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The revival of [The Economy] (thread) and the potential for its coming collapse
As a bonus, on page 28, 1 page after discussing how being so socialist and mean has been hurting the poor Norwegians so much, they immediately embark on a nonsensical tangent to prove that Nordic countries ARENT as socialist as the US already is due to their unfair taxation policies...
"As shown in table 2, the corporate income tax rate in the Nordic countries ranges from 20 to 23
percent, which was about half the U.S. Federal and State statutory rate until 2018."
"With lower thresholds for their income tax brackets, the Nordic economies apply
their highest marginal tax rate to taxpayers earning only marginally above-average income,
meaning that low- and middle-income tax filers face substantially higher average rates in the
Nordic countries than in the United States."
Shockingly, the writer has failed to realize that if you take a 10% tax from everyone, and then give everyone free healthcare you have created a massively progressive government payments structure. And forgotten that US corporations only actually pay like 10% tax.
As a bonus, on page 28, 1 page after discussing how being so socialist and mean has been hurting the poor Norwegians so much, they immediately embark on a nonsensical tangent to prove that Nordic countries ARENT as socialist as the US already is due to their unfair taxation policies...
"As shown in table 2, the corporate income tax rate in the Nordic countries ranges from 20 to 23
percent, which was about half the U.S. Federal and State statutory rate until 2018."
"With lower thresholds for their income tax brackets, the Nordic economies apply
their highest marginal tax rate to taxpayers earning only marginally above-average income,
meaning that low- and middle-income tax filers face substantially higher average rates in the
Nordic countries than in the United States."
Shockingly, the writer has failed to realize that if you take a 10% tax from everyone, and then give everyone free healthcare you have created a massively progressive government payments structure. And forgotten that US corporations only actually pay like 10% tax.
Its a load of crap anyway
no one paid the top rate in the US.
I know, but its just such an obviously done load of crap, but also so boring, and also so marginal and light in its criticisms even with all the bias.
The market will bump up after the election simply due to reassurance and stability of knowing somebody won. What happens after that who knows. I agree with what's to be expected for 2019 on the political landscape, the markets are going to be swingy. Already crazy volatile right now as it is.
It's cute that you guys are using facts to debunk this obviously faked document. The targets of the document don't care about facts.
At a glance, it appears to spend 20 pages shitting on farm subsidies (?), 20 pages explaining that Nordic countries aren't socialist, actually(??), then like a page each saying that, regardless, we couldn't afford to do what those not-socialists do, and our healthcare is better anyway!
Holy shit all the indexes have pretty much wiped all gains since january. That probably doesn't inspire the most comfort in investors.
And, again, this is with run of the mill stuff happening to spook people that maybe we've peaked.
Now basically remove the UK's GDP from existence in March and...
So ... is this Trump's trade nonsense catching up with us? Or just a correction due to overoptimism about the economy coming out of Obama's term/Trump's election/corporate tax cuts driving stock buybacks?
I'm also puzzled that US inflation isn't up given that the tariffs should be increasing consumer costs, and we're hearing reports about companies in various sectors having to raise prices/shut down production due to the tariffs strangling them. But maybe that just hasn't kicked in yet.
Basically, Trump's put so many damn economic balls in the air, I'm not sure which ones are going up and which ones are coming down.
More and more I'm coming to the conclusion of "so much money is in the hands of so few that expecting the stock market to behave by anything resembling logic as opposed to the whims of the people who own that money is pointless."
More and more I'm coming to the conclusion of "so much money is in the hands of so few that expecting the stock market to behave by anything resembling logic as opposed to the whims of the people who own that money is pointless."
It should be doing super well in the run up to the election though then.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
More and more I'm coming to the conclusion of "so much money is in the hands of so few that expecting the stock market to behave by anything resembling logic as opposed to the whims of the people who own that money is pointless."
It should be doing super well in the run up to the election though then.
They already got their tax break. Deregulation is a lock for two years.
The only outcomes of this election for the oligarchy are:
-Blue wave results in a slightly less friendly legislature still beholden to Wall Street
-Status quo
Meanwhile Trump's instability regarding trade policy, hostility towards the Fed, and volatility in foreign relations have the investor class nervous that the currently favorable conditions are likely to be upset by something extremely stupid happening.
More and more I'm coming to the conclusion of "so much money is in the hands of so few that expecting the stock market to behave by anything resembling logic as opposed to the whims of the people who own that money is pointless."
It should be doing super well in the run up to the election though then.
They already got their tax break. Deregulation is a lock for two years.
More and more I'm coming to the conclusion of "so much money is in the hands of so few that expecting the stock market to behave by anything resembling logic as opposed to the whims of the people who own that money is pointless."
It should be doing super well in the run up to the election though then.
They already got their tax break. Deregulation is a lock for two years.
They've had one, yes. But what about eleven%ies?
Well you need to have something left to cut so you can secure next fiscal year's bonus
0
FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
More and more I'm coming to the conclusion of "so much money is in the hands of so few that expecting the stock market to behave by anything resembling logic as opposed to the whims of the people who own that money is pointless."
That's generally been the stock market since.... Hamilton?
So, am I hearing this right? Trump is now saying that there's another tax cut on the way, this one for the middle class, any day now right after the election, honest, pinky-swear... but only if you vote to keep the Pubs in power, so they can bring it to you.
(Actual chances of this happening, either way, are 0.00%, of course.)
So, outright attempted bribery/vote-buying.
So, am I hearing this right? Trump is now saying that there's another tax cut on the way, this one for the middle class, any day now right after the election, honest, pinky-swear... but only if you vote to keep the Pubs in power, so they can bring it to you.
(Actual chances of this happening, either way, are 0.00%, of course.)
So, outright attempted bribery/vote-buying.
At first I think he was saying that Congressional Republicans we're working on it before the election. Despite being in Recess.
+7
AegisFear My DanceOvershot Toronto, Landed in OttawaRegistered Userregular
So, I'm not there's a soybean export market to China left anymore. From Senator Heidi Heitkamp:
Blue & Green are average/previous year export trends and how they tend to be each month (ie- right now is when the bulk of the exports happen). Red is current exports. As you can see, there may as well be no red line at all. As she notes, exports are down 97% to China this year and are virtually nonexistent at the time of year when most of the exporting happens.
There's a farm bureau article going into much more depth about the whole market, and while there's been an increase in exports to non-China countries of soybeans by 99 million bushels, that doesn't make up for the 248 million-bushel decline (of which China makes up 231 million bushels).
Blue & Green are average/previous year export trends and how they tend to be each month (ie- right now is when the bulk of the exports happen). Red is current exports. As you can see, there may as well be no red line at all. As she notes, exports are down 97% to China this year and are virtually nonexistent at the time of year when most of the exporting happens.
There's a farm bureau article going into much more depth about the whole market, and while there's been an increase in exports to non-China countries of soybeans by 99 million bushels, that doesn't make up for the 248 million-bushel decline (of which China makes up 231 million bushels).
The fun thing about agriculture is that you can't just retool in the middle of the growing season and change up your crops. Once the seeds are bought and buried that's what you're harvesting. It's not like they could have responded to Trump's tariffs even if they wanted to.
Also, they eventually go bad. Even in a silo.
+24
AthenorBattle Hardened OptimistThe Skies of HiigaraRegistered Userregular
Isn't the farm bill supposed to help with some of that? Though.. I've not heard positive news about that, so.
He/Him | "We who believe in freedom cannot rest." - Dr. Johnetta Cole, 7/22/2024
It sounds like Trump is probably going to use one of the executive branch options to just give a ton of money to the affected farmers. For irony points there are chinese companies that will be eligible for that money due to their large farms they own in the US.
Isn't the farm bill supposed to help with some of that? Though.. I've not heard positive news about that, so.
Probably. This year. Whose to say the old buyer's are going to come back in ~three years now that they altered all their logistics setup to get Brazilian soybean?
It sounds like Trump is probably going to use one of the executive branch options to just give a ton of money to the affected farmers. For irony points there are chinese companies that will be eligible for that money due to their large farms they own in the US.
If it follows true to form, a bunch of large GOP donors will get checks while everyone else goes bankrupt and still vote for Trump next time anyway.
Isn't the farm bill supposed to help with some of that? Though.. I've not heard positive news about that, so.
Probably. This year. Whose to say the old buyer's are going to come back in ~three years now that they altered all their logistics setup to get Brazilian soybean?
Eh, they would come back if we removed the Tariffs. The US is just a great place to grow soybeans and we subsidize them like mad. Noone else can compete on price.
Probably most of the 100 million tonnes we ARE selling are just third parties buying them and reselling to china from their own markets. Meeting internal demand with our beans, and Chinese demand with theirs.
Isn't the farm bill supposed to help with some of that? Though.. I've not heard positive news about that, so.
From what I am seeing, to get the relief package a commodity farmer would have to be selling their product when/if the market price hits a certain threshold. For soybeans, that market target is $8.40 per bushel. Today it’s close but not quite there:
So, they are currently losing about $2 per bushel because of the tariff effect but it’s not quite to the threshold to trigger the help. Which exceeds the amount they would get. Apparently a bushel of soybeans costs about $10 per bushel to produce and they were expecting to sell around $10.50 per bushel and the relief only gets them to break even basically currently.
Isn't the farm bill supposed to help with some of that? Though.. I've not heard positive news about that, so.
Probably. This year. Whose to say the old buyer's are going to come back in ~three years now that they altered all their logistics setup to get Brazilian soybean?
Eh, they would come back if we removed the Tariffs. The US is just a great place to grow soybeans and we subsidize them like mad. Noone else can compete on price.
Probably most of the 100 million tonnes we ARE selling are just third parties buying them and reselling to china from their own markets. Meeting internal demand with our beans, and Chinese demand with theirs.
Nope! The cost of changing and creating the new supply chain will prohibit switching back. China will be buying Brazilian soybeans for quite some time it seems.
Isn't the farm bill supposed to help with some of that? Though.. I've not heard positive news about that, so.
Probably. This year. Whose to say the old buyer's are going to come back in ~three years now that they altered all their logistics setup to get Brazilian soybean?
Eh, they would come back if we removed the Tariffs. The US is just a great place to grow soybeans and we subsidize them like mad. Noone else can compete on price.
Probably most of the 100 million tonnes we ARE selling are just third parties buying them and reselling to china from their own markets. Meeting internal demand with our beans, and Chinese demand with theirs.
Nope! The cost of changing and creating the new supply chain will prohibit switching back. China will be buying Brazilian soybeans for quite some time it seems.
Yeah. It's not remotely as simple as just driving to another store and buying soybeans there. At least five other companies need to be involved: Chinese shipping, Pacific shipping, Brazilian shipping, Brazilian port, and Chinese port. We're talking about canceling contracts, writing up new ones, arranging production cycles and shipping times, arranging new import/export permits, working with customs officials, etc.. And the marginal costs of any screw-up in transition are likely significant enough to offset any price differential.
Isn't the farm bill supposed to help with some of that? Though.. I've not heard positive news about that, so.
Probably. This year. Whose to say the old buyer's are going to come back in ~three years now that they altered all their logistics setup to get Brazilian soybean?
Eh, they would come back if we removed the Tariffs. The US is just a great place to grow soybeans and we subsidize them like mad. Noone else can compete on price.
Probably most of the 100 million tonnes we ARE selling are just third parties buying them and reselling to china from their own markets. Meeting internal demand with our beans, and Chinese demand with theirs.
Nope! The cost of changing and creating the new supply chain will prohibit switching back. China will be buying Brazilian soybeans for quite some time it seems.
Yeah. It's not remotely as simple as just driving to another store and buying soybeans there. At least five other companies need to be involved: Chinese shipping, Pacific shipping, Brazilian shipping, Brazilian port, and Chinese port. We're talking about canceling contracts, writing up new ones, arranging production cycles and shipping times, arranging new import/export permits, working with customs officials, etc.. And the marginal costs of any screw-up in transition are likely significant enough to offset any price differential.
More then that, one of the golden rules of being in the business of selling shit to people is that if your customers leave, they don't come back without a reason. They won't come back just cause they can. You have to give them a reason to switch back.
The US will have to offer real incentive to get Chinese buyers to return.
Isn't the farm bill supposed to help with some of that? Though.. I've not heard positive news about that, so.
Probably. This year. Whose to say the old buyer's are going to come back in ~three years now that they altered all their logistics setup to get Brazilian soybean?
Eh, they would come back if we removed the Tariffs. The US is just a great place to grow soybeans and we subsidize them like mad. Noone else can compete on price.
Probably most of the 100 million tonnes we ARE selling are just third parties buying them and reselling to china from their own markets. Meeting internal demand with our beans, and Chinese demand with theirs.
Nope! The cost of changing and creating the new supply chain will prohibit switching back. China will be buying Brazilian soybeans for quite some time it seems.
Yeah. It's not remotely as simple as just driving to another store and buying soybeans there. At least five other companies need to be involved: Chinese shipping, Pacific shipping, Brazilian shipping, Brazilian port, and Chinese port. We're talking about canceling contracts, writing up new ones, arranging production cycles and shipping times, arranging new import/export permits, working with customs officials, etc.. And the marginal costs of any screw-up in transition are likely significant enough to offset any price differential.
More then that, one of the golden rules of being in the business of selling shit to people is that if your customers leave, they don't come back without a reason. They won't come back just cause they can. You have to give them a reason to switch back.
The US will have to offer real incentive to get Chinese buyers to return.
Without the tariffs US soybeans were cheaper and that will probably continue. The real issue here is that Soybeans are usually purchased with futures contracts. The volatile tariff situation really fucks with them as it'd be easy to lock in a profitable price for next years soybeans only for an unexpected tariff to wipe out your profit margins. Until the risk of rapid unexpected tariffs is reduced anybody will be wondering what their final price will actually be.
I'm facing a similar situation with molds and our lead times are only 2-3 months between order and shipment/customs payments. Canada is slightly more expensive but very attractive because NAFTA can't be unilaterally ended so offers price stability.
I mean, there will be some return. The question is more a matter of why would they come back 100% to previous levels after having to go through all the hassle twice. Especially when diversified sources reduces this kind of political risk. It's not like Trump is sui generis in China bashing. It's going to be a semi-permanent scarring of the agricultural sector, for no benefit. And while Congress can help them out for a time, that isn't as useful or reliable as just actually selling the shit like you were before.
moniker on
+3
ButtersA glass of some milksRegistered Userregular
edited October 2018
S&P 500 is officially below where it was on January 1 and I am officially scared for 2019.
Most of this is just instablity concerns due to the elections. If Democrats win strongly and send a strong, "Tariffs are done" signal, then the markets will go up. If Republicans win a little bit, they will go up a little bit. If Republicans win a LOT then they will fall.
Posts
Its a load of crap anyway
no one paid the top rate in the US.
I know, but its just such an obviously done load of crap, but also so boring, and also so marginal and light in its criticisms even with all the bias.
That doesn't seem great heading into all the stupid shit that's going to happen in 2019.
How long until Trump starts blaming Obama and liberals for sabotaging the economy?
Well, this probably mean I'll be able to afford a non-shit house sometime in the future. Assuming I still have a job.
At a glance, it appears to spend 20 pages shitting on farm subsidies (?), 20 pages explaining that Nordic countries aren't socialist, actually(??), then like a page each saying that, regardless, we couldn't afford to do what those not-socialists do, and our healthcare is better anyway!
Huge shocker, trade wars not easy to win.
And they said they will retaliate.
And we said we're going to retaliate to their retaliation, again.
Forever and ever and ever because sure.
In which the tariff-loving President tries to claim that there are no such tariffs.
(Dale is the Washington correspondent for the Toronto Star)
And, again, this is with run of the mill stuff happening to spook people that maybe we've peaked.
Now basically remove the UK's GDP from existence in March and...
So ... is this Trump's trade nonsense catching up with us? Or just a correction due to overoptimism about the economy coming out of Obama's term/Trump's election/corporate tax cuts driving stock buybacks?
I'm also puzzled that US inflation isn't up given that the tariffs should be increasing consumer costs, and we're hearing reports about companies in various sectors having to raise prices/shut down production due to the tariffs strangling them. But maybe that just hasn't kicked in yet.
Basically, Trump's put so many damn economic balls in the air, I'm not sure which ones are going up and which ones are coming down.
It should be doing super well in the run up to the election though then.
They already got their tax break. Deregulation is a lock for two years.
The only outcomes of this election for the oligarchy are:
-Blue wave results in a slightly less friendly legislature still beholden to Wall Street
-Status quo
Meanwhile Trump's instability regarding trade policy, hostility towards the Fed, and volatility in foreign relations have the investor class nervous that the currently favorable conditions are likely to be upset by something extremely stupid happening.
...more extremely stupid than usual anyway.
They've had one, yes. But what about eleven%ies?
Well you need to have something left to cut so you can secure next fiscal year's bonus
That's generally been the stock market since.... Hamilton?
(Actual chances of this happening, either way, are 0.00%, of course.)
So, outright attempted bribery/vote-buying.
At first I think he was saying that Congressional Republicans we're working on it before the election. Despite being in Recess.
Blue & Green are average/previous year export trends and how they tend to be each month (ie- right now is when the bulk of the exports happen). Red is current exports. As you can see, there may as well be no red line at all. As she notes, exports are down 97% to China this year and are virtually nonexistent at the time of year when most of the exporting happens.
There's a farm bureau article going into much more depth about the whole market, and while there's been an increase in exports to non-China countries of soybeans by 99 million bushels, that doesn't make up for the 248 million-bushel decline (of which China makes up 231 million bushels).
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The fun thing about agriculture is that you can't just retool in the middle of the growing season and change up your crops. Once the seeds are bought and buried that's what you're harvesting. It's not like they could have responded to Trump's tariffs even if they wanted to.
Also, they eventually go bad. Even in a silo.
Probably. This year. Whose to say the old buyer's are going to come back in ~three years now that they altered all their logistics setup to get Brazilian soybean?
If it follows true to form, a bunch of large GOP donors will get checks while everyone else goes bankrupt and still vote for Trump next time anyway.
Eh, they would come back if we removed the Tariffs. The US is just a great place to grow soybeans and we subsidize them like mad. Noone else can compete on price.
Probably most of the 100 million tonnes we ARE selling are just third parties buying them and reselling to china from their own markets. Meeting internal demand with our beans, and Chinese demand with theirs.
From what I am seeing, to get the relief package a commodity farmer would have to be selling their product when/if the market price hits a certain threshold. For soybeans, that market target is $8.40 per bushel. Today it’s close but not quite there:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/soybeans-price
So, they are currently losing about $2 per bushel because of the tariff effect but it’s not quite to the threshold to trigger the help. Which exceeds the amount they would get. Apparently a bushel of soybeans costs about $10 per bushel to produce and they were expecting to sell around $10.50 per bushel and the relief only gets them to break even basically currently.
Nope! The cost of changing and creating the new supply chain will prohibit switching back. China will be buying Brazilian soybeans for quite some time it seems.
Yeah. It's not remotely as simple as just driving to another store and buying soybeans there. At least five other companies need to be involved: Chinese shipping, Pacific shipping, Brazilian shipping, Brazilian port, and Chinese port. We're talking about canceling contracts, writing up new ones, arranging production cycles and shipping times, arranging new import/export permits, working with customs officials, etc.. And the marginal costs of any screw-up in transition are likely significant enough to offset any price differential.
More then that, one of the golden rules of being in the business of selling shit to people is that if your customers leave, they don't come back without a reason. They won't come back just cause they can. You have to give them a reason to switch back.
The US will have to offer real incentive to get Chinese buyers to return.
Without the tariffs US soybeans were cheaper and that will probably continue. The real issue here is that Soybeans are usually purchased with futures contracts. The volatile tariff situation really fucks with them as it'd be easy to lock in a profitable price for next years soybeans only for an unexpected tariff to wipe out your profit margins. Until the risk of rapid unexpected tariffs is reduced anybody will be wondering what their final price will actually be.
I'm facing a similar situation with molds and our lead times are only 2-3 months between order and shipment/customs payments. Canada is slightly more expensive but very attractive because NAFTA can't be unilaterally ended so offers price stability.
I mean we've got 2 months to not be negative for the year, and we are still positive from november of 2017 i think.
I think "technically not negative for the year" is generally a bad thing, isn't it?
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