Knock-on effects -- like domestic suppliers raising prices to just under the floor price of international goods -- are a hell of a drug
That is how protectionist tariffs are pretty much supposed to work.
Well yeah and now the third order problem is that domestic producers of goods using steel are being hurt annnnnd down the rabbit hole we go
It's quite simple, they just need to hold out until
A) Domestic suppliers feel confident enough that the they will recoup the startup costs of spinning up enough mothballed foundries to meet the current foreign demand and beat the price.
Or
The sanctions to be reversed in three years. Or three months! Who knows!
Hey, seriously though, don't tell the bean counters in option A about option B, ok?
What about C) Do it in a country that aren't affected by the tariffs like Mexico and Canada?
We're talking about domestic producers, who are not affected by tariffs, raising their prices.
This all makes much more sense if you assume that Trump is just the pawn of steel executives using him to make a quick buck. Get him to throw up some tariffs, raise prices and make a bunch of money and then when the tariffs go away in a year or three you just shrug and walk away with your free money.
Except they're getting their pound of flesh from car manufacturers and commercial construction and, and, and. It's not like there aren't other executives with his ear who could also promote their own rotten tariffs.
Those other executives failed though. They weren't good enough at manipulating Trump. It's their loss obviously.
Knock-on effects -- like domestic suppliers raising prices to just under the floor price of international goods -- are a hell of a drug
That is how protectionist tariffs are pretty much supposed to work.
Well yeah and now the third order problem is that domestic producers of goods using steel are being hurt annnnnd down the rabbit hole we go
It's quite simple, they just need to hold out until
A) Domestic suppliers feel confident enough that the they will recoup the startup costs of spinning up enough mothballed foundries to meet the current foreign demand and beat the price.
Or
The sanctions to be reversed in three years. Or three months! Who knows!
Hey, seriously though, don't tell the bean counters in option A about option B, ok?
This all makes much more sense if you assume that Trump is just the pawn of steel executives using him to make a quick buck. Get him to throw up some tariffs, raise prices and make a bunch of money and then when the tariffs go away in a year or three you just shrug and walk away with your free money.
Except they're getting their pound of flesh from car manufacturers and commercial construction and, and, and. It's not like there aren't other executives with his ear who could also promote their own rotten tariffs.
Those other executives failed though. They weren't good enough at manipulating Trump. It's their loss obviously.
I don't know if it's about being "good" enough. There really hasn't been any rhyme or reason, historically, for why a particular mad king listened to a particular unscrupulous advisor.
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EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
An interesting point: Trumps tarrif decisions have lost all of the market gains over the last year, and are still falling.
Will be interesting if we end up at the same level as when he took office before the end of the year.
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
how are we measuring market gains?
the Dow is down to about late November levels, but is 3,000 points higher than a year ago
NASDAQ and S&P 500 similar proportionally
not trying to defend Trump or anything, but they haven't lost all the gains of the last year
i think it could be argued this is the first case of a definitely Trump policy decision's effects on the markets though, and clearly it was not beneficial
Allegedly a voice of reason.
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
edited March 2018
also significant to note we are in one of three significant downturns in the market that have occurred in the last five years
the other two being november 2016 and january 2017
I WONDER WHAT WAS HAPPENING AT THOSE TIMES
e: there were two larger downturns in the middle of 2015 and 2016 that i missed, so uh, maybe not the strongest thesis here but
Chanus on
Allegedly a voice of reason.
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ElldrenIs a woman dammitceterum censeoRegistered Userregular
the Dow is down to about late November levels, but is 3,000 points higher than a year ago
NASDAQ and S&P 500 similar proportionally
not trying to defend Trump or anything, but they haven't lost all the gains of the last year
i think it could be argued this is the first case of a definitely Trump policy decision's effects on the markets though, and clearly it was not beneficial
I think he meant all the gains since the beginning of the year, which yes
fuck gendered marketing
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
the Dow is down to about late November levels, but is 3,000 points higher than a year ago
NASDAQ and S&P 500 similar proportionally
not trying to defend Trump or anything, but they haven't lost all the gains of the last year
i think it could be argued this is the first case of a definitely Trump policy decision's effects on the markets though, and clearly it was not beneficial
I think he meant all the gains since the beginning of the year, which yes
oh, yeah since january would be the case
Allegedly a voice of reason.
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EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
I would like to claim what Elldren said as true, but the fact is I mathed bad when looking at a chart of the DOW earlier (last 6 months rather than last year).
Can I be president now?
+3
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
look we all make mistakes >.>
Allegedly a voice of reason.
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EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
Vote Enc: Probably Definitely not worse than Trump at Math. Maybe. Probably.
More importantly, most of the prosperity through 2016 and 2017 was all inertial movement from the prior administration and policies. Trump hadn't actually done anything recognizable as far as economic policy yet. You know outside of the rich thinking he'd make everything awesome for them so they had no problem finally going hog wild on the valuation of stocks. Now that he's making actual policy moves he's just totally fuckin everything
I just hope someone out there is taking a hard look at Trump's family and friends. Rather than those close to him being hurt by all of this, I suspect most if not all will thrive.
Black lives matter.
Law and Order ≠ Justice
ACNH Island Isla Cero: DA-3082-2045-4142
Captain of the SES Comptroller of the State
also significant to note we are in one of three significant downturns in the market that have occurred in the last five years
the other two being november 2016 and january 2017
I WONDER WHAT WAS HAPPENING AT THOSE TIMES
e: there were two larger downturns in the middle of 2015 and 2016 that i missed, so uh, maybe not the strongest thesis here but
When in 2015 and the other 2016 did those downturns happen? Trump announced his his presidency June 16, 2015, aka middle of 2015, and I could see any number of things Trump said during his campaign kicking off another downturn.
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
also significant to note we are in one of three significant downturns in the market that have occurred in the last five years
the other two being november 2016 and january 2017
I WONDER WHAT WAS HAPPENING AT THOSE TIMES
e: there were two larger downturns in the middle of 2015 and 2016 that i missed, so uh, maybe not the strongest thesis here but
When in 2015 and the other 2016 did those downturns happen? Trump announced his his presidency June 16, 2015, aka middle of 2015, and I could see any number of things Trump said during his campaign kicking off another downturn.
august 2015 and then january 2016
Allegedly a voice of reason.
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
More importantly, most of the prosperity through 2016 and 2017 was all inertial movement from the prior administration and policies. Trump hadn't actually done anything recognizable as far as economic policy yet. You know outside of the rich thinking he'd make everything awesome for them so they had no problem finally going hog wild on the valuation of stocks. Now that he's making actual policy moves he's just totally fuckin everything
The prosperity was inertia. The stock market was in a clear bubble through 2017 because the rich thought they'd get all sorts of perks for being rich so they could keep pumping money into stocks, keep riding high on the hog forever, and they got caught up in their own self-made delusion of continuing rising gains. Because the stock market is mostly mass delusion when you get down to it. That's how it can so easily switch from party to panic.
Back to the steel thing, I was surprised because lots of Trump towers were built using cheap Chinese steel. Why then tariff it?
Well those are already built, and we've since mitigated a lot of issues with Chinese steel, to the point where it's a small fraction of US steel imports.
Our biggest steel imports are from countries already exempt from the new tariffs. It's all political theatre.
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AthenorBattle Hardened OptimistThe Skies of HiigaraRegistered Userregular
This morning, NPR had on Peter Navarro, White House Trade Advisor, to talk about the "historic" trade agreement with South Korea.
In essence, we are instituting quotas, forcing them to buy more of our cars, and generally weakening our trade with them, IMO.
At first I missed who was actually talking when listening to this segment. It blew my mind how vehemently the person was staying on brand, talking about how steel and aluminum are the foundation of our very society, and the trade deficit growing 4x when we signed some historically bad trade deal (he cited NAFTA and bringing China into the WTO as two of the three worst trade deals). By the end of the segment I was convinced they had to be working in or very near the white house.
Interestingly, the reporter brought up the amount of leverage we have over South Korea - not exactly mentioning our military presence, but implying it - and Navarro shrugged that off, suggesting that we can make similar trades elsewhere.
Also, he espoused that "Everyone" knew the tariffs were temporary until May 1st, to give countries time to negotiate. It was the first I'd heard about this -- which makes me think he was trying to put a positive spin on dropping this bomb on the world.
It's really worth a listen, 6 minutes of absolutely refusing the answer the reporter.
The difference between short-dated and longer-dated US Treasury yields narrowed to a level last seen in 2007 on Wednesday, as investors weighed the prospect of a quicker pace of interest rate increases with rising uncertainties over the outlook for global growth...
Investors pointed to a growing dislocation between the current positive economic environment and tension over the potential for sustained growth and inflation as reasons for the pronounced flattening of the yield curve.
The move has been exacerbated by the bumper issuance of US government bonds this week as well as lingering concerns over the prospect of a trade war between the US and China...
A flattening yield curve is often regarded as a predictor of a recession.
So this doesn't sound like good news, especially considering Republicans have done unprecedented work over the last 8 or so years to ensure we are horribly ill-prepared to deal with another major recession.
I'm a bit rusty on my macro, so I don't know exactly how alarming this is, but I do know it's not a good sign given we never took advantage of the previous recession to pull the right levers and bolster the economy on anything other than investor confidence.
In essence, we are instituting quotas, forcing them to buy more of our cars, and generally weakening our trade with them, IMO.
At first I missed who was actually talking when listening to this segment. It blew my mind how vehemently the person was staying on brand, talking about how steel and aluminum are the foundation of our very society, and the trade deficit growing 4x when we signed some historically bad trade deal (he cited NAFTA and bringing China into the WTO as two of the three worst trade deals). By the end of the segment I was convinced they had to be working in or very near the white house.
Interestingly, the reporter brought up the amount of leverage we have over South Korea - not exactly mentioning our military presence, but implying it - and Navarro shrugged that off, suggesting that we can make similar trades elsewhere.
Also, he espoused that "Everyone" knew the tariffs were temporary until May 1st, to give countries time to negotiate. It was the first I'd heard about this -- which makes me think he was trying to put a positive spin on dropping this bomb on the world.
It's really worth a listen, 6 minutes of absolutely refusing the answer the reporter.
So this guy...
There’s this nice snippet that highlights how he views his position: In explaining his role in the Trump administration, Navarro said that he is there to "provide the underlying analytics that confirm [Trump's] intuition [on trade]. And his intuition is always right in these matters."
Bolded his from his lips, quoted in a Bloomberg article.
It’s worthless to interview him, as he’s the perfect quantum advisor
So what are we, 18 months at most from Wall Street figuring out that they hit the Balrog and kept on digging?
"ROOARR!"
"Keep digging boys! Look at all this beautiful red gold!"
"ROOOOOOAAAAARRRRRR! STEEL TAXES! NATIONALISM!!! ROOOARRRR!"
"Woo, look how low taxes are over here!"
"ROOOOAARRR! TARRIIIFFFS!! IMMIGRATION BANS! ROOARR ROAR!
"This is awesome, look at these beautiful leathery wings! I can't wait to sell them"
"LOOK BOYS, I DONT QUITE UNDERSTAND WHAT IS GOING ON HERE. BUT IM STILL GOING TO EAT YOU"
Crunch crunch
"Great, Steve is gone! More money for the rest of us!"
"ERR, I ATE HIM. I'M GOING TO EAT YOU TOO. USUALLY THERE IS RUNNING? I LIKE THE RUNNING"
Crunch crunch
"Just me and you left Jessica, so many oportunities!"
"That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
+21
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ButtersA glass of some milksRegistered Userregular
fun fact about our automobile trade with south korea
what few american cars they do buy are manufactured in europe
nothing about our modern world makes sense anymore / is done "like it used to be"
which is why so many people are confused, ignorant, fearful, and want to go back to "how it used to be".
It makes plenty of sense of you bother to actually look anything up. The supply chain makes it easier for the Asian and European plants to serve Asia and Europe while the North American plants serve North America. It's the same reason all major foreign car makers manufacture in the United States too.
fun fact about our automobile trade with south korea
what few american cars they do buy are manufactured in europe
nothing about our modern world makes sense anymore / is done "like it used to be"
which is why so many people are confused, ignorant, fearful, and want to go back to "how it used to be".
It makes plenty of sense of you bother to actually look anything up. The supply chain makes it easier for the Asian and European plants to serve Asia and Europe while the North American plants serve North America. It's the same reason all major foreign car makers manufacture in the United States too.
A big part of it is acting like companies consider themselves an "American Company" and not just a "Company".
fun fact about our automobile trade with south korea
what few american cars they do buy are manufactured in europe
nothing about our modern world makes sense anymore / is done "like it used to be"
which is why so many people are confused, ignorant, fearful, and want to go back to "how it used to be".
It makes plenty of sense of you bother to actually look anything up. The supply chain makes it easier for the Asian and European plants to serve Asia and Europe while the North American plants serve North America. It's the same reason all major foreign car makers manufacture in the United States too.
A big part of it is acting like companies consider themselves an "American Company" and not just a "Company".
What we're hearing: Trump has talked about changing Amazon’s tax treatment because he’s worried about mom-and-pop retailers being put out of business.
A source who’s spoken to POTUS: “He’s wondered aloud if there may be any way to go after Amazon with antitrust or competition law."
Trump’s deep-seated antipathy toward Amazon surfaces when discussing tax policy and antitrust cases. The president would love to clip CEO Jeff Bezos’ wings. But he doesn’t have a plan to make that happen.
Behind the president's thinking: Trump's wealthy friends tell him Amazon is destroying their businesses. His real estate buddies tell him — and he agrees — that Amazon is killing shopping malls and brick-and-mortar retailers.
Trump tells people Amazon has gotten a free ride from taxpayers and cushy treatment from the U.S. Postal Service.
“The whole post office thing, that's very much a perception he has,” another source said. “It's been explained to him in multiple meetings that his perception is inaccurate and that the post office actually makes a ton of money from Amazon."
Axios' Ina Fried notes: The Postal Service actually added delivery on Sunday in some cities because Amazon made it worthwhile.
Trump also pays close attention to the Amazon founder's ownership of The Washington Post, which the president views as Bezos’ political weapon.
Seriously Trump? You don't understand the concept of fee for fucking service and the Post Office is pleased as punch to have something to replace lost letter volume?
Like i hate the dystopian future presented by Amazon, and even i gotta call that a dumb reason to target them. They send the most packages, and they fuckin pay a shit load of money to do so.
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AstaerethIn the belly of the beastRegistered Userregular
We’re back to picking winners and losers again, I see. The invisible hand of the free market is looking a little small.
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EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
Man, without Amazon, Blue Apron, Netflix, and Google literally my entire lifestyle would collapse.
Man, without Amazon, Blue Apron, Netflix, and Google literally my entire lifestyle would collapse.
If your goal is to piss off liberals, targeting the businesses that support their lifestyles makes sense. Terrible, terrible sense. Boomers hate what all the "kids" are doing? Take their toys away so they have to go back to the old ways.
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
target places that are making it difficult for mom and pop shops
Posts
We're talking about domestic producers, who are not affected by tariffs, raising their prices.
Those other executives failed though. They weren't good enough at manipulating Trump. It's their loss obviously.
About
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_tax
55 years later and parts of that one are *still* in effect and fucking with the US car market.
I don't know if it's about being "good" enough. There really hasn't been any rhyme or reason, historically, for why a particular mad king listened to a particular unscrupulous advisor.
Will be interesting if we end up at the same level as when he took office before the end of the year.
the Dow is down to about late November levels, but is 3,000 points higher than a year ago
NASDAQ and S&P 500 similar proportionally
not trying to defend Trump or anything, but they haven't lost all the gains of the last year
i think it could be argued this is the first case of a definitely Trump policy decision's effects on the markets though, and clearly it was not beneficial
the other two being november 2016 and january 2017
I WONDER WHAT WAS HAPPENING AT THOSE TIMES
e: there were two larger downturns in the middle of 2015 and 2016 that i missed, so uh, maybe not the strongest thesis here but
I think he meant all the gains since the beginning of the year, which yes
oh, yeah since january would be the case
Can I be president now?
Law and Order ≠ Justice
ACNH Island Isla Cero: DA-3082-2045-4142
Captain of the SES Comptroller of the State
When in 2015 and the other 2016 did those downturns happen? Trump announced his his presidency June 16, 2015, aka middle of 2015, and I could see any number of things Trump said during his campaign kicking off another downturn.
august 2015 and then january 2016
The prosperity was inertia. The stock market was in a clear bubble through 2017 because the rich thought they'd get all sorts of perks for being rich so they could keep pumping money into stocks, keep riding high on the hog forever, and they got caught up in their own self-made delusion of continuing rising gains. Because the stock market is mostly mass delusion when you get down to it. That's how it can so easily switch from party to panic.
Well those are already built, and we've since mitigated a lot of issues with Chinese steel, to the point where it's a small fraction of US steel imports.
Our biggest steel imports are from countries already exempt from the new tariffs. It's all political theatre.
https://www.npr.org/2018/03/28/597556727/trump-administration-strikes-major-trade-deal-with-south-korea
In essence, we are instituting quotas, forcing them to buy more of our cars, and generally weakening our trade with them, IMO.
At first I missed who was actually talking when listening to this segment. It blew my mind how vehemently the person was staying on brand, talking about how steel and aluminum are the foundation of our very society, and the trade deficit growing 4x when we signed some historically bad trade deal (he cited NAFTA and bringing China into the WTO as two of the three worst trade deals). By the end of the segment I was convinced they had to be working in or very near the white house.
Interestingly, the reporter brought up the amount of leverage we have over South Korea - not exactly mentioning our military presence, but implying it - and Navarro shrugged that off, suggesting that we can make similar trades elsewhere.
Also, he espoused that "Everyone" knew the tariffs were temporary until May 1st, to give countries time to negotiate. It was the first I'd heard about this -- which makes me think he was trying to put a positive spin on dropping this bomb on the world.
It's really worth a listen, 6 minutes of absolutely refusing the answer the reporter.
what few american cars they do buy are manufactured in europe
nothing about our modern world makes sense anymore / is done "like it used to be"
which is why so many people are confused, ignorant, fearful, and want to go back to "how it used to be".
So this doesn't sound like good news, especially considering Republicans have done unprecedented work over the last 8 or so years to ensure we are horribly ill-prepared to deal with another major recession.
I'm a bit rusty on my macro, so I don't know exactly how alarming this is, but I do know it's not a good sign given we never took advantage of the previous recession to pull the right levers and bolster the economy on anything other than investor confidence.
Oh, wait. Fuck, that's not good news at all. Turns out taxes pay for things.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/asia-stocks-tip-losses-after-u-s-tech-slides-markets-wrap
So this guy...
There’s this nice snippet that highlights how he views his position:
In explaining his role in the Trump administration, Navarro said that he is there to "provide the underlying analytics that confirm [Trump's] intuition [on trade]. And his intuition is always right in these matters."
Bolded his from his lips, quoted in a Bloomberg article.
It’s worthless to interview him, as he’s the perfect quantum advisor
Come Overwatch with meeeee
"ROOARR!"
"Keep digging boys! Look at all this beautiful red gold!"
"ROOOOOOAAAAARRRRRR! STEEL TAXES! NATIONALISM!!! ROOOARRRR!"
"Woo, look how low taxes are over here!"
"ROOOOAARRR! TARRIIIFFFS!! IMMIGRATION BANS! ROOARR ROAR!
"This is awesome, look at these beautiful leathery wings! I can't wait to sell them"
"LOOK BOYS, I DONT QUITE UNDERSTAND WHAT IS GOING ON HERE. BUT IM STILL GOING TO EAT YOU"
Crunch crunch
"Great, Steve is gone! More money for the rest of us!"
"ERR, I ATE HIM. I'M GOING TO EAT YOU TOO. USUALLY THERE IS RUNNING? I LIKE THE RUNNING"
Crunch crunch
"Just me and you left Jessica, so many oportunities!"
It makes plenty of sense of you bother to actually look anything up. The supply chain makes it easier for the Asian and European plants to serve Asia and Europe while the North American plants serve North America. It's the same reason all major foreign car makers manufacture in the United States too.
A big part of it is acting like companies consider themselves an "American Company" and not just a "Company".
Please. They're all British Virgin companies now.
Axios reported yesterday that Trump is unhappy with Amazon:
Axios also brags of the drop on Amazon stock (and others) after their report.
And, fresh from today, here's the Trump Tweet:
If your goal is to piss off liberals, targeting the businesses that support their lifestyles makes sense. Terrible, terrible sense. Boomers hate what all the "kids" are doing? Take their toys away so they have to go back to the old ways.
but not walmart or hobby lobby