The Middle East - bOUTeflika

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  • finnithfinnith TorontoRegistered User regular
    Dbl post, but the inevitable Bolton trash talk is fun to read
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/18/bolton-trump-foreign-policy-1501932

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  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Huh, didn't know Joint List was being including, the article made it sound like they had been factored in yet. Well not the first time I've misread something.

    So this is really going to come down to how obstinate Netanyahu and Likud end up being. Netanyahu staying is likely a deal breaker for Gantz and I got the impression for Lieberman as well. I know Lieberman has said he won't let a third round of elections happen, but given how got more votes by pushing the whole "no one gets out of draft," I don't see how he can have a government with Netanyahu, who will probably insist that the worst offenders for illegal settlements continue not have to deal with the consequences but make someone else bleed instead, I just don't see how that won't bite him in the ass for a future election (some number of the gained seats can be contributed to the idea of "hey, everyone has to served and no asshats get start shit and then be content knowing they won't bleed, while the rest of us are!"

    With about 10% of the vote to go, I don't see it likely that someone's coalition pulls up with the needed number of votes. Gantz's would need 5 more seats if they are at 56 (last time I checked, a few hours ago, can't really find a source I'm comfortable with, partly because the better ones are asshats that insist I don't run AdBlock and well fuck anyone that insists I let HTML shit run on my machine so they can make a few bucks). It's like 10% still needs to be counted, but seems highly unlikely that percent skews one way or the other, to a degree that it matters.

  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    edited September 2019
    finnith wrote: »
    What are the chances of Likud dropping Netanyahu? Last comment I saw from a Likud official it looked like the they would only form a coalition with Kahol Lavan if the latter dropped the requirement that Netanyahu be removed.

    This was basically the possibility I saw, that there might be some kind of coalition, but the requirement would be that Netanyahu is gone. But of the three possibilities, no one really knows yet, so I don't know the likelihood.

    Fencingsax on
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  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    I doubt Lieberman is going to accept any coalition without a hard promise on the Orthodox conscription thing, and I don’t think Likud with Netanyahu can afford electorally to make that promise.

    Lieberman would lose all electoral credibility if he caved, its the only issue he campaigned on. But by the same token Likud would lose a ton of support if they gave him what he wants on the issue (it would be like the Republicans all the sudden coming out and saying “we have changed our mind on churches being allowed to refuse to do gay weddings, any church that refuses to perform them will lose tax exempt status”).

    So I don’t know really.

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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    From what I've read it seems like there's just a whole bunch of redlines at both the personal and policy level that will make it difficult or even impossible to create a government.
    Bibi is pitching the National Unity government between him and Gantz, likely because as unlikely as that government is, it's probably still slightly more possible than getting Lieberman to cave on the draft and his hatred of Bibi.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    edited September 2019
    Yeah, and it’s also relevant that wanting Netanyahu out and revoking special privileges for ultra orthodox Jews are literally the only policy issues Gantz and Lieberman agree on as well. Its a clusterfuck.

    Its hard to imagine in American terms because secularism/religiosity and the left/right political spectrum are so tied together. The closest thing would be like if there was a Trump republican that was also strongly against the religious right for some reason (like I don’t know, maybe they were a gay woman and really supported gay and womens rights) that got really mad at Trump and left the party.

    So this otherwise hard right lesbian starts a third party that somehow gets 15 Senate seats and 50 house seats, so that no bills can pass without them, and they are strongly in favor of gay rights and abortion rights and against Trump personally but are otherwise strongly conservative bordering on being white nationalist. What happens? Well thats where Israel is.

    Jealous Deva on
  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    edited September 2019
    I doubt Lieberman is going to accept any coalition without a hard promise on the Orthodox conscription thing, and I don’t think Likud with Netanyahu can afford electorally to make that promise.

    Lieberman would lose all electoral credibility if he caved, its the only issue he campaigned on.

    It's also the only reason there was another election in the first place. If he took that issue over to Gantz's coalition, would they support it? Would Liberman's base support that compromise?

    ArbitraryDescriptor on
  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    I doubt Lieberman is going to accept any coalition without a hard promise on the Orthodox conscription thing, and I don’t think Likud with Netanyahu can afford electorally to make that promise.

    Lieberman would lose all electoral credibility if he caved, its the only issue he campaigned on.

    It's also the only reason there was another election in the first place. If he took that issue over to Gantz's coalition, would they support it? Would Liberman's base support that compromise?

    They would probably support him on that issue but they are diametrically opposed on Palestine, which is the problem. As soon as the Orthodox issue is resolved and Netanyahu is gone Lieberman starts having a lot more in common with Likud again. So do you make that coalition if you are Gantz knowing you accomplish a couple of things you are in favor of but then your government falls apart?

    a5ehrenFencingsax
  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    I doubt Lieberman is going to accept any coalition without a hard promise on the Orthodox conscription thing, and I don’t think Likud with Netanyahu can afford electorally to make that promise.

    Lieberman would lose all electoral credibility if he caved, its the only issue he campaigned on.

    It's also the only reason there was another election in the first place. If he took that issue over to Gantz's coalition, would they support it? Would Liberman's base support that compromise?

    They would probably support him on that issue but they are diametrically opposed on Palestine, which is the problem. As soon as the Orthodox issue is resolved and Netanyahu is gone Lieberman starts having a lot more in common with Likud again. So do you make that coalition if you are Gantz knowing you accomplish a couple of things you are in favor of but then your government falls apart?

    Gantz isn't exactly some super hippy type on Palestine though. I think the bigger issue is that Gantz only has the numbers if the Arab list comes on board too. Without them there's only 44 seats, so Lieberman's support doesn't matter.

    I can't even imagine what could possibly be offered to convince the Arab Joint List and Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu to join forces.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    I doubt Lieberman is going to accept any coalition without a hard promise on the Orthodox conscription thing, and I don’t think Likud with Netanyahu can afford electorally to make that promise.

    Lieberman would lose all electoral credibility if he caved, its the only issue he campaigned on.

    It's also the only reason there was another election in the first place. If he took that issue over to Gantz's coalition, would they support it? Would Liberman's base support that compromise?

    They would probably support him on that issue but they are diametrically opposed on Palestine, which is the problem. As soon as the Orthodox issue is resolved and Netanyahu is gone Lieberman starts having a lot more in common with Likud again. So do you make that coalition if you are Gantz knowing you accomplish a couple of things you are in favor of but then your government falls apart?

    Gantz isn't exactly some super hippy type on Palestine though. I think the bigger issue is that Gantz only has the numbers if the Arab list comes on board too. Without them there's only 44 seats, so Lieberman's support doesn't matter.

    I can't even imagine what could possibly be offered to convince the Arab Joint List and Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu to join forces.

    Yeah if throwing the Joint List under the bus was an option Gantz would probably do that but he can’t...

  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    I doubt Lieberman is going to accept any coalition without a hard promise on the Orthodox conscription thing, and I don’t think Likud with Netanyahu can afford electorally to make that promise.

    Lieberman would lose all electoral credibility if he caved, its the only issue he campaigned on.

    It's also the only reason there was another election in the first place. If he took that issue over to Gantz's coalition, would they support it? Would Liberman's base support that compromise?

    They would probably support him on that issue but they are diametrically opposed on Palestine, which is the problem. As soon as the Orthodox issue is resolved and Netanyahu is gone Lieberman starts having a lot more in common with Likud again. So do you make that coalition if you are Gantz knowing you accomplish a couple of things you are in favor of but then your government falls apart?

    Gantz isn't exactly some super hippy type on Palestine though. I think the bigger issue is that Gantz only has the numbers if the Arab list comes on board too. Without them there's only 44 seats, so Lieberman's support doesn't matter.

    I can't even imagine what could possibly be offered to convince the Arab Joint List and Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu to join forces.

    Not draft exemptions because there's no draft!

    Boom. Is the PM residence furnished or do I just get donors to that?

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    So Gantz has said no to Netanyahu. No big shock. So either Gantz somehow manages to convince Lieberman and the Arab List to work together (noooope) or its another round of elections, this time likely with a Netanyahu-less Likud, which will shake things up. Don't know if there's any other possible options.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • MillMill Registered User regular
    This probably leads to another election. One thing that has occurred to me is that Lieberman might not be able to form a government with Netanyahu if he doesn't stick to insistence that no one gets to claim religious exceptions to the draft. I also don't see Lieberman's views and the Joint List being reconcilable, it's probably why he suggested a unity government between his party, Gantz's and Netanyahu's. Otherwise, if they didn't have unreconcilable views, he probably would have suggested leaving the religious right and Netanyahu high and dry.

    Ironically, this is an issue of Israel's own making. Much like how some parts of the US have let the religious right fester and create a demographic of unreasonable people, that hide behind faith to justify some really shitty behavior. Israel is also plagued by the fact that they've done a piss poor job dealing with the Israel-Palestinian conflict. So they have impasse where the religious Jewish moderates and the secular non-Arab members really don't want the super religious calling the shots, but that group can being split into nationalists and those that are not. Neither the religious right nor the secular parts of Israel appear to have a clear majority. This probably wouldn't be an issue for forming the government, if nationalists tended to not often be problematic on a number of issues. I'm not sure on the exact percent, but about a fifth of the electorate of Israel is Arab and IIRC their are Arab Jews, which is probably why the vote for the Joint List netted them about a little above 10 seats instead of closer to 20. Possible some of that is disenfranchisement, but you figure there are probably some heavily rightwing religious types in that demographic that backed a hardline religious party, an Arab oriented party that wasn't part of the Joint List or a secular individual of Arab decent that voted for one of the more secular parties, hell probably a few moderate religious types that went for a more moderate party. Anyways, there are enough individuals of Arab decent that probably don't want their party of choice cozying up to nationalists that don't like them and don't care for the religious right either (likely for some of the same reasons they don't care for the more nationalist parties).

    Both issues probably could have been avoid if Israel had taken more productive steps in regards to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, instead of letting the ideological right of the party dominate because usually the right decides to invite the fundamentalist ideologues of their countries top religion and both often also invite the racists. So now Israel has a problem where they might not having a working government for god knows how long because a ton of people that aren't theocratically oriented don't want live in a theocracy, their is a minority group that feels threatened by the right (both the secular and the religious) and the religious right has enough sway, that they can prevent a government if the other two groups don't trust each other.

    Fencingsax
  • I ZimbraI Zimbra Registered User regular
    The Department of Education has sent a fairly horrifying letter to a Duke/UNC joint Middle East Studies Consortium threatening to revoke their Title VI funding for, I guess, not talking enough about how scary Islam is. Text of the letter is below:



    Sam Thielman is a freelance reporter. Letter starts on the third column of the first image.

    And some (profane, so NSFW) analysis from a professor of Middle Eastern Studies:



    It's some real bullshit.

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  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    Israeli President Rivlin was set to meet with Gantz and Bibi at 1130 EST to declare one the next PM. Bibi now leads Gantz in endorsements 56-55 after three Arab List MPs withdrew their nom for Gantz.

    https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Rivlin-concludes-second-round-of-consultations-602586

    I'm caught in a Vizzini loop* as to which way he'll go, but I guess we should know soon enough.

    Kaputa
  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    Its a minority government either way, tbh. Probably will result in new elections.

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  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    Its a minority government either way, tbh. Probably will result in new elections.

    But he could give it Gantz this time, citing a lack of confidence in Bibi to form a coalition due to [something strongly suggesting Likud find a new leader next time]

  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    edited September 2019
    He could give it to either, but whoever gives it a go the first time will likely fail to form a government, at which time the other will get to have a go at forming a government and fail too. So it’s really probably irrelevant.

    The only real way out is a do-over or negotiated unity government. They might could cobble together some kind of unity government between Blue and White and Likud freezing everyone else out but I have no clue what that would ultimately look like.

    At the very least a lot of Gantz’ electorate would probably see a coalition with a Netanyahu led Likud as a betrayal even if they split prime minister duties or did a rotation or similar.

    Jealous Deva on
    Fencingsax
  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    No decision today, looks like they're trying to negotiate a unity government. Negotiators from the two parties will meet tomorrow, and Rivlin will reconvene with Gantz and Netanyahu Wednesday.
    “The nation expects you to find a solution and prevent additional elections, even if it means paying a personal or ideological price,” Rivlin said.

    https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Rivlin-Gantz-and-Netanyahu-meet-WATCH-602625

  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    (they will not)

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  • honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    France and Germany are follwing the UK in blaming Iran for the KSA drone attack
    https://www.apnews.com/ee973164333e44f4b94ea590590f4ed2

    (Associated Press is a news agency that has problems with placing commata)

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    (they will not)

    Netanyahu's whole goal with these elections is to avoid paying a personal price. He's been promising everything and anything to get support with his only ask being an immunity bill that will keep him out of jail.

    Maybe, just maybe, Lieberman could join up for a Gantz led government (including the Arab list) just long enough for Netanyahu to get indicted. Something that should happen between Oct 2 and the end of the year, assuming the bastard doesn't weasel out of it.

    It's pretty unlikely and I doubt it would last much past Bibi's perp walk, but hatred of Netanyahu might be enough for at least a few weeks.

    Problem is that once Netanyahu is removed a unity government of Blue & White and Likud becomes much more possible. The Arab List might not care, since they're pretty boned regardless, but Lieberman might not be so thrilled to be out of the kingmaker job.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
    Fencingsax
  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Not sure how practiced Rivlin is with political theory and how much he cares about his future in politics. One merit I could see for throwing this to Likud, assuming there will be a third election, is that it's going to piss off a ton of people and likely make the chances of the Likud coalition getting complacent increase. So that could result in them doing even worse on the third run and by god that might make Israel governing, probably not though. Seems likely the person chosen is going to fail, might also be a reason that the three Joint List members refused to sign on, could be a ton, because failing short on making a coalition could demoralize some members, anger others who don't like the partners chosen and thus result in worse results in the next election. Honestly, given what a unity government would entail, If I were anyone not in the Likud coalition, I would refuse to form a government with that coalition because there is going to be blowback and that coalition likely won't last long. Plus, Netanyahu is probably going to be in trail or convicted by the time election three happens and may say even stupider shit before it happens, so very good chance that Likud could perform even worse.

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    The Israeli President is the head of state and not particularly powerful, plus they only serve a single term. I don't think that anyone will be able to form a government, but Rivlin will probably keep pushing on the subject since this is the second election already.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • ProhassProhass Registered User regular
    I’m reading reports that 5000 Saudi linked soldiers were captured by the Houthi, how significant was this to those who know the region?

  • BrainleechBrainleech 機知に富んだコメントはここにあります Registered User regular
    Frontline the pbs show did a deep dive [well a look at the deep end of the pool from the safety of the walkway} at Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Saudi Arabia that did help bring me up to speed about it
    It's nearly 2 hours long

    I did not know Loujain al-Hathloul who drove a car in protest was arrested and held among other things

  • KaputaKaputa Registered User regular
    Prohass wrote: »
    I’m reading reports that 5000 Saudi linked soldiers were captured by the Houthi, how significant was this to those who know the region?
    If the Houthi claims are true, it's their most successful attack on the Saudi military by orders of magnitude, and a stunning defeat for the KSA at the hands of an ostensibly much weaker foe. Coming on the heels of the drone strikes on Saudi oil installations, which already brought regional tensions to the razors edge, such a capture would be very dangerous in terms of war involving the US, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.

    However, I think the Houthi claims are likely exaggerated. They said they would demonstrate the capture with a video yesterday, but the footage they released was unconvincing. From a BBC article:
    But the video broadcast on Sunday instead shows what appear to be rebels firing at vehicles on a road.

    This is followed by footage of several burnt-out vehicles, as well as assorted light weaponry laid out on the ground and a group of men not in military uniforms marching down a dirt road.

  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Total Goober Registered User regular
    There's also a big gap between Saudi supported militia and actual KSA troops.

  • ElkiElki get busy Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited October 2019
    It’s always interesting to find the final straw that causes mass protests, and in Lebanon it turned out to be the WhatsApp tax. Also, holy shit this is scary. This is the education minister and his bodyguards as they’re confronted by a group of protesters; easily could’ve ended disastrously.



    That guy is from Sky News, but it’s not his video.

    Elki on
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  • JepheryJephery Registered User regular
    edited October 2019
    They're trying to save their economy by imposing austerity measures and tax increases? That is economic and political murder-suicide.

    Oh their currency is pegged to the dollar, so they really don't have much of a choice.

    Jephery on
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  • BlackDragon480BlackDragon480 Bluster Kerfuffle Master of Windy ImportRegistered User regular
    Jephery wrote: »
    They're trying to save their economy by imposing austerity measures and tax increases? That is economic and political murder-suicide.

    Oh their currency is pegged to the dollar, so they really don't have much of a choice.

    It's been a double edged sword for them for the last 45 years, pegging to the dollar. It helped keep their pound incredibly stable for a country in the middle of a civil war (well that and Beirut being the premier black market for luxury goods and Soviet bloc armaments in the region) from about 1974-1982 when the Israiles invaded. That plus the wild swings of Reagonmics made the 80s rough on them and it's been yo-yoing ever since.

    First they came for the Muslims and we said...NOT TODAY MOTHERFUCKERS!
  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    3 general elections in one year sounds like hell.

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  • SyphonBlueSyphonBlue Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »

    YEAH GET FUCKED BIBI

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  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    3 general elections in one year sounds like hell.

    Its pretty bad.. beyond the obvious disruption and governmental gridlock, elections are expensive as all hell... Running 3 in a year would be a budget buster anywhere.

  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    There have been massive protests in Iran for the past week, with reports of over a hundred protesters killed across several cities. It's hard to say exactly how extensive, how many deaths, and generally what's going on though because Iran shut down the internet to 95% of the country likely in an attempt to control the international narrative of what's going on, keep the protesters from organizing, or both. The government is now claiming that the protests are over, but it's impossible to say with the effective news blackout from anyone actually on the ground.

    I imagine there will be a lot more of this kind of thing happening in the future from a lot more countries.

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    There was a mass shooting at a naval air station in Florida. You may not have heard about it, or you may be mixing it up with the other mass shooting at a naval base that same week or the daily mass shootings that happen in this country.

    The notable thing about this particular mass shooting though is that it was a Saudi officer at a training class (who then shot his training class). Though right-wingers almost always reflexively start screaming "TERRORISM" anytime someone darker than their pasty selves do anything, this time they're all screaming that "IT'S NOT NECESSARILY TERRORISM" since Trump reflexively defends Saudi Arabia almost as much as he reflexively defends Russia.

    Trump-Saudi-Orb.jpg

    Is it just that and his love of dictators or is Trump owned/controlled by the Saudis too? A question that keeps coming up.

    Kadoken
  • DarkPrimusDarkPrimus premium Registered User regular
    It's okay though, Trump said that the Saudis are going to give a cash payment to the families who were affected.

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  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    Israel passed the deadline for forming a government, so they will have another election in March 2020: https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/11/middleeast/israel-third-election-netanyahu-intl/index.html

    shryke
  • DarkPrimusDarkPrimus premium Registered User regular
    a5ehren wrote: »
    Israel passed the deadline for forming a government, so they will have another election in March 2020: https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/11/middleeast/israel-third-election-netanyahu-intl/index.html

    How does constant failure mean the same person stays in power?

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