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[US Federal Congressional Elections 2018] Tester Wins, AZ/FL Too Close
Somewhat related - 39% of latino men and 34% of latino women voted for Cruz?
Latinos are not a monolith. Conservative religious values matter to minorities as well, and the Texas Republican Party is definitely aware that they could lose Texas forever without more latino Republicans.
In another timeline, the GOP cemented a much longer legacy of US control by abandoning white supremacy entirely. Asian-Americans, Muslim-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, and even African-Americans all have huge swaths of their demographics that are 'natural' conservatives: religious, family-oriented, traditionalist, all kinds of other facets that the GOP supposedly stands for on paper but in our current reality are totally subservient to (and trending further and further everyday towards) white nationalism.
Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.
If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.
You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.
I voted for every Republican available for national office from Bush Sr - Romney, except the occasional Democrat as a rep to keep things honest. I voted for Reagan (vs Carter) in the kindergarden polls they used to do.
I am now a registered Democrat. You can convince the base.
And all it took was 8+ years of being continuously wore down on D&D. This is the Day of the Dead / Dr Logan trains an army of Bubs to fight the zombies approach.
I'm pretty sure it was nazis co-opting the party and Spool having a reasonable reaction to that. The fact that so few seem to have the same thought as spool is a little horrifying.
I think there's some selection going on there though. As we saw last night, the rural areas are turning out at higher rates while the suburban areas are hard-shifting left. I think what we saw is at least in part some moderate Republicans (or right-leaning independents, which are functionally the same thing) in the suburbs and cities being driven away from the party, while some rural white low-turnout voters are getting more enthusiastic and more decisively Republican.
And then you've got your higher-profile Steve Schmidts and Ana Navarros of the media/political world. There are not as many as I'd like, but they're not unicorns either.
OremLK on
My zombie survival life simulator They Don't Sleep is out now on Steam if you want to check it out.
I kind of wish leaders would drop the bipartisanship song and dance and just admit almost nothing was going to get passed in Congress the next two years.
“Now that I can no longer legally force democrats to sit in the corner like children, it’s time for me to stop openly shitting on them, also everyone forget everything that happened in my entire political career before yesterday.”
They're going to do it. It'll be just like it was with Bush. They'll ignore crimes in favor of cooperating on bad legislation.
I kind of wish leaders would drop the bipartisanship song and dance and just admit almost nothing was going to get passed in Congress the next two years.
“Now that I can no longer legally force democrats to sit in the corner like children, it’s time for me to stop openly shitting on them, also everyone forget everything that happened in my entire political career before yesterday.”
They're going to do it. It'll be just like it was with Bush. They'll ignore crimes in favor of cooperating on bad legislation.
But investigations by Democrats happened under Bush and that would be the more relevant comparison?
Somewhat related - 39% of latino men and 34% of latino women voted for Cruz?
Latinos are not a monolith. Conservative religious values matter to minorities as well, and the Texas Republican Party is definitely aware that they could lose Texas forever without more latino Republicans.
In another timeline, the GOP cemented a much longer legacy of US control by abandoning white supremacy entirely. Asian-Americans, Muslim-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, and even African-Americans all have huge swaths of their demographics that are 'natural' conservatives: religious, family-oriented, traditionalist, all kinds of other facets that the GOP supposedly stands for on paper but in our current reality are totally subservient to (and trending further and further everyday towards) white nationalism.
This would have been a fucked up three party system. See 1968.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
The new Democratic majority's zeal for congressional investigations goes well beyond Alberto Gonzales and the fired federal prosecutors.
Aided by a new investigative team including a former mob prosecutor and a Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter, Democrats have launched more than three dozen probes of the administration ranging from the White House to obscure agency heads. The House Oversight Committee alone has conducted 20 investigations.
With few legislative accomplishments in hand -- and only a few prospects in the offing -- it seems plain the 110th is shaping up as "The Oversight Congress."
This is troubling news for the Bush White House and Republicans. No fewer than six administration officials have resigned already amid the congressional probes -- and many more are in Democratic sights.
Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.
If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.
You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.
I voted for every Republican available for national office from Bush Sr - Romney, except the occasional Democrat as a rep to keep things honest. I voted for Reagan (vs Carter) in the kindergarden polls they used to do.
I am now a registered Democrat. You can convince the base.
Same here. I was a Republican all of my life up until about five years ago. If you get really bored and dig into my post history, you'll find some stuff from like 10-15 years ago from my mid-twenties that's probably super embarrassing for me now.
I even - oh god, I might throw up a little - I even voted for Ted Cruz in 2012.
Yes I know, I regret it immensely and will do all I can going forward to make up for it. But the point is that I was as red as they come, and eventually I completely came around to the other side on almost every issue. This didn't happen overnight... it happened over the course of years, over a thousand cuts. This is why it's important to be persistent in sharing your ideas and positions and not giving up, even on those who seem like they'll never move. Some of them won't, this is true. But some of them can and will.
I think hindsight from the leadership and the new blood in the Dem coalition will prevent a repeat of that.
Those investigations helped make the GOP toxic, and Dems won even more seats in the next election. And the presidency. And 60 Senate seats. We WANT a repeat of that.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
+26
No-QuarterNothing To FearBut Fear ItselfRegistered Userregular
Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.
If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.
You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.
I voted for every Republican available for national office from Bush Sr - Romney, except the occasional Democrat as a rep to keep things honest. I voted for Reagan (vs Carter) in the kindergarden polls they used to do.
I am now a registered Democrat. You can convince the base.
And all it took was 8+ years of being continuously wore down on D&D. This is the Day of the Dead / Dr Logan trains an army of Bubs to fight the zombies approach.
I'm pretty sure it was nazis co-opting the party and Spool having a reasonable reaction to that. The fact that so few seem to have the same thought as spool is a little horrifying.
Spool has us as a support group for his Recovering Republicanism.
Michigan came so close to doing some ridiculous things last night:
Fred Upton won by TWENTY-TWO points two years ago, last night he won by 4.5.
Tim Wahlberg won by 15, Democrats nominated the same woman, she cut the margin in half. Wahlberg's district is the single most gerrymandered in the whole state. He is toast with fair districts.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
I think hindsight from the leadership and the new blood in the Dem coalition will prevent a repeat of that.
Those investigations helped make the GOP toxic, and Dems won even more seats in the next election. And the presidency. And 60 Senate seats. We WANT a repeat of that.
Ah, that was for Styrofoam, not Couscous. I agree with you completely.
0
EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
There are reports now that the digital voting machines at 7 Broward County locations completely failed to transmit data and their results are being manually delivered to Tallahassee via thumb drives.
Broward county is a very dense, very blue area north of Miami (holding Ft. Lauderdale and a number of other cities).
There are reports now that the digital voting machines at 7 Broward County locations completely failed to transmit data and their results are being manually delivered to Tallahassee via thumb drives.
Broward county is a very dense, very blue area north of Miami (holding Ft. Lauderdale and a number of other cities).
As I said, given the fuckery endemic to Florida...
Though this may have been legit machine error. Still.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
There are reports now that the digital voting machines at 7 Broward County locations completely failed to transmit data and their results are being manually delivered to Tallahassee via thumb drives.
Broward county is a very dense, very blue area north of Miami (holding Ft. Lauderdale and a number of other cities).
Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.
If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.
You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.
Somewhat related - 39% of latino men and 34% of latino women voted for Cruz?
As a white male and former Republican, I voted O'Rourke. As far as Latinos voting for Cruz, the Republican party has traditionally done well with catering to the Latino vote and it's really hard to get someone to flip on their party because it means admitting they've been wrong for a long time.
There are reports now that the digital voting machines at 7 Broward County locations completely failed to transmit data and their results are being manually delivered to Tallahassee via thumb drives.
Broward county is a very dense, very blue area north of Miami (holding Ft. Lauderdale and a number of other cities).
Link? I just need evidence before I dare to dream.
So now that the election is over, exit polls can be a little useful, so let's look at some interesting findings:
Under 30s made up 13% of the electorate. That's basically normal for a midterm, no youth surge.
Asian voters are now overwhelmingly Democratic. 77-23 compared to 69-29. That's part of a trend, but a relatively recent (like, last decade) shift. They're up to 3% of the electorate.
Democrats won whites under 45, which is not at all a given. For whites generally, having a college degree shifted their vote 15 points towards Democrats. White people without a college degree went for the GOP 61-37. Whites with a college degree went to the Democrats 53-45. White women with a degree 59-39. White college men were just slightly Republican, 51-47.
The less money you make the more likely you were to be a Democratic voter, which is not a surprise. Dems won all income groups below 100k, lost above it.
Independents went for Democrats 54-42. Nationally Democrats had a 4 point party ID advantage.
Non-believers are up to 1 in 6 voters, and are overwhelmingly Democratic (70-28).
Jewish voters were 79-17 for Democrats. Was 71-23 in 2016 and 66-33 in 2014. Pretty clear that those voters are seeing the anti-semitism endorsed by the GOP and moving to the Democratic camp to try to stop it.
16% of voters were first time voters in a midterm (this seems low, given overall turnout, but sure). They were for Democrats 62-36.
Trump approval is 45/54. Dem approval is 48/47, GOP approval is 44/52. Pelosi 31/56 (didn't ask about Ryan or McConnell, which I find interesting)
39/56 against impeachment. 54-41 Russian is politically motivated more than justified, 41-46 approval for Mueller personally.
23% view immigration as the most important issue and 3/4 of them went for the GOP, so Trump and the media's hyping of the caravan had a fairly sizable effect.
Health care was THE issue, 41% of voters ranked it first, Democrats won them by 52 points. Mandate to protect pre-existing conditions, protect ACA in general. Only thing I could see happening in the next two years is maybe something on prescription drugs.
68% said the economy is great or good. And the opposition party still won nationally by 9 points. If we have a recession, things could get dire for the GOP.
10% of the country said guns were the most important issue and Democrats won those voters by 41 points. The passion on this issue is now on the gun control side, which is a massive change. Overall voters want stricter gun control 59-37..
66-25 support for Roe being kept as it is rather than being overturned.
More people are concerned about people being denied the right to vote than people illegitimately voting, by a 53-36 margin.
6% of voters identified as LGBT, they are also now a minority voting like black people. 82-17.
Actually thinking about this further, given that there was a general tunrout surge, there was a youth turnout surge, it just didn't overwhelm the surge from other portions of the electorate to make the youth proportion of the electorate higher.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
+4
EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
As a general calculation, Broward is currently under the average reporting numbers for the state substantially, at 57% voting (~62% is the average statewide and 70% is the average for the high-population areas). Assuming that the lower trend is from those missing stations, if they reach the average that would be about 58-60k votes missing, if not more.
There is no guarentee those votes actually happened, nor that they would be all or majority democratic, but with how slim the margins are for both Gillium and Nelson recounts are very, very likely.
Compare 2016-2018 where the House and Senate would rubber stamp any awful thing Republicans want to 2019-2020 where the Democrats in the House will get to go “lolnope” at the Senate.
It’s night and day. Last night was a clear victory. Anybody saying anything different is lying or incapable of seeing anything good.
You're going to see the GOP Senate suddenly get it's shit together and pass base friendly legislation since they no longer have to be responsible for it passing into law.
RedTide#1907 on Battle.net
Come Overwatch with meeeee
Compare 2016-2018 where the House and Senate would rubber stamp any awful thing Republicans want to 2019-2020 where the Democrats in the House will get to go “lolnope” at the Senate.
It’s night and day. Last night was a clear victory. Anybody saying anything different is lying or incapable of seeing anything good.
You're going to see the GOP Senate suddenly get it's shit together and pass base friendly legislation since they no longer have to be responsible for it passing into law.
Cory Gardner and Susan Collins (and maybe Thom Tillis?) won't be thrilled by that idea.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
Compare 2016-2018 where the House and Senate would rubber stamp any awful thing Republicans want to 2019-2020 where the Democrats in the House will get to go “lolnope” at the Senate.
It’s night and day. Last night was a clear victory. Anybody saying anything different is lying or incapable of seeing anything good.
You're going to see the GOP Senate suddenly get it's shit together and pass base friendly legislation since they no longer have to be responsible for it passing into law.
Well, "friendly". The Senate GOP isn't quite as loney toons as the house.
There are reports now that the digital voting machines at 7 Broward County locations completely failed to transmit data and their results are being manually delivered to Tallahassee via thumb drives.
Broward county is a very dense, very blue area north of Miami (holding Ft. Lauderdale and a number of other cities).
If this is a thing that swings either or both dems over the top by god the conspiracy theory world will be ablaze. "Hillary Clinton made these votes on her email server in Benghazi and Seth Rich knew it!"
+2
EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
I’m sure I’m overinterpreting, but on my drive to work this morning nearly all of the Cruz/sessions signs had vanished, but most of the Beto signs were still up.
Maybe that says something about the depth of his support? Gave me a good feeling, anyways.
sign rent on those Cruz yards costs a lot
0
ChaosHatHop, hop, hop, HA!Trick of the lightRegistered Userregular
about how much things swung in various house districts
Quoting this again because it really is a great visualization of how much of an impact the "blue wave" actually had. Just looking at who won and who flipped one or another doesn't really tell the whole story. There's a lot to be optimistic about here.
ummm
were you looking at a different graphic?
that one shows a bunch of districts moved left, but the majority of the ones that did move left remained right. It ended by stating that this wave was much smaller than the ones in 06 and 10
edit: I'm super happy we have the house, but I'm not exactly on the blue wave bandwagon at all
about how much things swung in various house districts
Quoting this again because it really is a great visualization of how much of an impact the "blue wave" actually had. Just looking at who won and who flipped one or another doesn't really tell the whole story. There's a lot to be optimistic about here.
ummm
were you looking at a different graphic?
that one shows a bunch of districts moved left, but the majority of the ones that did move left remained right. It ended by stating that this wave was much smaller than the ones in 06 and 10
I'm getting so tired of people just dismissing the electorate moving to the left because we didn't win all the races where the electorate moved to the left.
There are reports now that the digital voting machines at 7 Broward County locations completely failed to transmit data and their results are being manually delivered to Tallahassee via thumb drives.
Broward county is a very dense, very blue area north of Miami (holding Ft. Lauderdale and a number of other cities).
That was last night, I think they're in now. (I noted a big shift that brought Nelson under recall range before I checked out for the evening)
about how much things swung in various house districts
Quoting this again because it really is a great visualization of how much of an impact the "blue wave" actually had. Just looking at who won and who flipped one or another doesn't really tell the whole story. There's a lot to be optimistic about here.
ummm
were you looking at a different graphic?
that one shows a bunch of districts moved left, but the majority of the ones that did move left remained right. It ended by stating that this wave was much smaller than the ones in 06 and 10
edit: I'm super happy we have the house, but I'm not exactly on the blue wave bandwagon at all
Yeah, I'm not either.
I feel like the blue wave happened, to a certain degree - turnout WAS up, there WAS movement towards Democrats. But the wave ran into the red wall. Rural turnout was ALSO way up, with the intention of specifically mitigating any such wave. In a lot of places it wasn't enough, and the wall sprang some leaks. In others, it WAS enough, and stopped it cold. In still others, it asserted its dominance and we lost Senate seats. (Which, as a sidenote, is something that was on my mind for the last month or so - would the "wave" have happened without people talking about it and amping one another up? But at the same time, did the talking about it galvanize conservative voters who might typically have sat out a midterm when they were in control? Too many variables to know one way or another).
I'm neutral-to-happy on how the House turned out, disappointed on the Senate (which could shift back to neutral-ish if we manage to get either of AZ or FL). As I sit and mull it over, though, it's the non-headline stuff which is making me happiest: the number of governorships picked up. The number of state legislatures. Re-enfranchisement. Medicaid expansion. I am coming out of this election feeling that the country is in a better place than it was before, Senate non-withstanding.
Or to put it in another perspective with the state legislature thing - I had a legitimate fear following 2016 that the outcome of the 2018 election could set the stage for a fucking Constitutional Convention which the Republicans would have a supermajority over in terms of state legislatures. That's not happening now. Thank. Fucking. God.
Posts
In another timeline, the GOP cemented a much longer legacy of US control by abandoning white supremacy entirely. Asian-Americans, Muslim-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, and even African-Americans all have huge swaths of their demographics that are 'natural' conservatives: religious, family-oriented, traditionalist, all kinds of other facets that the GOP supposedly stands for on paper but in our current reality are totally subservient to (and trending further and further everyday towards) white nationalism.
http://lexiconmegatherium.tumblr.com/
I think there's some selection going on there though. As we saw last night, the rural areas are turning out at higher rates while the suburban areas are hard-shifting left. I think what we saw is at least in part some moderate Republicans (or right-leaning independents, which are functionally the same thing) in the suburbs and cities being driven away from the party, while some rural white low-turnout voters are getting more enthusiastic and more decisively Republican.
And then you've got your higher-profile Steve Schmidts and Ana Navarros of the media/political world. There are not as many as I'd like, but they're not unicorns either.
They're going to do it. It'll be just like it was with Bush. They'll ignore crimes in favor of cooperating on bad legislation.
But investigations by Democrats happened under Bush and that would be the more relevant comparison?
This would have been a fucked up three party system. See 1968.
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
It has always been the senate that has been a problem for democrats, but that's a far more complicated game than who's the minority leader.
https://www.politico.com/story/2007/05/the-oversight-congress-trouble-for-bush-004137
Same here. I was a Republican all of my life up until about five years ago. If you get really bored and dig into my post history, you'll find some stuff from like 10-15 years ago from my mid-twenties that's probably super embarrassing for me now.
I even - oh god, I might throw up a little - I even voted for Ted Cruz in 2012.
Yes I know, I regret it immensely and will do all I can going forward to make up for it. But the point is that I was as red as they come, and eventually I completely came around to the other side on almost every issue. This didn't happen overnight... it happened over the course of years, over a thousand cuts. This is why it's important to be persistent in sharing your ideas and positions and not giving up, even on those who seem like they'll never move. Some of them won't, this is true. But some of them can and will.
Oculus: TheBigDookie | XBL: Dook | NNID: BigDookie
Those investigations helped make the GOP toxic, and Dems won even more seats in the next election. And the presidency. And 60 Senate seats. We WANT a repeat of that.
Spool has us as a support group for his Recovering Republicanism.
Fred Upton won by TWENTY-TWO points two years ago, last night he won by 4.5.
Tim Wahlberg won by 15, Democrats nominated the same woman, she cut the margin in half. Wahlberg's district is the single most gerrymandered in the whole state. He is toast with fair districts.
Ah, that was for Styrofoam, not Couscous. I agree with you completely.
Broward county is a very dense, very blue area north of Miami (holding Ft. Lauderdale and a number of other cities).
As I said, given the fuckery endemic to Florida...
Though this may have been legit machine error. Still.
Not a fan of all these technical failures
As a QA engineer they are deeply offensive to me.
As a white male and former Republican, I voted O'Rourke. As far as Latinos voting for Cruz, the Republican party has traditionally done well with catering to the Latino vote and it's really hard to get someone to flip on their party because it means admitting they've been wrong for a long time.
Link? I just need evidence before I dare to dream.
Actually thinking about this further, given that there was a general tunrout surge, there was a youth turnout surge, it just didn't overwhelm the surge from other portions of the electorate to make the youth proportion of the electorate higher.
There is no guarentee those votes actually happened, nor that they would be all or majority democratic, but with how slim the margins are for both Gillium and Nelson recounts are very, very likely.
You're going to see the GOP Senate suddenly get it's shit together and pass base friendly legislation since they no longer have to be responsible for it passing into law.
Come Overwatch with meeeee
Cory Gardner and Susan Collins (and maybe Thom Tillis?) won't be thrilled by that idea.
Well, "friendly". The Senate GOP isn't quite as loney toons as the house.
Still counting.
If this is a thing that swings either or both dems over the top by god the conspiracy theory world will be ablaze. "Hillary Clinton made these votes on her email server in Benghazi and Seth Rich knew it!"
All the population centers went for Gillum, all the rural areas went for DeSantis. Get lost with your judgemental crap.
sign rent on those Cruz yards costs a lot
Enc I feel really bad for you that everyone hates your state and you're so valiantly trying to defend it.
ummm
were you looking at a different graphic?
that one shows a bunch of districts moved left, but the majority of the ones that did move left remained right. It ended by stating that this wave was much smaller than the ones in 06 and 10
edit: I'm super happy we have the house, but I'm not exactly on the blue wave bandwagon at all
What a very Trumpian headline. Such a uniter.
I'm getting so tired of people just dismissing the electorate moving to the left because we didn't win all the races where the electorate moved to the left.
That was last night, I think they're in now. (I noted a big shift that brought Nelson under recall range before I checked out for the evening)
The south left side is where all the well meaning but long term / racist republican grandparents live.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/montana/?utm_term=.e6dc3617862a
So it is down to AZ and FL.
Yeah, I'm not either.
I feel like the blue wave happened, to a certain degree - turnout WAS up, there WAS movement towards Democrats. But the wave ran into the red wall. Rural turnout was ALSO way up, with the intention of specifically mitigating any such wave. In a lot of places it wasn't enough, and the wall sprang some leaks. In others, it WAS enough, and stopped it cold. In still others, it asserted its dominance and we lost Senate seats. (Which, as a sidenote, is something that was on my mind for the last month or so - would the "wave" have happened without people talking about it and amping one another up? But at the same time, did the talking about it galvanize conservative voters who might typically have sat out a midterm when they were in control? Too many variables to know one way or another).
I'm neutral-to-happy on how the House turned out, disappointed on the Senate (which could shift back to neutral-ish if we manage to get either of AZ or FL). As I sit and mull it over, though, it's the non-headline stuff which is making me happiest: the number of governorships picked up. The number of state legislatures. Re-enfranchisement. Medicaid expansion. I am coming out of this election feeling that the country is in a better place than it was before, Senate non-withstanding.
Or to put it in another perspective with the state legislature thing - I had a legitimate fear following 2016 that the outcome of the 2018 election could set the stage for a fucking Constitutional Convention which the Republicans would have a supermajority over in terms of state legislatures. That's not happening now. Thank. Fucking. God.
If it makes you feel any better, think of FL1 as natural packing. We go 2:1 Republican like clockwork; lots of wasted red votes for Congress.