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USA Presidential Election 2016: Fellow Nasty
Sterica
YesRegistered User, Moderator mod
YesRegistered User, Moderator mod
The country that brought you Funyuns is having an election! For president! It's the head of the USA's executive branch, and arguably the most powerful position that any one person on the planet can hold. This kind of election only happens once every four years, so you gotta enjoy it while it lasts! Let's have a good time and talk about all the hilarious ups and downs of this election season. Warning: sometimes it may be less hilarious, and more soul-crushing!
Things to Consider Before Posting
Previously in the POTUS Thread...
Trump's downward spiral continues. At this point, most polls are getting too conservative in their models to allow Clinton much room to go any higher. In particular, 538 has her at a 90% chance to win, and it's doubtful she'll increase much more due to how their statistics work. Nonetheless, she is at a lead that she hasn't seen since April that is extremely advantageous for a candidate to have as we go into the final three weeks of the campaign. Meanwhile, shit kinda continues to stay in a holding pattern: more people accusing Trump of being a predatory sleezeball, and Wikileaks continues to dump emails that fail to impress anyone. Even Trump understands how much of a train wreck he's conducting, as he now seems to be cushioning his ego for a loss as he begins to ramp up accusations of voter fraud.
The final debate happened, and unfortunately it's too soon to declare any clear winner. Early opinions are...not good for Trump, suggesting that he went too negative in what otherwise may have been a draw for him. And even a draw is bad for Trump, as he is doing too poorly in the polls for things to stick the race in neutral with less than three weeks to go. Unless the public sees things WILDLY different, expect Clinton to stay roughly where she is, give or take a few points.
Would you like to know more? Read the previous threads...
In the Blue Corner...
Hillary "Rigged" Clinton
68 Years Old
Former Secretary of State and Senator
Strengths: Huge lead in polls, stellar performance in most swing states (particularly Florida which is all she needs to win), and even competitive in some traditionally red territory. What more is there to say? Clinton's chances are about as high as they can get without Trump being caught red-handed in an immediate crime that even the best spinmasters couldn't tame. Clinton is going into this debate in an incredibly strong position, which takes a lot of the pressure off and let's her take some more risks.
Weaknesses: This is a weird election, and people still don't like Clinton in general. All they need is an excuse, and the polls could turn on her quickly. Also Trump is going in with more ammunition than her, thanks to Wikileaks giving him a broader area of attack than just her accusations from other women. Whether you buy the Wikileaks stuff or not, do not underestimate the Republican party's talent for spinning lies into publicly accepted truths.
Timothy "Buddy" Kaine
58 Years Old
Senator, Former Governor of Virginia and DNC Chair
Strengths: Charismatic and enthused enough to be an asset at rallies. He's also effectively removed Virginia as a battleground state commonwealth.
Weaknesses: VP doesn't have a huge role now, and he's not a huge enough personality to garner THAT much attention.
In the Red Corner...
"Testy" Donald Trump
70 Years Old
he's allowed to run
Strengths: He's a rich, cishet white male.
Weaknesses: Everything else.
Michael "God Why" Pence
57 Years Old
Governor of Indiana
Strengths: Republicans still find him as a reasonable politician, so he's proven his keep as a strategic pick to get all the aging Reaganites on board. For other voters, he's quiet and serious enough to be respected.
Weaknesses: His record is still awful, and Trump keeps painting this picture of Pence as a man who is totally disconnected from the campaign itself.
FAQ
Who are our tragic third-party candidates?
Jill Stein (with running mate Ajamu Baraka) is running on the Green Party ticket, and Gary Johnson (with running mate Bill Weld) is the Libertarian candidate. There's other perennial candidates, such as Vermin Supreme, but I'd be here all day rattling off those.
What's a battleground?
A state that is polling more or less in the middle is considered a battleground. Because solidly Republican or Democratic states would require too much time and money to make even a dent in polls, candidates focus on the handful of states that are feasible to turn. Now, this doesn't mean that voting in a "stronghold" state is pointless. After all, many battleground states were at one point or another considered reliable votes for one party or the other, and people do pay attention to shifts in polls even if the overall outcome hasn't quite changed yet.
States "in play" this election include Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida, and apparently Georgia.
When are the debates?
September 26, 2016
October 4, 2016 (VP)
October 9, 2016
October 19, 2016
Debates are over! Come back in 2020.
Could Trump drop/be removed/etc. from the Republican candidacy?
This will not happen for a variety of reasons. First, Trump has too much ego both in general and tied up in this election to run away from Clinton. It would ruin him, and the Trump legacy would forever be tarnished as a historical footnote that the first female president's opponent had to back out. So forget that. Second, the RNC rules alone forbid this except in cases of death or incapacitated, and even if there weren't a rule it would still hurt voter turnout as conservatives would feel spurned that their primary choice was removed by the accursed establishment. Third, Trump is already on the ballot in many states, and the rules for changing that at this point in the campaign are strict and many states simply wouldn't have the new candidate. Couple this with the trouble of campaigning a wholly new person less than 30 days prior to the election, and...it's not going to happen.
Well if things get worse, what will happen?
Leadership may offer token support or just lip service, but then throw him to the wolves. A candidate that flames out in the home stretch is nothing new to politics, and there are contingency plans to deal with such issues. That mostly just consists of withdrawing most of the support you have for Trump, and then throwing it all into congressional and local elections. At that point it's about damage control, and you're basically conceding the presidency to make sure you don't lose more than that. Paul Ryan seems to have already shifted to this strategy.
Could Pence drop out?
Possible? Yes. Likely? No. If things get worse, then it's not unimaginable that Pence could abandon ship to save his own reputation. I don't think he's at that point yet because, if you DO drop as VP, then you're fucking your party over in a few pointed ways. It shows disarray in the party, a lack of confidence in the candidate that even the party can't hide, a need to find a new running mate and having to waste time/resources on that, and puts a giant negative spotlight on your party when we're at a point in the election where every day counts. It's the closest thing we could get to the Trump campaign losing prior to election day, and the party would never forgive him for that. That's the kind of thing kills your career unless you plan on crossing the aisle to the other party, and hahaha Pence is not becoming a democrat. So it's a matter of what will hurt him more: sticking with Trump or abandoning him? If Trump got REALLY unpopular, like proven murderer unpopular, then the GOP would understand if he got while the getting was good. Otherwise, this rat has to stay on the sinking ship.
When is Election Day?
November 8th, 2016
How long do I have to register to vote?
It varies by state
Time is running on voter registration. Most states have closed registration, but a decent chunk are still taking them. The absolute latest I've seen a state open for registration is the Wednesday prior to Election Day (about six days), and that's like two states so get off your ass and register.
November 8th is kinda busy for me. Can I vote early?
It varies by state, although some states don't allow for early voting at all.
I want to vote from a safe distance. What are my options for citizens abroad?
This should help you out.
Note that this should also be useful for people who are still in the States but will be in another state/city/etc from wherever they're registered come election day.
Things to Consider Before Posting
- Resist the urge to dogpile unpopular sentiments. If it's really inflammatory then report it.
- Just because somebody is/isn't voting doesn't mean they are personally responsible for the downfall of democracy.
- This is SE++ so don't get hung up on derails.
Previously in the POTUS Thread...
Trump's downward spiral continues. At this point, most polls are getting too conservative in their models to allow Clinton much room to go any higher. In particular, 538 has her at a 90% chance to win, and it's doubtful she'll increase much more due to how their statistics work. Nonetheless, she is at a lead that she hasn't seen since April that is extremely advantageous for a candidate to have as we go into the final three weeks of the campaign. Meanwhile, shit kinda continues to stay in a holding pattern: more people accusing Trump of being a predatory sleezeball, and Wikileaks continues to dump emails that fail to impress anyone. Even Trump understands how much of a train wreck he's conducting, as he now seems to be cushioning his ego for a loss as he begins to ramp up accusations of voter fraud.
The final debate happened, and unfortunately it's too soon to declare any clear winner. Early opinions are...not good for Trump, suggesting that he went too negative in what otherwise may have been a draw for him. And even a draw is bad for Trump, as he is doing too poorly in the polls for things to stick the race in neutral with less than three weeks to go. Unless the public sees things WILDLY different, expect Clinton to stay roughly where she is, give or take a few points.
Would you like to know more? Read the previous threads...
- Bad Hair Day
- Over the Hegemony
- Screams from My Father
- Vice Vice Baby
- A Ring of Liar
- A Day at the Racist
- Straight Outta Breitbart
- A Hard Day's Right
- Galoot Debate
- The Kids Are All White
- Mr. Trump in the Iron Lung
- Hard to Scandal
In the Blue Corner...
Hillary "Rigged" Clinton
68 Years Old
Former Secretary of State and Senator
Strengths: Huge lead in polls, stellar performance in most swing states (particularly Florida which is all she needs to win), and even competitive in some traditionally red territory. What more is there to say? Clinton's chances are about as high as they can get without Trump being caught red-handed in an immediate crime that even the best spinmasters couldn't tame. Clinton is going into this debate in an incredibly strong position, which takes a lot of the pressure off and let's her take some more risks.
Weaknesses: This is a weird election, and people still don't like Clinton in general. All they need is an excuse, and the polls could turn on her quickly. Also Trump is going in with more ammunition than her, thanks to Wikileaks giving him a broader area of attack than just her accusations from other women. Whether you buy the Wikileaks stuff or not, do not underestimate the Republican party's talent for spinning lies into publicly accepted truths.
Timothy "Buddy" Kaine
58 Years Old
Senator, Former Governor of Virginia and DNC Chair
Strengths: Charismatic and enthused enough to be an asset at rallies. He's also effectively removed Virginia as a battleground state commonwealth.
Weaknesses: VP doesn't have a huge role now, and he's not a huge enough personality to garner THAT much attention.
In the Red Corner...
"Testy" Donald Trump
70 Years Old
he's allowed to run
Strengths: He's a rich, cishet white male.
Weaknesses: Everything else.
Michael "God Why" Pence
57 Years Old
Governor of Indiana
Strengths: Republicans still find him as a reasonable politician, so he's proven his keep as a strategic pick to get all the aging Reaganites on board. For other voters, he's quiet and serious enough to be respected.
Weaknesses: His record is still awful, and Trump keeps painting this picture of Pence as a man who is totally disconnected from the campaign itself.
FAQ
Who are our tragic third-party candidates?
Jill Stein (with running mate Ajamu Baraka) is running on the Green Party ticket, and Gary Johnson (with running mate Bill Weld) is the Libertarian candidate. There's other perennial candidates, such as Vermin Supreme, but I'd be here all day rattling off those.
What's a battleground?
A state that is polling more or less in the middle is considered a battleground. Because solidly Republican or Democratic states would require too much time and money to make even a dent in polls, candidates focus on the handful of states that are feasible to turn. Now, this doesn't mean that voting in a "stronghold" state is pointless. After all, many battleground states were at one point or another considered reliable votes for one party or the other, and people do pay attention to shifts in polls even if the overall outcome hasn't quite changed yet.
States "in play" this election include Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida, and apparently Georgia.
When are the debates?
September 26, 2016
October 4, 2016 (VP)
October 9, 2016
October 19, 2016
Debates are over! Come back in 2020.
Could Trump drop/be removed/etc. from the Republican candidacy?
This will not happen for a variety of reasons. First, Trump has too much ego both in general and tied up in this election to run away from Clinton. It would ruin him, and the Trump legacy would forever be tarnished as a historical footnote that the first female president's opponent had to back out. So forget that. Second, the RNC rules alone forbid this except in cases of death or incapacitated, and even if there weren't a rule it would still hurt voter turnout as conservatives would feel spurned that their primary choice was removed by the accursed establishment. Third, Trump is already on the ballot in many states, and the rules for changing that at this point in the campaign are strict and many states simply wouldn't have the new candidate. Couple this with the trouble of campaigning a wholly new person less than 30 days prior to the election, and...it's not going to happen.
Well if things get worse, what will happen?
Leadership may offer token support or just lip service, but then throw him to the wolves. A candidate that flames out in the home stretch is nothing new to politics, and there are contingency plans to deal with such issues. That mostly just consists of withdrawing most of the support you have for Trump, and then throwing it all into congressional and local elections. At that point it's about damage control, and you're basically conceding the presidency to make sure you don't lose more than that. Paul Ryan seems to have already shifted to this strategy.
Could Pence drop out?
Possible? Yes. Likely? No. If things get worse, then it's not unimaginable that Pence could abandon ship to save his own reputation. I don't think he's at that point yet because, if you DO drop as VP, then you're fucking your party over in a few pointed ways. It shows disarray in the party, a lack of confidence in the candidate that even the party can't hide, a need to find a new running mate and having to waste time/resources on that, and puts a giant negative spotlight on your party when we're at a point in the election where every day counts. It's the closest thing we could get to the Trump campaign losing prior to election day, and the party would never forgive him for that. That's the kind of thing kills your career unless you plan on crossing the aisle to the other party, and hahaha Pence is not becoming a democrat. So it's a matter of what will hurt him more: sticking with Trump or abandoning him? If Trump got REALLY unpopular, like proven murderer unpopular, then the GOP would understand if he got while the getting was good. Otherwise, this rat has to stay on the sinking ship.
When is Election Day?
November 8th, 2016
How long do I have to register to vote?
It varies by state
Time is running on voter registration. Most states have closed registration, but a decent chunk are still taking them. The absolute latest I've seen a state open for registration is the Wednesday prior to Election Day (about six days), and that's like two states so get off your ass and register.
November 8th is kinda busy for me. Can I vote early?
It varies by state, although some states don't allow for early voting at all.
I want to vote from a safe distance. What are my options for citizens abroad?
This should help you out.
Note that this should also be useful for people who are still in the States but will be in another state/city/etc from wherever they're registered come election day.
Sterica on
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This discussion has been closed.
Posts
Nintendo Switch friend code: SW-4012-4821-3053
The vast majority of them are the type 2. The Hardcore Republicans. So many will just go "aderpy derp but emails Obama NAFTA aglorpaglorp"
They don't like Trump. Many of them genuinely hate him. But what matters to them is voting anything but Republican is unthinkable. Their identities are wrapped up in it. These people are a huge number of Americans and it's awful.
Wrong!
oh that's no accident
(wow that's a really good tagline for that site)
steam | Dokkan: 868846562
or just some slow, dribbling bed-shitting from Trump?
Hillary had a couple good stomps on him.
My favorite was one where she responded to an accusation of "doing nothing for 30 years" by comparing the both of them through the decades.
"In the eighties, I was building schools while you were getting sued," and that sort of thing.
So this makes Tim Kaine Utra Magnus I'm assuming.
Well Trump said he would review the election results at the proper time but not now and would "keep us in suspense" on that issue. Which is to say, if he doesn't win he is going to say it was rigged.
Hilary gave a really good answer to her years of experience and compared and contrasted what she was doing through recent decades with what Donald was doing. Like hey, I was overseas doing work on behalf of our nation while you were hosting your reality show.
So who's Hot Rod?
my heart says Joe Biden
steam | Dokkan: 868846562
like, emotionally, as a person, and physically tired and sore
Duh
Also he announced, in a straightforward manner, that he wasn't prepared to accept the results of the election, which might be a first for the country? At least in the modern era, and in a context like this instead of just rally bluster and whatnot.
My favorite line was Hillary talking about the giant portrait he bought of himself with charity money and dropping a very authentic "Who does that?"
I actually feel all the more confident from watching that debate that the election results are not going to go the way that they cannot be allowed to.
Uh-oh I accidentally deleted my signature. Uh-oh!!
pfft, trump's no unicron
he's more of a
kind of guy
This is why I shield myself by reading people being snarky about it on the internet instead of watching it myself. Because if I watched it myself I might have a panic attack.
And basically refused to address Putin and Assad's role in Aleppo whatsoever.
I assure you my viewing of nasty women being showered in feces is done with the utmost intentionality