering when the symptoms started, it would've been around the time the new administration came in and started pushing against the opening of Cuba relations under Obama, and so they -- assuming it was Cuba doing it -- were trying to find out what was going on.
On Tuesday, the State Department confirmed that two more Americans have fallen victim to an ongoing series of mysterious attacks targeting diplomats in Cuba, the Associated Press reports. The new cases bring the total of Americans affected by the assaults to 21.
US authorities first acknowledged the attacks in August, about nine months after diplomats began reporting bizarre sonic experiences and a puzzling spectrum of symptoms, from brain injuries to hearing loss. Despite an international investigation into the attacks, which have also affected Canadian diplomats, authorities and scientists are still baffled as to what kind of weapon or devices could have been used—let alone by whom.
The victims report a range of symptoms including dizziness, nausea, headaches, balance problems, ringing in the ears (tinnitus), nosebleeds, difficulty concentrating and recalling words, permanent hearing loss, and speech problems. There have also been brain injuries, including swelling and concussion.
Some said they felt vibrations during their attack. Others heard noises, described as either a loud, high-pitch chirping like cicadas or a jarring grinding noise. Some victims reported waking up in bed with a ringing in their ears—which stopped when they moved away from their beds. Still, others said they felt and heard nothing before their symptoms began.
Some say they were attacked in their homes, while others were attacked in the newly renovated Hotel Capri in Havana. The attacks seemed to strike at night, with some saying they came in one-minute bursts.
The combination and severity of injuries has scientists stumped. Sonic devices could be developed that could create a targeted beam of sound capable of injuring a person’s hearing. But such a device would likely be quite large and hard to conceal, the AP reports. And it’s unlikely that a single nefarious gadget could cause the broad range of symptoms that victims are reporting.
It is...making a lot of people really freaked out in the nat-sec community.
The assumptions I've seen are that it's unlikely it was meant to be harmful, but was merely supposed to be eavesdropping. Considering when the symptoms started, it would've been around the time the new administration came in and started pushing against the opening of Cuba relations under Obama, and so they -- assuming it was Cuba doing it -- were trying to find out what was going on.
My bet is on something radioactive.
Sounds like some of the symptoms you can get from black mold. Their building is moldy.
On Tuesday, the State Department confirmed that two more Americans have fallen victim to an ongoing series of mysterious attacks targeting diplomats in Cuba, the Associated Press reports. The new cases bring the total of Americans affected by the assaults to 21.
US authorities first acknowledged the attacks in August, about nine months after diplomats began reporting bizarre sonic experiences and a puzzling spectrum of symptoms, from brain injuries to hearing loss. Despite an international investigation into the attacks, which have also affected Canadian diplomats, authorities and scientists are still baffled as to what kind of weapon or devices could have been used—let alone by whom.
The victims report a range of symptoms including dizziness, nausea, headaches, balance problems, ringing in the ears (tinnitus), nosebleeds, difficulty concentrating and recalling words, permanent hearing loss, and speech problems. There have also been brain injuries, including swelling and concussion.
Some said they felt vibrations during their attack. Others heard noises, described as either a loud, high-pitch chirping like cicadas or a jarring grinding noise. Some victims reported waking up in bed with a ringing in their ears—which stopped when they moved away from their beds. Still, others said they felt and heard nothing before their symptoms began.
Some say they were attacked in their homes, while others were attacked in the newly renovated Hotel Capri in Havana. The attacks seemed to strike at night, with some saying they came in one-minute bursts.
The combination and severity of injuries has scientists stumped. Sonic devices could be developed that could create a targeted beam of sound capable of injuring a person’s hearing. But such a device would likely be quite large and hard to conceal, the AP reports. And it’s unlikely that a single nefarious gadget could cause the broad range of symptoms that victims are reporting.
On Tuesday, the State Department confirmed that two more Americans have fallen victim to an ongoing series of mysterious attacks targeting diplomats in Cuba, the Associated Press reports. The new cases bring the total of Americans affected by the assaults to 21.
US authorities first acknowledged the attacks in August, about nine months after diplomats began reporting bizarre sonic experiences and a puzzling spectrum of symptoms, from brain injuries to hearing loss. Despite an international investigation into the attacks, which have also affected Canadian diplomats, authorities and scientists are still baffled as to what kind of weapon or devices could have been used—let alone by whom.
The victims report a range of symptoms including dizziness, nausea, headaches, balance problems, ringing in the ears (tinnitus), nosebleeds, difficulty concentrating and recalling words, permanent hearing loss, and speech problems. There have also been brain injuries, including swelling and concussion.
Some said they felt vibrations during their attack. Others heard noises, described as either a loud, high-pitch chirping like cicadas or a jarring grinding noise. Some victims reported waking up in bed with a ringing in their ears—which stopped when they moved away from their beds. Still, others said they felt and heard nothing before their symptoms began.
Some say they were attacked in their homes, while others were attacked in the newly renovated Hotel Capri in Havana. The attacks seemed to strike at night, with some saying they came in one-minute bursts.
The combination and severity of injuries has scientists stumped. Sonic devices could be developed that could create a targeted beam of sound capable of injuring a person’s hearing. But such a device would likely be quite large and hard to conceal, the AP reports. And it’s unlikely that a single nefarious gadget could cause the broad range of symptoms that victims are reporting.
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
edited September 2017
Probably going to get my wrists slapped for this butttttttttttttttttttttt..... (heh butts) .....I figured it would be relevant if I copy my post over to here since it is sciencey and likely would get more into the science stuff to read it in this thread.
Okay first off let me address the elephant in the room. Yes my appearance has changed a lot. Those who remember me may or may not notice it, but yes it's true that those are thinner frames on my glasses. No my prescription didn't change, they are actually fake glasses. I thought it would make me look smarter to have glasses on even though I don't really need any. Trying to go with the whole science nerd motif here. ANYWAYS.....
I noticed in SE++ that Irma got her own thread and Harvey got little attention with you all. (Tsk, tsk, both storms were very impressive!) Because of that I thought I would focus on Hurricane Irma with this post. I actually was at the landfall of both hurricanes though and can answer questions you have abut either, or about Jose and Maria since both now seem to pose some sort of threat to the US, though Jose's threat is fairly minor. In fact it likely wont make landfall at all until it transitions to extra tropical but even then it isn't very likely.
But I digress, back to the hurricane which got the most fan fare on here, Hurricane Irma!
Hurricane Irma will go down in Atlantic Basin history as a storm that likely will not be surpassed in our lifetime in both power and destruction. This storm has been referred to as a "generational storm" for the Atlantic Basin and was much more akin to the super typhoons that the west Pacific gets, and was very rare and unusual for this side of the globe. Much of this has to do with a perfect storm (get it? Because Irma IS a storm! Heh, puns.) of conditions where the Atlantic had minimal to no shear, an extremely moist environment, and near record sea surface temps. It also maintained this favorable environment until the storm arrive in Cuba where an upper level trough of low pressure turned the storm north and pumped her full of dry air as she made landfall on Florida. Had that not occurred we would likely be talking about a cat 4/5 hurricane that impacted much the same areas that Harvey did, or a repeat of Hurricane Ivan/Katrina.
Irma was certainly a storm for the history books, but it was also one for the record books as well. Lets review a list of her most impressive facts and feats.
Irma expended more accumulated cyclone energy during its life than all the Atlantic hurricane seasons COMBINED since 2009.
Irma was the second strongest storm in wind speed the Atlantic basin has ever seen. (Allen was stronger by 5mph and was in the Gulf).
Irma had the strongest sustained winds ever seen in the open Atlantic Ocean.
Irma is the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed in terms of energy spent in the satellite era.
Irma spent more time as a category 5 storm than any storm on record, including outside the Atlantic basin.
Irma was the first cat 5 to hit Cuba in nearly 100 years (1924 was the last time).
Irma is he strongest storm to ever make landfall at peak intensity in the Atlantic basin.
Peak gusts in the eyewall of Irma were likely up to 225mph.
Hurricane Irma and Harvey mark the first time on record that two storms of cat4 or stronger have ever made landfall on the US in the same season.
Irma tied with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 to be the strongest landfalling hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin.
2017 marks the first time that two storms were ongoing in the Atlantic basin at the same time with both having winds =/>150mph (Jose and Irma).
When hitting Florida, Irma's tropical storm winds had a diameter of ~400miles, wide enough to stretch the gap from Tallahassee to Miami, FL.
Irma prompted the largest evacuation and reverse evacuation in United States History.
Irma is currently the deadliest storm of the 2017 season overall and in the US.
Irma's eye was big enough to completely fit the island of Barbuda inside of it.
Irma is tied at 10th place for lowest observed pressure since 1950 in the Atlantic basin with a minimum central pressure of 918mb.
Irma was a Cape Verde-type Hurricane that made landfall multiple times in both annular and classic storm modes.
Irma's winds were so strong/loud they actually registered on the Richter scale due to vibrating the ground and objects they were hitting.
The 2017 season is the first year that NOAA's National Hurricane Center's "storm surge warnings" went operational, which were made in response to the devastation brought by Hurricane Sandy.
On a sad note, I must note that Irma succeeded destroyed my childhood summer home and resting place of my mother on St. John in the USVI.
Irma was a Cape Verde-type Hurricane that made landfall multiple times in both annular and classic storm modes.
I was mostly with you up to here. What does this mean?
Hurricanes can take on two modes. One is annular and the other is... non-annular. I call that the classic type. Annular storms are typically the most violent. If you were to put two cat 5 hurricanes side by side, say that had the same wind field size and were of the same intensity of sustained wind you would often find the annular storm will do more wind damage in its eyewall. The reason for this I will get into in just a moment.
First let us examine how to identify the two types of hurricanes. Annular hurricanes typically are perfectly symmetrical, or very near so, and have shed most if not all of their pronounced rain bands. They are commonly referred to as truck tires, donuts, or buzzsaws among meteorologists and storm chasers for their distinct satellite appearance. Below is a few examples. Note how they lack any real rain bands, have massive open eyes, and a jagged edge around the cirrus deck.
The last image is Irma, see how she lacks bands and is just a big buzzsaw blade? Now lets look at some non-annular hurricanes.
There you can see the distinct difference between the two. Sometimes though you will have storms that form around the edge of a hurricane that are not actually true rainbands and only loosely associated with the hurricane. Don't let these fool you into thinking a storm is not annular. Take a look at this image here and you will see the pronounced fat circular and symmetrical CDO (central dense overcast) region of the cyclone giving away that it is an annular hurricane.
During a hurricane's lifespan they will often replace their inner eyewall as a means of maintaining themselves. When these eyewall replacement cycles happen a storm will briefly weaken a minuscule amount. While vulnerable at this moment, it does not mean a hurricane is on the way out. In fact it usually means the storm is getting larger in diameter and stronger overall and once finished a storm will often come out with even higher winds and lower pressure as long as it is not disturbed in the process.
Depending on the conditions present, when a storm transitions to annular it will do so during one of these cycles. It starts by forming a second, larger eyewall around the first one. This happens when the rainbands become more circular to the storm and begin to overlap until they form a concentric band that circles the inner eye completely. A gap in between the two will exist and is called "the moat." For a time on radar the core of the storm will take on a bullseye pattern. Normally the outer eyewall will shrink and choke off the inner eyewall, killing it and replacing it. If it shrinks enough the storm will not become annular. In an annular transition the inner eyewall dies but the outer eyewall does not shrink, rather it becomes thicker and the process to create more rainbainds seems to stop in favor of building a thicker eyewall. This process is not well understood but one theory suggests that eddies form along the edge of the eyewall that mix the calmer winds of the eye in with the intense winds of the eyewall. These eddies are known as mesovorticies.
Lets look at the radar of a non-annular hurricane. We will use Charlie as an example since it was a strong category 4 upon landfall in Punta Gorda, FL.
The arrow is pointing to the intense yet tiny eye and eyewall of the storm. Around the eyewall you will see a visible moat (the green circle) and then out from there you will see the rainbands in yellow and orange. Charley still has visible banding on radar, but these were well on their way to starting an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). This is evident because the bands closer to the center of the storm have begun to overlap into a large shield of orange on radar, and a moat is visible around the eyewall. Despite that it is clear that Charlie is not annular despite how strong it was.
Once annular a hurricane will rarely go through an ERC since it lacks the necessary rainbands to initiate one. They typically only do so once disturbed by land or a change in water temps. Annular storms do not fare well in sheared or dry environments but do last longer over colder waters than a classic hurricane.
Now why is it important to note if a storm is annular or not? Well it is because of those mesovortices that I mentioned earlier. The ones found in an annular hurricane are typically larger and much more violent than those in a normal hurricane. They help maintain and strengthen an eyewall by introducing the warm buoyant air from inside the low level of the eye into the updrafts of the eyewall. In an annular hurricane they can become so violent that they actually behave like, and cause similar damage to a tornado. The best examples of this can be found in hurricane Harvey and Andrew. Both were annular storms at landfall and both had exceptionally violent vorticies in them.
In the image below you can actually see the ones from Harvey that were captured by a DOW (Doppler on wheels) which is a radar truck that is typically used to study tornadoes in the plains. The image is of the reflective (the rain, ice, and particles in the clouds of the storm being reflected back, what you see on TV most of the time) on the left and the velocities (the direction and speed of the wind) on the right.
The way to read them is as follows.
Reflectivity: The hotter the color, the more intense the rain fall is and the stronger the convection (storm) is there.
Velocity: The colder the colors (green to blue to purple to black) the faster the wind is moving to the left of the image. The hotter the colors (yellow to orange to brown to red) the faster the winds are moving to the right of the image.
The DOW is sitting inside the calm eye. The red circles with arrows indicate the mesovorties locations and spin, the yellow line indicates the edge of the eye and the path they are orbiting on.
Those are found on the very edge of the eye, have the strongest wind gusts, and do the most damage. When you hear Irma had winds gusting to 225mph, it is in these that it was happening. Since they are on the very edge of the eyewall it gets immediately calm a lot of the time just after they pass since the eye then moves over top of you. It is interesting to note that, while on visible satellite images an eye may appear to be a perfect round stadium, in actuality they are not as represented by this radar image of Harvey. Had Harvey been allowed to stay over water another hour or so, it would have hit Texas as a Cat 5 and been as strong as Irma was most likely. Harvey was under rapid intensification thanks to these mesovorticites despite being over the continental shelf. It is one of these that cause the hotel I was in to lose a wall and part of its roof.
Here is what these monsters can do:
(Sad note: The island that was totaly stripped of foliage is St Johns of the USVI, where I grew up most of my summers as a little monsterette.)
So why are they so much worse in an annular storm? Well in this case, size DOES mater. Let us examine the size and shape of an eye in both an annular and non-annular storm using two hurricanes we have already shown.
The mesovorticies in a tiny eye just cant grow to the scale or intensity and are not nearly as stable as in an annular storm. Also the hurricane force wind field is often smaller, much smaller, and so you just don't get the same kind of wind damage between the two.
Most hyper violent storms like Irma was are annular, but only a tiny number of tropical cyclones ever make it to this storm mode. When Irma hit Barbuda and the USVI it was annular, when it hit Cuba it was transitioning back to non-annular, and when it hit Florida it was not annular. This shows why we saw different levels of wind damage, even in areas hit by cat4/5 winds.
Chimera on
+23
Options
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
edited September 2017
LET'S TALK MORE ABOUT HOW THE ATLANTIC AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS CONSPIRING TO DESTROY THINGS WE LOVE!
Hurricane Maria is a rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone that is looking to finish off the rest of the islands that Irma spared. At this time if she continues to strengthen at her current pace she will likely hit Puerto Rico in the early morning on Wednesday as a strong category 3 or 4 hurricane. It would also impact the USVI but this time do more damage to St Croix instead of St John and St Thomas. Luckily for anyone in the path, this storm is not annular which means it's eye and the extreme winds around it, are much smaller in diameter when compared to a storm like Harvey and Irma. (For a recap of what that means, scroll up to my last post.)
Currently, Maria is passing through a very moist environment with little shear (a tiny amount coming from the NW is present) and sea surface temps that are warmer than bath water. All of these conditions are coming together to make this Cape Verde system (a hurricane that is spawned off the Cape Verde Islands near Africa) into a very powerful storm! A storm that as of now looks to rock the tiny US Commonwealth just as they breathed a sigh of relief from being spared by Irma, but just why is Maria so hell bent on taking a cruise there? (Get it, because that's a popular cruise destination! Man I'm nailing the jokes here.) Well to answer that we need to look at an upper level air pattern. Specifically at 500mb! So for those who do not know what that means take a look at the chart below. In meteorology we measure altitude with air pressure, not in actual feet or meters. This is because very specific features inhabit those levels, no matter what altitude above the ground they are. The atmosphere also can be a little taller or shorter in certain areas so using meters or feet would not be accurate for locating said features. 500mb is typically where your steering winds of a storm like this can be found, and is also where the jet stream is. The bottom of the chart below is sea level and it goes up from there.
Now that you understand pressure heights lets move on to looking at why Maria is going towards Puerto Rico and then where she will head from there.
Now if you look at it you will see pretty colors and big "H" and "L" markings on this chart. The "H "stands for high pressure (ridge/high) and the "L" stands for low pressure (trough/low). You will also see on here that I have marked Maria and Jose. Absent is Tropical Depression Lee because it is not deep enough to be seen at 500mb having weakened back to an open tropical wave type surface low. He is too weak and too far east to make any impact on Maria. Irma isn't present because she is dead and long gone. (...and we had only yet to meet her and just started to get to know her!)
Now then, high pressure systems cause the air to rotate clockwise in the northern hemisphere and are known as anti-cyclones. Low pressure systems, like a hurricane, spin counter-clockwise in the northern hemisphere and are known as cyclones. Low pressure centers tend to attract one another as does high pressure, in this case opposites DO NOT attract! This is important because this is why we are seeing Maria head along her present heading.
The best part about having four arms and really sharp claws for fingers is they are great at pointing multiple things out! Just like on this map here. As you can see I am pointing to Jose and a big red arrow. The red arrow indicates the path that Maria is foretasted to take. Just northwest of that red arrow there is a big ridge over the west Atlantic. We call that a Bermuda High since that is where it is roughly located over. Because Maria is located over 60W and the Bermuda High is to its north at the same longitude Maria is being pushed west by the westerly winds rotating around the bottom of the Bermuda High. These winds shift the further west Maria travels and begin to rotate up more towards the north. In addition to that Hurricane Jose opens a channel and wants to bring Maria on in with it by leaving the Bermuda High with a high amplitude (remember it is a ridge as in between waves so the term amplification here is the same as if we were talking about radio waves) and weak western side.
Now normally a storm like Jose would not be one to hang out. When storms get that far north they lose their warm waters, and transition from a tropical cyclone to an extra-tropical low, something like you're used to seeing over the middle of the country when a cold front comes through. Even now Jose is wrapping lots of dry air continental around its core and is developing frontal characteristics. Once this happens they typically eject out towards the northeast to become one with the polar vortex and associated polar jet. Jose however is trapped!
That Bermuda High off too it's east is acting like a brick wall! I thought the point of electing trump was to build a wall to keep the Mexicans out, not in! Well thanks to the blocking pattern over the Atlantic, Jose is sticking around and even forecast to loop back around towards the US! By that time Jose will be closer to a Nor'easter than a tropical storm but it simply being where it is will prevent the Bermuda High from building to the west, and help turn Maria straight towards Puerto Rico and then up along the Eastern Seaboard.
Now you may look at that and think to your self, "OH BOY! Here come's Hurricane Sandy 2.0!" Well, you may not be wrong! A lot of things have to come together to get that though and it isn't very likely. So once Maria clears the Antilles and Turks and Caicos islands where exactly will she go? At this point in time we are not 100% sure and we like to call that time period on the forecast "fantasy land!" A lot of her ultimate end location will depend on how far north Jose makes it, whether or not Jose dissipates, and just how far back to the west it makes it when it completes its next loop.
Since lows spin counter clockwise, they kinda move like tops and without any guidance they will naturally try to turn to the left as they spin in giant loops. This sends them north in the Atlantic and typically into cooler waters with is why many turn away before hitting the Continuous United States (CONUS/Lower 48). For those of us in the CONUS that live along the East Coast it appears likely that once north of the islands Maria will become a fish storm and slowly weaken as she moves over colder waters. There is still the possibility though that she hits the east coast. If so I would likely guess around the Outerbanks of North Carolina or possible New England (though if New England she will be pretty weak).
In closing, Maria is going to fuck up the islands not yet fucked up, and then thanks to Jose miss the east coast (maybe but most likely) so Ole' for Jose!
So in the mean time I am going to try and see if I can work out a deal to get to Pueto Rico tomorrow and if not, I will likely be sitting this one out. Now then, any questions?
EDIT: Just as I was typing this up Maria intensified to a major hurricane just in time for it to hit the Leeward Islands of the Atlantic!
Chimera on
+21
Options
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
Hey so, I hope non of you ever wanted to go to Puerto Rico, St. Croix, or Dominica. Maria is a now REALLY pissed and a category 5. Infact she marks the first time ever in the Atlantic basin that a TWO cat 5 canes have made landfall as a cat 5 and is the second strongest ever to hit the leeward islands.
So what are the odds of there still being any islands in the Caribbean by the time this hurricane season is done?
The islands are going to still be there.
It's just that there won't be much on them except for cold, wet, and hungry people.
+1
Options
Donovan PuppyfuckerA dagger in the dark isworth a thousand swords in the morningRegistered Userregular
A quick reminder to everyone to make sure their home and contents insurance covers you for what it would cost to replace your home and all its contents, not what it all may currently be valued at. On the way back home from a friend's house this weekend I stopped into a small country town that got devastated by a bushfire a few years ago. Maybe 1/3 of the buildings have been rebuilt? And the vast majority of the houses look to be kit homes, where the originals would have been mostly wood framed railway cottages with some later-built brick homes scattered throughout.
I have nothing personal against kit homes, modern ones aren't too bad (if very cheaply constructed) and I spent from the age of 12 through to 20 living in a much older style of kit home which is nowhere near as nice as modern ones are, but if you used to have a beautiful solidly-built cottage and after a disaster you get a smaller crappier house, you've kind of screwed yourself over.
Yeah, Yarloop is never going to be the same. Had a few friends trying to fight that fire and from what they've said it was crazy.
Switch Friend Code: SW-3944-9431-0318
PSN / Xbox / NNID: Fodder185
+1
Options
Donovan PuppyfuckerA dagger in the dark isworth a thousand swords in the morningRegistered Userregular
It was very sad seeing the remains of what used to be the steam museum. Not really anything much salvageable, just a bunch of rusty scrap metal.
0
Options
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
Also if you ever are forced to evacuate always take photos of everything in and outside of your house as you leave as this helps with your insurance claim!
We report wild octopuses (Octopus tetricus) living at high density at a rock outcrop, the second such site known. O. tetricus are often observed as solitary individuals, with the species known to exist at similar densities and exhibiting complex social behaviors at only one site other than that described here. The present site was occupied by 10–15 octopuses on eight different days. We recorded frequent interactions, signaling, mating, mate defense, eviction of octopuses from dens, and attempts to exclude individuals from the site. These observations demonstrate that high-density occupation and complex social behaviors are not unique to the earlier described site, which had been affected to some extent by remains of human activity. Behavior at this second site confirms that complex social interactions also occur in association with natural substrate, and suggest that social interactions are more wide spread among octopuses than previously recognized.
We report wild octopuses (Octopus tetricus) living at high density at a rock outcrop, the second such site known. O. tetricus are often observed as solitary individuals, with the species known to exist at similar densities and exhibiting complex social behaviors at only one site other than that described here. The present site was occupied by 10–15 octopuses on eight different days. We recorded frequent interactions, signaling, mating, mate defense, eviction of octopuses from dens, and attempts to exclude individuals from the site. These observations demonstrate that high-density occupation and complex social behaviors are not unique to the earlier described site, which had been affected to some extent by remains of human activity. Behavior at this second site confirms that complex social interactions also occur in association with natural substrate, and suggest that social interactions are more wide spread among octopuses than previously recognized.
We report wild octopuses (Octopus tetricus) living at high density at a rock outcrop, the second such site known. O. tetricus are often observed as solitary individuals, with the species known to exist at similar densities and exhibiting complex social behaviors at only one site other than that described here. The present site was occupied by 10–15 octopuses on eight different days. We recorded frequent interactions, signaling, mating, mate defense, eviction of octopuses from dens, and attempts to exclude individuals from the site. These observations demonstrate that high-density occupation and complex social behaviors are not unique to the earlier described site, which had been affected to some extent by remains of human activity. Behavior at this second site confirms that complex social interactions also occur in association with natural substrate, and suggest that social interactions are more wide spread among octopuses than previously recognized.
We report wild octopuses (Octopus tetricus) living at high density at a rock outcrop, the second such site known. O. tetricus are often observed as solitary individuals, with the species known to exist at similar densities and exhibiting complex social behaviors at only one site other than that described here. The present site was occupied by 10–15 octopuses on eight different days. We recorded frequent interactions, signaling, mating, mate defense, eviction of octopuses from dens, and attempts to exclude individuals from the site. These observations demonstrate that high-density occupation and complex social behaviors are not unique to the earlier described site, which had been affected to some extent by remains of human activity. Behavior at this second site confirms that complex social interactions also occur in association with natural substrate, and suggest that social interactions are more wide spread among octopuses than previously recognized.
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
edited September 2017
So the earth is really mad at North America, I think it's because of Trump but who knows.
Moments ago a massive 7.0 quake just hit Mexico City on the anniversary of the 1985 8.0 and was likely an after shock of their most recent quake that happened a few weeks ago or so.
Meanwhile in the Caribbean, Maria has reduced the lush island of Dominica to toothpicks and rubble, has gotten larger thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle, and is now getting stronger as it heads for Puerto Rico. At this time the pressure has fallen to 916mb per the latest recon flight. The pressure is now 2mb away from the strongest point of Irma's life and is still dropping so it is like that Maria may actually end up stronger than Irma was for a moment. While it may not maintain this pressure as it heads for the US Islands, it will still bring incredible winds and is a worst worst case scenario.
7.0 is something to really sit up and take notice compared to the 3.6 Los Angeles got at midnight.
+6
Options
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
Wow Maria is really working to impress. She is now down to 909mb which is EXTREMELY strong. This is likely due to her pinhole eye which is reminiscent of Hurricane Wilma. In 2005 Wilma set the record for lowest recorded pressure in the Atlantic Basin and Maria is well on her way to beat that record. Puerto Rico and St. Croix are basically toast.
Interesting in the latest recon data you can clearly see the location of the second eyewall. She looks like she may go under a eyewall replacement cycle soon. Maybe try to transition to annular? This will need to be watched closely.
+1
Options
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
Ah hell, Maria didn't need to get stronger. Can it please just disperse already?
Though out of curiosity - how do the hurricane recon flights take measurements? Do they trail/drop sensors from above the storm (which I want to say is basically clear skies?) or do they make passes into it (which seems utterly insane)?
Ah hell, Maria didn't need to get stronger. Can it please just disperse already?
Though out of curiosity - how do the hurricane recon flights take measurements? Do they trail/drop sensors from above the storm (which I want to say is basically clear skies?) or do they make passes into it (which seems utterly insane)?
Oh it's anything but clear except in the eye. They use a P-3 Orion and a C-130 and fly directly into the storm and make big X shape flight paths as they cross through the eyewall again and again and experience drops up to 100ft in turbulence. Inside the plane are a group of scientists that drop little sensor packs out a tube in the middle of the plane and they parachute down to the surface and create a sounding as well as get pressure and wind speed data. They work like a weather balloon in reverse and are called dropsondes.
Here is an example of a flight path in Maria.
This flight is actually on-going and the plane is still in there. With a storm like maria they will fly near constantly in the storm, making sure there is almost always a plane in it. It is the data these flights give us that allow us to model the path of the storm and figure out what it will do next.
Huh. There's no point where all the clouds just stop and you're safely above the whole mess, or it's just impractically high?
Yes, but with a storm like maria we are talking ~50,000 feet and thats above flight level. Also you have to be in the clouds to get the needed measurements. In addition to the dropsondes the plane its self has sensors on in.
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
For those wanting to watch the current flight, they are about to make another pass on the eye. Last pass found a gust of 193mph in the eyewall at the surface. Here's the link:
I will say that for years I have tried to get a seat on a hurricane hunter flight. It isn't impossible but really hard. This is like, a life time dream of mine to fly into a storm this strong in one of their planes.
+6
Options
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
edited September 2017
Some of the dropsondes on the latest pass of the hurricane hunters through the eye failed to report a surface wind back to the plane, showing that they may be overloaded by wind stronger than they are designed for.
One thing neat is that she is getting close enough to Puerto Rico to dissect on radar. Take a look at this radar image I snagged off of my radar software, looks like she is trying to form a second eyewall and maybe initiate an eyewall replacement cycle. While this will make the winds weaken a little they will still be fiercely strong and cat 5 level. Here, let me point out what I am talking about....
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
So this is unfiltered level 3 data feed straight from the radar site and not what you see on TV or sites like weather.com because those have been cleaned up for viewers to reduce clutter and make them easier to read. The Radial lines coming out are likely because of ground clutter blocking the beam (things like hills, buildings, towers, water tanks, etc).
0
Options
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
Compared to my last post you can now see the spiral shape of the secondary, outer eyewall has now closed off into a circle and so she will try to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. What happens here is that outer eyewall will close in and choke off the inner eyewall. This will cause the storm to become bigger and briefly weaker (but still a cat 5 most likely). This also gives Maria a chance to go from a non-annular storm with a pinhole eye to a much larger and more destructive annular hurricane. This is taking place during the night when storms typically strengthen the most (dude to latent heat transfer) and thus there is a distinct possibility she comes out an even bigger monster. For St Croix the good news is that she may be slightly weaker when she hits mid replacement cycle. Sadly it will be completed before it makes it to Puerto Rico.
7.0 is something to really sit up and take notice compared to the 3.6 Los Angeles got at midnight.
Quakes in Mexico City are always bad because the city is built on a lakebed, too, plus the population of that area is bigger than any other metro in the hemisphere (it edges out New York). But it could've been a hell of a lot worse, apparently. A lot of first responders were doing drills because of the earthquake in 1985 and would've been a better state of readiness than normal.
I am an old, and grew up in the height of the AIDS scare. In retrospect, we were unreasonably afraid of this disease because so little was known about how it spread, but now it looks like they may have a way to defeat it.
I put this on FB, but the closest analogy I can come up with is that this must have been what previous generations felt when they announced the polio vaccine.
Posts
text:
US authorities first acknowledged the attacks in August, about nine months after diplomats began reporting bizarre sonic experiences and a puzzling spectrum of symptoms, from brain injuries to hearing loss. Despite an international investigation into the attacks, which have also affected Canadian diplomats, authorities and scientists are still baffled as to what kind of weapon or devices could have been used—let alone by whom.
The victims report a range of symptoms including dizziness, nausea, headaches, balance problems, ringing in the ears (tinnitus), nosebleeds, difficulty concentrating and recalling words, permanent hearing loss, and speech problems. There have also been brain injuries, including swelling and concussion.
Some said they felt vibrations during their attack. Others heard noises, described as either a loud, high-pitch chirping like cicadas or a jarring grinding noise. Some victims reported waking up in bed with a ringing in their ears—which stopped when they moved away from their beds. Still, others said they felt and heard nothing before their symptoms began.
Some say they were attacked in their homes, while others were attacked in the newly renovated Hotel Capri in Havana. The attacks seemed to strike at night, with some saying they came in one-minute bursts.
The combination and severity of injuries has scientists stumped. Sonic devices could be developed that could create a targeted beam of sound capable of injuring a person’s hearing. But such a device would likely be quite large and hard to conceal, the AP reports. And it’s unlikely that a single nefarious gadget could cause the broad range of symptoms that victims are reporting.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/brain-injuries-hearing-loss-attacks-on-diplomats-in-cuba-baffle-scientists/
what in the fuck
It is...making a lot of people really freaked out in the nat-sec community.
The assumptions I've seen are that it's unlikely it was meant to be harmful, but was merely supposed to be eavesdropping. Considering when the symptoms started, it would've been around the time the new administration came in and started pushing against the opening of Cuba relations under Obama, and so they -- assuming it was Cuba doing it -- were trying to find out what was going on.
My bet is on something radioactive.
Sounds like some of the symptoms you can get from black mold. Their building is moldy.
Definitely Reapers.
Switch: nin.codes/roldford
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microwave_auditory_effect
Okay first off let me address the elephant in the room. Yes my appearance has changed a lot. Those who remember me may or may not notice it, but yes it's true that those are thinner frames on my glasses. No my prescription didn't change, they are actually fake glasses. I thought it would make me look smarter to have glasses on even though I don't really need any. Trying to go with the whole science nerd motif here. ANYWAYS.....
I noticed in SE++ that Irma got her own thread and Harvey got little attention with you all. (Tsk, tsk, both storms were very impressive!) Because of that I thought I would focus on Hurricane Irma with this post. I actually was at the landfall of both hurricanes though and can answer questions you have abut either, or about Jose and Maria since both now seem to pose some sort of threat to the US, though Jose's threat is fairly minor. In fact it likely wont make landfall at all until it transitions to extra tropical but even then it isn't very likely.
But I digress, back to the hurricane which got the most fan fare on here, Hurricane Irma!
Hurricane Irma will go down in Atlantic Basin history as a storm that likely will not be surpassed in our lifetime in both power and destruction. This storm has been referred to as a "generational storm" for the Atlantic Basin and was much more akin to the super typhoons that the west Pacific gets, and was very rare and unusual for this side of the globe. Much of this has to do with a perfect storm (get it? Because Irma IS a storm! Heh, puns.) of conditions where the Atlantic had minimal to no shear, an extremely moist environment, and near record sea surface temps. It also maintained this favorable environment until the storm arrive in Cuba where an upper level trough of low pressure turned the storm north and pumped her full of dry air as she made landfall on Florida. Had that not occurred we would likely be talking about a cat 4/5 hurricane that impacted much the same areas that Harvey did, or a repeat of Hurricane Ivan/Katrina.
Irma was certainly a storm for the history books, but it was also one for the record books as well. Lets review a list of her most impressive facts and feats.
Hurricanes can take on two modes. One is annular and the other is... non-annular. I call that the classic type. Annular storms are typically the most violent. If you were to put two cat 5 hurricanes side by side, say that had the same wind field size and were of the same intensity of sustained wind you would often find the annular storm will do more wind damage in its eyewall. The reason for this I will get into in just a moment.
First let us examine how to identify the two types of hurricanes. Annular hurricanes typically are perfectly symmetrical, or very near so, and have shed most if not all of their pronounced rain bands. They are commonly referred to as truck tires, donuts, or buzzsaws among meteorologists and storm chasers for their distinct satellite appearance. Below is a few examples. Note how they lack any real rain bands, have massive open eyes, and a jagged edge around the cirrus deck.
The last image is Irma, see how she lacks bands and is just a big buzzsaw blade? Now lets look at some non-annular hurricanes.
There you can see the distinct difference between the two. Sometimes though you will have storms that form around the edge of a hurricane that are not actually true rainbands and only loosely associated with the hurricane. Don't let these fool you into thinking a storm is not annular. Take a look at this image here and you will see the pronounced fat circular and symmetrical CDO (central dense overcast) region of the cyclone giving away that it is an annular hurricane.
During a hurricane's lifespan they will often replace their inner eyewall as a means of maintaining themselves. When these eyewall replacement cycles happen a storm will briefly weaken a minuscule amount. While vulnerable at this moment, it does not mean a hurricane is on the way out. In fact it usually means the storm is getting larger in diameter and stronger overall and once finished a storm will often come out with even higher winds and lower pressure as long as it is not disturbed in the process.
Depending on the conditions present, when a storm transitions to annular it will do so during one of these cycles. It starts by forming a second, larger eyewall around the first one. This happens when the rainbands become more circular to the storm and begin to overlap until they form a concentric band that circles the inner eye completely. A gap in between the two will exist and is called "the moat." For a time on radar the core of the storm will take on a bullseye pattern. Normally the outer eyewall will shrink and choke off the inner eyewall, killing it and replacing it. If it shrinks enough the storm will not become annular. In an annular transition the inner eyewall dies but the outer eyewall does not shrink, rather it becomes thicker and the process to create more rainbainds seems to stop in favor of building a thicker eyewall. This process is not well understood but one theory suggests that eddies form along the edge of the eyewall that mix the calmer winds of the eye in with the intense winds of the eyewall. These eddies are known as mesovorticies.
Lets look at the radar of a non-annular hurricane. We will use Charlie as an example since it was a strong category 4 upon landfall in Punta Gorda, FL.
The arrow is pointing to the intense yet tiny eye and eyewall of the storm. Around the eyewall you will see a visible moat (the green circle) and then out from there you will see the rainbands in yellow and orange. Charley still has visible banding on radar, but these were well on their way to starting an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). This is evident because the bands closer to the center of the storm have begun to overlap into a large shield of orange on radar, and a moat is visible around the eyewall. Despite that it is clear that Charlie is not annular despite how strong it was.
Once annular a hurricane will rarely go through an ERC since it lacks the necessary rainbands to initiate one. They typically only do so once disturbed by land or a change in water temps. Annular storms do not fare well in sheared or dry environments but do last longer over colder waters than a classic hurricane.
Now why is it important to note if a storm is annular or not? Well it is because of those mesovortices that I mentioned earlier. The ones found in an annular hurricane are typically larger and much more violent than those in a normal hurricane. They help maintain and strengthen an eyewall by introducing the warm buoyant air from inside the low level of the eye into the updrafts of the eyewall. In an annular hurricane they can become so violent that they actually behave like, and cause similar damage to a tornado. The best examples of this can be found in hurricane Harvey and Andrew. Both were annular storms at landfall and both had exceptionally violent vorticies in them.
In the image below you can actually see the ones from Harvey that were captured by a DOW (Doppler on wheels) which is a radar truck that is typically used to study tornadoes in the plains. The image is of the reflective (the rain, ice, and particles in the clouds of the storm being reflected back, what you see on TV most of the time) on the left and the velocities (the direction and speed of the wind) on the right.
The way to read them is as follows.
Reflectivity: The hotter the color, the more intense the rain fall is and the stronger the convection (storm) is there.
Velocity: The colder the colors (green to blue to purple to black) the faster the wind is moving to the left of the image. The hotter the colors (yellow to orange to brown to red) the faster the winds are moving to the right of the image.
The DOW is sitting inside the calm eye. The red circles with arrows indicate the mesovorties locations and spin, the yellow line indicates the edge of the eye and the path they are orbiting on.
Those are found on the very edge of the eye, have the strongest wind gusts, and do the most damage. When you hear Irma had winds gusting to 225mph, it is in these that it was happening. Since they are on the very edge of the eyewall it gets immediately calm a lot of the time just after they pass since the eye then moves over top of you. It is interesting to note that, while on visible satellite images an eye may appear to be a perfect round stadium, in actuality they are not as represented by this radar image of Harvey. Had Harvey been allowed to stay over water another hour or so, it would have hit Texas as a Cat 5 and been as strong as Irma was most likely. Harvey was under rapid intensification thanks to these mesovorticites despite being over the continental shelf. It is one of these that cause the hotel I was in to lose a wall and part of its roof.
Here is what these monsters can do:
(Sad note: The island that was totaly stripped of foliage is St Johns of the USVI, where I grew up most of my summers as a little monsterette.)
So why are they so much worse in an annular storm? Well in this case, size DOES mater. Let us examine the size and shape of an eye in both an annular and non-annular storm using two hurricanes we have already shown.
The mesovorticies in a tiny eye just cant grow to the scale or intensity and are not nearly as stable as in an annular storm. Also the hurricane force wind field is often smaller, much smaller, and so you just don't get the same kind of wind damage between the two.
Most hyper violent storms like Irma was are annular, but only a tiny number of tropical cyclones ever make it to this storm mode. When Irma hit Barbuda and the USVI it was annular, when it hit Cuba it was transitioning back to non-annular, and when it hit Florida it was not annular. This shows why we saw different levels of wind damage, even in areas hit by cat4/5 winds.
Hurricane Maria is a rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone that is looking to finish off the rest of the islands that Irma spared. At this time if she continues to strengthen at her current pace she will likely hit Puerto Rico in the early morning on Wednesday as a strong category 3 or 4 hurricane. It would also impact the USVI but this time do more damage to St Croix instead of St John and St Thomas. Luckily for anyone in the path, this storm is not annular which means it's eye and the extreme winds around it, are much smaller in diameter when compared to a storm like Harvey and Irma. (For a recap of what that means, scroll up to my last post.)
Currently, Maria is passing through a very moist environment with little shear (a tiny amount coming from the NW is present) and sea surface temps that are warmer than bath water. All of these conditions are coming together to make this Cape Verde system (a hurricane that is spawned off the Cape Verde Islands near Africa) into a very powerful storm! A storm that as of now looks to rock the tiny US Commonwealth just as they breathed a sigh of relief from being spared by Irma, but just why is Maria so hell bent on taking a cruise there? (Get it, because that's a popular cruise destination! Man I'm nailing the jokes here.) Well to answer that we need to look at an upper level air pattern. Specifically at 500mb! So for those who do not know what that means take a look at the chart below. In meteorology we measure altitude with air pressure, not in actual feet or meters. This is because very specific features inhabit those levels, no matter what altitude above the ground they are. The atmosphere also can be a little taller or shorter in certain areas so using meters or feet would not be accurate for locating said features. 500mb is typically where your steering winds of a storm like this can be found, and is also where the jet stream is. The bottom of the chart below is sea level and it goes up from there.
Now that you understand pressure heights lets move on to looking at why Maria is going towards Puerto Rico and then where she will head from there.
Now if you look at it you will see pretty colors and big "H" and "L" markings on this chart. The "H "stands for high pressure (ridge/high) and the "L" stands for low pressure (trough/low). You will also see on here that I have marked Maria and Jose. Absent is Tropical Depression Lee because it is not deep enough to be seen at 500mb having weakened back to an open tropical wave type surface low. He is too weak and too far east to make any impact on Maria. Irma isn't present because she is dead and long gone. (...and we had only yet to meet her and just started to get to know her!)
Now then, high pressure systems cause the air to rotate clockwise in the northern hemisphere and are known as anti-cyclones. Low pressure systems, like a hurricane, spin counter-clockwise in the northern hemisphere and are known as cyclones. Low pressure centers tend to attract one another as does high pressure, in this case opposites DO NOT attract! This is important because this is why we are seeing Maria head along her present heading.
The best part about having four arms and really sharp claws for fingers is they are great at pointing multiple things out! Just like on this map here. As you can see I am pointing to Jose and a big red arrow. The red arrow indicates the path that Maria is foretasted to take. Just northwest of that red arrow there is a big ridge over the west Atlantic. We call that a Bermuda High since that is where it is roughly located over. Because Maria is located over 60W and the Bermuda High is to its north at the same longitude Maria is being pushed west by the westerly winds rotating around the bottom of the Bermuda High. These winds shift the further west Maria travels and begin to rotate up more towards the north. In addition to that Hurricane Jose opens a channel and wants to bring Maria on in with it by leaving the Bermuda High with a high amplitude (remember it is a ridge as in between waves so the term amplification here is the same as if we were talking about radio waves) and weak western side.
Now normally a storm like Jose would not be one to hang out. When storms get that far north they lose their warm waters, and transition from a tropical cyclone to an extra-tropical low, something like you're used to seeing over the middle of the country when a cold front comes through. Even now Jose is wrapping lots of dry air continental around its core and is developing frontal characteristics. Once this happens they typically eject out towards the northeast to become one with the polar vortex and associated polar jet. Jose however is trapped!
That Bermuda High off too it's east is acting like a brick wall! I thought the point of electing trump was to build a wall to keep the Mexicans out, not in! Well thanks to the blocking pattern over the Atlantic, Jose is sticking around and even forecast to loop back around towards the US! By that time Jose will be closer to a Nor'easter than a tropical storm but it simply being where it is will prevent the Bermuda High from building to the west, and help turn Maria straight towards Puerto Rico and then up along the Eastern Seaboard.
Now you may look at that and think to your self, "OH BOY! Here come's Hurricane Sandy 2.0!" Well, you may not be wrong! A lot of things have to come together to get that though and it isn't very likely. So once Maria clears the Antilles and Turks and Caicos islands where exactly will she go? At this point in time we are not 100% sure and we like to call that time period on the forecast "fantasy land!" A lot of her ultimate end location will depend on how far north Jose makes it, whether or not Jose dissipates, and just how far back to the west it makes it when it completes its next loop.
Since lows spin counter clockwise, they kinda move like tops and without any guidance they will naturally try to turn to the left as they spin in giant loops. This sends them north in the Atlantic and typically into cooler waters with is why many turn away before hitting the Continuous United States (CONUS/Lower 48). For those of us in the CONUS that live along the East Coast it appears likely that once north of the islands Maria will become a fish storm and slowly weaken as she moves over colder waters. There is still the possibility though that she hits the east coast. If so I would likely guess around the Outerbanks of North Carolina or possible New England (though if New England she will be pretty weak).
In closing, Maria is going to fuck up the islands not yet fucked up, and then thanks to Jose miss the east coast (maybe but most likely) so Ole' for Jose!
So in the mean time I am going to try and see if I can work out a deal to get to Pueto Rico tomorrow and if not, I will likely be sitting this one out. Now then, any questions?
EDIT: Just as I was typing this up Maria intensified to a major hurricane just in time for it to hit the Leeward Islands of the Atlantic!
Well, we likely will still have the ABC islands.
The islands are going to still be there.
It's just that there won't be much on them except for cold, wet, and hungry people.
I have nothing personal against kit homes, modern ones aren't too bad (if very cheaply constructed) and I spent from the age of 12 through to 20 living in a much older style of kit home which is nowhere near as nice as modern ones are, but if you used to have a beautiful solidly-built cottage and after a disaster you get a smaller crappier house, you've kind of screwed yourself over.
PSN / Xbox / NNID: Fodder185
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10236244.2017.1369851
I once saw a japanese cartoon about mating octopuses in remains of human activity. It was strangely arousing.
Ia! Ia!
http://www.techtimes.com/articles/213552/20170919/octlantis-marine-biologists-discover-underwater-city-of-gloomy-octopuses-with-complex-social-behaviors.htm
Moments ago a massive 7.0 quake just hit Mexico City on the anniversary of the 1985 8.0 and was likely an after shock of their most recent quake that happened a few weeks ago or so.
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us2000ar20#executive
Meanwhile in the Caribbean, Maria has reduced the lush island of Dominica to toothpicks and rubble, has gotten larger thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle, and is now getting stronger as it heads for Puerto Rico. At this time the pressure has fallen to 916mb per the latest recon flight. The pressure is now 2mb away from the strongest point of Irma's life and is still dropping so it is like that Maria may actually end up stronger than Irma was for a moment. While it may not maintain this pressure as it heads for the US Islands, it will still bring incredible winds and is a worst worst case scenario.
Interesting in the latest recon data you can clearly see the location of the second eyewall. She looks like she may go under a eyewall replacement cycle soon. Maybe try to transition to annular? This will need to be watched closely.
Hell we get little quakes like the one in LA in Oklahoma all the time only ours are much more shallow and can be felt from further away.
Though out of curiosity - how do the hurricane recon flights take measurements? Do they trail/drop sensors from above the storm (which I want to say is basically clear skies?) or do they make passes into it (which seems utterly insane)?
3DS: 0473-8507-2652
Switch: SW-5185-4991-5118
PSN: AbEntropy
Oh it's anything but clear except in the eye. They use a P-3 Orion and a C-130 and fly directly into the storm and make big X shape flight paths as they cross through the eyewall again and again and experience drops up to 100ft in turbulence. Inside the plane are a group of scientists that drop little sensor packs out a tube in the middle of the plane and they parachute down to the surface and create a sounding as well as get pressure and wind speed data. They work like a weather balloon in reverse and are called dropsondes.
Here is an example of a flight path in Maria.
This flight is actually on-going and the plane is still in there. With a storm like maria they will fly near constantly in the storm, making sure there is almost always a plane in it. It is the data these flights give us that allow us to model the path of the storm and figure out what it will do next.
3DS: 0473-8507-2652
Switch: SW-5185-4991-5118
PSN: AbEntropy
Yes, but with a storm like maria we are talking ~50,000 feet and thats above flight level. Also you have to be in the clouds to get the needed measurements. In addition to the dropsondes the plane its self has sensors on in.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#AF3030515AMARIA
I will say that for years I have tried to get a seat on a hurricane hunter flight. It isn't impossible but really hard. This is like, a life time dream of mine to fly into a storm this strong in one of their planes.
One thing neat is that she is getting close enough to Puerto Rico to dissect on radar. Take a look at this radar image I snagged off of my radar software, looks like she is trying to form a second eyewall and maybe initiate an eyewall replacement cycle. While this will make the winds weaken a little they will still be fiercely strong and cat 5 level. Here, let me point out what I am talking about....
3DS: 0473-8507-2652
Switch: SW-5185-4991-5118
PSN: AbEntropy
Compared to my last post you can now see the spiral shape of the secondary, outer eyewall has now closed off into a circle and so she will try to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. What happens here is that outer eyewall will close in and choke off the inner eyewall. This will cause the storm to become bigger and briefly weaker (but still a cat 5 most likely). This also gives Maria a chance to go from a non-annular storm with a pinhole eye to a much larger and more destructive annular hurricane. This is taking place during the night when storms typically strengthen the most (dude to latent heat transfer) and thus there is a distinct possibility she comes out an even bigger monster. For St Croix the good news is that she may be slightly weaker when she hits mid replacement cycle. Sadly it will be completed before it makes it to Puerto Rico.
Quakes in Mexico City are always bad because the city is built on a lakebed, too, plus the population of that area is bigger than any other metro in the hemisphere (it edges out New York). But it could've been a hell of a lot worse, apparently. A lot of first responders were doing drills because of the earthquake in 1985 and would've been a better state of readiness than normal.
I put this on FB, but the closest analogy I can come up with is that this must have been what previous generations felt when they announced the polio vaccine.