you know .... I kind of wonder if the only thing keeping us from a huge recession is the fact that 75% of the country will continue their spending habits as they have because they still don't have any more money due to the last recession.
like for me? so what if there's a recession? I'm going to keep spending like I haven't had a cost of living increase in a decade because I haven't had a cost of living increase in a goddamn decade.
If there is a recession, the banks will drive down interest rates again. If they drive down interest rates again, your frugal ways will be punished, as you won't be able to earn interest on your savings.
In addition, the slight pressure there is to increase wages and better working conditions right now will fade away.
pfffahahha
interest rates (at least at my bank) are basically nothing anyway. Like I typically earn about 5 cents a year in my savings account.
I'm not saying things can't or won't get worse, but I am saying that a lot of americans will keep on keeping on because they still haven't bounced back from the last one.
you know .... I kind of wonder if the only thing keeping us from a huge recession is the fact that 75% of the country will continue their spending habits as they have because they still don't have any more money due to the last recession.
like for me? so what if there's a recession? I'm going to keep spending like I haven't had a cost of living increase in a decade because I haven't had a cost of living increase in a goddamn decade.
Unemployment is the real scary part of a recession. I remember how hard it was to get a job in 2008, and I love how easy it has been to get work the last couple years. And it'll suck for people who don't have a great safety net.
you know .... I kind of wonder if the only thing keeping us from a huge recession is the fact that 75% of the country will continue their spending habits as they have because they still don't have any more money due to the last recession.
like for me? so what if there's a recession? I'm going to keep spending like I haven't had a cost of living increase in a decade because I haven't had a cost of living increase in a goddamn decade.
If there is a recession, the banks will drive down interest rates again. If they drive down interest rates again, your frugal ways will be punished, as you won't be able to earn interest on your savings.
In addition, the slight pressure there is to increase wages and better working conditions right now will fade away.
pfffahahha
interest rates (at least at my bank) are basically nothing anyway. Like I typically earn about 5 cents a year in my savings account.
I'm not saying things can't or won't get worse, but I am saying that a lot of americans will keep on keeping on because they still haven't bounced back from the last one.
Move your money to a better bank immediately. You can open an ally savings account literally right now, rather than replying to this email and earn 2% interest on a free to access, no penalty, get the money whenever you want savings account. You can do even better with a few hours research. You can keep your current bank account and just use it for your paychecks, and transfer the savings for free to the better bank.
Interest rates HAVE gone up at the decent banks. By leaving your money in a zero % account, you may as well just be posting a fraction of your paycheck to the CEO of your bank. Bank rates are low because noone is moving their money to better rate locations, so the banks are just screwing you over for being lazy.
Recessions redistribute even more power and wealth to capital
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AstaerethIn the belly of the beastRegistered Userregular
Courtesy an NBC reporter, this transcript of the exchange between reporter Terry Moran and professional lie monster Sarah Sanders:
Terry Moran: With the deficit ballooning to over a trillion dollars under this president where are the additional monies for this wall going to come from and why is he asking the American taxpayer for them when he promised Mexico was going to pay
Sarah Sanders: Look, we're not asking American taxpayers for that. We are looking at existing funding through other agencies right now that we can draw on to do that immediately. The president has been clear that the USMCA deal would provide additional revenue through that deal that would show that Mexico has paid for the wall.
Moran: The trade benefits if there are any don't go to the Treasury
Sanders: He's saying that the revenue provided in the money that would be saved through the USMCA deal would pay for the wall four times over. And by doing that new trade deal, we have the opportunity to pay for the wall.
Moran: The trade benefits go to private citizens. They don't go do the United States Treasury
Sanders: He's talking about the general revenue that comes from that.
Moran: You're going to tax...
Sanders: No, we're not taxing. We're talking about additional revenue that wouldn't have existed without the president getting a new deal.
Moran: Have you done the math on that?
Sanders: There have been a number of things that we have looked at and which we know will have additional revenue that comes in through the USMCA ... we think there will be more than that that comes in.
That thing I wrote about not having a col increase in a decade wasn't exaggeration.
I'm going to leave it at that though as I don't want to take us off the economy of the world into the economy of xaquin
You just said you had a savings account, and it earned 5c a year. If you have a small balance at a big three bank, that probably means you are earning about 0.02 % interest. Ally will give you 100 times that, turning your 5c into $5. And that's a free trip to in and out for xaquin.
It's also an egarious fuck about so you can get 4.95 a year. He'd be better off spending the time changing banks, I dunno, mowing the neighbour's lawn for ten dollars. Hot damn, two years interest! The problem isn't that you can't make money off savings but that people can't save because they have no spare money.
I live in my overdraft myself, savings are the opposite of my immediate concern. If I ended my month in the black, I'd be happy!
Man watching the indexes today is kinda crazy. You can see the hope till about 10 minutes ago when everything just immediately dropped off cause of the Fed's interest rate hike.
Still an hour and a half of trading to do, but that was a pretty straight line 1% drop almost across the board.
Anyone got an idea what the strategic changes are around such a rate hike?
The economy is doing well and unemployment is pretty comfortably under the natural rate so the Fed doesn't feel like we need as much expansionary monetary policy as we've had the past decade. The Fed is probably worried that if the rates are left too low for much longer that we would risk increasing inflation, so they're slowly upping them to try and head that off.
The economy is doing well and unemployment is pretty comfortably under the natural rate so the Fed doesn't feel like we need as much expansionary monetary policy as we've had the past decade. The Fed is probably worried that if the rates are left too low for much longer that we would risk increasing inflation, so they're slowly upping them to try and head that off.
The best policy at this point would to double down on that anti-expansionary by hitting the top line tax rates with a medium hike. Force those liquid assets to seek investments instead of sitting around in coffers. This would spur the unemployment to remain where it is and possibly increase pay through competitive pressures. That would be a great start to a long term uptick in general economic conditions.
All opinions are my own and in no way reflect that of my employer.
Powell thinks we need a more “normal” rate regime and is trying to get us there while he’s got a cushion of an ok to “not bad” economy, regardless of there being no typical inflationary pressure to do so as of 12/19/18
Man watching the indexes today is kinda crazy. You can see the hope till about 10 minutes ago when everything just immediately dropped off cause of the Fed's interest rate hike.
What I saw was a bunch of big players that already knew what Powell was gonna do pump the market up as high as they could, then dump it at the highest price point.
I have to imagine that they have some sort of plan for this, at least I'd hope so. The Fed didn't exactly do this out of nowhere. They've said repeatedly that they plan to increase rates. In fact I believe that this rate hike came with a message that they are looking into doing this at least twice next year too.
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
I imagine they also see a recession coming down the line, and want to be able to do something when it hits.
I imagine they also see a recession coming down the line, and want to be able to do something when it hits.
Which is a strange relativist tact to be taking.
I still think the problem is that we never actually recovered from the GR. GDP growth was at almost polulation before so an adjustment due to “too much” makes no sense. And it’s not like people are choosing not to work because they don’t have to
Ya inflation is def not acting how you would expect it to traditionally. Usually a low enough unemployment rate would lead to higher wages and inflation, but nope. Instead we've just been getting the rich hoovering up more wealth.
It's like we have sticky wages but instead of being resistant to getting lower like you normally associate with that term, they're resistant to increasing.
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jungleroomxIt's never too many graves, it's always not enough shovelsRegistered Userregular
Ya inflation is def not acting how you would expect it to traditionally. Usually a low enough unemployment rate would lead to higher wages and inflation, but nope. Instead we've just been getting the rich hoovering up more wealth.
It's like we have sticky wages but instead of being resistant to getting lower like you normally associate with that term, they're resistant to increasing.
When you have a relatively small group of people with all of the control of wages and zero desire to have them go up, then this is what happens.
All the power when it comes to employer/employee relations is firmly in the employers hands.
I imagine they also see a recession coming down the line, and want to be able to do something when it hits.
Which is a strange relativist tact to be taking.
I still think the problem is that we never actually recovered from the GR. GDP growth was at almost polulation before so an adjustment due to “too much” makes no sense. And it’s not like people are choosing not to work because they don’t have to
I think Yellen ascribes to this
Powell is hawkish and I think definitely ascribes to what FS said
Ya inflation is def not acting how you would expect it to traditionally. Usually a low enough unemployment rate would lead to higher wages and inflation, but nope. Instead we've just been getting the rich hoovering up more wealth.
It's like we have sticky wages but instead of being resistant to getting lower like you normally associate with that term, they're resistant to increasing.
They should have kept rates flat, but Trump's Twitter rantings made that untenable since it would make it look like they gave in to political pressure rather than due to economic conditions. If he had just shut the hell up that wouldn't even need to be a consideration, but not behaving like a goose sadly isn't an option.
Powell thinks we need a more “normal” rate regime and is trying to get us there while he’s got a cushion of an ok to “not bad” economy, regardless of there being no typical inflationary pressure to do so as of 12/19/18
Which honestly I respect. We need to get back to more normal rates if for no other reason to give the fed some knobs to turn once the economy starts going south again. if everything is at or near zero there is a very limited amount of things they can do to try to help boost things back up.
Powell thinks we need a more “normal” rate regime and is trying to get us there while he’s got a cushion of an ok to “not bad” economy, regardless of there being no typical inflationary pressure to do so as of 12/19/18
Which honestly I respect. We need to get back to more normal rates if for no other reason to give the fed some knobs to turn once the economy starts going south again. if everything is at or near zero there is a very limited amount of things they can do to try to help boost things back up.
Except raising interest rates faster than the economy can really support will make a Recession more likely to occur in the first place.
Ya inflation is def not acting how you would expect it to traditionally. Usually a low enough unemployment rate would lead to higher wages and inflation, but nope. Instead we've just been getting the rich hoovering up more wealth.
It's like we have sticky wages but instead of being resistant to getting lower like you normally associate with that term, they're resistant to increasing.
Standard IS/LM-S : supply increases should go with demand increases which shifts the LM line and we get increased interest rates/inflation.
But here demand doesn’t go up. The economy improves and demand is flat or only minorly increasing. Interest rates are flat or fall. Answer: Rich are taking all the excess productivity and saving, demand doesn’t increase because there is a consumption multiplier and not a savings multiplier.
It was, and definitely when they realized how the numbers got revised. There were more spending proposals that would have helped. Hell, the Climate Change bill was also a jobs bill. But then Kennedy died and elections happened.
Stocks have fallen what feels like an obscene amount but we're still really just at over a year ago's value. I think if a recession really hits it'll be 2 or 3 year lows.
Stocks have fallen what feels like an obscene amount but we're still really just at over a year ago's value. I think if a recession really hits it'll be 2 or 3 year lows.
A year ago wall St was just coming off the coke high of a massive wealth give back they neither needed nor deserved.
And further policy decisions have helped to erase that and put us in the negative for the year.
Something feels like it's afoot.
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Stocks have fallen what feels like an obscene amount but we're still really just at over a year ago's value. I think if a recession really hits it'll be 2 or 3 year lows.
A year ago wall St was just coming off the coke high of a massive wealth give back they neither needed nor deserved.
And further policy decisions have helped to erase that and put us in the negative for the year.
Something feels like it's afoot.
A spectre is haunting America. The spectre of Republican Government.
Posts
pfffahahha
interest rates (at least at my bank) are basically nothing anyway. Like I typically earn about 5 cents a year in my savings account.
I'm not saying things can't or won't get worse, but I am saying that a lot of americans will keep on keeping on because they still haven't bounced back from the last one.
Unemployment is the real scary part of a recession. I remember how hard it was to get a job in 2008, and I love how easy it has been to get work the last couple years. And it'll suck for people who don't have a great safety net.
Move your money to a better bank immediately. You can open an ally savings account literally right now, rather than replying to this email and earn 2% interest on a free to access, no penalty, get the money whenever you want savings account. You can do even better with a few hours research. You can keep your current bank account and just use it for your paychecks, and transfer the savings for free to the better bank.
Interest rates HAVE gone up at the decent banks. By leaving your money in a zero % account, you may as well just be posting a fraction of your paycheck to the CEO of your bank. Bank rates are low because noone is moving their money to better rate locations, so the banks are just screwing you over for being lazy.
That thing I wrote about not having a col increase in a decade wasn't exaggeration.
I'm going to leave it at that though as I don't want to take us off the economy of the world into the economy of xaquin
You just said you had a savings account, and it earned 5c a year. If you have a small balance at a big three bank, that probably means you are earning about 0.02 % interest. Ally will give you 100 times that, turning your 5c into $5. And that's a free trip to in and out for xaquin.
I live in my overdraft myself, savings are the opposite of my immediate concern. If I ended my month in the black, I'd be happy!
Still an hour and a half of trading to do, but that was a pretty straight line 1% drop almost across the board.
Anyone got an idea what the strategic changes are around such a rate hike?
The best policy at this point would to double down on that anti-expansionary by hitting the top line tax rates with a medium hike. Force those liquid assets to seek investments instead of sitting around in coffers. This would spur the unemployment to remain where it is and possibly increase pay through competitive pressures. That would be a great start to a long term uptick in general economic conditions.
To show they are independent of Trump
Powell thinks we need a more “normal” rate regime and is trying to get us there while he’s got a cushion of an ok to “not bad” economy, regardless of there being no typical inflationary pressure to do so as of 12/19/18
What I saw was a bunch of big players that already knew what Powell was gonna do pump the market up as high as they could, then dump it at the highest price point.
Which is a strange relativist tact to be taking.
I still think the problem is that we never actually recovered from the GR. GDP growth was at almost polulation before so an adjustment due to “too much” makes no sense. And it’s not like people are choosing not to work because they don’t have to
It's like we have sticky wages but instead of being resistant to getting lower like you normally associate with that term, they're resistant to increasing.
When you have a relatively small group of people with all of the control of wages and zero desire to have them go up, then this is what happens.
All the power when it comes to employer/employee relations is firmly in the employers hands.
I think Yellen ascribes to this
Powell is hawkish and I think definitely ascribes to what FS said
Monopsony is a bitch
I imagine a number of them want a recession to happen.
Once you’ve repositioned your balance sheet to profit off it yeah
Some of them are big enough to try and force it too
Recession is just another word for "buy low!"
Which honestly I respect. We need to get back to more normal rates if for no other reason to give the fed some knobs to turn once the economy starts going south again. if everything is at or near zero there is a very limited amount of things they can do to try to help boost things back up.
Except raising interest rates faster than the economy can really support will make a Recession more likely to occur in the first place.
Standard IS/LM-S : supply increases should go with demand increases which shifts the LM line and we get increased interest rates/inflation.
But here demand doesn’t go up. The economy improves and demand is flat or only minorly increasing. Interest rates are flat or fall. Answer: Rich are taking all the excess productivity and saving, demand doesn’t increase because there is a consumption multiplier and not a savings multiplier.
Well, not initially...
It was, and definitely when they realized how the numbers got revised. There were more spending proposals that would have helped. Hell, the Climate Change bill was also a jobs bill. But then Kennedy died and elections happened.
A year ago wall St was just coming off the coke high of a massive wealth give back they neither needed nor deserved.
And further policy decisions have helped to erase that and put us in the negative for the year.
Something feels like it's afoot.
Come Overwatch with meeeee
A spectre is haunting America. The spectre of Republican Government.