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Like a centipede waiting for the other shoe to drop in [The Economy] thread

silence1186silence1186 Character shields down!As a wingmanRegistered User regular
So tangential to many discussions I've been following in D&D (taxes, the budget, the Russia investigation) have been posts about the state of the economy, and the potential for an economic downturn in the very near future. Rather than have off-topic discussions in those threads, I feel like there's enough meat for a discussion about the current US economy, the signs of a potential recession, how such a recession could affect the world economy, and what the political ramifications such a downturn might cause.

I wrote those words almost a year ago, and honestly, I figured we'd have had some kind of economic crisis that would precipitate a sudden and painful downturn in the economy. Look at who's at the helm, after all. There are still worrying signs, but I feel like we've been waiting for the shoe to drop for quite some time.

The last economic crisis was ~10 years ago, and conventional wisdom says the boom and bust cycle is also ~10 years, so in that sense we're "due" for one. Conventional wisdom doesn't always hold. For example, unemployment is historically low (cite), but there's no upward pressure on wage growth (cite). @AresProphet had an effort post about it.

In the last year Mr. Trump decided since Trade Wars are the easiest thing in the world to win, he would go ahead and start them with basically the entire world. This has led to a tit for tat escalation with China, with no signs of either side backing down. For the last few quarters, companies have been stockpiling materials in anticipation of increased costs (leading to deceptively high economic growth), but this could have catastrophic long term consequences for the US. For example, Chinese buyers are shifting away from US soybeans, and even if a future president ends the tariffs, there's no guarantee they'll ever come back to US markets.

Also worrying is the impending no-deal Brexit. Although the finer points can be discussed in the relevant thread, if it goes forward as is it promises to be a disastrous exogenous shock to the global economy.

There's lots going on, and plenty of in depth, high level discussion to be had, so be excellent to each other, and let's watch and see what happens to the economy this year.

Last thread.

Link to @ronya 's last excellent Economy thread.

Official cross contamination of off-topic posting links:

Talk about the budget here

Talk about the tax reform here

N.B. Although its effects can be considered with regard to The Economy, Get into the weeds about Brexit here.

Talk about anything Trump-related in one of the myriad of threads about him

V wrote:
Words will always retain their power. Words offer the means to meaning, and for those who will listen, the enunciation of truth.

ForarL Ron Howard
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Posts

  • silence1186silence1186 Character shields down! As a wingmanRegistered User regular
    Whoever locked the last thread, bravo at your speed, I didn't even have a chance to notify a mod.

    V wrote:
    Words will always retain their power. Words offer the means to meaning, and for those who will listen, the enunciation of truth.

  • NotYouNotYou Registered User regular
    Markets bouncing back today and yesterday.

    I was speaking with a stock broker about this, but he I and both agreed that the classic phrase, a bull market climbs a wall of worry, is usually a pretty accurate strategy. Most of his clients are hedging their bets a ton, waiting for that inevitable downturn.

    More and more I'm having a hard time believing there'll be large crash. Everyone has too much in cash saved up. Any fall is going to be softened by people looking for deals.

    SleepMatev
  • CogCog I'm festive as fuck. Registered User regular
    NotYou wrote: »
    Markets bouncing back today and yesterday.

    I was speaking with a stock broker about this, but he I and both agreed that the classic phrase, a bull market climbs a wall of worry, is usually a pretty accurate strategy. Most of his clients are hedging their bets a ton, waiting for that inevitable downturn.

    More and more I'm having a hard time believing there'll be large crash. Everyone has too much in cash saved up. Any fall is going to be softened by people looking for deals.

    ....Consumers?

    XaquinMegaMekHeffling
  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    NotYou wrote: »
    More and more I'm having a hard time believing there'll be large crash. Everyone has too much in cash saved up. Any fall is going to be softened by people looking for deals.

    *thousand yard stare*

    monikerEncPhillishereBloodsheedCogGnome-InterruptusQanamilAresProphetFencingsaxQuidFoolOnTheHillMahnmutSealMillTOGSolidTicaldfjamMegaMekLoisLaneEtiowsaMatevknitdanEmperorSethHefflingIncenjucarBandabledispatch.o
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    NotYou wrote: »
    Markets bouncing back today and yesterday.

    I was speaking with a stock broker about this, but he I and both agreed that the classic phrase, a bull market climbs a wall of worry, is usually a pretty accurate strategy. Most of his clients are hedging their bets a ton, waiting for that inevitable downturn.

    More and more I'm having a hard time believing there'll be large crash. Everyone has too much in cash saved up. Any fall is going to be softened by people looking for deals.

    These don't strike as flashing red, but they also aren't particularly amazing either.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCI


    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCINONFINLEVERAGE

    Especially since when something changes it changes fast.

  • NotYouNotYou Registered User regular
    Cog wrote: »
    NotYou wrote: »
    Markets bouncing back today and yesterday.

    I was speaking with a stock broker about this, but he I and both agreed that the classic phrase, a bull market climbs a wall of worry, is usually a pretty accurate strategy. Most of his clients are hedging their bets a ton, waiting for that inevitable downturn.

    More and more I'm having a hard time believing there'll be large crash. Everyone has too much in cash saved up. Any fall is going to be softened by people looking for deals.

    ....Consumers?

    Consumers are doing what they always do. Spending their entire paychecks.

  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    NotYou wrote: »
    Cog wrote: »
    NotYou wrote: »
    Markets bouncing back today and yesterday.

    I was speaking with a stock broker about this, but he I and both agreed that the classic phrase, a bull market climbs a wall of worry, is usually a pretty accurate strategy. Most of his clients are hedging their bets a ton, waiting for that inevitable downturn.

    More and more I'm having a hard time believing there'll be large crash. Everyone has too much in cash saved up. Any fall is going to be softened by people looking for deals.

    ....Consumers?

    Consumers are doing what they always do. Spending their entire paychecks.

    *vibrates so hard he levitates off his chair*

    Gnome-InterruptusmonikerPhillishereEncCogNotYouAresProphettynicoverride367MahnmutTynnanTicaldfjamMegaMekLoisLaneMatevHefflingIncenjucarGiggles_Funsworthdispatch.o
  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    Pretty sure he was talking about investors and firms which have been hoarding cash pretty much since the recovery started.

    PSN: idontworkhere582 | CFN: idontworkhere | Steam: lordbutters
    SleepXaquinFencingsaxKruite
  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    edited November 1
    *eyes barrel filled with pitchforks and torches nervously intently*

    Enc on
    Guns make you stupid. Better to fight your wars with duct tape. Duct tape makes you smart.

    I make Encounter Maps for Pathfinder and D&D! Check them out here: https://falleron.com/
    MegaMekYamiB.Giggles_Funsworth
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    Pretty sure he was talking about investors and firms which have been hoarding cash pretty much since the recovery started.

    Except that leverage rates are rising. Not drastically, but still. The next recession may not be a balance sheet one, like '07-'09 but if it's more akin to the 2000's dot com bust that's going to hurt for a long time, even if it's shallow.

  • PeccaviPeccavi Registered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    Pretty sure he was talking about investors and firms which have been hoarding cash pretty much since the recovery started.

    I mean, that's the stock buybacks that have been going on all year, CEOs using company money to prop up their stock price while cashing out themselves. I read an article recently about how you shouldn't worry about the recent correction because companies were blocked from buybacks during the earning announcements, but now that that's over they can get right back to propping their prices up.

    Makes me wonder how this year would have looked without everyone actively manipulating their stock price, and what happens when that cash flow turns off/CEOs feel they have dumped enough shares.

    SleepDoodmannElldrenLoisLaneMatevHefflingGiggles_Funsworthoverride367
  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    I'm not going to quote the tweet, but Trump is advertising sanctions dropping the day before elections.

    In a way that HBO is threatening to sue.

  • ForarForar #432 Toronto, Ontario, CanadaRegistered User regular
    Because we might as well spell it out, it's because they've decided to adopt the "Winter is Coming" line to their own ends.

    The tweet in question has been linked in other threads, though this is the first I've heard that HBO is responding.

    First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKER!
  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Forar wrote: »
    Because we might as well spell it out, it's because they've decided to adopt the "Winter is Coming" line to their own ends.

    The tweet in question has been linked in other threads, though this is the first I've heard that HBO is responding.

    monikerPolaritieAegisRchanenForarTomantaSleepFencingsaxcaligynefobLoisLaneMatevElldrenHefflingKruiteAridholoverride367dispatch.o
  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    how can "winter is coming" be trademarked?

    it'd be like trademarking "it's summer now" or "hi, how are you?"

  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    It's probably the iconography.

    monikerPolaritieCptKemzikEncArbitraryDescriptorGnome-InterruptusRchanenShadow DemonQanamilSleepTOGSolidFencingsaxVeagleLoisLaneDevoutlyApatheticKayne Red RobeMatevElldrenHefflingbrynhrtmnMartini_PhilosopherLovelyRozA Kobold's Koboldoverride367dispatch.o
  • HamHamJHamHamJ Registered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    how can "winter is coming" be trademarked?

    it'd be like trademarking "it's summer now" or "hi, how are you?"

    When you blatantly copy the font and the formatting as well and it is an obvious reference... well it might be fair use parody but since the Trump admin is a parody of itself maybe that double negatives into trademark infringement who knows.

    While racing light mechs, your Urbanmech comes in second place, but only because it ran out of ammo.
  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    It's probably covered under fair use, but by not directly attacking it they are essentially condoning its use in this context...which is probably not good and also weakens their trademark claim.

    MorganVSleepelectricitylikesmeElldrenMartini_PhilosopherLovelydispatch.o
  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    HamHamJ wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    how can "winter is coming" be trademarked?

    it'd be like trademarking "it's summer now" or "hi, how are you?"

    When you blatantly copy the font and the formatting as well and it is an obvious reference... well it might be fair use parody but since the Trump admin is a parody of itself maybe that double negatives into trademark infringement who knows.

    oh I didn't know about the font and formatting!

  • tynictynic PICNIC BADASS Registered User, ClubPA regular
    Parody fair use defense has to parody the subject itself (cf penny arcade strawberry shortcake). This has good claim at either a design right or copyright infringement, and as doodman says, letting it slide weakens their trademark.

    MorganVRchanenelectricitylikesmeDevoutlyApatheticKayne Red RobeElldrenMartini_Philosopherdispatch.o
  • RT800RT800 Registered User regular
    edited November 2
    That tweet seems like it's more just HBO being cheeky than an actual threat.

    The idea that anyone could actually trademark the phrase "winter is coming" is absurd.

    RT800 on
    CelestialBadger
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    They'll probably lose the case since government work is by definition not commercial in nature/non-profit and its easy to claim parody. However...it's better that they sue than just let it stand considering the blatant nature of it, and the lack of a request. Especially since he's the goddamn President.

    DoodmannshrykeElldrenCelestialBadger
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    tynic wrote: »
    Parody fair use defense has to parody the subject itself (cf penny arcade strawberry shortcake). This has good claim at either a design right or copyright infringement, and as doodman says, letting it slide weakens their trademark.

    Penny Arcade is a commercial entity. The Presidency is not, even with Trump grifting for all he's worth, and so generally has more leeway in fair use.

  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    They'll probably lose the case since government work is by definition not commercial in nature/non-profit and its easy to claim parody. However...it's better that they sue than just let it stand considering the blatant nature of it, and the lack of a request. Especially since he's the goddamn President.

    Even if it's nothing else, make it a rebuke against the President for mocking something that's almost definitely going to hurt people.

    Didn't like when McCain did the "Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran" thing either. A politician making light of something that is going to physically or financially harm people, most likely people who did nothing wrong and are just collateral damage in the global "swinging of dicks"*, is disgusting.

    So go after him because of that.

    * I understand that sometimes military or economic sanctions are necessary. But it needs to be understood it's people who are least powerful and least responsible in that area that are often most hurt by it.

    Doodmannmoniker
  • Jebus314Jebus314 Registered User regular
    I don't think it's as cut and dry as people are claiming. Trademarks over phrases protect the idea behind the phrase, not the words themselves. "Winter is coming" TM, has a connotation of bad things are on the horizon. If you say "hey it's fall and but it's really cold out, I guess winter is coming," then you haven't run afoul of the trademark because the idea behind the phrase is different. If on the other hand you say something like "economic conditions are bad, you know what that means, #winteriscoming" then it's obvious to everyone that you are quoting game of thrones and invoking the bad things on the horizon connotation.

    As an aside, to claim a parody fair use exemption you have to meet certain criteria. link.
    In the final analysis, if your parody confuses consumers, and they believe that the trademark owner is the source or sponsor of the parody, then you may be liable for infringement or dilution.

    Basically unless it is absolutely clear that HBO is not endorsing Trump then Trump can be liable for trademark dilution.

    "The world is a mess, and I just need to rule it" - Dr Horrible
    MorganVcaligynefobQuid
  • AstaerethAstaereth In the belly of the beastRegistered User regular
    The irony is that Game of Thrones is basically a right wing fantasy world: women are objects owned by men, crimes are punished by execution, might makes right, the economy is feudal, there's a caravan horde and a wall to keep them out, and most of the characters are interested in Making Westeros Great Again.

    ACsTqqK.jpg
    SleepelectricitylikesmeGnome-InterruptusMatevAresProphetJebus314MahnmutHefflingIncenjucarbrynhrtmnLovelydispatch.o
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Astaereth wrote: »
    The irony is that Game of Thrones is basically a right wing fantasy world: women are objects owned by men, crimes are punished by execution, might makes right, the economy is feudal, there's a caravan horde and a wall to keep them out, and most of the characters are interested in Making Westeros Great Again.

    And TWO of the three families that ascended the throne, were fine with banging other family members.

    MatevHefflingMrVyngaardbrynhrtmndispatch.o
  • HenroidHenroid Radio Demon Internet HellRegistered User regular
    Hi economy thread!
    Capitalism isn’t working right. The U.S. economy is growing, but workers are seeing less and less of the benefits
    My reaction to Bloomberg finally picking up on this can probably be summed up with,
    This article doesn't cover anything new or ground-breaking for anyone who has followed the wage-to-production crises that started in America during the 1980s (fuck you Reagan). The one new idea it brings up is this:
    But there is one area where antipoaching agreements might still be legal — franchise chains. Many franchises stipulate in their contracts that franchise owners aren’t allowed to hire each other’s workers. If you were a tax preparer working at an H&R Block franchise as recently as 2015, for instance, you couldn’t get a raise by hopping to a different H&R Block, or even getting an outside offer from a competing chain. As franchise chains grow in size and importance, this could mean fewer and fewer opportunities for workers to change jobs and get raises.
    I didn't know that this was a thing companies are trying to clamp down on. Closest brush-up I had with it personally was when I jumped states with a transfer to a new location. I was due for a raise and had my arm twisted into spending the raise to keep my rate of pay just shy of where it was (California wages are higher than Nevada). Which is to say, the company wanted to drop my pay.

    A lot of the reason I decided to share this though is because this is the third time in as many weeks that I've seen major publications - usually the conservative-leaning or financial-blowing types - finally arguing that capitalism is a broken-as-shit system. And while it's being discussed in the meta, Bloomberg was kind enough to bring data to the table with specific US law citations. And charts!

    Centrism is just the cowardly way to be a bigot w/o being explicit about it.
    American politics isn't 4D chess, it's just if you give a shit about other people or not.
    DoodmannTicaldfjamMrVyngaardGnome-Interruptusdurandal4532KarozMatevLoisLaneMartini_PhilosopherGiggles_Funsworth
  • HenroidHenroid Radio Demon Internet HellRegistered User regular
    Here's another one, and by the way, this one is my fucking favorite because it's about economists being fucking stupid. "What Minimum-Wage Foes Got Wrong About Seattle" - it was from the closing week of October so forgive me if it was covered in the last thread but this shit is just magical. Economists thought increased minimum wage would hurt the economy. They at least were willing to look at the data and go "oh shit really?" This quote in particular though tickles me.
    However, the authors still seem perplexed about why they went awry in the first place.
    And all I can think is to play them the first 30 seconds of this Lewis Black routine. Replace unemployment with higher wages, it's the same thing; "THAT STIMULATES THE FUCKING ECONOMY TOO."

    Centrism is just the cowardly way to be a bigot w/o being explicit about it.
    American politics isn't 4D chess, it's just if you give a shit about other people or not.
    FencingsaxL Ron HowardTicaldfjamMrVyngaardQuidKruitebrynhrtmnMatevEriktheVikingGamerLoisLaneMartini_PhilosopherJoolanderoverride367Giggles_Funsworth
  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    That's capitalism working as intended.

    ViskodDoodmanntynicYamiB.
  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    I remember Lewis Black's tax special where he interviewed people on the street about what they did with their money from W to simulate the economy and the first guy he came to laughed and said "I paid the rent." I also remember from that special an ignorant wealthy woman that wanted a flat tax so "everybody pays the same that way you're not being punished for being smarter, better, richer, whatever."

    Artereis wrote: »
    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    Paying bills does stimulate the economy if you give money to people who can't pay bills.

    PSN: idontworkhere582 | CFN: idontworkhere | Steam: lordbutters
    XaquinmonikerMrVyngaardGnome-InterruptusPolaritieKarozCaptain InertiabrynhrtmnMatevElldrenFencingsaxtynicLoisLaneMartini_PhilosopherBandableoverride367Giggles_Funsworth
  • HenroidHenroid Radio Demon Internet HellRegistered User regular
    The thing about economy stimulus is that it has to be a long-term and permanent solution. A one-time "here's $400!" doesn't do shit.

    Centrism is just the cowardly way to be a bigot w/o being explicit about it.
    American politics isn't 4D chess, it's just if you give a shit about other people or not.
    SleepDoodmannRedTideMrVyngaardButtersHefflingTNTrooperbrynhrtmnMatevElldrenFencingsaxtynicthatassemblyguyLoisLaneMartini_PhilosopherJoolanderoverride367
  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    edited November 12
    Henroid wrote: »
    The thing about economy stimulus is that it has to be a long-term and permanent solution. A one-time "here's $400!" doesn't do shit.

    Eh. Counter-cyclical stimulus is a thing.

    Long term stimulus feels like it's pushing the definition of stimulus into uselessness. That feels like it bleeds into general economic strategy, which it feels like the US (and UK) don't really have anymore.

    Edit: Of course as soon as I hit post I realize that stuff like Food Stamps is sorta long term in that it is established and maintained all the time but automatically scales upwards to act counter-cyclically.

    DevoutlyApathetic on
  • L Ron HowardL Ron Howard Registered User regular
    Henroid wrote: »
    Here's another one, and by the way, this one is my fucking favorite because it's about economists being fucking stupid. "What Minimum-Wage Foes Got Wrong About Seattle" - it was from the closing week of October so forgive me if it was covered in the last thread but this shit is just magical. Economists thought increased minimum wage would hurt the economy. They at least were willing to look at the data and go "oh shit really?" This quote in particular though tickles me.
    However, the authors still seem perplexed about why they went awry in the first place.
    And all I can think is to play them the first 30 seconds of this Lewis Black routine. Replace unemployment with higher wages, it's the same thing; "THAT STIMULATES THE FUCKING ECONOMY TOO."

    Oh man, this is a great opinion piece.
    But we can’t emphasize enough just how wrong many of the initial analyses of the wage increase have been. Cognitive dissonance is a powerful force. If your ideology includes the belief that all government attempts at raising living standards are doomed, then of course you are going to be against mandated minimum wages. The problem occurs when these folks are confronted by facts that are at odds with their belief systems. The options are to either rethink your ideology or alternatively ignore the data. Most participants seem to have done the latter. Kudos to the University of Washington team for at least trying to incorporate the facts into their latest research

    HenroidDoodmannkimeMarty81TicaldfjamKayne Red RobeMrVyngaardGnome-InterruptusPolaritieButtersForarQuidCommander ZoomTNTrooperDiplominatorMatevElldrenFencingsaxtynicLoisLaneMartini_PhilosopherJoolanderBandableSkeithGiggles_Funsworth
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited November 12
    Henroid wrote: »
    The thing about economy stimulus is that it has to be a long-term and permanent solution. A one-time "here's $400!" doesn't do shit.

    Eh. Counter-cyclical stimulus is a thing.

    Long term stimulus feels like it's pushing the definition of stimulus into uselessness. That feels like it bleeds into general economic strategy, which it feels like the US (and UK) don't really have anymore.

    Edit: Of course as soon as I hit post I realize that stuff like Food Stamps is sorta long term in that it is established and maintained all the time but automatically scales upwards to act counter-cyclically.

    Safety net programs are long term and counter-cyclical but aren't generally what's meant by economic stimulus. Which, is basically stuff like ARRA. Which is best when governments allow themselves to take a long view due to their immortality.

    Fixing a bridge is basically good in and of itself since, you know, bridge collapses are bad. Putting a contract out to bid when the economy is on fire likely means there is a supply constraint and DOT is crowding out other investments, and paying a premium to do so. If demand has collapsed, however, you are no longer crowding out funds but putting what would otherwise be excess capacity to work. Similar for lots of other stuff too. Digitizing 1890's court decisions, say. Expand in the bust, but cut/retrench in the expansion to prepare for the inevitable next bust. &c. Republicans generally want to go the other way 'round. Cut in the boom and then cut even harder in the bust.

    moniker on
  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Oh now the stock market isn't doing great and it's the democrats fault.

    The prospect of Presidential Harassment by the Dems is causing the Stock Market big headaches!

    Artereis wrote: »
    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
    MorganVGnome-InterruptusshrykeRickRudeMartini_PhilosopherBandableoverride367
  • Edith_Bagot-DixEdith_Bagot-Dix Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    Oh now the stock market isn't doing great and it's the democrats fault.

    The prospect of Presidential Harassment by the Dems is causing the Stock Market big headaches!

    Maybe if he doesn't want all that attention he shouldn't dress like that.



    Also on Steam and PSN: twobadcats
    KarozCaptain InertiaForarMatevFencingsaxRickRudeLoisLaneMartini_PhilosopherSkeithoverride367Giggles_Funsworthdispatch.o
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    Oh now the stock market isn't doing great and it's the democrats fault.

    The prospect of Presidential Harassment by the Dems is causing the Stock Market big headaches!

    Maybe if he doesn't want all that attention he shouldn't dress like that.

    I can't even right a backhanded piece of cruelty about trump because I hate him so much. Still, consider this post to have included a cruel and subtle burn about blaming the victim!

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
    Elldren
  • Edith_Bagot-DixEdith_Bagot-Dix Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Viskod wrote: »
    Oh now the stock market isn't doing great and it's the democrats fault.

    The prospect of Presidential Harassment by the Dems is causing the Stock Market big headaches!

    Maybe if he doesn't want all that attention he shouldn't dress like that.

    I can't even right a backhanded piece of cruelty about trump because I hate him so much. Still, consider this post to have included a cruel and subtle burn about blaming the victim!

    I mean Obama was presidentially harrassed for years and the stock market did great. Maybe Trump should just think of the team and try to enjoy it. Lots of presidents would be flattered.



    Also on Steam and PSN: twobadcats
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