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[Natural Disasters] Dixie alley tornado season in full swing.

ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLORENCE:

Hurricane Florence may have come ashore and transitioned to extratropical (post-tropical cyclone) but that doesn't mean she is done wreaking havoc on the east coast! Sure the skies have mostly cleared and the rains have largely stopped but with this new storm mode that Florence has a new threat. Tornadoes are now a big concern for Virginia. Currently, the SPC has a tornado watch out for portions of the state and several violent tornadoes have been spawned including one in Richmond, VA which has resulted in one fatality (CLICK HERE FOR THE VIDEO).

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The flooding left over by Florence will also take a while to drain out to sea and could take a week to fully clear up, if not a bit longer in some places. If you look at the Carolinas and points just north you can see a very large number of the flood gauges in the area are at or above flood stage still and will be for quite some time! In fact, some rivers like the Neuse River at Kinston (click to see flood forecast and current level) are still rising even though the rain has ended in this area. The Neuse River at Kinston is forecast to keep rising through the 22nd of September! Many other locations are currently at historic levels and even as they start to slowly drain down from that point they will stay above the flood stage for some time.

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Florence is forecast to continue to move off to the northeast and will diminish further and further in threat as it does so but that does not mean the tropics are done with us yet. Taking a look out over the Atlantic at this time and you will see things have largely quietened down. The storms that are present are dying or not a threat to land, and one could easily be fooled into thinking the season is winding down. One storm could come along and slip under everyone's radar and pull a fast one on those who live along the Gulf Coast and that is Isaac.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ISAAC

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Officially, Isaac dissipated at 5 am Eastern on Saturday and now is just an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean by Jamaica. Normally this would be the end of a storm's life but last year one storm proved we cannot let our guard down. In the images below you will see the current path of Isaac (2018) and the path of Hurricane Harvey (2017). Harvey, much like Isaac struggled with shear when it came into the Caribbean and dissipated from a tropical cyclone to a disturbance (pink line along path) but once it made it into the Gulf of Mexico conditions came together to allow that disturbed area of weather that was Harvey to re-form into a tropical cyclone and from its passing into the Gulf off Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula to making landfall on Texas the storm was able to rapidly intensify into a category 4 hurricane.

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Isaac currently is in much of the same state that Harvey was when it crossed the Caribbean. A victim of shear, Isaac has totally fallen apart and become nothing more than an area of disturbed showers and thunderstorms over Cuba and Jamaica. At the present time, wind shear over that part of the world is starting to decrease (pink circled area in Fig. 1 below) and conditions are slowly becoming more favorable for Isaac to become a tropical cyclone once more . Currently, the steering winds are forecast to take Isaac into the Gulf of Mexico near the loop current. From there it is likely that the system will maintain its northwest track and move on to affect Texas or Louisiana by the coming weekend (Fig. 2 below). While not likely to be a repeat of Hurricane Harvey, the environment will likely allow the storm to organize some and I would not at all be surprised to see Isaac be reborn as a tropical storm before it comes ashore in the US. Some of the model guidance backs this up and has the system as a tropical storm as it nears the US Gulf Coast. Water temps will be more than favorable for development but the big question that remains is how long the wind shear will stay weak enough for Isaac to redevelop into a tropical cyclone (Fig. 3 below). Throughout the week there is just a small window for this but as we get closer to the weekend the current forecast is that shear ahead of Isaac will increase once more and halt any intensification of the system.

FIG. 1:
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FIG. 2:
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FIG. 3:
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Despite what Isaac may or may not become, it will still bring gusty winds and rain to the Gulf Coast and I would not discount the possibility of some flash flooding associated with it. At this time the NHC gives it a low chance, only 10%, of reforming as they are pessimistic of the environment giving a long enough window of opportunity to Isaac to reform. While I agree that it is not the most likely to happen I think the real odds are closer to 20-30%. (It is worth noting that while some of the hurricane models show it becoming a tropical storm, the GFS and EURO do not do anything with Isaac).

ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE BASIN

rng6q9kl4l6p.png

Outside of that, the tropics in the Atlantic basin are to remain quiet and likely will for a week or two. My area of concern for the future would be the areas around the east coast of Central America where the annual monsoonal troughs can sometimes produce tropical cyclones that start near countries like Honduras and then move off straight north for the Yucatan, Gulf of Mexico, and the Greater Antilles and Bahamas. The GFS even hints at the possibility of tropical cyclones in this region way out in fantasy land (>180 hours on the run) and so it should be watched in the coming weeks. Climatologically speaking that is where most of your October storms happen.

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Posts

  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    A senior HUD official is now spreading fake news about the Hurricane coverage.

    CNN reporter:


    This is the sort of that could get people to ignore more important hurricabe coverage.

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  • ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    A senior HUD official is now spreading fake news about the Hurricane coverage.

    CNN reporter:


    This is the sort of that could get people to ignore more important hurricabe coverage.

    Fake news! Just the right trying to find a way to make CNN look bad.

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/anderson-cooper-hurricane/

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  • ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Chimera wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    A senior HUD official is now spreading fake news about the Hurricane coverage.

    CNN reporter:


    This is the sort of that could get people to ignore more important hurricabe coverage.

    Fake news! Just the right trying to find a way to make CNN look bad.

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/anderson-cooper-hurricane/

    Oh whoops, I missed your top part of your post. Yeah, it is completely ridiculous how hard they are working to discredit the media.

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  • SteevLSteevL What can I do for you? Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    A senior HUD official is now spreading fake news about the Hurricane coverage.

    CNN reporter:


    This is the sort of that could get people to ignore more important hurricabe coverage.

    The "best" part is that she replied to this via her personal twitter account with a photoshop and text that can basically be summed up as "lol it was a joke"

    Chimera
  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    i sat in front of my pc with my eyes closed for at least a minute after seeing that latest tweet.

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  • So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    Jesus christ get me off this ride, these fucking people

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  • chrisnlchrisnl Registered User regular
    I saw something that I think was yesterday, that showed Florence moving back out into the Atlantic and becoming a tropical storm again as it headed east. Is this still a possibility, and should Ireland/England be concerned?

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  • tyrannustyrannus Registered User regular
    I love the shark pictures that usually follow a hurricane.

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  • Anarchy Rules!Anarchy Rules! Registered User regular
    chrisnl wrote: »
    I saw something that I think was yesterday, that showed Florence moving back out into the Atlantic and becoming a tropical storm again as it headed east. Is this still a possibility, and should Ireland/England be concerned?

    I'm not a meteorologist, but it's probably no need to worry. Most tropical storms/hurricanes will lose almost all their strength as they cross the Atlantic. If it makes it across at worse we'll have some heavy rain or similar.

    Weirdly, the storms can bring better weather to the UK as outside the actual 'storm' part it will often bring along warm, clear weather.

    Jazz
  • JazzJazz UKRegistered User regular
    The remnants of Helene (I think) are already at the UK, bringing warm weather but also some strong winds - BBC weather app is currently suggesting gusts over 40mph - but obviously that's peanuts compared to what's happening elsewhere. That said, today I've found myself out and about in a more high- and flat-sided vehicle than my own car, so I'm being a tad wary of the winds.

  • ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    chrisnl wrote: »
    I saw something that I think was yesterday, that showed Florence moving back out into the Atlantic and becoming a tropical storm again as it headed east. Is this still a possibility, and should Ireland/England be concerned?

    I'm not a meteorologist, but it's probably no need to worry. Most tropical storms/hurricanes will lose almost all their strength as they cross the Atlantic. If it makes it across at worse we'll have some heavy rain or similar.

    Weirdly, the storms can bring better weather to the UK as outside the actual 'storm' part it will often bring along warm, clear weather.

    Yes, almost 99% of the time by the time a tropical cyclone makes it to the UK and Ireland it has fully transitioned to extratropical and is not all that different than the other deep low-pressure systems you get. They just get more attention since the source of the low is what used to be a named tropical cyclone.

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  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    edited September 2018
    So It Goes wrote: »
    Jesus christ get me off this ride, these fucking people

    this there anything they can't ruin?

    nexuscrawler on
  • ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    I met a couple of photojournalists in Wilmington during the hurricane that work in DC and normally cover politics but took the hurricane assignment so they could have a break from the political storm in DC. Personally I to would rather cover storms than the POTUS and GOP.

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  • ElvenshaeElvenshae Registered User regular
    edited September 2018
    [Heard on WTOP this morning] Tornado in Richmond last night resulted in one death when it ripped the roof off of a warehouse in which several people were working.

    One other person taken to the hospital with minor injuries from the same incident.

    We got off pretty light.

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  • LovelyLovely Registered User regular
    Chimera wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    A senior HUD official is now spreading fake news about the Hurricane coverage.

    CNN reporter:


    This is the sort of that could get people to ignore more important hurricabe coverage.

    Fake news! Just the right trying to find a way to make CNN look bad.

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/anderson-cooper-hurricane/

    So this video :


    Shows up in that snopes article, and I really recommend people watch it because it's just interesting in general and shows lots of clips from the original broadcast that the pic came from.

    That said, I first saw this video earlier today where someone had tweeted it out. The comments to said tweet were full of people going "PICS DONT LIEEEEEE. FAKE NEWS". Just, making it super obvious that they hadn't even watched two seconds of the video. ...or have a fundamental understanding about how water works. Which made me sad.

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  • Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    Lots of people lack a fundamental understanding of day and night.

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  • ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    tyrannus wrote: »
    I love the shark pictures that usually follow a hurricane.

    You'd like the building I was parked in front of for part of the storm in Sneads Ferry, NC.

    8f9wzp5q718i.png

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  • ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.

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  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.

    That looks totally passable (by boat).

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  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Lots of people lack a fundamental understanding of day and night.

    This why I don’t have an umbreon yet

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  • GyralGyral Registered User regular
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.
    First time I've even seen I-40 not choked with traffic.

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  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    kaid wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.

    That looks totally passable (by boat).

    Break out your hovervan

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  • ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Gyral wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.
    First time I've even seen I-40 not choked with traffic.

    Sadly looking at 40 out my office window here in OKC and it is dry and filled with awful traffic. :(

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  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    Phyphor wrote: »
    kaid wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.

    That looks totally passable (by boat).

    Break out your hovervan

    Flooding like this is ironically one good use of hovercraft. You have water for easy movement but you don't know whats under the surface so something that can rid on top but not get hung up on submerged cars/debris is nice.

  • ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    kaid wrote: »
    Phyphor wrote: »
    kaid wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.

    That looks totally passable (by boat).

    Break out your hovervan

    Flooding like this is ironically one good use of hovercraft. You have water for easy movement but you don't know whats under the surface so something that can rid on top but not get hung up on submerged cars/debris is nice.

    The skirts are really soft though. Fan boats are great in flooding and can, with enough speed, slide over the brief patches of dry pavement.

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  • jungleroomxjungleroomx Spicy Rudolph Registered User regular
    Chimera wrote: »
    Gyral wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.
    First time I've even seen I-40 not choked with traffic.

    Sadly looking at 40 out my office window here in OKC and it is dry and filled with awful traffic. :(

    Yeah but everything in Oklahoma is dry and filled with awful traffic.

    Bazing!

    Make. Time.
    Elvenshae
  • ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Chimera wrote: »
    Gyral wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.
    First time I've even seen I-40 not choked with traffic.

    Sadly looking at 40 out my office window here in OKC and it is dry and filled with awful traffic. :(

    Yeah but everything in Oklahoma is dry and filled with awful traffic.

    Bazing!

    Yeah well.... Your face is dry and full of traffic! D:<

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  • jungleroomxjungleroomx Spicy Rudolph Registered User regular
    edited September 2018
    Chimera wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Gyral wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.
    First time I've even seen I-40 not choked with traffic.

    Sadly looking at 40 out my office window here in OKC and it is dry and filled with awful traffic. :(

    Yeah but everything in Oklahoma is dry and filled with awful traffic.

    Bazing!

    Yeah well.... Your face is dry and full of traffic! D:<

    fair!

    (I lived in Lawton for 8 horrible years)

    jungleroomx on
    Make. Time.
    Lovely
  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    Are/were the volunteer boaters actually helpful in rescuing people during Harvey and Florence?

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  • ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Chimera wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Gyral wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.
    First time I've even seen I-40 not choked with traffic.

    Sadly looking at 40 out my office window here in OKC and it is dry and filled with awful traffic. :(

    Yeah but everything in Oklahoma is dry and filled with awful traffic.

    Bazing!

    Yeah well.... Your face is dry and full of traffic! D:<

    fair!

    (I lived in Lawton for 8 horrible years)

    Ewwwww... yeah that place suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucks. I don't mind the Wichita Mountains though and I have seen some nice storms around Lawton including one where the tire plant got hit by a tornado.

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  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    For certain definitions of nice, I suppose.

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  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    Chimera wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Gyral wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.
    First time I've even seen I-40 not choked with traffic.

    Sadly looking at 40 out my office window here in OKC and it is dry and filled with awful traffic. :(

    Yeah but everything in Oklahoma is dry and filled with awful traffic.

    Bazing!

    Yeah well.... Your face is dry and full of traffic! D:<

    fair!

    (I lived in Lawton for 8 horrible years)

    Ewwwww... yeah that place suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucks. I don't mind the Wichita Mountains though and I have seen some nice storms around Lawton including one where the tire plant got hit by a tornado.

    Would that be a tirenado?

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  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    kaid wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Gyral wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.
    First time I've even seen I-40 not choked with traffic.

    Sadly looking at 40 out my office window here in OKC and it is dry and filled with awful traffic. :(

    Yeah but everything in Oklahoma is dry and filled with awful traffic.

    Bazing!

    Yeah well.... Your face is dry and full of traffic! D:<

    fair!

    (I lived in Lawton for 8 horrible years)

    Ewwwww... yeah that place suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucks. I don't mind the Wichita Mountains though and I have seen some nice storms around Lawton including one where the tire plant got hit by a tornado.

    Would that be a tirenado?

    Sounds like that wasn't a goodyear for the plant...

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  • Blackhawk1313Blackhawk1313 Registered User regular
    Here’s hoping they didn’t make Firestones.

    ElvenshaeChimeraCaptain Inertiaspool32PolaritieJebus314never die
  • ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    There's a chance we may have a rare "medicane" form in the Mediterranean Sea this week. These rarely get much stronger than a tropical storm and are similar to a tropical or subtropical cyclone but don't usually last for long.

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  • JakarrdJakarrd In the belly of OklahomaRegistered User regular
    Here’s hoping they didn’t make Firestones.

    The plant was Nexen line for an upgrade, too.

    Greetings Starfighter! You have been recruited by the Star League to defend the frontier against Xur and the Ko-Dan Armada.

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  • jungleroomxjungleroomx Spicy Rudolph Registered User regular
    Chimera wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Gyral wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.
    First time I've even seen I-40 not choked with traffic.

    Sadly looking at 40 out my office window here in OKC and it is dry and filled with awful traffic. :(

    Yeah but everything in Oklahoma is dry and filled with awful traffic.

    Bazing!

    Yeah well.... Your face is dry and full of traffic! D:<

    fair!

    (I lived in Lawton for 8 horrible years)

    Ewwwww... yeah that place suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucks. I don't mind the Wichita Mountains though and I have seen some nice storms around Lawton including one where the tire plant got hit by a tornado.

    I spent a ton of time up in the Wichita Mountains for the Army.

    We got a few glimpses of some twisters living in the area, including a rain-wrapped twister (which we couldn't see, but we could feel it rumble the ground as it rolled on by).

    Make. Time.
  • ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Chimera wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Gyral wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.
    First time I've even seen I-40 not choked with traffic.

    Sadly looking at 40 out my office window here in OKC and it is dry and filled with awful traffic. :(

    Yeah but everything in Oklahoma is dry and filled with awful traffic.

    Bazing!

    Yeah well.... Your face is dry and full of traffic! D:<

    fair!

    (I lived in Lawton for 8 horrible years)

    Ewwwww... yeah that place suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucks. I don't mind the Wichita Mountains though and I have seen some nice storms around Lawton including one where the tire plant got hit by a tornado.

    I spent a ton of time up in the Wichita Mountains for the Army.

    We got a few glimpses of some twisters living in the area, including a rain-wrapped twister (which we couldn't see, but we could feel it rumble the ground as it rolled on by).

    Yeah? Wich ones?

    npAs9AI.png
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  • jungleroomxjungleroomx Spicy Rudolph Registered User regular
    Chimera wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Gyral wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.
    First time I've even seen I-40 not choked with traffic.

    Sadly looking at 40 out my office window here in OKC and it is dry and filled with awful traffic. :(

    Yeah but everything in Oklahoma is dry and filled with awful traffic.

    Bazing!

    Yeah well.... Your face is dry and full of traffic! D:<

    fair!

    (I lived in Lawton for 8 horrible years)

    Ewwwww... yeah that place suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucks. I don't mind the Wichita Mountains though and I have seen some nice storms around Lawton including one where the tire plant got hit by a tornado.

    I spent a ton of time up in the Wichita Mountains for the Army.

    We got a few glimpses of some twisters living in the area, including a rain-wrapped twister (which we couldn't see, but we could feel it rumble the ground as it rolled on by).

    Yeah? Wich ones?

    Nothing big. We saw one skip over the house the same day Moore got ravaged during that outbreak and a couple out west of town on 40 (Synder 2015 especially). We felt the Goodyear one in 2013.

    Make. Time.
  • LoisLaneLoisLane Registered User regular
    edited September 2018
    Gyral wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    0lwzofobhqh8.jpg

    This is not a river. This is I-40 in North Carolina right now.
    First time I've even seen I-40 not choked with traffic.

    So are gators an actual concern or has TV poisoned my mind. I am not ashamed if the question is dumb.

    LoisLane on
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