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PbF Unicornus Knights - Are you a bad enough dude to escort the princess?

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Posts

  • PredaPreda Registered User regular
    First of all, wasn't Godfried first the last turn? first player should rotate @MrBody ?
    I can give 10 resources and a troop to the princess, enough for her to crash into Ice boy. But we need him to have less troops because he does the princess 11 damages, one less for every troop we kill or wound we give the character. Gato Will suffer at least 4 wounds attacking ice boy (5 dices against 9 strength) , so he'll need all the healing he can get. If you want you can send me all your troops and move free next turn, I'll send them back to you when you need them. I'll probably have to move to @Phyphor location next turn and he will have to move north. You or @Phyphor have to send a troop and resources to Zyne.
    Excluding Donia, no one can send support cards (Or I would have sent some, I have good ones to send...). Daemonis is by himself and need at least 2 attacks and some luck/good support cards to win aganist Dorgas...

  • NotoriusBENNotoriusBEN Registered User regular
    Wish first player did rotate, ive been first every turn.

    notoriusben_zpsa205e831.png
    Steam - NotoriusBEN | Uplay - notoriusben | Xbox,Windows Live - ThatBEN
  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 Registered User regular
    Yeah, we haven't rotated at all. I don't see anything in the rules about rotating starting order (but not sure).

    Also, I think Gato needs to be topped off, as he seems to be our most effective fighter at the moment.

    I can attack Necro again, but will need resources to be able to do it (6 for troops, 1 for hex space, 3 more if I want to add more dice, which I do).

    Also @MrBody what's the ruling on ally ability? It says "During Battle" so does that mean I could roll my normal dice, and then decide to roll 4 extra after seeing results? Or do I need to roll it all together?

  • PredaPreda Registered User regular
    6. End of Round
    Once all enemies have acted and all battles have been
    resolved, the round ends. If this was the last (10th) round,
    proceed to game end, below. Otherwise, pass the princess
    character card, her military power, and her
    tokens one player to the left. That player becomes the starting player for
    the next round

    Auralynx
  • MrBodyMrBody Registered User regular
    Also @MrBody what's the ruling on ally ability? It says "During Battle" so does that mean I could roll my normal dice, and then decide to roll 4 extra after seeing results? Or do I need to roll it all together?

    I've always been doing you have to declare before.

  • MrBodyMrBody Registered User regular
    Ah, I've been playing 2 player the whole time, where you each control 2 heroes and just choose the order.

    @elvenshae then

  • ElvenshaeElvenshae Registered User regular
    Oh! ... Uh ... I'm at 5/ 8 for Health and taking 4 guaranteed damage if I attack the Ice Dude (5 attack dice vs 9 combat strength [6 troops + 3 leader]), so I'll draw a card first. @MrBody

    omgbfz5lzi1s.png
    Steam: Elvenshae // PSN: Elvenshae // WotC: Elvenshae
    The Disappearance of Inigo Sharpe: Tomas à Dunsanin
  • ElvenshaeElvenshae Registered User regular
    I draw and then discard Help from the Merchants (Receive 5 Resources) to heal me up to 7 Health.

    I hit on a 4+, miss on a 3, and take damage on a 1 or a 2. I roll 5 dice, +1 for Marianne, -1 for Ice Lord, vs. 9 combat strength.

    Wish me luck, y'all.

    Geth, roll 5d6t4 for MELT SOME ICE!

    MELT SOME ICE!:
    5d6t4 2 [5d6t4=4, 1, 1, 1, 6]

    omgbfz5lzi1s.png
    Steam: Elvenshae // PSN: Elvenshae // WotC: Elvenshae
    The Disappearance of Inigo Sharpe: Tomas à Dunsanin
  • MrBodyMrBody Registered User regular
    Cool As Ice 8-)

  • ElvenshaeElvenshae Registered User regular
    Well, that was rough.

    I assign the hits to 2 troops, reducing Ice Lord's troop count to 4.

    4 uncovered combat power + 3 crit misses = 7 damage = my health total.

    I assume I can't discard my other card mid-damage-assignment to not die?

    omgbfz5lzi1s.png
    Steam: Elvenshae // PSN: Elvenshae // WotC: Elvenshae
    The Disappearance of Inigo Sharpe: Tomas à Dunsanin
  • MrBodyMrBody Registered User regular
    Unfortunately, no. Death is immediate and the ability is to restore 2 life, not prevent 2 damage. :(

  • NotoriusBENNotoriusBEN Registered User regular
    Oh shit....

    notoriusben_zpsa205e831.png
    Steam - NotoriusBEN | Uplay - notoriusben | Xbox,Windows Live - ThatBEN
    Preda
  • MrBodyMrBody Registered User regular
    @phyphor then

  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Recruit a soldier and 5R for free
    Gather 3R twice
    Send 1 soldier, 10R to preda

    @Daemonis

    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
  • DaemonisDaemonis Registered User regular
    @MrBody for card

  • ElvenshaeElvenshae Registered User regular
    edited June 11
    Okay, so I eyeballed this on my turn ("I'd need a pretty below-average roll to actually die here"), which I think is in-the-spirit of playing a game together, but I maybe would have benefited from actually running the math ..

    Spoiled for MATH!
    Here's the eyeball approach: So, basically, given that there is 4 unavoidable damage coming my way, and I've got 7 hit points left, the thing I need to worry about is rolling 3 points of self-damage on my attack roll of 5 dice. I self-damage on a roll of 1 or 2, miss on a 3, and hit on a 4-6. Given 5 rolls and 1/3 odds of getting a self-damage, I should roll something less than 2 points of damage on average. I need 3 points of self damage to die; 3 / (<2) ~= 1.5 - 2ish, which is a pretty big multiplier on needed results, so I'd need a roll pretty far out-of-norm to die. Go for it!

    Here's the math approach: My main concern is not dying, so each can be classed as one of two results: a safe roll (simple miss or hit) or a dangerous roll (crit miss). The odds for any given die is 2/3 safe (3,4,5,6) and 1/3 dangerous (1,2). I am taking 4 points of unavoidable damage, which means I have 3 hit points I "care about." Therefore, any result on my dice roll that has 3 or more dangerous results kills me, and, plainly, I survive anything else.

    There are 6^5 ways to roll 5 independent 6-sided dice. Except, as noted above, my dice aren't 6-sided; they're 2-sided, with uneven odds. (:P) So, in reality, there are 2^5 ways to roll my dice that I care about, or 32 total ways to roll. Some of those results are deadly, and some are safe. How many deadly results are there? Well, it's every set where there are 3 or more dangerous rolls - 3 dangerous 2 safe, 4 dangerous 1 safe, and 5 dangerous 0 safe. How many of those are there?

    That's just the choose function (x choose y; like 5 choose 3), which tells you how many unique ways you can pick y elements out of x possibilities. So, dice 1, 3, and 5 being dangerous is one set; 1,2,3 is another, etc. The formula is actually pretty simple:

    X choose Y = (X! / (Y! * (X - Y)!)

    So, in my case:

    5 choose 3 = 5! / (3! * (5-3)!) = 5! / (3! * 2!) = 120 / (6 * 2) = 120 / 12 = 10

    So, there are 10 results where I roll exactly 3 dangerous results. But, I also care about the times I roll 4 or 5 dangerous results ...

    5 choose 4 = 5! / (4! * (5-4)!) = 5! / (4! * 1!) = 120 / (24 * 1) = 120 / 24 = 5 [Intuitively, there are exactly 5 ways to pick 4 items from a basket of 5 items, because you're also picking which 1 you leave behind; so 5 options]
    5 choose 5 = 5! / (5! * (5-5)!) = 5! / (5! * 0!) = 120 / (24 * 1) = 120 / 120 = 1 [Intuitively, there is only 1 way to pick 5 items from a basket of 5 items.]

    So, the total number deadly results in the pool is 10 + 5 + 1 = 16.

    Now, does this make sense? After you think about it, it does, because you can look at it from both directions. With fair coins (remember that I've reduced my 6-sided dice to 2-sided coins for simplicity's sake), the number of times you flip 1 heads and 4 tails should, theoretically, be balanced out by the number of times you flip 4 heads and 1 tails, over a large number of trials. When looking at the "split down the middle" portion - 2 heads 3 tails, 3 heads 2 tails - they'll balance against each other. So, yeah - it being 50 / 50 makes.

    So, the roll's actually a 50 / 50 chance of dying, right, and therefore way more dangerous than I assumed at first, right?

    Well, not so much, because my dice aren't even. Safe results are more likely than dangerous results - my coins aren't fair; in fact, they're 2x as likely to land heads than tails (and get me thrown out of Vegas). So, how do we figure out the real odds of dying?

    Well, the odds of any particular flip of 5 coins happening is:

    Odds for flip 1 * Odds for flip 2 * Odds for flip 3 * Odds for flip 4 * Odds for flip 5

    So, with fair coins, the odds of going heads-heads-tails-heads-tails is:

    50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% = 0.03125, or ~3%

    Similarly, the odds of going heads-tails-heads-heads-heads is:

    50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% = 0.03125, or ~3%

    ... which is obviously the same answer, because we're using fair coins. So, what if the odds weren't the same, as they are in our case? The odds for going safe-safe-safe-safe-safe are:

    66% * 66% * 66% * 66% * 66% = 0.1317, or ~13%

    ... and the odds of going dangerous-dangerous-dangerous-dangerous-dangerous are:

    33% * 33% * 33% * 33% * 33% = 0.0041, or ~0.4%

    ... and the odds of going safe-dangerous-dangerous-dangerous-safe are:

    66% * 33% * 33% * 33% * 66% = 0.0165, or ~1.6%

    The trick, of course, is that since this is multiplication, you can rearrange the terms in any order (a * b * c = c * a * b), so not only is the chance of s-d-d-d-s = ~1.6%, but the chances of any exactly-3-dangerous-result is ~1.6%

    (66% * 66% * 33% * 33% * 33%) = (66% * 33% * 66% * 33% * 33%) = (33% * 33% * 33% * 66% * 66%) = etc.

    More generally, the odds on any given coin flip sequence happening is:

    Probability of result A^(Number of A results) * Probability of result B^(Number of B results)

    So, all of my 4- and 5-dangerous-result rolls have an individual chance of happening of:

    Prob(Safe)^1 * Prob(Dangerous)^4 = 0.0082 = 0.8%
    Prob(Safe)^0 * Prob(Dangerous)^5 = 0.0041 = 0.4%

    Then, we know from earlier how many of each of those chains there are:

    10 3-dangerous results => 10 * ~1.6% = ~16.5%
    5 4-dangerous results => 5 * ~0.8% = ~4.1%
    1 5-dangerous result => 1 * ~0.4% = ~0.4%

    Total chance of death: 21%

    So, in reality, my actual chance of death was pretty close to 1-in-5. Which is pretty high, when there are so few of us on the board. If I had spent my other card on healing (I was reluctant to for reasons, not least being it's worth 2 healing and I was only down 1 HP and I know I was gong to need it after the fight), the odds drop pretty astronomically, because now only 4- and 5-dangerous rolls kills me:

    Total chance of death: ~4.5%

    1 extra HP drops my chance of dying by ~80%, which is crazy. So, maybe I should have done that, instead of just attacking first.

    The other problem, of course, is that I don't think any other character was going to be able to take that kind of hit, either. They might have been able to come up with a few more attack dice, though? By piling on some soldiers?

    Anyway, MATH!

    Elvenshae on
    omgbfz5lzi1s.png
    Steam: Elvenshae // PSN: Elvenshae // WotC: Elvenshae
    The Disappearance of Inigo Sharpe: Tomas à Dunsanin
  • ElvenshaeElvenshae Registered User regular
    Sorry for killing the thread? :D

    omgbfz5lzi1s.png
    Steam: Elvenshae // PSN: Elvenshae // WotC: Elvenshae
    The Disappearance of Inigo Sharpe: Tomas à Dunsanin
  • NotoriusBENNotoriusBEN Registered User regular
    No, we need @mrbody to give a support card

    notoriusben_zpsa205e831.png
    Steam - NotoriusBEN | Uplay - notoriusben | Xbox,Windows Live - ThatBEN
    PredaElvenshae
  • DaemonisDaemonis Registered User regular
    1. Gather resources (10)
    2. Attack SW (4)

    Geth roll 5d6 for attack

    attack:
    5d6 24 [5d6=4, 3, 6, 6, 5]

  • DaemonisDaemonis Registered User regular
    Mmm... does damage to enemy heroes accumulated or I have to deal 5 damage at once?

  • NotoriusBENNotoriusBEN Registered User regular
    Accumulated

    notoriusben_zpsa205e831.png
    Steam - NotoriusBEN | Uplay - notoriusben | Xbox,Windows Live - ThatBEN
    Elvenshae
  • DaemonisDaemonis Registered User regular
    So.... no damage to me. His soldier is dead, he got 3 damage....
    Well, I'm going to take risk and try to survive his attack.
    3. Send a card to Zyne
    @Preda

  • PredaPreda Registered User regular
    Where do we plan to put the princess next turn? Because the empire will nuke us...

    (next event via Donia scouting)
    Ancestral Weapon: At the end of the round, all kingdom units on the area on which the princess started the round suffer 5 health damage each.

    I plan to move in the forest under phypor and send zyne his needed last soldier+ resources. But if we plan to stall the princess instead, I'll wait here and get more resources for later...
    We make her crash on the ice lord (losing all troops and getting 3 wounds) this turn or the next one?

    meanwhile I play my support card:
    Will of Steel- Gain 2 actions

    @Daemonis @Phyphor @NotoriusBEN @Elvenshae @AustinP0027

  • DaemonisDaemonis Registered User regular
    I think we should drop her on Ice lord.

  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    edited June 13
    We can't really stall that much more. We have 5 turns left and the princess still needs to move 8 spaces, which while theoretically possible in 3 turns is cutting it a bit close. If we smash her into the ice lord now we can send her troops and ben can heal her; we also don't need to move as much, just avoid a tile nobody is on

    Phyphor on
    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 Registered User regular
    Yeah I think sending to Ice Lord now is a good idea. I worry about any more stalling, in the case that we run into bad rolls or bad Fate cards.

    NotoriusBEN
  • DaemonisDaemonis Registered User regular
    Someone has to go after Chancellor, do not forget.

    ElvenshaeNotoriusBEN
  • NotoriusBENNotoriusBEN Registered User regular
    Its looking like ill be hitting chancellor since Gato is KIA...

    Send the princess into Iceboi, ill heal and start working towards chancellor

    notoriusben_zpsa205e831.png
    Steam - NotoriusBEN | Uplay - notoriusben | Xbox,Windows Live - ThatBEN
    Elvenshae
  • PredaPreda Registered User regular
    edited June 13
    It will be better to have @Elvenshae recruit a fighting character on ice boy home and move him on the forest next to chancellor city, to defend aganist the troops before attacking the chancellor in 2 turns
    OK, Than
    -Gain resources (+5 resources);
    -Gain Resources (+5 resources);
    -Recruit 2 soldiers;
    -Send Cornelia 1 soldier and 6 resources (I'm left with 3 soldiers and 28 res, princess has 5 soldiers and 10 res Getting to ice guy will cost her 10 so we're ok) FREE ACTION
    -Send Godfried 2 soldiers and 14 res (I'm left with 1 soldier and 14 res, Godfried has 5 sold and 23 res and can evenutally send them back to me before moving )FREE ACTION
    -Move NO on the road (-1 resources);
    -Move NO in the forest (-2 res, 11 left);
    -Send Zyne 1 soldier and 10 resources I'm left with 1 resource (to move on town next turn)FREE ACTION.


    @AustinP0027

    Preda on
  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    So elvenshae can respawn where he is, or on marianne's space and go for the chancellor if that makes more sense

    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 Registered User regular
    I'm waiting to see what the card is that Daemonis sent before I take action.

    With the resources I have, I'll get one attack, so hopefully this goes well.

  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 Registered User regular
    edited June 13
    Ok, resource limitations mean that I just need to see what happens and go from there.

    I have 6 soldiers and 10 resources.

    So Move N (-7 resources for 6 soldiers and 1 extra for tile)
    I'll pay 3 resources to get 4 extra dice.


    Geth, roll 9d6t4 for Let's not screw this up, ok?

    Let's not screw this up, ok?:
    9d6t4 4 [9d6t4=3, 3, 2, 3, 6, 6, 4, 6, 3]

    AustinP0027 on
  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 Registered User regular
    4 hits against them, no hits against me.

    Assign 1 to Ravinith to kill her.
    Assign 3 to kill soldiers.
    Assign a miss to the other soldier.

    Ravinith is dead, only one soldier left on that spot.

  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 Registered User regular
    I'll play a support card
    Master's Armor- ongoing: Gain 1 die when defending.

    Then I'll:
    Collect Resources
    Collect Resources

    End turn still at 5/6 health, 6 soldiers, and now 2 resources

    @NotoriusBEN for next

    Elvenshae
  • MrBodyMrBody Registered User regular
    Did I...never draw a fate for Ravinith???

    Preda
  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Nope, zyne doesn't care about fate, he just smashes!

    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
    Preda
  • NotoriusBENNotoriusBEN Registered User regular
    :winky:

    notoriusben_zpsa205e831.png
    Steam - NotoriusBEN | Uplay - notoriusben | Xbox,Windows Live - ThatBEN
  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 Registered User regular
    Guess you could say I’m more of a “Mr Right Now”

    Elvenshae
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