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[Australian & NZ Politics] Australia Decided. Hm.

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Posts

  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    4$ an hour on top of the meager unemployment benefit, whilst the employer is paid $1000 and doesn't actually pay the worker anything.

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  • HeatwaveHeatwave Come, now, and walk the path of explosions with me!Registered User regular
    Having been on Newstart in the past, I'd seriously consider killing myself if I ever had to do it again.

    Just a horrible, useless experience, where you don't learn anything useful and while you're doing it everyone thinks you're a lazy piece of shit who doesn't want to work.

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  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    edited August 27
    Either way the jobless rate goes down and I don't have words to express the hole in my heart.

    Prison labour without the prisons

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  • -Loki--Loki- Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining. Registered User regular
    Heatwave wrote: »
    Having been on Newstart in the past, I'd seriously consider killing myself if I ever had to do it again.

    Just a horrible, useless experience, where you don't learn anything useful and while you're doing it everyone thinks you're a lazy piece of shit who doesn't want to work.

    Yeah, I was on it for about a year and a half straight, trying to get work coming out of TAFE. I was glad when I was offered work for the dole or whatever they called it simply for something to do.

  • Giggles_FunsworthGiggles_Funsworth Paranoiac Bay Area SprawlRegistered User regular
    Hey, uh, quick question in here for the New Zealanders. Do y'all really view less than 1% of the firearms in your country being turned in as the amnesty program going well?

  • chrishallett83chrishallett83 Hi! Registered User regular
    Hey, uh, quick question in here for the New Zealanders. Do y'all really view less than 1% of the firearms in your country being turned in as the amnesty program going well?

    That question is more loaded than most guns, great job!

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  • AegeriAegeri Plateau of LengRegistered User regular
    Hey, uh, quick question in here for the New Zealanders. Do y'all really view less than 1% of the firearms in your country being turned in as the amnesty program going well?

    Yes - because it depends on the types of weapons being turned in. Especially when they are largely the ones sold under problematic laws allowing people to buy spree shooter like assault weapons.

    That got fixed, because we did something about it. Because New Zealands government actually gave a shit.

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  • VivixenneVivixenne Remember your training, and we'll get through this just fine. Registered User regular
    edited August 27
    Also, the way guns are treated in NZ is fundamentally different to the way they are treated in the US.

    Kiwis just don’t cite self-protection as the reason they own a gun. Thus, the types of guns being turned in matters a lot more than the volume of guns being surrendered. Carrying while going about your day just... isn’t common.

    EDIT: oh oops I just noticed they were banned! Ah well.

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  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    Guy is asking and temp-banned because he sees weapons training and open carrying as a necessity to protect minority groups from being soft targets to stochastic terrorism.
    This being in America's south though.

    He was wondering whether the low % of guns returned reflected white supremists not being willing to voluntarily disarm. Rather than I guess a low proportion of NZ guns being either covered by the new buyback laws or not bought for specific hunting/farming purposes.

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  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    discrider wrote: »
    Guy is asking and temp-banned because he sees weapons training and open carrying as a necessity to protect minority groups from being soft targets to stochastic terrorism.
    This being in America's south though.

    He was wondering whether the low % of guns returned reflected white supremists not being willing to voluntarily disarm. Rather than I guess a low proportion of NZ guns being either covered by the new buyback laws or not bought for specific hunting/farming purposes.

    Your guess is pretty much spot on. New Zealand, like Australia, despite being cited as having "gun bans", actually have a fairly large number of legally purchased guns (mostly longarms) that aren't particularly onerous to get. Pistols are more highly regulated.

    The difference is, for the most part (the loophole the Christchurch shooter exploited being an exception), most guns are of the hunting/farming nature. Either shotguns, or single or limited capacity bolt action rifles. Semi-automatics if you can show a need.

    We don't generally permit guns for self-defense, or guns that don't have a more legitimate purpose (ie, the AR-15 style guns that clearly aren't hunting/farming weapons).

    So, while 10K out of 1.2M doesn't seem like much, given most of those 1.2M likely have legitimate purpose, it's probably a decent chunk of the now "illegitimate" weapons being removed.

    Is kind of like that if Volkswagons are now banned, and then arguing that it's not effective because only 10K cars out of 1.2M on the road have been removed. It's being ignorant of the numbers in question.

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  • GvzbgulGvzbgul Ask me about my scrotalist agenda Registered User regular
    Probably a better discussion for the Christchurch thread. I was waiting for a anniversary or significant date/event and was gonna make a post about it.

    But the gist is that semi autos are a small minority of overall guns. But even if you assume that every gun that has been handed in was a prohibited weapon the numbers are still quite low.

    While there was an initial surge of hand ins things have slowed down as some of the processes are not set up yet and firearm owners are waiting on those.

    Eg. There is the option of having your gun modified to be legal by an approved gunsmith. But last I heard no gunsmiths have been approved (in July, i would expect that there are some approved now, but i also can't find recent info using a quick websearch). Which is a shame as it seems like a good option for everyone. Owners keep their gun, and the cost of converting is much cheaper than the cost of the whole firearm ($300 vs $1000+ which keeps the government happy too).

    Some complained that the buyback was too cheap but everyone i know has been very happy with the compensation. But they are collectors of historical firearms and those only ever go up in price. Maybe its different with other kinds? I was quite surprised to read that the buyback was slower than expected as i have only heard praise for the compensation, which in a lot of cases is over the cost of the gun/parts.

    It was a little disappointing that only licensed gun owners will recieve compensation. Part of the rationalisation of the buyback was that it would get guns out of the hands of crimimals. But if there's no incentive for criminals to hand their guns in (aside from amnesty) then i doubt they'll be handing guns in.

    I expect that the amnesty will be extended past Dec. It makes sense given that some of the processes arent fully implemented yet.

  • MortiousMortious The Nightmare Begins Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    Gvzbgul wrote: »
    Probably a better discussion for the Christchurch thread. I was waiting for a anniversary or significant date/event and was gonna make a post about it.

    But the gist is that semi autos are a small minority of overall guns. But even if you assume that every gun that has been handed in was a prohibited weapon the numbers are still quite low.

    While there was an initial surge of hand ins things have slowed down as some of the processes are not set up yet and firearm owners are waiting on those.

    Eg. There is the option of having your gun modified to be legal by an approved gunsmith. But last I heard no gunsmiths have been approved (in July, i would expect that there are some approved now, but i also can't find recent info using a quick websearch). Which is a shame as it seems like a good option for everyone. Owners keep their gun, and the cost of converting is much cheaper than the cost of the whole firearm ($300 vs $1000+ which keeps the government happy too).

    Some complained that the buyback was too cheap but everyone i know has been very happy with the compensation. But they are collectors of historical firearms and those only ever go up in price. Maybe its different with other kinds? I was quite surprised to read that the buyback was slower than expected as i have only heard praise for the compensation, which in a lot of cases is over the cost of the gun/parts.

    It was a little disappointing that only licensed gun owners will recieve compensation. Part of the rationalisation of the buyback was that it would get guns out of the hands of crimimals. But if there's no incentive for criminals to hand their guns in (aside from amnesty) then i doubt they'll be handing guns in.

    I expect that the amnesty will be extended past Dec. It makes sense given that some of the processes arent fully implemented yet.

    I think if they somehow got the buyback going in the first week, there would have been more takers.

    The whole Christchurch thing seems to have mostly been . The signs and flowers are down from the local islamic center, no more police cars outside, and it hasn't really been in the news lately.

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  • plufimplufim Dr Registered User regular
    edited August 27
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  • GvzbgulGvzbgul Ask me about my scrotalist agenda Registered User regular
    I think they're doing their best under the circumstances. Its hard to do anything on a large scale on short notice.

    Running the amnesty til Dec seems a bit optimistic, especially when compared to Australia, which had an initial 12 month buyback and additional buybacks a few years later.

    Mortiousdiscrider
  • HeatwaveHeatwave Come, now, and walk the path of explosions with me!Registered User regular
    edited August 28
    -Loki- wrote: »
    Heatwave wrote: »
    Having been on Newstart in the past, I'd seriously consider killing myself if I ever had to do it again.

    Just a horrible, useless experience, where you don't learn anything useful and while you're doing it everyone thinks you're a lazy piece of shit who doesn't want to work.

    Yeah, I was on it for about a year and a half straight, trying to get work coming out of TAFE. I was glad when I was offered work for the dole or whatever they called it simply for something to do.

    There are plenty of other ways to pass your time, rather than have to deal with Centrelink and their job active providers.

    For example, volunteering at RSPCA, charities, interning for places relevant to your field.

    It's great you found some meaning in it, but from my own experience and others I've known it just isn't worth it.

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  • -Loki--Loki- Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining. Registered User regular
    edited August 30
    Heatwave wrote: »
    -Loki- wrote: »
    Heatwave wrote: »
    Having been on Newstart in the past, I'd seriously consider killing myself if I ever had to do it again.

    Just a horrible, useless experience, where you don't learn anything useful and while you're doing it everyone thinks you're a lazy piece of shit who doesn't want to work.

    Yeah, I was on it for about a year and a half straight, trying to get work coming out of TAFE. I was glad when I was offered work for the dole or whatever they called it simply for something to do.

    There are plenty of other ways to pass your time, rather than have to deal with Centrelink and their job active providers.

    For example, volunteering at RSPCA, charities, interning for places relevant to your field.

    It's great you found some meaning in it, but from my own experience and others I've known it just isn't worth it.

    I was living in a rural town with no drivers license and limited public transport. I didn’t exactly have options.

    -Loki- on
  • SolventSolvent Econ-artist ኢትዮጵያRegistered User regular
    plufim wrote: »
    But after Hungry Jack's did this over Xmas to very little blowback, not surprising. They marketed this as giving youths real work experience, but at the end of the day it was just to give their mates free workers.
    Yeah. This was exactly what everyone knew would happen so it's just favours for mates working as intended.

    I don't know where he got the scorpions, or how he got them into my mattress.

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  • KelorKelor Registered User regular
    My first job out of school was making pretzels.

    The owner of the business had all the employees working on Certificate of Hospitality at the same time because it was a dodge to get government subsidies.

    In retrospect, after being forced to pay for several deliveries of stock in cash out of my own pocket I should not have been surprised when I showed up for work one day and the store was boarded shut.

    At least we were getting paid proper wages, unlike what has happened with all these more recent cases.

  • plufimplufim Dr Registered User regular
    So... Let me get this right. Morrison says we must send that Sri Lanka family back because if we don't people smugglers will send boats.

    And his evidence is that people smugglers HAVE been sending boats.

    Why the hell isn't he being called out for this?

    But as always, the cruelty is the point. The fact that this guts any if us with a heart embolden them.

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  • SolventSolvent Econ-artist ኢትዮጵያRegistered User regular
    I avoided reading any of the stories about that family until my parents brought it up in conversation yesterday, and I had to update myself. It's absolutely heartbreaking.

    I don't know where he got the scorpions, or how he got them into my mattress.

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  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    I mean, yeah, cruelty has always been their policy. That sufficient cruelty will make asylum seekers stay in the hell-holes they know, rather than our state sponsored ones.
    I'm not sure they've ever attempted to sugarcoat it.
    Just moved it to an island away from the journos.

    It's not surprising that Dutton is unashamed about evicting this family, and since he's unashamed, you can't expect the Liberals to kick him out over supporting a party policy plank.

    Maybe with enough noise we can accomplish something.
    I have to believe so.

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  • -Loki--Loki- Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining. Registered User regular
    edited September 3
    I’ve seen a lot of arguments that it’s the same as turning back boats as they catch them at water, which is just fucking awful.

    They let these people stay for 7 years, get established in a community, get jobs, have a family. And only now decided ‘fuck it turf them out’.

    This is particularly cruel even for the Libs.

    -Loki- on
  • plufimplufim Dr Registered User regular
    edited September 3
    Cruelty is all they have left. The economy is in the shitter, worst it's been in 20 years.

    I'm convinced the LNP expected to lose the last election and blame Labor for what's coming. And the closest they'd have to a plan is more cuts to welfare and the public service. And coal mines.

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  • plufimplufim Dr Registered User regular
    edited September 3
    Oh they also have a plan to legalise hates peach under the guise of religious freedom.

    And no doubt they'll pick a few other minorities to brutalise and vilify. My money is on the transgender community, since Murdoch has spent the last month gauging the Australian communities response to targeted hatred and lies regarding them.

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  • Sanguinius666264Sanguinius666264 Registered User regular
    I wonder if this will finally be the thing that puts housing prices on a significant downward slope. God knows it's been divorced from reality for nearly 20 years. I can't find the link, but I remember reading that they divorced from fundamentals back in 2001.

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  • chrishallett83chrishallett83 Hi! Registered User regular
    I wonder if this will finally be the thing that puts housing prices on a significant downward slope. God knows it's been divorced from reality for nearly 20 years. I can't find the link, but I remember reading that they divorced from fundamentals back in 2001.

    Nah, demand has to dry up completely before prices will start to fall. A lot of cheaper properties are coming on to the market here in W.A. as investors start looking to get out of the market before it does screech to a halt, but they were never going to be asking 3/4 of a million dollars anyway.

    Gvzbgul
  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    I wonder if this will finally be the thing that puts housing prices on a significant downward slope. God knows it's been divorced from reality for nearly 20 years. I can't find the link, but I remember reading that they divorced from fundamentals back in 2001.

    Nah, demand has to dry up completely before prices will start to fall. A lot of cheaper properties are coming on to the market here in W.A. as investors start looking to get out of the market before it does screech to a halt, but they were never going to be asking 3/4 of a million dollars anyway.

    And even when the prices fall it won't be a sharp drop. Housing prices are very sticky. Relevant blog post from 2007.

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  • GvzbgulGvzbgul Ask me about my scrotalist agenda Registered User regular
    There will be a definite panic over "house prices falling" but they will either a) not fall by much and quickly go back up or b) not be falling at all but just going up slightly slower (THE HORROR!!).

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  • GvzbgulGvzbgul Ask me about my scrotalist agenda Registered User regular
    Speaking of house prices...

    Kiwibuild is a failure.

    The government's new solution is more funding for people buying their first home. But that will likely push house prices up even more. Weeeeeee.

    tynic
  • MortiousMortious The Nightmare Begins Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    Gvzbgul wrote: »
    Speaking of house prices...

    Kiwibuild is a failure.

    The government's new solution is more funding for people buying their first home. But that will likely push house prices up even more. Weeeeeee.

    I was never really sure Kiwibuild was going to do anything.

    And giving more cash to first home buyers in various was won't really help since in Auckland.

    I really wish the capital gains tax went through. That would make a dent in Auckland. That and stop allowing people to deduct mortgage interest rate payments as a business expense.

    That wont touch people actually living in their houses or even the guys with 1 rental property, but will affect the guys with dozens.

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  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    edited September 4
    Pretty sure that's what caused the Aus property market to cool recently.
    Just the threat of Labor winning election and then putting taxes on property investment.
    Wait, not taxes, removing negative gearing, i.e stop allowing people to deduct mortgage interest rate payments as a business expense

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  • tynictynic PICNIC BADASS Registered User, ClubPA regular
    How do you cool down a property market safely and effectively without taking punitive steps or doing something radical like property nationalisation? I don't have much of an understanding of the legislative levers that can be brought to bear.

  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    tynic wrote: »
    How do you cool down a property market safely

    I'm no economist, but you can't. That's an oxymoron isn't it?
    As soon as you start threatening investment returns, presumably investors will flee the market to some other and crash it.
    So anything that limits the ever-increasing property price will trigger a collapse imo.

    That is, I don't think our high prices are due to regular supply and demand, but instead due to investors buying all the real estate in our capital cities

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  • tynictynic PICNIC BADASS Registered User, ClubPA regular
    edited September 4
    I genuinely don't know, that's why I was asking! In my experience, usually you just wait for a crash and hope it will be a minor one. But I, too, am not an economist.
    What I do know, is that in a lot of other areas there are soft governance processes that can be brought to bear to try and ease runaway feedback loops or disincentivize predatory behaviour. I was wondering if property law and governance had subtler economic levers that could cool a market. There's often a bunch of economics wonks rattling around D&D so I figured one of them might have some knowledge.

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  • SolventSolvent Econ-artist ኢትዮጵያRegistered User regular
    edited September 5
    I don't know what would necessarily qualify as 'subtle' or not 'punitive' but I think that there are many ways that the heat could be taken out of the property market. Whether or not the methods would result in a crash is probably impossible to say. When Labor looked like it would win the election with claims they would remove negative gearing, the market went negative but it didn't crash.

    The primary reason for property being so overvalued is due to the multiple tax lurks available for both investing in property, and also problematically, just owning a residence. You might also cite cultural reasons, I guess, 'Australian dream' and all that. Removing one or a number of these tax advantages should cool off the market.

    For example:
    - Negative gearing (allowing losses against housing investment to be claimed against income not earned from property)
    - Property wealth being ignored or treated favorably in assets test for the pension or other government benefits
    - No charging of capital gains against a primary residence
    - Ignoring imputed rent as a form of income

    Maybe relying less on stamp duties and more on a broad land tax could also have an effect but I'm unsure of that.

    The banks have also been aggressively expanding credit for what, 15 years? You might try to legislatively affect that. While the banks were looking like scaling that back after the Royal Commission, now with Morrison in charge they are being encouraged to go back to their old ways. Nevertheless, there are probably limits to how much more indebted Australians can get, especially if income growth continues to be as anaemic as it is.

    With Labor's defeat though this is all just idle talk though, right? Australians have now pretty consistently voted against affordable housing. Hoping that the populace will learn some sympathy for non-homeowners versus voting for the continued growth of asset prices for the wealthy seems not in keeping with the preference of voters.

    Edit: Oh, and of course, raise interest rates. Their long-term decline is one of the reasons for long rising asset prices. But that's a very blunt tool and probably not appropriate for where the economy's at right now.

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  • DaimarDaimar A Million Feet Tall of Awesome Registered User regular
    In Canada they have attempted to cool the housing market through a few methods.
    - They increased regulation on lenders so they can no longer offer mortgages amortized for longer than 25 years which serves to increase monthly payments making it less affordable
    - They introduced (or adjusted, not sure) a "stress test" on home buyers which basically calculates how able to pay for the mortgage a person or family is, so that made it more difficult to buy a home if you don't meet those conditions.
    - Vancouver introduced a few measures since they are one of the hottest markets, a tax on foreign property investors, a tax on vacant homes, probably a couple more

    Depending on who you ask these measures were either ineffective or the end of the world but they did seem to at least slow the runaway growth.

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  • Sanguinius666264Sanguinius666264 Registered User regular
    It's definitely possible to cool down a market without crashing it - you increase incentives for other sorts of investment, you increase the burdens for investment into property. Labor grandfathering out negative gearing was one example, but you can do others - if you further reduced taxes for putting money into/out of superannuation or something, for example.

    Of course, it all depends on understanding exactly who and what the drivers of the market are - we've cooled off a fair amount with Chinese investment virtually drying up. We're also probably going to head into a recession - that's going to make people save more.

    I doubt prices will crash, but they'll definitely slow further even without doing all that much.

  • plufimplufim Dr Registered User regular
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  • GvzbgulGvzbgul Ask me about my scrotalist agenda Registered User regular
    edited September 10
    That's the first half right? "I don't know if climate change is manmade...

    ...because I'm not a climate scientist and don't know much about it. That's why I listen to experts who study climate change and rely on their knowledge. They say its manmade and they know their stuff."

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