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## Posts

I can give 10 resources and a troop to the princess, enough for her to crash into Ice boy. But we need him to have less troops because he does the princess 11 damages, one less for every troop we kill or wound we give the character. Gato Will suffer at least 4 wounds attacking ice boy (5 dices against 9 strength) , so he'll need all the healing he can get. If you want you can send me all your troops and move free next turn, I'll send them back to you when you need them. I'll probably have to move to @Phyphor location next turn and he will have to move north. You or @Phyphor have to send a troop and resources to Zyne.

Excluding Donia, no one can send support cards (Or I would have sent some, I have good ones to send...). Daemonis is by himself and need at least 2 attacks and some luck/good support cards to win aganist Dorgas...

Steam - NotoriusBEN | Uplay - notoriusben | Xbox,Windows Live - ThatBEN

Also, I think Gato needs to be topped off, as he seems to be our most effective fighter at the moment.

I can attack Necro again, but will need resources to be able to do it (6 for troops, 1 for hex space, 3 more if I want to add more dice, which I do).

Also @MrBody what's the ruling on ally ability? It says "During Battle" so does that mean I could roll my normal dice, and then decide to roll 4 extra after seeing results? Or do I need to roll it all together?

Once all enemies have acted and all battles have been

resolved, the round ends. If this was the last (10th) round,

proceed to game end, below. Otherwise, pass the princess

character card, her military power, and her

tokens one player to the left. That player becomes the starting player for

the next round

I've always been doing you have to declare before.

@elvenshae then

draw a cardfirst. @MrBodySteam: Elvenshae // PSN: Elvenshae // WotC: Elvenshae

The Disappearance of Inigo Sharpe: Tomas à Dunsanin

Help from the Merchants(Receive 5 Resources) to heal me up to 7 Health.I hit on a 4+, miss on a 3, and take damage on a 1 or a 2. I roll 5 dice, +1 for Marianne, -1 for Ice Lord, vs. 9 combat strength.

Wish me luck, y'all.

Geth, roll 5d6t4 for MELT SOME ICE!

MELT SOME ICE!:5d6t42[5d6t4=4, 1, 1, 1, 6]Steam: Elvenshae // PSN: Elvenshae // WotC: Elvenshae

The Disappearance of Inigo Sharpe: Tomas à Dunsanin

I assign the hits to 2 troops, reducing Ice Lord's troop count to 4.

4 uncovered combat power + 3 crit misses = 7 damage = my health total.

I assume I can't discard my other card mid-damage-assignment to not die?

Steam: Elvenshae // PSN: Elvenshae // WotC: Elvenshae

The Disappearance of Inigo Sharpe: Tomas à Dunsanin

Steam - NotoriusBEN | Uplay - notoriusben | Xbox,Windows Live - ThatBEN

Gather 3R twice

Send 1 soldier, 10R to preda

@Daemonis

Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame

Spoiled for MATH!

Here's the math approach: My main concern is not dying, so each can be classed as one of two results: a safe roll (simple miss or hit) or a dangerous roll (crit miss). The odds for any given die is 2/3 safe (3,4,5,6) and 1/3 dangerous (1,2). I am taking 4 points of unavoidable damage, which means I have 3 hit points I "care about." Therefore, any result on my dice roll that has 3 or more dangerous results kills me, and, plainly, I survive anything else.

There are 6^5 ways to roll 5 independent 6-sided dice. Except, as noted above, my dice aren't 6-sided; they're 2-sided, with uneven odds. (:P) So, in reality, there are 2^5 ways to roll my dice that I care about, or 32 total ways to roll. Some of those results are deadly, and some are safe. How many deadly results are there? Well, it's every set where there are 3 or more dangerous rolls - 3 dangerous 2 safe, 4 dangerous 1 safe, and 5 dangerous 0 safe. How many of those are there?

That's just the choose function (x choose y; like 5 choose 3), which tells you how many unique ways you can pick y elements out of x possibilities. So, dice 1, 3, and 5 being dangerous is one set; 1,2,3 is another, etc. The formula is actually pretty simple:

X choose Y = (X! / (Y! * (X - Y)!)

So, in my case:

5 choose 3 = 5! / (3! * (5-3)!) = 5! / (3! * 2!) = 120 / (6 * 2) = 120 / 12 = 10

So, there are 10 results where I roll exactly 3 dangerous results.

But, I also care about the times I roll 4 or 5 dangerous results ...5 choose 4 = 5! / (4! * (5-4)!) = 5! / (4! * 1!) = 120 / (24 * 1) = 120 / 24 = 5 [Intuitively, there are exactly 5 ways to pick 4 items from a basket of 5 items, because you're also picking which 1 you leave behind; so 5 options]

5 choose 5 = 5! / (5! * (5-5)!) = 5! / (5! * 0!) = 120 / (24 * 1) = 120 / 120 = 1 [Intuitively, there is only 1 way to pick 5 items from a basket of 5 items.]

So, the total number deadly results in the pool is 10 + 5 + 1 =

16.Now, does this make sense? After you think about it, it does, because you can look at it from both directions. With fair coins (remember that I've reduced my 6-sided dice to 2-sided coins for simplicity's sake), the number of times you flip 1 heads and 4 tails should, theoretically, be balanced out by the number of times you flip 4 heads and 1 tails, over a large number of trials. When looking at the "split down the middle" portion - 2 heads 3 tails, 3 heads 2 tails - they'll balance against each other. So, yeah - it being 50 / 50 makes.

So, the roll's actually a 50 / 50 chance of dying, right, and therefore way more dangerous than I assumed at first, right?

Well, not so much, because my dice aren't even. Safe results are more likely than dangerous results - my coins aren't fair; in fact, they're 2x as likely to land heads than tails (and get me thrown out of Vegas). So, how do we figure out the real odds of dying?

Well, the odds of any particular flip of 5 coins happening is:

Odds for flip 1 * Odds for flip 2 * Odds for flip 3 * Odds for flip 4 * Odds for flip 5

So, with fair coins, the odds of going heads-heads-tails-heads-tails is:

50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% = 0.03125, or ~3%

Similarly, the odds of going heads-tails-heads-heads-heads is:

50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% = 0.03125, or ~3%

... which is obviously the same answer, because we're using fair coins. So, what if the odds weren't the same, as they are in our case? The odds for going safe-safe-safe-safe-safe are:

66% * 66% * 66% * 66% * 66% = 0.1317, or ~13%

... and the odds of going dangerous-dangerous-dangerous-dangerous-dangerous are:

33% * 33% * 33% * 33% * 33% = 0.0041, or ~0.4%

... and the odds of going safe-dangerous-dangerous-dangerous-safe are:

66% * 33% * 33% * 33% * 66% = 0.0165, or ~1.6%

The trick, of course, is that since this is multiplication, you can rearrange the terms in any order (a * b * c = c * a * b), so not only is the chance of s-d-d-d-s = ~1.6%, but the chances of

anyexactly-3-dangerous-result is ~1.6%(66% * 66% * 33% * 33% * 33%) = (66% * 33% * 66% * 33% * 33%) = (33% * 33% * 33% * 66% * 66%) = etc.

More generally, the odds on any given coin flip sequence happening is:

Probability of result A^(Number of A results) * Probability of result B^(Number of B results)

So, all of my 4- and 5-dangerous-result rolls have an individual chance of happening of:

Prob(Safe)^1 * Prob(Dangerous)^4 = 0.0082 = 0.8%

Prob(Safe)^0 * Prob(Dangerous)^5 = 0.0041 = 0.4%

Then, we know from earlier how many of each of those chains there are:

10 3-dangerous results => 10 * ~1.6% = ~16.5%

5 4-dangerous results => 5 * ~0.8% = ~4.1%

1 5-dangerous result => 1 * ~0.4% = ~0.4%

Total chance of death: 21%So, in reality, my actual chance of death was pretty close to 1-in-5. Which is pretty high, when there are so few of us on the board. If I had spent my other card on healing (I was reluctant to for reasons, not least being it's worth 2 healing and I was only down 1 HP and I know I was gong to need it after the fight), the odds drop pretty astronomically, because now only 4- and 5-dangerous rolls kills me:

Total chance of death: ~4.5%1 extra HP drops my chance of dying by ~80%, which is crazy. So,

maybeI should have done that, instead of just attacking first.The other problem, of course, is that I don't think any other character was going to be able to take that kind of hit, either. They might have been able to come up with a few more attack dice, though? By piling on some soldiers?

Anyway, MATH!

ElvenshaeonSteam: Elvenshae // PSN: Elvenshae // WotC: Elvenshae

The Disappearance of Inigo Sharpe: Tomas à Dunsanin

Steam: Elvenshae // PSN: Elvenshae // WotC: Elvenshae

The Disappearance of Inigo Sharpe: Tomas à Dunsanin

Steam - NotoriusBEN | Uplay - notoriusben | Xbox,Windows Live - ThatBEN

1. Gather resources (10)2. Attack SW (4)

Geth roll 5d6 for attack

attack:5d624[5d6=4, 3, 6, 6, 5]Steam - NotoriusBEN | Uplay - notoriusben | Xbox,Windows Live - ThatBEN

Well, I'm going to take risk and try to survive his attack.

3. Send a card to Zyne@Preda

(next event via Donia scouting)

Ancestral Weapon: At the end of the round, all kingdom units on the area on which the princess started the round suffer 5 health damage each.

I plan to move in the forest under phypor and send zyne his needed last soldier+ resources. But if we plan to stall the princess instead, I'll wait here and get more resources for later...

We make her crash on the ice lord (losing all troops and getting 3 wounds) this turn or the next one?

meanwhile I play my support card:

Will of Steel- Gain 2 actions@Daemonis @Phyphor @NotoriusBEN @Elvenshae @AustinP0027

PhyphoronAcademician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame

Send the princess into Iceboi, ill heal and start working towards chancellor

Steam - NotoriusBEN | Uplay - notoriusben | Xbox,Windows Live - ThatBEN

OK, Than

-Gain resources (+5 resources);-Gain Resources (+5 resources);

-Recruit 2 soldiers;

-Send Cornelia 1 soldier and 6 resources (I'm left with 3 soldiers and 28 res, princess has 5 soldiers and 10 res Getting to ice guy will cost her 10 so we're ok) FREE ACTION

-Send Godfried 2 soldiers and 14 res (I'm left with 1 soldier and 14 res, Godfried has 5 sold and 23 res and can evenutally send them back to me before moving )FREE ACTION

-Move NO on the road (-1 resources);

-Move NO in the forest (-2 res, 11 left);

-Send Zyne 1 soldier and 10 resources I'm left with 1 resource (to move on town next turn)FREE ACTION.

@AustinP0027

PredaonAcademician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame

With the resources I have, I'll get one attack, so hopefully this goes well.

I have 6 soldiers and 10 resources.

So Move N (-7 resources for 6 soldiers and 1 extra for tile)I'll pay 3 resources to get 4 extra dice.

Geth, roll 9d6t4 for Let's not screw this up, ok?

Let's not screw this up, ok?:9d6t44[9d6t4=3, 3, 2, 3, 6, 6, 4, 6, 3]AustinP0027onAssign 1 to Ravinith to kill her.

Assign 3 to kill soldiers.

Assign a miss to the other soldier.

Ravinith is dead, only one soldier left on that spot.

play a support cardMaster's Armor- ongoing: Gain 1 die when defending.

Then I'll:

Collect Resources

Collect Resources

End turn still at 5/6 health, 6 soldiers, and now 2 resources

@NotoriusBEN for next

Steam - NotoriusBEN | Uplay - notoriusben | Xbox,Windows Live - ThatBEN