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[Natural Disasters] Talk About Your Heavy Weather Here

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    spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    Chimera wrote: »
    Athenor wrote: »
    I should note dad's alive, so I don't want to claim his callsign now. =P

    @Chimera

    Something I've always wondered about weather chasers - how much land do you cover? Last month I drove from central IL to Minneapolis/St. Paul, and it seemed to take FOREVER.. and yet I look at the great plains states or Wisconsin and I'm like.. Dang, that seems a lot of land to cover at 70mph.

    I have a map that shows everywhere I've been and most has been on chases! You can also see each hurricane and tornado I intercepted! :D

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1d_Kk7diu0MeDwCe2RGFbTwLZqkA&usp=sharing

    Hmm... I think I see a pattern emerging...


    sf0VjDnl.jpg

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    jungleroomxjungleroomx It's never too many graves, it's always not enough shovels Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    Athenor wrote: »
    I should note dad's alive, so I don't want to claim his callsign now. =P

    Chimera

    Something I've always wondered about weather chasers - how much land do you cover? Last month I drove from central IL to Minneapolis/St. Paul, and it seemed to take FOREVER.. and yet I look at the great plains states or Wisconsin and I'm like.. Dang, that seems a lot of land to cover at 70mph.

    lol

    jungleroomx on
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    AthenorAthenor Battle Hardened Optimist The Skies of HiigaraRegistered User regular
    BTW, don't forget to edit out batsignals as a courtesy to others. ;)

    And yes, I know I drive like a senior citizen.

    He/Him | "A boat is always safest in the harbor, but that’s not why we build boats." | "If you run, you gain one. If you move forward, you gain two." - Suletta Mercury, G-Witch
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    VeeveeVeevee WisconsinRegistered User regular
    Athenor wrote: »
    BTW, don't forget to edit out batsignals as a courtesy to others. ;)

    And yes, I know I drive like a senior citizen.

    Don't worry, I do too.

    Unless I'm in Chicago because fuck that place. I have an irrational desire to never be in Chicago, so the faster I get in the faster I can get out.

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Athenor wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Athenor wrote: »
    I should note dad's alive, so I don't want to claim his callsign now. =P

    Chimera

    Something I've always wondered about weather chasers - how much land do you cover? Last month I drove from central IL to Minneapolis/St. Paul, and it seemed to take FOREVER.. and yet I look at the great plains states or Wisconsin and I'm like.. Dang, that seems a lot of land to cover at 70mph.

    I have a map that shows everywhere I've been and most has been on chases! You can also see each hurricane and tornado I intercepted! :D

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1d_Kk7diu0MeDwCe2RGFbTwLZqkA&usp=sharing

    Heh. You weren't on I-94, which is good given its speed.

    Still, though, how much range would you say you can cover in a day? Like.. if you were going to chase the storm in Wisconsin last night, what would be the radius where it would make sense to do so? (trying to phrase this in a way to not ask where you are now. :) )

    Right now I am in Oklahoma City which is where I live. The longest marathon chase I ever completed was this....

    leb01da7ylf7.png

    ...this was done in a 36 hour time and involved me and another couple of chasers team driving, but I still did about 70% of the drive my self. We did bag a tornado in Indiana in Lebanon, but because we had to go out of our way to assist a chaser who had vehicle issues we missed the real prize of the day which was the Washington, IL tornado. My initial target was Peoria, IL and had we gone straight there we would have had that tornado. Storm motions that day were about 70mph and so since we were behind due to having to go up through Hanibal, MO to rescue that chaser we ended up being about 40min too late. To keep the day from being scrapped we had to drive about as fast as possible to catch back up with the storms and were able to catch a tornado in Indiana just in the nick of time a little before dark. Because at that time I did not chase full time we had to instantly turn around and head back to Tulsa. I worked all day, left work at 5pm, started driving to my chase target, never stopped to take a break outside of gassing up, caught the tornado, turned around, went back to Tulsa after dropping the stranded chaser back off in Columbia, MO, and then went straight back to Tulsa to make there just in time for me to be back at work. I haven't been so tired in my life!

    Here is another straight through drive I did once for a Hurricane...

    ijo3klovw3ez.png

    ...This was done by me and just one other person in 24 hours because we had just enough time to leave Tulsa and get to Buxton before they closed off the bridges to OBX.

    Here is another almost straight through drive on a chase. Last year I lived in Texas and had to drive straight from my house to Naples, FL to beat Hurricane Irma there. Other than a short pit stop in Panama City for a couple hour nap and supply run we made this drive straight through in one shot. Did the same thing on the way back, except we broke the drive up into two days...

    6qc3jbiur5x2.png

    ...These are just a few examples. When you stretch chases out beyond just one day the miles can be even longer and sometimes cover 2 to 3 times the distances that you see above.

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Chimera wrote: »
    Athenor wrote: »
    I should note dad's alive, so I don't want to claim his callsign now. =P

    @Chimera

    Something I've always wondered about weather chasers - how much land do you cover? Last month I drove from central IL to Minneapolis/St. Paul, and it seemed to take FOREVER.. and yet I look at the great plains states or Wisconsin and I'm like.. Dang, that seems a lot of land to cover at 70mph.

    I have a map that shows everywhere I've been and most has been on chases! You can also see each hurricane and tornado I intercepted! :D

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1d_Kk7diu0MeDwCe2RGFbTwLZqkA&usp=sharing

    Hmm... I think I see a pattern emerging...


    sf0VjDnl.jpg

    I may or may not have said that before jumping out of the car into hail or when driving towards a tornado. >_>

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    Athenor wrote: »
    I should note dad's alive, so I don't want to claim his callsign now. =P

    Chimera

    Something I've always wondered about weather chasers - how much land do you cover? Last month I drove from central IL to Minneapolis/St. Paul, and it seemed to take FOREVER.. and yet I look at the great plains states or Wisconsin and I'm like.. Dang, that seems a lot of land to cover at 70mph.

    lol

    I neeeeeeeeeeeeever break the speed when driving. <_<;;


    I mean like okay maybe a little... >_>;;

    Chimera on
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    AthenorAthenor Battle Hardened Optimist The Skies of HiigaraRegistered User regular
    Funny you should mention the Washington tornado. That's my hometown (well, 1 town over).

    Peoria never gets hit. Until that day. Holy shit. I wasn't in the area, but I drove through it a couple weeks later. It was... *Shudder* I still have haunting nightmares about it.

    He/Him | "A boat is always safest in the harbor, but that’s not why we build boats." | "If you run, you gain one. If you move forward, you gain two." - Suletta Mercury, G-Witch
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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Athenor wrote: »
    Funny you should mention the Washington tornado. That's my hometown (well, 1 town over).

    Peoria never gets hit. Until that day. Holy shit. I wasn't in the area, but I drove through it a couple weeks later. It was... *Shudder* I still have haunting nightmares about it.

    Oh hey, I used to work for Caterpillar and so I was in Peoria a lot!

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    Radars do a lot more than just show us storms, they are also great for showing off boundaries! In this case, you can see the cold front passing through my home right now. I left the office in air that was 81*F and got home to air that is in the mid 60's!

    x4bkl9udxh8h.png
    kfdry4585l22.png

    In this image, you can see the front drawn in and two stations that are just 6 miles apart showing an 13*F difference! Temps are dropping fast behind the front and it finally feels like fall again behind the front which until this evening had been stuck just north of OKC allowing us to get in the 80s while just north of the metro it was in the 70s. All day long the front had kinda danced moving slightly south and north today and tomorrow it will move back north of the city to allow us to hit 85 again before then moving south and then back north again through the weekend. Even now the front is stalling out again and first thing in the morning it will race back north. This dance can be seen on the weekly planner by the NWS for my area in the daily high temps which keep bouncing back and forth between the low 70's and almost 80.

    nol9lxafu9f5.png





    Chimera on
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    AthenorAthenor Battle Hardened Optimist The Skies of HiigaraRegistered User regular
    Wall clouds are insane. I once was caught out on the Illinois River when one swept overhead. While our plains are not as drastically flat as out West, you can still see a storm coming from a ways away.

    He/Him | "A boat is always safest in the harbor, but that’s not why we build boats." | "If you run, you gain one. If you move forward, you gain two." - Suletta Mercury, G-Witch
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    jungleroomxjungleroomx It's never too many graves, it's always not enough shovels Registered User regular
    Athenor wrote: »
    Wall clouds are insane. I once was caught out on the Illinois River when one swept overhead. While our plains are not as drastically flat as out West, you can still see a storm coming from a ways away.

    Wall clouds are amazing. So are mammatus clouds. I saw both quite often in Oklahoma.

    We sometimes get rolling clouds up in Nebraska, which are cool as well.

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    Athenor wrote: »
    Wall clouds are insane. I once was caught out on the Illinois River when one swept overhead. While our plains are not as drastically flat as out West, you can still see a storm coming from a ways away.

    Are you sure it was a wall cloud and not a shelf cloud?

    Red circle is a wall cloud, blue circle is a shelf cloud.

    0fxragrqsbj7.png
    9ampuwiylegh.png

    Chimera on
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    RadiationRadiation Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    Oh hey, @Chimera any good spots for food in OKC? I'm going to be there for work in 2 weeks. Staying near Tinker, but have rental car.
    I miss Del Taco as we dont have it out East.

    Radiation on
    PSN: jfrofl
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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Radiation wrote: »
    Oh hey, @Chimera any good spots for food in OKC? I'm going to be there for work in 2 weeks. Staying near Tinker, but have rental car.
    I miss Del Taco as we dont have it out East.

    Give me types of food you like and I can give you a rundown!

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    So the Central American Monsoonal Gyre has, as is common in October, spawned a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean Ocean. Tropical Storm Michael has officially formed and is taking aim on the Gulf Coast of the US. Right now I am expecting a repeat of Nate in terms of a fast-moving cyclone slamming into the gulf coast as a category 1 hurricane with highly sheared effects and localized high surge values on the east side of the storm.

    joq8zib0swdd.png

    People living from NOLA to Florida's Big Bend need to be getting ready for this storm which will arrive in just 3 days time during Wednesday afternoon. Some models want to make Michael stronger than a cat 1 at landfall but I do not have faith in this. I think we see a weak, sheared cat 1 at landfall that quickly spins down as it moves onto land. None the less even a category 1 storm can have devastating effects as Florence showed us this year.

    My current forecast: HURRICANE NATE 2.0

    Chimera on
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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    I am becoming increasingly worried about Michael. It is beating forecasted intensity guidance and already a category 1 storm, something it shouldn't have become until tomorrow evening. At this rate of intensification, it will surely be a category 2 storm at landfall if not stronger. The hurricane will also be strengthening all the way up to landfall meaning it will hold together for longer once it moves on land.

    IF YOU LIVE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE:
    • NOW is the time to start boarding up windows and stocking up on supplies.
    • Begin preparing for evacuations and know what zones you are in.
    • If you live on a barrier island you might as well beat the traffic and leave TONIGHT!
    • Fill up your gas cans and be ready for the worst.
    • Reschedule any plans you have from Wednesday through Friday.

    DO NOT TAKE THIS STORM LIGHTLY! The topography of the coastline, paired with the fact that the storm will be making landfall at a 90-degree angle to the coast means that this storm's surge will outperform a storm of its intensity. The bulk of this will occur on the east side of the eye's path. Watch the forecasts closely and remember that hurricanes can wobble as they approach, so if you live close to the west side of where the eye is forecasted to make landfall you need to treat it as if you are on the east side and evacuate if you're in a surge prone area.

    Once on shore, this storm will quickly race off inland so we should not see Florence levels of rain and freshwater flooding.

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    1f644u3ntqiu.png

    I was watching the vis-sat this morning for Hurricane Michael and I noticed its starting to clear out a bit in the eye and you can see strong convection firing all around the eyewall so I went over to the CIMSS's MIMIC page to look at the microwave imagery and just as I suspected the eye of the storm is organizing rapidly and it is HUGE!

    yhcwjtortqjb.png

    This is not good news for those in the path. As the CDO (central dense overcast region) of the storm gets better organized and then the storm moves over the loop current I would not be surprised to see this storm undergo rapid intensification as it fully crosses into the GOM (Gulf of Mexico).

    b30ueoue5t97.png

    In the image above the CDO is circled in blue, and the eye's clearing is circled in red. Right now the heaviest convection is on the north side of the eye but I expect that by lunch today that deep convection will fully encircle the eye.

    mvw1k476cpfr.png

    The graphic above is of the loop current, where warm water extends from the surface to much deeper than normal and the temps are hotter than average and harder to cool with upwelling. The orange area circled is the part of the loop that the CDO will be over. You can see for a large portion of its life in the GOM will be spent over the loop as it moves towards Florida. In addition to that shear is going to be much weaker than originally forecast.

    IF YOU LIVE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PENNINSULA YOU NEED TO BE GETTING READY FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE. THIS WILL BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY 3 AT LANDFALL.

    Chimera on
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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Latest update from NHC agrees with my thoughts. The 10am update just came out a bit late and they are now also calling for a category 3 hurricane at landfall.

    eupx5afo81m7.png

    Yellow highlighted area is the forecast for winds at landfall near Panama City, FL.

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    XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    jesus, look at that path

    SC and NC really could use the rain =/

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    jesus, look at that path

    SC and NC really could use the rain =/

    Luckily the storm is being picked up by a trough as it hits so it will blast across the states super fast and that will lessen the impact of the rain.

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    It is very important to note, that when trying to put into perspective how strong this storm is, that Hurricane Ivan was a fast-moving, weakening category 3 storm at landfall. In contrast, Michael will be at least a strengthening category 3 storm at landfall. Storms that are strengthening usually do worse damage as they move on-shore since that means it takes longer for them to halt the strengthening process and then wind down.

    In the United States alone, Hurricane Ivan killed 54 people (25 directly) and did $20.5 billion in damage, making it the 9th costliest hurricane in the US on record.

    7j4r4gr4hk3x.png

    Chimera on
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    XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    lot of strong hurricanes in the past two decades

    4 in the last two years

    .... probably nothing

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Interesting side note, each of the highlighted storms I was in.

    h1kf3nnv6lyi.png

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
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    tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    lot of strong hurricanes in the past two decades

    4 in the last two years

    .... probably nothing

    Hurricanes in the last two decades likely is primarily due to the development of large cities closer and closer to the coasts, building fancier and fancier houses on flood plains, and actively buldozing barrier sand dunes and so on. Human caused, but not strongly climate change related, more to do with us just being idiots about obeying well known and well understood construction, drainage and management standards. The ones in the last two years are no question climate related, certainly made stronger than they would have been.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    lot of strong hurricanes in the past two decades

    4 in the last two years

    .... probably nothing

    Hurricanes in the last two decades likely is primarily due to the development of large cities closer and closer to the coasts, building fancier and fancier houses on flood plains, and actively buldozing barrier sand dunes and so on. Human caused, but not strongly climate change related, more to do with us just being idiots about obeying well known and well understood construction, drainage and management standards. The ones in the last two years are no question climate related, certainly made stronger than they would have been.

    That does affect how much monetary damage each storm does, but it has little to do with the strength of said storms at landfall. Unlike the Enhanced-Fujita Scale which is a damage scale, the Saffir-Simpson Scale measures the actual intensity of the storm and not the damage it did.

    It is also hard to pinpoint the effects climate change has had on an individual storm or storm season. It just doesn't work like that. The trend is where you can notice the effect climate change is having.

    Chimera on
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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    To better explain what I meant in that last post about how climate change cant be blamed for individual storms or seasons, watch this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBdxDFpDp_k

    Chimera on
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    VeeveeVeevee WisconsinRegistered User regular
    edited October 2018
    And this once again is where science just cant deal with humans foibles. What you are saying to a person inclined to discount climate change is that if the weather cant be blamed on climate change then what is the big fuss about climate change? If we cant point to Harvey or Florence or other historic rainfall events around the country in the last year as being evidence of the effects of climate change, then nothing will ever be done about climate change.

    Veevee on
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    EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    We have a climate change thread though, right? For those of us planning on how to prepare for another hit, that sort of talk isn't particularly helpful.

    I'm sending an away team of my office to a conference on St. Pete Beach for wed-sun, the conference folks are refusing to cancel or take precautions... which may be fine if the hurricane follows ~exactly~ this course. Any deviation and its gonna be bad news.

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Veevee wrote: »
    And this once again is where science just cant deal with humans foibles. What you are saying to a person inclined to discount climate change is that if the weather cant be blamed on climate change then what is the big fuss about climate change? If we cant point to Harvey or Florence or other historic rainfall events around the country in the last year as being evidence of the effects of climate change, then nothing will ever be done about climate change.

    You cant point to thr individual storm but you can point to their veracity of all storms combined in a decade.
    Enc wrote: »
    We have a climate change thread though, right? For those of us planning on how to prepare for another hit, that sort of talk isn't particularly helpful.

    I'm sending an away team of my office to a conference on St. Pete Beach for wed-sun, the conference folks are refusing to cancel or take precautions... which may be fine if the hurricane follows ~exactly~ this course. Any deviation and its gonna be bad news.

    This will likely be a large storm, and it has been trending east of the forecast a bit.

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    JakarrdJakarrd In the belly of OklahomaRegistered User regular
    Seeing all these hurricanes reminds me that around Tulsa, OK (my home) I have barely seen any tornadoes pop up. I keep expecting some weather shifts when those hurricanes hit landfall followed by tendrils of destruction.

    Greetings Starfighter! You have been recruited by the Star League to defend the frontier against Xur and the Ko-Dan Armada.

    76561197990097905.png
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    EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    Chimera wrote: »
    Veevee wrote: »
    And this once again is where science just cant deal with humans foibles. What you are saying to a person inclined to discount climate change is that if the weather cant be blamed on climate change then what is the big fuss about climate change? If we cant point to Harvey or Florence or other historic rainfall events around the country in the last year as being evidence of the effects of climate change, then nothing will ever be done about climate change.

    You cant point to thr individual storm but you can point to their veracity of all storms combined in a decade.
    Enc wrote: »
    We have a climate change thread though, right? For those of us planning on how to prepare for another hit, that sort of talk isn't particularly helpful.

    I'm sending an away team of my office to a conference on St. Pete Beach for wed-sun, the conference folks are refusing to cancel or take precautions... which may be fine if the hurricane follows ~exactly~ this course. Any deviation and its gonna be bad news.

    This will likely be a large storm, and it has been trending east of the forecast a bit.

    One of our office is part of the admin of the conference as has been urging them to cancel the days for wed and thurs at the very least, the others (not from Florida or anywhere near a coastline in North America), are saying this is all very silly and that everything will be fine. Which, as someone who knows downtown St. Pete... is not accurate if it deviates at all.

    On the brighter side, this was shared with us all which is fairly accurate in a dark humor way:

    e4tlkn4f5rkg.png

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    EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    Also, latest updates say storm surge in the panhandle is expected to exceed 9 feet and go as far as 6 miles inland in some lowlying areas.

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Jakarrd wrote: »
    Seeing all these hurricanes reminds me that around Tulsa, OK (my home) I have barely seen any tornadoes pop up. I keep expecting some weather shifts when those hurricanes hit landfall followed by tendrils of destruction.

    Hey! I was born in Tulsa and spent part of my childhood there! :D

    While tomorrow there is a chance at severe weather in Tulsa (similar to last night's storms), a hurricane that far east with a path that will quickly take it over Georgia and the Carolinas will have little effect if any at all on Oklahoma.

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    Also, latest updates say storm surge in the panhandle is expected to exceed 9 feet and go as far as 6 miles inland in some lowlying areas.

    @Enc, source?

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    EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    edited October 2018
    @Chimera
    NOAA:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153129.shtml?inundation#contents

    The inundation map is showing reeeeaaally far inland for areas of Taylor and Jefferson counties.

    Update: looking at the map, those are mostly State Forest areas, so human impact isn't too bad. But the salt water intrusion could cause decades of damage to the area if it really goes that far inland.

    Enc on
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    Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    lot of strong hurricanes in the past two decades

    4 in the last two years

    .... probably nothing

    Andrew sitting there all alone...

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    kaidkaid Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    Also, latest updates say storm surge in the panhandle is expected to exceed 9 feet and go as far as 6 miles inland in some lowlying areas.

    Given how flat florida is once stuff gets moving inland there is not a ton of topography to stop it.

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    nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Happens when you build your state on a festering swamp

This discussion has been closed.