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[2018 State and Local Elections in the US] Dems Pickup MI, WI, IL, KS, NV, NM, ME
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-new-york-governor/cuomo-widens-poll-lead-over-nixon-in-new-york-governor-race-idUSKBN1K82EC
A 36 point lead in polling, from July. Haven't found any recent polls. If things haven't changed significantly it's his race to lose.
940 has some shenanigans involving the legislature trying to keep it off the ballot by passing it then amending it (they're not allowed to do that). I'll be voting for it, because the "compromise" bill is too watered down. This also marks a time I mostly agree with Tim Eyman, which is a real "WTF reality" moment. They removed keeping up training being a requirement to maintain certification, did this (strikeout is 940, the rest is the replacement bill) which is bad, and did this
which is gooseshit of the highest order. "Earliest safe opportunity" to law enforcement way too often means "after everyone has bled to death"
He did shift left on a few things, and most importantly got the Independent Democratic Conference to shut down. This was a bunch of worthless assholes who caucused with the Republicans in the legislature in return for various whatnots, thus keeping the Republicans in the majority. Cuomo supported them, and I suspect the only reason he's gotten them to reconcile is because of general Democratic rage and Nixon's primary. Anyway, Nixon is out of NYC, which has a different set of priorities than upstate, so any chance she had really depended on Cuomo keeping on backstabbing the crap out of liberals (see also what he pulled on the Working Families Party). Now that he's modified his stances a bit she's basically toast. Getting Cuomo to shift as much as he has is the best outcome that one could realistically hope for. Between incumbency and upstate sucking it was always going to be a long shot.
There was never going to be a chance of her getting a position in his administration, and Albany is basically run by the two legislature leaders and the governor so it's not like any position would have been anything other than buying her off. State level politics in New York are pretty god-awful.
Yeah Cuomo basically sucks, but Nixon is a shitty candidate who doesn't seem like she'd do very well. The only demographics Cuomo might not win are NYC based media (who hate him) and maybe rural white liberals.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Which is Boston. I think the black woman factor had a bigger role tbh, but that's reform in its own way. Rachel Rollins answer on what she'd do differently in the 6 way debate:
An argument could be that Evandro Carvalho pushed reform per se more and Rollins pushed representation more, while the Henning was status quo/pseudo-incumbent
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
It's tough to get good candidates, or at least experienced ones, because Cuomo will screw you if you cross him. Just his influence at the MTA is enough to make most NYC politicians think twice.
Honestly, if the legislature is looking to go strongly Democratic I'm going to consider voting Republican because four years of Albany doing nothing is par for the course and I don't see Cuomo being removed any other way.
From the looks of Cuomo's status, his strength is the machine politics in the region. Break that or sever his ties with the players in his pocket, and he's vulnerable - which is going to take more than simply having a feisty rival candidate. It's too bad Cuomo is such a corrupt goose; his administrative skills must be very impressive to accomplish that, if only he were using it for good.
The Buffalo Beast used to have an annual bit listing the 50 worst people in the country. Karl Rove was on that list with a description that included something along the lines of "is thought of as skilled, but simply lacks the ethics that stops one from kicking a grandmother down the stairs".
That's basically Cuomo with the addition of a last name that allowed him access to the New York Democratic machine. The only upside is that Cuomo looks like he wants a shot at the big seat in 2020, so he'll stay left(ish) and then not make it past New Hampshire.
This is my thinking as well.
I can accept Cuomo as the governor again, and pondered voting Nixon to shift Cuomo left, but not sure that's the right strategy in the world we live in now.
seattle already passed a sugar beverage tax, I-1634 is a response to that
I'm generally not a fan of vice taxes or regressive taxes, and the beverage tax is both, but the backers of the initiative are obviously not acting in good faith and I don't really want to reward that behavior, so I'll probably vote against it
It's the primary, so that's not too much of a concern. More so would be if you think Nixon would blow it where Cumono wouldn't in the general.
While true, stranger things have happened - like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. That said, Cuomo seems more engaged than Crowley ever was.
Cuomo is popular, even though he's shitty. And obviously can't have his electorate change on him.
Abrams and Kemp tied in Georgia.
Alaska politics yall!
We seriously have two state governers named Scott Walker?
No, Alaska has Bill Walker.
(Is aghast that I've been calling him Scott all this time)
I don't necessarily care for the tax either, but fuck letting large corporations tell local cities how they can raise money. Which isn't counter to your point, but I just feel like this needs to be said a little more emphatically.
I'd like to see more info on 1631, and hopefully I'll have time to do some more research on it, but at face value it looks reasonable, and I'm leaning yes.
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The really shitty thing is the Dems won a court challenge to allow non-dems to compete in their primaries, which would have allowed Bill Walker (Who was a Republican until he decided to drop that affiliation and run alongside a Dem Lt. Governor in the last election) into their primary, but when Mark Begich (Former Mayor of Anchorage and 1-term US Senator) signed up, Walker dropped out because if he lost the Primary, he wouldn't be able to compete in the General. As you mentioned, that's likely going to split the vote, and allow Dunleavy, who despite being a member of the Alaska Legislature since like 2012, has little to no accomplishments to his name.
We do that enough as it is. Don young, who should have been put to bed long ago is definently gonna win again for congressman
Don Young is pretty much invincible, but that's a conversation for the Congressional election thread.
1. Placing a limit on the number of patients assigned to nurses and imposing a 25k fine (per violation) on hospitals found to be over the limit
2. Creating a citizens commission to draft and push for a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United
3. Upholding the current law against gender discrimination in public places (a YES to uphold, a NO to repeal)
I'd love it if you took a look at my art and my PATREON!
Indeed, everything about the data makes it seem incredibly weird.
PSN: ShogunGunshow
Origin: ShogunGunshow
But I thought Regan passed away
Incumbents get scared long before there's any real chance of losing.