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The Unemployment Thread

12346»

Posts

  • HefflingHeffling No Pic EverRegistered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Javen wrote: »
    Reading over the OP, though, I'm starting to think of some tertiary effects of a UBI

    Funnily enough, I think a UBI would help the the most, the exact type of person who would be most against it; person #1. Small towns would absolutely be revitalized with the sudden influx of income; businesses would open in what would now be considered mostly untapped real estate in a hungry market.

    Would those convicted of a crime continue to accrue their basic income whilst serving out their sentence? How about probation?

    What level of citizenship would be required to be eligible for a UBI? What about people with dual citizenships? If the charge toward automation is really as inevitable as we keep saying, other countries might have to implement similar measures. If someone splits their living time between the US and the UK, and both have basic income policies, how would it be reconciled? What about someone who does work in another country?

    Answers to questions, from my opinion:

    - Convicted criminals lose their UBI while incarcerated.
    - Full citizens only
    - Dual citizenship must be abandoned.
    - overseas workers accrue a generous % of their UBI into a savings account, payable when they re-establish residency.

    I recommend:

    - Convicted criminals have their UBI used to pay the costs of their incarceration.
    - Open to all persons in the country. Otherwise you push illegal immigrants into those same underpaid terrible jobs that should require better pay. Look at what's happened in Alabama recently regarding crop gathering.
    - Dual citizenship should be allowed. See next answer.
    - Overseas workers earn their UBI based on their total income, both domestic and foreign. Otherwise you're literally paying our laborers to work overseas.

    If a movement doesn't have someone that can sit down opposite those in a position of power and strike a deal, how can that movement achieve success?
    Gnome-Interruptus
  • DisruptedCapitalistDisruptedCapitalist rugged, weathered Registered User regular
    That's the thing though, I'd imagine by the time there is not enough demand to support these businesses anymore there won't be any need for the businesses anyway. The wealthy will have their robot armies supplying their every need and there won't be any need for the 8 billion people on the planet who aren't part of the wealthy ownership class.

    Sure, the rest of the planet will try to fight for their survival, but if soldiers and generals have been replaced with robots, then the 99% won't stand a chance. The few wealthy families will be the only humans left and they'd be fine with that.

    SleepCommander ZoomCalica
  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    Sleep wrote: »
    As far as automation's affect on unemployment and people's insistence that it doesn't destroy jobs and instead opens up new opportunities.

    I would like proof of that within the last decade.

    I say our modern technological leaps destroy so many jobs that any new opportunities opened up by the new technology are not numerous enough to counteract the damage.

    Like when we make a technological leap we don't just destroy a few jobs at the plant like mechanical looms did at textile factories. Our technological leaps destroy the whole fuckin factory or reduces it to a skeleton crew.

    We are getting to a point where 3-10 people can do the work of tens of thousands, and there's no real way to staunch that bleeding.

    In 2006 there were 10,000,000+ fewer full time workers in the US than there are now. If anything the last decade disproves your argument. The idea that the job market is in some kind of crisis is just BS. It was pushed because bad news sells and because the media was afraid that a too rosy portrayal of the Obama economic recovery would seem partisan. Its just not backed up by reality.

    1Bg1URD.png

    Low skill industry jobs aren't coming back. High skill jobs across virtually all categories and low skill service jobs are growing. Focusing on the the former and pretending the latter don't count is just BS.

    11793-1.png
    day9gosu.png
    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
    zepherinOghulk
  • Captain MarcusCaptain Marcus now arrives the hour of actionRegistered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    Low skill industry jobs aren't coming back. High skill jobs across virtually all categories and low skill service jobs are growing. Focusing on the the former and pretending the latter don't count is just BS.
    They don't count. You sound like you've never worked retail, Pants. Retail fucking sucks. You get paid nothing and the working conditions are awful, and to pretend that the massive increase of people laid off or "rightsized" from good jobs and forced into working at TJ Maxx is a good thing is disingenuous.

    Take a look at this- almost ten years after the recession in 2008, average weekly wages still aren't back up to where they were before the recession. There has been no "Obama recovery". If anything, the media has been too rosy.

    ISIS delenda est
    KraintMan in the MistsNobodyskyknytMegaMek
  • HefflingHeffling No Pic EverRegistered User regular
    Looking at your chart, you have about 83.5% participation in 2006 and 81.5% now. That means that we're losing more jobs that are being created. The trend from 2007 to 2014 was steadily decreasing labor participation, which increases competitiveness for the remaining jobs and reduces the power of labor to negotiate.

    And replacing low skill, moderate pay industry jobs with at or near minimum wage service jobs isn't sustainable. Eventually you'll push too many families to the poverty line, and run out of middle class to act as consumers for those services.

    If you don't have a UBI or other strong social security plan in place when you reach that point, society (in my opinion) will collapse.

    If a movement doesn't have someone that can sit down opposite those in a position of power and strike a deal, how can that movement achieve success?
    Captain Marcus
  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    Low skill industry jobs aren't coming back. High skill jobs across virtually all categories and low skill service jobs are growing. Focusing on the the former and pretending the latter don't count is just BS.
    They don't count. You sound like you've never worked retail, Pants. Retail fucking sucks. You get paid nothing and the working conditions are awful, and to pretend that the massive increase of people laid off or "rightsized" from good jobs and forced into working at TJ Maxx is a good thing is disingenuous.

    Take a look at this- almost ten years after the recession in 2008, average weekly wages still aren't back up to where they were before the recession. There has been no "Obama recovery". If anything, the media has been too rosy.

    Do you think working on a factory floor was unlimited blowjobs and ice cream or something? Like I said, economic reporting on the recovery has been bullshit from the start. For instance, the cherry picking claim that weekly wages from 2008 "still aren't up to where they were before the recession" is BS.

    BbFeOgO.png

    Even cherry picking it is. And that takes the artificial spike in late 2008 as the economy tanked because the people who lost their jobs were disproportionately those earning the least. When you remove the bottom 15% of earners, the median shoots up temporarily. Even taking that into account, the median weekly earnings is higher now than it was then.

    And yes I've worked retail. My father was also a bartender for 25 years until he was in his 60s.

    11793-1.png
    day9gosu.png
    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
    zepherinOghulk
  • PaladinPaladin Registered User regular
    Are there earnings graphs that take education related debt into account? I think the argument that education no longer pays what it used to in the skilled job market is feasible and a lot of those high level people are underwater.

    Marty: The future, it's where you're going?
    Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
    LostNinjaSleepfurlionCalicaskyknyt
  • SimpsoniaSimpsonia Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    PantsB wrote: »
    Low skill industry jobs aren't coming back. High skill jobs across virtually all categories and low skill service jobs are growing. Focusing on the the former and pretending the latter don't count is just BS.
    They don't count. You sound like you've never worked retail, Pants. Retail fucking sucks. You get paid nothing and the working conditions are awful, and to pretend that the massive increase of people laid off or "rightsized" from good jobs and forced into working at TJ Maxx is a good thing is disingenuous.

    Take a look at this- almost ten years after the recession in 2008, average weekly wages still aren't back up to where they were before the recession. There has been no "Obama recovery". If anything, the media has been too rosy.

    Do you think working on a factory floor was unlimited blowjobs and ice cream or something? Like I said, economic reporting on the recovery has been bullshit from the start. For instance, the cherry picking claim that weekly wages from 2008 "still aren't up to where they were before the recession" is BS.
    BbFeOgO.png

    Even cherry picking it is. And that takes the artificial spike in late 2008 as the economy tanked because the people who lost their jobs were disproportionately those earning the least. When you remove the bottom 15% of earners, the median shoots up temporarily. Even taking that into account, the median weekly earnings is higher now than it was then.

    And yes I've worked retail. My father was also a bartender for 25 years until he was in his 60s.

    If you're going to make claims that wages have gone up, don't post one with real wages, post one that accounts for inflation.

    SleepNobodyskyknyt
  • zepherinzepherin Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    Low skill industry jobs aren't coming back. High skill jobs across virtually all categories and low skill service jobs are growing. Focusing on the the former and pretending the latter don't count is just BS.
    They don't count. You sound like you've never worked retail, Pants. Retail fucking sucks. You get paid nothing and the working conditions are awful, and to pretend that the massive increase of people laid off or "rightsized" from good jobs and forced into working at TJ Maxx is a good thing is disingenuous.

    Take a look at this- almost ten years after the recession in 2008, average weekly wages still aren't back up to where they were before the recession. There has been no "Obama recovery". If anything, the media has been too rosy.
    That's not really what that article is telling. Unemployment is down, U-3 and U-6 and earnings are up. Donald Trump is a dip shit, Hilldawg would have made a good president. That's what I'm gathering from that. We are about where we were in 2004-2005. Ok, not gang busters, but not bad. Wages are up, retail sucks, but even retail wages are up.

    As with anything this is area dependent. There aren't many retail workers making less than 12 bucks an hour near where I live. Mcdonalds near my house advertises 14.40 an hour to start. However in rural Florida that job pays min wage.

  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    Paladin wrote: »
    Are there earnings graphs that take education related debt into account? I think the argument that education no longer pays what it used to in the skilled job market is feasible and a lot of those high level people are underwater.

    About 71% of bachelors graduates have debt. The median student debt of those who do is between 10 and 15K and payments are between 1200 and 2400 a year. The median HS, no college earner makes 35K a year while the median bachelor degree (no advanced degree) earner makes 60K a year.
    In 2014, some 67 percent of young adults ages 25–34 who were in the labor force worked full time, year round (i.e., worked 35 or more hours per week for 50 or more weeks per year). The percentage of young adults working full time, year round was generally higher for those with higher levels of educational attainment. For example, 73 percent of young adults with a bachelor's degree worked full time, year round in 2014, compared with 65 percent of young adult high school completers (those with only a high school diploma or its equivalent).
    ...
    For young adults ages 25–34 who worked full time, year round, higher educational attainment was associated with higher median earnings; this pattern was consistent from 2000 through 2014. For example, in 2014 the median earnings of young adults with a bachelor's degree ($49,900) were 66 percent higher than the median earnings of young adult high school completers ($30,000). The median earnings of young adult high school completers were 20 percent higher than the median earnings of those without a high school credential ($25,000). In addition, median earnings of young adults with a master's or higher degree were $59,100 in 2014, some 18 percent higher than the median earnings of young adults with a bachelor's degree. This pattern of higher earnings associated with higher levels of educational attainment also held for both male and female young adults as well as for White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian young adults.
    Its completely untrue, its just an easy way to generate clicks from people frustrated with student debt or college.

    11793-1.png
    day9gosu.png
    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
    Oghulk
  • PaladinPaladin Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    Paladin wrote: »
    Are there earnings graphs that take education related debt into account? I think the argument that education no longer pays what it used to in the skilled job market is feasible and a lot of those high level people are underwater.

    About 71% of bachelors graduates have debt. The median student debt of those who do is between 10 and 15K and payments are between 1200 and 2400 a year. The median HS, no college earner makes 35K a year while the median bachelor degree (no advanced degree) earner makes 60K a year.
    In 2014, some 67 percent of young adults ages 25–34 who were in the labor force worked full time, year round (i.e., worked 35 or more hours per week for 50 or more weeks per year). The percentage of young adults working full time, year round was generally higher for those with higher levels of educational attainment. For example, 73 percent of young adults with a bachelor's degree worked full time, year round in 2014, compared with 65 percent of young adult high school completers (those with only a high school diploma or its equivalent).
    ...
    For young adults ages 25–34 who worked full time, year round, higher educational attainment was associated with higher median earnings; this pattern was consistent from 2000 through 2014. For example, in 2014 the median earnings of young adults with a bachelor's degree ($49,900) were 66 percent higher than the median earnings of young adult high school completers ($30,000). The median earnings of young adult high school completers were 20 percent higher than the median earnings of those without a high school credential ($25,000). In addition, median earnings of young adults with a master's or higher degree were $59,100 in 2014, some 18 percent higher than the median earnings of young adults with a bachelor's degree. This pattern of higher earnings associated with higher levels of educational attainment also held for both male and female young adults as well as for White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian young adults.
    Its completely untrue, its just an easy way to generate clicks from people frustrated with student debt or college.

    The stats are a bit inaccurate; the median of the earnings of a bachelor's degree is $50k, and masters or higher gets $60k. This is only relevant to the people like me with advanced degrees since the $10k difference does not adequately cover the additional educational cost. It's good to know that people who stop at bachelors are doing well though; if only if known that earlier.

    Marty: The future, it's where you're going?
    Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
    zepherinskyknyt
  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    edited February 2017
    PantsB wrote: »
    Paladin wrote: »
    Are there earnings graphs that take education related debt into account? I think the argument that education no longer pays what it used to in the skilled job market is feasible and a lot of those high level people are underwater.

    About 71% of bachelors graduates have debt. The median student debt of those who do is between 10 and 15K and payments are between 1200 and 2400 a year. The median HS, no college earner makes 35K a year while the median bachelor degree (no advanced degree) earner makes 60K a year.
    In 2014, some 67 percent of young adults ages 25–34 who were in the labor force worked full time, year round (i.e., worked 35 or more hours per week for 50 or more weeks per year). The percentage of young adults working full time, year round was generally higher for those with higher levels of educational attainment. For example, 73 percent of young adults with a bachelor's degree worked full time, year round in 2014, compared with 65 percent of young adult high school completers (those with only a high school diploma or its equivalent).
    ...
    For young adults ages 25–34 who worked full time, year round, higher educational attainment was associated with higher median earnings; this pattern was consistent from 2000 through 2014. For example, in 2014 the median earnings of young adults with a bachelor's degree ($49,900) were 66 percent higher than the median earnings of young adult high school completers ($30,000). The median earnings of young adult high school completers were 20 percent higher than the median earnings of those without a high school credential ($25,000). In addition, median earnings of young adults with a master's or higher degree were $59,100 in 2014, some 18 percent higher than the median earnings of young adults with a bachelor's degree. This pattern of higher earnings associated with higher levels of educational attainment also held for both male and female young adults as well as for White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian young adults.
    Its completely untrue, its just an easy way to generate clicks from people frustrated with student debt or college.

    Yeah my wife and I combined do about 2600 a month on student loans for bachelor's degrees. I'm looking at that for another 7 out so years and I've already been doing it for 8 or so years. My wife has even longer to go on her over a grand a month payments.

    I don't know where that horse shit 15000 total in student loan debts is from but it has never been anyone's experience that I have seen except for people with scholarships that they didn't somehow lose by getting below a B in one course.

    The only people I know that aren't under water on their student loans, that actually got their degrees, are people with rich parents.

    Sleep on
    Simpsonia
  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    I don't know how you have 2500+ a month on student loans for bachelor's degrees. That's the amount you'd pay with hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt. My wife graduated undergrad with $60,000, paid it off in ~10 years and didn't come close to 2500 a month.

    Minimally you should be looking at refinancing and probably at Income driven Repayment if you got direct loans. Unless your household makes over 225K (2500 * 12 /15%) you'd be paying substantially less.
    How does IBR make payments more affordable? IBR uses a kind of sliding scale to determine how much you can afford to pay on your federal loans. If you earn below 150% of the poverty level for your family size, your required loan payment will be $0. If you earn more, your loan payment will be capped at 15% of whatever you earn above that amount.


    11793-1.png
    day9gosu.png
    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    edited February 2017
    PantsB wrote: »
    I don't know how you have 2500+ a month on student loans for bachelor's degrees. That's the amount you'd pay with hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt. My wife graduated undergrad with $60,000, paid it off in ~10 years and didn't come close to 2500 a month.

    Minimally you should be looking at refinancing and probably at Income driven Repayment if you got direct loans. Unless your household makes over 225K (2500 * 12 /15%) you'd be paying substantially less.
    How does IBR make payments more affordable? IBR uses a kind of sliding scale to determine how much you can afford to pay on your federal loans. If you earn below 150% of the poverty level for your family size, your required loan payment will be $0. If you earn more, your loan payment will be capped at 15% of whatever you earn above that amount.


    When did you graduate?

    60,000 isnt enough for 4 years of private college now especially if you have to live on campus or use student loans to pay for housing.

    Sleep on
    Blameless Clericskyknyt
  • CauldCauld Registered User regular
    Simpsonia wrote: »
    PantsB wrote: »
    PantsB wrote: »
    Low skill industry jobs aren't coming back. High skill jobs across virtually all categories and low skill service jobs are growing. Focusing on the the former and pretending the latter don't count is just BS.
    They don't count. You sound like you've never worked retail, Pants. Retail fucking sucks. You get paid nothing and the working conditions are awful, and to pretend that the massive increase of people laid off or "rightsized" from good jobs and forced into working at TJ Maxx is a good thing is disingenuous.

    Take a look at this- almost ten years after the recession in 2008, average weekly wages still aren't back up to where they were before the recession. There has been no "Obama recovery". If anything, the media has been too rosy.

    Do you think working on a factory floor was unlimited blowjobs and ice cream or something? Like I said, economic reporting on the recovery has been bullshit from the start. For instance, the cherry picking claim that weekly wages from 2008 "still aren't up to where they were before the recession" is BS.
    BbFeOgO.png

    Even cherry picking it is. And that takes the artificial spike in late 2008 as the economy tanked because the people who lost their jobs were disproportionately those earning the least. When you remove the bottom 15% of earners, the median shoots up temporarily. Even taking that into account, the median weekly earnings is higher now than it was then.

    And yes I've worked retail. My father was also a bartender for 25 years until he was in his 60s.

    If you're going to make claims that wages have gone up, don't post one with real wages, post one that accounts for inflation.
    Simpsonia wrote: »
    PantsB wrote: »
    PantsB wrote: »
    Low skill industry jobs aren't coming back. High skill jobs across virtually all categories and low skill service jobs are growing. Focusing on the the former and pretending the latter don't count is just BS.
    They don't count. You sound like you've never worked retail, Pants. Retail fucking sucks. You get paid nothing and the working conditions are awful, and to pretend that the massive increase of people laid off or "rightsized" from good jobs and forced into working at TJ Maxx is a good thing is disingenuous.

    Take a look at this- almost ten years after the recession in 2008, average weekly wages still aren't back up to where they were before the recession. There has been no "Obama recovery". If anything, the media has been too rosy.

    Do you think working on a factory floor was unlimited blowjobs and ice cream or something? Like I said, economic reporting on the recovery has been bullshit from the start. For instance, the cherry picking claim that weekly wages from 2008 "still aren't up to where they were before the recession" is BS.
    BbFeOgO.png

    Even cherry picking it is. And that takes the artificial spike in late 2008 as the economy tanked because the people who lost their jobs were disproportionately those earning the least. When you remove the bottom 15% of earners, the median shoots up temporarily. Even taking that into account, the median weekly earnings is higher now than it was then.

    And yes I've worked retail. My father was also a bartender for 25 years until he was in his 60s.

    If you're going to make claims that wages have gone up, don't post one with real wages, post one that accounts for inflation.

    I'm confused. The above chart is "real wages" ie inflation adjusted wages. Isn't it?

    PantsB
  • PellaeonPellaeon Registered User regular
    Sleep wrote: »
    PantsB wrote: »
    I don't know how you have 2500+ a month on student loans for bachelor's degrees. That's the amount you'd pay with hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt. My wife graduated undergrad with $60,000, paid it off in ~10 years and didn't come close to 2500 a month.

    Minimally you should be looking at refinancing and probably at Income driven Repayment if you got direct loans. Unless your household makes over 225K (2500 * 12 /15%) you'd be paying substantially less.
    How does IBR make payments more affordable? IBR uses a kind of sliding scale to determine how much you can afford to pay on your federal loans. If you earn below 150% of the poverty level for your family size, your required loan payment will be $0. If you earn more, your loan payment will be capped at 15% of whatever you earn above that amount.


    When did you graduate?

    60,000 isnt enough for 4 years of private college now especially if you have to live on campus or use student loans to pay for housing.

    Shit, I graduated a decade ago from a public college. My parents and I borrowed 17k a year to cover everything. This was like 3500 tuition and the rest in off campus housing costs.

    Tuition alone there is now pushing 17k/yr, and then tack on the room and board. We were able to afford the premium for the luxury of me shopping around and going away to a really good in state public college. These days my options would be live at home and go to the nearby school just to break even.

    Once you're out for a while it's hard to realize how much shit has climbed just in the past few years. I ended up working in a different field of engineering than my major, I'd love to be able to go back to get formal education in this engineering field (because I like it), but fuck if I wanna go back at today's rates

    Ticaldfjam
  • bowenbowen How you doin'? Registered User regular
    The best part is when they require everyone below junior to stay on campus too because reasons

    Ladies.
    Captain MarcusSleepMvrckBlameless ClericfurlionCalicaShadowfireMegaMek
  • OghulkOghulk biggest externality low-energy economistRegistered User regular
    Sleep wrote: »
    PantsB wrote: »
    Paladin wrote: »
    Are there earnings graphs that take education related debt into account? I think the argument that education no longer pays what it used to in the skilled job market is feasible and a lot of those high level people are underwater.

    About 71% of bachelors graduates have debt. The median student debt of those who do is between 10 and 15K and payments are between 1200 and 2400 a year. The median HS, no college earner makes 35K a year while the median bachelor degree (no advanced degree) earner makes 60K a year.
    In 2014, some 67 percent of young adults ages 25–34 who were in the labor force worked full time, year round (i.e., worked 35 or more hours per week for 50 or more weeks per year). The percentage of young adults working full time, year round was generally higher for those with higher levels of educational attainment. For example, 73 percent of young adults with a bachelor's degree worked full time, year round in 2014, compared with 65 percent of young adult high school completers (those with only a high school diploma or its equivalent).
    ...
    For young adults ages 25–34 who worked full time, year round, higher educational attainment was associated with higher median earnings; this pattern was consistent from 2000 through 2014. For example, in 2014 the median earnings of young adults with a bachelor's degree ($49,900) were 66 percent higher than the median earnings of young adult high school completers ($30,000). The median earnings of young adult high school completers were 20 percent higher than the median earnings of those without a high school credential ($25,000). In addition, median earnings of young adults with a master's or higher degree were $59,100 in 2014, some 18 percent higher than the median earnings of young adults with a bachelor's degree. This pattern of higher earnings associated with higher levels of educational attainment also held for both male and female young adults as well as for White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian young adults.
    Its completely untrue, its just an easy way to generate clicks from people frustrated with student debt or college.

    Yeah my wife and I combined do about 2600 a month on student loans for bachelor's degrees. I'm looking at that for another 7 out so years and I've already been doing it for 8 or so years. My wife has even longer to go on her over a grand a month payments.

    I don't know where that horse shit 15000 total in student loan debts is from but it has never been anyone's experience that I have seen except for people with scholarships that they didn't somehow lose by getting below a B in one course.

    The only people I know that aren't under water on their student loans, that actually got their degrees, are people with rich parents.

    He said it's the median student debt. As in half of student loans are above and half are below.


    Paladin wrote: »
    Are there earnings graphs that take education related debt into account? I think the argument that education no longer pays what it used to in the skilled job market is feasible and a lot of those high level people are underwater.

    I'm surprised there isn't a data point that takes it into account, but I think a lot of that is because it would require extensive IRS data that, while anonymous, would actually make it easy to determine who a person is.

    One way to think of it is by taking that median yearly loan payment divided by 52 and cross-referenced with this graph of median weekly earnings by educational attainment thanks to the BLS, which makes it pretty clear that the debt is still worth it.


    Cauld wrote: »
    Simpsonia wrote: »
    PantsB wrote: »
    PantsB wrote: »
    Low skill industry jobs aren't coming back. High skill jobs across virtually all categories and low skill service jobs are growing. Focusing on the the former and pretending the latter don't count is just BS.
    They don't count. You sound like you've never worked retail, Pants. Retail fucking sucks. You get paid nothing and the working conditions are awful, and to pretend that the massive increase of people laid off or "rightsized" from good jobs and forced into working at TJ Maxx is a good thing is disingenuous.

    Take a look at this- almost ten years after the recession in 2008, average weekly wages still aren't back up to where they were before the recession. There has been no "Obama recovery". If anything, the media has been too rosy.

    Do you think working on a factory floor was unlimited blowjobs and ice cream or something? Like I said, economic reporting on the recovery has been bullshit from the start. For instance, the cherry picking claim that weekly wages from 2008 "still aren't up to where they were before the recession" is BS.
    BbFeOgO.png

    Even cherry picking it is. And that takes the artificial spike in late 2008 as the economy tanked because the people who lost their jobs were disproportionately those earning the least. When you remove the bottom 15% of earners, the median shoots up temporarily. Even taking that into account, the median weekly earnings is higher now than it was then.

    And yes I've worked retail. My father was also a bartender for 25 years until he was in his 60s.

    If you're going to make claims that wages have gone up, don't post one with real wages, post one that accounts for inflation.
    Simpsonia wrote: »
    PantsB wrote: »
    PantsB wrote: »
    Low skill industry jobs aren't coming back. High skill jobs across virtually all categories and low skill service jobs are growing. Focusing on the the former and pretending the latter don't count is just BS.
    They don't count. You sound like you've never worked retail, Pants. Retail fucking sucks. You get paid nothing and the working conditions are awful, and to pretend that the massive increase of people laid off or "rightsized" from good jobs and forced into working at TJ Maxx is a good thing is disingenuous.

    Take a look at this- almost ten years after the recession in 2008, average weekly wages still aren't back up to where they were before the recession. There has been no "Obama recovery". If anything, the media has been too rosy.

    Do you think working on a factory floor was unlimited blowjobs and ice cream or something? Like I said, economic reporting on the recovery has been bullshit from the start. For instance, the cherry picking claim that weekly wages from 2008 "still aren't up to where they were before the recession" is BS.
    BbFeOgO.png

    Even cherry picking it is. And that takes the artificial spike in late 2008 as the economy tanked because the people who lost their jobs were disproportionately those earning the least. When you remove the bottom 15% of earners, the median shoots up temporarily. Even taking that into account, the median weekly earnings is higher now than it was then.

    And yes I've worked retail. My father was also a bartender for 25 years until he was in his 60s.

    If you're going to make claims that wages have gone up, don't post one with real wages, post one that accounts for inflation.

    I'm confused. The above chart is "real wages" ie inflation adjusted wages. Isn't it?

    It is inflation adjusted, i.e. real wages.

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  • PellaeonPellaeon Registered User regular
    bowen wrote: »
    The best part is when they require everyone below junior to stay on campus too because reasons

    Dolla dolla bills y'all

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  • Magus`Magus` Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    Paladin wrote: »
    Are there earnings graphs that take education related debt into account? I think the argument that education no longer pays what it used to in the skilled job market is feasible and a lot of those high level people are underwater.

    About 71% of bachelors graduates have debt. The median student debt of those who do is between 10 and 15K and payments are between 1200 and 2400 a year. The median HS, no college earner makes 35K a year while the median bachelor degree (no advanced degree) earner makes 60K a year.
    In 2014, some 67 percent of young adults ages 25–34 who were in the labor force worked full time, year round (i.e., worked 35 or more hours per week for 50 or more weeks per year). The percentage of young adults working full time, year round was generally higher for those with higher levels of educational attainment. For example, 73 percent of young adults with a bachelor's degree worked full time, year round in 2014, compared with 65 percent of young adult high school completers (those with only a high school diploma or its equivalent).
    ...
    For young adults ages 25–34 who worked full time, year round, higher educational attainment was associated with higher median earnings; this pattern was consistent from 2000 through 2014. For example, in 2014 the median earnings of young adults with a bachelor's degree ($49,900) were 66 percent higher than the median earnings of young adult high school completers ($30,000). The median earnings of young adult high school completers were 20 percent higher than the median earnings of those without a high school credential ($25,000). In addition, median earnings of young adults with a master's or higher degree were $59,100 in 2014, some 18 percent higher than the median earnings of young adults with a bachelor's degree. This pattern of higher earnings associated with higher levels of educational attainment also held for both male and female young adults as well as for White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian young adults.
    Its completely untrue, its just an easy way to generate clicks from people frustrated with student debt or college.

    I have a Bachelor's and have never made over 24k/year. Though I also live in Missouri so.. sucks to be me?

  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    @PantsB thank you for doing the yeoman's work of posting quality data in this thread. It's depressing to see how effectively selective reporting has conveyed such a dismal impression of the labor market.

    The facts are that inflation-adjusted wages are up, unemployment is low by any measure, and prime-age labor participation is looking good. Who is to say what the 'right' LFPR is anyway. The whole thing reflects a trade off.

    To everyone who thinks the labor market sucks right now: this is about the best it gets outside of a boom. There's every reason to believe the only way forward is (temporarily) down when the next recession hits. My sympathies if your personal economic situation sucks at the moment. That is not representative of the broader labor market.

    PantsBCauld
  • PaladinPaladin Registered User regular
    Knowing that I'm in a staggeringly small minority in terms of educational debt load has relieved me of the mistaken belief that my problems will be solved by any administration. The thought that we got to a pretty good economic situation under a Republican Congress has caused me to doubt my economic beliefs.

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  • OghulkOghulk biggest externality low-energy economistRegistered User regular
    To be honest the president and federal government doesn't have that much sway over the economy outside of a major stimulus package and regulations.

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  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    edited February 2017
    Seriously for me college will not have "paid off" till 20 years after freshman year.

    I would have been far better served by just doing help desk IT straight out of vocational school.

    Sleep on
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  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    Does someone have a graph of college tuition, student debt, and incomes adjusted for inflation? I'm curious whther it really has gone crazy.

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  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    Polaritie wrote: »
    Does someone have a graph of college tuition, student debt, and incomes adjusted for inflation? I'm curious whther it really has gone crazy.

    Tuition is difficult to measure because schools have simultaneously raised headline prices while also increasing scholarships and discounts. This is both for reasons of psychological pricing ($50K/year school, act now and it's only $25K!) and price discrimination (higher tuition for higher incomes). There are entire studies on changes in "real" tuition rates.

    But I don't think this is the college affordability thread.

  • furlionfurlion Riskbreaker Lea MondeRegistered User regular
    If you can do a 4 year degree ,at a public college ,and come out under 60k you did something magical. I have a bachelor's and have never come close to using it. Like never even bothered applying to a job requiring it. Why? How many colleges tell you the job market for that particular degree up front? Or even better fail to mention that the only thing your degree is really good for, is getting a graduate degree. Whoops.

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  • PaladinPaladin Registered User regular
    enc0re wrote: »
    Polaritie wrote: »
    Does someone have a graph of college tuition, student debt, and incomes adjusted for inflation? I'm curious whther it really has gone crazy.

    Tuition is difficult to measure because schools have simultaneously raised headline prices while also increasing scholarships and discounts. This is both for reasons of psychological pricing ($50K/year school, act now and it's only $25K!) and price discrimination (higher tuition for higher incomes). There are entire studies on changes in "real" tuition rates.

    But I don't think this is the college affordability thread.

    I think that the core issue of unemployment, underemployment, and the even deeper issue of having a career that puts food on the table while allowing you to pursue life goals is how we train people to become productive members of society, from kindergarten to continuing education. People have to be their own business managers years before they submit their first tax return, and 'going with the flow' of traditional education has gone from mediocre to dangerous in terms of career and life satisfaction.

    Marty: The future, it's where you're going?
    Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
  • MillMill Registered User regular
    To hit on a couple of things.

    1. Towns dying out due to not having any jobs is a really hard issue to address. Unfortunately, for many of the towns that have died out, relocation is probably the only real solution. It's a solution that many of these people don't want hear because moving not only costs money, it means leaving an area they feel deeply attached to. Also I doubt commuting is an option for these people because they likely can't get the jobs to afford doing so and commuting an hour or more to work is fucking awful for a variety of reasons.

    That leaves the towns that are in danger of dying out because they only have one major employer and there isn't a great solution to that either. The best outcome would be to bring in more employers and industries so that the local job market is diversified and can survive one major employer going out of business. Granted, to make that happen you'd need something to motivate businesses to move there and that is a tall order; especially, when many of the big cities already offer what many business are looking for in regards to an employee applicant pool and technology is creating cases where certain types of infrastructure is finite (I believe it's dark fiber is a great example of this).

    We could maybe look into preventing or minimizing the emergence of single industry towns, to at least cut down on the number of people that are experience unemployment in areas that are essentially job deserts.

    2. Now I'm going to comment on the current place of the discussing. I mentioned in the OP we had an issue where there weren't enough people for certain trades. I don't think we need to limit how many degrees we hand out. What we do need to do is end the society wide attitude that poo-poos non-college degree jobs. Our society has forced too many people that aren't cut out for college (be that due to aptitude, discipline or deposition) or wouldn't enjoy working in fields that require a college degree into college. It's create an issue where there aren't enough qualified workers for certain fields and creates a gloats of candidates for a number of fields (a good chunk of whom, might be rather mediocre, but they aren't motivated to work for something that pass less, that they might enjoy because they have massive student loan debts. I also feel that bringing both home economics and shop class to public education, would help greatly with tackling this issue.

    As for college. My suggestion for anyone that is starting a college degree or has family that is starting (kids, grandkids, siblings, cousins, nephews, nieces), is to go through a community college first if the rid isn't free. It's cheaper. I find the instruction can be a bit better due to smaller classes and all the professors being there to primarily teach (aka there aren't any there that primarily research and leave the class mostly to a student teacher). It gives you an associates degree in two years and that degree often covers everything that a fair number of employers want people to have in the way of skills. Since it gives a degree in two years, and at a cheaper price, it's an out for those that find they don't care for or can't cut it in college or in the fields that need college degrees. Also handy if you run into the situation I did where you end up having a huge health issue due to an undiagnosed health issue or in my case they knew something was up, but couldn't treat it because they didn't know what it was.

    Honestly, getting training, certificates and degrees in the new job market has become problematic. Some of that is because of the bullshit costs, but there is also the issue of how quickly the job market has been changing. It's kind of hard to justify spending money and time on this stuff, when it's quite possible that the market will want something else after the training has been completed. Granted someone of that comes down to employers make unreasonable demands for what they expect people to do to even get an interview.

    Ticaldfjam
  • NSDFRandNSDFRand FloridaRegistered User regular
    RE Trades: I don't think it's just an issue of people not wanting to be plumbers, electricians, welders, carpenters, masons, heavy equipment operators etc. It's also an issue of actually breaking into those trades. In my experience there are association barriers even when specific unions don't exist. Combine this with non existent standardized trade education and you have people with a wide range of quality trade education attempting to break into trades in which knowing someone already in said trade is de facto more important than said trade education.

    Additionally I think this cry that not enough people want to get into the trades is used only to bludgeon others when people in those trades absolutely do not want people flooding the labor pool and causing their wages to bottom out. There are 360k welders in the country commanding an average of $17 an hour who will turn into 360k irate rioters when the job market is suddenly flooded and the average wage drops to $10 an hour.

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  • Captain MarcusCaptain Marcus now arrives the hour of actionRegistered User regular
    NSDFRand wrote: »
    It's also an issue of actually breaking into those trades. In my experience there are association barriers even when specific unions don't exist.
    Agreed. There's a section on the New York state civil service website for "high school/minimal experience". A plant maintainer (the gateway to more skilled trades) requires two full years of general construction/contracting experience to even apply, or over 30 credit hours from an accresited vocational school.

    No job trains people anymore. We're forced to pay $TEXAS for our own job training and there's no guarantee that when we enter the job market we'll even be hired. It's definitely the most bullshit part of being a young person nowadays.

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  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    Mill wrote: »
    To hit on a couple of things.

    1. Towns dying out due to not having any jobs is a really hard issue to address. Unfortunately, for many of the towns that have died out, relocation is probably the only real solution. It's a solution that many of these people don't want hear because moving not only costs money, it means leaving an area they feel deeply attached to. Also I doubt commuting is an option for these people because they likely can't get the jobs to afford doing so and commuting an hour or more to work is fucking awful for a variety of reasons.

    That leaves the towns that are in danger of dying out because they only have one major employer and there isn't a great solution to that either. The best outcome would be to bring in more employers and industries so that the local job market is diversified and can survive one major employer going out of business. Granted, to make that happen you'd need something to motivate businesses to move there and that is a tall order; especially, when many of the big cities already offer what many business are looking for in regards to an employee applicant pool and technology is creating cases where certain types of infrastructure is finite (I believe it's dark fiber is a great example of this).

    We could maybe look into preventing or minimizing the emergence of single industry towns, to at least cut down on the number of people that are experience unemployment in areas that are essentially job deserts.

    2. Now I'm going to comment on the current place of the discussing. I mentioned in the OP we had an issue where there weren't enough people for certain trades. I don't think we need to limit how many degrees we hand out. What we do need to do is end the society wide attitude that poo-poos non-college degree jobs. Our society has forced too many people that aren't cut out for college (be that due to aptitude, discipline or deposition) or wouldn't enjoy working in fields that require a college degree into college. It's create an issue where there aren't enough qualified workers for certain fields and creates a gloats of candidates for a number of fields (a good chunk of whom, might be rather mediocre, but they aren't motivated to work for something that pass less, that they might enjoy because they have massive student loan debts. I also feel that bringing both home economics and shop class to public education, would help greatly with tackling this issue.

    As for college. My suggestion for anyone that is starting a college degree or has family that is starting (kids, grandkids, siblings, cousins, nephews, nieces), is to go through a community college first if the rid isn't free. It's cheaper. I find the instruction can be a bit better due to smaller classes and all the professors being there to primarily teach (aka there aren't any there that primarily research and leave the class mostly to a student teacher). It gives you an associates degree in two years and that degree often covers everything that a fair number of employers want people to have in the way of skills. Since it gives a degree in two years, and at a cheaper price, it's an out for those that find they don't care for or can't cut it in college or in the fields that need college degrees. Also handy if you run into the situation I did where you end up having a huge health issue due to an undiagnosed health issue or in my case they knew something was up, but couldn't treat it because they didn't know what it was.

    Honestly, getting training, certificates and degrees in the new job market has become problematic. Some of that is because of the bullshit costs, but there is also the issue of how quickly the job market has been changing. It's kind of hard to justify spending money and time on this stuff, when it's quite possible that the market will want something else after the training has been completed. Granted someone of that comes down to employers make unreasonable demands for what they expect people to do to even get an interview.

    Its also a cheaper way to start a 4-year in some places. Community colleges in MN have a program that counts for all the general requirements at the U of M.

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  • MeeqeMeeqe Lord of the pants most fancy Someplace amazingRegistered User regular
    Polaritie wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    To hit on a couple of things.

    1. Towns dying out due to not having any jobs is a really hard issue to address. Unfortunately, for many of the towns that have died out, relocation is probably the only real solution. It's a solution that many of these people don't want hear because moving not only costs money, it means leaving an area they feel deeply attached to. Also I doubt commuting is an option for these people because they likely can't get the jobs to afford doing so and commuting an hour or more to work is fucking awful for a variety of reasons.

    That leaves the towns that are in danger of dying out because they only have one major employer and there isn't a great solution to that either. The best outcome would be to bring in more employers and industries so that the local job market is diversified and can survive one major employer going out of business. Granted, to make that happen you'd need something to motivate businesses to move there and that is a tall order; especially, when many of the big cities already offer what many business are looking for in regards to an employee applicant pool and technology is creating cases where certain types of infrastructure is finite (I believe it's dark fiber is a great example of this).

    We could maybe look into preventing or minimizing the emergence of single industry towns, to at least cut down on the number of people that are experience unemployment in areas that are essentially job deserts.

    2. Now I'm going to comment on the current place of the discussing. I mentioned in the OP we had an issue where there weren't enough people for certain trades. I don't think we need to limit how many degrees we hand out. What we do need to do is end the society wide attitude that poo-poos non-college degree jobs. Our society has forced too many people that aren't cut out for college (be that due to aptitude, discipline or deposition) or wouldn't enjoy working in fields that require a college degree into college. It's create an issue where there aren't enough qualified workers for certain fields and creates a gloats of candidates for a number of fields (a good chunk of whom, might be rather mediocre, but they aren't motivated to work for something that pass less, that they might enjoy because they have massive student loan debts. I also feel that bringing both home economics and shop class to public education, would help greatly with tackling this issue.

    As for college. My suggestion for anyone that is starting a college degree or has family that is starting (kids, grandkids, siblings, cousins, nephews, nieces), is to go through a community college first if the rid isn't free. It's cheaper. I find the instruction can be a bit better due to smaller classes and all the professors being there to primarily teach (aka there aren't any there that primarily research and leave the class mostly to a student teacher). It gives you an associates degree in two years and that degree often covers everything that a fair number of employers want people to have in the way of skills. Since it gives a degree in two years, and at a cheaper price, it's an out for those that find they don't care for or can't cut it in college or in the fields that need college degrees. Also handy if you run into the situation I did where you end up having a huge health issue due to an undiagnosed health issue or in my case they knew something was up, but couldn't treat it because they didn't know what it was.

    Honestly, getting training, certificates and degrees in the new job market has become problematic. Some of that is because of the bullshit costs, but there is also the issue of how quickly the job market has been changing. It's kind of hard to justify spending money and time on this stuff, when it's quite possible that the market will want something else after the training has been completed. Granted someone of that comes down to employers make unreasonable demands for what they expect people to do to even get an interview.

    Its also a cheaper way to start a 4-year in some places. Community colleges in MN have a program that counts for all the general requirements at the U of M.

    WA does the same, the state community college associate degrees are designed to get you into a 4 year institution as a junior, and you pretty much only have upper division classes for your major left to do.

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  • MillMill Registered User regular
    I figured I'd dust this off, now that the retail job market is looking worse.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-has-been-silent-on-retail-job-losses-2017-4

    Honestly, I haven't been paying too much attention to the retail job market, but that is worrisome. It shows we as a society haven't done anything to minimize the negative impacts of the changing labor market and it's interactions with the overall economy. I knew at some point we'd see a snowball effect result from the increased automation, stagnant wages and greedy assholes making the income inequality issue worse. I imagine a decent chunk of this is a result of the middle class shrinking and both the middle and lower classes having less money to spend. With less goods being bought, retailers will feel they need less people to man the stores (in some cases that is an accurate assessment, but as we can see in the article, there are cases where that assessment is idiotic). Amazon and other online retailers are also having an impact here. Really, this is one of the reasons, why innovations with driver-less cars have me so worried because we have nothing in place to minimize the snow ball effect from anything that reduces the total number of jobs.

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