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Off Year US Elections: Nov 7 pretty, pretty good for Dems
archivistkitsune
Registered User regular
Registered User regular
I'm gonna ahead and get this thread ready to go for Tuesday.
As some of you know there are going to be some general elections for this Tuesday, Nov 7. I know for a fact that both New Jersey and Virginia are electing governors. Virginia is also electing all members of it's House of Delegates. IIRC Virginia is not the only state electing a legislator this Tuesday. There are also probably plenty of local elections and referendums happening as well. A ton of stuff happens a the local level and even a political junkie like me can't keep track of it all. If you can't say definitively whether or not you have something on the ballot, I encourage you to go check you state's and localities election office webpage. I also encourage everyone who has something to vote on, that is eligible to vote to go out an vote. I mean people have fought hard for the right and there are still people fighting for the right to vote, sadly it's still happening in the US. So show some respect, put some thought into and exercise your right. Besides this is a change to have some agency in your government because local and state elections do have some immeadiate impacts on your daily life.
The rules:
1. Standard don't be a goose
2. Standard stay on topic
3. This isn't intended for political organization. So be careful how you treat here, mods are fine with opinions on about candidates and referendums. They're fine with people mention how to vote. They are fine with information being provided. They are fine with encouraging people to vote. They are not fine with people using this as part of their campaign's platform to organize a get out the vote effort to help their candidate win.
4. Standard source rules.
5. This is no the lol republican thread, even if some of GOP candidates are absolutely clown shoes (I'm looking at you Bob Marshall). Keep this to people that are actually running.
6. Not the Trump thread, we have enough of those and I know he has stuck his nose in the Virginia governor races.
7. I'll leave it to mods on when people are allowed to talk about potential national implications of some of these races; especially, once the results are in. Right now, we are not going to talk about that during the 7th and probably 8th because there is going to be plenty to talk about. I'm aware the implications can be big and that we have some national matters that are likely having some influence here.
8. We are not talking about the Alabama special Senate election. That is a month out and that could easily drown out stuff that is happening now. I don't know if the mods will be willing to open thread to discussion at a later time when it would be appropriate or if it's going to warrant its own thread.
9. You can talk about you experience at the polls or about what you've seen in how people have campaigned. Yes, you can also mention if you voted early.
As some of you know there are going to be some general elections for this Tuesday, Nov 7. I know for a fact that both New Jersey and Virginia are electing governors. Virginia is also electing all members of it's House of Delegates. IIRC Virginia is not the only state electing a legislator this Tuesday. There are also probably plenty of local elections and referendums happening as well. A ton of stuff happens a the local level and even a political junkie like me can't keep track of it all. If you can't say definitively whether or not you have something on the ballot, I encourage you to go check you state's and localities election office webpage. I also encourage everyone who has something to vote on, that is eligible to vote to go out an vote. I mean people have fought hard for the right and there are still people fighting for the right to vote, sadly it's still happening in the US. So show some respect, put some thought into and exercise your right. Besides this is a change to have some agency in your government because local and state elections do have some immeadiate impacts on your daily life.
The rules:
1. Standard don't be a goose
2. Standard stay on topic
3. This isn't intended for political organization. So be careful how you treat here, mods are fine with opinions on about candidates and referendums. They're fine with people mention how to vote. They are fine with information being provided. They are fine with encouraging people to vote. They are not fine with people using this as part of their campaign's platform to organize a get out the vote effort to help their candidate win.
4. Standard source rules.
5. This is no the lol republican thread, even if some of GOP candidates are absolutely clown shoes (I'm looking at you Bob Marshall). Keep this to people that are actually running.
6. Not the Trump thread, we have enough of those and I know he has stuck his nose in the Virginia governor races.
7. I'll leave it to mods on when people are allowed to talk about potential national implications of some of these races; especially, once the results are in. Right now, we are not going to talk about that during the 7th and probably 8th because there is going to be plenty to talk about. I'm aware the implications can be big and that we have some national matters that are likely having some influence here.
8. We are not talking about the Alabama special Senate election. That is a month out and that could easily drown out stuff that is happening now. I don't know if the mods will be willing to open thread to discussion at a later time when it would be appropriate or if it's going to warrant its own thread.
9. You can talk about you experience at the polls or about what you've seen in how people have campaigned. Yes, you can also mention if you voted early.
So It Goes on
0
This discussion has been closed.
Posts
Dems taking either chamber of the leg in Virginia is out of reach on Tuesday, but they could add two trifectas (to what is currently, what, 4 i think? Connecticut, Rhode Island, California, and Hawaii?)
Texas has a strange constitution.
I largely agree with Murphy's stated agenda for his first term and would just like to say that the editorial board of the Star Ledger can eat my dick. Murphy too cozy with state workers? We just spent eight years watching our wages drop like a stone, benefits slashed and sometimes pressed to work in unsafe conditions because the current governor used us as his personal pinata/piggy bank hybrid. Eight years have gone by and your average teachers take home pay has failed to keep up with inflation and then some. Retirees haven't gotten a single cost of living adjustment, for some of them COLA is significantly larger then their actual pension.
I have no idea if any seats are really at stake aside from the governor's where Murphy is supposed to walk away with it. @Hakkekage may have some insight there.
Come Overwatch with meeeee
Well, everyone else have fun, I guess I'll just sit back and watch for how Democrats are gonna screw up Virginia.
The Senate is basically split down the middle, and there are an unprecedented number of delegate contests. It will be difficult, but it is doable.
I live in a neighboring district to this one, which means that I don't get to vote on it but I do get to see all the attack ads that have been bought due to the national GOP looking, Eye of Sauron-like, down on that election.
There's some vile, vile shit being said about Mhanka Dhingra on these ads. It's almost apocalyptic, the tone of them. Completely ridiculous stuff. It's also become the most expensive legislative race in WA history.
Our Senate is up for election, so that is going to remind in Republican control for the foreseeable future. I suppose someone on the GOP side could get arrested later on or win a US House of Reps seat in 2018.
I wouldn't write of the House of Delegates just yet. Keep in mind a number of those districts that the GOP holds went for Clinton last year, went Warner in 2014, went for McAuliffe in 2013 and went Obama in 2012. The only reason the GOP has some of those seats has nothing to do with turnout or gerrymandering. It's been a case of the state party doing a shit job at finding a body to run against them. Democrats are contesting a record number of seats this year, so I expect the GOP is going to lose a number of seats in the House of Delegates because they have people there, solely because they've never had to compete to keep the seat and aren't exactly well liked by the voters.
I myself voted absentee. On that note, numbers of absentee voting are looking promising for the Virginia democrats. I'll laugh if the upticks in early voting in red areas, aren't a increases in Republicans voting early but democrats voting early. Numbers are way up from 2013, which had 128,497. The number this year is at 210,477. If I'm doing the math right, that's a 61.05% increase from 4 years ago. I think that's a big enough difference that we can't attribute it all to population increasing. There is also the question of how much of that is democratic and how many of those democratic votes are because people are more motivated to vote for the party? Same questions for the GOP side. Also the one question that can't be answered, is how many that voted absentee last year, opt to not vote this year? I'm not a fan of conventional wisdom, but if that holds (Democrats are actually motivated to vote, more votes are good for them and Republican voters are demoralized), this could be a fantastic sign for democrats.
I prefer Cary Moon but we'll probably be okay either way.
the "no true scotch man" fallacy.
Treasurer is interesting because it is down to a Democrat and a Republican. For those that don't know, we use a weird jungle primary system here. The weird part is that the general election is used as the primary. The run-off is where it gets down to potentially 2 candidates from the same party. This time it didn't and it might be significant. There is nothing else going on in the state except for the New Orleans mayoral contest which will bring out a ton more Democratic voters than normal. So here's to hoping something good will come from Kennedy winning a Senate seat.
New Orleans mayoral contest is also kind of fun but for different reasons. The election will result in the first black woman mayor of New Orleans because the primary is between two black women. I am hoping the one who seems to be working with our absolute piece of shit of a DA doesn't win personally. The DA who is so terrible that Trump is rumored to be picking him for a spot as a federal prosecutor. Anyone who can work with him makes my skin crawl.
All land in Massachusetts is in a town and our counties are very minimal. Its midterm of the mayoral term so its basically just school board in my town and city council at large seats (the rest are mostly uncontested) so its somewhat farcical. Its also very different than what I see elsewhere in the country. The policy differences at the town level are minimal here in my town (which for MA is relatively almost moderate)... Republican candidates are proposing school funding increases, preparing for climate change, decrying gas pipelines because of environmental dangers, etc. Its hard for even someone as partisan as me to really get angry about their platforms, to the extent that they have them.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
That said, in philly we don't have very much exciting besides a ballot question that is made to amend the state constitution to effectively eliminate property tax. This would be obviously bad, but it's going to pass anyway because it's worded terribly and they always do.
Also have the DA race and some judges, but local stuff is decided in March.
I'll just be glad I'll stop getting awful Jinyong Englund "That's england with a u!" ads. Her not branded ones about her opponent being a super liberal are fucking infuriating.
I also hope king country retains our sheriff. If only because the smear campaign against him has been ridiculous.
pleasepaypreacher.net
Yeah question 1 is kinda my major reason for heading in to voting tomorrow.
I don't know all the councillors but im trying to read up on the races today.
Personally I just feel like I just can't trust developers anymore what with all the news of developers coming into towns across america, building huge boondoggles and then sticking it to the taxpayer; though admittedly this is just a rather minor zoning change and not like a huge subsidy or something. (for example, the President of the United States.)
(EDIT: can't trust developers)
As for city council, for my district there are two people running, neither of whom are incumbents (the prior incumbent being one of the eight running for mayor) and both of whom sound pretty much identical. For city council at large, there are three people running - two people who sound pretty good, for different reasons, and one completely batshit crazy imbecile. I have been encouraging people to vote specifically so they can give votes to either of the not-imbecile candidates. I'm fine with either one winning, because both of them seemed fine and both support causes that I do, but I'm afraid the crazy one will win.
So uh. yeah. Will probably sit this election out.
.... aren't schools mostly funded through property taxes?
Edit. according to whosontheballot.org there are a lot of elections in NYC. Mayor, City Council, Justice of the Civil Court, Supreme Court, Burough President, City Comptroller and City Advocate. There are also 2 proposed NY State constitutional amendments as well as a proposed constitutional convention
Edit2: The NYC Campaign Finance Board has a top 3 priorities for most candidates at least https://www.nyccfb.info/voterguide
Edit3: The guide for the amendments with statements for and against is also on the NYC Campaign Finance Board website
Ugh, I know. During my last town election, the only public information I could find was all the yard signs about the election. Even people I asked said they didn't know much about the person, they just felt that (a) we need someone new or (b) the current group was doing just fine. No discussion as to WHY we needed someone new, or WHY the current group was doing fine. I guess it just depended if you were pissed off about your taxes or not.
I just started googling, but so far I've only found info about the races and not the candidates. Ie. "NY has only had 3 mayors in the last 28 years", "The constitutional convention was last on the ballot 20 years ago when it lost by 20 pts" etc.
In Philadelphia, our most high profile race is for district attorney. There, we have Democrat Larry Krasner, a former public defender who has done pro bono work for BLM and Occupy protesters, and who successfully campaigned as the "anti-establishment" candidate in the primary while promising to curb police abuse, against Republican Beth Grossman, a prosecutor who supports civil asset forfeiture and has the endorsement of the city's largest police union.
Gonna be hitting the button for Krasner as hard as I can tomorrow.
edit: Also yes I'll be voting against that dumb ballot question that would get rid of property taxes. Although I think local property taxes are a terrible way to fund schools, this measure doesn't do anything to fix the current system and is pretty much just a giveaway.
We are not discussing the Jones /Moore race in this thread. Only elections with votes happening Nov 7.
He is an absolute fucker and I want him and his "court" gone.
Oh, he also says shit like this:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rex-parris-asian-gays-reduce-crime_us_592f367de4b09ec37c3173c3
From nj.com:
Also a Quinnipiac poll released today has Murphy leading 53-41 percent (Link: https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2496).
The RCP average also has Murphy ahead by more than 14 points: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_guadagno_vs_murphy-6187.html.
It is...unlikely Guadagno will become the next governor.
@DisruptedCapitalist
My partner is a city planner. The anecdotes she comes home with...
No, you absolutely can't trust developers.
That said, 24 units doesn't sound like a big impact on schools, adding them to a mixed-use zone near retail sounds like good city planning, and I'm always in favor of building more housing, so it sounds like this might be okay? I mean, I dunno the specifics of your situation...
the "no true scotch man" fallacy.
There has been a *lot* of drama on this, and while there were some possible shenanigans with the bidding process (including claims of rejiggering the requirements for the new airport to try (and fail) to get a local contractor the bid) biggest debate have been between the vacationers and recreational fliers who find the airport amazing, and insist on renovations, and the buisness travelers and airlines who say keeping it would be the worst possible thing.
New airport would be paid with using the revenue the city would get from it once built, and though I'm sure there is a fine print, mayor has been pretty big in harping how we'll get a new airport without new taxes should this go through. (btw, KCMO mayor Sly James, on the scale of mayors whoring themselves out for the second Amazon HQ, is the "buy 1000 items on Amazon and do reviews with not-so-sly (pun intended) mentions of how great a place your city is" mayor, though he was on the side of a new airport well before Amazon make their declaration and put "quality international airport" on the list of musts)
I'll probably be voting yes. Partly because I agree we need a new one, and partly because an airport that's amazing for "leaving" the city it serves in is a dead giveaway there is something wrong with that.
Whoops, it seems like I misread the town warrant. It's 120 new units, 24 of which are affordable housing since Massachusetts law requires at least 10% of all units in a town to be 40B affordable. Does that change your assessment?
Which town?
Are they detached single family houses, or are they condos/apartments above the retail shops?
The latter would (probably) be better. Most US cities have too many single-family houses and not enough mixed-use retail+residential zones.
Either way yeah at 120 new units the impact on schools needs to be assessed. It wouldn't be negligible at that level. The developers & city would normally get together and do impact assessments, not just on schools but on environment, traffic, emergency access, water availability, etc. The specific assessments will differ from city to city so don't take that list as gospel. Sometimes the city does the assessments and the developer pays for it in permitting fees, or sometimes the developer hires a consultant to do the assessments and the city just inspects them.
What can happen especially in smaller towns or unincorporated areas is sometimes they'll find a loophole to skip one or more standard assessments. They'll skip, say, stormwater drainage, build the development, and then next winter rolls around and there's flooding at a nearby intersection because they paved over a meadow. Whoops.
This isn't a reason not to go forward with the development, but it does mean that concerned citizens can have a role in making sure everybody does their due diligence.
the "no true scotch man" fallacy.
Still going to write-in Josue Perez for city council. I really dislike Ydanis Rodrigues (who is definitely going to win) since he supports homophobes and IDC members.
Also writing in Marc Fliedner for DA. The guy who is going to win is a corrupt ass who declined to prosecute Weinstein and the Trumps because they gave him money.
The one thing I'm voting for that I hope is not a lost-cause is no on the constitution convention. I'd like to vote yes, since there are a lot of reforms that could happen that could be good. But those things won't happen. So much money and up-state politics will be involved that any constitution convention will be a pit to throw money in that will only make people like the Kochs happy.
Yea, basically this. A convention might have good things happen but I do not trust that it wouldn't just be a cash grab of fucking pensions, looting the Adirondack park and other horrors because most people will not be paying attention.