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[Phalla] Fryhunt! Day 6 / GAME OVER

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Posts

  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious Registered User regular
    JPants wrote: »
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    Actually, whatever, wolf was scum.

    I don't think insanity actually is related to ability reliability, though, weird as that sounds.

    I assumed Mama was the mafia since disc was almost certainly village.

    What makes you think insanity isn't related to ability? If it doesn't that would mean GG (village) was wrong and 38th is lying. If it doesn't have to do with abilities then that means 38th has been lying the whole game.

    Why does it mean 38th was lying but GG was wrong?

  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    38th and GG both said that it had to to with the powers not acting as stated. We know GG was village (since Austin was able to shoot N2, on top of JFP's claim that no scum had died by start of D3) so GG wouldn't lie.

    Did you get any info about discrider? 38th also claimed he was sane.

  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    JPants wrote: »
    38th and GG both said that it had to to with the powers not acting as stated. We know GG was village (since Austin was able to shoot N2, on top of JFP's claim that no scum had died by start of D3) so GG wouldn't lie.

    Did you get any info about discrider? 38th also claimed he was sane.

    Assuming, of course, that Austin is village and not lying. But that seems reasonable enough, probably.

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  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    kime wrote: »
    JPants wrote: »
    38th and GG both said that it had to to with the powers not acting as stated. We know GG was village (since Austin was able to shoot N2, on top of JFP's claim that no scum had died by start of D3) so GG wouldn't lie.

    Did you get any info about discrider? 38th also claimed he was sane.

    Assuming, of course, that Austin is village and not lying. But that seems reasonable enough, probably.

    True. He could be the SK with some other restriction on his shot (that would explain him not firing night 1.

  • 38thDoe38thDoe lets never be stupid again wait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered User regular
    I'm thinking there is no sk.



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    MrTLicious
  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious Registered User regular
    JPants wrote: »
    38th and GG both said that it had to to with the powers not acting as stated. We know GG was village (since Austin was able to shoot N2, on top of JFP's claim that no scum had died by start of D3) so GG wouldn't lie.

    Did you get any info about discrider? 38th also claimed he was sane.

    I will check with host; it's possible there's just a negation missing from my PM which would actually make a lot of sense.

    Discrider did not appear insane, though I don't actually get a sanity reading. I am inferring that GG was insane from the way his result was worded. Discrider had the whisper ability which I assume is how you confirmed his ability? I actually missed that part.

  • Raiden333Raiden333 Registered User regular
    I agree that I don't think there's an SK. If there is, they're laying pretty damn low.

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  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    JPants wrote: »
    38th and GG both said that it had to to with the powers not acting as stated. We know GG was village (since Austin was able to shoot N2, on top of JFP's claim that no scum had died by start of D3) so GG wouldn't lie.

    Did you get any info about discrider? 38th also claimed he was sane.

    I will check with host; it's possible there's just a negation missing from my PM which would actually make a lot of sense.

    Discrider did not appear insane, though I don't actually get a sanity reading. I am inferring that GG was insane from the way his result was worded. Discrider had the whisper ability which I assume is how you confirmed his ability? I actually missed that part.

    Yes, that's how we confirmed disc's role. Also 38th seered him as sane.

    GG being insane matches up with assumptions because his sanity seering on chamberlain disagreed with 38th.

  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious Registered User regular
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    JPants wrote: »
    38th and GG both said that it had to to with the powers not acting as stated. We know GG was village (since Austin was able to shoot N2, on top of JFP's claim that no scum had died by start of D3) so GG wouldn't lie.

    Did you get any info about discrider? 38th also claimed he was sane.

    I will check with host; it's possible there's just a negation missing from my PM which would actually make a lot of sense.

    Discrider did not appear insane, though I don't actually get a sanity reading. I am inferring that GG was insane from the way his result was worded. Discrider had the whisper ability which I assume is how you confirmed his ability? I actually missed that part.

    Oh wait, I get it. Since he was insane, the message that sanity doesn't flip powers was wrong.

    Logic hurts my brain.

  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    JPants wrote: »
    38th and GG both said that it had to to with the powers not acting as stated. We know GG was village (since Austin was able to shoot N2, on top of JFP's claim that no scum had died by start of D3) so GG wouldn't lie.

    Did you get any info about discrider? 38th also claimed he was sane.

    I will check with host; it's possible there's just a negation missing from my PM which would actually make a lot of sense.

    Discrider did not appear insane, though I don't actually get a sanity reading. I am inferring that GG was insane from the way his result was worded. Discrider had the whisper ability which I assume is how you confirmed his ability? I actually missed that part.

    Oh wait, I get it. Since he was insane, the message that sanity doesn't flip powers was wrong.

    Logic hurts my brain.

    Now you've lost me.

  • BrodyBrody The Watch The First ShoreRegistered User regular
    I don't think either of the sanity seers got a definition of what insanity does, just the knowledge that they could check for it. After some discussion in thread, we came to the conclusion that unintended results were the most likely outcome.

    "I will write your name in the ruin of them. I will paint you across history in the color of their blood."

    The Monster Baru Cormorant - Seth Dickinson
  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious Registered User regular
    JPants wrote: »
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    JPants wrote: »
    38th and GG both said that it had to to with the powers not acting as stated. We know GG was village (since Austin was able to shoot N2, on top of JFP's claim that no scum had died by start of D3) so GG wouldn't lie.

    Did you get any info about discrider? 38th also claimed he was sane.

    I will check with host; it's possible there's just a negation missing from my PM which would actually make a lot of sense.

    Discrider did not appear insane, though I don't actually get a sanity reading. I am inferring that GG was insane from the way his result was worded. Discrider had the whisper ability which I assume is how you confirmed his ability? I actually missed that part.

    Oh wait, I get it. Since he was insane, the message that sanity doesn't flip powers was wrong.

    Logic hurts my brain.

    Now you've lost me.

    It would make sense if I could paste results. Bottom line: I done goofed. Carry on with insanity = role does not work as advertised.

    JPants
  • ObiFettObiFett Use the Force As You WishRegistered User regular
    Also, if MP IS village, then pretty confident Obi is mafia given he's pushed the MP vote everyday.

    Yeah, thats not how logic works. Unless you mean to say that villagers don't ever, or even regularly, push votes onto other villagers

    I still stand by my reasoning in voting for MP. I think once it gets to endgame that people need to seriously look hard at those who avoided the wagon, since its the mafia that would have the most to lose by being on that wagon if it won.

    As far as the seer results, that seems pretty OP, so I think there has to be more at play. Especially because if discrider really did die green, then I know the results are wrong. I guess he could have been mafia/sk killed by sk/mafia, but with the messages and stuff I'd be inclined to say he was village.

    Either MP is anti-village, discrider is anti-village, or JPants is insane which could mean a million other different things. If we could see death results, I would volunteer to die tonight so that we could confirm the seer result situation, which would let us know which of MP or Aura/Chamberlain to investigate next.

    I think the best way to get information would be to have Jpants seer Brody + [Me, MP, Aura, or Chamberlain] and then kill Brody the following night. It would give us perfect knowledge about what the previous results meant as well as JPants seer ability in general, which I think is the most dangerous (to us if its insane or to the mafia if its sane) ability out there.

    I still think we should vote out MP tonight. Force the mafia to roll the dice on losing one of their own. They are definitely more than 20% of the population right now. Its the best time to do it.

  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    If we want a vote target, it needs to happen soon. Most of the village is set to vote for nobody to confirm Burnage's kill I think.

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  • ObiFettObiFett Use the Force As You WishRegistered User regular
    If we are gonna do No vote target, then fine.

    But I think that Phyphor should use his ability on Brody and Jpants should use Brody plus one of the previously seered results to confirm the sanity/insanity of what he got.

  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    JPants is unable to target the same people twice. So I can't target Obi again.

  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    So, honest question, what's with the whole Phyphor = Burnage thing that multiple people have had... mafia scum?

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  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    JPants wrote: »
    JPants is unable to target the same people twice. So I can't target Obi again.

    Incidentally that is why my ability is not OP. Useful, sure, but only in conjunction with other villagers (which is the design intent of this whole game I think).

  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious Registered User regular
    Right now I think JPants as insane is most plausible from a design standpoint (takes the village figuring that out to be useful, which if we weren't think coordinated would have taken an error), but that still gives us a crapload of information once confirmed.

  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    ObiFett wrote: »
    Also, if MP IS village, then pretty confident Obi is mafia given he's pushed the MP vote everyday.

    Yeah, thats not how logic works. Unless you mean to say that villagers don't ever, or even regularly, push votes onto other villagers

    I still stand by my reasoning in voting for MP. I think once it gets to endgame that people need to seriously look hard at those who avoided the wagon, since its the mafia that would have the most to lose by being on that wagon if it won.

    As far as the seer results, that seems pretty OP, so I think there has to be more at play. Especially because if discrider really did die green, then I know the results are wrong. I guess he could have been mafia/sk killed by sk/mafia, but with the messages and stuff I'd be inclined to say he was village.

    Either MP is anti-village, discrider is anti-village, or JPants is insane which could mean a million other different things. If we could see death results, I would volunteer to die tonight so that we could confirm the seer result situation, which would let us know which of MP or Aura/Chamberlain to investigate next.

    I think the best way to get information would be to have Jpants seer Brody + [Me, MP, Aura, or Chamberlain] and then kill Brody the following night. It would give us perfect knowledge about what the previous results meant as well as JPants seer ability in general, which I think is the most dangerous (to us if its insane or to the mafia if its sane) ability out there.

    I still think we should vote out MP tonight. Force the mafia to roll the dice on losing one of their own. They are definitely more than 20% of the population right now. Its the best time to do it.

    Also if MP is village then yes, you are anti-village because that means I'm sane, and you're the opposite of discrider (who I agree was very village). If MP is anti-village then you are village (because i'd be insane and my results would be opposite. I don't think it's worth pursuing the idea that if I am insane my ability does something else entirely because then it would be useless).

  • BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    kime wrote: »
    So, honest question, what's with the whole Phyphor = Burnage thing that multiple people have had... mafia scum?

    Has anyone done it but Obi? I'm worried it's a message of some kind but if he's the only one saying it I'm not sure we can infer too much.

  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    Right now I think JPants as insane is most plausible from a design standpoint (takes the village figuring that out to be useful, which if we weren't think coordinated would have taken an error), but that still gives us a crapload of information once confirmed.

    Why is me insane more plausible than me sane? Or did you mean more plausible than something else?

  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    Burnage wrote: »
    kime wrote: »
    So, honest question, what's with the whole Phyphor = Burnage thing that multiple people have had... mafia scum?

    Has anyone done it but Obi? I'm worried it's a message of some kind but if he's the only one saying it I'm not sure we can infer too much.

    I've only seen Obi do it. I think Obi is just confused by the avatar or something?

  • BrodyBrody The Watch The First ShoreRegistered User regular
    Has @premium still not revealed?

    "I will write your name in the ruin of them. I will paint you across history in the color of their blood."

    The Monster Baru Cormorant - Seth Dickinson
  • ObiFettObiFett Use the Force As You WishRegistered User regular
    JPants wrote: »
    ObiFett wrote: »
    Also, if MP IS village, then pretty confident Obi is mafia given he's pushed the MP vote everyday.

    Yeah, thats not how logic works. Unless you mean to say that villagers don't ever, or even regularly, push votes onto other villagers

    I still stand by my reasoning in voting for MP. I think once it gets to endgame that people need to seriously look hard at those who avoided the wagon, since its the mafia that would have the most to lose by being on that wagon if it won.

    As far as the seer results, that seems pretty OP, so I think there has to be more at play. Especially because if discrider really did die green, then I know the results are wrong. I guess he could have been mafia/sk killed by sk/mafia, but with the messages and stuff I'd be inclined to say he was village.

    Either MP is anti-village, discrider is anti-village, or JPants is insane which could mean a million other different things. If we could see death results, I would volunteer to die tonight so that we could confirm the seer result situation, which would let us know which of MP or Aura/Chamberlain to investigate next.

    I think the best way to get information would be to have Jpants seer Brody + [Me, MP, Aura, or Chamberlain] and then kill Brody the following night. It would give us perfect knowledge about what the previous results meant as well as JPants seer ability in general, which I think is the most dangerous (to us if its insane or to the mafia if its sane) ability out there.

    I still think we should vote out MP tonight. Force the mafia to roll the dice on losing one of their own. They are definitely more than 20% of the population right now. Its the best time to do it.

    Also if MP is village then yes, you are anti-village because that means I'm sane, and you're the opposite of discrider (who I agree was very village). If MP is anti-village then you are village (because i'd be insane and my results would be opposite. I don't think it's worth pursuing the idea that if I am insane my ability does something else entirely because then it would be useless).

    I don't think the bolded is true either, because getting the exact opposite results as insane would still mean you could learn the alignments of people since all you'd have to do is negate your results.

    If you are insane then I think your results would just be truly random.

  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    JPants wrote: »
    Burnage wrote: »
    kime wrote: »
    So, honest question, what's with the whole Phyphor = Burnage thing that multiple people have had... mafia scum?

    Has anyone done it but Obi? I'm worried it's a message of some kind but if he's the only one saying it I'm not sure we can infer too much.

    I've only seen Obi do it. I think Obi is just confused by the avatar or something?

    Didn't someone else do it earlier in the day? It's entirely possible that was also Obi, I don't remember who it was. I just assumed the same person wouldn't do it twice :P

    Similar avatars would explain it a bit

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  • BrodyBrody The Watch The First ShoreRegistered User regular
    Nevermind, I see that he has.

    "I will write your name in the ruin of them. I will paint you across history in the color of their blood."

    The Monster Baru Cormorant - Seth Dickinson
  • ObiFettObiFett Use the Force As You WishRegistered User regular
    JPants wrote: »
    Burnage wrote: »
    kime wrote: »
    So, honest question, what's with the whole Phyphor = Burnage thing that multiple people have had... mafia scum?

    Has anyone done it but Obi? I'm worried it's a message of some kind but if he's the only one saying it I'm not sure we can infer too much.

    I've only seen Obi do it. I think Obi is just confused by the avatar or something?

    Are you talking about Phyphor's avatar? I know full and well what his avatar looks like. clearly

  • BrodyBrody The Watch The First ShoreRegistered User regular
    Screw it, I vote for Moridin as Judge target.

    "I will write your name in the ruin of them. I will paint you across history in the color of their blood."

    The Monster Baru Cormorant - Seth Dickinson
  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    ObiFett wrote: »
    JPants wrote: »
    ObiFett wrote: »
    Also, if MP IS village, then pretty confident Obi is mafia given he's pushed the MP vote everyday.

    Yeah, thats not how logic works. Unless you mean to say that villagers don't ever, or even regularly, push votes onto other villagers

    I still stand by my reasoning in voting for MP. I think once it gets to endgame that people need to seriously look hard at those who avoided the wagon, since its the mafia that would have the most to lose by being on that wagon if it won.

    As far as the seer results, that seems pretty OP, so I think there has to be more at play. Especially because if discrider really did die green, then I know the results are wrong. I guess he could have been mafia/sk killed by sk/mafia, but with the messages and stuff I'd be inclined to say he was village.

    Either MP is anti-village, discrider is anti-village, or JPants is insane which could mean a million other different things. If we could see death results, I would volunteer to die tonight so that we could confirm the seer result situation, which would let us know which of MP or Aura/Chamberlain to investigate next.

    I think the best way to get information would be to have Jpants seer Brody + [Me, MP, Aura, or Chamberlain] and then kill Brody the following night. It would give us perfect knowledge about what the previous results meant as well as JPants seer ability in general, which I think is the most dangerous (to us if its insane or to the mafia if its sane) ability out there.

    I still think we should vote out MP tonight. Force the mafia to roll the dice on losing one of their own. They are definitely more than 20% of the population right now. Its the best time to do it.

    Also if MP is village then yes, you are anti-village because that means I'm sane, and you're the opposite of discrider (who I agree was very village). If MP is anti-village then you are village (because i'd be insane and my results would be opposite. I don't think it's worth pursuing the idea that if I am insane my ability does something else entirely because then it would be useless).

    I don't think the bolded is true either, because getting the exact opposite results as insane would still mean you could learn the alignments of people since all you'd have to do is negate your results.

    If you are insane then I think your results would just be truly random.

    It's not a given that insane means opposite, however I don't think it's a stretch of an assumption given that we have seen two people with the same ability, one sane, one insane, and their results were opposite. Plus the way my results are worded, if there was a part of my results that is "unreliable" it is VERY clear what part that is and it would mean my ability would be backwards. Can't copy results to show you what I mean but it's probably pretty clear from that description.

    The only "not opposite" version of my ability that makes mechanical sense would be if it was actually comparing the sanity state for people which would mean that MPrime is insane, Aura is sane, and you are insane. But that path lies uselessness so if we assume that we might as well be saying "ignore all JPants results" and what fun is that?

  • 38thDoe38thDoe lets never be stupid again wait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered User regular
    @Phyphor Why are you Burnage?



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  • ObiFettObiFett Use the Force As You WishRegistered User regular
    I definitely do not think we should ignore your results because its the best information we've got so far.

    But I know I'm village and what that means for your results is that discrider is mafia/sk, MP is village and one of Aura/Chamberlain are mafia/sk.

    And that doesn't make sense because I am still convinced that MP is an anti-village role.

  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious Registered User regular
    JPants wrote: »
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    Right now I think JPants as insane is most plausible from a design standpoint (takes the village figuring that out to be useful, which if we weren't think coordinated would have taken an error), but that still gives us a crapload of information once confirmed.

    Why is me insane more plausible than me sane? Or did you mean more plausible than something else?

    Certainly than something else, but I meant in terms of power level in design. Because if we get down to guessing, and I as a designer want to punish guessing, then I will make you insane, because behavioral biases make us (especially the person with the information) default to sane, so that would likely be our guess if it came down to it.

    Also, statistically, a true same is more likely than a true different. Since you have 2 differents and 1 same, the likelihood that you are insane is higher than whatever your priors were at game start.

  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    JPants wrote: »
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    Right now I think JPants as insane is most plausible from a design standpoint (takes the village figuring that out to be useful, which if we weren't think coordinated would have taken an error), but that still gives us a crapload of information once confirmed.

    Why is me insane more plausible than me sane? Or did you mean more plausible than something else?

    Certainly than something else, but I meant in terms of power level in design. Because if we get down to guessing, and I as a designer want to punish guessing, then I will make you insane, because behavioral biases make us (especially the person with the information) default to sane, so that would likely be our guess if it came down to it.

    Also, statistically, a true same is more likely than a true different. Since you have 2 differents and 1 same, the likelihood that you are insane is higher than whatever your priors were at game start.

    Day 1 i targeted the 2nd and 3rd place. Figured if one was mafia that'd be good to know. Day 2 and 3 i specifically tried to pair up people that I suspected were opposites. So i'm not sure the statistic argument holds water since that's based on pure RNG.

    I take your point about defaulting to Sane. That is definitely how I've been operating up to now.

  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious Registered User regular
    ObiFett wrote: »
    I definitely do not think we should ignore your results because its the best information we've got so far.

    But I know I'm village and what that means for your results is that discrider is mafia/sk, MP is village and one of Aura/Chamberlain are mafia/sk.

    And that doesn't make sense because I am still convinced that MP is an anti-village role.

    You have this wrong. If JPants is insane then MP is bad guy.

    JPants
  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    So basically we need a "fool proof" way to figure out if I'm sane or not, even if I don't live past tonight. One part of that is obviously having 38th sanity seer me.

    If 38th' gets taken out however, we need another way. I'm thinking of comparing Raiden and Brody.... Though Brody could be lying. Sadly there's no one else I'm sure is village (still alive).

  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious Registered User regular
    JPants wrote: »
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    JPants wrote: »
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    Right now I think JPants as insane is most plausible from a design standpoint (takes the village figuring that out to be useful, which if we weren't think coordinated would have taken an error), but that still gives us a crapload of information once confirmed.

    Why is me insane more plausible than me sane? Or did you mean more plausible than something else?

    Certainly than something else, but I meant in terms of power level in design. Because if we get down to guessing, and I as a designer want to punish guessing, then I will make you insane, because behavioral biases make us (especially the person with the information) default to sane, so that would likely be our guess if it came down to it.

    Also, statistically, a true same is more likely than a true different. Since you have 2 differents and 1 same, the likelihood that you are insane is higher than whatever your priors were at game start.

    Day 1 i targeted the 2nd and 3rd place. Figured if one was mafia that'd be good to know. Day 2 and 3 i specifically tried to pair up people that I suspected were opposites. So i'm not sure the statistic argument holds water since that's based on pure RNG.

    I take your point about defaulting to Sane. That is definitely how I've been operating up to now.

    How much better than RNG do you think your hunches are? :)

  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    JPants wrote: »
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    JPants wrote: »
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    Right now I think JPants as insane is most plausible from a design standpoint (takes the village figuring that out to be useful, which if we weren't think coordinated would have taken an error), but that still gives us a crapload of information once confirmed.

    Why is me insane more plausible than me sane? Or did you mean more plausible than something else?

    Certainly than something else, but I meant in terms of power level in design. Because if we get down to guessing, and I as a designer want to punish guessing, then I will make you insane, because behavioral biases make us (especially the person with the information) default to sane, so that would likely be our guess if it came down to it.

    Also, statistically, a true same is more likely than a true different. Since you have 2 differents and 1 same, the likelihood that you are insane is higher than whatever your priors were at game start.

    Day 1 i targeted the 2nd and 3rd place. Figured if one was mafia that'd be good to know. Day 2 and 3 i specifically tried to pair up people that I suspected were opposites. So i'm not sure the statistic argument holds water since that's based on pure RNG.

    I take your point about defaulting to Sane. That is definitely how I've been operating up to now.

    How much better than RNG do you think your hunches are? :)

    After 3 or 6 villagers dying? I guess we'll see after the game.

    On the plus side, if one of the folks i've targeted is the SK, the mafia probably know who it is and can take them out.

  • BrodyBrody The Watch The First ShoreRegistered User regular
    JPants wrote: »
    So basically we need a "fool proof" way to figure out if I'm sane or not, even if I don't live past tonight. One part of that is obviously having 38th sanity seer me.

    If 38th' gets taken out however, we need another way. I'm thinking of comparing Raiden and Brody.... Though Brody could be lying. Sadly there's no one else I'm sure is village (still alive).

    I'm totally fine with dying for sake of the win, just as long as we make sure it does something useful.

    "I will write your name in the ruin of them. I will paint you across history in the color of their blood."

    The Monster Baru Cormorant - Seth Dickinson
  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 Registered User regular
    JPants wrote: »
    Sadly there's no one else I'm sure is village (still alive).

    Uh, Hi.

    Yeah I get it, SK concerns but a SK with no Vig? Seems unlikely

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