A few points, and trying to clear up some misconceptions:
1) The Arab League is not involved in this matter. Its mostly Saudi Arabia and somewhat United Arab Emirates that are behind this whole crisis. The others either got on the bandwagon or have been strong armed into it. Here's a full list, note several tiny islands and 3 states without functioning central governments on the list:
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Bahrain
Egypt
Maldives
Yemen
Mauritania
Comoros
Senegal
Libya (Tobruk)
Somaliland
The main players, including Qatar itself, are part of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), but I don't believe the organization has taken action against Qatar.
3) The "blockade" is a bit of misnomer. Saudi controls the only land border with Qatar, and they shut that, as well as not allowing flights. Sea routes remain open... though most of the ports that Qatar relies on are not actually in the country. They have one big port that is still under construction. Iran and Oman and probably others have been flying in fresh food. Because of previous border troubles, I suspect Qatar stockpiled food. To to be clear, its not like the Saudi navy or airforce is preventing 3rd parties from going to Qatar.
Commentary:
Yeah these demands are pretty fucked, I thought they'd be softened compared to the twitter demands I saw a couple weeks ago, but no. Missing is what happens if Qatar fails to comply. This kind of shit can definitely lead to war, though its a bit hard to imagine how that would work out, given the massive US airbase in Qatar. The Saudis are happy starving out Yemen, so maybe they'll try the same thing? That Tillerson seemingly backed this list is... pretty shocking, I'm not sure what to make of that.
edit: so 10 days, that means July 3rd. Christ such a short time limit too.
e:2 (Tillerson's not backed the demands, my mistake)
Wait, please clarify: did Tillerson back this in full? As in, is the official State Department position that Qatar must close down Al Jazeera in 10 days?
Wait, please clarify: did Tillerson back this in full? As in, is the official State Department position that Qatar must close down Al Jazeera in 10 days?
AFAIK he only pushed that KSA should provide a list of "reasonable" demands. AFAIK He has yet to issue a statement on the now official list.
No sane person would consider this list of demands reasonable....but then this is the Trump government.
"The western world sips from a poisonous cocktail: Polarisation, populism, protectionism and post-truth"
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
Wait, please clarify: did Tillerson back this in full? As in, is the official State Department position that Qatar must close down Al Jazeera in 10 days?
AFAIK he only pushed that KSA should provide a list of "reasonable" demands. AFAIK He has yet to issue a statement on the now official list.
No sane person would consider this list of demands reasonable....but then this is the Trump government.
Yes this is right, I misread a statement that Tillerson issued a couple days ago. Tillerson has not backed these recent demands. Sorry.
That Tillerson hasn't immediately come out and said "er no that's not acceptable" is bad though
And not just because they are. Centcom being there might be good for Qatar, but they are still there because the Qatari government lets them be there. It's an arrangement of mutual benefit. The US owes it's support to the country it's using to base thousands of troops.
Isn't by now evident that Trump is willing to throw everyone who isn't himself under the bus? I mean, I thought that the whole his entire life story spelled it out.
More fear mongering about the "shiite crescent" from the Washington Post:
Imagine the scenario: a unified Syria under Assad, the ever more pliant client of Iran and Russia; Hezbollah, tip of the Iranian spear, dominant in Lebanon; Iran, the regional arbiter; and Russia, with its Syrian bases, the outside hegemon.
More fear mongering about the "shiite crescent" from the Washington Post:
Imagine the scenario: a unified Syria under Assad, the ever more pliant client of Iran and Russia; Hezbollah, tip of the Iranian spear, dominant in Lebanon; Iran, the regional arbiter; and Russia, with its Syrian bases, the outside hegemon.
I also like how he describes the "Sunni side" in this regional struggle.
Arrayed on the other side of the great Muslim civil war are the Sunnis, moderate and Western-allied, led by Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Egypt and Jordan — with their Great Power patron, the United States, now (post-Obama) back in action.
"moderate and western allied," as opposed to those uniformly radical Shia
Those lovely western allied fucking Salafist/Wahaabist militias cruising around the Sunni triangle backed by those Moderate Saudis and Erdogan, our bezzie mate
Can Turkey invoke Article 5 for Troops stationed outside of their country? I though there were very specific geographic areas where Article 5 was valid (mostly North America and Europe, cause the US didn't want to be dragged into colonial wars)
How close are Turkey and Iran. I feel the Saudis are risking an axis of Tehran, Ankara, and Moscow of Qatar. Seems very stupid.
Goddamn. It's not enough to take the KSA's side in most Iran-related regional disputes (Syria, Yemen). Any diplomacy must end. How stupid.
The story is finally out. This story is worth quoting here in its entirety because it's important and it's crazy. It's even worse than the previously unverified 10 demands.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries that have cut ties to Qatar issued a steep list of demands Thursday to end the crisis, insisting that their Persian Gulf neighbor shutter Al-Jazeera, cut back diplomatic ties to Iran and close down a Turkish military base in Qatar.
In a 13-point list — presented to the Qataris by Kuwait, which is helping mediate the crisis — the countries also demand that Qatar sever all ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and with other groups including Hezbollah, al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. The Associated Press obtained a copy of the list in Arabic from one of the countries involved in the dispute.
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain cut ties to Qatar this month over allegations the Persian Gulf country funds terrorism — an accusation that President Donald Trump has echoed. Those countries have now given Qatar 10 days to comply with all of the demands, which include paying an unspecified sum in compensation.
According to the list, Qatar must refuse to naturalize citizens from the four countries and expel those currently in Qatar, in what the countries describe as an effort to keep Qatar from meddling in their internal affairs.
They are also demanding that Qatar hand over all individuals who are wanted by those four countries for terrorism; stop funding any extremist entities that are designated as terrorist groups by the U.S.; and provide detailed information about opposition figures that Qatar has funded, ostensibly in Saudi Arabia and the other nations.
Qatar’s government did not have any immediate reaction to the list. Nor did the United States. Earlier this week, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had insisted that Qatar’s neighbors provide a list of demands that was “reasonable and actionable.”
Though Qatar’s neighbors have focused their grievances on alleged Qatari support for extremism, they have also voiced loud concerns about Qatar’s relationship with Iran, the Shiite-led country that is a regional foe for Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-led nations.
The Iran provisions in the document say Qatar must shut down diplomatic posts in Iran, kick out from Qatar any members of the Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard, and only conduct trade and commerce with Iran that complies with U.S. sanctions. Under the 2015 nuclear deal, nuclear-related sanctions on Iran were eased but other sanctions remain in place.
The demands regarding Al-Jazeera, the Doha-based satellite broadcaster, state that Qatar must also shut down all affiliates. That presumably would mean Qatar would have to close down Al-Jazeera’s English-language affiliate. Qatar’s neighbors accuse Al-Jazeera of fomenting unrest in the region and supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.
If Qatar agrees to comply, the list asserts that it will be audited once a month for the first year, and then once per quarter in the second year after it takes effect. For the following 10 years, Qatar would be monitored annually for compliance.
Holy shit.
So uh
This is going to lead to war won't it?
Emperor Franz Joseph really wants an excuse to attack Serbia.
Goddamn. It's not enough to take the KSA's side in most Iran-related regional disputes (Syria, Yemen). Any diplomacy must end. How stupid.
The story is finally out. This story is worth quoting here in its entirety because it's important and it's crazy. It's even worse than the previously unverified 10 demands.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries that have cut ties to Qatar issued a steep list of demands Thursday to end the crisis, insisting that their Persian Gulf neighbor shutter Al-Jazeera, cut back diplomatic ties to Iran and close down a Turkish military base in Qatar.
In a 13-point list — presented to the Qataris by Kuwait, which is helping mediate the crisis — the countries also demand that Qatar sever all ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and with other groups including Hezbollah, al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. The Associated Press obtained a copy of the list in Arabic from one of the countries involved in the dispute.
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain cut ties to Qatar this month over allegations the Persian Gulf country funds terrorism — an accusation that President Donald Trump has echoed. Those countries have now given Qatar 10 days to comply with all of the demands, which include paying an unspecified sum in compensation.
According to the list, Qatar must refuse to naturalize citizens from the four countries and expel those currently in Qatar, in what the countries describe as an effort to keep Qatar from meddling in their internal affairs.
They are also demanding that Qatar hand over all individuals who are wanted by those four countries for terrorism; stop funding any extremist entities that are designated as terrorist groups by the U.S.; and provide detailed information about opposition figures that Qatar has funded, ostensibly in Saudi Arabia and the other nations.
Qatar’s government did not have any immediate reaction to the list. Nor did the United States. Earlier this week, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had insisted that Qatar’s neighbors provide a list of demands that was “reasonable and actionable.”
Though Qatar’s neighbors have focused their grievances on alleged Qatari support for extremism, they have also voiced loud concerns about Qatar’s relationship with Iran, the Shiite-led country that is a regional foe for Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-led nations.
The Iran provisions in the document say Qatar must shut down diplomatic posts in Iran, kick out from Qatar any members of the Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard, and only conduct trade and commerce with Iran that complies with U.S. sanctions. Under the 2015 nuclear deal, nuclear-related sanctions on Iran were eased but other sanctions remain in place.
The demands regarding Al-Jazeera, the Doha-based satellite broadcaster, state that Qatar must also shut down all affiliates. That presumably would mean Qatar would have to close down Al-Jazeera’s English-language affiliate. Qatar’s neighbors accuse Al-Jazeera of fomenting unrest in the region and supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.
If Qatar agrees to comply, the list asserts that it will be audited once a month for the first year, and then once per quarter in the second year after it takes effect. For the following 10 years, Qatar would be monitored annually for compliance.
Holy shit.
So uh
This is going to lead to war won't it?
Emperor Franz Joseph really wants an excuse to attack Serbia.
1 Suppress all publications which "incite hatred and contempt of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy" and are "directed against its territorial integrity".
2 Dissolve the Serbian nationalist organisation Narodna Odbrana ("The People's Defense") and all other such societies in Serbia.
3 Eliminate without delay from schoolbooks and public documents all "propaganda against Austria-Hungary".
4 Remove from the Serbian military and civil administration all officers and functionaries whose names the Austro-Hungarian Government will provide.
5 Accept in Serbia "representatives of the Austro-Hungarian Government" for the "suppression of subversive movements".
6 Bring to trial all accessories to the Archduke's assassination and allow "Austro-Hungarian delegates" (law enforcement officers) to take part in the investigations.
7 Arrest Major Vojislav Tankosić and civil servant Milan Ciganović who were named as participants in the assassination plot.
8 Cease the cooperation of the Serbian authorities in the "traffic in arms and explosives across the frontier"; dismiss and punish the officials of Šabac and Loznica frontier service, "guilty of having assisted the perpetrators of the Sarajevo crime".
9 Provide "explanations" to the Austro-Hungarian Government regarding "Serbian officials" who have expressed themselves in interviews "in terms of hostility to the Austro-Hungarian Government".
10 Notify the Austro-Hungarian Government "without delay" of the execution of the measures comprised in the ultimatum.
Goddamn. It's not enough to take the KSA's side in most Iran-related regional disputes (Syria, Yemen). Any diplomacy must end. How stupid.
The story is finally out. This story is worth quoting here in its entirety because it's important and it's crazy. It's even worse than the previously unverified 10 demands.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries that have cut ties to Qatar issued a steep list of demands Thursday to end the crisis, insisting that their Persian Gulf neighbor shutter Al-Jazeera, cut back diplomatic ties to Iran and close down a Turkish military base in Qatar.
In a 13-point list — presented to the Qataris by Kuwait, which is helping mediate the crisis — the countries also demand that Qatar sever all ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and with other groups including Hezbollah, al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. The Associated Press obtained a copy of the list in Arabic from one of the countries involved in the dispute.
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain cut ties to Qatar this month over allegations the Persian Gulf country funds terrorism — an accusation that President Donald Trump has echoed. Those countries have now given Qatar 10 days to comply with all of the demands, which include paying an unspecified sum in compensation.
According to the list, Qatar must refuse to naturalize citizens from the four countries and expel those currently in Qatar, in what the countries describe as an effort to keep Qatar from meddling in their internal affairs.
They are also demanding that Qatar hand over all individuals who are wanted by those four countries for terrorism; stop funding any extremist entities that are designated as terrorist groups by the U.S.; and provide detailed information about opposition figures that Qatar has funded, ostensibly in Saudi Arabia and the other nations.
Qatar’s government did not have any immediate reaction to the list. Nor did the United States. Earlier this week, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had insisted that Qatar’s neighbors provide a list of demands that was “reasonable and actionable.”
Though Qatar’s neighbors have focused their grievances on alleged Qatari support for extremism, they have also voiced loud concerns about Qatar’s relationship with Iran, the Shiite-led country that is a regional foe for Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-led nations.
The Iran provisions in the document say Qatar must shut down diplomatic posts in Iran, kick out from Qatar any members of the Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard, and only conduct trade and commerce with Iran that complies with U.S. sanctions. Under the 2015 nuclear deal, nuclear-related sanctions on Iran were eased but other sanctions remain in place.
The demands regarding Al-Jazeera, the Doha-based satellite broadcaster, state that Qatar must also shut down all affiliates. That presumably would mean Qatar would have to close down Al-Jazeera’s English-language affiliate. Qatar’s neighbors accuse Al-Jazeera of fomenting unrest in the region and supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.
If Qatar agrees to comply, the list asserts that it will be audited once a month for the first year, and then once per quarter in the second year after it takes effect. For the following 10 years, Qatar would be monitored annually for compliance.
Holy shit.
So uh
This is going to lead to war won't it?
Emperor Franz Joseph really wants an excuse to attack Serbia.
1 Suppress all publications which "incite hatred and contempt of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy" and are "directed against its territorial integrity".
2 Dissolve the Serbian nationalist organisation Narodna Odbrana ("The People's Defense") and all other such societies in Serbia.
3 Eliminate without delay from schoolbooks and public documents all "propaganda against Austria-Hungary".
4 Remove from the Serbian military and civil administration all officers and functionaries whose names the Austro-Hungarian Government will provide.
5 Accept in Serbia "representatives of the Austro-Hungarian Government" for the "suppression of subversive movements".
6 Bring to trial all accessories to the Archduke's assassination and allow "Austro-Hungarian delegates" (law enforcement officers) to take part in the investigations.
7 Arrest Major Vojislav Tankosić and civil servant Milan Ciganović who were named as participants in the assassination plot.
8 Cease the cooperation of the Serbian authorities in the "traffic in arms and explosives across the frontier"; dismiss and punish the officials of Šabac and Loznica frontier service, "guilty of having assisted the perpetrators of the Sarajevo crime".
9 Provide "explanations" to the Austro-Hungarian Government regarding "Serbian officials" who have expressed themselves in interviews "in terms of hostility to the Austro-Hungarian Government".
10 Notify the Austro-Hungarian Government "without delay" of the execution of the measures comprised in the ultimatum.
Yeah I thought these demands looked really similar.
It's almost play-for-play the thing that led to WW1.
Far too many people, some of them in power, believe the world is just like a game of Civilization, in which true coexistence is impossible and it's only a matter of which one colored blob out-conquers, out-techs, or out-cultures all the others.
You're essentially describing Realism. Tl;dr states are unitary rational actors, work to maximize their own self interest, and all states/URAs desire power to ensure self preservation.
Realism doesn't necessarily entail zero-sum conflicts between states though, does it? Or maybe it does/its proponents believe such, but I'm not sure that that actually follows from the basic premises of realism that you've listed.
It does because realism is mainly concerned with power and power is zero sum. (You could also consider an instantaneous vs intertemporal zero sum if you wanted a more expansive definition of power; which is true in most economics constructions as an example)
Alliances work under this framework because two entities can take power from a third.
"Also we're temporarily forgetting that we have one of our primary military bases in the region, which our voting base doesn't know about, so it's cool."
"We have no opinion on your Arab-Arab conflicts, such as your dispute with Kuwait. Secretary Baker has directed me to emphasize the instruction, first given to Iraq in the 1960s, that the Kuwait issue is not associated with America."
"The western world sips from a poisonous cocktail: Polarisation, populism, protectionism and post-truth"
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
The only reason to present a list of demands like, especially this publicly, that is to say "see? see? We tried to reason with them, now look at what they're making us do!" when the list gets rejected.
+9
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BlackDragon480Bluster KerfuffleMaster of Windy ImportRegistered Userregular
The only reason to present a list of demands like, especially this publicly, that is to say "see? see? We tried to reason with them, now look at what they're making us do!" when the list gets rejected.
Yeah, this is the modern equivalent of the old Roman practice of sending envoys abroad to purposefully insult everything they possibly can about their assigned foreign power to try and get the foreign leader to imprison or kill them giving the Romans a valid causus belli.
From the founding of the Republic till the fall of Constantinople, the Roman state claimed to have never engaged in a war of aggression.
No matter where you go...there you are. ~ Buckaroo Banzai
What offensive military capability does Saudi Arabia have against Qatar?
A well equipped military including land, air and sea forces that tend to range from inept to legendarily incompetent. For perspective Kuwait is a larger country both in land mass and population and the Iraqi's overwhelmed it in 2 days.
So what are the odds the Trump admin lets them take Qatar with Saudi assurances they steer clear of US military assets in the country? Bonus points if you can tell me if this is a planned move against Iran or just random stumbling.
The only reason to present a list of demands like, especially this publicly, that is to say "see? see? We tried to reason with them, now look at what they're making us do!" when the list gets rejected.
Yeah, this is the modern equivalent of the old Roman practice of sending envoys abroad to purposefully insult everything they possibly can about their assigned foreign power to try and get the foreign leader to imprison or kill them giving the Romans a valid causus belli.
From the founding of the Republic till the fall of Constantinople, the Roman state claimed to have never engaged in a war of aggression.
Speaking of Casus Belli, given what happened last time we gave an arab state tacit approval to invade a neighbor, were I Saudi Arabia I would be careful regarding any US assurances.
More fear mongering about the "shiite crescent" from the Washington Post:
Imagine the scenario: a unified Syria under Assad, the ever more pliant client of Iran and Russia; Hezbollah, tip of the Iranian spear, dominant in Lebanon; Iran, the regional arbiter; and Russia, with its Syrian bases, the outside hegemon.
Their nightmare scenario was the status quo before the Syrian civil war started.
What seems like a long time ago, I used to tell the joke (here too, I think) that if the Russian Navy ever restored the Soviet Naval Supply Station at Tartus, somehow, it'd mean war. War with either Syria (which I thought was about as likely as war with Iran), or perhaps war with Russia. Because if the Russians repaired one overseas naval base, that would be one too many.
The joke mostly failed, because almost no one else had ever heard of the largely-derelict Soviet Naval Supply Station at Tartus. One civil war later, and here we are. Funny how things turn out.
We're going to repeat WW I aren't we? The alliance system is replicated almost completely with clients not being restrained in a reasonable amount of time. Along with pretty much everybody actually wanting to go to war with each other.
The only reason to present a list of demands like, especially this publicly, that is to say "see? see? We tried to reason with them, now look at what they're making us do!" when the list gets rejected.
Yeah, this is the modern equivalent of the old Roman practice of sending envoys abroad to purposefully insult everything they possibly can about their assigned foreign power to try and get the foreign leader to imprison or kill them giving the Romans a valid causus belli.
From the founding of the Republic till the fall of Constantinople, the Roman state claimed to have never engaged in a war of aggression.
Speaking of Casus Belli, given what happened last time we gave an arab state tacit approval to invade a neighbor, were I Saudi Arabia I would be careful regarding any US assurances.
I mean, they met the president in person, if they trust anything the US says at this point....
We're going to repeat WW I aren't we? The alliance system is replicated almost completely with clients not being restrained in a reasonable amount of time. Along with pretty much everybody actually wanting to go to war with each other.
Of course not, there's nukes now
It would go very differently
Triptycho: A card-and-dice tabletop indie RPG currently in development and playtesting
Posts
1) The Arab League is not involved in this matter. Its mostly Saudi Arabia and somewhat United Arab Emirates that are behind this whole crisis. The others either got on the bandwagon or have been strong armed into it. Here's a full list, note several tiny islands and 3 states without functioning central governments on the list:
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Bahrain
Egypt
Maldives
Yemen
Mauritania
Comoros
Senegal
Libya (Tobruk)
Somaliland
The main players, including Qatar itself, are part of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), but I don't believe the organization has taken action against Qatar.
2) The current flare seemingly came out of nowhere (from a supposedly hacked news report or something) but the tension has been around for some time. There was a similar spat in 2014 over pretty well the same issues. There have been differences between Qatar and Saudi for some time.
3) The "blockade" is a bit of misnomer. Saudi controls the only land border with Qatar, and they shut that, as well as not allowing flights. Sea routes remain open... though most of the ports that Qatar relies on are not actually in the country. They have one big port that is still under construction. Iran and Oman and probably others have been flying in fresh food. Because of previous border troubles, I suspect Qatar stockpiled food. To to be clear, its not like the Saudi navy or airforce is preventing 3rd parties from going to Qatar.
Commentary:
Yeah these demands are pretty fucked, I thought they'd be softened compared to the twitter demands I saw a couple weeks ago, but no. Missing is what happens if Qatar fails to comply. This kind of shit can definitely lead to war, though its a bit hard to imagine how that would work out, given the massive US airbase in Qatar. The Saudis are happy starving out Yemen, so maybe they'll try the same thing? That Tillerson seemingly backed this list is... pretty shocking, I'm not sure what to make of that.
edit: so 10 days, that means July 3rd. Christ such a short time limit too.
e:2 (Tillerson's not backed the demands, my mistake)
AFAIK he only pushed that KSA should provide a list of "reasonable" demands. AFAIK He has yet to issue a statement on the now official list.
No sane person would consider this list of demands reasonable....but then this is the Trump government.
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
Yes this is right, I misread a statement that Tillerson issued a couple days ago. Tillerson has not backed these recent demands. Sorry.
And not just because they are. Centcom being there might be good for Qatar, but they are still there because the Qatari government lets them be there. It's an arrangement of mutual benefit. The US owes it's support to the country it's using to base thousands of troops.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-great-muslim-civil-war--and-us/2017/06/22/80a32be6-56c1-11e7-a204-ad706461fa4f_story.html?utm_term=.dd3d977239a5
Their nightmare scenario was the status quo before the Syrian civil war started.
They failed the math and science cores to get a meteorology degree and be on the local news station.
~ Buckaroo Banzai
Fucking stupid, stupid people
"moderate and western allied," as opposed to those uniformly radical Shia
Hahaha
Moderate and western allied
Those Moderate Saudis
Those lovely western allied fucking Salafist/Wahaabist militias cruising around the Sunni triangle backed by those Moderate Saudis and Erdogan, our bezzie mate
What a fucking moron
Doesn't even live on the same planet
How close are Turkey and Iran. I feel the Saudis are risking an axis of Tehran, Ankara, and Moscow of Qatar. Seems very stupid.
(Granted, with Turkey it barely does as is.)
Emperor Franz Joseph really wants an excuse to attack Serbia.
Because punditry is 100% accountability free.
So "feel free to devour Qatar" then?
1 Suppress all publications which "incite hatred and contempt of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy" and are "directed against its territorial integrity".
2 Dissolve the Serbian nationalist organisation Narodna Odbrana ("The People's Defense") and all other such societies in Serbia.
3 Eliminate without delay from schoolbooks and public documents all "propaganda against Austria-Hungary".
4 Remove from the Serbian military and civil administration all officers and functionaries whose names the Austro-Hungarian Government will provide.
5 Accept in Serbia "representatives of the Austro-Hungarian Government" for the "suppression of subversive movements".
6 Bring to trial all accessories to the Archduke's assassination and allow "Austro-Hungarian delegates" (law enforcement officers) to take part in the investigations.
7 Arrest Major Vojislav Tankosić and civil servant Milan Ciganović who were named as participants in the assassination plot.
8 Cease the cooperation of the Serbian authorities in the "traffic in arms and explosives across the frontier"; dismiss and punish the officials of Šabac and Loznica frontier service, "guilty of having assisted the perpetrators of the Sarajevo crime".
9 Provide "explanations" to the Austro-Hungarian Government regarding "Serbian officials" who have expressed themselves in interviews "in terms of hostility to the Austro-Hungarian Government".
10 Notify the Austro-Hungarian Government "without delay" of the execution of the measures comprised in the ultimatum.
Yeah I thought these demands looked really similar.
It's almost play-for-play the thing that led to WW1.
It does because realism is mainly concerned with power and power is zero sum. (You could also consider an instantaneous vs intertemporal zero sum if you wanted a more expansive definition of power; which is true in most economics constructions as an example)
Alliances work under this framework because two entities can take power from a third.
@hippofant
"Also we're temporarily forgetting that we have one of our primary military bases in the region, which our voting base doesn't know about, so it's cool."
"We have no opinion on your Arab-Arab conflicts, such as your dispute with Kuwait. Secretary Baker has directed me to emphasize the instruction, first given to Iraq in the 1960s, that the Kuwait issue is not associated with America."
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
And surely KSA et al know that ... so what do they really want? A war, or something else? How do we get them down from the ledge?
Buy OPEC oil and bomb the hell out of Iran.
Yeah, this is the modern equivalent of the old Roman practice of sending envoys abroad to purposefully insult everything they possibly can about their assigned foreign power to try and get the foreign leader to imprison or kill them giving the Romans a valid causus belli.
From the founding of the Republic till the fall of Constantinople, the Roman state claimed to have never engaged in a war of aggression.
~ Buckaroo Banzai
I'm sure we sold them some bombers. And we probably sold Qatar some anti-aircraft shit.
So what are the odds the Trump admin lets them take Qatar with Saudi assurances they steer clear of US military assets in the country? Bonus points if you can tell me if this is a planned move against Iran or just random stumbling.
Speaking of Casus Belli, given what happened last time we gave an arab state tacit approval to invade a neighbor, were I Saudi Arabia I would be careful regarding any US assurances.
What seems like a long time ago, I used to tell the joke (here too, I think) that if the Russian Navy ever restored the Soviet Naval Supply Station at Tartus, somehow, it'd mean war. War with either Syria (which I thought was about as likely as war with Iran), or perhaps war with Russia. Because if the Russians repaired one overseas naval base, that would be one too many.
The joke mostly failed, because almost no one else had ever heard of the largely-derelict Soviet Naval Supply Station at Tartus. One civil war later, and here we are. Funny how things turn out.
I mean, they met the president in person, if they trust anything the US says at this point....
It would go very differently
Saudi Arabia has armed forces of like, nearly half a million. Plus reserves. Holy shit really? That's big. Okay
And they are well funded but yeah I'm aware their reputation for being pretty fucking useless is well known
But sharing a land border... like that's militarily speaking not really a competition. So a Saudi military expedition seems potentially doable.