The Middle East - bOUTeflika

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  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    edited March 10
    So, you may have hard that there's an oil price war going on between Putin and the Saudis.

    Well, guess who is winning:



    Anasal Hajji is an energy analyst.

    TryCatcher on
  • ElkiElki get busy Moderator, ClubPA mod
    The Saudi escalation still seems to be misguided. The US factored a great deal in the Russian decision to ramp production, so a price shock from the Saudis isn’t going to be enough to convince them to come back to an OPEC+ deal. Make the Russian feel pain and they come back doesn’t make a whole lot of sense when the Russians have other goals besides revenue generation and simple market share.

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  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Yeah, something that isn't often talked about in regards to Russia is that there economy is in the shitter already. This is partly an intentional strategy by Putin to ensure that much of the sting from sanctions is taken out because if your people are use to your economy always being fuck awful, they probably aren't likely to revolt. Thing is they have been completely successful at making themselves completely self-reliant. Last I checked, fossil fuels were a big asset in their foreign trade because until recently, needing them was unavoidable and it's only been recently that we've started to see several alternative energy become competitive enough to start supplanting existing fossil fuel energy sources. Given how backasswards Putin is, I wouldn't be surprised if he hasn't quite grasp that demand for fossil fuels is going to continue to go down.

    Also the guy is an arrogant little shit, that is probably still high off of helping Trump get elected and having something on Trump to get favors. So he likely overplayed his hand here thinking "no inferior country can beat Russia." Problem for him is that Russia is poorly equipped to deal with any sort of economic war against a nation that has some economic muscle and SA has some serious economic muscle. SA just isn't going to blink before Russia because they are in good enough shape to tank the hits until Russia is forced to concede.

  • ElkiElki get busy Moderator, ClubPA mod
    This is an overestimation of the Saudi economy, which has only partly recovered from the last price collapse, and is much more reliant on oil than Russia.

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    So two men with a petrocountry as essentially their personal fiefdoms playing a game of economic chicken to try to out-machismo the other during a pandemic for basically no reason other than testosterone poisoning. Do I have that correct?

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  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So two men with a petrocountry as essentially their personal fiefdoms playing a game of economic chicken to try to out-machismo the other during a pandemic for basically no reason other than testosterone poisoning. Do I have that correct?

    Is not only that, is that oil prices are permanently lower since the shale revolution turned the US into an oil exporter. So, there's a smaller share of the pie for everybody else and they are knifing each other over it.

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  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So two men with a petrocountry as essentially their personal fiefdoms playing a game of economic chicken to try to out-machismo the other during a pandemic for basically no reason other than testosterone poisoning. Do I have that correct?

    I imagine that the Syrian conflict plays into this as well. Edrogan had to go begging to Putin to prevent a hot war, but it looks like the Saudis decided on another strategy.

  • MillMill Registered User regular
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So two men with a petrocountry as essentially their personal fiefdoms playing a game of economic chicken to try to out-machismo the other during a pandemic for basically no reason other than testosterone poisoning. Do I have that correct?

    Is not only that, is that oil prices are permanently lower since the shale revolution turned the US into an oil exporter. So, there's a smaller share of the pie for everybody else and they are knifing each other over it.

    There has also been changes in tech that have reduced the need for oil. Do believe that we still have a fair bit of infrastructure that absolutely needs oil. That said, at least on the fuel front hybrid and electric vehicles have created reduced demand. I'd have tos it down and see what other shit we make out of the awful shit that is oil and how much of that has alternatives that are competitive or cheaper.
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So two men with a petrocountry as essentially their personal fiefdoms playing a game of economic chicken to try to out-machismo the other during a pandemic for basically no reason other than testosterone poisoning. Do I have that correct?

    I imagine that the Syrian conflict plays into this as well. Edrogan had to go begging to Putin to prevent a hot war, but it looks like the Saudis decided on another strategy.

    This could also be a factor in the SA strategy as well. Military expeditions cost money and it wouldn't be the first time that Russia ends up in a poorly planned military adventure and has to run with their tail between their legs because they can't really afford to through money at it. It's really worth remember that the Russian economy is in shambles and is a big reason why sanctions have done little to impact Russia's behavior. Namely, it is a strategy adapted by Putin with the intended goal of making sure they don't feel sanctions and it's been somewhat successful because things economically have been shit in Russia for a very long time before Putin was in charge. Thing is I have some doubt that Russia can weather this for long because of various factors.

  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    The NYT reports that Erdogan gave up:
    BRUSSELS — Turkey has signaled that it is winding down its two-week operation to aid the movement of tens of thousands of people toward Europe, following a tough on-the-ground response from Greek border guards and a tepid diplomatic reaction from European politicians.

    Migrants at the Greek-Turkish land border began to be transported back to Istanbul by bus this week, witnesses at the border said, de-escalating a standoff that initially set off fears of another European migration crisis.

  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    edited March 16


    Maybe no election number 4?

    E: Senior Diplomatic correspondent, Channel 13 News

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  • ElkiElki get busy Moderator, ClubPA mod
    The NYT has a story about MBS’ digital spy, and he’s a character.
    The next year, he appeared on Hack Forums, an online space for aspiring hackers and cybercriminals — and he was almost immediately hacked. He bought malware from another user and soon realized it had infected his computer. He was shocked that a hacker had hacked him.

    “i think he is a very good man and look trusted!!!” he wrote.

    He was tricked at least three more times by the hackers whose services he sought, and three times acknowledged posting while drunk, according to a report on his online footprint by the research group Bellingcat.

    “im on party and drunk and now im really happy,” he wrote. “will go to drink tackila and dance lol.”

    Over his six years on the forum, he made hundreds of posts and donated more than $10,000 to the site, while often inquiring about surveillance technologies, offering high sums for simple services and requesting help with specific targets.

    “IS THERE ANY RAT THAT CAN INFECT MAC PC?” he asked in 2014, referring to a Remote Access Trojan, which can commandeer targeted devices.

    In January 2015, King Abdullah died. King Salman ascended the throne and gave his 29-year-old son, Mohammed bin Salman, tremendous power he would use to make himself the kingdom’s de facto ruler.

    Mr. al-Qahtani’s own hacking skills were limited, but they were enough to save him from being purged from the royal court when King Salman came in and Prince Mohammed took over. American officials who tracked Mr. al-Qahtani’s rise say he recognized early on that the crown prince feared plots by a range of rivals; he convinced Prince Mohammed that his knowledge of the dark electronic arts could help the crown prince prevail. Mr. al-Qahtani became an adviser to the royal court with the rank of minister, and since Saudi Arabia lacked domestic hacking talent, he got a massive budget to shop for the best technologies available on the open market.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/sunday-review/mbs-hacking.html

    Don’t let anyone tell you you can’t be a government minister. You also posted forum at some point, possibly drunk.

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  • honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    There's been a fire in the Moria refugee camp on Lesvos, Greece. Firefighters had problems even reaching it because the camp was intended for around 2000 refugees and currently houses 19000. At least one 6 year old child has died.
    https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/child-dies-in-fire-in-greek-migrant-camp-1.8679732

    I feel so tired.

  • SanderJKSanderJK Crocodylus Pontifex Sinterklasicus Madrid, 3000 ADRegistered User regular
    edited March 16
    That camp had a Covid case today too....
    It's going to get real bad.
    And Greeces current government is very...Trumpian... I how it approaches refugees so expect victim blaming and no help.

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  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Total Goober Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »


    Maybe no election number 4?

    E: Senior Diplomatic correspondent, Channel 13 News

    That would require Joint List to be part of the government, seems unlikely.

  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »


    Maybe no election number 4?

    E: Senior Diplomatic correspondent, Channel 13 News

    That would require Joint List to be part of the government, seems unlikely.

    There was a rumor that the government would last just long enough to pass a bill revising the eligibility rules for who can run/be pm to exclude those currently under indictment for a crime that would be disqualifying if convicted, then dissolve.

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Netanyahu just shut down Israel's courts, which is totally about stopping the spread of the coronavirus and not to delay his own corruption trial. His ally Yuli Edelstein, the speaker of the Knesset refuses to convene the house. The legislature and judiciary are effectively shut down, and Netanyahu has in this power grab effectively made himself Israel's dictator, ruling by fiat.
    Historian Gershom Goremberg, the author of The Unmaking of Israel on the crisis of Israeli democracy, tweeted that “the only recorded death so far in Israel from this virus was the already aging, highly vulnerable democracy.”

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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    Netanyahu just shut down Israel's courts, which is totally about stopping the spread of the coronavirus and not to delay his own corruption trial. His ally Yuli Edelstein, the speaker of the Knesset refuses to convene the house. The legislature and judiciary are effectively shut down, and Netanyahu has in this power grab effectively made himself Israel's dictator, ruling by fiat.
    Historian Gershom Goremberg, the author of The Unmaking of Israel on the crisis of Israeli democracy, tweeted that “the only recorded death so far in Israel from this virus was the already aging, highly vulnerable democracy.”

    cool cool cool. :(

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  • Stabbity StyleStabbity Style Warning: Mothership Reporting Kennewick, WARegistered User regular
    Well, they already got the racist part down at least. Makes sense dictatorship would follow.

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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    I wonder if they're far enough gone to unironically run the rest of the playbook.

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  • Stabbity StyleStabbity Style Warning: Mothership Reporting Kennewick, WARegistered User regular
    I wonder if they're far enough gone to unironically run the rest of the playbook.

    Enough people voted for Netanyahu that it's been in a deadlock for what seems like months and he was promising to do some pretty heinous shit, so it wouldn't surprise me.

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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Likud-Blue-and-White-negotiations-intensifying-622426

    Well so much for fucking THAT.
    In a dramatic turn of events, the Blue and White Party that served as the alternative to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the March 2 election, broke up on Thursday after party head Benny Gantz decided to enter Netanyahu's government.
    The three parties that made up Blue and White - Gantz's Hosen L'Israel, Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid and Moshe Ya'alon's Telem - all went in different directions. Hosen L'Israel is joining the government, Lapid will head the opposition and Telem will split up, with Ya'alon on the outside and MKs Tzvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel in.

    ...

    There will be a rotation in the Prime Minister's Office between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Gantz. Netanyahu's allies will start off as finance minister and Knesset speaker. Gantz will serve as foreign minister, MK Gabi Ashkenzi defense minister and many other MKs from Hosen L'Israel will be ministers.

    The split happened after Gantz decided that he would be the candidate for interim speaker of the Knesset after progress in coalition talks with Likud. Appointing Gantz as speaker gives time for the coalition talks

    I'm not super up on Israeli politics, but I presume this means that Netanyahu wins.

    Kayne Red Robe
  • finnithfinnith TorontoRegistered User regular
    what the FUCK!

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  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Is it way too naive to look at that as succession planning for when Netanyahu goes to prison?

  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Is it way too naive to look at that as succession planning for when Netanyahu goes to prison?

    If I had to make a complete layman's guess, it's that Gantz talked to people and still couldn't make a majority without the Arabic parties, and some of the other people wouldn't support him WITH those parties, so (with the Covid lockdown and everything else) Gantz struck a deal to try to prevent a dictatorship. That's only through a lens of "reads an article once every couple weeks" though.

    Ringo
  • SanderJKSanderJK Crocodylus Pontifex Sinterklasicus Madrid, 3000 ADRegistered User regular
    The proposed rotation is 18 more months of Netanyahu....

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  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    SanderJK wrote: »
    The proposed rotation is 18 more months of Netanyahu....

    Is that enough to get around the statute of limitations?

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    SanderJK wrote: »
    The proposed rotation is 18 more months of Netanyahu....

    Is that enough to get around the statute of limitations?

    He's been indicted already, what he needs is either a bill giving him amnesty or for the courts to stay closed.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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