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AP Calls Alabama Senate Race for Doug Jones, Democrat

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    All people have their partisanship less ingrained when they're young so a particularly abhorrent candidate like Moore is less likely to get their votes. I was speaking more generally.

    The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
  • SchrodingerSchrodinger Registered User regular
    Older people were more dependent on the church as their main source of social interaction and social support. I read a crazy statistic a while back that something like 1/3 the population meets their significant other via church. I think that the biggest difference for young people is that young people have access to online social media. That doesn't make them better at critical thinking by any means, but it does mean they're far less dependent on the Church compared to their parents.

    However, one surprising thing about the chart Elki just posted is that there's practically no difference between the 18-29 and 30-44. I would have expected that 18-29 would have been much more firmly in the Jones camp.

  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    edited December 2017
    Elki wrote: »
    Elki wrote: »
    Even in Alabama there are probably a lot of white voters who picked the D team because of racial inequality. Sure, less than in other states, but focusing a campaign on fixing the structural and still overt bigotry and civil rights issues in this country, will still get you plenty of votes from white folks.

    No you won't. The idea of government help for black people is deeply unpopular. It will not be done favors by decoupling it from a political program and leaving it naked and alone, pushing the idea of Jones as a black candidate that has room in his coalition for only selfless whites enlightened enough to jump on to help black people. The idea of candidate likes Jones being just for black people and their white allies is pretty familiar in the south, and it's not told to help their cause. That it gained this second life as something people say in support of these candidates is politically shortsighted.

    Well I guess I should have specified that by "plenty of votes," I really meant "more than zero" because I was responding to the idea that white people would COMPLETELY abandon someone who campaigns on a racial/civil justice platform.

    I kinda had the sense that a lot of young folks are turning to Dems (away from the GOP at least) because of "fuck racists and bigots." I didn't realize how fraught this assumption is, but that's why I post here I guess.

    If you control for race, young white people are not turning on the GOP nearly as much as the common narrative suggests. Young people in general are turning on the GOP because young people are a lot less white than previous generations.

    It's both shifts in ethnic make up and generational differences, and in Alabama generational differences might be greater than results of a demographic shift.

    pCNe7HW.png

    There is no evidence that Alabama's under 44s are an especially diverse group compared to the rest of the state's population, but it is clear that they're more likely to turn against the GOP than older voters. This is not necessarily because of their anti-racist views. The GOP might have just earned an image of a party that doesn't care about them.

    Honestly, that graph reads to me that every bloc of Alabama voters had a substantial shift away from the GOP in this election. 65+ going 40% Dem, in a state like Alabama, is pretty astounding.

    Younger voters are less likely to be Republican in general, but it wouldn't surprise me if every age group shifted at LEAST 20% from where they were in previous elections.

    Javen on
  • JoshJosh jmcdonald DC(ish)Registered User regular
    Henroid wrote: »
    jmcdonald wrote: »
    Henroid wrote: »
    I just saw a CNN report of Jones saying he won because he's "center of the road," and I don't think he understands that a lot of the vote was motivated for other reasons. If this is his - and the Democrats' - takeaway, 2018 campaigning might be weak as shit.

    Could we at least wait until the Democratic Senator from Alabama is seated before we start purity testing him?
    I feel like "purity test" has become some empty political buzzword / rhetoric.

    At any rate there's something to be said about wanting to keep conservative states conservative vs trying to convince them that progressive ideals aren't bad. But hey what do I know, I'm just a guy with some ideas on bettering life for everyone instead of just playing to local status quo.

    Apparently you know nothing Jon Snow.

    Show me where Jones is "conservative".

    And looks like a whole lot of bad faith and projection in the latter half of your post here...

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Elki wrote: »
    Elki wrote: »
    Even in Alabama there are probably a lot of white voters who picked the D team because of racial inequality. Sure, less than in other states, but focusing a campaign on fixing the structural and still overt bigotry and civil rights issues in this country, will still get you plenty of votes from white folks.

    No you won't. The idea of government help for black people is deeply unpopular. It will not be done favors by decoupling it from a political program and leaving it naked and alone, pushing the idea of Jones as a black candidate that has room in his coalition for only selfless whites enlightened enough to jump on to help black people. The idea of candidate likes Jones being just for black people and their white allies is pretty familiar in the south, and it's not told to help their cause. That it gained this second life as something people say in support of these candidates is politically shortsighted.

    Well I guess I should have specified that by "plenty of votes," I really meant "more than zero" because I was responding to the idea that white people would COMPLETELY abandon someone who campaigns on a racial/civil justice platform.

    I kinda had the sense that a lot of young folks are turning to Dems (away from the GOP at least) because of "fuck racists and bigots." I didn't realize how fraught this assumption is, but that's why I post here I guess.

    If you control for race, young white people are not turning on the GOP nearly as much as the common narrative suggests. Young people in general are turning on the GOP because young people are a lot less white than previous generations.

    It's both shifts in ethnic make up and generational differences, and in Alabama generational differences might be greater than results of a demographic shift.

    pCNe7HW.png

    There is no evidence that Alabama's under 44s are an especially diverse group compared to the rest of the state's population, but it is clear that they're more likely to turn against the GOP than older voters. This is not necessarily because of their anti-racist views. The GOP might have just earned an image of a party that doesn't care about them.

    I wonder what the overlap is for those age groups and parenthood is. Or interaction with parents/actual middle schoolers. Because when TV portrays sophmores with 28 year olds, I can see that blunting the child molester accusations. But if you actually know 14 year olds...

  • ElkiElki get busy Moderator, ClubPA Mod Emeritus
    All people have their partisanship less ingrained when they're young so a particularly abhorrent candidate like Moore is less likely to get their votes. I was speaking more generally.

    Here it is more generally.


    2_9.png


    Generational differences in party affiliation are clear, even if you account for race. There is a meaningful difference to be seen between Boomers’ R+20, and the millennials. It's a 20 point difference, or 15 if you want to compare it to X; there are unambiguous differences in party affiliation.

    So when Jones finds room to do well among younger demographics, it has a basis in demographic and generational differences that don’t all have to do with weak partisans who will revert as soon as no child molester is in the running.

    smCQ5WE.jpg
  • augustaugust where you come from is gone Registered User regular
    Moore is asking his followers to donate money to investigate election fraud:

  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    Because of course he is. Let folks part with their money. Less to spend in 2018.

  • augustaugust where you come from is gone Registered User regular
    Pretty hilarious Trump is asking him to concede.

    It’s like: who do you think he learned this shit from bud.

  • ProhassProhass Registered User regular
    the audacity of rigging this against black voters to then turn around and say there was voter fraud and that must somehow explain like 10,000 votes in favour of the democrat

    a 1.5% voter fraud would be insane

  • GyralGyral Registered User regular
    So, this is the point where Moore is actively stealing money from his voters, right?

    25t9pjnmqicf.jpg
  • XantomasXantomas Registered User regular
    This is exactly how Trump would have behaved if he had lost his election. Now we know.

  • VoodooVVoodooV Registered User regular
    Didn't you know? Tyranny is when an election doesn't go your way.

  • TTODewbackTTODewback Puts the drawl in ya'll I think I'm in HellRegistered User regular
    Secretary of State made a comment reminding people you can submit the voter fraud stuff for free, you dont have to give anyone any damn money

    Bless your heart.
  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    Moore sending out a fundraising email isn't surprising. At this point, he just wants as much money out of this he can get his hands on.

  • TaramoorTaramoor Storyteller Registered User regular
    So are there any petitions to recall Jones yet?

  • AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    Taramoor wrote: »
    So are there any petitions to recall Jones yet?

    No, and there won't be. Senators and Representatives cannot be recalled.

    XBL: Nox Aeternum / PSN: NoxAeternum / NN:NoxAeternum / Steam: noxaeternum
  • November FifthNovember Fifth Registered User regular
    Turn out was low at my polling location, which bodes well for Jones.

    I would consider it a victory if he finishes within five points of Moore.

    Not sure if it's worth the money that's been sunk into this though. I've never seen ad buys like this in Alabama.

    I am happy to eat these words.

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  • ElkiElki get busy Moderator, ClubPA Mod Emeritus
    Is Moore asking for money to be donated, or money to be donated specifically to a recount account? If it's the latter, it can only legally be used for a recount campaign. If he's vaguely talking about recounts but asking for campaign contributions then that's money with few strings attached and could be used to pay what's owed to campaign vendors, staff, etc. I can't find a link to where he's asking for the donations to be sent; is he directly sending people to his pre-existing campaign donations page?

    smCQ5WE.jpg
  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Moore can’t actually get a recount though because the difference in votes was too great and he can’t pay for one because it was a federal election.

    He is just scamming people out of their money.

  • ElkiElki get busy Moderator, ClubPA Mod Emeritus
    Viskod wrote: »
    Moore can’t actually get a recount though because the difference in votes was too great and he can’t pay for one because it was a federal election.

    He is just scamming people out of their money.

    You're right, I didn't know you couldn't contest congressional elections in Alabama.

    smCQ5WE.jpg
  • minor incidentminor incident publicly subsidized! privately profitable!Registered User, Transition Team regular
    Elki wrote: »
    Viskod wrote: »
    Moore can’t actually get a recount though because the difference in votes was too great and he can’t pay for one because it was a federal election.

    He is just scamming people out of their money.

    You're right, I didn't know you couldn't contest congressional elections in Alabama.

    You can't contest them, but you sure can tilt at the windmills of "voter fraud" and bilk your supporters for cash to pay your bills.

    At least, if you're Roy Moore.

    Hell, New Jersey, it said on the letter. Delivered without comment. So be it!
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Prohass wrote: »
    the audacity of rigging this against black voters to then turn around and say there was voter fraud and that must somehow explain like 10,000 votes in favour of the democrat

    a 1.5% voter fraud would be insane

    Not as insane as 2.1% voter fraud across the entire US, which is about 3 million votes, which is what Trump still claims happens and he won.

    This is just small potatoes insanity.

  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User, Moderator mod
    Phoenix-D wrote: »

    I particularly 'love' the bit with cops checking papers at the door, specifically to see if they can arrest people before they vote.

  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Prohass wrote: »
    the audacity of rigging this against black voters to then turn around and say there was voter fraud and that must somehow explain like 10,000 votes in favour of the democrat

    a 1.5% voter fraud would be insane

    Not as insane as 2.1% voter fraud across the entire US, which is about 3 million votes, which is what Trump still claims happens and he won.

    This is just small potatoes insanity grifting.

    (Compare to all the ways Trump has managed to turn his administration into a money-laundering/siphoning operation. Millions in just the first year...)

  • GundiGundi Serious Bismuth Registered User regular
    TTODewback wrote: »
    Secretary of State made a comment reminding people you can submit the voter fraud stuff for free, you dont have to give anyone any damn money

    The grift is eternal.

  • Mr KhanMr Khan Not Everyone WAHHHRegistered User regular
    Older people were more dependent on the church as their main source of social interaction and social support. I read a crazy statistic a while back that something like 1/3 the population meets their significant other via church. I think that the biggest difference for young people is that young people have access to online social media. That doesn't make them better at critical thinking by any means, but it does mean they're far less dependent on the Church compared to their parents.

    However, one surprising thing about the chart Elki just posted is that there's practically no difference between the 18-29 and 30-44. I would have expected that 18-29 would have been much more firmly in the Jones camp.

    Late Gen X is much closer to Millennials in its habits. Its early Gen X that's more transitional between the Boomers and the Millennials politically.

  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator, Administrator admin
    Man, some of the mental gymnastics I'm seeing about the results in social media.

    "AL has X% PoC population, but more than X% PoC voted in the election! Fraud!"

  • V1mV1m Registered User regular
    Echo wrote: »
    Man, some of the mental gymnastics I'm seeing about the results in social media.

    "AL has X% PoC population, but more than X% PoC voted in the election! Fraud!"

    You mean like "30% of people in Alabama are PoC, but 40% of PoC voted FOURTY IS MORE THAN THIRTY!!!!111"

  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Doug Jones repeating the White House talking point that Trumps sexual assaults were brought up before the election and people voted for him so he shouldn’t resign because of them to Jake Tapper.

    And that you can’t expect him to always vote with the Democrats.

    So. Off to a great start.

  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    People are terrible... at math.
    (I'm one of them, but I'm better than that.)

  • CoinageCoinage Heaviside LayerRegistered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    And that you can’t expect him to always vote with the Democrats.
    I mean, do you want him to get reelected or not

    Happiness is within reach!
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    The sexual assault thing is disappointing. The not always voting with Dems is obnoxious but not surprising. Alabama is still Alabama.

    The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. normal (not weird)Registered User regular
    This shouldn't be an electoral issue. If you assault women you shouldn't be in office and every politician should be recognizing that.

    wq09t4opzrlc.jpg
  • Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    What is the actual quote?

    You're muckin' with a G!

    Do not engage the Watermelons.
  • SchrodingerSchrodinger Registered User regular
    Demanding Trump's resignation seems entirely pointless because it's never going to happen.

  • ElkiElki get busy Moderator, ClubPA Mod Emeritus
    What is the actual quote?
    Where I am on that right now is that those allegations were made before the election. And so people had an opportunity to judge before that election. I think we need to move on and not get distracted by those issues.... Let’s get on with the real issues that are facing people of this country right now, and I don’t think the President ought to resign at this point. We’ll see how things go but certainly those allegations are not new and he was elected with those allegations at front centre.

    smCQ5WE.jpg
  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. normal (not weird)Registered User regular
    That's almost exactly the white house line

    wq09t4opzrlc.jpg
This discussion has been closed.