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The revival of [The Economy] (thread) and the potential for its coming collapse

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  • ChaosHatChaosHat Hop, hop, hop, HA! Trick of the lightRegistered User regular
    edited October 2018
    I looooove seeing the kind of dorks who buy like, Tundras and 4Runners and get the super big wheels and they put the "Prius Repellent" bumper stickers on there and they're always so perfect and shiny looking and they always walk around the car before and after to see if there's even a hint of damage.

    Yeah your big manly truck is soooooo impressive I bet you do all kinds of real MAN work with it because you're not a pussy who drives a hybrid car.

    The Prius repellent thing is ironic too since it's only because the Prius is so efficient that they can afford to offer these horrible gas hogs due to fuel economy regulations.

    ChaosHat on
  • L Ron HowardL Ron Howard The duck MinnesotaRegistered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    I'd like to see proof that a majority of pickup sales are by businesses but even if they are high-end trucks have slowly (thanks to relatively low gas prices) become the best selling luxury vehicles in the US.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2016/01/25/the-best-selling-luxury-cars-are-now-pickup-trucks/#61bd9f3f3582

    Joe the Plumber isn't buying a King Ranch or Platinum F-150 and it's those vehicles Ford is making their absurd margins on.

    Ford as a company lives and dies on fleet sales, especially in the U.S. and Europe. Local laws preventing governments from buying foreign cars is a major lifeline to the industry.

    The best selling vehicle of all time is a Ford F-150, according to Top Gear. I don't imagine that many fleets use that many F-150s. Mostly F-250s and F-350s, as well as their vans.

  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    Fancy trucks are the new sports cars for rural and suburban office workers who like to imagine they are tough farmers. They aren’t intended for work use - too pretty.

    They're pretty but their frames and engines are no joke. Modern half-tons can tow three times what any of their average buyers need now. The F-150 Platinum packs a V8 with 400 HP and 480 lb-ft of torque while it's (generally) sitting in traffic on a Houston outerbelt getting 12MPG for its single passenger commuting to their office job.

    US truck culture is ultra dumb.

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  • mRahmanimRahmani DetroitRegistered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    I don't think so. GM isn't doing this neither is Chrysler. Ford just has stupid margins on their trucks thanks to customer brand loyalty and they think this move will increase dividends for shareholders.

    If you've never priced out a pickup you'd be shocked to see what they charge for options compared to cars. The margins are absolutely insane.

    Chrysler axed their cars as well. The only remaining ones are the Charger, 300 (fancy Charger), and Challenger (2 door Charger.)

    There's a couple things being conflated here. Not selling traditional sedans and hatchbacks doesn't mean Ford only builds luxury pickups (which I'll come back to in a moment.) The market as a whole has skewed sharply away from cars toward crossovers, where Ford is well-positioned with the Ecosport/Escape/Edge/Explorer. Factors driving this are a perceived safety increase (All wheel drive and ride height), "good enough" fuel economy (typical crossovers score similar fuel economy to normal cars from the late 00s), and better ergonomics for aging customers (specifically ingress/egress - it's easier to step into the vehicle than have to lower yourself onto a sedan seat.)

    Luxury pickups are the most profitable vehicles, certainly, and they've skyrocketed in popularity for a variety of reasons. Yes, there is a "rah rah" tough guy element, but that's a small niche in the market; otherwise, F-150 Raptors would be outselling the Platinum and Limited trims. For one, fuel economy has increased sharply, with most pickups able to hit mid-20 mpgs in highway driving. Crew cab trucks have cavernous interior space, easily accommodating a family + cargo for any shopping or road trip. They've essentially evolved into a continuation of the classic American luxury car, the kind of land yacht that seats 6 and drives like piloting a lazy boy down the road. A lot of people love that, even if they have no desire to throw anything in the bed. Combine it with above average resale value and it's not surprising they sell well.

  • MovitzMovitz Registered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    I'd like to see proof that a majority of pickup sales are by businesses but even if they are high-end trucks have slowly (thanks to relatively low gas prices) become the best selling luxury vehicles in the US.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2016/01/25/the-best-selling-luxury-cars-are-now-pickup-trucks/#61bd9f3f3582

    Joe the Plumber isn't buying a King Ranch or Platinum F-150 and it's those vehicles Ford is making their absurd margins on.

    Ford as a company lives and dies on fleet sales, especially in the U.S. and Europe. Local laws preventing governments from buying foreign cars is a major lifeline to the industry.

    The best selling vehicle of all time is a Ford F-150, according to Top Gear. I don't imagine that many fleets use that many F-150s. Mostly F-250s and F-350s, as well as their vans.

    *in the US, and it's cumulative sales since 1948 according to wikipedia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_automobiles#National_bestsellers

  • ChaosHatChaosHat Hop, hop, hop, HA! Trick of the lightRegistered User regular
    Hmm, apparently the humble Corolla is the best selling car of all time. I guess that makes a lot more sense than the F-150. I wonder how the US numbers compare from like, the inception of the Corolla, Civic, whatever other normal sedan sized things forward.

  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    ChaosHat wrote: »
    Hmm, apparently the humble Corolla is the best selling car of all time. I guess that makes a lot more sense than the F-150. I wonder how the US numbers compare from like, the inception of the Corolla, Civic, whatever other normal sedan sized things forward.

    Corollas are super popular with rental companies.

  • ChaosHatChaosHat Hop, hop, hop, HA! Trick of the lightRegistered User regular
    I mean it's also just a cheap, reliable, and efficient car for the masses too. The F-150 bragging about its numbers always seemed odd to me since like, it's not super practical unless you're hauling shit and it starts at $27k and the Corolla starts for almost 10k less.

  • mRahmanimRahmani DetroitRegistered User regular
    Fancy trucks are the new sports cars for rural and suburban office workers who like to imagine they are tough farmers. They aren’t intended for work use - too pretty.

    Most of them actually are being put to work. Just because the bed isn't scratched up and muddy doesn't mean the truck doesn't do any work.

    Every single pickup truck owner that I know gets used for applications that a normal passenger car doesn't fill. My dad's truck tows a 30' camper and has been used extensively for ferrying sod, gravel, and lumber for their home remodel. My brother in law and father in law use both of theirs to haul tools and ladders around for work during the week and for dirtbikes, jetskis, and their boat on weekends. Most families can't afford or don't have space to have one small car for daily runabout activities and a truck for weekend work, so if they need to narrow it down to a single vehicle the truck wins out. A truck can get semi-reasonable gas mileage during the 9-5 commute and fit the whole family, but a Prius can't tow an 8000 lb boat or camper.

  • TNTrooperTNTrooper Registered User regular
    mRahmani wrote: »
    Fancy trucks are the new sports cars for rural and suburban office workers who like to imagine they are tough farmers. They aren’t intended for work use - too pretty.

    Most of them actually are being put to work. Just because the bed isn't scratched up and muddy doesn't mean the truck doesn't do any work.

    Every single pickup truck owner that I know gets used for applications that a normal passenger car doesn't fill. My dad's truck tows a 30' camper and has been used extensively for ferrying sod, gravel, and lumber for their home remodel. My brother in law and father in law use both of theirs to haul tools and ladders around for work during the week and for dirtbikes, jetskis, and their boat on weekends. Most families can't afford or don't have space to have one small car for daily runabout activities and a truck for weekend work, so if they need to narrow it down to a single vehicle the truck wins out. A truck can get semi-reasonable gas mileage during the 9-5 commute and fit the whole family, but a Prius can't tow an 8000 lb boat or camper.

    Most families don't have boats, dirtbikes, jetskies, or a 30' camper.

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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Trucks absolutely have a place. My nextdoor neighbor has one and we borrowed it to take a bed frame to a Habitat for Humanity fundraiser thing because we literally had no other way to transport it. (It was an older truck that had over 200,000 miles on it and was still in great condition - I was rather impressed, honestly).

    I just kinda get annoyed at how HUGE trucks have become. Something about gas regulations being different on the category has pushed them in a different direction from other types of cars to where they're these hulking monsters that have four tires in the back and are an extra foot wider or something. And I think that a lot of people who have trucks aren't pushing for the "mentality" thing people here mention - there's just some shit which is too big to fit in regular cars, and you may only need to move them around once a month, or once every couple months, but it's useful to have one around. And not everyone can have a car for "as needed", so they get the car for regular use which meets the most extreme criteria, and I GET THAT.

    I just wish smaller trucks still...you know...existed.

  • mRahmanimRahmani DetroitRegistered User regular
    edited October 2018
    TNTrooper wrote: »
    mRahmani wrote: »
    Fancy trucks are the new sports cars for rural and suburban office workers who like to imagine they are tough farmers. They aren’t intended for work use - too pretty.

    Most of them actually are being put to work. Just because the bed isn't scratched up and muddy doesn't mean the truck doesn't do any work.

    Every single pickup truck owner that I know gets used for applications that a normal passenger car doesn't fill. My dad's truck tows a 30' camper and has been used extensively for ferrying sod, gravel, and lumber for their home remodel. My brother in law and father in law use both of theirs to haul tools and ladders around for work during the week and for dirtbikes, jetskis, and their boat on weekends. Most families can't afford or don't have space to have one small car for daily runabout activities and a truck for weekend work, so if they need to narrow it down to a single vehicle the truck wins out. A truck can get semi-reasonable gas mileage during the 9-5 commute and fit the whole family, but a Prius can't tow an 8000 lb boat or camper.

    Most families don't have boats, dirtbikes, jetskies, or a 30' camper.

    Most families also don't have trucks. Trucks basically exist in suburbia and rural areas, where Home Depot runs and camping/powersports toys are a big thing.

    People dropping $70k on a pickup truck absolutely have a cushy 5th wheel camper to tow behind it.
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Trucks absolutely have a place. My nextdoor neighbor has one and we borrowed it to take a bed frame to a Habitat for Humanity fundraiser thing because we literally had no other way to transport it. (It was an older truck that had over 200,000 miles on it and was still in great condition - I was rather impressed, honestly).

    I just kinda get annoyed at how HUGE trucks have become. Something about gas regulations being different on the category has pushed them in a different direction from other types of cars to where they're these hulking monsters that have four tires in the back and are an extra foot wider or something. And I think that a lot of people who have trucks aren't pushing for the "mentality" thing people here mention - there's just some shit which is too big to fit in regular cars, and you may only need to move them around once a month, or once every couple months, but it's useful to have one around. And not everyone can have a car for "as needed", so they get the car for regular use which meets the most extreme criteria, and I GET THAT.

    I just wish smaller trucks still...you know...existed.

    Smaller trucks do exist. Toyota Tacoma, Chevy Colorado/GMC Canyon, and Nissan Frontier are still available, with the Ford Ranger rejoining the market next year. But they are a smaller market, because full-size trucks are a lot more capable for not a lot more money.

    mRahmani on
  • ChaosHatChaosHat Hop, hop, hop, HA! Trick of the lightRegistered User regular
    Having lived in ruralandia I can tell you a bunch of poor people buy exorbitantly expensive trucks for like no real actual reason than virtue signaling (sometimes by putting an enormous flag pole with the Confederate flag in the bed.)

  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    ChaosHat wrote: »
    Having lived in ruralandia I can tell you a bunch of poor people buy exorbitantly expensive trucks for like no real actual reason than virtue signaling (sometimes by putting an enormous flag pole with the Confederate flag in the bed.)

    The car manufacturers did a great job in the '80s and '90s in linking having a big truck with masculinity.

  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    People dropping $70k on a pickup truck absolutely have a cushy 5th wheel camper to tow behind it.

    Nah. My old man bought a 250 Platinum and all he has is 20-foot fishing boat that a quarter ton could pull no problem.

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  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Central OhioRegistered User regular
    edited October 2018
    So if I were a vehicle manufacturer and thought that for a variety of reasons individual (not family) car ownership for transportation only was going to decline, I might want to focus just on vehicles that serve a different niche purpose, such as family transportation, hauling/towing/mobile office or wealth display....also those niche vehicles (not the best word admittedly) also have huge, tasty margins...

    Also if I were a bank that got 15% of my current total revenue from car loans to consumers (*cough*), I might want to look at how I can insure I can win on luxury/high dollar loans for trucks (the super/exotic car leasing business is incidental, not big enough for a big bank to pay attention to), or win on commercial loans for fleet sales...or else get super good at winning an increasing share of a shrinking market for consumer car loans.

    I mean this has nothing to do with how the tariffs are fucking over Ford right now, I just find these changes in auto industry economics interesting!

    Captain Inertia on
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  • ChaosHatChaosHat Hop, hop, hop, HA! Trick of the lightRegistered User regular
    ChaosHat wrote: »
    Having lived in ruralandia I can tell you a bunch of poor people buy exorbitantly expensive trucks for like no real actual reason than virtue signaling (sometimes by putting an enormous flag pole with the Confederate flag in the bed.)

    The car manufacturers did a great job in the '80s and '90s in linking having a big truck with masculinity.

    I mean that kind of goes for all cars though, right? There's a reason the smartcar and vespa haven't taken off in this country, even in the cities.

  • mRahmanimRahmani DetroitRegistered User regular
    a
    ChaosHat wrote: »
    ChaosHat wrote: »
    Having lived in ruralandia I can tell you a bunch of poor people buy exorbitantly expensive trucks for like no real actual reason than virtue signaling (sometimes by putting an enormous flag pole with the Confederate flag in the bed.)

    The car manufacturers did a great job in the '80s and '90s in linking having a big truck with masculinity.

    I mean that kind of goes for all cars though, right? There's a reason the smartcar and vespa haven't taken off in this country, even in the cities.

    The Smart car failed because it's only redeeming attribute is being easy to park. It actually gets worse gas mileage than the Civic/Corolla/etc, which are all much larger and seat 4-5 people. To say nothing of midsize hybrids like a Prius or Volt.

    The Vespa I think has done fairly well as a cheap commuter bike, but its limited speed makes it a no go for anybody who needs to use a freeway.

  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    The smart car always boggled my mind. Its fuel economy was garbage it was super tiny and was barely more practical than owning a motorcycle and it was not inexpensive either. It was basically the worst of all worlds.

  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    kaid wrote: »
    The smart car always boggled my mind. Its fuel economy was garbage it was super tiny and was barely more practical than owning a motorcycle and it was not inexpensive either. It was basically the worst of all worlds.

    The SmartCar just looks and feels dangerous. I glanced at one when I was shopping, went nope, and bought a Honda Fit.

  • HefflingHeffling No Pic EverRegistered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Trucks absolutely have a place. My nextdoor neighbor has one and we borrowed it to take a bed frame to a Habitat for Humanity fundraiser thing because we literally had no other way to transport it. (It was an older truck that had over 200,000 miles on it and was still in great condition - I was rather impressed, honestly).

    I just kinda get annoyed at how HUGE trucks have become. Something about gas regulations being different on the category has pushed them in a different direction from other types of cars to where they're these hulking monsters that have four tires in the back and are an extra foot wider or something. And I think that a lot of people who have trucks aren't pushing for the "mentality" thing people here mention - there's just some shit which is too big to fit in regular cars, and you may only need to move them around once a month, or once every couple months, but it's useful to have one around. And not everyone can have a car for "as needed", so they get the car for regular use which meets the most extreme criteria, and I GET THAT.

    I just wish smaller trucks still...you know...existed.

    Trucks do have a place. At the rental company. So many people buy a truck to use as their daily commuter and rarely tow or hold anything. The money you could save on gas would more than pay for renting a truck or u-haul once or twice a year when it's actually needed.

  • AbacusAbacus Registered User regular
    A truck is also a source of income if needed, since moving stuff around, specially from the city to the rural/suburbia parts and back is always needed. Same reason as why people become Uber drivers.

    On the high-end of things, the value of a car as a collectible (basically Magic cards for rich people), is not related to things as fuel efficiency, but how rare and how fancy and yes, how big it is.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    I still feel like a 25% price hike on your most essential raw materials out of nowhere is a bigger driver of layoffs than the slow moving trend of fewer cars per household. Especially since that trend is a pretty shallow dip. Also, automation since it's not like any windfall at Ford in anything is going to go to a lineworker first.

  • AbacusAbacus Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    I still feel like a 25% price hike on your most essential raw materials out of nowhere is a bigger driver of layoffs than the slow moving trend of fewer cars per household. Especially since that trend is a pretty shallow dip. Also, automation since it's not like any windfall at Ford in anything is going to go to a lineworker first.

    Better a robot than a sweatshop, if nothing else. "But automation!" is a particularly vapid argument. The whole trade thing so far has been a lot of apocalyptic rhetoric for internal consumption and not enough substance of what actually goes on on the negotiation table.

  • Fartacus_the_MightyFartacus_the_Mighty Brought to you by the letter A.Registered User regular
    The Ford stuff is unfortunate, especially for the folks who're gonna be out of work. I'm not sure why Trump thought slapping huge tariffs on steel (and aluminum! Ford trucks use all aluminum panels now) was going to do anything other than help US steel producers at the expense of every industry that uses steel.


    truck stuff
    Butters wrote: »
    Fancy trucks are the new sports cars for rural and suburban office workers who like to imagine they are tough farmers. They aren’t intended for work use - too pretty.

    They're pretty but their frames and engines are no joke. Modern half-tons can tow three times what any of their average buyers need now. The F-150 Platinum packs a V8 with 400 HP and 480 lb-ft of torque while it's (generally) sitting in traffic on a Houston outerbelt getting 12MPG for its single passenger commuting to their office job.

    US truck culture is ultra dumb.

    I've always heard them referred to as "Glamor Trucks", and they've been a thing for a long time. They've just got a wider appeal now, for some reason. On a side note, it has been kind of amazing to see the advancements in tech/amenities that trucks are getting, now that more people are using them for commuter/general-use vehicles. A 2015+ F-150 can get nearly identical performance to that V8, but with an auto stop/start V6 that gets 17/23mpg. They even come with parking assist now, so Bob from Accounting's manly new behemoth will parallel park itself at the push of a button.

    As someone said before, though, luxury trucks are freaking expensive. A F-150 Limited with all the bling will run you upwards of $80k.

  • So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Trucks absolutely have a place. My nextdoor neighbor has one and we borrowed it to take a bed frame to a Habitat for Humanity fundraiser thing because we literally had no other way to transport it. (It was an older truck that had over 200,000 miles on it and was still in great condition - I was rather impressed, honestly).

    I just kinda get annoyed at how HUGE trucks have become. Something about gas regulations being different on the category has pushed them in a different direction from other types of cars to where they're these hulking monsters that have four tires in the back and are an extra foot wider or something. And I think that a lot of people who have trucks aren't pushing for the "mentality" thing people here mention - there's just some shit which is too big to fit in regular cars, and you may only need to move them around once a month, or once every couple months, but it's useful to have one around. And not everyone can have a car for "as needed", so they get the car for regular use which meets the most extreme criteria, and I GET THAT.

    I just wish smaller trucks still...you know...existed.

    This isn't a car or truck thread.

    Reel it in please.

  • KnightKnight Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    dow got torched today.

    lot of uncertainty over the interest rates, and i guess something with tech stocks because they got hit pretty hard too. reading some articles they are speculating the market had priced in deescalation with china leading up to the midterms.

    whoops.

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    At some point people are going to realize that Twitter is not worth $20bn and we'll have another crash. I just hope it goes a couple more years is all.

  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    moniker wrote: »
    At some point people are going to realize that Twitter is not worth $20bn and we'll have another crash. I just hope it goes a couple more years is all.

    Just in time to blame it on the next D admin? That's how it usually works.

    Commander Zoom on
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    At some point people are going to realize that Twitter is not worth $20bn and we'll have another crash. I just hope it goes a couple more years is all.

    Just in time to blame it on the next D admin? That's how it usually works.

    After they finish restoring the old post office, uptown theater, cook county hospital, and we get our emergency fund back up to pre-down payment levels.

  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    At some point people are going to realize that Twitter is not worth $20bn and we'll have another crash. I just hope it goes a couple more years is all.

    Just in time to blame it on the next D admin? That's how it usually works.

    Republicans have the party, Democrats sweep up afterwards.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Knight_ wrote: »
    dow got torched today.

    lot of uncertainty over the interest rates, and i guess something with tech stocks because they got hit pretty hard too. reading some articles they are speculating the market had priced in deescalation with china leading up to the midterms.

    whoops.

    If true, that's hilarious.

    I really wonder how long it will take for those fucks in the business community to finally wise up and realize Trump doesn't give a shit and is gonna burn us all.

  • NotYouNotYou Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Knight_ wrote: »
    dow got torched today.

    lot of uncertainty over the interest rates, and i guess something with tech stocks because they got hit pretty hard too. reading some articles they are speculating the market had priced in deescalation with china leading up to the midterms.

    whoops.

    If true, that's hilarious.

    I really wonder how long it will take for those fucks in the business community to finally wise up and realize Trump doesn't give a shit and is gonna burn us all.

    I'd bet the other way on Trump not giving a shit. He ripped up NAFTA, but then created a new NAFTA which was nearly the same thing as before, with just a different name. He could declare the trade war a victory whenever he wants.

  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Central OhioRegistered User regular
    theory- tax cuts may made investors feel better about how all this ends up than they should have

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  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    Well that's the problem isn't it?
    He's so fickle that the market cannot plan on whether he will or will not drop the tarriffs.
    All this can do is make the market as volatile as he is, and drop the market as people pull their money and try to protect their savings in something more stable.

  • MartyMarty Registered User regular
    The market experiences a drop of 10% for no discernable reason about once a year on average. I think you all are reading too much into this.

  • DedwrekkaDedwrekka Metal Hell adjacentRegistered User regular
    NotYou wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Knight_ wrote: »
    dow got torched today.

    lot of uncertainty over the interest rates, and i guess something with tech stocks because they got hit pretty hard too. reading some articles they are speculating the market had priced in deescalation with china leading up to the midterms.

    whoops.

    If true, that's hilarious.

    I really wonder how long it will take for those fucks in the business community to finally wise up and realize Trump doesn't give a shit and is gonna burn us all.

    I'd bet the other way on Trump not giving a shit. He ripped up NAFTA, but then created a new NAFTA which was nearly the same thing as before, with just a different name. He could declare the trade war a victory whenever he wants.

    Whoo yeah, victory! We made the yuan drop in price again....wait. Dammit!

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Marty81 wrote: »
    The market experiences a drop of 10% for no discernable reason about once a year on average. I think you all are reading too much into this.

    Things are basically a bit below the January peak from the tax cut law. Essentially the year has just been a long meh, and the next few months will continue to be meh.

  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    what is going on with the DOW

  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    what is going on with the DOW

    On Bloomberg for the last 24 hours everyone has been treating the words "Trade War" like saying "He
    who should not be named."

    RedTide#1907 on Battle.net
    Come Overwatch with meeeee
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