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The revival of [The Economy] (thread) and the potential for its coming collapse
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that's not true I don't think but the rest is spot on
Workforce participation has leveled off after a significant drop from 90s peak but I think most people chalk this up to baby boomers retiring.
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
Fixed, thanks for spotting my error.
Workforce participation is down because retirement is up and population growth is lower. I meant unemployment earlier, which is at like 4.1%. We're at a point where in any normal supply/demand view of employment, wages would be skyrocketing. But it's not happening because the supply side in this situation has no negotiating power. The demand side has seen to that by quite effectively busting unions for the past 50 years.
Working in a corporate environment, I have been told point blank and repeatedly that it is a death knell for your career and future prospects if a union starts up at our facility. And I've seen our company spend hundreds of millions of dollars to relocate factories for the express purpose of breaking up the unions.
Lots of theoretically self employed people earning that bit on the side rather than what you'd assume would be the equivalent of full time employment.
I'm also going to disagree with the notion that businesses are eager to train people. Part of the student debt crisis is because businesses expect people to have a skill set tailored to their specific needs, don't need further training and will work for shit wages. Also disagree with the idea that most employees aren't willing to learn. Most of us are willing to learn, the problem is most businesses don't want to provide the training because they dislike the idea that people could leave and that's money not going into their bottom line. So this forces employees to use their own time and resources for professional development.
Finally, quality doesn't seem to be something a ton of these businesses care about. I've seen the spiel at my company, but then watched them outsource stuff to another company that does a worse job. Also watched them automated stuff with terrible accuracy.
I'd love to see what someone with a background in labor management has to say about AI. I suspect they'll mentioned that it's not ready for prime time and that some of the what is lost, will result in a massive backlash, outside of the roaming mobs of angry jobless. Problem is a ton of management is incredibly short-sighted (the glut of entitled heirs that didn't have too work, really exacerbates this, but let's be honest plenty of non-wealthy background types in management helping drive the current problems, that are just as clueless the heirs).
This is true, but not as much as you likely think. Adjusted for inflation the S&P500 is above it's 2000 peak, but not drastically for about 18 years of growth later.
That's just over a 1% return above inflation if you bought at the peak.
The spread between U-3 and U-6 seems pretty normal.
So what you're telling me is that even if I had bought into the stock market at the absolute worst time to do so in the past 20 years, I'd still be making out better than inflation? This, again, shows how much of the growth in the US is occurring but not being shared by all Americans.
And if I look at the Dow in 2009 compared to today, the Dow has quadrupled from 6600 to 24,250. Meanwhile, wages are stagnant. The ultra-rich are getting richer, and everyone else is getting left behind.
Welfare for the wealthy.
My job is to essentially automate myself out of a job.
Automation definitely isn't perfect, and the need for a human element of some kind will be there for, i think (fuckin hope), my life span. However the number of humans necessary to complete tasks is going to start sinking like a stone fairly soon (within my life span), and from my experience management loves worker units that don't get sick... or ever have to stop.
Like, manual quality assurance is dying as a job right now in most major software houses I have contact with. Manual Qa was a solid foot in the door position. You could go a lot of directions in a software house with the right kind of drive in QA (various management layers, dev, dev ops, release engineering).
If everyone is getting "left behind", then no one is getting left behind, everyone is still standing in the same spot relative to each other.
What's happening is that the ultra-rich are getting ahead, but that's mostly because life is full positive feedback loops. The better you do, the easier it becomes to do even better. It goes both ways though, making bad decisions makes it easier to make even worse decisions. So what really matters is, which direction are you going in?
In the end, it's nobody's responsibility to plan your future and make sure you are saving and investing correctly, or going into the right career to support the life you want, or starting the right business. Good luck.
that's hilariously *
you don't always get to make the decisions that affect you. not by a long shot.
*what's the word for an intentionally basic summary that leaves gaping parts of an equation out so that you purposefully arrive at the conclusion you want?
not the one I was thinking of, but it definitely works
On the other hand, there are plenty of people who would love to see the government do this. It would make it a lot easier for them to recruit foot soldiers so they can take over and be the new government.
Or just because it keeps wages low. "Oh, you want a pay raise? I can fire you and replace you with someone who'll work for a loaf of bread a day instead of money. Oh, now you want an extra half a loaf? I can replace you with someone who'll sell a kidney to get into a drawing so they might be your replacement for half a loaf a day."
Or just because they're cruel people who want to see others suffer, because that lets them think they're better than other people. See the corpses of starved, frozen children in the streets and smirk at themselves at how much smarter and better they were to be born into a rich family.
When you start spouting off lines that wouldn't be out of place coming from the villainous count in a movie about the coming of the French Revolution like you were speaking some deep philosophical truth, you are probably coming from a place of deep and unreachable ignorance.
Also, let's be honest. The United States is a country that spent centuries being happy keeping chattel slaves. The wealthy would have no trouble sleeping at night if 99 percent of the rest of their countrymen were sleeping under logs, so long as the money flowed in and the security systems held.
The biggest factor that is leading to inevitable collapse, in my opinion, is that so many people in power want it to happen and are working towards it. They think they'll win, for whatever twisted unhinged definition of "win" they favor.
There are good(some more than others) reports on the subject by McKinsey, PWC & CBInsights. AI is more than ready for prime time(assuming your definition is sensible), some sectors lag behind others, but that will be changing in the coming years.
what?
Crash and burn a company, get a massive golden parachute payout. Shorts and puts.
Easy money, as evidenced by 2008.
For some demographics, at least.
oh, I thought you meant 99% like the lowest earning 99%
which that's absolutely not the case for
Bingo.
No I meant that working hard and forging a career path is useless because the 1% on top would rather get their payday and send a company down in flames than create a robust, profitable long-term enterprise.
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
I've met a few that truly loved the company they had built, but those were all folks that were either lifers with the company (like multiple decade tenures with the company), or literally built the company in a closet, but there are literally firms that do the shit you are talking about as their entire business strategy.
Some firms, maybe, but it's certainly not the epidemic he's making it out to be.
The vast majority of businesses and enterprises want to succeed.
Why?
Failure is much easier and cost-effective these days.
If it's a shitty business? Yes, failing as early as possible is way better because you waste less time trying to prop up something that will never work. Great.
But good luck going through your whole life striving to be nothing but a failure. Seems like that hasn't worked out for a lot of Americans very well...
But the rich will get more money in the short term and can just leave the country after they've sucked it dry and offshored/automated all the jobs, so it's alright.
Yes, you can read about it everywhere, but that doesn't make it true. Retail's issues stem from Bain Capital, not Amazon.
Works for the rich.
Their version of failure is a great success, with 100 million dollar golden parachutes. The definition of success now isn't how long a company goes, or how much good it does, or how awesome it is, or how amazing its employees are. It's how much can we get the shareholders in the shortest time possible.
If you successfully fill the pockets of the shareholders and get a nine-figure pinkslip, I guarantee you'll get hired somewhere else.
For reference, every major bank that went under from the 2008 crash, and how their CEO's got paid with buckets of platinum and then landed sweet high-paying gigs elsewhere.
And once the rich are eliminated what comes next?
I'll stick up and defend short selling and options. Options are quite useful tools for hedging risk and short sellers provide a valuable counterweight to the market's general upward trend.
Executives who hit their revenue targets by short-sighted means just so they can get their bonus payout, and then eventually leave a crippled company while getting an insanely large termination payout are far more destructive to businesses.
No it isn't, people are not golden parachuting their way to riches every day. Get a grip.
Where are you getting "once the rich are elimated" out of that?