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The revival of [The Economy] (thread) and the potential for its coming collapse

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. normal (not weird)Registered User regular
    I think that mostly boils down to C-level culture being nihilistic, self-centered, and short sighted which ummm hmmm.

    Lampert is just openly and self-awarely Objectivist.

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  • CogCog What'd you expect? Registered User regular
    So It Goes wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    Sleep wrote: »
    Jesus, fuck, the indexes were all trying to recover today and that shit fuckin annihilated the gains from today and put us further in the hole.

    Looks like we'll close negative for the calendar year today.

    welllll I guess I won't be paying taxes on any capital gains this year!

    argh

    On the positive side, my retirement fund is totally eating shit!

    Am I doing this right? It doesn't feel like I'm doing this right.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    I have friends who work(ed) Sears Corporate. There was a big shift when he came in, and it wasn't just typical corporate bad ideas/bad management sucking up to a new boss. Not to treat every individual case as sui generis or make excuses for trees in the forest (like Toys R Us being destroyed by leveraged buyout firms rather than anything inherent to it's retail approach) but Sears is kind of unique there, so I wouldn't take too broad a lesson from it.

  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    Cog wrote: »
    So It Goes wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    Sleep wrote: »
    Jesus, fuck, the indexes were all trying to recover today and that shit fuckin annihilated the gains from today and put us further in the hole.

    Looks like we'll close negative for the calendar year today.

    welllll I guess I won't be paying taxes on any capital gains this year!

    argh

    On the positive side, my retirement fund is totally eating shit!

    Am I doing this right? It doesn't feel like I'm doing this right.

    Eh shares of whatever funds you are invested in will become cheaper and thus you will buy more of them per paycheck and hopefully realize larger gains down the line.

    The market eating shit is really largely a problem for those close to retirement and looking to liquidate stocks in the short term.

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  • hippofanthippofant ティンク Registered User regular
    So It Goes wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    Sleep wrote: »
    Jesus, fuck, the indexes were all trying to recover today and that shit fuckin annihilated the gains from today and put us further in the hole.

    Looks like we'll close negative for the calendar year today.

    welllll I guess I won't be paying taxes on any capital gains this year!

    argh

    Silly SiG. Real capitalists never pay any capital gains tax.

  • LanzLanz ...Za?Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Sears died because their CEO was an Objectivist who literally tried to run the company according to the tenets of Ayn Rand.

    He's also been selling off the various sub-brands Sears owns to... himself...

    to pay off debts that Sears owes... to his firm...

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  • SealSeal Registered User regular
    Lanz wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Sears died because their CEO was an Objectivist who literally tried to run the company according to the tenets of Ayn Rand.

    He's also been selling off the various sub-brands Sears owns to... himself...

    to pay off debts that Sears owes... to his firm...
    pretty objectivist of him

  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    Lanz wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Sears died because their CEO was an Objectivist who literally tried to run the company according to the tenets of Ayn Rand.

    He's also been selling off the various sub-brands Sears owns to... himself...

    to pay off debts that Sears owes... to his firm...

    Wait...like he sold off Craftsman to Stanley for cash to pay towards his own debt? Can you cite this?

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  • vsovevsove ....also yes. Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    My company just gave me a bunch of stock in lieu of a pay increase that I'm overdue on.

    So, you know, I'm not -thrilled- about the markets going into the shitter. And I do not see Trump or Xi backing down, Trump because he's too dumb to know better, Xi because he can weather the storm.

    vsove on
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  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    Much to my own surprise, Best Buy has improved their experience so much that I now prefer them over Amazon for electronics. And this is coming from someone who’s been an active Amazon shopper since ‘99, has Prime, and over $200 in monthly recurring Subscribe & Safe.

    But with Best Buy, I don’t have to worry about fake stuff (huge problem on Amazon because of how they mingle inventory). I can make returns in store. The rewards program is decent. And I if I’m trying it out in person, I’ll buy it then and there even if it’s a few bucks more.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    Lanz wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Sears died because their CEO was an Objectivist who literally tried to run the company according to the tenets of Ayn Rand.

    He's also been selling off the various sub-brands Sears owns to... himself...

    to pay off debts that Sears owes... to his firm...

    Wait...like he sold off Craftsman to Stanley for cash to pay towards his own debt? Can you cite this?

    His separate, Hedge Fund has given loans to Sears Holding and the proposed restructuring would benefit that Hedge Fund for completely innocent reasons.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-27/lampert-s-sears-plan-would-hand-lampert-s-hedge-fund-1-billion

    And yes. He was going to sell himself Kenmore.

    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/08/17/sears-stock-falls-to-record-low-as-ceos-hedge-fund-eyes-kenmore.html

    Not sure if that actually happened before the bankruptcy filing.

  • Marty81Marty81 Registered User regular
    enc0re wrote: »
    Much to my own surprise, Best Buy has improved their experience so much that I now prefer them over Amazon for electronics. And this is coming from someone who’s been an active Amazon shopper since ‘99, has Prime, and over $200 in monthly recurring Subscribe & Safe.

    But with Best Buy, I don’t have to worry about fake stuff (huge problem on Amazon because of how they mingle inventory). I can make returns in store. The rewards program is decent. And I if I’m trying it out in person, I’ll buy it then and there even if it’s a few bucks more.

    What fake stuff on Amazon?

  • LanzLanz ...Za?Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Butters wrote: »
    Lanz wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Sears died because their CEO was an Objectivist who literally tried to run the company according to the tenets of Ayn Rand.

    He's also been selling off the various sub-brands Sears owns to... himself...

    to pay off debts that Sears owes... to his firm...

    Wait...like he sold off Craftsman to Stanley for cash to pay towards his own debt? Can you cite this?

    His separate, Hedge Fund has given loans to Sears Holding and the proposed restructuring would benefit that Hedge Fund for completely innocent reasons.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-27/lampert-s-sears-plan-would-hand-lampert-s-hedge-fund-1-billion

    And yes. He was going to sell himself Kenmore.

    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/08/17/sears-stock-falls-to-record-low-as-ceos-hedge-fund-eyes-kenmore.html

    Not sure if that actually happened before the bankruptcy filing.

    more on it:
    In 2015, Lampert split off 235 of Sears’s most profitable stores and 31 other Sears real-estate holdings, selling it to a publicly traded real-estate investment trust (REIT) called Seritage Growth Properties for $2.7 billion. The sale/leaseback deal, common in private equity, has Sears paying Seritage rent on the use of the Sears facilities it once owned. Lampert’s hedge fund owns 43.5 percent of the Seritage limited partnership; he serves as its chairman.

    Since 2015, Sears has paid $349 million to Seritage in rent, as well as installment expenses like insurance, property taxes, and utilities, according to its 2017 annual report, along with another $45 million in termination payments from shuttered stores (and as CEO, Lampert made the decisions on what stores to shutter). Moreover, when Sears does terminate leases with Seritage, the REIT is free to negotiate alternative development on the properties. As of September, Seritage has announced 94 redevelopment projects totaling $1.4 billion in investment, with “targeted incremental returns of approximately 11 percent,” according to a Seritage press release.

    It wasn’t only real estate that Lampert signed over to himself. In 2014, Sears sold Land’s End, a clothing brand, to a consortium that was two-thirds controlled by ESL. Today, the brand has a rough market value of $314 million. In 2016, Sears sold Craftsman brand tools to Black & Decker for $900 million. The profits were used to pay off debt, including to Lampert. In 2017, Die Hard batteries were put up for sale. And this year, Lampert has made a $400 million bid for Kenmore appliances, the crown jewel of what remains at Sears, along with an $80 million bid for Sears Home Improvement stores.

    So the leadership of the Sears empire—Lampert—is gradually selling off bits and pieces of it, mostly to Lampert. The cash generated from those deals in large part serviced Sears’s debt, the payments on which also went to Lampert. And now, having put Sears into bankruptcy, the top creditor—Lampert—stands to gain from the final fire sale.

    Sears stockholders have already won a $40 million settlement over this style of self-dealing, claiming that the Seritage deal spun off the company’s assets at a bargain-basement price. But $40 million is a pittance of the total cash that Lampert has extracted. It’s hard to put a full number on it, but between the $200 million annual debt service, the $394 million in rent to Seritage, and the $314 million Land’s End stake, you could say conservatively that anywhere between $900 million and $1.5 billion have been ferreted out. And in bankruptcy, another $1.5 billion to $2 billion could be on the way. None of this, by the way, includes Lampert’s personal management fees from ESL Investments.
    http://prospect.org/article/how-sears-was-gutted-its-own-ceo

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  • HedgethornHedgethorn Associate Professor of Historical Hobby Horses In the Lions' DenRegistered User regular
    Marty81 wrote: »
    enc0re wrote: »
    Much to my own surprise, Best Buy has improved their experience so much that I now prefer them over Amazon for electronics. And this is coming from someone who’s been an active Amazon shopper since ‘99, has Prime, and over $200 in monthly recurring Subscribe & Safe.

    But with Best Buy, I don’t have to worry about fake stuff (huge problem on Amazon because of how they mingle inventory). I can make returns in store. The rewards program is decent. And I if I’m trying it out in person, I’ll buy it then and there even if it’s a few bucks more.

    What fake stuff on Amazon?

    Amazon is flooded with counterfeit goods in some categories. My own experience is primarily with SD cards, lithium-ion batteries, and board games, but I'm sure others have other examples ready at hand. Whether the counterfeits are entirely or mostly limited to third-party sellers is a huge matter of dispute: there are certainly plenty of claims on BoardGameGeek's forums of people who bought games sold by Amazon themselves and still received knock-off copies.

  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    Marty81 wrote: »
    enc0re wrote: »
    Much to my own surprise, Best Buy has improved their experience so much that I now prefer them over Amazon for electronics. And this is coming from someone who’s been an active Amazon shopper since ‘99, has Prime, and over $200 in monthly recurring Subscribe & Safe.

    But with Best Buy, I don’t have to worry about fake stuff (huge problem on Amazon because of how they mingle inventory). I can make returns in store. The rewards program is decent. And I if I’m trying it out in person, I’ll buy it then and there even if it’s a few bucks more.

    What fake stuff on Amazon?

    Loooooots of fake reviews and stuff on Amazon

    I won't buy anything expensive unless there's a decent standalone site too

  • Mortal SkyMortal Sky queer punk hedge witchRegistered User regular
    At this point between the counterfeit goods, poor selection of goods in most hobbies I like, terrible ethics, and a whole host of other reasons, I've been Amazon-free for about two years now and honestly my life hasn't changed at all for it

  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    Sears isn't a harbinger of things to come. They made terrible decisions for decades and should have gone under a long time ago. That they survived so long with terrible management is more a testament to how huge they once were. The retail apocalypse already occurred in 2001 and 2008 respectively, and we are seeing the folks who didn't learn the rules of the current marketplace run out of momentum from their previous business models. Plenty of folks are succeeding in the current eCommerce driven market.

    Agree with most of the rest, though. Especially the bonds and housing concerns.

    Your dismissal of the industry that employs more people than any other is too glib by half. Millions of retail employees are still going to be left out of jobs after warehouse workers are delivery drivers are hired to convert more and more spending to ecommerce; and then all those people are going to be automated out of their jobs. But that's another thread.

    Retraining isn't a scalable solution either. There are already more skilled workers than positions in a lot of high value industries. See my point about stagnant wages despite low unemployment. There's not enough room in our economy to absorb millions of people losing jobs in one sector into other industries; there's already not enough room to negotiate for a raise.

    You are putting a lot of words in my mouth that I don't believe and didn't say, my dude.

  • djmitchelladjmitchella Registered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    Marty81 wrote: »
    enc0re wrote: »
    Much to my own surprise, Best Buy has improved their experience so much that I now prefer them over Amazon for electronics. And this is coming from someone who’s been an active Amazon shopper since ‘99, has Prime, and over $200 in monthly recurring Subscribe & Safe.

    But with Best Buy, I don’t have to worry about fake stuff (huge problem on Amazon because of how they mingle inventory). I can make returns in store. The rewards program is decent. And I if I’m trying it out in person, I’ll buy it then and there even if it’s a few bucks more.

    What fake stuff on Amazon?

    Loooooots of fake reviews and stuff on Amazon

    I won't buy anything expensive unless there's a decent standalone site too

    Reply All has an episode about this here.

    There's also completely fake sellers on Amazon, where they don't actually exist other than as a way to take money and hope people don't bother getting refunded. (I hit this buying something from a seller that had just showed up a couple of days earlier, which was a rookie move, I guess -- I got my money back because Amazon is good for that, but every single other review of that seller was "never sent my stuff". Any seller that's just shown up very recently is potentially not real like this).

  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    I ALWAYS make sure stuff i buy on Amazon says provided by amazon. If its sold by someone else I inherently do not trust it. Electronics and stuff are really bad for this stuff.

    Apple actually sued Amazon while back because up to 90% of the iPhone chargers sold there were fakes

  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    enc0re wrote: »
    Much to my own surprise, Best Buy has improved their experience so much that I now prefer them over Amazon for electronics. And this is coming from someone who’s been an active Amazon shopper since ‘99, has Prime, and over $200 in monthly recurring Subscribe & Safe.

    But with Best Buy, I don’t have to worry about fake stuff (huge problem on Amazon because of how they mingle inventory). I can make returns in store. The rewards program is decent. And I if I’m trying it out in person, I’ll buy it then and there even if it’s a few bucks more.

    Yup some stuff like TV's and monitors it is nice having a place you can actually go and directly see them. And bestbuy has good local service options and the price is about the same so it generally just makes sense to go to them for things like TV/appliances and what not.

  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    kaid wrote: »
    enc0re wrote: »
    Much to my own surprise, Best Buy has improved their experience so much that I now prefer them over Amazon for electronics. And this is coming from someone who’s been an active Amazon shopper since ‘99, has Prime, and over $200 in monthly recurring Subscribe & Safe.

    But with Best Buy, I don’t have to worry about fake stuff (huge problem on Amazon because of how they mingle inventory). I can make returns in store. The rewards program is decent. And I if I’m trying it out in person, I’ll buy it then and there even if it’s a few bucks more.

    Yup some stuff like TV's and monitors it is nice having a place you can actually go and directly see them. And bestbuy has good local service options and the price is about the same so it generally just makes sense to go to them for things like TV/appliances and what not.

    Plus not fussing with shipping for smaller things. When something breaks and you need a replacement the same day, or something.

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  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    I ALWAYS make sure stuff i buy on Amazon says provided by amazon. If its sold by someone else I inherently do not trust it. Electronics and stuff are really bad for this stuff.

    Apple actually sued Amazon while back because up to 90% of the iPhone chargers sold there were fakes

    even then it's not foolproof (but it is easier to get your money back)

  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    Plenty of "fulfilled by Amazon" products are counterfeits.

  • SimpsoniaSimpsonia Registered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    Marty81 wrote: »
    enc0re wrote: »
    Much to my own surprise, Best Buy has improved their experience so much that I now prefer them over Amazon for electronics. And this is coming from someone who’s been an active Amazon shopper since ‘99, has Prime, and over $200 in monthly recurring Subscribe & Safe.

    But with Best Buy, I don’t have to worry about fake stuff (huge problem on Amazon because of how they mingle inventory). I can make returns in store. The rewards program is decent. And I if I’m trying it out in person, I’ll buy it then and there even if it’s a few bucks more.

    What fake stuff on Amazon?

    Loooooots of fake reviews and stuff on Amazon

    I won't buy anything expensive unless there's a decent standalone site too

    This is why if I'm buying anything on Amazon from a company I don't already know, I always use Fakespot to see if the reviews are all crap.

  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    Simpsonia wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    Marty81 wrote: »
    enc0re wrote: »
    Much to my own surprise, Best Buy has improved their experience so much that I now prefer them over Amazon for electronics. And this is coming from someone who’s been an active Amazon shopper since ‘99, has Prime, and over $200 in monthly recurring Subscribe & Safe.

    But with Best Buy, I don’t have to worry about fake stuff (huge problem on Amazon because of how they mingle inventory). I can make returns in store. The rewards program is decent. And I if I’m trying it out in person, I’ll buy it then and there even if it’s a few bucks more.

    What fake stuff on Amazon?

    Loooooots of fake reviews and stuff on Amazon

    I won't buy anything expensive unless there's a decent standalone site too

    This is why if I'm buying anything on Amazon from a company I don't already know, I always use Fakespot to see if the reviews are all crap.

    never heard of it!

  • Gabriel_PittGabriel_Pitt Stepped in it Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    Plenty of "fulfilled by Amazon" products are counterfeits.

    Because all that 'fullfilled by Amazon' means is that it ships from an Amazon warehouse instead of direct from the seller and that stock is... provided by seller.

  • silence1186silence1186 Character shields down! As a wingmanRegistered User regular
    I have a thread queued for when we hit 100, which will probably happen today.

  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    I have a thread queued for when we hit 100, which will probably happen today.

    the posting market is very volatile and we could well see a 15 to 20 percent decrease in posts by 2pm est!

  • silence1186silence1186 Character shields down! As a wingmanRegistered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    I have a thread queued for when we hit 100, which will probably happen today.

    the posting market is very volatile and we could well see a 15 to 20 percent decrease in posts by 2pm est!

    But Mr. Trump could easily tweet out something that causes a 500% spike, so now is certainly not the time to hedge.

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  • doomybeardoomybear Hi People Registered User regular
    No, I think it's 500% spike in forum posts

    what a happy day it is
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    People, we can't make short term posting predictions based on limited information. We just need to post and hold, never edit!

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    General Electric is under such financial stress that new CEO Larry Culp is slashing the troubled conglomerate's 119-year-old dividend to just a penny a share.

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/30/investing/ge-dividend-cut-earnings-culp/index.html

    That seems ominous.

  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Central OhioRegistered User regular
    Whoa

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  • PeccaviPeccavi Registered User regular
    GE's been struggling for a while, though. It was removed from the DOW earlier this year.

  • HefflingHeffling No Pic EverRegistered User regular
    Peccavi wrote: »
    GE's been struggling for a while, though. It was removed from the DOW earlier this year.

    Jeff Immelt tried to grow GE post 2008 through acquisitions and spent tens of billions buying companies in both Oil and Gas markets and Power markets. He bet big on both oil rising above $70 a barrel and continued global expansion of coal power plants, and lost so badly that he was ousted last year for John Flannery. John did such a bad job that he was barely in the role for a year before also being ousted.

    GE last year merged their Oil and Gas division with Baker Hughes to form Baker Hughes, a GE Company. They are in the process of spinning off this division, along with the usual loading up of debt and extraction of cash. GE Capital is still suffering from their losses in The Great Depression.

    I work for GE and can tell you it's not getting any better any time soon. The bought the company I worked for and then built a new $100MM+ facility to consolidate four of the products into a single factory mostly to break up the unions, and the loss of talent and drive to low pay has been killing all four of the products. The turnover is incredibly high and is driven from the top down, with executives averaging 1.5 years in a position. There's no consistent direction other than "make more money" which is more dream than plan.

This discussion has been closed.