As a general rule of political thumb I always believe the best thing to do is see what Paul Ryan does and then do the exact opposite,” scoffed a second Republican official loyal to the Senate side. “Everyone on that side of the Hill is playing checkers.
ha ha ha damn
I mean I know that the Senate looks down on the House, but that's vicious
Please oh please let Clinton get 400+ electoral votes.
Mathematically, how quickly can she get to 270? At what point can you be declared a winner before mid- and western states start reporting?
They probably won't call it until California closes at 11pm est. Theoretically she could get to 270 with states closing at 8pm EST or earlier but it would almost require Texas and they wouldn't call all those states immediately.
SteevLWhat can I do for you?Registered Userregular
I'm planning on early voting sometime this week and looking forward to getting that over with here in Illinois. I still need to look at some of the downticket stuff. I really wish we could vote Rauner out this year, but that's something better discussed in the downticket thread.
Please oh please let Clinton get 400+ electoral votes.
Mathematically, how quickly can she get to 270? At what point can you be declared a winner before mid- and western states start reporting?
pretty sure she can be unofficially called after florida reports
All it will really take is for Hillary to take some of the eastern swing states that Trump absolutely must win. Once those reports begin the news outlets can start connecting the dots.
right, because of the panhandle, when florida reports we'll know the results from PA, VA, NC, OH and FL. If those are all victories you can call it. Honestly I think with Clinton winning 3/5 of those you'd just call it
People are obviously not enthusiastic about voting for Clinton.
The media has studiously ignored that Clinton voter enthusiasm has been higher in essentially every poll in both the primary and the general. Think of how many features there's been on profiling Sanders, Trump and NeverTrump Republican voters, and how few on Clinton voters.
Hmm, I wonder if that has anything to do with the demographic makeup of the different voters.
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LudiousI just wanted a sandwich A temporally dislocated QuiznosRegistered Userregular
So I know a lot of politicians are narcissists, but Trump is acute, if not terminal. How does someone like that react to such a public thrashing? Is there any data or case study on severe reactions of people like that? Like a medical journal or something
So I know a lot of politicians are narcissists, but Trump is acute, if not terminal. How does someone like that react to such a public thrashing? Is there any data or case study on severe reactions of people like that? Like a medical journal or something
So I know a lot of politicians are narcissists, but Trump is acute, if not terminal. How does someone like that react to such a public thrashing? Is there any data or case study on severe reactions of people like that? Like a medical journal or something
Blame, excuse and/or denial
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GoodKingJayIIIThey wanna get mygold on the ceilingRegistered Userregular
So I know a lot of politicians are narcissists, but Trump is acute, if not terminal. How does someone like that react to such a public thrashing? Is there any data or case study on severe reactions of people like that? Like a medical journal or something
The two presidential candidates may be more unpopular than any in history, but Washington residents are as eager as they’ve ever been to cast a ballot in this year’s election.
On Monday, for the second day in a row, the state set a record for most voter registrations on one day.
Monday’s total was 27,601 online registrations, the Secretary of State’s Office said.
The previous one-day record, a little more than 23,000, was set on Sunday.
Both those numbers smash the previous one-day record, of about 13,000, which was set last spring when Facebook prompted users to register to vote.
Monday was the deadline for residents to register to vote online or by mail. Prospective voters can still register to vote in person, at county election offices, until Oct. 31.
Monday’s registration surge pushed the number of registered voters in Washington above 4.2 million, also a record.
So I know a lot of politicians are narcissists, but Trump is acute, if not terminal. How does someone like that react to such a public thrashing? Is there any data or case study on severe reactions of people like that? Like a medical journal or something
The typical reaction to a narcissitic injury is either denial or rage. Trump will probably do both.
I'm planning on early voting sometime this week and looking forward to getting that over with here in Illinois. I still need to look at some of the downticket stuff. I really wish we could vote Rauner out this year, but that's something better discussed in the downticket thread.
Seriously. How much longer do we have to deal with Rauner?!?! Luckily there was a good interview with Duckworth this morning on NPR so hopefully that keeps people coming out
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
Yeah I mean they call California way before polls close, don't they?
They typically avoid officially calling anywhere before that state's polls close but there isn't any doubt of which way New York is going to go, for example. So those tend to get called at like 9:01 PM, right after polls close.
If we're lucky we'll get to hear people on the West Coast bitch about knowing their votes don't matter because they've already declared a winner.
Except this year their job is to pile on as much icing to the cake as possible.
Pussy Riot was a punk band that held underground concerts and was charged with Hooliganism. As I recall they were convicted but maybe one of them got off on a technicality or something? It was basically an importance of free-speech moment for a lot of people when the whole thing got widespread attention.
Even knowing all of that, I am not sure what that could be compared to with the Trump campaign, except funny use of the word pussy(ies).
Edit: Looking it up they were very strong feminists who were put in jail. I guess that makes more sense.
Please oh please let Clinton get 400+ electoral votes.
Mathematically, how quickly can she get to 270? At what point can you be declared a winner before mid- and western states start reporting?
If you just want to know whether she's winning or not... as early as 7pm Eastern. Here's a cool chart I found from 2008 that shows what time states were called:
In 2008 at 7 PM, McCain only had one state (KY) called for him. GA, IN, SC and VA were all "too close to call". And that's the tipoff that Obama is doing very well. If we see a repeat of that, Trump is done.
You basically get extra confidence as the night goes on. Pennsylvania will be pretty solid around 8-830ish.
Extra states being called for Trump early would be the bad news. Otherwise it'll probably be after 9 when one of the critical states gets called (NC, FL, OH).
Please oh please let Clinton get 400+ electoral votes.
Mathematically, how quickly can she get to 270? At what point can you be declared a winner before mid- and western states start reporting?
If you just want to know whether she's winning or not... as early as 7pm Eastern. Here's a cool chart I found from 2008 that shows what time states were called:
In 2008 at 7 PM, McCain only had one state (KY) called for him. GA, IN, SC and VA were all "too close to call". And that's the tipoff that Obama is doing very well. If we see a repeat of that, Trump is done.
You basically get extra confidence as the night goes on. Pennsylvania will be pretty solid around 8-830ish.
Extra states being called for Trump early would be the bad news. Otherwise it'll probably be after 9 when one of the critical states gets called (NC, FL, OH).
So she could theoretically win before polls close in California? That would not be great for turnout here.
Travis County reached a voter registration milestone ahead of this year’s presidential election. Local election officials set a goal after the 2012 election to have 90 percent of the county registered. As of yesterday, officials met that goal.
“Ninety percent of Travis County eligible citizens are registered to vote for the first time in recent history – maybe ever,” said Bruce Elfant, Travis County’s voter registrar.
For reference, Travis county contains Austin, TX and is the fifth most populous county in the state.
To be fair, the race has shifted from a disturbingly close race into a bizarre and ugly disaster for the GOP
Well, I mean, the big orange asteroid was already flying towards GOPville, but now it's actually impacting
Of course the media coverage is changing to fit it
A trap is for fish: when you've got the fish, you can forget the trap. A snare is for rabbits: when you've got the rabbit, you can forget the snare. Words are for meaning: when you've got the meaning, you can forget the words.
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LudiousI just wanted a sandwich A temporally dislocated QuiznosRegistered Userregular
TBF krugman was being pretty negative just last week re: the election so wrt him personally it's a sea change in attitude
Trump is so damn gullible. Stern is so transparently trying to get him to say more and more awful shit and Donald is just clueless.
Think what you will of Howard Stern, he is actually a remarkable interviewer.
His general strategy is to say some bombastic shock-jock shit to get people off their guard, so that when he dials it back to reasonable people are somewhat disarmed and are willing to talk about stuff they wouldn't elsewhere.
It turns out that when you talk to a literal garbage person, it doesn't matter how terrible you get, he just keeps one upping you.
SW-4158-3990-6116
Let's play Mario Kart or something...
Please oh please let Clinton get 400+ electoral votes.
Mathematically, how quickly can she get to 270? At what point can you be declared a winner before mid- and western states start reporting?
If you just want to know whether she's winning or not... as early as 7pm Eastern. Here's a cool chart I found from 2008 that shows what time states were called:
In 2008 at 7 PM, McCain only had one state (KY) called for him. GA, IN, SC and VA were all "too close to call". And that's the tipoff that Obama is doing very well. If we see a repeat of that, Trump is done.
You basically get extra confidence as the night goes on. Pennsylvania will be pretty solid around 8-830ish.
Extra states being called for Trump early would be the bad news. Otherwise it'll probably be after 9 when one of the critical states gets called (NC, FL, OH).
So she could theoretically win before polls close in California? That would not be great for turnout here.
At a guess, it's because we're comparing a Portland that was all for Obama to a Portland that thinks Clinton stole the primary from Sanders.
You probably don't see that as you go further south on the west coast (and the country generally) because there are more non-white people there to counteract it.
That tracks. That little blob of red in the Bay Area is Santa Cruz. Actually surprised Santa Clara County isn't also trending that way, good job Mexicans, fuck you tech bros.
Sorry, no, even white males in tech are not Trump supporters.
Please oh please let Clinton get 400+ electoral votes.
Mathematically, how quickly can she get to 270? At what point can you be declared a winner before mid- and western states start reporting?
If you just want to know whether she's winning or not... as early as 7pm Eastern. Here's a cool chart I found from 2008 that shows what time states were called:
In 2008 at 7 PM, McCain only had one state (KY) called for him. GA, IN, SC and VA were all "too close to call". And that's the tipoff that Obama is doing very well. If we see a repeat of that, Trump is done.
You basically get extra confidence as the night goes on. Pennsylvania will be pretty solid around 8-830ish.
Extra states being called for Trump early would be the bad news. Otherwise it'll probably be after 9 when one of the critical states gets called (NC, FL, OH).
So she could theoretically win before polls close in California? That would not be great for turnout here.
Theoretically, yeah.
In practice, no, because lots of states don't get called immediately. Even if it did get called before California polls closed, it'd be so close to closing it wouldn't make a difference in practice. If the news comes out 15 minutes before CA polls, either you're already in line, you're already headed over, or you weren't going to vote anyway.
And they aren't going to call the election as a whole until she officially hits 270 in called states, even if a swing state or two gets called early and they know she'll win once polls in the obviously-blue west coast and Hawaii close.
Please oh please let Clinton get 400+ electoral votes.
Mathematically, how quickly can she get to 270? At what point can you be declared a winner before mid- and western states start reporting?
They probably won't call it until California closes at 11pm est. Theoretically she could get to 270 with states closing at 8pm EST or earlier but it would almost require Texas and they wouldn't call all those states immediately.
Yeah I mean they call California way before polls close, don't they?
They will call it immediately on poll close with the understanding that everyone know where its going to go.
Nah, not necessarily. That's not how calls work, even if there's "the understanding that everyone knows" it's going to be blue. They base it off of exit polls and early returns, rather than pre-election night polling or by conventional wisdom of who you know is going to win a state. There's not a lot of exit polling in safe states, so it comes down to how fast they start returning results. A lot of smaller and more homogeneous states will get called right off the bat, bigger ones tend to take a while. They're not going to take all night before calling New York and California, not like they will for Florida, but there'll probably be at least a little wait.
At a guess, it's because we're comparing a Portland that was all for Obama to a Portland that thinks Clinton stole the primary from Sanders.
You probably don't see that as you go further south on the west coast (and the country generally) because there are more non-white people there to counteract it.
That tracks. That little blob of red in the Bay Area is Santa Cruz. Actually surprised Santa Clara County isn't also trending that way, good job Mexicans, fuck you tech bros.
Sorry, no, even white males in tech are not Trump supporters.
The issue is the red areas are "upside." So high Obama areas have more voters for Trump to take and vice versa. It ends up being in large part an inverse map of white partisanship.
At a guess, it's because we're comparing a Portland that was all for Obama to a Portland that thinks Clinton stole the primary from Sanders.
You probably don't see that as you go further south on the west coast (and the country generally) because there are more non-white people there to counteract it.
That tracks. That little blob of red in the Bay Area is Santa Cruz. Actually surprised Santa Clara County isn't also trending that way, good job Mexicans, fuck you tech bros.
Sorry, no, even white males in tech are not Trump supporters.
There's definitely a higher prevalence of them then the people they displaced though, which is why I'm surprised about Santa Cruz being the Bay Area county to start trending Red. The Alt-Right was pretty centered around tech people initially.
At a guess, it's because we're comparing a Portland that was all for Obama to a Portland that thinks Clinton stole the primary from Sanders.
You probably don't see that as you go further south on the west coast (and the country generally) because there are more non-white people there to counteract it.
That tracks. That little blob of red in the Bay Area is Santa Cruz. Actually surprised Santa Clara County isn't also trending that way, good job Mexicans, fuck you tech bros.
Sorry, no, even white males in tech are not Trump supporters.
There's definitely a higher prevalence of them then the people they displaced though, which is why I'm surprised about Santa Cruz being the Bay Area county to start trending Red. The Alt-Right was pretty centered around tech people initially.
My brother lives in Santa Cruz, the Bernie or Bust there is apparently very very strong...which is kind of a bummer.
Posts
ha ha ha damn
I mean I know that the Senate looks down on the House, but that's vicious
They will call it immediately on poll close with the understanding that everyone know where its going to go.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Nice, Florida extends registration deadline.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
I love our Supervisors of Elections.
Johnson can't even get over 15 in Utah? Bahahahaha!
Hmm, I wonder if that has anything to do with the demographic makeup of the different voters.
Here's one writers take: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/11/opinion/donald-trumps-sad-lonely-life.html?_r=0
edit; Well, it's not exactly what you asked, but it's the first thing that came to mind.
Blame, excuse and/or denial
It's always someone else's fault.
Political discourse.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
The typical reaction to a narcissitic injury is either denial or rage. Trump will probably do both.
Seriously. How much longer do we have to deal with Rauner?!?! Luckily there was a good interview with Duckworth this morning on NPR so hopefully that keeps people coming out
Except this year their job is to pile on as much icing to the cake as possible.
How does one get in on this action?
Pussy Riot was a punk band that held underground concerts and was charged with Hooliganism. As I recall they were convicted but maybe one of them got off on a technicality or something? It was basically an importance of free-speech moment for a lot of people when the whole thing got widespread attention.
Even knowing all of that, I am not sure what that could be compared to with the Trump campaign, except funny use of the word pussy(ies).
Edit: Looking it up they were very strong feminists who were put in jail. I guess that makes more sense.
If you just want to know whether she's winning or not... as early as 7pm Eastern. Here's a cool chart I found from 2008 that shows what time states were called:
http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2008/pe2008elecnighttime.php
In 2008 at 7 PM, McCain only had one state (KY) called for him. GA, IN, SC and VA were all "too close to call". And that's the tipoff that Obama is doing very well. If we see a repeat of that, Trump is done.
You basically get extra confidence as the night goes on. Pennsylvania will be pretty solid around 8-830ish.
Extra states being called for Trump early would be the bad news. Otherwise it'll probably be after 9 when one of the critical states gets called (NC, FL, OH).
So she could theoretically win before polls close in California? That would not be great for turnout here.
For reference, Travis county contains Austin, TX and is the fifth most populous county in the state.
To be fair, the race has shifted from a disturbingly close race into a bizarre and ugly disaster for the GOP
Well, I mean, the big orange asteroid was already flying towards GOPville, but now it's actually impacting
Of course the media coverage is changing to fit it
Think what you will of Howard Stern, he is actually a remarkable interviewer.
His general strategy is to say some bombastic shock-jock shit to get people off their guard, so that when he dials it back to reasonable people are somewhat disarmed and are willing to talk about stuff they wouldn't elsewhere.
It turns out that when you talk to a literal garbage person, it doesn't matter how terrible you get, he just keeps one upping you.
Let's play Mario Kart or something...
The news networks waited until 11pm EST when California closed in 2008 (90 seconds in)
And 11:20 pm in 2012
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Florida is becoming a very nice shade of blue, too.
Wish we could go back to that feeling.....
Well fuck. Bad news for Clinton folks, pack it up.
Sorry, no, even white males in tech are not Trump supporters.
Theoretically, yeah.
In practice, no, because lots of states don't get called immediately. Even if it did get called before California polls closed, it'd be so close to closing it wouldn't make a difference in practice. If the news comes out 15 minutes before CA polls, either you're already in line, you're already headed over, or you weren't going to vote anyway.
And they aren't going to call the election as a whole until she officially hits 270 in called states, even if a swing state or two gets called early and they know she'll win once polls in the obviously-blue west coast and Hawaii close.
Nah, not necessarily. That's not how calls work, even if there's "the understanding that everyone knows" it's going to be blue. They base it off of exit polls and early returns, rather than pre-election night polling or by conventional wisdom of who you know is going to win a state. There's not a lot of exit polling in safe states, so it comes down to how fast they start returning results. A lot of smaller and more homogeneous states will get called right off the bat, bigger ones tend to take a while. They're not going to take all night before calling New York and California, not like they will for Florida, but there'll probably be at least a little wait.
The issue is the red areas are "upside." So high Obama areas have more voters for Trump to take and vice versa. It ends up being in large part an inverse map of white partisanship.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
There's definitely a higher prevalence of them then the people they displaced though, which is why I'm surprised about Santa Cruz being the Bay Area county to start trending Red. The Alt-Right was pretty centered around tech people initially.
My brother lives in Santa Cruz, the Bernie or Bust there is apparently very very strong...which is kind of a bummer.