IT'S ELECTION DAY!
Welcome to the madness that is the Penny Arcade Election Day thread.
Previously, If You Want to Navel Gaze20122008
There's a map of the closing times in every state. It's a handy resource which I will examine in exhausting detail later on.
Today is finally election day here in these United States. We have had far too many of these threads for this far too long campaign. But here we are at the end. Let's vote!
What is this thread for?
During the day, this thread is for discussing your experience at the polls, what you're seeing, what others are reporting, chiming in to note that you voted and how many other people you dragged to the polls.
It is also for discussing the results as they start coming in during the evening hours.
By its nature as a major breaking news thread about our own experiences, it will be somewhat [chat] like, but do try to keep on topic. Be excellent to each other and don't get it locked.
What are we voting for?
Well, for starters, a little position called the President of the United States.
Our contenders:
Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democratic nominee. Accomplished lawyer, advocate for the rights of women and especially children, former First Lady of both Arkansas and the United States, Senator from New York from 2001 to 2009, Secretary of State from 2009 to 2013. She won a hard fought primary with the independent socialist Senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, and with him has created the most liberal platform in Democratic history. Objectively, she is to the left of her husband and approximately on par with her former boss, Barack Obama. Her campaign has focused on the theme of "Stronger Together" and embracing American diversity. Major points of emphasis are improving the Affordable Care Act, improving access to affordable higher education, equal pay for equal work, implicit racial biases, some gun control measures, and overturning Citizens United. She, in many ways, represents a continuation of the policies of Barack Obama. And also a continuation of historic firsts, as she would be our first female President.
Her running mate is
Tim Kaine, a Senator from Virginia. Previously he has served as Governor of Virginia and Mayor of Richmond. Kaine is a lifelong civil rights attorney who worked for racial equality in Virginia. While in college he served as a Catholic missionary in Honduras. As a result he speaks fluent Spanish and often gives Spanish language interviews and conducted the first ever Spanish language campaign rally by a Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate in the US. Kaine is considered to be a moderate, but is relatively liberal for the state of Virginia. He was Governor during the Virginia Tech massacre so makes gun control a major issue. He's progressive on issues of race and social justice in particular. He's a pro-choice Catholic who is personally opposed to abortion but does not feel the government should be making that choice.
Donald Trump, the Republican nominee. Real estate magnate from New York and host of
The Apprentice and
The Celebrity Apprentice. He emerged from a field of 17 candidates in the Republican primary becoming popular among the Republican base with his appeal to nationalistic themes. He's ideologically incoherent and barely has policies, but what he does say is he wants to "Make America Great Again." Major focuses are curbing immigration, increasing military spending, a massive tax cut, and "law and order." Basically, it's white nationalism.
His running mate is
Mike Pence, the Governor of Indiana. Previously he served as a member of the House of Representatives. Pence is a former radio talk show host and that comes across in his campaign events. He's certainly smoother than his running mate, but also pretty boring. Pence is from the evangelical wing of the Republican Party and has an extreme record when it comes to women and the LGBT community in particular. Strongly anti-choice and against gay marriage, he has also advocated funding "gay conversion" therapy with taxpayer dollars. Economically, he's a standard issue conservative who believes standard issue conservative things.
Gary Johnson is the Libertarian candidate for President. He's the former Republican Governor of New Mexico. He's running on the usual Libertarian anti-regulatory platform. He is also kind of a doofus who did not know who Harriet Tubman was, where or what Aleppo is, and is generally clueless. His much more impressive running mate,
Bill Weld (former Republican Governor of Massachusetts), has basically endorsed Hillary Clinton.
Dr. Jill Stein is the Green Party's candidate, again. She's a doctor from Massachusetts and environmental activist. Mostly her position is that Clinton is a centrist and real liberals should not vote for her. Instead they should vote for a third party because how dangerous is Donald Trump anyway? Ugh.
Evan McMullin is an independent candidate with no official party affiliation but is basically representing the "Never Trump" Republicans. He is not on the ballot in all states, even as a write-in. He's a former CIA operative and policy staffer for the House GOP. He is also Mormon. He's running pretty strong in Utah and could throw a wrench into the election by managing to win that state, which is the only reason I'm including him here.
Harambe is a dead gorilla and internet meme who PPP jokingly included in some of their polls, where he got more of the electorate than Jill Stein. Hopefully this the last time he is mention in this thread.
BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE!
As always one third of the Senate is up for election in this cycle. Currently, the Senate has 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats. Democrats need to win four seats and the Presidency to control the Senate, or five seats without the Presidency.
Dark blue = incumbent Democrat, light blue = retiring Democrat, pink = retiring Republican, red = incumbent Republican
Key races:
Nevada: Rep. Joe Heck (R) vs. Catherine Cortez Masto (D), former Nevada Attorney General
This is a race for Harry Reid's Senate seat, and the only currently Democratic seat thought to be in a contentious race. Polls are close, but a strong early vote for Democrats indicate that this is probably Masto's to lose.
Wisconsin: Former Sen. Russ Feingold (D) vs. Sen. Ron Johnson (R)
Feingold is looking to reclaim the seat he lost in the 2010 wave to Johnson. Polls have consistently shown him to lead, though it has tightened recently. Outside money, especially the Koch Brothers' Americans for Prosperity has come pouring in on Johnson's side here.
Illinois: Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. Sen. Mark Kirk (R)
This is expected to be a blowout for Duckworth, a rising Democratic star. Even the heavily conservative Chicago Tribune endorsed her in this race.
Indiana: Sen. Evan Bayh (D) vs. Rep. Todd Young (R)
This is to replace retiring Senator Dan Coats (R). Evan Bayh is trying to return to the Senate, started with a huge lead, and has blown it because he's kind of a shitty politician.
Pennsylvania: Sen. Pat Toomey (R) vs. Katie McGinty (D), previously Gov. Tom Wolf's Chief of Staff
This race is close, but most polling has shown Toomey dropping off a bit. He is trying to make the argument for divided government and that he has worked with President Obama (LOL)
New Hampshire: Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) vs. Gov. Maggie Hassan (D)
Polling in New Hampshire has been weird all cycle. Hassan is maybe a slim favorite, but this is going to depend on turnout for the Presidential race
North Carolina: Sen. Richard Burr (R) vs. State Rep. Deborah Ross (D)
This is also close and going to depend on the presidential race.
Florida: Sen. Marco Rubio (R) vs. Rep. Patrick Murphy (D)
Rubio has held a consistent lead over Murphy. It's sometimes been close, but Murphy can't get over the top. Massive non-Cuban Hispanic turnout could create an upset, but it would be a major surprise, especially because Rubio remains strong in the Cuban community in Florida, a sizable portion of the electorate.
Missouri: Sen. Roy Blunt (R) vs. Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D)
Kander is an Afghanistan veteran who has surprised everyone by making this race in the increasingly deep red Missouri close. No polls to my knowledge have shown him to be in the lead, but he has been gaining consistently for two months while the presidential race goes more towards Trump. If he had two more weeks, I think he wins, but we'll see what happens tomorrow.
Democrats had hopes to also challenge John McCain in Arizona and Rob Portman in Ohio, but they have held consistent double digit leads.
GOVERNOR'S MANSIONS
There are also 12 Governor's races. Washington, Oregon, Utah, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, North Carolina, Delaware, Vermont, and New Hampshire. To my knowledge the two that are extremely close are Indiana and North Carolina. Watch those closely.
BALLOT INITIATIVES
Arizona, Colorado, Maine, South Dakota, and Washington have ballot initiatives to increase the minimum wage.
Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada and North Dakota all have ballot initiatives dealing with legalization of recreational or medical marijuana.
California has a ballot initiative dealing with porn actors that the forum is collectively against and urges you to vote NO on if you are a Californian.
I only want to add this to the ballot measures because it is both important (literally a matter of life or death) and a poorly worded ballot issue. In Nebraska, there's a ballot initiative on the repeal of the Death Penalty. If you want to get rid of the death penalty, you want to keep the bill that repeals the death penalty, so you vote to "retain". And vice versa.
I can edit this as more of these you're interested in are suggested to me.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
Posts
Most importantly, here's the Discord link: https://discord.gg/FG6xmKx
SIG has said she'll be there, and I'm sure a number of us will be. It almost moves too fast for me, so I might not, we'll see.
What TV network should I watch for election coverage?
None of them. Just read the thread. Seriously. If you must (and I am ignoring this advice myself) I recommend MSNBC for the most part. Brian Williams and Rachel Maddow will be anchoring, and you'll want that for Maddow. Their GOP operatives are usually among the most sane, with Steve Schmidt being mostly reasonable. Gene Robinson is a smart guy (and a Michigan grad, naturally) and he'll surely be there. Katy Tur will get to report on the blessed end of the Trump campaign, hopefully. Which will be nice for her. Plus they have the best theme music.
@moniker will suggest you watch PBS, which is a position I cannot disagree with terribly strenuously.
CBS/NBC proper/ABC will be basically fine. Annoying Trump surrogates and Republicans, but that's par for the course.
Fox probably has Shep Smith anchoring on their network shows.
If it becomes clear that Clinton is going to win, those of you who enjoy car wrecks may want to check out Fox News briefly to see if Sean Hannity has a meltdown on air like Karl Rove did four years ago. Plus Megyn Kelly might get to gloat to her co-workers which would be a little bit funny.
Under no circumstance should you EVER watch CNN.
What are some useful Twitter accounts?
America's foremost Trumpologist, Josh Marshall:
https://twitter.com/joshtpm
For: General news, election shenanigans updates, legal chicanery, etc.
Former Obama speechwriter, Jon Favreau
https://twitter.com/jonfavs
For: Telling you to calm down and make phone calls, connections with Obama insiders, Keepin' It 1600
NY Times/Upshot Poll Aggregator, Nate Cohn
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn
For: Examining results as they come in, knowing which counties are important, etc. Pays particularly close attention to North Carolina, a key swing state
Nevada political expert, Jon Ralston
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports
For: Nevada. In exhaustive detail.
Obama '08 Florida Leader, Steve Schale
https://twitter.com/steveschale
For: Florida
Slate columnist, Jamelle Bouie
https://twitter.com/jbouie
For: A minority journalist! Who gets to appear on TV! Will share a perspective you don't often see.
Benjy Sarlin, Brian Beutler, and Greg Sargent
https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin
https://twitter.com/brianbeutler
https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS
For: News
Katy Tur and Sopan Deb
https://twitter.com/KatyTurNBC
https://twitter.com/SopanDeb
For: Trump campaign stuffs, reward them for their year of infinite pain
Poll aggregators?
Many of us have been hard on it this cycle, but http://fivethirtyeight.com/ is still the usual go to here.
I prefer http://election.princeton.edu/ (PEC)
The Upshot is also great
Daily Kos Election is also good.
Benchmark Politics is new this cycle, but performed the best in the primaries, so might want to keep an eye on them and they update frequently through the night based on what they're seeing based on some benchmarks they expect candidates to hit in certain counties. Their Twitter might be more worth paying attention to than their website. https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol
Where should I look for county by county results?
@PantsB and I are ON IT. But we'll be mostly looking at CNN or the NY Times' updating in real time. Those links will be easy to find as polls start closing. Cohn is promising that NY Times/Upshot have some snazzy stuff planned, so I would recommend going there. If you are interested in individual states, search for their Secretary of State offices, which should have links as results come in.
Also got a request to include The Guardian's coverage here. They have little animated avatars that people liked in the primaries.
How can the race be called with 0% reporting? And when can we expect the race to be called?
Races are called based on a combination of actual results and exit polling conducted as voters leave their polling places. Exit polls are somewhat unreliable but with a large enough margin we can categorize the race. The networks and the AP generally categorize races in five different ways when they do not have any actual votes. They are:
Trump wins, generally indicating a Trump lead of at least 10 points in the exit polls
Too early to call, Trump leading, generally indicating a Trump lead of 6-9 points
Too close to call, generally indicating a race within 5 points either way
Too early to call, Clinton leading, generally indicating a Clinton lead of 6-9 points
Clinton wins, generally indicating a Clinton lead of at least 10 points
As votes come in, especially from specific communities (like Detroit in Michigan) they will clarify and declare a winner.
An exhaustive breakdown of what to expect, if the race is close:
7 PM Closings
Vermont - Clinton wins
Virginia - Too early, Clinton leads
South Carolina - Trump wins
Georgia - Too early, Trump leads
Kentucky - Trump wins
Indiana - Trump wins
If Georgia is Too Close, Virginia is insta-called, or South Carolina, Kentucky, or Indiana is "Too Early to Call" that is probably a good sign for Clinton. If Virginia "Too Close" that is good for Trump. (Vermont will never be anything other that Clinton instantly)
7:30 PM Closings
Ohio - Too close to call
West Virginia - Trump wins
North Carolina - Too close to call
If either Ohio or North Carolina can be categorized, that's a big signal, especially if Clinton's leading. If she wins either, she wins easily.
8 PM Closings
Maine - Clinton Wins, ME-02 too close
New Hampshire - Too close
Massachusetts - Clinton Wins
Connecticut - Clinton Wins
Rhode Island - Clinton Wins
New Jersey - Clinton Wins
Pennsylvania - Too close to call
Maryland - Clinton Wins
Delaware - Clinton Wins
Florida - Too close
Tennessee - Trump Wins
Alabama - Trump Wins
Mississippi - Trump Wins
Illinois - Clinton Wins
Missouri - Trump Wins
Oklahoma Trump Wins
Notable signs here are Pennsylvania, Florida, and New Hampshire. If they're "too early, Clinton leads" or "Clinton wins" that's a big deal, especially Pennsylvania or Florida where there will not be an early characterization so whatever.
8:30 PM Closings
Arkansas - Trump Wins
9 PM Closings
New York - Clinton Wins
Michigan - Too early, Clinton leads
Wisconsin - Too early, Clinton leads
Minnesota - Clinton Wins
Louisiana - Trump Wins
Nebraska - Trump Wins, NE-02 too early to call, Trump leads
Kansas - Trump Wins
North Dakota - Trump Wins
South Dakota - Trump Wins
Wyoming - Trump Wins
Texas - Trump Wins
Colorado - Too early, Clinton leads
New Mexico - Clinton wins
Arizona - Too early, Trump leads
Watch Michigan and Wisconsin. If they're instant calls, the race is probably over. Arizona too close and Colorado instant calls indicate Hispanic wave is real.
10 PM Closings
Iowa - Too early, Trump leads
Montana - Trump Wins
Utah - Trump Wins, probably? McMullin complicates things here
Nevada - Too early, Clinton wins
11 PM Closings
Idaho - Trump Wins
Washington - Clinton Wins
Oregon - Too early, Clinton leads (because of the mail in ballots and no exit polls)
California - Clinton Wins
Hawai'i - Clinton Wins
1 AM Closings
Alaska - Trump Wins
What Do I Do When Drudge Says He Has Exits With Trump Winning Late Afternoon?
Remember two things:
1) Drudge is a bullshit artist and lies.
2) Exit polls, especially first wave exit polls, are notoriously unreliable.
We are, I think, unanimous (except Glyph) on this election, even though we were not in the primary. We are Clinton supporters. However, one thing that is consistent in the 2008 and 2012 election day threads was a number of lurkers coming forward and telling the rest of us that they were thankful that the threads existed because they were funny or reassuring or informative. For that, we should be proud. This year's threads were a little more contentious, especially the Democratic primary thread, where we actually had major disagreements for the first time in basically 12 years, since this forum was overwhelming for Obama. It got heated, but I hope we came through OK and that once again the thread proved useful for people, and not just those of us who were participating in it to preserve our sanity. Apologies to the mods for it being a pain in the ass to moderate.
The single most frustrating part of this election has been the behavior of the media during it. With that in mind, I would like to present the five most undercovered stories of the campaign:
1) Policy. Any policy.
2) Why are Clinton voters voting FOR her?
3) Clinton as first female nominee
4) Mike Pence's radical record
5) Trump's white nationalism
6 BONUS STORIES: Trump Foundation, Trump's taxes, Trump's lack of press conferences, Trump's attacks on the media, Trump's attacks on the Constitution, anyfuckingthing other than the fucking e-mails
People Who I Think More Of After This Election:
Hillary Clinton
Tim Kaine
Josh Marshall
Ana Navarro
Hillary Clinton Again
Jake Tapper
Chelsea Clinton
Ben Sasse (I mean, I still don't think much of him, but he stuck to his guns)
Hillary Clinton A Third Time
New Heroes of This Election (People we had not heard from before, but now know):
David Fahrenholdt
Sopan Deb
Katy Tur
The Khans, especially Khizr as their public face
Alicia Machado
Jason Kander
I'm going to ignore Donald Trump here, because fuck that fascist orange monster with an undiagnosed personality disorder. He's gotten enough fucking attention in this election and will hopefully just go fucking away.
Instead, let's talk about Hillary. Hillary Clinton is, by all accounts of people who actually know her, a tremendous human being. Her public record is one of public service, particularly focused on the well being of women and children. Whether she was doing undercover work to see if schools in the south were actually desegregating after Brown v. Board, joining the Children's Defense Fund as a lawyer, working to get SCHIP passed as First Lady, making sure first responders' health was looked after post-9/11, or serving the nation as Secretary of State, she has consistently put the interests of many people ahead of her narrow political interests.
I think the SCHIP example is maybe the best and most illustrative of why she should be President. She was the point woman on Bill Clinton's efforts to get health care reform through Congress. It was defeated through many of the same tactics we saw from 2009 - 2010 to try to defeat Obamacare. Flat out lying from Betsy McCaughey, astroturfed right wing protests, the works. Hillary herself was viciously attacked, as she has been almost since she entered public life, for daring to be political as First Lady instead of ceremonial. They lost that fight. She didn't give up and instead asked what the best thing we could get signed into law was. And what arose was the Children's Health Insurance Program, which has given millions of American children who previously lacked it access to good healthcare and giving them a little more opportunity to live up to their potential. Hillary Clinton does not give up. Think about all the shit she has had to endure over the last 25 years. Just the last 18 months of bullshit aimed at our country has had many of us frustrated and despairing. She's even more directly the target than we are, and she's still enthusiastically campaigning and trying to win the right to get... four more years of vicious shit said about her. That's someone who has the temperament to be President of the United States.
She believes in the things the majority of us believe in. She is flexible and willing to get the best deal she can. She learns from her mistakes, as we can see in the growth from her 2008 campaign to this one. She's smart as hell and detail oriented. She'll be a good President.
YOU PROMISED HOPIUM
The Clinton's story of this campaign is really good:
Khizr Khan talks about the story of a bullied 10 year old boy (it's inspirational, I swear!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7z7lN7nQjG0
While I'm at it, Khizr Khan at the DNC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZNWYqDU948
Michelle Obama at the DNC
Of course, in many ways, we're still an Obama group, so here's the good stuff:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhWDFgRfi1Q
The "Fired Up, Ready to Go" Story
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OofHuLW6xdM
Barack in the Virginia Rain (some of his best work)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IN05jVNBs64
Maybe his finest public moment since he became President
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYtaKzDFMBs
But I'll close with Hillary, because this is her essential nature:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTe70CmYWv4
And the campaign video was phenomenal
Finally.
Thanks thread, it's kept me sane.
GO VOTE
That Hopium post was/is incredibly needed right now.
lol
Be honest.
-Indiana Solo, runner of blades
The cemetery in Rochester where she's buried usually closes at 5:30pm, but the response has been so overwhelming that staff will be keeping the cemetery open until the polls close.
The cemetery, by the way, is called Mount Hope
And ready to go!
Well, initially it was what I did four years ago with a relatively fair real OP and then my opinion and then I thought I should include all the stuff in the second post and it kind of ballooned out of control.
Nintendo ID: Incindium
PSN: IncindiumX
Ready to Go!
oh my gosh yes.
So very very very needed.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
Should just be that link (top of the second post) I think and then you'll need an account name.
Clicking the link opened Discord but didn't open a server/channel. I think I need an invite to the server?
Nintendo ID: Incindium
PSN: IncindiumX
Illinois has a constitutional amendment up for a vote. The idea is to create a "lockbox" for any taxes raised by vehicle taxes and such, that they can't go to any other part of the government. It's very similar to how our state pensions are locked in and cannot be diverted or underfunded.
The problem is that the road taxes don't cover our infrastructure needs at all, and right now no money is flowing through the government properly thanks to the gridlock between Rauner and Madigan. And this could make future financial woes worse.
http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/the-money-behind-the-safe-roads-amendment/
So, ugh I have to go to work at 9pm EST, and won't have internet until 12am (3 hours later). I am legit thinking of calling out, because that is a terrible time to go dark.
Do not fuck this up, America.
But this one has been a two-year blizzard. Cue the sunshine. Please.
This has been my Facebook avatar for as long as I can remember. If not from 08, definitely the 2012 election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwmVfewqu7I
Tomorrow is that day. Go ahead, drink it in.
Games: Ad Astra Per Phalla | Choose Your Own Phalla
Also I made the Op
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Have you been introduced to our parents, Brexit whoops, I mean Britain?
In the words of Futurama's Near-Death Star guards, "Prepare for disappointment."