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[Natural Disasters] Talk About Your Heavy Weather Here

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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    PR is definitely getting hit right now, but not as bad as previously projected. A lot of rain is coming down, but right now the winds are comparatively low. You definitely don't want to be in a blue roof shelter right now, though.

  • NitsuaNitsua Gloucester, VARegistered User regular
    Mill wrote: »
    At least PR isn't getting hit. The sad thing is we have what, almost two more full hurricane seasons with the idiot chief at the helm, so plenty of chances for him to create himself another Katrina that can't be hand waved away because idiots don't believe it's part of the US. Given how things are going climate wise, I'm not at all optimistic that we luck out avoid having a major hurricane hit a heavily urbanized areas that is woefully prepared to deal with such a storm. ><

    With the news yesterday that a part of FEMA's budget has been siphoned by ICE, this admin getting it's own Katrina is looking more likely by the day.

    It also makes me wonder why FEMA is part of the Departmemt of Homeland Security. Having disaster response and immigration control under the same group makes absolutely no sense.

  • Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    After DHS was created, they just kind of started dumping departments into it because after all the obvious ones, it was still very lightweight.

    Basically, DHS was unnecessary. It caused a bunch of interdepartmental confusion that still isn't resolved.

    You're muckin' with a G!

    Do not engage the Watermelons.
  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    edited August 2019
    This administration had it's own Katrina(s) with Irma and Maria. Nothing changed. Nothing will change.

    That said, I'm hesitant to worry on that scale with Dorian. Even a c3 isn't the same level of threat that Katrina was. Florida is much better equipped than most states to weather these storms as we have very, very high hurricane rating requirements on construction and statewide we have pretty solid flood mitigation, with some notable gaps here and there.

    On it's current path, the main places I worry about are the Flagler County and North Brevard County lowlands along the St. Johns basin, places like Deland and Deltona, where flooding can be common with heavy rains.

    And my own property, obviously, because of course. But as an area where I am is pretty safe from flooding and winds comparatively speaking.

    Enc on
  • BullheadBullhead Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    This administration had it's own Katrina(s) with Irma and Maria. Nothing changed. Nothing will change.

    That said, I'm hesitant to worry on that scale with Dorian. Even a c3 isn't the same level of threat that Katrina was. Florida is much better equipped than most states to weather these storms as we have very, very high hurricane rating requirements on construction and statewide we have pretty solid flood mitigation, with some notable gaps here and there.

    On it's current path, the main places I worry about are the Flagler County and North Brevard County lowlands along the St. Johns basin, places like Deland and Deltona, where flooding can be common with heavy rains.

    And my own property, obviously, because of course. But as an area where I am is pretty safe from flooding and winds comparatively speaking.

    If it comes south like the new euro is showing the nature coast is gonna have a bunch of rivers flood too from rain.

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  • Ear3nd1lEar3nd1l Eärendil the Mariner, father of Elrond Registered User regular
    The new Euro puts this right over my house... sigh

  • MillMill Registered User regular
    edited August 2019
    Maria got written off by a bunch of idiots as not mattering because they don't understand that PR is part the US and that was a major fuckup on Trump's part. I'm trying to remember exactly how bad Irma was, but I want to say it did quite create a situation like Maria or Irma. I know Irma was bad.

    Mill on
  • Ear3nd1lEar3nd1l Eärendil the Mariner, father of Elrond Registered User regular
    edited August 2019
    Maria devastated PR. Irma did millions in damage in Florida because it basically ran north/south through the entire state. The Keys, Naples, Imokolee, Lehigh Acres, and a few other areas took the brunt of it before it started to weaken. The thing that kept Irma from being even worse is that the western side of the storm got shredded by the mountains of Cuba before it headed north. That western side went right over the town I live in and we got off easy. I only had a couple of trees down and no damage to my house. A lot of the older homes in town had roof damage, but not anywhere on the scale of the areas further south.

    Ear3nd1l on
  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Yeah, that's what I was thinking, was that Irma's damage was spread out enough that it was kind of hard for Trump's brand of maleficence to be easily identified. Bush got hammered on Katrina because it was pretty fucking obvious that his administration really dropped the ball, given the level of damage just in New Orleans. Trump would have gotten hammered on Maria if more people realized that PR isn't a foreign country, it's a US territory and much of the issue came down to Trump improperly running things.

    I'm not looking forward to when we get a ton of damage and this administration is like "we don't have any money for FEMA because we looted their coffers to fund ICE and CBE!" Granted, that might get DHS shit canned real quick.

  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    They keep updating the models to essentially just plow right into the middle of the state. It seems like a very weird track, where it's going out of its way to avoid Cuba and the DR, then cutting hard east to west

  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    140a0eca-9d22-40ab-9162-d9b2608ac7a0_750x422.png

    There's a big high pressure area to the north that increasingly looks like it's not going to move out of the way in time. As I understand it, hurricanes don't actually have their own inertia but are just traveling along with the wind direction, along for the ride and blowing wherever they're sent (or stalling out if the winds aren't blowing). In this case, it means the winds can't go north so the hurricane won't curve north, or that's how it's looking right now.

  • schussschuss Registered User regular
    Did they misspell trough there?

  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    schuss wrote: »
    Did they misspell trough there?

    Nope! Looks like that National Weather Service approved.

  • ThawmusThawmus +Jackface Registered User regular
    Huh, I'm guessing there's some sort of "We wanted to stop quibbling over the spelling and just get the info out" reason behind that

    Twitch: Thawmus83
  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    Looks like the heart of the storm has shifted a bit south of Orlando/Kissimmee region, and is lining up to take a run at Lakeland.

  • LovelyLovely Registered User regular
    ffffffffffffffffffffffffuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck.


    ..... n-not that I live near there >_> . Of course not. haha...ha........ ha ;_;

    sig.gif
  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    edited August 2019
    It's still very unclear. The cone of uncertainty is huge. Irma wasn't supposed to cut right up the middle of the state, but it changed direction at pretty literally the last minute

    Javen on
  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    edited August 2019
    Yeah all of this is reaaasonable conjecture. Assume its coming straight for you until you are happily proven otherwise.

    Or end up staring down the eyewall with the smug certainty that at least you called it right.

    ~lifts broom~ NOW COME AT ME STORM!

    Please don't come at me tho.

    Enc on
  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Central OhioRegistered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    Yeah all of this is reaaasonable conjecture. Assume its coming straight for you until you are happily proven otherwise.

    Or end up staring down the eyewall with the smug certainty that at least you called it right.

    ~lifts broom~ NOW COME AT ME STORM!

    Please don't come at me tho.

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  • VeeveeVeevee WisconsinRegistered User regular
    Also, with the way the predictions are going I would recommend to expect this to be a much stronger storm than currently predicted. Two days ago it was a weak cat 1 at landfall in florida, yesterday a strong cat 2 at landfall, today I heard it will be a strong cat 3 by tonight, and it still has a lot of very warm water to go over in the Bahamas.

    Anyone have a map showing current water temps compared to the average for this time of year?

  • BullheadBullhead Registered User regular
    Veevee wrote: »
    Also, with the way the predictions are going I would recommend to expect this to be a much stronger storm than currently predicted. Two days ago it was a weak cat 1 at landfall in florida, yesterday a strong cat 2 at landfall, today I heard it will be a strong cat 3 by tonight, and it still has a lot of very warm water to go over in the Bahamas.

    Anyone have a map showing current water temps compared to the average for this time of year?

    It's now expected to just barely be a cat 4 at landfall, up from a strong 3. The saving grace so far is its not a large storm so the hurricane force winds won't extend very far.

    96058.png?1619393207
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    I don't have temperature difference maps but I did find something probably more useful, measurements of oceanic heat content in the area:

    ohc-dorian-18Z-8.28.19-835px.jpg

    There's a lot of energy in the water. Turns out the way they've been measuring it is rather neat: submarine drones.





    Brad Panovich is a meteorologist in North Carolina.

  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    it looks like it keeps inching south, coming to land right around port st lucie

  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    The Euro Model has the eye just north of Miami, which is part of what is shifting it south. A lot of the models have it hitting farther north.

  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    edited August 2019
    anoma.8.26.2019.gif
    https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
    Sea surface temp anomaly is what you’re looking for.

    It looks fairly average this year

    VishNub on
  • AthenorAthenor Battle Hardened Optimist The Skies of HiigaraRegistered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    I don't have temperature difference maps but I did find something probably more useful, measurements of oceanic heat content in the area:

    ohc-dorian-18Z-8.28.19-835px.jpg

    There's a lot of energy in the water. Turns out the way they've been measuring it is rather neat: submarine drones.





    Brad Panovich is a meteorologist in North Carolina.

    Ever stop to think how badass meteorologists are?

  • Ear3nd1lEar3nd1l Eärendil the Mariner, father of Elrond Registered User regular
    69133032_10157270342567367_5314033658040942592_n.png?_nc_cat=1&_nc_oc=AQlMcM3h0rLftP30dbsEReWiDP2o7Ghz31eeJjwj8bycUHxXYIRxF3APmA_CkYI1yXw&_nc_ht=scontent-mia3-1.xx&oh=65e0abc35a2775a2d3bb1c4691cd05b2&oe=5DC854B7

  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor changed Registered User regular
    edited August 2019
    Ear3nd1l wrote: »
    69133032_10157270342567367_5314033658040942592_n.png?_nc_cat=1&_nc_oc=AQlMcM3h0rLftP30dbsEReWiDP2o7Ghz31eeJjwj8bycUHxXYIRxF3APmA_CkYI1yXw&_nc_ht=scontent-mia3-1.xx&oh=65e0abc35a2775a2d3bb1c4691cd05b2&oe=5DC854B7

    As a panhandle resident, I can't help but feel a little hurt that South/Central would just leave us with Alabama and skip town.

    ArbitraryDescriptor on
  • jungleroomxjungleroomx It's never too many graves, it's always not enough shovels Registered User regular
    Ear3nd1l wrote: »
    69133032_10157270342567367_5314033658040942592_n.png?_nc_cat=1&_nc_oc=AQlMcM3h0rLftP30dbsEReWiDP2o7Ghz31eeJjwj8bycUHxXYIRxF3APmA_CkYI1yXw&_nc_ht=scontent-mia3-1.xx&oh=65e0abc35a2775a2d3bb1c4691cd05b2&oe=5DC854B7

    Yeah that's why I don't wear really tight pants anymore

  • MillMill Registered User regular
    So if this thing buzzes through the center of FL, how likely is it to stay intact enough to make it to the gulf?

  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor changed Registered User regular
    edited August 2019
    Mill wrote: »
    So if this thing buzzes through the center of FL, how likely is it to stay intact enough to make it to the gulf?

    I'm gonna guess "sufficiently"

    I can't remember the last time a storm actually broke itself on South/Central Florida. It's a sand bar with a swamp in the middle.

    Hell, didn't Ivan tear through the Eastern US, clip back across Central Florida as an L, and slam into Texas as a TC of some description?

    ArbitraryDescriptor on
  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    edited August 2019
    Depends on how fast it goes. Most models still have it slowing down significantly on/near the coast, but the uncertainly is still pretty high.

    a5ehren on
  • BullheadBullhead Registered User regular
    Ear3nd1l wrote: »
    69133032_10157270342567367_5314033658040942592_n.png?_nc_cat=1&_nc_oc=AQlMcM3h0rLftP30dbsEReWiDP2o7Ghz31eeJjwj8bycUHxXYIRxF3APmA_CkYI1yXw&_nc_ht=scontent-mia3-1.xx&oh=65e0abc35a2775a2d3bb1c4691cd05b2&oe=5DC854B7

    As a panhandle resident, I can't help but feel a little hurt that South/Central would just leave us with Alabama and skip town.

    I mean it's commonly referred to as Lower Alabama, so.... :P

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  • Ear3nd1lEar3nd1l Eärendil the Mariner, father of Elrond Registered User regular
    Bullhead wrote: »
    Ear3nd1l wrote: »
    69133032_10157270342567367_5314033658040942592_n.png?_nc_cat=1&_nc_oc=AQlMcM3h0rLftP30dbsEReWiDP2o7Ghz31eeJjwj8bycUHxXYIRxF3APmA_CkYI1yXw&_nc_ht=scontent-mia3-1.xx&oh=65e0abc35a2775a2d3bb1c4691cd05b2&oe=5DC854B7

    As a panhandle resident, I can't help but feel a little hurt that South/Central would just leave us with Alabama and skip town.

    I mean it's commonly referred to as Lower Alabama, so.... :P

    I'll also accept "Floribama".

  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    Even projections that have it powering up to a 4, downgrade it pretty significantly once the eye makes landfall, and down to a 1 by the time it's even halfway across the state. If it can last then it can power up again, but it also might be broken up by that time

  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    edited August 2019
    No real changes throughout the afternoon, except maybe the general model was nudged a bit further south. The eye is now very close to touching the larger Bahaman islands.

    Javen on
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    edited August 2019
    Okay, a lot of potential tracks so far have been putting Dorian making landfall on the Space Coast, like right directly on Cape Canaveral. How hurricane-proofed are the launch sites, all those facilities, etc. if this should come to pass? Could they also handle substantial flooding if Dorian stalls out on the coast there like some models are starting to predict now?

    Mayabird on
  • redxredx I(x)=2(x)+1 whole numbersRegistered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    Okay, a lot of potential tracks so far have been putting Dorian making landfall on the Space Coast, like right directly on Cape Canaveral. How hurricane-proofed are the launch sites, all those facilities, etc. if this should come to pass? Could they also handle substantial flooding if Dorian stalls out on the coast there like some models are starting to predict now?

    Ehh... a lot of it is hardened against "overpressure events" like stuff blowing up and shuttles and rockets breaking the sound barrier as they come in for landings. And, well, it's florida and they have a pretty big budget. So fairly. But they also have a lot of sensitive equipment and the vehicle assembly building which is HUGE and Hollow and has flat sides. And a big door.

    Substantial flooding could be an issue because it's not that far above sea level, and surrounded by swamps. And that's not accounting for storm surge.

    But Dorian is maybe going to be a Cat 4? Which probably towards the higher end of things they planned for, and higher than anything I can remember making a direct landfall.

    They moistly come out at night, moistly.
  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025521.shtml?cone#contents the latest NOAA path projection

    still very much subject to change, but the cone has slowly been drifting south all day, and looks like it might travel straight over the northern bahaman islands

  • TNTrooperTNTrooper Registered User regular
    Can this hurricane just wreck one of Trump's golf courses so we can dump like a trillion bucks into FEMA and just specify that the money can't be used on property owned by POTUS or its family or transferred to other departments.

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