Just chiming in, I still haven't moved my vote because from what I've seen, Jpants' argument for voting Kilnaga had more analysis and theory behind it than typical day 1 votes. There's no science to a day 1 vote, and we need to have a majority, so I sided with the best logic I saw.
Is the reasoning weak? Sure. So is all day 1 reasoning.
Is throwing the vote day 1 just so we can see who can do what with their abilities a good idea? No, I do not think it is.
If we're going to get ANY information from killing someone with the vote, I think it's there. I've been quiet because I don't think there's anything more to add.
I feel like the "nobody fire a kill" logic is depending pretty heavily on the hope that we're actually going to learn something tonight.
If there are roles out there that can seer/know how people died/etc..., they will have to reveal to share any of that information. Which means they're likely dead the next night. So, there's a lot of hoping and wishing that if they reveal, the guard is there to protect them.
I'm worried that we're putting a lot of faith in information suddenly appearing on Day 2. What happens if it doesn't? Are we then going to change and ask everyone with a kill to fire it?
If we didn't learn anything from the massive (waste of a...) conversation today, what do we think we'll learn on Day 2 when the mafia has essentially been given a free shot with no risk because they can hide in a place of either "no vote" or just putting a vote literally anywhere since it isn't going to kill someone.
I feel like the "nobody fire a kill" logic is depending pretty heavily on the hope that we're actually going to learn something tonight.
If there are roles out there that can seer/know how people died/etc..., they will have to reveal to share any of that information. Which means they're likely dead the next night. So, there's a lot of hoping and wishing that if they reveal, the guard is there to protect them.
I'm worried that we're putting a lot of faith in information suddenly appearing on Day 2. What happens if it doesn't? Are we then going to change and ask everyone with a kill to fire it?
If we didn't learn anything from the massive (waste of a...) conversation today, what do we think we'll learn on Day 2 when the mafia has essentially been given a free shot with no risk because they can hide in a place of either "no vote" or just putting a vote literally anywhere since it isn't going to kill someone.
Hence my premature Post or Die.
I figured if we weren't going to vote I may as well get everyone talking so there was some record to look back on.
Because if there's no record then post analysis becomes really important and so we need some posts.
Hence my premature Post or Die.
I figured if we weren't going to vote I may as well get everyone talking so there was some record to look back on.
Because if there's no record then post analysis becomes really important and so we need some posts.
That's great and all, but all that's really done if there is no vote kill or vig kill is to force people to do what they already had to do in order to stave off inactivity.
Maybe it's just that there were 4 pages of conversation about punctuation that has killed a lot of desire to keep up with this thread, but I'm still not understanding the reasoning other than what seems to be a statement of "odds are, you're killing a villager".
While that's true, it's also one less person to waste a vote or another kill on. So yes, with 30 people, it's a ~24/30 or 25/30 odds of hitting a village. Also a 6/30 chance of hitting mafia. If no kill, it's a 0/30 chance.
Hence my premature Post or Die.
I figured if we weren't going to vote I may as well get everyone talking so there was some record to look back on.
Because if there's no record then post analysis becomes really important and so we need some posts.
That's great and all, but all that's really done if there is no vote kill or vig kill is to force people to do what they already had to do in order to stave off inactivity.
Maybe it's just that there were 4 pages of conversation about punctuation that has killed a lot of desire to keep up with this thread, but I'm still not understanding the reasoning other than what seems to be a statement of "odds are, you're killing a villager".
While that's true, it's also one less person to waste a vote or another kill on. So yes, with 30 people, it's a ~24/30 or 25/30 odds of hitting a village. Also a 6/30 chance of hitting mafia. If no kill, it's a 0/30 chance.
We still believe the 'Oxford comma' is a way for the Beast to hide its communications.
+3
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38thDoelets never be stupid againwait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered Userregular
It occurs to me that talking like this, the vig is gonna stab the fuck out of me.
Oh well. I stand by my words.
Why do you think this line of reasoning makes you suspect?
Alternatively, if you think it does not, and then are vigged anyway, your logic is sound and you should feel vindicated (assuming you are village).
I don't think it makes me suspect. I think it attracts the vig's attention.
I think a good vig would rather kill someone they find suspicious, rather than someone who is just speculating about the proper way to use their power
I agree! But it's apparent I disagree with the common wisdom on what "a good vig" means.
In fairness, I had terrible fucking aim in Supernatural, so I understand I suck at this game.
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38thDoelets never be stupid againwait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered Userregular
Don't beat yourself up over it. Being a vig is tough. You did a good job and the village won.
Hence my premature Post or Die.
I figured if we weren't going to vote I may as well get everyone talking so there was some record to look back on.
Because if there's no record then post analysis becomes really important and so we need some posts.
That's great and all, but all that's really done if there is no vote kill or vig kill is to force people to do what they already had to do in order to stave off inactivity.
Maybe it's just that there were 4 pages of conversation about punctuation that has killed a lot of desire to keep up with this thread, but I'm still not understanding the reasoning other than what seems to be a statement of "odds are, you're killing a villager".
While that's true, it's also one less person to waste a vote or another kill on. So yes, with 30 people, it's a ~24/30 or 25/30 odds of hitting a village. Also a 6/30 chance of hitting mafia. If no kill, it's a 0/30 chance.
What are the chances of hitting someone important on the village side?
I really don't like how you frame those probabilities. Especially since the mafia can undermine the vote in the thread or instigate a bandwagon. A blind village kill is highly more probable to benefit the mafia than it is us.
With no death reveals, almost any village vote kill is going to be a blind kill. It's unrealistic to assume we are going to catch someone easily and then again, even if we kill them we will have no idea if we hit Mafia since no death reveals.
Extending the game longer with no kills isn't going to actually benefit us since we get no death info without a likely special reveal and there is no network that can work to ferret Mafia out.
It's also interesting that 38th and Austin are the ones pushing for the first-night kill and were also the first two to start the bandwagon on me for the RNG/Not RNG thing.
It's also interesting that 38th and Austin are the ones pushing for the first-night kill and were also the first two to start the bandwagon on me for the RNG/Not RNG thing.
Mathematically speaking, it's beneficial for the village to swing out. They have a lower percentage chance of hitting somebody important village side, and every hit on the mafia side hurts a lot more.
BrodyThe WatchThe First ShoreRegistered Userregular
Also, having been a corpse seer in the cave story? phalla, which was also very low info, having a clear village aligned kill makes it easier to know who to death seer. It definitely feels like seering, and maybe hitting the mafia target, you are guaranteed to not seer red.
"I will write your name in the ruin of them. I will paint you across history in the color of their blood."
Day 1 vote closes in approximately 22 hours. Orders for any abilities marked as "Day Action" are due at that time, if they have not been received you will take no action. (There will not be additional reminders about Day Actions).
Day 1 vote closes in approximately 22 hours. Orders for any abilities marked as "Day Action" are due at that time, if they have not been received you will take no action. (There will not be additional reminders about Day Actions).
You know you want to give me an Amulet of Power. I'm fun and you can trust me when I say I'm lying. And I made Kime into a dinosaur demon and am willing to turn other people into dinomons too. You know you want to own a dinomon, so vote for me. I'm way better than Trump!
Day 1 vote closes in approximately 22 hours. Orders for any abilities marked as "Day Action" are due at that time, if they have not been received you will take no action. (There will not be additional reminders about Day Actions).
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i don't think it was fun. and i was on his side for that game.
personally, i think he really blew the mafia's chances.... cause if you're evil, and can't die..... you know what you shouldn't do? go blab to everyone that you're evil and can't die. You're supposed to be a distraction,and a magnet for attention. you know what gets no attention? that guy on the street corner shouting "look at me!"
i don't think it was fun. and i was on his side for that game.
personally, i think he really blew the mafia's chances.... cause if you're evil, and can't die..... you know what you shouldn't do? go blab to everyone that you're evil and can't die. You're supposed to be a distraction,and a magnet for attention. you know what gets no attention? that guy on the street corner shouting "look at me!"
and your roleplaying is half-assed.
yeah, i said it.
Eh.
I got voted out as an Athan thrice in a game, so I'm not so sure being a huge distraction is bad after you've been outed.
Posts
Fair.
Kilnaga
I could flip back and forth on Jpants all day it seems.
If there are roles out there that can seer/know how people died/etc..., they will have to reveal to share any of that information. Which means they're likely dead the next night. So, there's a lot of hoping and wishing that if they reveal, the guard is there to protect them.
I'm worried that we're putting a lot of faith in information suddenly appearing on Day 2. What happens if it doesn't? Are we then going to change and ask everyone with a kill to fire it?
If we didn't learn anything from the massive (waste of a...) conversation today, what do we think we'll learn on Day 2 when the mafia has essentially been given a free shot with no risk because they can hide in a place of either "no vote" or just putting a vote literally anywhere since it isn't going to kill someone.
Obviously my lousy power is a secret royal decree +10.
Seriously though, I've got enough time so I may as well (ab)use it.
Hence my premature Post or Die.
I figured if we weren't going to vote I may as well get everyone talking so there was some record to look back on.
Because if there's no record then post analysis becomes really important and so we need some posts.
Moridin! Explain yourselves!
We are me and me are we.
What's the difficulty?
That's great and all, but all that's really done if there is no vote kill or vig kill is to force people to do what they already had to do in order to stave off inactivity.
Maybe it's just that there were 4 pages of conversation about punctuation that has killed a lot of desire to keep up with this thread, but I'm still not understanding the reasoning other than what seems to be a statement of "odds are, you're killing a villager".
While that's true, it's also one less person to waste a vote or another kill on. So yes, with 30 people, it's a ~24/30 or 25/30 odds of hitting a village. Also a 6/30 chance of hitting mafia. If no kill, it's a 0/30 chance.
We still believe the 'Oxford comma' is a way for the Beast to hide its communications.
1 2 3 not it
I agree! But it's apparent I disagree with the common wisdom on what "a good vig" means.
I don't think I've seen anyone actually "play vig well" without basically being carried by other specials and players, yeah.
What are the chances of hitting someone important on the village side?
I really don't like how you frame those probabilities. Especially since the mafia can undermine the vote in the thread or instigate a bandwagon. A blind village kill is highly more probable to benefit the mafia than it is us.
Critical Failures - Havenhold Campaign • August St. Cloud (Human Ranger)
Extending the game longer with no kills isn't going to actually benefit us since we get no death info without a likely special reveal and there is no network that can work to ferret Mafia out.
you're not doing the scuttling thing anymore?
I'm a bit disappointed...
Critical Failures - Havenhold Campaign • August St. Cloud (Human Ranger)
Mathematically speaking, it's beneficial for the village to swing out. They have a lower percentage chance of hitting somebody important village side, and every hit on the mafia side hurts a lot more.
I do everything well.
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i can only believe that pursuing our options will eventually lead to some form of understanding.
I went infiltrator vig in the Prinny faction phalla, to the chagrin of my entire prinny team who didn't have contact with me for most of the game.
We won.
So it was definitely without support.
The Monster Baru Cormorant - Seth Dickinson
Steam: Korvalain
Confusion will be my epitaph
Moridin coming out as the Walrus or the Eggman?
...or both?
Confusion will be my epitaph
Official votal:
Execute:
corvidae (MamaWolf)
Gizzy (kime, Grunt's Ghosts)
Grunt's Ghosts (Gizzy, corvidae, Moridin889, Preda)
Kilnaga (Auralynx, Raiden333, JPants, discrider)
kime (ObiFett)
MagicPrime (38thdoe, AustinP0027, Cythraul, Brody, chamberlain, JusticeForPluto)
Moridin889 (Green)
ObiFett (WACriminal)
Don't Execute Anybody (Kilnaga)
Not Voting (nobody! Gold stars all around.)
Amulet:
discrider (discrider, MagicPrime)
Grunt's Ghosts (JusticeForPluto, Grunt's Ghosts)
JPants (Preda, JPants, Raiden333)
Kilnaga (Kilnaga)
kime (kime)
MamaWolf (MamaWolf)
Moridin889 (Moridin889)
not voting: (voting on the amulet is optional)
Gizzy, 38thdoe, Auralynx, ObiFett, Green, premium, WACriminal, Cythraul, corvidae, chamberlain
Oh hey, someone else wants me to have the Amulet.
@Gizzy @38thDoe @Auralynx @ObiFett @Green @premium @WACriminal @Cythraul @corvidae @chamberlain
You know you want to give me an Amulet of Power. I'm fun and you can trust me when I say I'm lying. And I made Kime into a dinosaur demon and am willing to turn other people into dinomons too. You know you want to own a dinomon, so vote for me. I'm way better than Trump!
i already voted for you to get the amulet.
it's the amulet of justice.
it's shaped like a noose, and it's casually hanging from this tree branch.
try it on for size, make sure it fits.
We have been through this before. It didn't work last time, it won't work again.
Now, for that Amulet vote for dinomon?
So... you're not fun then?
You can ask them if I'm fun or not.
It read like you were lying about being fun :rotate:
i don't think it was fun. and i was on his side for that game.
personally, i think he really blew the mafia's chances.... cause if you're evil, and can't die..... you know what you shouldn't do? go blab to everyone that you're evil and can't die. You're supposed to be a distraction,and a magnet for attention. you know what gets no attention? that guy on the street corner shouting "look at me!"
and your roleplaying is half-assed.
yeah, i said it.
Eh.
I got voted out as an Athan thrice in a game, so I'm not so sure being a huge distraction is bad after you've been outed.