It seems by reporting that it was just a social media hoax but to this point Erdogan hasn’t made an “I AIN’T DEAD” statement which is somewhat baffling.
lwt1973King of ThievesSyndicationRegistered Userregular
Big secret meeting with the airlines about subsidies given to the Middle East airlines of Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways -- by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The airlines thought Trump would be on their side but SURPRISE he wasn't and according to reports:
In the end, Trump told the airline CEOs to take their issues to the Department of Transportation, according to NBC News -- where it had already been determined that the three American companies would lose.
Also a big reason why Trump took the meeting was because the airlines took massive ad time during Fox and Friends which Trump watches.
"He's sulking in his tent like Achilles! It's the Iliad?...from Homer?! READ A BOOK!!" -Handy
"He's sulking in his tent like Achilles! It's the Iliad?...from Homer?! READ A BOOK!!" -Handy
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
I had been figuring the National Enquirer was deep in the pockets of Russia, but possibly they were in Saudia Arabia's pocket (specifically MBS's) instead? Or possibly both, seeing as the FBI is investigating and they carefully skirt around anything that might involve Trump such as Russian connections.
At any rate, the allegations are that since the Washington Post was causing an uproar about the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, and Jeff Bezos owns the Post, the Saudis stole Bezos' personal information (such as the evidence of his affair) and gave it to the National Enquirer as part of a revenge plot for making MBS look bad. And seeing as the National Enquirer had links to the Saudis and MBS, even printing a 97 page magazine gushing over him, it's not hard to assume that there were deep links between the two.
The latest nation dealing with the fallout of sex tapes of politicians is...Iran? (Possibly NSFW, heavily blurred nudity)
In Iran, everyone is talking about the sextapes of two Iranian politicians that were leaked on social media in early August. This is the first time that such compromising videos of politicians have been leaked since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. For many Iranians, these videos highlight the hypocrisy of those who fervently defend Islamic morality.
The city of Aden, Yemen's second city and essentially the capital of southern Yemen since the civil war started, has been engulfed by pitched battles between UAE-backed southern separatists and the Saudi-backed forces of Hadi's beleaguered government which the Houthis ousted from Sanaa in 2015. UAE jets are bombing Hadi-aligned forces. This war started with a Saudi-UAE led coalition intervening on Hadi's behalf to try to oust the Houthis and restore the previous government, but has now devolved into a confusing three or four way conflict between Saudi-aligned forces, UAE-backed separatists, the Houthis in the north, and sometimes al-Qaeda.
The latest nation dealing with the fallout of sex tapes of politicians is...Iran? (Possibly NSFW, heavily blurred nudity)
In Iran, everyone is talking about the sextapes of two Iranian politicians that were leaked on social media in early August. This is the first time that such compromising videos of politicians have been leaked since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. For many Iranians, these videos highlight the hypocrisy of those who fervently defend Islamic morality.
This phrasing makes it sound like the '79 revolution was preceded by a wave of high-profile sex tapes.
Are we going to see a Saudi-UAE split like we did with Qutar and the Saudis?
I don't think it will go that far, though I could be wrong. I think the two still share enough regional interests that they'll continue to find common ground, whereas Qatar was opposed to both on many fronts. And the KSA probably won't want to further divide the Gulf monarchies in the context of their regional struggle with Iran. I don't think they care too much about Hadi or a united Yemen per se, they just fear the Houthis and want them removed from Sanaa (which seems less likely than ever now that the southern factions are at war).
But who knows, MBS is erratic and has continually surprised me with his decisions.
Kaputa on
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
Don't worry everyone! There's a new Middle East envoy from the US who will surely fix everything now! His name is Ari Berkowitz, he is 29 years old, and his qualifications are...he was Jared Kushner's coffee boy.
Somehow, there is always someone even less competent they can find to fill a gap. He's probably a junior grifter too, considering how literally the rest of the regime works.
For those unfamiliar, Ol' "Don't Give Peace a Chance" Bolton was a leading warhawk going back to Reagan-Bush years in a smaller capacity, one of the many terrible violent sociopaths sent by the United States to serve as ambassador to the UN, and until today National Security Adviser. He was admired by Republicans for wanting war with Iran before it was popular, and admired by Democrats for insisting that any negotiation with North Korean leaders should have Pyongyang's complete political submission as a minimum prerequisite.
Article notes that, even if this promise doesn't materialize, it may still shift the overton window past any hope of a two state solution.
I had assumed that that point had already been reached when we (Trump) recognized Jerusalem and giggled about the annexation of Golan Heights, but alright.
How does he intend to prevent the current residents from voting? Would he forcibly evict absolutely everyone, or keep them as a permanent non-citizen underclass?
How does he intend to prevent the current residents from voting? Would he forcibly evict absolutely everyone, or keep them as a permanent non-citizen underclass?
The Palestinian residents of the WB can't vote in Israeli elections. The settler residents will vote in favor of annexation.
Post election, I assume the plan is to ship the Palestinians to Madagascar, and when that proves impossible, come up with some other… solution.
Hitler's original plan was to ship the Jews to Madagascar. When that fell through for so many good reasons, he needed another, final, solution.
How does he intend to prevent the current residents from voting? Would he forcibly evict absolutely everyone, or keep them as a permanent non-citizen underclass?
I think the plan is to shuffle them into increasingly smaller ghettos that are technically autonomous and thus non-voting but in practice are subject to Israeli laws and authority.
See the little bit of orange on that map, that is the Palestinian reservation. The way this works is that any Palestinians outside that area will be “encouraged” to move there. This will probably be done at least at first by non-governmental actors - vandalism, fights, etc, with police giving a response of “you are off the reservation what can we do?”
This is all pretty much straight out of the South Africa/ 1800s America playbook.
Again, this is just the first part of the vote and sadly based on some exit polling. So possible that Likud does better, but still falls short having the numbers to form a coalition government. There is actually a chance that they might have to dissolve the parliament created by this election and have another election early next year.
The third largest party in the Knesset is the Joint List of Arab parties, with 13 seats. It is followed by ultra-Orthodox party Shas, which gets nine seats and United Torah Judaism, which gets eight seats. Ayelet Shaked's Yamina gets seven seats, the results indicate, Labor-Gesher get six and Democratic Union get five seats.
I am curious how many votes they will go through before they get a PM that can command even a slim majority. It pretty much looks like this one is going the way of their last one and possibly even more unfavorably to netanyahu.
The third largest party in the Knesset is the Joint List of Arab parties, with 13 seats. It is followed by ultra-Orthodox party Shas, which gets nine seats and United Torah Judaism, which gets eight seats. Ayelet Shaked's Yamina gets seven seats, the results indicate, Labor-Gesher get six and Democratic Union get five seats.
Man, the Labor party has really fallen apart.
So the 'moderate-left' party could really make international history here by actually leaning left to make a coalition.
Not really? It would be a minority government in that case.
I think israel has elected a government fundamentally incapable of doing much other than putting Netanyahu in prison and Orthodox Jews in the army.
Which... is at least a sort of progress?
Oh, my mistake, reading comprehension (and arithmetic) failure. Thought Gantz had 56 by himself and just needed to pickup one of the smaller parties; but Lieberman's right-wingers were the only option under consideration for shitty centrist reasons.
Not really? It would be a minority government in that case.
I think israel has elected a government fundamentally incapable of doing much other than putting Netanyahu in prison and Orthodox Jews in the army.
Which... is at least a sort of progress?
Oh, my mistake, reading comprehension (and arithmetic) failure. Thought Gantz had 56 by himself and just needed to pickup one of the smaller parties; but Lieberman's right-wingers were the only option under consideration for shitty centrist reasons.
(Gantz has 56 with the left-wingers)
Yeah they are in some weird game theory fuckfest.
Like Gantz has 56, Netanyahu has 55, but those include the Arab parties for Gantz and the orthodox for Netanyahu.
Leiberman has enough to put either side over the top, but if Gantz includes Leiberman the Arabs are out and if Netanyahu includes Leiberman the Orthodox parties are out.
Without either the Arabs or the Orthodox parties Leiberman+ Either major party doesn’t hold a majority. But if either side freezes out Lieberman their government would be a minority and could get overturned at will by Leiberman.
So yeah. I could see the two main parties and Lieberman forming a hard center coalition, but I don’t think Gantz or Leiberman will work with Netanyahu as a coalition partner. So I think right now the most likely outcome is Leiberman gets his orthodox conscription, Netanyahu gets fucked, and beyond that either a business as usual centrist government or a new election.
From what I got from a few articles, that current coalition doesn't include the Joint List. No idea how viable it would be for Gant's current coalition to include them because it's possible someone jumps ship upon them being included. If it is a viable route, they might be an option given that Liberman's right-wingers are already making noise about not joining a government unless it's a unity ticket that includes Blue & White and Likud. If I were Gantz, I'd probably turn that down if I had another option because the right wing parties probably force him into a position that's going to hurt him in future votes, looking at how that has gone for coalition governments in other countries that had similar setups. Also possible that Likud really insists on Netanyahu keeping power and that is a deal breaker for Gantz. Gantz only needs a coalition of 61 minimum, obviously, higher is better and if current numbers hold his current coalition plus Joint list would be 69 (56 from the coalition + 13 from joint list). Of course, the vote isn't done, so it's quite possible for those figures to shift a few seats in either direction, but unlikely that Gantz gets a traditional coalition of 61 and again, 61 is probably not an ideal number. Sure it's you the majority by your one vote away from everything going to pieces.
From what I got from a few articles, that current coalition doesn't include the Joint List. No idea how viable it would be for Gant's current coalition to include them because it's possible someone jumps ship upon them being included. If it is a viable route, they might be an option given that Liberman's right-wingers are already making noise about not joining a government unless it's a unity ticket that includes Blue & White and Likud. If I were Gantz, I'd probably turn that down if I had another option because the right wing parties probably force him into a position that's going to hurt him in future votes, looking at how that has gone for coalition governments in other countries that had similar setups. Also possible that Likud really insists on Netanyahu keeping power and that is a deal breaker for Gantz. Gantz only needs a coalition of 61 minimum, obviously, higher is better and if current numbers hold his current coalition plus Joint list would be 69 (56 from the coalition + 13 from joint list). Of course, the vote isn't done, so it's quite possible for those figures to shift a few seats in either direction, but unlikely that Gantz gets a traditional coalition of 61 and again, 61 is probably not an ideal number. Sure it's you the majority by your one vote away from everything going to pieces.
As far as I can tell the Gantz coalition numbers include the Joint List, similar to how the Likud one includes Yamina.
Not really? It would be a minority government in that case.
I think israel has elected a government fundamentally incapable of doing much other than putting Netanyahu in prison and Orthodox Jews in the army.
Which... is at least a sort of progress?
Oh, my mistake, reading comprehension (and arithmetic) failure. Thought Gantz had 56 by himself and just needed to pickup one of the smaller parties; but Lieberman's right-wingers were the only option under consideration for shitty centrist reasons.
(Gantz has 56 with the left-wingers)
Yeah they are in some weird game theory fuckfest.
Like Gantz has 56, Netanyahu has 55, but those include the Arab parties for Gantz and the orthodox for Netanyahu.
Leiberman has enough to put either side over the top, but if Gantz includes Leiberman the Arabs are out and if Netanyahu includes Leiberman the Orthodox parties are out.
Without either the Arabs or the Orthodox parties Leiberman+ Either major party doesn’t hold a majority. But if either side freezes out Lieberman their government would be a minority and could get overturned at will by Leiberman.
So yeah. I could see the two main parties and Lieberman forming a hard center coalition, but I don’t think Gantz or Leiberman will work with Netanyahu as a coalition partner. So I think right now the most likely outcome is Leiberman gets his orthodox conscription, Netanyahu gets fucked, and beyond that either a business as usual centrist government or a new election.
Thank you for this analysis. I've read several lengthy articles about the complex, shifting alliances and coalition's forming in recent months and still haven't understood the political scene in Israel. It seems like a total mess.
What are the chances of Likud dropping Netanyahu? Last comment I saw from a Likud official it looked like the they would only form a coalition with Kahol Lavan if the latter dropped the requirement that Netanyahu be removed.
Posts
I can't imagine the NYT publishing an op-ed about Israel saying the same thing and treating it as reasonable.
(that hurt to type)
But wait, it gets worse:
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
It's been repaired, and you'll never guess where it's headed now in order to complete its delivery!
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
In news that could only be described as "I'll take 'No Shit Alex' for $100"
The reason that Trump scrapped the Iran Nuclear Deal.
What is Spite for Obama?
Also a big reason why Trump took the meeting was because the airlines took massive ad time during Fox and Friends which Trump watches.
Seriously. Fuck NBC.
So where did the Apprentice run again?
Oh yeah.
At any rate, the allegations are that since the Washington Post was causing an uproar about the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, and Jeff Bezos owns the Post, the Saudis stole Bezos' personal information (such as the evidence of his affair) and gave it to the National Enquirer as part of a revenge plot for making MBS look bad. And seeing as the National Enquirer had links to the Saudis and MBS, even printing a 97 page magazine gushing over him, it's not hard to assume that there were deep links between the two.
This phrasing makes it sound like the '79 revolution was preceded by a wave of high-profile sex tapes.
... Wait, was it?
But who knows, MBS is erratic and has continually surprised me with his decisions.
Somehow, there is always someone even less competent they can find to fill a gap. He's probably a junior grifter too, considering how literally the rest of the regime works.
For those unfamiliar, Ol' "Don't Give Peace a Chance" Bolton was a leading warhawk going back to Reagan-Bush years in a smaller capacity, one of the many terrible violent sociopaths sent by the United States to serve as ambassador to the UN, and until today National Security Adviser. He was admired by Republicans for wanting war with Iran before it was popular, and admired by Democrats for insisting that any negotiation with North Korean leaders should have Pyongyang's complete political submission as a minimum prerequisite.
We'll miss you, Bigjohn of House Bolton.
https://www.vox.com/world/2019/9/10/20859101/israel-netanyahu-jordan-valley-annex-election-september
Article notes that, even if this promise doesn't materialize, it may still shift the overton window past any hope of a two state solution.
I had assumed that that point had already been reached when we (Trump) recognized Jerusalem and giggled about the annexation of Golan Heights, but alright.
Tweet from the article with the proposed map:
(Times of Israel journo)
The Palestinian residents of the WB can't vote in Israeli elections. The settler residents will vote in favor of annexation.
Post election, I assume the plan is to ship the Palestinians to Madagascar, and when that proves impossible, come up with some other… solution.
I think the plan is to shuffle them into increasingly smaller ghettos that are technically autonomous and thus non-voting but in practice are subject to Israeli laws and authority.
See the little bit of orange on that map, that is the Palestinian reservation. The way this works is that any Palestinians outside that area will be “encouraged” to move there. This will probably be done at least at first by non-governmental actors - vandalism, fights, etc, with police giving a response of “you are off the reservation what can we do?”
This is all pretty much straight out of the South Africa/ 1800s America playbook.
Saudi Arabia's oil production just got cut in half, so expect this to be a Big Deal ™
Again, this is just the first part of the vote and sadly based on some exit polling. So possible that Likud does better, but still falls short having the numbers to form a coalition government. There is actually a chance that they might have to dissolve the parliament created by this election and have another election early next year.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Man, the Labor party has really fallen apart.
So the 'moderate-left' party could really make international history here by actually leaning left to make a coalition.
Wouldn't that be something.
I think israel has elected a government fundamentally incapable of doing much other than putting Netanyahu in prison and Orthodox Jews in the army.
Which... is at least a sort of progress?
Oh, my mistake, reading comprehension (and arithmetic) failure. Thought Gantz had 56 by himself and just needed to pickup one of the smaller parties; but Lieberman's right-wingers were the only option under consideration for shitty centrist reasons.
(Gantz has 56 with the left-wingers)
Yeah they are in some weird game theory fuckfest.
Like Gantz has 56, Netanyahu has 55, but those include the Arab parties for Gantz and the orthodox for Netanyahu.
Leiberman has enough to put either side over the top, but if Gantz includes Leiberman the Arabs are out and if Netanyahu includes Leiberman the Orthodox parties are out.
Without either the Arabs or the Orthodox parties Leiberman+ Either major party doesn’t hold a majority. But if either side freezes out Lieberman their government would be a minority and could get overturned at will by Leiberman.
So yeah. I could see the two main parties and Lieberman forming a hard center coalition, but I don’t think Gantz or Leiberman will work with Netanyahu as a coalition partner. So I think right now the most likely outcome is Leiberman gets his orthodox conscription, Netanyahu gets fucked, and beyond that either a business as usual centrist government or a new election.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
As far as I can tell the Gantz coalition numbers include the Joint List, similar to how the Likud one includes Yamina.
Steam: CavilatRest
Steam: CavilatRest