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Like a centipede waiting for the other shoe to drop in [The Economy] thread

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Posts

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Sleep wrote: »
    Heffling wrote: »
    Oh noes, the rich people are feeling the same pain that everyone else has been feeling.

    If you think they are actually going to suffer the consequences, rather than transfer them down the chain to us you're sorely mistaken.

    I mean, there are consequences for the rich, but they exist in terms of reduced access to very good things, and existing in a period where you are making acquisitions with the expectations of gains later. For rich people, a recession is like a tough day at the gym, not as fun as relaxing at home with your friends, but the time when you can build value for the future and not exactly a nightmare.

    Poor people suffer in recessions. In disastrous recessions the middle class suffer too. Short of like, the black plague and its effects on Europe, I don't think we've ever had a recession where the rich have actually LOST anything.

    Still, yesterdays correction was the market being reminded (yet again) that Trump is an insane psychopath who cannot be trusted at the tiller. Everyone is desperate to believe that these tariffs are a bluff, to show China we are serious and about to be ended. Everyone knows that that is the smart play here for a 'tough guy' like Trump. The tariffs were a gamble, but the economy has held the line for a bit, and perhaps Trumps personal brand has benefitted from his show of force. Now its time to end them. Everyone knows this. Every small business owner, every big business owner, every union, every teamster and stock broker. Everyone knows that if Trump kills the tariffs now, he can spin it as if the benefits from removing them are a plus, and create a narrative of growth and ease in trade. Everyone knows the tariffs are a job killer, and that by pulling them down Trump can shift some jobs growth around and make it look like his policies created it. China knows this. EVERYONE in the damn world knows this. And so the market sits and waits for Trump to play the only damn move he can possibly make, and reacts like mad whenever he reaches down to make it, before pulling away.

    But he won't make the move because Trump doesn't make plans. He doesn't understand the market. He doesn't understand what he did, what he is doing, and what he can do in the future. He's just taking random actions. The market and government cannot accept that he is just a bull in a china shop, because the President CANNOT be a bull in a china shop. So they have to respond as if this is all some grand scheme of carefully smashing selected plates to increase the value of others. But its not. He's just an idiot destroying things because he can understand that people like to see them get smashed.

    The waves and waves of panics at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century cost the rich in the loss of complete control over their workforces' lives (due to increasing worldwide demands for labor laws), their monopolies (anti-trust movements), and friendly authoritarian governments in Europe (due to demands for democratization). The Great Depression ended up costing them a greater loss of control due to the Western adoption of social welfare programs and economic reforms during and after WWII.

    The impact of the Great Depression also cost many wealthy at all levels their lives, incomes (both in war losses and wartime taxes), and businesses due to WWII. Many of the mega-rich came out on top, of course, but even then you have holes in their family trees due to members lost in the war.

    I disagree, while workers rights and unionization were a boon for the poor and the middle class, they were also a boon for the wealthy. The wealthy (excluding like, the pope or kings and queens) came out the other side with a healthier and more committed workforce, who were more productive in fewer hours, more educated, and less likely to steal or defraud the rich. They could spend vastly less money on guard labor, and instead could outsource law enforcement to the public police and the strength of the social contract. When you raise up and strengthen the poorest, the richest also benefit.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
    DoodmannYoutubeHeffling
  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    The only rich people that recessions affect are those with veeeery shaky businesses that are just about to collapse anyway. This might, at worst, leave them as semi-retired consultants living in Bermuda.

    The rest might see some numbers go down, but since they are only using the numbers to compare themselves to other rich people (whose numbers are also going down) no big deal.

    They don't have to sacrifice anything material, even to the extent of building a smaller yacht, because after a certain point, wealth is used like a high score. They can't spend all they have. They just want to have more so that other rich people admire them.

    MatevIncenjucarYoutubeHefflingEtiowsa
  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Sleep wrote: »
    Heffling wrote: »
    Oh noes, the rich people are feeling the same pain that everyone else has been feeling.

    If you think they are actually going to suffer the consequences, rather than transfer them down the chain to us you're sorely mistaken.

    I mean, there are consequences for the rich, but they exist in terms of reduced access to very good things, and existing in a period where you are making acquisitions with the expectations of gains later. For rich people, a recession is like a tough day at the gym, not as fun as relaxing at home with your friends, but the time when you can build value for the future and not exactly a nightmare.

    Poor people suffer in recessions. In disastrous recessions the middle class suffer too. Short of like, the black plague and its effects on Europe, I don't think we've ever had a recession where the rich have actually LOST anything.

    Still, yesterdays correction was the market being reminded (yet again) that Trump is an insane psychopath who cannot be trusted at the tiller. Everyone is desperate to believe that these tariffs are a bluff, to show China we are serious and about to be ended. Everyone knows that that is the smart play here for a 'tough guy' like Trump. The tariffs were a gamble, but the economy has held the line for a bit, and perhaps Trumps personal brand has benefitted from his show of force. Now its time to end them. Everyone knows this. Every small business owner, every big business owner, every union, every teamster and stock broker. Everyone knows that if Trump kills the tariffs now, he can spin it as if the benefits from removing them are a plus, and create a narrative of growth and ease in trade. Everyone knows the tariffs are a job killer, and that by pulling them down Trump can shift some jobs growth around and make it look like his policies created it. China knows this. EVERYONE in the damn world knows this. And so the market sits and waits for Trump to play the only damn move he can possibly make, and reacts like mad whenever he reaches down to make it, before pulling away.

    But he won't make the move because Trump doesn't make plans. He doesn't understand the market. He doesn't understand what he did, what he is doing, and what he can do in the future. He's just taking random actions. The market and government cannot accept that he is just a bull in a china shop, because the President CANNOT be a bull in a china shop. So they have to respond as if this is all some grand scheme of carefully smashing selected plates to increase the value of others. But its not. He's just an idiot destroying things because he can understand that people like to see them get smashed.

    The waves and waves of panics at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century cost the rich in the loss of complete control over their workforces' lives (due to increasing worldwide demands for labor laws), their monopolies (anti-trust movements), and friendly authoritarian governments in Europe (due to demands for democratization). The Great Depression ended up costing them a greater loss of control due to the Western adoption of social welfare programs and economic reforms during and after WWII.

    The impact of the Great Depression also cost many wealthy at all levels their lives, incomes (both in war losses and wartime taxes), and businesses due to WWII. Many of the mega-rich came out on top, of course, but even then you have holes in their family trees due to members lost in the war.

    I disagree, while workers rights and unionization were a boon for the poor and the middle class, they were also a boon for the wealthy. The wealthy (excluding like, the pope or kings and queens) came out the other side with a healthier and more committed workforce, who were more productive in fewer hours, more educated, and less likely to steal or defraud the rich. They could spend vastly less money on guard labor, and instead could outsource law enforcement to the public police and the strength of the social contract. When you raise up and strengthen the poorest, the richest also benefit.

    That's the rational read on the changes, of course. But the reality is that the wealthy have spent decades trying to undo those reforms, railing against the government intrusion they represent, because accumulating vast hoards of wealth and power is not actually a rational activity.

    Gnome-InterruptusshrykeMahnmut
  • electricitylikesmeelectricitylikesme Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Sleep wrote: »
    Heffling wrote: »
    Oh noes, the rich people are feeling the same pain that everyone else has been feeling.

    If you think they are actually going to suffer the consequences, rather than transfer them down the chain to us you're sorely mistaken.

    I mean, there are consequences for the rich, but they exist in terms of reduced access to very good things, and existing in a period where you are making acquisitions with the expectations of gains later. For rich people, a recession is like a tough day at the gym, not as fun as relaxing at home with your friends, but the time when you can build value for the future and not exactly a nightmare.

    Poor people suffer in recessions. In disastrous recessions the middle class suffer too. Short of like, the black plague and its effects on Europe, I don't think we've ever had a recession where the rich have actually LOST anything.

    Still, yesterdays correction was the market being reminded (yet again) that Trump is an insane psychopath who cannot be trusted at the tiller. Everyone is desperate to believe that these tariffs are a bluff, to show China we are serious and about to be ended. Everyone knows that that is the smart play here for a 'tough guy' like Trump. The tariffs were a gamble, but the economy has held the line for a bit, and perhaps Trumps personal brand has benefitted from his show of force. Now its time to end them. Everyone knows this. Every small business owner, every big business owner, every union, every teamster and stock broker. Everyone knows that if Trump kills the tariffs now, he can spin it as if the benefits from removing them are a plus, and create a narrative of growth and ease in trade. Everyone knows the tariffs are a job killer, and that by pulling them down Trump can shift some jobs growth around and make it look like his policies created it. China knows this. EVERYONE in the damn world knows this. And so the market sits and waits for Trump to play the only damn move he can possibly make, and reacts like mad whenever he reaches down to make it, before pulling away.

    But he won't make the move because Trump doesn't make plans. He doesn't understand the market. He doesn't understand what he did, what he is doing, and what he can do in the future. He's just taking random actions. The market and government cannot accept that he is just a bull in a china shop, because the President CANNOT be a bull in a china shop. So they have to respond as if this is all some grand scheme of carefully smashing selected plates to increase the value of others. But its not. He's just an idiot destroying things because he can understand that people like to see them get smashed.

    The waves and waves of panics at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century cost the rich in the loss of complete control over their workforces' lives (due to increasing worldwide demands for labor laws), their monopolies (anti-trust movements), and friendly authoritarian governments in Europe (due to demands for democratization). The Great Depression ended up costing them a greater loss of control due to the Western adoption of social welfare programs and economic reforms during and after WWII.

    The impact of the Great Depression also cost many wealthy at all levels their lives, incomes (both in war losses and wartime taxes), and businesses due to WWII. Many of the mega-rich came out on top, of course, but even then you have holes in their family trees due to members lost in the war.

    I disagree, while workers rights and unionization were a boon for the poor and the middle class, they were also a boon for the wealthy. The wealthy (excluding like, the pope or kings and queens) came out the other side with a healthier and more committed workforce, who were more productive in fewer hours, more educated, and less likely to steal or defraud the rich. They could spend vastly less money on guard labor, and instead could outsource law enforcement to the public police and the strength of the social contract. When you raise up and strengthen the poorest, the richest also benefit.

    That's the rational read on the changes, of course. But the reality is that the wealthy have spent decades trying to undo those reforms, railing against the government intrusion they represent, because accumulating vast hoards of wealth and power is not actually a rational activity.

    Yeah the jump in here is that the wealthy don't care about productivity increases. They care about power. It's a pretty short wealth ceiling before you have more then you materially do anything useful with, but there's always another person's will to subjugate to your own and feel entitled to do so.

    PhillisheremonikerGnome-InterruptusMatevDoodmannLovelyIncenjucarMahnmutHefflingQuidDisruptedCapitalistBlackDragon480
  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    They can run in and buy up everything super cheap, and wait for it to make money for them once everything rebounds.

    They also get bailouts while the rest of us face foreclosures

    PSN: idontworkhere582 | CFN: idontworkhere | Steam: lordbutters
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  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    if you have money, recessions are just creators of undervalued assets to be gobbled up and allow you to further consolidate your wealth and power.

    if you're everyone else, market downturns are when you lose your job or your income doesn't rise with inflation or you lose your house.

    aeNqQM9.jpg
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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Sleep wrote: »
    Heffling wrote: »
    Oh noes, the rich people are feeling the same pain that everyone else has been feeling.

    If you think they are actually going to suffer the consequences, rather than transfer them down the chain to us you're sorely mistaken.

    I mean, there are consequences for the rich, but they exist in terms of reduced access to very good things, and existing in a period where you are making acquisitions with the expectations of gains later. For rich people, a recession is like a tough day at the gym, not as fun as relaxing at home with your friends, but the time when you can build value for the future and not exactly a nightmare.

    Poor people suffer in recessions. In disastrous recessions the middle class suffer too. Short of like, the black plague and its effects on Europe, I don't think we've ever had a recession where the rich have actually LOST anything.

    Still, yesterdays correction was the market being reminded (yet again) that Trump is an insane psychopath who cannot be trusted at the tiller. Everyone is desperate to believe that these tariffs are a bluff, to show China we are serious and about to be ended. Everyone knows that that is the smart play here for a 'tough guy' like Trump. The tariffs were a gamble, but the economy has held the line for a bit, and perhaps Trumps personal brand has benefitted from his show of force. Now its time to end them. Everyone knows this. Every small business owner, every big business owner, every union, every teamster and stock broker. Everyone knows that if Trump kills the tariffs now, he can spin it as if the benefits from removing them are a plus, and create a narrative of growth and ease in trade. Everyone knows the tariffs are a job killer, and that by pulling them down Trump can shift some jobs growth around and make it look like his policies created it. China knows this. EVERYONE in the damn world knows this. And so the market sits and waits for Trump to play the only damn move he can possibly make, and reacts like mad whenever he reaches down to make it, before pulling away.

    But he won't make the move because Trump doesn't make plans. He doesn't understand the market. He doesn't understand what he did, what he is doing, and what he can do in the future. He's just taking random actions. The market and government cannot accept that he is just a bull in a china shop, because the President CANNOT be a bull in a china shop. So they have to respond as if this is all some grand scheme of carefully smashing selected plates to increase the value of others. But its not. He's just an idiot destroying things because he can understand that people like to see them get smashed.

    The waves and waves of panics at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century cost the rich in the loss of complete control over their workforces' lives (due to increasing worldwide demands for labor laws), their monopolies (anti-trust movements), and friendly authoritarian governments in Europe (due to demands for democratization). The Great Depression ended up costing them a greater loss of control due to the Western adoption of social welfare programs and economic reforms during and after WWII.

    The impact of the Great Depression also cost many wealthy at all levels their lives, incomes (both in war losses and wartime taxes), and businesses due to WWII. Many of the mega-rich came out on top, of course, but even then you have holes in their family trees due to members lost in the war.

    I disagree, while workers rights and unionization were a boon for the poor and the middle class, they were also a boon for the wealthy. The wealthy (excluding like, the pope or kings and queens) came out the other side with a healthier and more committed workforce, who were more productive in fewer hours, more educated, and less likely to steal or defraud the rich. They could spend vastly less money on guard labor, and instead could outsource law enforcement to the public police and the strength of the social contract. When you raise up and strengthen the poorest, the richest also benefit.

    That's the rational read on the changes, of course. But the reality is that the wealthy have spent decades trying to undo those reforms, railing against the government intrusion they represent, because accumulating vast hoards of wealth and power is not actually a rational activity.

    Yeah the jump in here is that the wealthy don't care about productivity increases. They care about power. It's a pretty short wealth ceiling before you have more then you materially do anything useful with, but there's always another person's will to subjugate to your own and feel entitled to do so.

    I would argue that other than the VERY wealthiest and most powerful before the reforms to society, the fact that the reforms made society so much stronger and more cohesive also gave the rich more power and influence. Prior to the late 18th century the state was a vaguely ephemereal thing in peoples lives. There were some huge national, and international, companies but the weakness of the state and the challenges of enforcing law made them rare. Those who owned those companies, became immensely powerful but (for example) their influence in the daily lives and thoughts of the poor and those who lived outside the biggest cities were limited. The reforms of the late 18th and early 19th centuries created the functional state, and the functional state enables the creation of vast amounts of power for the rich to control.

    If you are looking for something for the rich to be upset about there then it can only be expressed as...

    1) The challenges of the rise of an alternate power, national governments, which could clash with them on a stage they previously had the only hand in. They had more power and influence over more people, but they were not the only ones who had power and influence in the domestic sphere. However, the stability of the national governments gave them new international influence.
    2) The loss of power for those who were the very tippy top in the old structure

    Bill Gates influences and informs more people than Rockefeller ever did.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
    CelestialBadgerMatev
  • JepheryJephery Registered User regular
    The only rich people that recessions affect are those with veeeery shaky businesses that are just about to collapse anyway. This might, at worst, leave them as semi-retired consultants living in Bermuda.

    The rest might see some numbers go down, but since they are only using the numbers to compare themselves to other rich people (whose numbers are also going down) no big deal.

    They don't have to sacrifice anything material, even to the extent of building a smaller yacht, because after a certain point, wealth is used like a high score. They can't spend all they have. They just want to have more so that other rich people admire them.

    As the saying goes, if you want to stay rich, you use other peoples' money, not your own.

    }
    "Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
    RickRudeRchanen
  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Hell, the very fact that
    moniker wrote: »
    They can run in and buy up everything super cheap, and wait for it to make money for them once everything rebounds.

    Also, they are generally the ones handing out the pink slips, not receiving them.

    Even at the peak of the Great Recession 90% of the labor force was still employed. Millionaires probably made up a larger proportion of those folks.

    Depending on your definition of labor force and employed.

    HefflingYoutube
  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Market Futures for today are looking really grim

  • Edith_Bagot-DixEdith_Bagot-Dix Registered User regular
    Market Futures for today are looking really grim

    The S&P mini flash crashed this morning and the CME's velocity controls kicked in. Total volume in this market was over 36,000 contracts in the first 10 minutes. The normal volume is on the order of 1000. S&P mini futures dropped from 2713.25 to 2649.75. This would roughly correspond to an expected 650 point drop in the S&P 500...on top of the 800 point drop on Monday.



    Also on Steam and PSN: twobadcats
  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    Yeah i'm interested in what happens to the Russell 2000 today

    moniker
  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Market Futures for today are looking really grim

    The S&P mini flash crashed this morning and the CME's velocity controls kicked in. Total volume in this market was over 36,000 contracts in the first 10 minutes. The normal volume is on the order of 1000. S&P mini futures dropped from 2713.25 to 2649.75. This would roughly correspond to an expected 650 point drop in the S&P 500...on top of the 800 point drop on Monday.

    Curse those Democrats.

    Artereis wrote: »
    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
    MorganVL Ron HowardYoutube
  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    edited December 6
    Fuck me we started 6% down in the russell 2000... come on buddy, turn around

    Edit: nah, it was the shitty widget issue, we only started with a 1.7% drop

    Sleep on
  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Trump is going to end up creating the reality he mistakenly thinks we already lived in.
    The U.S. trade deficit jumped to a 10-year high in October as soybean exports continued to fall and imports of consumer goods rose to a record high, suggesting the Trump administration’s tariff-related measures to shrink the trade gap likely have been ineffective.

    The Commerce Department said on Thursday the trade deficit increased 1.7 percent to $55.5 billion, the highest level since October 2008. The trade gap has now widened for a five straight months. Data for September was revised to show the deficit rising to $54.6 billion instead of the previously reported $54.0 billion.

    The politically sensitive goods trade deficit with China surged 7.1 percent to a record $43.1 billion in October.

    Artereis wrote: »
    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
    SmrtnikthatassemblyguyMartini_PhilosopherButtersYoutube
  • OghulkOghulk Aka Mr. RIBS Aka Andre 3001Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    Trump is going to end up creating the reality he mistakenly thinks we already lived in.
    The U.S. trade deficit jumped to a 10-year high in October as soybean exports continued to fall and imports of consumer goods rose to a record high, suggesting the Trump administration’s tariff-related measures to shrink the trade gap likely have been ineffective.

    The Commerce Department said on Thursday the trade deficit increased 1.7 percent to $55.5 billion, the highest level since October 2008. The trade gap has now widened for a five straight months. Data for September was revised to show the deficit rising to $54.6 billion instead of the previously reported $54.0 billion.

    The politically sensitive goods trade deficit with China surged 7.1 percent to a record $43.1 billion in October.

    Ok this is fucking funny

    raoADVy.png
    I ZimbraElldrenGnome-InterruptusBurnageshrykemonikermRahmaniMorganVTNTrooperZomroFoolOnTheHillL Ron HowardthatassemblyguyMartini_PhilosopherabotkinKarozDuke 2.0FencingsaxbrynhrtmnSkeithMulysaSemproniusMillCogDisruptedCapitalistelectricitylikesmeEtiowsaBlackDragon480
  • SicariiSicarii The Roose is Loose Registered User regular
    So overall trade deficit increase because we sold less product abroad due to tariffs...

    How unexpected!

    gotsig.jpg
    L Ron HowardAegisOrcaYoutubeBlackDragon480
  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    Russell 2000 is down 2% already today. Dow is down almost 3%.

  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    Just cause I like data visualization, if you look at the line graph for all of the major indexes today they are basically all following the same pattern. Start low, possibly on a downward trajectory, bounce, bounce and kinda hold on, free fall again. The nasdaq started at the first bounce. Arca oil is following the track at this point even. I have no idea the significance of the pattern I'm just noticing it as I keep checkin up on em, and losing track of which graph I'm checking. Im betting we're just gonna bounce our way down the mountainside today in general it's just interesting that the trend lines on everything are kinda synching up today.

  • ElldrenElldren Is a woman dammit I'm a good person yes it's trueRegistered User regular
    Sleep wrote: »
    Just cause I like data visualization, if you look at the line graph for all of the major indexes today they are basically all following the same pattern. Start low, possibly on a downward trajectory, bounce, bounce and kinda hold on, free fall again. The nasdaq started at the first bounce. Arca oil is following the track at this point even. I have no idea the significance of the pattern I'm just noticing it as I keep checkin up on em, and losing track of which graph I'm checking. Im betting we're just gonna bounce our way down the mountainside today in general it's just interesting that the trend lines on everything are kinda synching up today.

    the answer is automated trading

    fuck gendered marketing
    destroyah87DevoutlyApatheticthatassemblyguyGnome-InterruptusButtersmonikerSmrtnikshrykeDuke 2.0DaenrisCommander ZoomFencingsaxMillkimeMatevLostNinjaDark Raven Xwebguy20DoodmannHeffling
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Elldren wrote: »
    Sleep wrote: »
    Just cause I like data visualization, if you look at the line graph for all of the major indexes today they are basically all following the same pattern. Start low, possibly on a downward trajectory, bounce, bounce and kinda hold on, free fall again. The nasdaq started at the first bounce. Arca oil is following the track at this point even. I have no idea the significance of the pattern I'm just noticing it as I keep checkin up on em, and losing track of which graph I'm checking. Im betting we're just gonna bounce our way down the mountainside today in general it's just interesting that the trend lines on everything are kinda synching up today.

    the answer is automated trading

    One of the biggest blights on economic progress. And ine that seems destined to cause a massive crash all on it's own.

    IncenjucarSleepGnome-InterruptusabotkinButtersmonikershrykeFencingsaxYoutubeMillMatevLostNinjaElldrenDoodmannBlackDragon480Heffling
  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    Elldren wrote: »
    Sleep wrote: »
    Just cause I like data visualization, if you look at the line graph for all of the major indexes today they are basically all following the same pattern. Start low, possibly on a downward trajectory, bounce, bounce and kinda hold on, free fall again. The nasdaq started at the first bounce. Arca oil is following the track at this point even. I have no idea the significance of the pattern I'm just noticing it as I keep checkin up on em, and losing track of which graph I'm checking. Im betting we're just gonna bounce our way down the mountainside today in general it's just interesting that the trend lines on everything are kinda synching up today.

    the answer is automated trading

    I mean yeah to some extent, the thing is automated trading happens every day, and normally the trend lines don't synch up like they are today. Like arca oil following the general trend lines is just fuckin weird fron my totally casual and by no means regular observation. The reason I usually ignore that index is because nothing crazy usually happens there, it fluctuates like other indexes but usually not drastically, and usually in a way that seems almost disconnected from the rest of the indexes.

  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    Like the nasdaq index seems to be leading the trend line, I'm guessing we're going to bounce again on all the indexes real quick as we head into lunch.

  • Edith_Bagot-DixEdith_Bagot-Dix Registered User regular
    Elldren wrote: »
    Sleep wrote: »
    Just cause I like data visualization, if you look at the line graph for all of the major indexes today they are basically all following the same pattern. Start low, possibly on a downward trajectory, bounce, bounce and kinda hold on, free fall again. The nasdaq started at the first bounce. Arca oil is following the track at this point even. I have no idea the significance of the pattern I'm just noticing it as I keep checkin up on em, and losing track of which graph I'm checking. Im betting we're just gonna bounce our way down the mountainside today in general it's just interesting that the trend lines on everything are kinda synching up today.

    the answer is automated trading

    Enh...the whole CTA industry is like $300 billion AUM. That's substantial but not dominant.
    The real issue is, in my book, the over-reliance on modeling. Large firms have everything dictated by complex models (which is great because when it goes wrong, no one is truly responsible) and what winds up happening is that everything just starts trading in sync, like clockwork, until something insane happens and the models break.



    Also on Steam and PSN: twobadcats
  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    "something insane happens" is like, the earth's subtitle since 2015.

    aeNqQM9.jpg
    Martini_PhilosopherMorganVCommander ZoomFencingsaxthatassemblyguykimeMatevElldrenBlackDragon480Heffling
  • silence1186silence1186 Character shields down! As a wingmanRegistered User regular
    Would a transaction tax slow down trading? Even if it was a penny? Just to stem the bleeding from machine trading.

    V wrote:
    Words will always retain their power. Words offer the means to meaning, and for those who will listen, the enunciation of truth.

  • Edith_Bagot-DixEdith_Bagot-Dix Registered User regular
    Would a transaction tax slow down trading? Even if it was a penny? Just to stem the bleeding from machine trading.

    Most trading is already much slower than people commonly believe. The HFT craze is largely over in the industry. People have HFT desks to get information about market microstructure (depth of book, etc) not to execute their main trading strategies.
    Right now it would not be uncommon to see strategies that limit trading to something like 1% of open interest in the market per minute. So on a typical day for the S&P 500 mini, you are talking about the algo being limited to trading 10-20 contracts per minute. Even at a penny a contract, you wouldn't make much difference. That's barely noticeable slippage.



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  • Marty81Marty81 Registered User regular
    Would a transaction tax slow down trading? Even if it was a penny? Just to stem the bleeding from machine trading.

    We already have a selling tax.

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/secfee.asp

  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    Oh man looks like everyone's getting back from lunch and continuing their sell offs.

  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    edited December 6
    So it actually looks like we bounced our way up the mountain today. If the markets hadn't been knee capped in the future market since tuesday, .especially with the arrest this morning right before open, today probably woulda been a rally to reverse Tuesday's close. Instead we're probably looking to just about level off down around 1% in all the indexes below tuesday's losses, unless something crazy happens in the next 20 minutes.

    Sleep on
  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    What even

    SleepMrVyngaard
  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    edited December 6
    We recovered from an overnight 2% to 4% plunge in order to end up just about back where we were at the end of tuesday's 2% to 4% plunge.

    Maybe we luck out and get a repeat climb tomorrow and erase tuesday's losses but at the moment all the indexes are pretty much sitting within 1% of where we started the year, and not all of the indexes are positive in that 1%.

    Just so i can get reassurance from someone smarter than me... drastic multi percentage point movement like this in a single day is just both uncommon and generally bad right?

    Like it inserts uncertainty and volatility into something you want to try to predict.

    Sleep on
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    What even

    The market will fluctuate.

    SleepCommander ZoomElldren
  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Must have been the hints that the Fed is off backing off interest rate increases?

  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Speculation of speculation

    YoutubeElldren
  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular

    steam_sig.png
    Steam, Warframe: Megajoule
    KarozGnome-Interruptus
  • jothkijothki Registered User regular
    edited December 8
    MorganV wrote: »
    Elldren wrote: »
    Sleep wrote: »
    Just cause I like data visualization, if you look at the line graph for all of the major indexes today they are basically all following the same pattern. Start low, possibly on a downward trajectory, bounce, bounce and kinda hold on, free fall again. The nasdaq started at the first bounce. Arca oil is following the track at this point even. I have no idea the significance of the pattern I'm just noticing it as I keep checkin up on em, and losing track of which graph I'm checking. Im betting we're just gonna bounce our way down the mountainside today in general it's just interesting that the trend lines on everything are kinda synching up today.

    the answer is automated trading

    One of the biggest blights on economic progress. And ine that seems destined to cause a massive crash all on it's own.

    One of the most significant factors keeping the market stable is the fact that in all honesty, the stock market is basically worth what the people involved in it want it to be worth. Automated trading cuts human whims out of the picture.

    jothki on
    FencingsaxSleep
  • PhasenPhasen 2020 or bustRegistered User regular
    The best way I've heard the stock market described is that it's horoscopes for rich white dudes.

    psn: PhasenWeeple
    SleepMartini_PhilosopherTicaldfjamFoolOnTheHillthatassemblyguyEtiowsaIncenjucarHeffling
  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited December 7
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-is-gripped-by-market-volatilityand-his-role-in-it-1544199996
    Publicly, Mr. Trump has often dismissed market fluctuations as part of a natural correction, but several people close to the president say he places as much importance on the health of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for validation of his job performance as he does with his polling numbers.

    While at the White House, he will often keep the TV tuned to business channels and watch the Dow’s minute-to-minute movements, people close to the White House say. He would get excited about triple-digit gains in a single day and question aides about how certain actions might influence the market, people familiar with the matter said. Asked about Mr. Trump’s attention to the stock market, one person close to the White House said: “He’s glued to it.”
    The administration’s decision to announce success in his weekend meeting with China, absent any concrete steps, was widely acknowledged by Wall Street. Analysts at Morgan Stanley declared it indicative of the administration’s “markets-sensitive” approach to policy-making.

    Nomura Securities said that it was yet “another indication that President Trump is sensitive to the market and economic disruptions that his trade policies can generate. That sensitivity may suggest that there are limits on how he will push those policies.”

    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, speaking at The Wall Street Journal CEO Council in Washington on Tuesday, acknowledged that “the (stock) market is now in a wait and see” moment with regard to China: “Is there going to be a real deal at the end of 90 days or not?”
    This is kind of a terrible thing to be overly concerned about instead of other economic metrics.

    Couscous on
    monikerGnome-Interruptusdestroyah87Duke 2.0Phoenix-DthatassemblyguySleepCommander ZoomkimeElldrenMillSealBlackDragon480HefflingFencingsaxYoutubeSkeithdurandal4532
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-is-gripped-by-market-volatilityand-his-role-in-it-1544199996
    Publicly, Mr. Trump has often dismissed market fluctuations as part of a natural correction, but several people close to the president say he places as much importance on the health of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for validation of his job performance as he does with his polling numbers.

    While at the White House, he will often keep the TV tuned to business channels and watch the Dow’s minute-to-minute movements, people close to the White House say. He would get excited about triple-digit gains in a single day and question aides about how certain actions might influence the market, people familiar with the matter said. Asked about Mr. Trump’s attention to the stock market, one person close to the White House said: “He’s glued to it.”
    The administration’s decision to announce success in his weekend meeting with China, absent any concrete steps, was widely acknowledged by Wall Street. Analysts at Morgan Stanley declared it indicative of the administration’s “markets-sensitive” approach to policy-making.

    Nomura Securities said that it was yet “another indication that President Trump is sensitive to the market and economic disruptions that his trade policies can generate. That sensitivity may suggest that there are limits on how he will push those policies.”

    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, speaking at The Wall Street Journal CEO Council in Washington on Tuesday, acknowledged that “the (stock) market is now in a wait and see” moment with regard to China: “Is there going to be a real deal at the end of 90 days or not?”
    This is kind of a terrible thing to be overly concerned about instead of other economic metrics.

    He was using it to see he did a good job early in his Presidency so now he's stuck using it because he's a manbaby.

    SleepSmrtnikYoutubedurandal4532
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