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US Presidential Election: Wave Riders
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Yeah, I'd love to be where we were two weeks ago, but right now, meh. The debates have the potential for enough of an effect it's not worth getting worked up now when everything might change in a week anyway.
And she's still doing pretty decently! I don't like to see Trump gaining ground in national polls or winning polls in states like Ohio or Florida, but those are must win states for him--not for Hillary. Post-9/11 polls from states like PA and the upper midwest have been pretty good. Closer than I'd like, but she's still got a lead.
I also have decent faith in her ground game. I don't know how much Trump's total lack of a campaign organization will hurt him in practice, but I do think that at the very least, states that look like coin flips are weighted towards Hillary.
It's funny because I hear all my Republican friends going on and on about how the media is just out to get Trump and all this but in reality they're going so easy on him because their ratings are going up. It's killing me. I don't understand how anyone can vote for the man at this point with everything he's done. Do people just not want to be wrong? Are the supreme court justices going to R that important? Are they willing to risk EVERYTHING we have just to ensure that abortions are illegal?
The combined force of racism and misogyny are powerful indeed.
Yeah this is awesome. I'm currently sitting at 40K of debt left and I've been out of school 5 years. My rate is 6%.
How dare we give a terrorist suspect who is a US citizen decent medical treatment? Jesus, his audience is booing giving the suspect medical treatment.
Three guesses what he's really talking about.
Do not engage the Watermelons.
They are more likely to be wrong in this election than ever before because there is no actual Trump campaign. There's a Trump media presence, but there's not a campaign.
This is a Trump rally staple he has been given since last year. Because Trump is a master of projection, you can assume Trump is really talking about himself.
This is possibly a reason to trust their internals over any other single poll. But it's not necessarily a reason to trust internals over a collection of dozens of polls taken in aggregate.
Even someone who's great at polling is going to have subtle biases to overcome and assumptions to make that may or may not be accurate. The theory (born out by lots of evidence) behind models like Nate's is that when you consider a lot of polls together, these biases and bad assumptions cancel out.
You might think that any one poll is crappy, but the fact is that it still contains information. The alternative is that it's literally random noise, which is kind of silly to consider. If the bad poll contains information, it's theoretically possible to get that information out, just as you can recover data from a corrupted hard drive.
You can decide you want to just toss out polls you think are objectively bad, but then look at what eb suggests. All of the terrible polls he cites coincidentally have a Republican lean. I'm sure he's not intentionally booting just the R polls, but that's the upshot. What about all the polls that have a more pronounced D lean, and are less historically accurate? Well, we'll keep those. Because reasons.
This is why you don't run poll analysis based on your gut.
Otherwise I can probably show up for NH canvassing or phone bank myself. But I really hate doing that stuff.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
whoa what omg plz
so effectively, she wants to better educate america and pay for such education by cutting tax loopholes for the rich?
sign me up!
But I can't back that up with data, and that makes it no more useful a prediction than any of the random shit you see coming out of TPM or CNN.
I have very complicated feelings on this. I think it's great and it should be enacted, but I also gave up 5 years of my life to military service in order to get this kind of financial aid and there's no information on how this would interact with military TA or the GI Bills.
Like I said, it's good, and it should be done. But I'd really hate to be the person still in the military who joined solely for the education benefits when it passes.
Not to be too goosey, but this feels crab bucket as hell. Sure, it might hurt some feelings that some people get benefits previously exclusive to the military, but it doesn't hurt the military, it just helps everybody else out.
also think of all the free food and cheers you get on memorial day (and/or veteran's day)!
There's a fair amount of data entry in my experience if you want to get your feet wet and not push back on the social anxiety side. You'll probably be encouraged to do the person-to-person stuff, but there are other things to do too. Handling those means more time for people who are comfortable doing street canvassing and door to door work.
My general fallback is that her vastly superior ground game should grind out the extra percentage point or two to win a close race. Sure, her campaign was probably super happy post conventions but they planned for a close race. Her campaign's investments should pay off on election day, either by pushing her over the edge or increasing the margin of victory.
That said, I think the debates will probably be more important this cycle than they usually are since there are a surprisingly high number of voters currently leaning minor party. The debates usually bring minor party flirters back to the major parties (if only through the optic of two candidates on the stage). This should help Hillary since a larger number of voters are defecting from her to the Green and Libertarian parties at the moment than from Trump.
That said, I'm pretty disappointed in the young Millenials right now. I'm an old Millenial (born 1984) and remember the 2000 election keenly along with the awfulness of the Bush years. Yet I can't get any traction in persuading young Millenials about the consequential implications of voting or the historical significance of a Hillary presidency. The self-defeating tendencies of young leftists annoys me more now than it ever has, and I'm someone who has gotten more, not less, liberal over time.
There's gotta be a catch. There's always a catch.
Probably something like loans before 2008 doesn't qualify or something.
I didn't say once that this hurts the military.
I said twice that it should be done.
However getting an education is still, and has been since the 50s, a big draw for enlistment in the military, and people are going to find that the benefits they had to sacrifice for, which are often times the sole reason they joined, are going to be normalized while they're still under an enlistment that they can't just walk away from.
I'm still not saying that they shouldn't do it. A free education should be a given in this country, and the kinds of situations that force or entice people into military service as their only route to an education shouldn't still be happening. I'm just saying I've got complicated emotions relating to this.
http://www.vox.com/2016/8/19/12533942/presidential-debates-2016-schedule-dates-polls
So: Ideology, Economy, National Security
I expect these august categories to be abandoned within 10 minutes
NNID: Hakkekage
Which would be great if I could go into a crowd anymore without having a panic attack, or if most veterans gave a shit about praise.
Emails, Why Hillary started the birther movement, and...uh... the third one. EPA?
First time I've ever heard him tell it. But then, I save my high blood pressure for foods high in nitrates and sex with Bengal tigers.
Do not engage the Watermelons.
I will say, I have the utmost respect for your service, and I really want the Veteran's mental health situation to be FAR more covered than it has been, but the sad news is that there's always going to be a point when someone gets a benefit that you didn't have. It sucks and it's not fair, but it'll be better for them. Believe me, I've got boatloads of debt, and I know that it won't get helped by this, but still, It'll help my little nephew, so that's enough for me.
FTC: HONK.
PAX Prime 2014 Resistance Tournament Winner
Alternately poor people will not feel the military is their only option for getting an education, which is a win in my book.
Or: my opponent will take us in the wrong direction, make us poor and make us less safe.
I don't normally kinkshame, but...
That's not alternate to my post. It's exactly what I said
Her plan does call for "strengthening and expanding" the Post-911 GI Bill and other benefits
Regarding the latter health issues
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Actually student debt consolidation, repayment reform, and debt forgiveness is covered in her plan.
Every poll has shown Clinton ahead of Trump among likely millennial voters. Why are people so hell-bent on blaming young people for a potential Clinton loss in this election when it's everyone in the older generations that's voting for Trump?
Sorry poor phrasing. The benefits of her plan, specifically that one wrt military service, outweigh the potential drawback of current and former service members feeling slighted.
I bet someone in her campaign would love to address your concerns about how this would interact with GI Bill stuff though, and probably has some answers or can get some answers.
You caught me. It's sex with Bengal tigers eating food high in nitrates. Kinda stressful all the same.
Do not engage the Watermelons.
Hey man, don't be that way. This is America, and in America anything is possible. Even a poor boy from Queens can get just a little loan and make it all the way to the presidency with true American grit and work. Are you saying you don't believe in the American dream, Jefe?!