SMH have a day by day comparison graph comparing it to the Crossroads hotel and Avalon+Berala outbreaks last year. I remember reading an opinion piece in the first week that Sydney-siders shouldn't be concerned it's not as bad as the Avalon cluster was.
-Loki-Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining.Registered Userregular
If it gets much steeper it’ll start curving back on itself.
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MorninglordI'm tired of being Batman,so today I'll be Owl.Registered Userregular
edited July 2021
We wont see any results from this latest increased lockdown for a week. It isn't going to change (if it does anything) for several days.
It's also entirely possible that Delta is just so ridiculously contagious it cannot be reasonably contained without italian style nobody leaves their house period orders in which case we might be truly be fucked because there is zero chance they'll do that.
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-Loki-Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining.Registered Userregular
We wont see any results from this latest increased lockdown for a week. It isn't going to change (if it does anything) for several days.
It's also entirely possible that Delta is just so ridiculously contagious it cannot be reasonably contained without italian style nobody leaves their house period orders in which case we might be truly be fucked because there is zero chance they'll do that.
There was an interview with an epidemiologist who was saying they’re seeing some people infectious after a day with Delta, rather than the 5 days of the original strain. So by the time they develop symptoms and get tested, the close contacts of their close contacts are positive.
Sydney isn’t getting out if this any time soon with the current restrictions.
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MorninglordI'm tired of being Batman,so today I'll be Owl.Registered Userregular
edited July 2021
Yes it's not good. I knew as soon as I heard that, that this liberal government would let it get away from them. And in fact that it might just get away from any government.
The only thing preventing me from full blown panic at this point is that I got my second vaccine shot two days ago.
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-Loki-Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining.Registered Userregular
edited July 2021
I’ve been working from home for 3 weeks now, and I’ve been told that’s until further notice. Same with the missus. So we are doing it properly, staying home and having one go to the shops at a time and getting most things delivered.
Worryingly I started getting a sore throat last night.
I’ve been working from home for 3 weeks now, and I’ve been told that’s until further notice. Same with the missus. So we are doing it properly, staying home and having one go to the shops at a time and getting most things delivered.
Worryingly I started getting a sore throat last night.
Stay safe buddy, let us know if there’s anything we can do to help!
If it gets much steeper it’ll start curving back on itself.
Yeah, I don't like that graph for that reason.
It accurately shows how bad the outbreak is compared to other outbreaks.
But because it is bad, the triple-digit case increases are going to look almost vertical until there is a better base of comparison.
Either because we hit bigger increases (and so this part of the curve looks flatter by comparison), or until it starts flattening.
At the moment, we're bouncing around 100 cases a day, so fingers crossed we're decelerating.
We just had the entire construction industry in Sydney shut down to try to curb worksite infections.
And now a cafe in south west Sydney was staffed by an infectious worker for 10 straight days.
I'm kind of astonished no one has made that call in Victoria. Would have been a huge percentage of tradesmen at the MCG exposure, they travel long distances for work and while with the long lockdown concern was about Covid staying on surfaces for 2-3 hours you could argue it.
When it's as contagious as Delta is and I know for a fact that wide swaths of the smaller builders don't take it as seriously as it needs to be it feels like the hammer should get brought down. The Unions and Master Builders Association have been fighting tooth and nail to carve exemptions out for work allowed.
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AegeriTiny wee bacteriumsPlateau of LengRegistered Userregular
In minor good news, at least racist right wing blowhard Katie Hopkins has been fired from big brother and will likely be deported due to breaching COVID-19 restrictions in quarantine.
And yeah, Delta looks like it has every chance of undoing the good work Australia did. Nobody should ever have rolled dice with this virus.
In minor good news, at least racist right wing blowhard Katie Hopkins has been fired from big brother and will likely be deported due to breaching COVID-19 restrictions in quarantine.
And yeah, Delta looks like it has every chance of undoing the good work Australia did. Nobody should ever have rolled dice with this virus.
But they did
And the fuckknuckle brigade will be out in force pushing that the last 18 months has been a waste of time (at best), and actively harmful (at worst), because this new outcome was an inevitability.
Some people just can't comprehend preventative measures, or won't believe worst case scenarios will happen to them. And for most of them, that'll be true, and reinforce their belief.
In minor good news, at least racist right wing blowhard Katie Hopkins has been fired from big brother and will likely be deported due to breaching COVID-19 restrictions in quarantine.
And yeah, Delta looks like it has every chance of undoing the good work Australia did. Nobody should ever have rolled dice with this virus.
But they did
And the fuckknuckle brigade will be out in force pushing that the last 18 months has been a waste of time (at best), and actively harmful (at worst), because this new outcome was an inevitability.
Some people just can't comprehend preventative measures, or won't believe worst case scenarios will happen to them. And for most of them, that'll be true, and reinforce their belief.
I'm working off the assumption the government is going to bail on doing anything as soon as it can, and basically counting the days and maximizing precautions till Bulgarian girl and I can be fully vaccinated.
We're never hitting herd immunity levels of vaccination that's for sure.
EDIT: The number of online commentators who seem to believe vaccines are readily available in this country is incredible though. We're not hitting herd immunity, but it's abundantly clear that between letting Murdoch fear-monger about AZ, and the idiotic rollout, it's still incredibly hard to get vaccines but the demand is there. My parents are GPs and just got included in being able to administer AZ, and are receiving doses in batches of about 150 - they're clearing those out in a couple of days.
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-Loki-Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining.Registered Userregular
I just saw a tweet from someone looking at the data behind the amount of people isloated during their infectious period in Sydney. Starts off at 42% and swings wildly between that and 60% and averages 47%.
So contact tracers aren't managing to do their jobs of contacting people before they are infectious.
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MorninglordI'm tired of being Batman,so today I'll be Owl.Registered Userregular
edited July 2021
I don't even know if it's possible with Delta. Not unless literally nobody is allowed to leave their house for any reason.
There was a case in Victoria where a person became infectious within 30 hours.
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-Loki-Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining.Registered Userregular
I don't even know if it's possible with Delta. Not unless literally nobody is allowed to leave their house for any reason.
There was a case in Victoria where a person became infectious within 30 hours.
Gladys really needed to lock down in week 1.
At the moment if they lift lockdown before they manage to go 14 days with no community infections, hospitals will quickly be overwhelmed. If they don’t, best estimates I’ve seen with current restrictions are lockdown until September. At best. And that’s if people actually follow the restrictions.
And they're not going to. All the lock down of the construction industry did was now make a bunch of folks, who are possibly infectious, now need to go get work elsewhere. Where are they going to go? Why, close regional towns of course. We already saw that in Goulbourn. What are the odds that it'll now pop up in Newcastle or Canberra?
Pre- reg opening up for Pfizer vaccinations in ACT tomorrow for 30-39s
I believe then notifying you when Pfizer is available; not sure if it will book you in when it happens.
Pre- reg opening up for Pfizer vaccinations in ACT tomorrow for 30-39s
I believe then notifying you when Pfizer is available; not sure if it will book you in when it happens.
The inconsistency and confusion of the vaccine rollout has been monumentally incompetent.
Seriously, this could have been handled much better with barely any effort or resources.
Pre- reg opening up for Pfizer vaccinations in ACT tomorrow for 30-39s
I believe then notifying you when Pfizer is available; not sure if it will book you in when it happens.
The inconsistency and confusion of the vaccine rollout has been monumentally incompetent.
Seriously, this could have been handled much better with barely any effort or resources.
On the one hand, yes, if the federal government had done anything to nationalise this stuff, then it would have been better handled by the Immunisation Register.
And ScoMo should not have told doctors to just give Astrazeneca without consulting the states who are managing the rollout for him.
On the other hand, the ACT rollout has been competent as far as I'm aware.
Just needs more vaccines.
Pre- reg opening up for Pfizer vaccinations in ACT tomorrow for 30-39s
I believe then notifying you when Pfizer is available; not sure if it will book you in when it happens.
The inconsistency and confusion of the vaccine rollout has been monumentally incompetent.
Seriously, this could have been handled much better with barely any effort or resources.
On the one hand, yes, if the federal government had done anything to nationalise this stuff, then it would have been better handled by the Immunisation Register.
And ScoMo should not have told doctors to just give Astrazeneca without consulting the states who are managing the rollout for him.
On the other hand, the ACT rollout has been competent as far as I'm aware.
Just needs more vaccines.
Trying to nationalize the vaccinations for COVID-19 has been part of the source of the absolute disaster it is.
The Australian Immunisation register has been working just fine for new vaccines this entire time - every state had tie ins, databases and distribution systems. For COVID-19, the Federal government decided to go around all of that and pay fucking Accenture a bunch of money to build a completely new system, which of course has had all sorts of problems as a result.
It has been graft and corruption top to bottom with these idiots.
As an immigrant from the UK where pretty much everything is handled at the national level, it constantly amazes me how none of the state's systems actually talk to each other. I guess I shouldn't complain too much since a large part of my work is making these various systems talk to each other.
Also... I got it. The bloody gold dust. Pfizer.
I was at the point where I thought my best chance of getting it was going to be waiting five years until I was actually eligible based on age, but I went along with my partner who is eligible on the basis of being a healthcare worker (side note: WHY THE FUCK DO WE STILL HAVE UNVACCINATED HEALTHCARE WORKERS??) and since it was the end of the day and they had an open vial with doses leftover, I got to get stabbed along with her. It seems that standard procedure is that if they've got any leftover at the end of the day they'll just grab anyone nearby and jab them, since otherwise anything leftover has to get thrown out. I could hear the hospital staff calling friends and relatives as we left saying "Yeah, if you can get down here in 20 minutes they'll do you", so I'm glad this stuff isn't just going to waste!
On the other hand, if you are in a position to get a legit appointment, please try to move heaven and earth to actually make it; they only had any leftovers in the first place because of multiple no-shows, and while I'm relived to have gotten mine, I would have happily given it up for an older person who needed it more. Well... maybe not happily. But I'd have done it.
Not sure what to think about the ATAGI advice now.
On the one hand, the Astrazeneca vaccine's side effects are so unlikely that I believe it should be recommended during the Covid outbreaks that have started.
On the other hand, the government's just going to use any such recommendation as an easy out, rather than securing more, safer vaccines.
-Loki-Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining.Registered Userregular
I’m still waiting for access to Pfizer. I get the government wants people to get vaccinated now, but there’s also a choice between two. They don’t get to make the choice for me.
Also if ScoMo isn’t lying about Pfizer shipments, it’s not going to be that long if a wait anyway.
I’m still waiting for access to Pfizer. I get the government wants people to get vaccinated now, but there’s also a choice between two. They don’t get to make the choice for me.
Also if ScoMo isn’t lying about Pfizer shipments, it’s not going to be that long if a wait anyway.
That's a pretty big IF though. He's not as bad as some, but his credibility with me is completely shot, especially when it comes to covid response. And government accountability (harrasment/bullying/sexual assault, but that's a separate issue).
He's basically done the "If the individual states fuck up, it's their fault, if they don't, I want the credit" crap. The federal response has, and continues to be, woeful.
Not sure what to think about the ATAGI advice now.
On the one hand, the Astrazeneca vaccine's side effects are so unlikely that I believe it should be recommended during the Covid outbreaks that have started.
On the other hand, the government's just going to use any such recommendation as an easy out, rather than securing more, safer vaccines.
It's an unenviable position.
For what its worth, if I hadn't gotten Pfizer I would probably have talked to my GP about getting AZ. The risk from AZ was and is astranomically low, not quite one-in-a-million, I believe its actually nine-in-a-million. The problem is it isn't zero, and back when there were zero active cases in the community, the incredibly low risk from AZ complications still seemed much greater than the risk of getting COVID. This latest outbreak is probably going to have some people adjusting their mental calculus somewhat. The UK vaccinated most of its population with Astrazenica and has had only 42 deaths from Astrazenica vs 129,000 deaths from COVID, not counting the many more who got it, recovered, and now have some kind of long term damage done to them. Which is what really concerns me about COVID; realistically at my age it would most likely just be like a bad cold that I'd clear without even going into hospital, but we're just now starting to study the long-terms effects of COVID, and it doesn't look pretty.
-Loki-Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining.Registered Userregular
Woah, 136 cases today, 53 infectious in the community.
That number actually confirms one of my suspicious - Gladys hasn't been entirely truthful with the numbers. At the start, she was announcing people in the community for their whole infectious period, and people only for part of that period. Then all of a sudden the partials stopped being announced and everyone thought they've been bundled together. But the other day, a news bulletin said '124 cases and the majority not isolated' but the non-isolated count was 43, which is not the majority of 124.
Today, she clarified the 53 were the cases in the community for their full infectious period, there were another 17 in the community for part of it.
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FishmanPut your goddamned hand in the goddamned Box of Pain.Registered Userregular
There it is.
Quarantine Free Travel from all Australian states and territories to New Zealand is being suspended as the Covid situation there worsens, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins announced today.
From 11.59pm today Australians will no longer be able to enter New Zealand quarantine-free. This will be in place for at least the next 8 weeks.
For the next seven days there will be managed return flights for New Zealanders from all states and territories that will require proof of a negative pre-departure test. Additionally, those who have been in NSW will still have to go into MIQ for 14 days. And those who have been in Victoria must self-isolate upon return and have a negative Day 3 test
Yeah that was inevitable and while disappointing, is just what happens when someone drops the ball as hard as the Liberals in NSW did.
I would rather NZ take zero risks than protect the economy.
It's easier to argue this IS protecting their economy, by not having a plague ravage their citizenry and overwhelm their health services.
Sure, international travel and tourism are a part of it, but going into lockdown has to be worse.
I mean, one of the big issues we have is that we actually already have a plague overwhelming the health services - it's not Covid, though. If you added another one, we'd actually have even less room before becoming completely overwhelmed.
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lonelyahavaCall me Ahava ~~She/Her~~Move to New ZealandRegistered Userregular
Yeah the hospitals are struggling with RSV enough, adding Covid on to would be devastating
Yeah the hospitals are struggling with RSV enough, adding Covid on to would be devastating
My grandma's currently in hospital and has caught that amongst everything else, so this may be it for the old bird. (She got hosptilized because she was dumb about her asthma and getting help earlier, so my sympathy is a bit limited). Covid getting loose let alone Delta would be a real disaster though.
Posts
This graph is still updating, and the Sydney line is still almost vertical.
But yeah, still not good.
Hopefully it gets less steep soon.
It's also entirely possible that Delta is just so ridiculously contagious it cannot be reasonably contained without italian style nobody leaves their house period orders in which case we might be truly be fucked because there is zero chance they'll do that.
There was an interview with an epidemiologist who was saying they’re seeing some people infectious after a day with Delta, rather than the 5 days of the original strain. So by the time they develop symptoms and get tested, the close contacts of their close contacts are positive.
Sydney isn’t getting out if this any time soon with the current restrictions.
The only thing preventing me from full blown panic at this point is that I got my second vaccine shot two days ago.
Worryingly I started getting a sore throat last night.
Stay safe buddy, let us know if there’s anything we can do to help!
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better
bit.ly/2XQM1ke
Yeah, I don't like that graph for that reason.
It accurately shows how bad the outbreak is compared to other outbreaks.
But because it is bad, the triple-digit case increases are going to look almost vertical until there is a better base of comparison.
Either because we hit bigger increases (and so this part of the curve looks flatter by comparison), or until it starts flattening.
At the moment, we're bouncing around 100 cases a day, so fingers crossed we're decelerating.
But it's still bad, and I'm still worried.
I'm kind of astonished no one has made that call in Victoria. Would have been a huge percentage of tradesmen at the MCG exposure, they travel long distances for work and while with the long lockdown concern was about Covid staying on surfaces for 2-3 hours you could argue it.
When it's as contagious as Delta is and I know for a fact that wide swaths of the smaller builders don't take it as seriously as it needs to be it feels like the hammer should get brought down. The Unions and Master Builders Association have been fighting tooth and nail to carve exemptions out for work allowed.
And yeah, Delta looks like it has every chance of undoing the good work Australia did. Nobody should ever have rolled dice with this virus.
But they did
And the fuckknuckle brigade will be out in force pushing that the last 18 months has been a waste of time (at best), and actively harmful (at worst), because this new outcome was an inevitability.
Some people just can't comprehend preventative measures, or won't believe worst case scenarios will happen to them. And for most of them, that'll be true, and reinforce their belief.
I'm working off the assumption the government is going to bail on doing anything as soon as it can, and basically counting the days and maximizing precautions till Bulgarian girl and I can be fully vaccinated.
We're never hitting herd immunity levels of vaccination that's for sure.
EDIT: The number of online commentators who seem to believe vaccines are readily available in this country is incredible though. We're not hitting herd immunity, but it's abundantly clear that between letting Murdoch fear-monger about AZ, and the idiotic rollout, it's still incredibly hard to get vaccines but the demand is there. My parents are GPs and just got included in being able to administer AZ, and are receiving doses in batches of about 150 - they're clearing those out in a couple of days.
So contact tracers aren't managing to do their jobs of contacting people before they are infectious.
There was a case in Victoria where a person became infectious within 30 hours.
Gladys really needed to lock down in week 1.
At the moment if they lift lockdown before they manage to go 14 days with no community infections, hospitals will quickly be overwhelmed. If they don’t, best estimates I’ve seen with current restrictions are lockdown until September. At best. And that’s if people actually follow the restrictions.
I believe then notifying you when Pfizer is available; not sure if it will book you in when it happens.
Pre-reg appears to be live now in fact:
https://www.covid19.act.gov.au/stay-safe-and-healthy/vaccine
The inconsistency and confusion of the vaccine rollout has been monumentally incompetent.
Seriously, this could have been handled much better with barely any effort or resources.
On the one hand, yes, if the federal government had done anything to nationalise this stuff, then it would have been better handled by the Immunisation Register.
And ScoMo should not have told doctors to just give Astrazeneca without consulting the states who are managing the rollout for him.
On the other hand, the ACT rollout has been competent as far as I'm aware.
Just needs more vaccines.
Trying to nationalize the vaccinations for COVID-19 has been part of the source of the absolute disaster it is.
The Australian Immunisation register has been working just fine for new vaccines this entire time - every state had tie ins, databases and distribution systems. For COVID-19, the Federal government decided to go around all of that and pay fucking Accenture a bunch of money to build a completely new system, which of course has had all sorts of problems as a result.
It has been graft and corruption top to bottom with these idiots.
Also... I got it. The bloody gold dust. Pfizer.
I was at the point where I thought my best chance of getting it was going to be waiting five years until I was actually eligible based on age, but I went along with my partner who is eligible on the basis of being a healthcare worker (side note: WHY THE FUCK DO WE STILL HAVE UNVACCINATED HEALTHCARE WORKERS??) and since it was the end of the day and they had an open vial with doses leftover, I got to get stabbed along with her. It seems that standard procedure is that if they've got any leftover at the end of the day they'll just grab anyone nearby and jab them, since otherwise anything leftover has to get thrown out. I could hear the hospital staff calling friends and relatives as we left saying "Yeah, if you can get down here in 20 minutes they'll do you", so I'm glad this stuff isn't just going to waste!
On the other hand, if you are in a position to get a legit appointment, please try to move heaven and earth to actually make it; they only had any leftovers in the first place because of multiple no-shows, and while I'm relived to have gotten mine, I would have happily given it up for an older person who needed it more. Well... maybe not happily. But I'd have done it.
On the one hand, the Astrazeneca vaccine's side effects are so unlikely that I believe it should be recommended during the Covid outbreaks that have started.
On the other hand, the government's just going to use any such recommendation as an easy out, rather than securing more, safer vaccines.
It's an unenviable position.
Also if ScoMo isn’t lying about Pfizer shipments, it’s not going to be that long if a wait anyway.
That's a pretty big IF though. He's not as bad as some, but his credibility with me is completely shot, especially when it comes to covid response. And government accountability (harrasment/bullying/sexual assault, but that's a separate issue).
He's basically done the "If the individual states fuck up, it's their fault, if they don't, I want the credit" crap. The federal response has, and continues to be, woeful.
For what its worth, if I hadn't gotten Pfizer I would probably have talked to my GP about getting AZ. The risk from AZ was and is astranomically low, not quite one-in-a-million, I believe its actually nine-in-a-million. The problem is it isn't zero, and back when there were zero active cases in the community, the incredibly low risk from AZ complications still seemed much greater than the risk of getting COVID. This latest outbreak is probably going to have some people adjusting their mental calculus somewhat. The UK vaccinated most of its population with Astrazenica and has had only 42 deaths from Astrazenica vs 129,000 deaths from COVID, not counting the many more who got it, recovered, and now have some kind of long term damage done to them. Which is what really concerns me about COVID; realistically at my age it would most likely just be like a bad cold that I'd clear without even going into hospital, but we're just now starting to study the long-terms effects of COVID, and it doesn't look pretty.
It'd just be far easier to convince my wife if ATAGI recommended it.
Cause what if you're the one in a million etc etc etc
And it's not like I don't take those kind of odds on other medical procedures already.
That number actually confirms one of my suspicious - Gladys hasn't been entirely truthful with the numbers. At the start, she was announcing people in the community for their whole infectious period, and people only for part of that period. Then all of a sudden the partials stopped being announced and everyone thought they've been bundled together. But the other day, a news bulletin said '124 cases and the majority not isolated' but the non-isolated count was 43, which is not the majority of 124.
Today, she clarified the 53 were the cases in the community for their full infectious period, there were another 17 in the community for part of it.
I would rather NZ take zero risks than protect the economy.
It's easier to argue this IS protecting their economy, by not having a plague ravage their citizenry and overwhelm their health services.
Sure, international travel and tourism are a part of it, but going into lockdown has to be worse.
I mean, one of the big issues we have is that we actually already have a plague overwhelming the health services - it's not Covid, though. If you added another one, we'd actually have even less room before becoming completely overwhelmed.
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My grandma's currently in hospital and has caught that amongst everything else, so this may be it for the old bird. (She got hosptilized because she was dumb about her asthma and getting help earlier, so my sympathy is a bit limited). Covid getting loose let alone Delta would be a real disaster though.
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Right when there's a Delta outbreak. In Sydney.
These fucking idiots are going to end up in hospital and drag this thing on even longer.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better
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Nope.