Indiana's the one reliably Republican part of the Great Lakes region though, so could a more liberal Democrat win statewide?
I dunno, Donnelly ran unopposed. My gut says probably not, but the flip is the last time someone seen as radically progressive even tried was Obama in 2008 for the presidential run, and he won but then lost in 2012 so maybe?
The biggest issue you get is only a couple of counties really vote democrat, the biggest being Indianapolis. Which is a huge city, but only is strongly democratic in the main part of the city, the suburbs tend to be split or lean republican, depending on where you are.
I just don't see it happening. I mean, I see the usual, very vocal folks who would love to see a progressive Dem run, but for the rest of the voters in the state? Ehhhh...
I feel that the only reason Donnelly has his seat is because of Richard "Yes, I am Aware That We're in the Middle of a General Election but, God Meant for Your Rape Baby to Happen" Mourdock. So Donnelly plays the "I'm a kinda conservative, mid-Western Hoosier, but I'll vote for a Dem for Majority Leader in the Senate" card.
Of course, if you don't give the more progressive candidate a shot at some point, you'll never know. Though, I would note that Liz Watson beat out Dan Canon in the IN-09 primary for the Dem side, and Dan was definitely the more progressive/left of those two candidates.
That's true. I'm just worried that, considering that midterms are heavily dependent on the base to turn out, Hoosier dems might look at Donnelly and going, "meh" and not voting.
Ain't really anything I can do about it though, and the flip is the dem base is overall, for the country, pretty motivated so that will help him.
Pressley/Capuano looks like the only competitive race in Massachusetts. She leads 54-46 with 42% reporting.
Pressley won fairly comfortably in the end in an upset. Capuano conceded early and about as well as could be expected. The Pod Save America people were pleased because for several of them Pressley was one of their first bosses as she was political director for Joe Kennedy II and John Kerry before she got elected to the Boston City Council about a decade ago.
Former Obama chief speech writer and Dep Chief of Staff respectively
Ideologically there's basically nothing between them (arguably she might be slightly to his right) but he's a 66 year old white man, she's a 44 year old black woman in a 2/3 non-white district. That's oversimplifying it but when ideology basically cancel out and the challenger has good experience, demographics can be a big factor. She is a black woman, and black women are increasingly exerting their power as the base of the Democratic party. She's 20 years his junior. And its a 2/3 non-white district.
I think what we are seeing with regards to Capuano is the democratic base being skeptical of having white guys representing them after 2016. He was fairly liberal and reliable vote for minority causes, but in the end I think the Dem base has been burned too many times by white guys going "I am very liberal on the campaign trail" and going centrist in Washington.
Capuano may not have deserved it(arguably), but if this signals an end to those guys in favor of candidates that are of/from/and part of the community that is a good thing. No more white saviors, if minorities and women are going to be helped, they are going to have to help themselves.
The sky was full of stars, every star an exploding ship. One of ours.
Pressley covers my district and I chatted to some of her doorknockers (after explaining I'm a foreigner, I'm not a monster), and they made an extremely good case. I'm glad she got up, even if there's little ideological difference it's a symbol of much needed momentum which hopefully will galvanise people for November.
Having largely avoided campaign activities since leaving office, Mr. Obama’s first public event of the midterm election will take place in Orange County, a traditionally conservative-leaning part of California where Republicans are at risk of losing several House seats. And Mr. Obama is expected to be joined by Democratic candidates from all seven of California’s Republican-held districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016.
Mr. Obama intends to campaign next Thursday in Cleveland for Richard Cordray, a former bank regulator in his administration who is the Democratic nominee for Ohio governor. Republicans have held total control of the state government since the 2010 election, and Mr. Obama helped encourage Mr. Cordray, also a former state attorney general, to seek the governorship.
Can't find the article, but apparently the thing working the most against Nunes isn't his Russia stuff, it's that the locals feel he's ignoring them because he hasn't had a town hall in like 10 years.
This was my implication. Ras' likely voter screen is... interesting. But it's also generally worth noting likely voter vs. registered voters. Given the enthusiasm gap, there might be an advantage for Democrats when that happens.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
In MA03, we won't know the real winner for a bit as 52 votes (0.03%) split Lori Trahan (a former Marty Meehan staffer) and Dan Koh (a former Marty Walsh Chief of Staff) in a crowded field. Provisionals and a few late absentee votes will come in and then there will likely be a recount.
I think what we are seeing with regards to Capuano is the democratic base being skeptical of having white guys representing them after 2016. He was fairly liberal and reliable vote for minority causes, but in the end I think the Dem base has been burned too many times by white guys going "I am very liberal on the campaign trail" and going centrist in Washington.
Capuano may not have deserved it(arguably), but if this signals an end to those guys in favor of candidates that are of/from/and part of the community that is a good thing. No more white saviors, if minorities and women are going to be helped, they are going to have to help themselves.
On his voting record I think he certainly didn't deserve it (there's a reason the CBC backed him), but that's not what it was about ultimately. And while black women are so underrepresented that's not entirely an unfair factor to take into account.
Taylor is hunkered down in the midst of a strange campaign scandal involving forged signatures on petitions to get a competing candidate into the race. Taylor has been subpoenaed to a court hearing Wednesday in Richmond to determine his role and whether that third candidate is improperly on the ballot, while a special prosecutor separately investigates possible campaign law violations.
As the deadline for qualifying for the ballot approached in June, Taylor’s campaign took the unusual step of gathering signatures for an independent competitor. Shaun Brown had been his Democratic opponent in 2016 — and he beat her by 22 points — but she was now under the cloud of a federal fraud investigation and had no party support to run again. So Taylor’s staffers mounted a last-minute push and turned in nearly 600 signatures for Brown, giving her more than the 1,000 needed to qualify.
Taylor’s help came to light in a local television report a month ago. Since then, questions have emerged about dozens of the signatures turned in by Taylor’s staff. Some belonged to dead people, many signed in similar handwriting. Even the name of local Republican Del. Glenn R. Davis Jr. was apparently forged, and his name misspelled.
Lindsey Terry, who has done tech work for the local Democratic committee, looked at the petition documents posted by WHRO and noticed something strange: One petition showed that her neighbor had signed, but the neighbor moved away several years ago.
When Terry posted on social media that she had found a forged signature, she said she got a phone call from Taylor.
“He seemed frantic,” Terry said. “He definitely was trying to intimidate me to take it down.” She said that while Taylor took the tone of a “good guy” just trying to help, he told her she could be sued and said someone had driven by her house to confirm her address.
In an exchange with Terry on Twitter, Taylor acknowledged speaking with her.
Terry and other local party activists identified more forged signatures. The Virginian-Pilot newspaper identified 59 fraudulent signatures, including those of four dead people, all on petitions gathered by Taylor staffers.
If you are going to get signatures for an independent candidate to act as a spoiler candidate, you probably shouldn't forge the signatures.
Taylor is hunkered down in the midst of a strange campaign scandal involving forged signatures on petitions to get a competing candidate into the race. Taylor has been subpoenaed to a court hearing Wednesday in Richmond to determine his role and whether that third candidate is improperly on the ballot, while a special prosecutor separately investigates possible campaign law violations.
As the deadline for qualifying for the ballot approached in June, Taylor’s campaign took the unusual step of gathering signatures for an independent competitor. Shaun Brown had been his Democratic opponent in 2016 — and he beat her by 22 points — but she was now under the cloud of a federal fraud investigation and had no party support to run again. So Taylor’s staffers mounted a last-minute push and turned in nearly 600 signatures for Brown, giving her more than the 1,000 needed to qualify.
Taylor’s help came to light in a local television report a month ago. Since then, questions have emerged about dozens of the signatures turned in by Taylor’s staff. Some belonged to dead people, many signed in similar handwriting. Even the name of local Republican Del. Glenn R. Davis Jr. was apparently forged, and his name misspelled.
Lindsey Terry, who has done tech work for the local Democratic committee, looked at the petition documents posted by WHRO and noticed something strange: One petition showed that her neighbor had signed, but the neighbor moved away several years ago.
When Terry posted on social media that she had found a forged signature, she said she got a phone call from Taylor.
“He seemed frantic,” Terry said. “He definitely was trying to intimidate me to take it down.” She said that while Taylor took the tone of a “good guy” just trying to help, he told her she could be sued and said someone had driven by her house to confirm her address.
In an exchange with Terry on Twitter, Taylor acknowledged speaking with her.
Terry and other local party activists identified more forged signatures. The Virginian-Pilot newspaper identified 59 fraudulent signatures, including those of four dead people, all on petitions gathered by Taylor staffers.
If you are going to get signatures for an independent candidate to act as a spoiler candidate, you probably shouldn't forge the signatures.
Taylor is hunkered down in the midst of a strange campaign scandal involving forged signatures on petitions to get a competing candidate into the race. Taylor has been subpoenaed to a court hearing Wednesday in Richmond to determine his role and whether that third candidate is improperly on the ballot, while a special prosecutor separately investigates possible campaign law violations.
As the deadline for qualifying for the ballot approached in June, Taylor’s campaign took the unusual step of gathering signatures for an independent competitor. Shaun Brown had been his Democratic opponent in 2016 — and he beat her by 22 points — but she was now under the cloud of a federal fraud investigation and had no party support to run again. So Taylor’s staffers mounted a last-minute push and turned in nearly 600 signatures for Brown, giving her more than the 1,000 needed to qualify.
Taylor’s help came to light in a local television report a month ago. Since then, questions have emerged about dozens of the signatures turned in by Taylor’s staff. Some belonged to dead people, many signed in similar handwriting. Even the name of local Republican Del. Glenn R. Davis Jr. was apparently forged, and his name misspelled.
Lindsey Terry, who has done tech work for the local Democratic committee, looked at the petition documents posted by WHRO and noticed something strange: One petition showed that her neighbor had signed, but the neighbor moved away several years ago.
When Terry posted on social media that she had found a forged signature, she said she got a phone call from Taylor.
“He seemed frantic,” Terry said. “He definitely was trying to intimidate me to take it down.” She said that while Taylor took the tone of a “good guy” just trying to help, he told her she could be sued and said someone had driven by her house to confirm her address.
In an exchange with Terry on Twitter, Taylor acknowledged speaking with her.
Terry and other local party activists identified more forged signatures. The Virginian-Pilot newspaper identified 59 fraudulent signatures, including those of four dead people, all on petitions gathered by Taylor staffers.
If you are going to get signatures for an independent candidate to act as a spoiler candidate, you probably shouldn't forge the signatures.
Shoulda struck the Republican who was perpetrating the fraud >_>
Don't worry, I'm sure we'll see the relevant law enforcement and regulatory bodies get right on investigating that.
After all, election integrity is a cornerstone of democracy.
I mean, it's not like voter ID and redistricting, and roll purges are there for partisan gain. They're there to serve the public trust, and make sure elections are the will of the people.
Taylor is hunkered down in the midst of a strange campaign scandal involving forged signatures on petitions to get a competing candidate into the race. Taylor has been subpoenaed to a court hearing Wednesday in Richmond to determine his role and whether that third candidate is improperly on the ballot, while a special prosecutor separately investigates possible campaign law violations.
As the deadline for qualifying for the ballot approached in June, Taylor’s campaign took the unusual step of gathering signatures for an independent competitor. Shaun Brown had been his Democratic opponent in 2016 — and he beat her by 22 points — but she was now under the cloud of a federal fraud investigation and had no party support to run again. So Taylor’s staffers mounted a last-minute push and turned in nearly 600 signatures for Brown, giving her more than the 1,000 needed to qualify.
Taylor’s help came to light in a local television report a month ago. Since then, questions have emerged about dozens of the signatures turned in by Taylor’s staff. Some belonged to dead people, many signed in similar handwriting. Even the name of local Republican Del. Glenn R. Davis Jr. was apparently forged, and his name misspelled.
Lindsey Terry, who has done tech work for the local Democratic committee, looked at the petition documents posted by WHRO and noticed something strange: One petition showed that her neighbor had signed, but the neighbor moved away several years ago.
When Terry posted on social media that she had found a forged signature, she said she got a phone call from Taylor.
“He seemed frantic,” Terry said. “He definitely was trying to intimidate me to take it down.” She said that while Taylor took the tone of a “good guy” just trying to help, he told her she could be sued and said someone had driven by her house to confirm her address.
In an exchange with Terry on Twitter, Taylor acknowledged speaking with her.
Terry and other local party activists identified more forged signatures. The Virginian-Pilot newspaper identified 59 fraudulent signatures, including those of four dead people, all on petitions gathered by Taylor staffers.
If you are going to get signatures for an independent candidate to act as a spoiler candidate, you probably shouldn't forge the signatures.
Shoulda struck the Republican who was perpetrating the fraud >_>
Don't worry, I'm sure we'll see the relevant law enforcement and regulatory bodies get right on investigating that.
After all, election integrity is a cornerstone of democracy.
I mean, it's not like voter ID and redistricting, and roll purges are there for partisan gain. They're there to serve the public trust, and make sure elections are the will of the people.
Right?
There is a criminal investigation going on over this currently.
Taylor is hunkered down in the midst of a strange campaign scandal involving forged signatures on petitions to get a competing candidate into the race. Taylor has been subpoenaed to a court hearing Wednesday in Richmond to determine his role and whether that third candidate is improperly on the ballot, while a special prosecutor separately investigates possible campaign law violations.
As the deadline for qualifying for the ballot approached in June, Taylor’s campaign took the unusual step of gathering signatures for an independent competitor. Shaun Brown had been his Democratic opponent in 2016 — and he beat her by 22 points — but she was now under the cloud of a federal fraud investigation and had no party support to run again. So Taylor’s staffers mounted a last-minute push and turned in nearly 600 signatures for Brown, giving her more than the 1,000 needed to qualify.
Taylor’s help came to light in a local television report a month ago. Since then, questions have emerged about dozens of the signatures turned in by Taylor’s staff. Some belonged to dead people, many signed in similar handwriting. Even the name of local Republican Del. Glenn R. Davis Jr. was apparently forged, and his name misspelled.
Lindsey Terry, who has done tech work for the local Democratic committee, looked at the petition documents posted by WHRO and noticed something strange: One petition showed that her neighbor had signed, but the neighbor moved away several years ago.
When Terry posted on social media that she had found a forged signature, she said she got a phone call from Taylor.
“He seemed frantic,” Terry said. “He definitely was trying to intimidate me to take it down.” She said that while Taylor took the tone of a “good guy” just trying to help, he told her she could be sued and said someone had driven by her house to confirm her address.
In an exchange with Terry on Twitter, Taylor acknowledged speaking with her.
Terry and other local party activists identified more forged signatures. The Virginian-Pilot newspaper identified 59 fraudulent signatures, including those of four dead people, all on petitions gathered by Taylor staffers.
If you are going to get signatures for an independent candidate to act as a spoiler candidate, you probably shouldn't forge the signatures.
Shoulda struck the Republican who was perpetrating the fraud >_>
Don't worry, I'm sure we'll see the relevant law enforcement and regulatory bodies get right on investigating that.
After all, election integrity is a cornerstone of democracy.
I mean, it's not like voter ID and redistricting, and roll purges are there for partisan gain. They're there to serve the public trust, and make sure elections are the will of the people.
Right?
There is a criminal investigation going on over this currently.
But will there be consequences? That's more the issue I have. And the one I'm most skeptical on.
But having an investigation is a good first step though.
Taylor is hunkered down in the midst of a strange campaign scandal involving forged signatures on petitions to get a competing candidate into the race. Taylor has been subpoenaed to a court hearing Wednesday in Richmond to determine his role and whether that third candidate is improperly on the ballot, while a special prosecutor separately investigates possible campaign law violations.
As the deadline for qualifying for the ballot approached in June, Taylor’s campaign took the unusual step of gathering signatures for an independent competitor. Shaun Brown had been his Democratic opponent in 2016 — and he beat her by 22 points — but she was now under the cloud of a federal fraud investigation and had no party support to run again. So Taylor’s staffers mounted a last-minute push and turned in nearly 600 signatures for Brown, giving her more than the 1,000 needed to qualify.
Taylor’s help came to light in a local television report a month ago. Since then, questions have emerged about dozens of the signatures turned in by Taylor’s staff. Some belonged to dead people, many signed in similar handwriting. Even the name of local Republican Del. Glenn R. Davis Jr. was apparently forged, and his name misspelled.
Lindsey Terry, who has done tech work for the local Democratic committee, looked at the petition documents posted by WHRO and noticed something strange: One petition showed that her neighbor had signed, but the neighbor moved away several years ago.
When Terry posted on social media that she had found a forged signature, she said she got a phone call from Taylor.
“He seemed frantic,” Terry said. “He definitely was trying to intimidate me to take it down.” She said that while Taylor took the tone of a “good guy” just trying to help, he told her she could be sued and said someone had driven by her house to confirm her address.
In an exchange with Terry on Twitter, Taylor acknowledged speaking with her.
Terry and other local party activists identified more forged signatures. The Virginian-Pilot newspaper identified 59 fraudulent signatures, including those of four dead people, all on petitions gathered by Taylor staffers.
If you are going to get signatures for an independent candidate to act as a spoiler candidate, you probably shouldn't forge the signatures.
Shoulda struck the Republican who was perpetrating the fraud >_>
Don't worry, I'm sure we'll see the relevant law enforcement and regulatory bodies get right on investigating that.
After all, election integrity is a cornerstone of democracy.
I mean, it's not like voter ID and redistricting, and roll purges are there for partisan gain. They're there to serve the public trust, and make sure elections are the will of the people.
Right?
There is a criminal investigation going on over this currently.
But will there be consequences? That's more the issue I have. And the one I'm most skeptical on.
But having an investigation is a good first step though.
Being negative and speculating on this further isn't going to be productive. We can reopen discussion when there's news about the investigation.
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Shortytouching the meatIntergalactic Cool CourtRegistered Userregular
There's a shot at Washington state's eighth district going blue with Kim Schrier. Unfortunately I'm not actually in state and can't volunteer but I donated to her campaign.
more on this: the district includes some slightly red areas like Bellevue and eastern King County, areas that tend to vote for Republicans in the state legislature but also vote for Democratic presidents, as well as some more-right, very agricultural and rural regions like Yakima
Kim Schrier's opponent is Dino Rossi, known idiot and perennial loser; he's tried to win several statewide elections in the past and has never succeeded. I believe his last effort was an attempt to unseat Patty Murray, in what turned out to be a fairly close race. several things are working against him in district 8, primarily 1) he's a smarmy car salesman, and that doesn't play well out there, and 2) he's a carpetbagger, who only moved to the district so he could run there. Kim Schrier has a tough fight ahead of her but she's lived in the area her whole life, and the fact that she works for a living (she is a doctor) should help her a lot.
e: iirc if you totaled up all the D votes and all the R votes in the primary, there were slightly more D votes; obviously that doesn't make it a sure thing, but it's a winnable race
I think what we are seeing with regards to Capuano is the democratic base being skeptical of having white guys representing them after 2016. He was fairly liberal and reliable vote for minority causes, but in the end I think the Dem base has been burned too many times by white guys going "I am very liberal on the campaign trail" and going centrist in Washington.
Capuano may not have deserved it(arguably), but if this signals an end to those guys in favor of candidates that are of/from/and part of the community that is a good thing. No more white saviors, if minorities and women are going to be helped, they are going to have to help themselves.
I don't like this line of thinking. It's pointlessly exclusionary. Womens rights and minority rights cost men and white people NOTHING. In fact, womens rights help men. And minority rights help white people. Racism is bad for everyone in a society who is not absurdly rich, because society is an interconnected network which grows stronger as each node (person) grows stronger. Locking up minorities, leaving them poorly educated, and then blaming them for their own problems SEEMS to help white people, but I am 100% certain that if we had a control society where noone had ever thought of racism then EVERYONE would be better off. White privilege/the patriarchy just hurts men less than it does women and minorities. It doesn't actually make their lives better.
In todays world, Laura Sanchez is forced to work as a cleaner while Peter Adams got the help he needed to become a Doctor. In a better world, Laura Sanchez became an Engineer and Peter Adams still got the help he needed to become a Doctor because society was a stronger, more connected and better place.
This is not a zero sum game. Helping minorities is not going to make society weaker, it will make it stronger, richer and fairer.
A good example is this. One of the MOST succesful ways to get more women into upper management and equalize pay is (surprizingly) giving fathers paternity leave and forcing them to 'use it or lose it' rather than give it to their wives. Doing this makes men happier, and women more succesful, and society richer. NOONE HAS TO PAY. Racism and sexism are just bad, they just hurt some people specifically and others generally. Noone but the very very most corrupt actually benefit.
Edit - For a good control experiment, consider the North and South of the United States before the war. Neither is a egalitarian place, but in the North there is more Democracy, and more equality between the races. The south gained an initial boost to its wealth because Slaves CAN do work, but eventually the North became a better place to be whether you were black OR white. Not having slaves didn't cost those white people a penny. In fact, it made them vastly richer.
I think what we are seeing with regards to Capuano is the democratic base being skeptical of having white guys representing them after 2016. He was fairly liberal and reliable vote for minority causes, but in the end I think the Dem base has been burned too many times by white guys going "I am very liberal on the campaign trail" and going centrist in Washington.
Capuano may not have deserved it(arguably), but if this signals an end to those guys in favor of candidates that are of/from/and part of the community that is a good thing. No more white saviors, if minorities and women are going to be helped, they are going to have to help themselves.
I don't like this line of thinking. It's pointlessly exclusionary. Womens rights and minority rights cost men and white people NOTHING. In fact, womens rights help men. And minority rights help white people. Racism is bad for everyone in a society who is not absurdly rich, because society is an interconnected network which grows stronger as each node (person) grows stronger. Locking up minorities, leaving them poorly educated, and then blaming them for their own problems SEEMS to help white people, but I am 100% certain that if we had a control society where noone had ever thought of racism then EVERYONE would be better off. White privilege/the patriarchy just hurts men less than it does women and minorities. It doesn't actually make their lives better.
In todays world, Laura Sanchez is forced to work as a cleaner while Peter Adams got the help he needed to become a Doctor. In a better world, Laura Sanchez became an Engineer and Peter Adams still got the help he needed to become a Doctor because society was a stronger, more connected and better place.
This is not a zero sum game. Helping minorities is not going to make society weaker, it will make it stronger, richer and fairer.
A good example is this. One of the MOST succesful ways to get more women into upper management and equalize pay is (surprizingly) giving fathers paternity leave and forcing them to 'use it or lose it' rather than give it to their wives. Doing this makes men happier, and women more succesful, and society richer. NOONE HAS TO PAY. Racism and sexism are just bad, they just hurt some people specifically and others generally. Noone but the very very most corrupt actually benefit.
Edit - For a good control experiment, consider the North and South of the United States before the war. Neither is a egalitarian place, but in the North there is more Democracy, and more equality between the races. The south gained an initial boost to its wealth because Slaves CAN do work, but eventually the North became a better place to be whether you were black OR white. Not having slaves didn't cost those white people a penny. In fact, it made them vastly richer.
I know you have a lot to say, but can you please make an effort to keep things on topic to the thread. I.e. a thread about electing representatives to government.
Only registered Democrats and Republicans can vote in their own party’s primaries. In the Republican one, Walden got more votes than all seven Democrats combined.
Yeah she's not going to win, but she'll make him spend more money than he usually would I guess
Only registered Democrats and Republicans can vote in their own party’s primaries. In the Republican one, Walden got more votes than all seven Democrats combined.
Yeah she's not going to win, but she'll make him spend more money than he usually would I guess
Eh, nothing is really readable from Primaries like that. Republicans vote FAR more than democrats in party primaries.
Only registered Democrats and Republicans can vote in their own party’s primaries. In the Republican one, Walden got more votes than all seven Democrats combined.
Yeah she's not going to win, but she'll make him spend more money than he usually would I guess
Eh, nothing is really readable from Primaries like that. Republicans vote FAR more than democrats in party primaries.
Not really true universally this time around, though.
Posts
He is apparently McCain's replacement in the Senate
I don't know much about him aside from he's a republican and was a friend to McCain
Anyway, not up in 2018 so probably not talking about him in here.
That's true. I'm just worried that, considering that midterms are heavily dependent on the base to turn out, Hoosier dems might look at Donnelly and going, "meh" and not voting.
Ain't really anything I can do about it though, and the flip is the dem base is overall, for the country, pretty motivated so that will help him.
Pressley won fairly comfortably in the end in an upset. Capuano conceded early and about as well as could be expected. The Pod Save America people were pleased because for several of them Pressley was one of their first bosses as she was political director for Joe Kennedy II and John Kerry before she got elected to the Boston City Council about a decade ago.
Former Obama chief speech writer and Dep Chief of Staff respectively
Ideologically there's basically nothing between them (arguably she might be slightly to his right) but he's a 66 year old white man, she's a 44 year old black woman in a 2/3 non-white district. That's oversimplifying it but when ideology basically cancel out and the challenger has good experience, demographics can be a big factor. She is a black woman, and black women are increasingly exerting their power as the base of the Democratic party. She's 20 years his junior. And its a 2/3 non-white district.
ed(corrected Capuano's age)
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Capuano may not have deserved it(arguably), but if this signals an end to those guys in favor of candidates that are of/from/and part of the community that is a good thing. No more white saviors, if minorities and women are going to be helped, they are going to have to help themselves.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/31/trump-loyalist-devin-nunes-faces-tighter-house-race-in-california.html
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
His district is very red.
Medium Buying is a political ad purchase tracker.
Forced to play defense across the board, we're going to see more of this as the GOP is forced to make choices about where funding goes.
Oh, I know. A drop from +36 to +5 is......amazing. But I'm still just dumbfounded at how this obvious Russian puppet is still up at all.
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
A big enough portion of voters have literally not read or heard any news in several years about him, but know that he's Republican.
Rasmussen - D+4
Economist/YouGov - D+5
Those are.....stark differences from literally every other poll out there.
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
It's also Rasmussen, though.
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
This was my implication. Ras' likely voter screen is... interesting. But it's also generally worth noting likely voter vs. registered voters. Given the enthusiasm gap, there might be an advantage for Democrats when that happens.
They're generally well in line with the other ones from these outlets, so I'd focus more on trendlines for the outlet.
Rasmussen (most recent is first):
D+4, D+5, Tie, D+7, D+4, D+7, D+7
YouGov:
D+5, D+6, D+4, D+3, D+4, D+6
On his voting record I think he certainly didn't deserve it (there's a reason the CBC backed him), but that's not what it was about ultimately. And while black women are so underrepresented that's not entirely an unfair factor to take into account.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
The judge has ordered the spoiler candidate struck from the ballot due to fraud.
Shoulda struck the Republican who was perpetrating the fraud >_>
Don't worry, I'm sure we'll see the relevant law enforcement and regulatory bodies get right on investigating that.
After all, election integrity is a cornerstone of democracy.
I mean, it's not like voter ID and redistricting, and roll purges are there for partisan gain. They're there to serve the public trust, and make sure elections are the will of the people.
Right?
There is a criminal investigation going on over this currently.
But will there be consequences? That's more the issue I have. And the one I'm most skeptical on.
But having an investigation is a good first step though.
Being negative and speculating on this further isn't going to be productive. We can reopen discussion when there's news about the investigation.
more on this: the district includes some slightly red areas like Bellevue and eastern King County, areas that tend to vote for Republicans in the state legislature but also vote for Democratic presidents, as well as some more-right, very agricultural and rural regions like Yakima
Kim Schrier's opponent is Dino Rossi, known idiot and perennial loser; he's tried to win several statewide elections in the past and has never succeeded. I believe his last effort was an attempt to unseat Patty Murray, in what turned out to be a fairly close race. several things are working against him in district 8, primarily 1) he's a smarmy car salesman, and that doesn't play well out there, and 2) he's a carpetbagger, who only moved to the district so he could run there. Kim Schrier has a tough fight ahead of her but she's lived in the area her whole life, and the fact that she works for a living (she is a doctor) should help her a lot.
e: iirc if you totaled up all the D votes and all the R votes in the primary, there were slightly more D votes; obviously that doesn't make it a sure thing, but it's a winnable race
I don't like this line of thinking. It's pointlessly exclusionary. Womens rights and minority rights cost men and white people NOTHING. In fact, womens rights help men. And minority rights help white people. Racism is bad for everyone in a society who is not absurdly rich, because society is an interconnected network which grows stronger as each node (person) grows stronger. Locking up minorities, leaving them poorly educated, and then blaming them for their own problems SEEMS to help white people, but I am 100% certain that if we had a control society where noone had ever thought of racism then EVERYONE would be better off. White privilege/the patriarchy just hurts men less than it does women and minorities. It doesn't actually make their lives better.
In todays world, Laura Sanchez is forced to work as a cleaner while Peter Adams got the help he needed to become a Doctor. In a better world, Laura Sanchez became an Engineer and Peter Adams still got the help he needed to become a Doctor because society was a stronger, more connected and better place.
This is not a zero sum game. Helping minorities is not going to make society weaker, it will make it stronger, richer and fairer.
A good example is this. One of the MOST succesful ways to get more women into upper management and equalize pay is (surprizingly) giving fathers paternity leave and forcing them to 'use it or lose it' rather than give it to their wives. Doing this makes men happier, and women more succesful, and society richer. NOONE HAS TO PAY. Racism and sexism are just bad, they just hurt some people specifically and others generally. Noone but the very very most corrupt actually benefit.
Edit - For a good control experiment, consider the North and South of the United States before the war. Neither is a egalitarian place, but in the North there is more Democracy, and more equality between the races. The south gained an initial boost to its wealth because Slaves CAN do work, but eventually the North became a better place to be whether you were black OR white. Not having slaves didn't cost those white people a penny. In fact, it made them vastly richer.
More than Cruz?
Yeah he's just a contemptible dweeb.
I know you have a lot to say, but can you please make an effort to keep things on topic to the thread. I.e. a thread about electing representatives to government.
Super long shot but I hope she wins
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/democrat-seeks-congress-seat-in-conservative-chunk-of-oregon/2018/09/05/f5d8eb92-b0d1-11e8-8b53-50116768e499_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.1a9d10af83f9
Yeah she's not going to win, but she'll make him spend more money than he usually would I guess
Eh, nothing is really readable from Primaries like that. Republicans vote FAR more than democrats in party primaries.
Not really true universally this time around, though.