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## Posts

fortyoncopSilly Dibby, that's a Hunter, not a Rogue! Clearly all the Rogues got their "sorry" emote back via Toki.

Legends of Runeterra: MNCdover #moc

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that's the first thing i could find on short notice

okay dadgodI'LL BE IN MY ROOM

*SLAMS DOOR*

Battle.net Tag: Dibby#1582

GET A HAIRCUT AND GET A REAL JOB!

Legends of Runeterra: MNCdover #moc

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Hearthstone . . .Pelican- Untappd: TheJudge_PDXDibby is pregnant with INANTP's child. But does TEG know about the affair? Later, Dover tries to explain to 3clipse why tide pods are not for eating.

Oh well, maybe I'll be able to hit legend. We'll see.

Legends of Runeterra: MNCdover #moc

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fortyonTook me 485 games, my longest legend yet, and I hit 1-5 over a dozen times. I blame the new matchmaking system for making me play against basically only legend players instead of other Rank 1/2 people.

No stats because I played 10 different decks over two and a half weeks so there's nothing to really glean from it.

Has Toki redeemed herself after her Witchwood monster hunt ?

I imagine that demographic has shifted with the rank floors. Those players are hitting legend earlier because they have to play way fewer games.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CompetitiveHS/comments/8sfgqo/matchmaking_issues/

I didn't know about that. That's dumb.

Just casual drop 4 stars to 4 Odd Paladins in a row. Each game they had 3-4 Level Up Recruits on curve. Meanwhile Spreading Plague and Ramp are taking a breather....MAN FUCK YOU GAME!Talk about taking the wind out of the climb to Legend. Ugh...

MNC DoveronLegends of Runeterra: MNCdover #moc

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If I treat them as permutation strings instead then I can replace each card with a variable and then check if the last term in the string is repeated an x number of times (in this case 2 or more) beforehand. The probability of each of those strings is also identical, so instead of needing 36n calculations I'll only need n calculations, which is light work that I could do in excel.

If I test an nth level string for repetitions I think I can also just straight build a distribution and find some measures of center that way. I'm not sure matlab can handle a 200 dimension matrix though.

Or you could monte carlo it.

Sic transit gloria mundi.WTF are you talking about? What did I tell you about doing high-level math on

the drugs!Legends of Runeterra: MNCdover #moc

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bwanieonThat's what I thought this said at first

Held on to Shaw until I could pull Call of the Wild. Picked up the fire-the-first-spell-twice treasure with Toki. And then I flipped to Tess.

"Cast CoW twice" as a hero power three turns out of four can flip a 70 to 15 health deficit around in a big hurry.

Pelican- Untappd: TheJudge_PDXNaturally the chain is broken by a Shudderwock Shaman. Sigh.

Legends of Runeterra: MNCdover #moc

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Except Toki gives me Elise. The Golden monkey gives me benedictus and now I'm ahead on fatigue, I have his deck so I can still do silly jaina things

anda bunch of random legendariesYeah, the Monte Carlo method is a way of evaluating integrals or expectation values by generating (pseudo)random events. It's incredibly useful for sampling higher dimensional parameter spaces such as that in the pack opening problem you described, and can be applied to a wide variety of problems.

You write the code for randomly determining the outcome of one event (or event chain), and then simulate a huge number of events. The statistics of these samples approximate the true distribution.

Super useful when you have more CPU power than statistics knowledge :P

Sic transit gloria mundi.Sometimes even with large statistical knowledge, when you have a large number of parameters it's just faster and more useful to build out a Monte Carlo simulation rather than calculate by hand. The simulation can also provide insight into other questions without requiring a complete redesign of the parameters your testing.

The other nice benefit is that errors are usually easier to spot. If you know the distribution should be Gaussian, anything else is an obvious coding mistake. Whereas when calculating by hand, you can wind up with an answer that you have no idea if it's right or not unless you calculate all of the permutation space and add up all the probabilities.That can take hours.

So under the assumption that you get exactly one rare per pack, most people will collect 80% of the rare pool around 75-80 packs.

On a mathematical note, this is an undeniably effective method but I dislike how 'hidden' most of the work is. Not directly working with an equation makes it more difficult to envision how altering variables impacts the final behavior. Like if the rare pool was 40 cards instead of 36 I'd have to resimulate all my samples instead of just seeing the effect of that variable on the equation.

Have you used math lab or any statistical libraries in python? That might help a bit on the efficiency side. I usually don't do these in excel and use other tools that are specially built to handle these types of calculations.

My brawl pack this week had an

Upgrade!It's nice to just be able to fuck around on this boss.

There was a new Wild report yesterday. Pretty much the same comments I made a couple weeks ago.