All people have their partisanship less ingrained when they're young so a particularly abhorrent candidate like Moore is less likely to get their votes. I was speaking more generally.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
Older people were more dependent on the church as their main source of social interaction and social support. I read a crazy statistic a while back that something like 1/3 the population meets their significant other via church. I think that the biggest difference for young people is that young people have access to online social media. That doesn't make them better at critical thinking by any means, but it does mean they're far less dependent on the Church compared to their parents.
However, one surprising thing about the chart Elki just posted is that there's practically no difference between the 18-29 and 30-44. I would have expected that 18-29 would have been much more firmly in the Jones camp.
Even in Alabama there are probably a lot of white voters who picked the D team because of racial inequality. Sure, less than in other states, but focusing a campaign on fixing the structural and still overt bigotry and civil rights issues in this country, will still get you plenty of votes from white folks.
No you won't. The idea of government help for black people is deeply unpopular. It will not be done favors by decoupling it from a political program and leaving it naked and alone, pushing the idea of Jones as a black candidate that has room in his coalition for only selfless whites enlightened enough to jump on to help black people. The idea of candidate likes Jones being just for black people and their white allies is pretty familiar in the south, and it's not told to help their cause. That it gained this second life as something people say in support of these candidates is politically shortsighted.
Well I guess I should have specified that by "plenty of votes," I really meant "more than zero" because I was responding to the idea that white people would COMPLETELY abandon someone who campaigns on a racial/civil justice platform.
I kinda had the sense that a lot of young folks are turning to Dems (away from the GOP at least) because of "fuck racists and bigots." I didn't realize how fraught this assumption is, but that's why I post here I guess.
If you control for race, young white people are not turning on the GOP nearly as much as the common narrative suggests. Young people in general are turning on the GOP because young people are a lot less white than previous generations.
It's both shifts in ethnic make up and generational differences, and in Alabama generational differences might be greater than results of a demographic shift.
There is no evidence that Alabama's under 44s are an especially diverse group compared to the rest of the state's population, but it is clear that they're more likely to turn against the GOP than older voters. This is not necessarily because of their anti-racist views. The GOP might have just earned an image of a party that doesn't care about them.
Honestly, that graph reads to me that every bloc of Alabama voters had a substantial shift away from the GOP in this election. 65+ going 40% Dem, in a state like Alabama, is pretty astounding.
Younger voters are less likely to be Republican in general, but it wouldn't surprise me if every age group shifted at LEAST 20% from where they were in previous elections.
I just saw a CNN report of Jones saying he won because he's "center of the road," and I don't think he understands that a lot of the vote was motivated for other reasons. If this is his - and the Democrats' - takeaway, 2018 campaigning might be weak as shit.
Could we at least wait until the Democratic Senator from Alabama is seated before we start purity testing him?
I feel like "purity test" has become some empty political buzzword / rhetoric.
At any rate there's something to be said about wanting to keep conservative states conservative vs trying to convince them that progressive ideals aren't bad. But hey what do I know, I'm just a guy with some ideas on bettering life for everyone instead of just playing to local status quo.
Apparently you know nothing Jon Snow.
Show me where Jones is "conservative".
And looks like a whole lot of bad faith and projection in the latter half of your post here...
Even in Alabama there are probably a lot of white voters who picked the D team because of racial inequality. Sure, less than in other states, but focusing a campaign on fixing the structural and still overt bigotry and civil rights issues in this country, will still get you plenty of votes from white folks.
No you won't. The idea of government help for black people is deeply unpopular. It will not be done favors by decoupling it from a political program and leaving it naked and alone, pushing the idea of Jones as a black candidate that has room in his coalition for only selfless whites enlightened enough to jump on to help black people. The idea of candidate likes Jones being just for black people and their white allies is pretty familiar in the south, and it's not told to help their cause. That it gained this second life as something people say in support of these candidates is politically shortsighted.
Well I guess I should have specified that by "plenty of votes," I really meant "more than zero" because I was responding to the idea that white people would COMPLETELY abandon someone who campaigns on a racial/civil justice platform.
I kinda had the sense that a lot of young folks are turning to Dems (away from the GOP at least) because of "fuck racists and bigots." I didn't realize how fraught this assumption is, but that's why I post here I guess.
If you control for race, young white people are not turning on the GOP nearly as much as the common narrative suggests. Young people in general are turning on the GOP because young people are a lot less white than previous generations.
It's both shifts in ethnic make up and generational differences, and in Alabama generational differences might be greater than results of a demographic shift.
There is no evidence that Alabama's under 44s are an especially diverse group compared to the rest of the state's population, but it is clear that they're more likely to turn against the GOP than older voters. This is not necessarily because of their anti-racist views. The GOP might have just earned an image of a party that doesn't care about them.
I wonder what the overlap is for those age groups and parenthood is. Or interaction with parents/actual middle schoolers. Because when TV portrays sophmores with 28 year olds, I can see that blunting the child molester accusations. But if you actually know 14 year olds...
All people have their partisanship less ingrained when they're young so a particularly abhorrent candidate like Moore is less likely to get their votes. I was speaking more generally.
Here it is more generally.
Generational differences in party affiliation are clear, even if you account for race. There is a meaningful difference to be seen between Boomers’ R+20, and the millennials. It's a 20 point difference, or 15 if you want to compare it to X; there are unambiguous differences in party affiliation.
So when Jones finds room to do well among younger demographics, it has a basis in demographic and generational differences that don’t all have to do with weak partisans who will revert as soon as no child molester is in the running.
+1
augustwhere you come from is goneRegistered Userregular
Moore is asking his followers to donate money to investigate election fraud:
the audacity of rigging this against black voters to then turn around and say there was voter fraud and that must somehow explain like 10,000 votes in favour of the democrat
Is Moore asking for money to be donated, or money to be donated specifically to a recount account? If it's the latter, it can only legally be used for a recount campaign. If he's vaguely talking about recounts but asking for campaign contributions then that's money with few strings attached and could be used to pay what's owed to campaign vendors, staff, etc. I can't find a link to where he's asking for the donations to be sent; is he directly sending people to his pre-existing campaign donations page?
the audacity of rigging this against black voters to then turn around and say there was voter fraud and that must somehow explain like 10,000 votes in favour of the democrat
a 1.5% voter fraud would be insane
Not as insane as 2.1% voter fraud across the entire US, which is about 3 million votes, which is what Trump still claims happens and he won.
the audacity of rigging this against black voters to then turn around and say there was voter fraud and that must somehow explain like 10,000 votes in favour of the democrat
a 1.5% voter fraud would be insane
Not as insane as 2.1% voter fraud across the entire US, which is about 3 million votes, which is what Trump still claims happens and he won.
This is just small potatoes insanity grifting.
(Compare to all the ways Trump has managed to turn his administration into a money-laundering/siphoning operation. Millions in just the first year...)
Older people were more dependent on the church as their main source of social interaction and social support. I read a crazy statistic a while back that something like 1/3 the population meets their significant other via church. I think that the biggest difference for young people is that young people have access to online social media. That doesn't make them better at critical thinking by any means, but it does mean they're far less dependent on the Church compared to their parents.
However, one surprising thing about the chart Elki just posted is that there's practically no difference between the 18-29 and 30-44. I would have expected that 18-29 would have been much more firmly in the Jones camp.
Late Gen X is much closer to Millennials in its habits. Its early Gen X that's more transitional between the Boomers and the Millennials politically.
Doug Jones repeating the White House talking point that Trumps sexual assaults were brought up before the election and people voted for him so he shouldn’t resign because of them to Jake Tapper.
And that you can’t expect him to always vote with the Democrats.
The sexual assault thing is disappointing. The not always voting with Dems is obnoxious but not surprising. Alabama is still Alabama.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
Where I am on that right now is that those allegations were made before the election. And so people had an opportunity to judge before that election. I think we need to move on and not get distracted by those issues.... Let’s get on with the real issues that are facing people of this country right now, and I don’t think the President ought to resign at this point. We’ll see how things go but certainly those allegations are not new and he was elected with those allegations at front centre.
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However, one surprising thing about the chart Elki just posted is that there's practically no difference between the 18-29 and 30-44. I would have expected that 18-29 would have been much more firmly in the Jones camp.
Honestly, that graph reads to me that every bloc of Alabama voters had a substantial shift away from the GOP in this election. 65+ going 40% Dem, in a state like Alabama, is pretty astounding.
Younger voters are less likely to be Republican in general, but it wouldn't surprise me if every age group shifted at LEAST 20% from where they were in previous elections.
Apparently you know nothing Jon Snow.
Show me where Jones is "conservative".
And looks like a whole lot of bad faith and projection in the latter half of your post here...
I wonder what the overlap is for those age groups and parenthood is. Or interaction with parents/actual middle schoolers. Because when TV portrays sophmores with 28 year olds, I can see that blunting the child molester accusations. But if you actually know 14 year olds...
Election fuckery was fairly high this time. I'm betting Jones +5 without it..
Here it is more generally.
Generational differences in party affiliation are clear, even if you account for race. There is a meaningful difference to be seen between Boomers’ R+20, and the millennials. It's a 20 point difference, or 15 if you want to compare it to X; there are unambiguous differences in party affiliation.
So when Jones finds room to do well among younger demographics, it has a basis in demographic and generational differences that don’t all have to do with weak partisans who will revert as soon as no child molester is in the running.
It’s like: who do you think he learned this shit from bud.
a 1.5% voter fraud would be insane
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No, and there won't be. Senators and Representatives cannot be recalled.
I am happy to eat these words.
He is just scamming people out of their money.
You're right, I didn't know you couldn't contest congressional elections in Alabama.
You can't contest them, but you sure can tilt at the windmills of "voter fraud" and bilk your supporters for cash to pay your bills.
At least, if you're Roy Moore.
Not as insane as 2.1% voter fraud across the entire US, which is about 3 million votes, which is what Trump still claims happens and he won.
This is just small potatoes insanity.
I particularly 'love' the bit with cops checking papers at the door, specifically to see if they can arrest people before they vote.
(Compare to all the ways Trump has managed to turn his administration into a money-laundering/siphoning operation. Millions in just the first year...)
The grift is eternal.
Late Gen X is much closer to Millennials in its habits. Its early Gen X that's more transitional between the Boomers and the Millennials politically.
"AL has X% PoC population, but more than X% PoC voted in the election! Fraud!"
You mean like "30% of people in Alabama are PoC, but 40% of PoC voted FOURTY IS MORE THAN THIRTY!!!!111"
And that you can’t expect him to always vote with the Democrats.
So. Off to a great start.
(I'm one of them, but I'm better than that.)
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