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Like a centipede waiting for the other shoe to drop in [The Economy] thread

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Posts

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Yes, let's put tariffs on toys, computers, video game consoles, and cellphones in the holiday shopping season.

    To be fair, 10 days before Christmas most of the things coming into dock are not destined for sale before Christmas.

    They aren't going to implement them then either. They'll kick the can again because of 'breakthrough' something or other. If they wanted to actually implement them they would.

    Elldrennever die
  • JepheryJephery Registered User regular
    edited August 13
    SanderJK wrote: »
    Signals from Germany are tanking. -5% on exports. Mostly attributed to general malaise + crossfire from the tradewar.

    Dutch economy posted minor job losses 2 months in a row after 7 years of growth.

    Brexit is about to hit disaster level.

    Italy is heading towards another election, with fears that their alt-right Salvini will hit close to 40% of the vote. And he wants to get rid of eurozone spending limits. In the aging, high debt, economically sputtering that could lead to another interest crisis quickly. And Italy can't be studded the way Greece was, the debts are too large.

    The Eurozone is looking poised for bad ride.

    Yeah, and the US is only looking at ~2% GDP growth after tax cuts and a massive deficit spending budget. If I were China's economists I would be telling Xi to just hold on for another year and the US would likely be in recession and have to capitulate.

    Jephery on
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  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Jephery wrote: »
    SanderJK wrote: »
    Signals from Germany are tanking. -5% on exports. Mostly attributed to general malaise + crossfire from the tradewar.

    Dutch economy posted minor job losses 2 months in a row after 7 years of growth.

    Brexit is about to hit disaster level.

    Italy is heading towards another election, with fears that their alt-right Salvini will hit close to 40% of the vote. And he wants to get rid of eurozone spending limits. In the aging, high debt, economically sputtering that could lead to another interest crisis quickly. And Italy can't be studded the way Greece was, the debts are too large.

    The Eurozone is looking poised for bad ride.

    Yeah, and the US is only looking at ~2% GDP growth after tax cuts and a massive deficit spending budget. If I were China's economists I would be telling Xi to just hold on for another year and the US would likely be in recession and have to capitulate.

    Or, like the changing of the wind, a Democratic President will be elected in either 2 or 6 years and will be interested in showing how reasonable and business friendly they are.

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  • jothkijothki Registered User regular
    MorganV wrote: »
    Yes, let's put tariffs on toys, computers, video game consoles, and cellphones in the holiday shopping season.

    To be fair, 10 days before Christmas most of the things coming into dock are not destined for sale before Christmas.

    Yeah, if I recall correctly, tariffs either apply to any ship that leaves China after the stated date (which means no ship leaving before December 15th will arrive and unload before Christmas), or arrives in dock before December 15th, which still has to be unloaded, pass customs, ship to the warehouses, ship to distribution, and arrive at retail before Christmas.

    This is absolutely a craven play by the Administration. Kinda the only one they have, though.

    So he's appearing to make Christmas more expensive for Americans, while actually allowing most of the normal profits to go through?

  • GorkGork Registered User regular
    jothki wrote: »
    MorganV wrote: »
    Yes, let's put tariffs on toys, computers, video game consoles, and cellphones in the holiday shopping season.

    To be fair, 10 days before Christmas most of the things coming into dock are not destined for sale before Christmas.

    Yeah, if I recall correctly, tariffs either apply to any ship that leaves China after the stated date (which means no ship leaving before December 15th will arrive and unload before Christmas), or arrives in dock before December 15th, which still has to be unloaded, pass customs, ship to the warehouses, ship to distribution, and arrive at retail before Christmas.

    This is absolutely a craven play by the Administration. Kinda the only one they have, though.

    So he's appearing to make Christmas more expensive for Americans, while actually allowing most of the normal profits to go through?

    I guess the war on Christmas was real, after all!

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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    CNN reporter:


    It is really bad the president is the equivalent of a person demanding that we the horse buggy whip manufacturing jobs back.

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  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    Anybody who has even the barest idea of what digging coal or manufacturing steel actually looks like wants nothing to do with either one. They are hot, horribly dirty and backbreaking work.

    Fuck, I toured a foundry at one point and when they opened a tempering oven I started to sweat like 40 feet away...on the other side of window in another room.

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  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    Anybody who has even the barest idea of what digging coal or manufacturing steel actually looks like wants nothing to do with either one. They are hot, horribly dirty and backbreaking work.

    Fuck, I toured a foundry at one point and when they opened a tempering oven I started to sweat like 40 feet away...on the other side of window in another room.

    I don't support the president's agenda against modernization but this statement is entirely false. Many people take a lot of pride in their work in heavy industry.

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    CNN reporter:


    It is really bad the president is the equivalent of a person demanding that we the horse buggy whip manufacturing jobs back.

    I would be shocked if this wasn't partially true. Because mining coal and making steel are jobs for Real Men.

    Commander ZoomTicaldfjamMatevkimeEtiowsa
  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    Anybody who has even the barest idea of what digging coal or manufacturing steel actually looks like wants nothing to do with either one. They are hot, horribly dirty and backbreaking work.

    Fuck, I toured a foundry at one point and when they opened a tempering oven I started to sweat like 40 feet away...on the other side of window in another room.

    I don't support the president's agenda against modernization but this statement is entirely false. Many people take a lot of pride in their work in heavy industry.

    Yeah, I've heard this from lots of people who haven't worked in industry. It definitely doesn't match my lived experience.

    DoodmannPhillishereTicaldfjam
  • schussschuss Registered User regular
    Do they take pride in it? Sure,but there's a reason they've automated so much of it - it's uncomfortable, dangerous and absolutely relentless. Machines don't care how hot it is if engineered correctly, and can work 24/7.

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  • MillMill Registered User regular
    In the case of coal mines, machines also don't get black lung disease.

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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    I have to imagine a ton of the pride is pretty recent and thanks to labor protections that started around the mid-20th century.

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  • PhasenPhasen Let's Disrupt the 2020 ElectionRegistered User regular
    In my view the pride is derived from the job not so much the work. Coal miners have pride in their job because it can provide for their family and it is what they know. This is the main reason coal jobs coming back is a big deal to them because otherwise they view they are stuck making less money for some other job that is probably a service job that people don't respect.

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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    Coal, even when done in unsafe and terrible conditions, still pays considerably well in the markets that have the mines. In West Virginia, you might start at a mine making 60k+ a year for labor that requires no degree and no formal training beforehand, which is well over the median pay for the region. In Appalachia, where the economy these days is Coal, Chemical, or service for rich out-of-towners buying up the pretty places and pushing out the locals for their little resort towns, the only the first requires little investment of time to get into, and the chemical companies typically require both college degrees and work experience in a state with a very poor higher education system.

    The pride for coal is pride in being able to actually support a family well given your circumstances. It's easy to dismiss it as harmful and exploitative from outside the state, but when you are there it means something different in the context of what options are available.

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Coal and steel jobs have been automated away. We employ fewer than half as many workers for either sector since the 80's and produce more tonnage of both, though coal production is on the decline due to fewer buyers. Also, people who manufacture computers also take pride in their work. Unless they work at Foxconn and are committing suicide due to the exploitative conditions.

    Not that reality matters to our 80's cartoon villain of a President.

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  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Because we dont have Foxconn computer factories and we never will

    Foxconn is already looking at responding to the trade war by shifting production to Vietnam and India

    CelestialBadger
  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    schuss wrote: »
    Do they take pride in it? Sure,but there's a reason they've automated so much of it - it's uncomfortable, dangerous and absolutely relentless. Machines don't care how hot it is if engineered correctly, and can work 24/7.

    As a child of factory workers, I know that factory workers also take huge pride in saving enough money so their children don't have to live the lives they did.

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  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Coal and steel jobs have been automated away. We employ fewer than half as many workers for either sector since the 80's and produce more tonnage of both, though coal production is on the decline due to fewer buyers. Also, people who manufacture computers also take pride in their work. Unless they work at Foxconn and are committing suicide due to the exploitative conditions.

    Not that reality matters to our 80's cartoon villain of a President.

    Hoggish Greedly? No wait, that was the 90s.

    Artereis wrote: »
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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Because we dont have Foxconn computer factories and we never will

    Wisconsin might. Just pay FoxConn $5bn and they'll be happy to hire a couple dozen folks in your State too.

    ArbitraryDescriptorchrishallett83Elldren
  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    schuss wrote: »
    Do they take pride in it? Sure,but there's a reason they've automated so much of it - it's uncomfortable, dangerous and absolutely relentless. Machines don't care how hot it is if engineered correctly, and can work 24/7.

    As a child of factory workers, I know that factory workers also take huge pride in saving enough money so their children don't have to live the lives they did.

    This also is not universal. Many electricians, mechanics, welders, pipe fitters, and heavy equipment operators are happy to see their children in similar jobs.

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  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    schuss wrote: »
    Do they take pride in it? Sure,but there's a reason they've automated so much of it - it's uncomfortable, dangerous and absolutely relentless. Machines don't care how hot it is if engineered correctly, and can work 24/7.

    As a child of factory workers, I know that factory workers also take huge pride in saving enough money so their children don't have to live the lives they did.

    This also is not universal. Many electricians, mechanics, welders, pipe fitters, and heavy equipment operators are happy to see their children in similar jobs.

    Skilled trades are different from menial labor in a factory.

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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited August 14
    Increasing the amount of some of the higher end manufacturing of electronic parts is feasible and would help make other stuff possible because of better supply chains. You can still find manufacturing for various electronics components in the USA. That is something that could be supported by the federal government in a fairly cost effective manner but wouldn't produce any really big headlines like talking about a huge factory being announced followed by smaller headlines talking about how it won't happen.

    Couscous on
  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Polaritie wrote: »
    Butters wrote: »
    schuss wrote: »
    Do they take pride in it? Sure,but there's a reason they've automated so much of it - it's uncomfortable, dangerous and absolutely relentless. Machines don't care how hot it is if engineered correctly, and can work 24/7.

    As a child of factory workers, I know that factory workers also take huge pride in saving enough money so their children don't have to live the lives they did.

    This also is not universal. Many electricians, mechanics, welders, pipe fitters, and heavy equipment operators are happy to see their children in similar jobs.

    Skilled trades are different from menial labor in a factory.

    Factories also require skilled tradesmen. In fact, increasingly so, as the jobs become more "maintain the robots."

    SleepCommander ZoomDoodmannL Ron HowardMarathonButterschrishallett83MatevElldrenschuss
  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    edited August 14
    No, see, they want the old jobs back. The ones the robots took.

    We can just roll back the clock a few decades to when Things Were Better, right? All the politicians say we can, and they wouldn't lie (well, okay, my guy wouldn't)...

    I think on some level, most of these people know this is bullshit, but they want so badly to believe and for it to be true, and/or have no other hope.

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  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    Well, that's easy. Just carpet bomb all of Europe and Asia and South America so nobody else has factories.

    ...You say you don't want WWIII? How else did you think we got the boom of the 50s?

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  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    No, see, they want the old jobs back. The ones the robots took.

    We can just roll back the clock a few decades to when Things Were Better, right? All the politicians say we can, and they wouldn't lie (well, okay, my guy wouldn't)...

    I think on some level, most of these people know this is bullshit, but they want so badly to believe and for it to be true, and/or have no other hope.

    I feel like this is how those anti-tech factions start in 4x games. Couldn't solve the UBI/unemployment issue, outlawed robots.

  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    Polaritie wrote: »
    Well, that's easy. Just carpet bomb all of Europe and Asia and South America so nobody else has factories.

    ...You say you don't want WWIII? How else did you think we got the boom of the 50s?

    Except the effects of the move away from unskilled labor were already being felt in the 1950s. The demand for skilled tradesman increased while the demand for unskilled and semi-skilled labor started to decline. This screwed over black workers the most. Farm employment was falling, which caused problems for black workers who were in the South. The decreased demand for unskilled labor and especially less educated unskilled labor (which was true of more black workers than white workers thanks to racism) hurt the black workers in the North even if you pretend there wasn't a ton of racism. And a lot of unskilled jobs moved to suburbs that were hard for poor black workers to get to or live in because racism. And that was around the time when a lot of businesses started to move to the South to avoid unions that helped guarantee those jobs weren't awful.

    So of course white workers blamed the black workers and justified it because their immigrant forefathers could rise up despite being unskilled laborers.

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  • TaximesTaximes Registered User regular
    Well, the 10-year/2-year "main" yield curve has inverted.

    One more warning sign on the pile.

    monikerFencingsaxMartini_PhilosopherBlackDragon480shrykeOghulkElldrenMill
  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    Polaritie wrote: »
    Well, that's easy. Just carpet bomb all of Europe and Asia and South America so nobody else has factories.

    ...You say you don't want WWIII? How else did you think we got the boom of the 50s?

    Except the effects of the move away from unskilled labor were already being felt in the 1950s. The demand for skilled tradesman increased while the demand for unskilled and semi-skilled labor started to decline. This screwed over black workers the most. Farm employment was falling, which caused problems for black workers who were in the South. The decreased demand for unskilled labor and especially less educated unskilled labor (which was true of more black workers than white workers thanks to racism) hurt the black workers in the North even if you pretend there wasn't a ton of racism. And a lot of unskilled jobs moved to suburbs that were hard for poor black workers to get to or live in because racism. And that was around the time when a lot of businesses started to move to the South to avoid unions that helped guarantee those jobs weren't awful.

    So of course white workers blamed the black workers and justified it because their immigrant forefathers could rise up despite being unskilled laborers.

    Bonus round: We villainized unions who were the chief source of training those tradesman style jobs and what's this now? We have a chronic shortage of tradesman? Who would have thought!

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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    Polaritie wrote: »
    Butters wrote: »
    schuss wrote: »
    Do they take pride in it? Sure,but there's a reason they've automated so much of it - it's uncomfortable, dangerous and absolutely relentless. Machines don't care how hot it is if engineered correctly, and can work 24/7.

    As a child of factory workers, I know that factory workers also take huge pride in saving enough money so their children don't have to live the lives they did.

    This also is not universal. Many electricians, mechanics, welders, pipe fitters, and heavy equipment operators are happy to see their children in similar jobs.

    Skilled trades are different from menial labor in a factory.

    Factories also require skilled tradesmen. In fact, increasingly so, as the jobs become more "maintain the robots."

    My father-in-law worked on industrial presses for most of his life, but with paper media dying he was pretty much looking at working for menu printing companies (which, also, are consolidating their operations) or finding new work. He ended up getting a BS in Engineering (he never had a degree), ended up co-teaching a course because he had 40+ years in field, and got a job at graduation with a major technology company building and maintaining their robot systems for large-scale warehouses.

    To do that whole thing, he had to have both time and support from the family to make it work, and he sacrificed pretty much all of his time, money, and energy for four years to make it happen. He's a remarkable man! But the number of 60+ folks willing to do what he did to stay relevant in the field are incredibly rare. He never wants to stop working, but most folks his age rightly expect some time of retirement in their later years rather than struggling with education and want at the end of their careers.

    That transition takes a lot of variables to be possible, and that's something most folks won't have.

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Taximes wrote: »
    Well, the 10-year/2-year "main" yield curve has inverted.

    One more warning sign on the pile.

    Yep. But even so the next recession is up to years away rather than imminent.

  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Taximes wrote: »
    Well, the 10-year/2-year "main" yield curve has inverted.

    One more warning sign on the pile.

    Yep. But even so the next recession is up to years away rather than imminent.

    Just in time to blame on democrats

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  • OrcaOrca Registered User regular
    edited August 14
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-2007-102034083.html
    Shortly after 6 a.m. ET on Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dipped below the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury as the 10-year fell 1 basis point below the 2-year. The yield curve inversion has a strong track record of predicting a recession; each of the last seven recessions (dating back to 1969) were preceded by the 10-year falling below the 2-year.

    Ahead of the last recession, the yield curve inverted briefly as early as December 27, 2005, about two years before the financial crisis sent the economy into recession.
    In an August 13 note, Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned that equity investors should not expect the stock market to turn sour immediately, as the S&P 500 has a tendency to experience a “last gasp rally” to a new peak after dipping.

    BAML points out that it can take between eight to 24 months for a recession to hit after the 2-year and 10-year curve inverts. They warned that an inverting yield curve means equities are on “borrowed time.”

    Signs are stacking up, but we could still be several years out.

    edit: lol beated.

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  • The SauceThe Sauce Fleur de Alys Registered User regular
    lol

    I work in steel manufacturing

    Sure there's a few maintenance personnel that get hot and dirty, and there's a couple parts of the mill where you have to operate equipment outside and other such rough things

    But the overwhelming majority of the employees sit in an air conditioned room and operate computers all day (or, in my case, program them)


    ...also I'm a progressive bi trans lady, so double lol at the macho stereotyping.

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  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    Is FRED (St Louis Fed) slow for anyone else? Is everyone looking at yield curves today? :)

  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    edited August 14
    The Sauce wrote: »
    lol

    I work in steel manufacturing

    Sure there's a few maintenance personnel that get hot and dirty, and there's a couple parts of the mill where you have to operate equipment outside and other such rough things

    But the overwhelming majority of the employees sit in an air conditioned room and operate computers all day (or, in my case, program them)


    ...also I'm a progressive bi trans lady, so double lol at the macho stereotyping.

    Exactly. the stereotype no longer matches up with reality at all.

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  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    I don’t know about yield curves but siri is spontaneously sending me notifications of the “you may want to check the DJIA” variety which is usually a bad sign... And yep it is.

    Fencingsax
  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    I'm not panicking about selling my house yet. But I'm also not not panicking about it.

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  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    It's fine. I'm sure the next recession is going to politely wait until there's a Democratic President in office that can take all the blame.

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    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
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